When the Twins acquired Carl Pavano in August of 2009, his fastball was averaging almost 91 miles per hour and he was striking out 16 percent of the batters he faced. In two seasons since, his velocity has dropped by two miles per hour and his K-rate has descended steadily, to 13 percent in 2010 and 11 percent in 2011.
Among qualifying major-league starters, only Brad Penny had a lower K/9 mark last year than Pavano's 4.1. A lack of whiffs isn't necessarily a death knell, especially when you can limit walks and homers, and Pavano's propensity for pitching to contact has helped him efficiently rack up 220 innings in consecutive years, but in order to succeed with this style a pitcher needs help from his defense and a certain measure of luck.
Last year Pavano didn't benefit much in those areas; nor did his staff mates, as the Twins finished with the worst defensive efficiency (converting batted balls into outs) in all of baseball. While the club's fielding is expected to improve this season, it would take a rather drastic turnaround for it to be considered a strength.
Pavano has been a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher in each of the past two years, so infield defense will likely be a key factor in his success. Around the diamond, the Twins will be relying on a third baseman who was repeatedly scolded for his passive defensive approach last year, a shortstop who's 38 and spent much of his career as a utility man, a mistake-prone second baseman with a reputation for losing focus, and a first baseman who's looked foggy in the field since being concussed.
In other words, if Pavano's strikeout rate continues to slide, it's a good bet that he'll once again rank among the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He may be able to overcome that and hold value as a serviceable innings eater, but it's not a label you want attached to your Opening Day starter and de facto No. 1.
The Twins have plenty of uncertainty in their 2012 rotation, so more than ever they'll be counting on Pavano -- whose 443 innings over the past two years lead all Twins pitchers by more than 100 -- to be that veteran rock. In order to to excel, it is essential that he take matters into his own hands and find a way to start missing a few more bats.
Showing posts with label pavano. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pavano. Show all posts
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Dangerous Gambles in the Rotation
Teams generally enter every season with a few question marks in the rotation. The Twins, unfortunately, look like they'll head into the 2012 campaign with five.
With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.
Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.
Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.
Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.
Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.
Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.
Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.
Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.
Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.
Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.
Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.
It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.
Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.
I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.
But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?
With each starter slated to occupy a spot in Minnesota's rotation, there is a fair amount of upside and also significant downside. At this point there's no way to know which versions of these various Jekyll-and-Hyde acts we'll be seeing, so all we can do is hope that the Twins can come up heads more often than tails as they seek to improve on a league-worst pitching performance in 2011.
Carl Pavano has officially been tabbed as Opening Day starter – an honor that he's earned since he's the only member of this unit who threw more than 150 innings last year. In 2010 he was a highly effective innings-eater and arguably the most valuable starter on a 94-win team. Last year his results were thoroughly mediocre as he allowed more hits than any other pitcher in the league.
Heads, he remembers how to miss a few extra bats and returns to the form he showed while winning 17 games two years ago. Tails, his performance continues to descend as he ages into his late 30s.
Francisco Liriano was stellar in 2010, picking up Cy Young votes while striking out 200 hitters and earning a Game 1 ALDS start. Last year his ERA never dropped below 4.59 as he battled injuries and control issues that plagued him right up until the end of the campaign.
Heads, he regains his fastball command and helps power the top of a solid rotation. Tails, the problems that haunted him in 2011 remain present, leading to continued inconsistency and frustration before the non-competitive Twins trade him for peanuts at the deadline.
Scott Baker is the only member of this bunch who actually took care of business in 2011, and naturally his season was cut short by persisting elbow problems. Though his first-half success made him a borderline All-Star, he threw only 24 innings after the break.
Heads, Baker finally shrugs off the arm troubles that have plagued him intermittently throughout the past two seasons to pile up 200 frames for the first time since 2009. Tails, his elbow keeps on barking and limits him once again, perhaps leading to surgery.
Nick Blackburn has been a reliable, mid-rotation workhorse when healthy, hurling 400 innings with a 4.04 ERA between 2008 and 2009. Sadly, he hasn't been able to stay healthy since, and recently underwent arm surgery for a second consecutive offseason.
Heads, Blackburn overcomes his flaws and serves as an average, yet valuable, anchor in the No. 4 spot. Tails, the hits keep on coming and he struggles to another shortened and substandard campaign.
Finally, Jason Marquis is the newcomer in this equation. If he repeated his 4.43 ERA posted with the Nats last year, he'd be a decent enough fifth starter. But a 4.55 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the course of a career that's been spent entirely in the inferior NL don't bode well.
Heads, Marquis proves to be a serviceable piece at the end of the rotation, perhaps until a better option emerges in the minors. Tails, he follows the path of former bargain bin veterans like Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Livan Hernandez, dropping before the season's halfway through.
It's not often that you see someone flip heads five times in a row, but it happens, and if these five could live up to their potential the Twins would boast a very respectable starting corps.
Unfortunately, these coins appear to be weighted, and not in a good way. Pavano is in the twilight of his career. Liriano had a discouraging run in winter ball. Baker hasn't really been healthy since '09, and neither has Blackburn. Marquis just ain't very good.
I rue the thought of the Twins pitching staff giving up 800-plus runs again this year, and I'm holding out hope that they can turn things around drastically. Given the talent present, it's certain possible.
But I wouldn't bet on those odds. Would you?
Thursday, August 04, 2011
Pavano and Blackburn: Contact Kings
Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn haven't had particularly memorable seasons up to this point, but at least they do find themselves atop the American League leader board in one category: hits allowed.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Pavano has yielded 168 knocks this season, more than any other AL hurler. Blackburn, with 158, comes in second.
Hey, it's something, right?
The rate at which these two pitchers have given up hits should come as no huge surprise, as both have been quite hittable throughout their respective careers. In 2009, Blackburn led the AL with 240 hits allowed while Pavano checked in third at 235. Last year, Pavano ranked fourth at 227 and Blackburn (limited to only 161 innings due to injury and a minor-league demotion) ranked 15th, allowing the same number of hits as Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez (194) in 88 fewer innings.
There's no mystery as to why Pavano and Blackburn are coughing up hits with such generosity. Pavano's 3.7 K/9 rate is the lowest in all of baseball, while Blackburn's rate of 4.8 (which would actually be the best of his career) is the ninth-worst in the AL.
The Twins continue to preach pitching to contact as if it's some generally desirable trait, but the truth is that exorbitant contact rates are these pitchers' greatest downfalls. It's exceedingly difficult to find sustained success while giving up hits at a higher clip than almost any other pitcher in baseball, and while Pavano and Blackburn ease their burden by limiting walks, it's difficult to expect anything better than back-of-the-rotation mediocrity unless they run through a prolonged period of good luck (as Pavano did through the first four months or so last year).
It's a rule of thumb in baseball that about 3 out of every 10 balls put in play will turn into a hit. In his eye-opening article for Baseball Nation yesterday, Jeff Sullivan found that, since 1970, even position players who have taken to the mound have registered a .296 BABIP.
By letting hitters put almost everything in play, you walk a dangerous line, and we've been reminded of that over these last several weeks. Since the start of July, Pavano owns a 6.87 ERA and Blackburn is at 7.45. These performances have contributed to a screeching halt in momentum for a rotation that looked spectacular in June.
Pavano and Blackburn have both certainly proven that they are capable of succeeding in spite of their heavy contact tendencies, but it should be intuitively obvious that it's not a reliable recipe for sustained success.
The two are under contract next year for a combined $13.25 million. It's more than likely that they'll once again be two of the most hittable pitchers in the majors.
You reap what you sow, I guess.
Monday, March 28, 2011
Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher
The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.
While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.
Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB
I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.
Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB
Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.
Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB
By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.
Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB
From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.
Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB
Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Three-Bagger: Pavano, Prospects & Antony
* Ron Gardenhire officially announced yesterday that he has Carl Pavano pegged as his Opening Day starter.
This led to some grumbling from fans who rightfully view Francisco Liriano as the superior arm, but I'm not too bothered by the news. It's possible that the Twins see Pavano as a better pitcher, but their decision to start Liriano in Game 1 of the ALDS last year would suggest otherwise.
More likely, this is a respectful nod to the veteran, akin to Gardenhire's decision to give Brad Radke the Opening Day start in 2005 right after Johan Santana won his first Cy Young Award.
It's also worth noting that Scott Baker was originally slated as the Twins' Opening Day starter in 2009 but missed the assignment due to injury (his replacement, coincidentally, was Liriano), so making this announcement six weeks away from the start of the season guarantees nothing.
* Baseball America released their annual ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball yesterday, and four players from the Twins organization made the list. Kyle Gibson was ranked 34th, with Aaron Hicks 45th, Miguel Sano 60th and Joe Benson rounding out the list at 100.
These placements fall in line with my Twins' preseason prospect rankings, where I had those four players ranked first, second, third and fifth, respectively. I did place Ben Revere one spot above Benson on my list, but there's certainly a good argument to be made the other way. Benson undoubtedly holds more upside, but Revere -- in my opinion -- has fewer hurdles to clear before making a positive impact in the majors.
* If you haven't already, make sure to swing by Twinkie Town and check out Jesse Lund's interview with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. Jesse did a great job with the questions, probing Antony about some of the team's more controversial moves of the offseason. While the answers weren't always fully satisfying, there's definitely some good insight to be gleaned about the organization's thought process.
Great work, Jesse.
This led to some grumbling from fans who rightfully view Francisco Liriano as the superior arm, but I'm not too bothered by the news. It's possible that the Twins see Pavano as a better pitcher, but their decision to start Liriano in Game 1 of the ALDS last year would suggest otherwise.
More likely, this is a respectful nod to the veteran, akin to Gardenhire's decision to give Brad Radke the Opening Day start in 2005 right after Johan Santana won his first Cy Young Award.
It's also worth noting that Scott Baker was originally slated as the Twins' Opening Day starter in 2009 but missed the assignment due to injury (his replacement, coincidentally, was Liriano), so making this announcement six weeks away from the start of the season guarantees nothing.
* Baseball America released their annual ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball yesterday, and four players from the Twins organization made the list. Kyle Gibson was ranked 34th, with Aaron Hicks 45th, Miguel Sano 60th and Joe Benson rounding out the list at 100.
These placements fall in line with my Twins' preseason prospect rankings, where I had those four players ranked first, second, third and fifth, respectively. I did place Ben Revere one spot above Benson on my list, but there's certainly a good argument to be made the other way. Benson undoubtedly holds more upside, but Revere -- in my opinion -- has fewer hurdles to clear before making a positive impact in the majors.
* If you haven't already, make sure to swing by Twinkie Town and check out Jesse Lund's interview with Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. Jesse did a great job with the questions, probing Antony about some of the team's more controversial moves of the offseason. While the answers weren't always fully satisfying, there's definitely some good insight to be gleaned about the organization's thought process.
Great work, Jesse.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Optimism vs. Pessimism
For several weeks now, the Twins and Carl Pavano have been reported by various to sources to be close to a deal. Yesterday, the two sides finally reached agreement on a two-year, $16.5 million contract.
People will see this deal how they want to see it.
The optimist will focus on Pavano's marvelous 2010 campaign, in which he won 17 games with a 3.75 ERA. The pessimist will recall that in 2009, Pavano posted a 5.10 ERA with very similar peripherals.
The optimist will point out how durable Pavano was last year, when he racked up 221 innings and seven complete games. The pessimist will note that the 35-year-old right-hander has a lengthy injury history -- 2010 marked just the third time in a 13-year career he's surpassed 200 innings.
The optimist will celebrate the Twins opening the wallet to re-sign a high-quality veteran player. The pessimist will bemoan the loss of two high draft picks that would have come to the organization had they allowed Pavano to sign elsewhere and opted for an inexpensive one-year deal with Brandon Webb, or Jeff Francis, or Chris Young, or a similar starter.
The optimist will marvel at what a great deal the Twins got on Pavano. He will average just $8.25 million over the next two seasons; that's an incredible bargain for a free agent pitcher coming off the kind of year he just had.
The pessimist will conclude that Pavano's willingness to settle for a relatively modest $16.5 million after all this time indicates that the rest of the league wanted nothing to do with him. Granted, his Type A status was an inhibitor, but teams will generally give up draft picks to sign a player they like. Pavano was the opposite of a hot commodity. Few teams openly expressed any interest in him and the general manager for one team that was connected to him through media reports felt the need to come out and publicly dispel those myths.
With Pavano joining Jim Thome, Matt Capps and others on a roster that is rapidly taking shape and will apparently feature very few new faces from outside the organization, the optimist will commend the Twins for trying to hold together as much of last year's 94-win club as their expanded payroll restrictions will allow.
The pessimist will wonder why they're simply concocting a weaker version of the same recipe that got them booted from the playoffs in three games last October.
Toward which side do you lean?
People will see this deal how they want to see it.
The optimist will focus on Pavano's marvelous 2010 campaign, in which he won 17 games with a 3.75 ERA. The pessimist will recall that in 2009, Pavano posted a 5.10 ERA with very similar peripherals.
The optimist will point out how durable Pavano was last year, when he racked up 221 innings and seven complete games. The pessimist will note that the 35-year-old right-hander has a lengthy injury history -- 2010 marked just the third time in a 13-year career he's surpassed 200 innings.
The optimist will celebrate the Twins opening the wallet to re-sign a high-quality veteran player. The pessimist will bemoan the loss of two high draft picks that would have come to the organization had they allowed Pavano to sign elsewhere and opted for an inexpensive one-year deal with Brandon Webb, or Jeff Francis, or Chris Young, or a similar starter.
The optimist will marvel at what a great deal the Twins got on Pavano. He will average just $8.25 million over the next two seasons; that's an incredible bargain for a free agent pitcher coming off the kind of year he just had.
The pessimist will conclude that Pavano's willingness to settle for a relatively modest $16.5 million after all this time indicates that the rest of the league wanted nothing to do with him. Granted, his Type A status was an inhibitor, but teams will generally give up draft picks to sign a player they like. Pavano was the opposite of a hot commodity. Few teams openly expressed any interest in him and the general manager for one team that was connected to him through media reports felt the need to come out and publicly dispel those myths.
With Pavano joining Jim Thome, Matt Capps and others on a roster that is rapidly taking shape and will apparently feature very few new faces from outside the organization, the optimist will commend the Twins for trying to hold together as much of last year's 94-win club as their expanded payroll restrictions will allow.
The pessimist will wonder why they're simply concocting a weaker version of the same recipe that got them booted from the playoffs in three games last October.
Toward which side do you lean?
Friday, January 07, 2011
Settling
Earlier this week, I remarked that a return to Minnesota for Carl Pavano was "beginning to seem all but inevitable." As such, I was hardly surprised last night when I read a report from Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com that the right-hander and the Twins are closing in on what sounds like a two-year deal.
That qualifies as settling for Pavano, at least in his mind. At the outset of the offseason, he and his agent were allegedly seeking a three-year deal, and given the dearth of strong starting pitching options in free agency behind Cliff Lee, it seemed feasible that he could manage that. As it turns out, though, teams around the league aren't keen on handing pricey multi-year deals to 35-year-old pitchers with troubling injury histories. Especially not when they have to give up a high draft pick to do so.
The Twins' arbitration offer to Pavano, a Type A, might have been his death knell. Because despite his solid results in 2010, the veteran has apparently drawn almost no interest from teams other than the Twins in free agency. Those with needs in their rotations have looked elsewhere. The general manager of the Nationals, who had been tied to Pavano through recent media reports, downplayed his team's interest earlier this week:
Nine million dollars isn't exactly the going rate for stud frontline starters, but it's a significant chunk of change for a team with a stretched budget. That figure would exceed the combined salaries next year for J.J. Hardy and Matt Guerrier, both of whom the Twins could have kept. At that price, the front office would be investing a lot of hope that Pavano can carry his success from 2010 forward into 2011 and 2012, at the ages of 35 and 36.
Unfortunately, there's not a lot of reason to believe he's got two more seasons like that in him. Only twice in his 13-year career has Pavano pitched at such a high level, and frankly the way he wrapped up his solid 2010 campaign serves as a perfect reminder of his downfalls.
Over 53 innings in his final eight regular-season starts, Pavano struck out only 20 hitters (good for a Blackburnian 3.4 K/9 rate) while allowing 70 hits and nine home runs. In his one postseason start against the Yankees, he yielded 10 hits and a homer while striking out only three of the 28 batters he faced.
The command is always going to be there for Pavano. He'll always limit walks and hit his spots. And when he's going good, he'll manage to keep the hits and home runs in check while missing a few bats. When he's not going good, like he was late last season and more frequently in a 2009 campaign where he posted a 5.10 ERA, he doesn't do those things. How often can we hope he'll be going good as he moves into his late 30s?
The Twins have watched several good players walk away this offseason, and now it's starting to look like they did it in order to make money available for this deal. It's a risky decision and one that could very easily backfire.
Then again, considering the lack of depth in this young rotation and the gamut of question marks surrounding the bullpen, maybe they had no choice. At the very least, Pavano should be able to eat up innings in bunches if he's healthy. That's the very least the Twins will need from him.
That qualifies as settling for Pavano, at least in his mind. At the outset of the offseason, he and his agent were allegedly seeking a three-year deal, and given the dearth of strong starting pitching options in free agency behind Cliff Lee, it seemed feasible that he could manage that. As it turns out, though, teams around the league aren't keen on handing pricey multi-year deals to 35-year-old pitchers with troubling injury histories. Especially not when they have to give up a high draft pick to do so.
The Twins' arbitration offer to Pavano, a Type A, might have been his death knell. Because despite his solid results in 2010, the veteran has apparently drawn almost no interest from teams other than the Twins in free agency. Those with needs in their rotations have looked elsewhere. The general manager of the Nationals, who had been tied to Pavano through recent media reports, downplayed his team's interest earlier this week:
"I hear we are 'the finalist' along with the Twins," said [Mike] Rizzo, acerbically. "We've never spoken to Pavano and we haven't talked to his agent since the winter meetings."The Twins never would have given Pavano three years, and rightfully so. For two, it sounds like they're willing to take the plunge. Fully analyzing this deal is impossible without hearing the financial terms, and it's possible those aren't even finalized -- Rosenthal only said the two sides were "closing in." My guess is that Pavano's salary will end up being around $9 million per year.
Nine million dollars isn't exactly the going rate for stud frontline starters, but it's a significant chunk of change for a team with a stretched budget. That figure would exceed the combined salaries next year for J.J. Hardy and Matt Guerrier, both of whom the Twins could have kept. At that price, the front office would be investing a lot of hope that Pavano can carry his success from 2010 forward into 2011 and 2012, at the ages of 35 and 36.
Unfortunately, there's not a lot of reason to believe he's got two more seasons like that in him. Only twice in his 13-year career has Pavano pitched at such a high level, and frankly the way he wrapped up his solid 2010 campaign serves as a perfect reminder of his downfalls.
Over 53 innings in his final eight regular-season starts, Pavano struck out only 20 hitters (good for a Blackburnian 3.4 K/9 rate) while allowing 70 hits and nine home runs. In his one postseason start against the Yankees, he yielded 10 hits and a homer while striking out only three of the 28 batters he faced.
The command is always going to be there for Pavano. He'll always limit walks and hit his spots. And when he's going good, he'll manage to keep the hits and home runs in check while missing a few bats. When he's not going good, like he was late last season and more frequently in a 2009 campaign where he posted a 5.10 ERA, he doesn't do those things. How often can we hope he'll be going good as he moves into his late 30s?
The Twins have watched several good players walk away this offseason, and now it's starting to look like they did it in order to make money available for this deal. It's a risky decision and one that could very easily backfire.
Then again, considering the lack of depth in this young rotation and the gamut of question marks surrounding the bullpen, maybe they had no choice. At the very least, Pavano should be able to eat up innings in bunches if he's healthy. That's the very least the Twins will need from him.
Monday, January 03, 2011
Three Bagger: Pavano, Thome & D-Lee
Apologies for the lack of updates here over the past two weeks. I decided to take a bit of a holiday respite, and fortunately the Twins made that easy by doing absolutely nothing. To get back into the groove, I'll touch on a few different subjects here in the first entry of 2011:
* Both Carl Pavano and the Twins are running out of options, so a return to Minnesota for the veteran right-hander is beginning to seem all but inevitable.
Since my last writing, Zack Greinke has been traded to the Brewers and Brandon Webb has signed with the Rangers. That's two potential destinations for Pavano effectively off the table, and also two potential rotation additions for the Twins erased. It's hard to believe that the team would enter the 2011 season with only five viable starting options -- none of them older than 29 -- so one would think a veteran acquisition has to be on the way. The Twins' patient approach has seen many potential options land elsewhere, so who else would they go with?
It's not hard to see why the front office would see fit to invest in Pavano. He was an ideal fit last year, personifying everything this organization loves in a veteran starter. He threw strikes, ate innings and greatly lessened the bullpen's burden.
But I'm wary of an expensive multi-year deal for Pavano. He turns 35 this week, and the fact that he's been healthy and durable over the past two seasons does not by any means ensure that he'll repeat it next year; especially not the year after. Let's not forget that two years ago Pavano was considered one of the most fragile pitchers in the league.
Even if he stays healthy Pavano could just as easily post the 5.10 ERA from 2009 as the 3.75 from 2010; the rest of his numbers weren't all that terribly different. I guess I just see a big contract for Pavano right now as buying high, especially when you consider that the Twins would be losing the high draft pick that would come to them should Pavano sign elsewhere.
A return to Minnesota for the mustachioed righty is starting to look highly probable, but I question the wisdom of investing so much in the hope that an aging player will be able to repeat a surprisingly excellent season. Which brings me to my next talking point...
* Jim Thome's name hasn't been bandied about much this offseason. After amazingly piecing together one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame carer at the age of 39, the slugger expressed interest at season's end in returning to the Twins. Given the uncertainty surrounding Justin Morneau and the tremendous popularity of Thome, the team would undoubtedly like to bring him back. It's just not clear how feasible that will be, as beat writer La Velle E. Neal III speculated this weekend that Thome's camp could be thinking "that it's time make up for what he didn't earn last season while he swats career homer No. 600 in a Twins uniform."
Thome is the definition of a luxury. He's a great hitter, even in the likely event that he regresses some from last season, and was perhaps the best value in baseball with his meager contract. Yet, a substantial pay raise (Neal noted in the aforementioned article that Thome's camp "raised its eyebrows" when Lance Berkman signed a one-year, $8 million deal with St. Louis) ups the ante. How much can Bill Smith really justify paying a 40-year-old part-time player who can't field a position and could succumb to his problematic back at any time?
* One intriguing alternative option for the Twins came off the table over the weekend, as Derrek Lee signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Orioles. While 2010 was a down season by the first baseman's standards, he still hit 19 home runs and posted a higher OPS than Michael Cuddyer. Over the ten years prior, Lee had posted an OPS of .820 or above in all of them and hit 20-plus homers in all but one. On top of all that, he is a right-handed hitter with great career numbers against lefties, and he's considered an outstanding fielder.
Seemingly, Lee would have been an ideal fit in Minnesota. As both an insurance policy at first base and a platoon partner for Jason Kubel at DH, you couldn't do much better. Now, Lee has signed with another team (the Orioles, no less, who seem intent on making my offseason as miserable as possible).
Perhaps he wasn't a feasible target. Maybe he refused to sign somewhere he wasn't guaranteed a starting job, and maybe the Twins don't have $8 million available in the budget. All I know is that operating under the assumption that Morneau is certain to return and play a full season would be foolhardy, and the Twins had better find a contingency plan that doesn't involve subjecting fans to a full year of Cuddyer as a regular starting first baseman and Kubel as a regular starting outfielder.
Thome doesn't do that.
* Both Carl Pavano and the Twins are running out of options, so a return to Minnesota for the veteran right-hander is beginning to seem all but inevitable.
Since my last writing, Zack Greinke has been traded to the Brewers and Brandon Webb has signed with the Rangers. That's two potential destinations for Pavano effectively off the table, and also two potential rotation additions for the Twins erased. It's hard to believe that the team would enter the 2011 season with only five viable starting options -- none of them older than 29 -- so one would think a veteran acquisition has to be on the way. The Twins' patient approach has seen many potential options land elsewhere, so who else would they go with?
It's not hard to see why the front office would see fit to invest in Pavano. He was an ideal fit last year, personifying everything this organization loves in a veteran starter. He threw strikes, ate innings and greatly lessened the bullpen's burden.
But I'm wary of an expensive multi-year deal for Pavano. He turns 35 this week, and the fact that he's been healthy and durable over the past two seasons does not by any means ensure that he'll repeat it next year; especially not the year after. Let's not forget that two years ago Pavano was considered one of the most fragile pitchers in the league.
Even if he stays healthy Pavano could just as easily post the 5.10 ERA from 2009 as the 3.75 from 2010; the rest of his numbers weren't all that terribly different. I guess I just see a big contract for Pavano right now as buying high, especially when you consider that the Twins would be losing the high draft pick that would come to them should Pavano sign elsewhere.
A return to Minnesota for the mustachioed righty is starting to look highly probable, but I question the wisdom of investing so much in the hope that an aging player will be able to repeat a surprisingly excellent season. Which brings me to my next talking point...
* Jim Thome's name hasn't been bandied about much this offseason. After amazingly piecing together one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame carer at the age of 39, the slugger expressed interest at season's end in returning to the Twins. Given the uncertainty surrounding Justin Morneau and the tremendous popularity of Thome, the team would undoubtedly like to bring him back. It's just not clear how feasible that will be, as beat writer La Velle E. Neal III speculated this weekend that Thome's camp could be thinking "that it's time make up for what he didn't earn last season while he swats career homer No. 600 in a Twins uniform."
Thome is the definition of a luxury. He's a great hitter, even in the likely event that he regresses some from last season, and was perhaps the best value in baseball with his meager contract. Yet, a substantial pay raise (Neal noted in the aforementioned article that Thome's camp "raised its eyebrows" when Lance Berkman signed a one-year, $8 million deal with St. Louis) ups the ante. How much can Bill Smith really justify paying a 40-year-old part-time player who can't field a position and could succumb to his problematic back at any time?
* One intriguing alternative option for the Twins came off the table over the weekend, as Derrek Lee signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Orioles. While 2010 was a down season by the first baseman's standards, he still hit 19 home runs and posted a higher OPS than Michael Cuddyer. Over the ten years prior, Lee had posted an OPS of .820 or above in all of them and hit 20-plus homers in all but one. On top of all that, he is a right-handed hitter with great career numbers against lefties, and he's considered an outstanding fielder.
Seemingly, Lee would have been an ideal fit in Minnesota. As both an insurance policy at first base and a platoon partner for Jason Kubel at DH, you couldn't do much better. Now, Lee has signed with another team (the Orioles, no less, who seem intent on making my offseason as miserable as possible).
Perhaps he wasn't a feasible target. Maybe he refused to sign somewhere he wasn't guaranteed a starting job, and maybe the Twins don't have $8 million available in the budget. All I know is that operating under the assumption that Morneau is certain to return and play a full season would be foolhardy, and the Twins had better find a contingency plan that doesn't involve subjecting fans to a full year of Cuddyer as a regular starting first baseman and Kubel as a regular starting outfielder.
Thome doesn't do that.
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
A Cursory Glance at Pavano's Potential Suitors
Last night marked the deadline for Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain to accept the Twins' arbitration offers. As expected, all three declined, meaning they will test the open market as free agents. Should they sign elsewhere, the Twins will be compensated with draft picks.
Any of the three can be brought back, but the Twins are unlikely to come out on top of a bidding war for Pavano or Crain -- both of whom are reportedly drawing a great deal of early interest -- and the team hasn't even pretended to have any real interest in bringing Hudson back.
By signing elsewhere, each of the three players would supply the Twins with an additional sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the 2011 draft. As a Type A, Pavano would also yield an additional pick. The placement of that draft pick is dependent on where Pavano ends up, so his eventual destination is well worth tracking.
The compensation system calls for the team signing Pavano to surrender their top pick. However, a number of first-round selections are protected (the first non-protected pick this year is the Tigers at No. 19, as this handy graphic illustrates); if a team with a protected first-rounder signs Pavano, the Twins would gain that team's second-round pick.
With this in mind, let's sort through a few of the clubs that have been rumored to have interest in employing Pavano and his illustrious mustache.
1. Nationals
Adam Kilgore, who covers the Nats for the Washington Post, tweeted yesterday that the team is in discussions with Pavano. After another dismal year, Washington is slotted to pick sixth in next year's draft so they're protected. The fact that they'd surrender only a second-rounder (which grow less and less valuable with each added supplemental pick) could make them a more likely destination than those teams with non-protected first-round picks. Teams like...
2. Rangers
The Rangers have become extremely aggressive in addressing their needs over the past year. They seem determined to try and bring back Cliff Lee, but if they're unable to do so Texas could turn to the best remaining option: Pavano. The Rangers' No. 26 pick in the 2011 draft is unprotected, but the departure of Lee -- a Type A -- would garner them two additional top picks and perhaps make that loss palatable.
3. Astros
Pavano's name was one of a handful that Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle tossed out as potential targets for the Astros, suggesting that the team may seek to bolster its appeal to potential buyers by adding some big names. The Astros pick 11th in the first round, so the Twins would receive their second-rounder.
The Marlins (14th pick, protected) were also rumored to be interested in Pavano, but they're likely out of the mix now that they've added Javier Vazquez. Same goes for the Rockies (20th pick, non-protected), who were in on Pavano before re-signing Jorge De La Rosa. That No. 20 pick would have been a great value for the Twins; it also would have been a very costly loss for Colorado, which may have played into their decision to bring back De La Rosa instead of pursuing Pavano.
With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, I'm sure we'll hear more and more rumors emerge regarding Pavano suitors. Twins fans can follow this storyline with great interest, and not just out of curiosity over whether the righty's stache will blend in with his uniform colors in 2011.
Any of the three can be brought back, but the Twins are unlikely to come out on top of a bidding war for Pavano or Crain -- both of whom are reportedly drawing a great deal of early interest -- and the team hasn't even pretended to have any real interest in bringing Hudson back.
By signing elsewhere, each of the three players would supply the Twins with an additional sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the 2011 draft. As a Type A, Pavano would also yield an additional pick. The placement of that draft pick is dependent on where Pavano ends up, so his eventual destination is well worth tracking.
The compensation system calls for the team signing Pavano to surrender their top pick. However, a number of first-round selections are protected (the first non-protected pick this year is the Tigers at No. 19, as this handy graphic illustrates); if a team with a protected first-rounder signs Pavano, the Twins would gain that team's second-round pick.
With this in mind, let's sort through a few of the clubs that have been rumored to have interest in employing Pavano and his illustrious mustache.
1. Nationals
Adam Kilgore, who covers the Nats for the Washington Post, tweeted yesterday that the team is in discussions with Pavano. After another dismal year, Washington is slotted to pick sixth in next year's draft so they're protected. The fact that they'd surrender only a second-rounder (which grow less and less valuable with each added supplemental pick) could make them a more likely destination than those teams with non-protected first-round picks. Teams like...
2. Rangers
The Rangers have become extremely aggressive in addressing their needs over the past year. They seem determined to try and bring back Cliff Lee, but if they're unable to do so Texas could turn to the best remaining option: Pavano. The Rangers' No. 26 pick in the 2011 draft is unprotected, but the departure of Lee -- a Type A -- would garner them two additional top picks and perhaps make that loss palatable.
3. Astros
Pavano's name was one of a handful that Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle tossed out as potential targets for the Astros, suggesting that the team may seek to bolster its appeal to potential buyers by adding some big names. The Astros pick 11th in the first round, so the Twins would receive their second-rounder.
The Marlins (14th pick, protected) were also rumored to be interested in Pavano, but they're likely out of the mix now that they've added Javier Vazquez. Same goes for the Rockies (20th pick, non-protected), who were in on Pavano before re-signing Jorge De La Rosa. That No. 20 pick would have been a great value for the Twins; it also would have been a very costly loss for Colorado, which may have played into their decision to bring back De La Rosa instead of pursuing Pavano.
With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, I'm sure we'll hear more and more rumors emerge regarding Pavano suitors. Twins fans can follow this storyline with great interest, and not just out of curiosity over whether the righty's stache will blend in with his uniform colors in 2011.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Twins Offer Arbitration to Pavano, Hudson, Crain
Yesterday marked the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to pending free agents in order to ensure draft pick compensation should those players sign elsewhere. Six departing Twins qualified as Type A or Type B free agents, and the team elected to offer arbitration to three of them: Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain. That means that Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch will officially be shopping their services in free agency.
It's tough to assess these moves without knowing which players will accept and how much the Twins plan on expanding payroll next year, but these are probably the very three candidates I would have extended arbitration offers to. Pavano is a Type A, Hudson and Crain Type B's, so the Twins stand to pick up a number of draft picks should all decline and sign elsewhere.
Of course, there's risk involved here. Should all three accept, the Twins would be committed to spending close to $20 million on them next year and would be left with almost no financial flexibility for the remainder of the offseason, barring another huge spike in payroll. That could mean the same team as last year, except with Alexi Casilla starting at short and cheaper options replacing Guerrier, Rauch, Fuentes and Thome.
Personally, I think it's a given that Pavano will decline. He's about to turn 35 and this represents his last chance to cash in with a multi-year deal. He probably won't make as much annually in such a contract as he would through arbitration, especially since he'll cost the team signing him a draft pick, but he knows his age and injury history as well as anyone so I have to think he'd like to avoid a one-year deal if he can. The right-hander has already reportedly drawn interest from several teams.
The other two are trickier calls.
Crain could look at the unusually deep free agent market and accept a one-year contract, hoping to put together another strong season and stand out as one of the top options next winter. That would result in a significant bump from his $2 million salary from 2010, but even at twice that price he's not a terrible investment. He was their best reliever this past season.
However, Crain has mentioned that he'd like to pursue a closing role next year, so there's also a good chance he declines and tries his luck in free agency. His age (29), combined with his 3.04 ERA and career-high strikeout rate, would make him an attractive option for clubs looking to strengthen their bullpens, and the contract former Rays setup man Joaquin Benoit got from the Tigers (three years, $16.5 million) could have Crain licking his chops.
Hudson would indisputably be the top free agent second baseman on the market, so it seems certain he'd be able to fetch a multi-year deal. Then again, it seemed certain he'd be able to get a multi-year deal last offseason, and the one before. For whatever reason, the league seems to have some aversion to him. He could accept the Twins' offer, jaded with free agency.
That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Even though he battled a number of injuries and his numbers dropped off late in the year, Hudson was a valuable piece for the Twins, providing competent offense in the two-hole while playing excellent defense. However, if the Twins can only afford one of Hudson and J.J. Hardy -- and that seems to be the case, since they've suggested that Casilla will be starting somewhere in 2011 -- it should be Hardy returning. Both have had a hard time staying healthy, but Hardy is four years younger and stands out more among peers at his position. He's a more valuable player.
But I don't think Hudson is going to accept arbitration, and I don't think the Twins would have extended the offer if they felt he would. Joe Christensen blogged recently on the second baseman, noting that "the writing is on the wall ... It looks like he'll be playing for his fourth team in four years in 2011."
The last day for Pavano, Crain and Hudson to accept arbitration offers is next Tuesday, November 30. My guess is that all three will opt for free agency, with Crain being the only one I could see going the other way. That would result in a nice flurry of extra draft picks for the Twins next June while leaving them with some cash to tinker with this offseason.
It's tough to assess these moves without knowing which players will accept and how much the Twins plan on expanding payroll next year, but these are probably the very three candidates I would have extended arbitration offers to. Pavano is a Type A, Hudson and Crain Type B's, so the Twins stand to pick up a number of draft picks should all decline and sign elsewhere.
Of course, there's risk involved here. Should all three accept, the Twins would be committed to spending close to $20 million on them next year and would be left with almost no financial flexibility for the remainder of the offseason, barring another huge spike in payroll. That could mean the same team as last year, except with Alexi Casilla starting at short and cheaper options replacing Guerrier, Rauch, Fuentes and Thome.
Personally, I think it's a given that Pavano will decline. He's about to turn 35 and this represents his last chance to cash in with a multi-year deal. He probably won't make as much annually in such a contract as he would through arbitration, especially since he'll cost the team signing him a draft pick, but he knows his age and injury history as well as anyone so I have to think he'd like to avoid a one-year deal if he can. The right-hander has already reportedly drawn interest from several teams.
The other two are trickier calls.
Crain could look at the unusually deep free agent market and accept a one-year contract, hoping to put together another strong season and stand out as one of the top options next winter. That would result in a significant bump from his $2 million salary from 2010, but even at twice that price he's not a terrible investment. He was their best reliever this past season.
However, Crain has mentioned that he'd like to pursue a closing role next year, so there's also a good chance he declines and tries his luck in free agency. His age (29), combined with his 3.04 ERA and career-high strikeout rate, would make him an attractive option for clubs looking to strengthen their bullpens, and the contract former Rays setup man Joaquin Benoit got from the Tigers (three years, $16.5 million) could have Crain licking his chops.
Hudson would indisputably be the top free agent second baseman on the market, so it seems certain he'd be able to fetch a multi-year deal. Then again, it seemed certain he'd be able to get a multi-year deal last offseason, and the one before. For whatever reason, the league seems to have some aversion to him. He could accept the Twins' offer, jaded with free agency.
That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Even though he battled a number of injuries and his numbers dropped off late in the year, Hudson was a valuable piece for the Twins, providing competent offense in the two-hole while playing excellent defense. However, if the Twins can only afford one of Hudson and J.J. Hardy -- and that seems to be the case, since they've suggested that Casilla will be starting somewhere in 2011 -- it should be Hardy returning. Both have had a hard time staying healthy, but Hardy is four years younger and stands out more among peers at his position. He's a more valuable player.
But I don't think Hudson is going to accept arbitration, and I don't think the Twins would have extended the offer if they felt he would. Joe Christensen blogged recently on the second baseman, noting that "the writing is on the wall ... It looks like he'll be playing for his fourth team in four years in 2011."
The last day for Pavano, Crain and Hudson to accept arbitration offers is next Tuesday, November 30. My guess is that all three will opt for free agency, with Crain being the only one I could see going the other way. That would result in a nice flurry of extra draft picks for the Twins next June while leaving them with some cash to tinker with this offseason.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Ready to Get Tangled in Webb?
In Wednesday's post, I suggested that the Twins might be wise to pursue a "low-cost reclamation project" to add depth to the rotation if they let Carl Pavano walk, specifically calling out Brandon Webb and Chris Young. Later that morning, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick made the following tweet:
Back in January of 2009, the Indians signed free agent Carl Pavano, who had pitched only 45 innings over the prior three seasons combined, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives. I loved the move from afar, opining that it was "what a low-risk veteran signing should look like." Pavano, once considered an elite starter, had been an epic free agent bust with the Yankees and needed to rectify his image. The Indians had a million and a half bucks to gamble on him.
As it turned out, the deal worked out well for both sides. Pavano scooted past his incentive milestones, tacking onto his salary significantly while setting himself up to earn far more in the ensuing years. The Indians and Twins, meanwhile, got 200 innings of solid veteran performance.
Webb is not so far removed from his prime years, and during them he was a better pitcher than Pavano ever has been. In 2006, Webb captured the NL Cy Young by going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 235 innings for the Diamondbacks. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in both 2007 and 2008.
On Opening Day of the 2009 season, Webb left after four innings due to soreness in his right shoulder. A few months later, he'd go under the knife, costing him the rest of his '09 season and all of 2010. Now, Webb is set to become a free agent and he's a major wild card. The right-hander reported that his fastball was only touching 81-83 mph in early October, but that's a long way from spring training and Webb was never a fireballer (during his best years, his heater only averaged 88 mph).
On a Pavano-type deal, Webb would almost certainly be a worthwhile investment. However, it's possible that the former Diamondback will have higher demands. He and his agent could seek a deal more similar to the one Ben Sheets inked with the A's last offseason. Sheets, who'd not pitched since 2008 due to his own shoulder issues, signed a one-year contract that guaranteed $10 million and contained $2 million in incentives.
That deal busted, as Sheets was thoroughly mediocre over 20 starts before suffering another major shoulder injury that will probably signify the end of his career. With this example fresh in mind, it's unlikely that any general manager will throw eight figures at Webb, but he could seek a one-year deal similar to the ones fellow injury concerns Rich Harden ($6.5 million plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($7.5 million plus incentives) signed prior to this season.
The nice thing for the Twins is that they have enough depth to take a gamble on Webb. They already have five potentially capable starters in Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Beyond that stable, they've got top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
If Webb fizzles, the Twins can probably sustain it from a competitive standpoint. The question is how much it would hurt them financially. He is still only 31 years old and prior to his injury he was one of baseball's premier workhorses, but no one can know what to expect in his first season back. I don't know exactly how much the Twins' payroll is going to increase this year and maybe they can afford to gamble at high stakes on Webb, but if he's demanding an amount that would severely restrict their other offseason moves, they'd have to be very confident his shoulder is good to go.
Webb, Jeff Francis & Chris Young attracting interest as comeback bets on 1-yr deals. Webb a potential fallback for Twins if Pavano leavesIf Crasnick has his sources straight, then this appears to be one of those decreasingly rare instances in which I find myself on the same wavelength as the Twins brass. Webb is shaping up to be a guy worth taking a flier on, but only under the right circumstances.
Back in January of 2009, the Indians signed free agent Carl Pavano, who had pitched only 45 innings over the prior three seasons combined, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives. I loved the move from afar, opining that it was "what a low-risk veteran signing should look like." Pavano, once considered an elite starter, had been an epic free agent bust with the Yankees and needed to rectify his image. The Indians had a million and a half bucks to gamble on him.
As it turned out, the deal worked out well for both sides. Pavano scooted past his incentive milestones, tacking onto his salary significantly while setting himself up to earn far more in the ensuing years. The Indians and Twins, meanwhile, got 200 innings of solid veteran performance.
Webb is not so far removed from his prime years, and during them he was a better pitcher than Pavano ever has been. In 2006, Webb captured the NL Cy Young by going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 235 innings for the Diamondbacks. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in both 2007 and 2008.
On Opening Day of the 2009 season, Webb left after four innings due to soreness in his right shoulder. A few months later, he'd go under the knife, costing him the rest of his '09 season and all of 2010. Now, Webb is set to become a free agent and he's a major wild card. The right-hander reported that his fastball was only touching 81-83 mph in early October, but that's a long way from spring training and Webb was never a fireballer (during his best years, his heater only averaged 88 mph).
On a Pavano-type deal, Webb would almost certainly be a worthwhile investment. However, it's possible that the former Diamondback will have higher demands. He and his agent could seek a deal more similar to the one Ben Sheets inked with the A's last offseason. Sheets, who'd not pitched since 2008 due to his own shoulder issues, signed a one-year contract that guaranteed $10 million and contained $2 million in incentives.
That deal busted, as Sheets was thoroughly mediocre over 20 starts before suffering another major shoulder injury that will probably signify the end of his career. With this example fresh in mind, it's unlikely that any general manager will throw eight figures at Webb, but he could seek a one-year deal similar to the ones fellow injury concerns Rich Harden ($6.5 million plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($7.5 million plus incentives) signed prior to this season.
The nice thing for the Twins is that they have enough depth to take a gamble on Webb. They already have five potentially capable starters in Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Beyond that stable, they've got top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
If Webb fizzles, the Twins can probably sustain it from a competitive standpoint. The question is how much it would hurt them financially. He is still only 31 years old and prior to his injury he was one of baseball's premier workhorses, but no one can know what to expect in his first season back. I don't know exactly how much the Twins' payroll is going to increase this year and maybe they can afford to gamble at high stakes on Webb, but if he's demanding an amount that would severely restrict their other offseason moves, they'd have to be very confident his shoulder is good to go.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Pavano Fulfilling His Veteran Promise
While the Twins have shown no aversion to filling their rotation with inexperienced younger talent, they have always held a pronounced affinity for possessing at least one starter who fits the "veteran innings-eater" mold.
Because their financial resources have been limited in the past, they've often been reduced to the bottom-of-the-barrel members of this category. The idea of paying Livan Hernandez or Ramon Ortiz a few million dollars to reliably pile up innings on an otherwise young staff is great in theory, but when those pitchers (predictably) perform so poorly that they become major liabilities the experiment has to be cut short.
That the Twins were willing to pay Carl Pavano $7 million to return this season despite his posting a 5.10 ERA last year speaks not only to their valuing him as that veteran innings-eater, but also to their seeing past his inflated ERA and realizing that he's a notch above the type of veteran starter they usually end up with. Not only does Pavano possess a durable arm capable of rattling off more than 200 innings, he's also effective enough to be an asset while pitching those frames. That sets him apart from the likes of Hernandez or Ortiz (or Sidney Ponson, or R.A. Dickey for that matter).
Whether or not you buy into the mythical importance having of a seasoned veteran providing leadership and consistency in a youthful rotation, Pavano delivered yesterday in exactly the way the Twins envisioned when they decided to offer arbitration during the offseason. After two young and relatively inexperienced starters were forced out very early over the first two games of a series in a tough opposing ballpark, Pavano faced off against one of the game's most dominant pitchers and delivered a masterful complete-game victory, relieving a beleaguered bullpen and salvaging a series that at one point looked completely lost.
Pavano has completed seven or more innings in 11 of his 14 starts this season and has accumulated more innings than all but four starters in the AL. It's no coincidence that he has factored into the decision each time he's pitched this season; he's routinely lasted deep into games and he has heavily impacted their outcomes. Talk about earning your paycheck. (That last sentence can be read with a not-so-slight tinge of irony by my friends who follow the Yankees.)
I don't know how valuable Pavano's performance has been as far as setting an example for the younger pitchers (considering that hideous mustache, I think I'd prefer the team's other starters not seek to emulate him), but it's been plenty valuable on its own as the 34-year-old righty has given the Twins a good chance to win nearly every time he's taken the mound. His outstanding production, alongside the steadily excellent Francisco Liriano, has helped to keep the Twins' rotation respectable in spite of up-to-this-point disappointing performances from its three other members.
Because their financial resources have been limited in the past, they've often been reduced to the bottom-of-the-barrel members of this category. The idea of paying Livan Hernandez or Ramon Ortiz a few million dollars to reliably pile up innings on an otherwise young staff is great in theory, but when those pitchers (predictably) perform so poorly that they become major liabilities the experiment has to be cut short.
That the Twins were willing to pay Carl Pavano $7 million to return this season despite his posting a 5.10 ERA last year speaks not only to their valuing him as that veteran innings-eater, but also to their seeing past his inflated ERA and realizing that he's a notch above the type of veteran starter they usually end up with. Not only does Pavano possess a durable arm capable of rattling off more than 200 innings, he's also effective enough to be an asset while pitching those frames. That sets him apart from the likes of Hernandez or Ortiz (or Sidney Ponson, or R.A. Dickey for that matter).
Whether or not you buy into the mythical importance having of a seasoned veteran providing leadership and consistency in a youthful rotation, Pavano delivered yesterday in exactly the way the Twins envisioned when they decided to offer arbitration during the offseason. After two young and relatively inexperienced starters were forced out very early over the first two games of a series in a tough opposing ballpark, Pavano faced off against one of the game's most dominant pitchers and delivered a masterful complete-game victory, relieving a beleaguered bullpen and salvaging a series that at one point looked completely lost.
Pavano has completed seven or more innings in 11 of his 14 starts this season and has accumulated more innings than all but four starters in the AL. It's no coincidence that he has factored into the decision each time he's pitched this season; he's routinely lasted deep into games and he has heavily impacted their outcomes. Talk about earning your paycheck. (That last sentence can be read with a not-so-slight tinge of irony by my friends who follow the Yankees.)
I don't know how valuable Pavano's performance has been as far as setting an example for the younger pitchers (considering that hideous mustache, I think I'd prefer the team's other starters not seek to emulate him), but it's been plenty valuable on its own as the 34-year-old righty has given the Twins a good chance to win nearly every time he's taken the mound. His outstanding production, alongside the steadily excellent Francisco Liriano, has helped to keep the Twins' rotation respectable in spite of up-to-this-point disappointing performances from its three other members.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Could Pavano Be a Bargain?
During the offseason, the Twins committed to retaining free agent Carl Pavano by offering him arbitration, which he accepted. Pavano took the offer because he knew he'd stand to make around $7 million and that was probably more than any free agent contract would pay him given that he'd finished the prior season with an ERA north of five.
Some Twins fans reacted with appall at the price tag for Pavano. At $7 million, he'd be making more than twice as much as anyone else in the rotation, and one would have a hard time arguing that he was the team's best starter. While he'd pitched some big games for the Twins down the stretch after being acquired from the Indians in August, there was no denying that his overall results on the season were ugly. He led the league in earned runs allowed and opposing hitters ran up a .294 average and .466 slugging percentage against him.
Now he was going to become the Twins' highest-paid starter, by a long shot. It's not the first time the right-hander has found himself locking into a controversial contract.
Following a 2004 season in which he won 18 games for the Marlins, Pavano signed a monster deal with the Yankees, one that would pay him $40 million over four seasons. The contract was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees, as Pavano battled injuries throughout his time in New York and totaled just 145 (below-average) innings over the life of the four-year deal. His name became a running joke in New York.
However, Pavano has been remarkably durable since signing his one-year make-good deal with the Indians prior to last season. He made 33 starts and piled up 200 innings last year, and he's been healthy and strong so far this year. What's even better are his results: Pavano is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He sports the league's best strikeout-to-walk ratio and has issued fewer walks than any other qualifying starter in baseball. Given that he's putting up almost the same numbers so far that he did in that 2004 season, one which made the Yankees deem him worthy of a mega-deal, $7 million could end up looking like a bargain. This isn't necessarily just a lucky surprise.
The smart observer did not look at Pavano's 2009 season and see a bad pitcher with a 5.10 ERA who was getting obscenely overpaid through arbitration. They saw a veteran pitcher who was plagued by bad luck but who did well with everything he had direct control over. He ranked fourth in the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio, joining elite hurlers Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and A.J. Burnett in the top five. He posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001, when he was 25. He showed increased velocity across the board. He pitched more innings in that one season than he did over his entire four-year stay in New York.
Few people seem to realize this, but Pavano is about six months less far removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery than Francisco Liriano. Given that Liriano seems to be rounding fully into shape about three years after the surgery, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Pavano can continue to pitch the way he did during his prime this season. Many are simply assuming Pavano's hot start is a mirage, and it's true that he'll always be susceptible to the occasional dud performance, but his supporting peripherals are encouraging and in my mind there's no reason the 34-year-old can't keep up at this pace.
If he does, that $7 million will look like money well spent.
Some Twins fans reacted with appall at the price tag for Pavano. At $7 million, he'd be making more than twice as much as anyone else in the rotation, and one would have a hard time arguing that he was the team's best starter. While he'd pitched some big games for the Twins down the stretch after being acquired from the Indians in August, there was no denying that his overall results on the season were ugly. He led the league in earned runs allowed and opposing hitters ran up a .294 average and .466 slugging percentage against him.
Now he was going to become the Twins' highest-paid starter, by a long shot. It's not the first time the right-hander has found himself locking into a controversial contract.
Following a 2004 season in which he won 18 games for the Marlins, Pavano signed a monster deal with the Yankees, one that would pay him $40 million over four seasons. The contract was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees, as Pavano battled injuries throughout his time in New York and totaled just 145 (below-average) innings over the life of the four-year deal. His name became a running joke in New York.
However, Pavano has been remarkably durable since signing his one-year make-good deal with the Indians prior to last season. He made 33 starts and piled up 200 innings last year, and he's been healthy and strong so far this year. What's even better are his results: Pavano is 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He sports the league's best strikeout-to-walk ratio and has issued fewer walks than any other qualifying starter in baseball. Given that he's putting up almost the same numbers so far that he did in that 2004 season, one which made the Yankees deem him worthy of a mega-deal, $7 million could end up looking like a bargain. This isn't necessarily just a lucky surprise.
The smart observer did not look at Pavano's 2009 season and see a bad pitcher with a 5.10 ERA who was getting obscenely overpaid through arbitration. They saw a veteran pitcher who was plagued by bad luck but who did well with everything he had direct control over. He ranked fourth in the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio, joining elite hurlers Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and A.J. Burnett in the top five. He posted his highest strikeout rate since 2001, when he was 25. He showed increased velocity across the board. He pitched more innings in that one season than he did over his entire four-year stay in New York.
Few people seem to realize this, but Pavano is about six months less far removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery than Francisco Liriano. Given that Liriano seems to be rounding fully into shape about three years after the surgery, it wouldn't be terribly surprising if Pavano can continue to pitch the way he did during his prime this season. Many are simply assuming Pavano's hot start is a mirage, and it's true that he'll always be susceptible to the occasional dud performance, but his supporting peripherals are encouraging and in my mind there's no reason the 34-year-old can't keep up at this pace.
If he does, that $7 million will look like money well spent.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Pavano Accepts Arbitration
Yesterday marked the deadline for Carl Pavano to decide whether to accept or decline the Twins' arbitration offer, and to my surprise he elected to accept, ensuring that the August acquisition will wear a Twins uniform once again in 2010.
Reports indicate that Pavano and his agent were seeking a multi-year deal from the Twins and other teams, but ultimately didn't get any bites. Rather than running the risk of being forced to settle for another incentive-laden deal with a low base, Pavano decided to make the one-year commitment to the Twins and will likely end up making around $7-$8 million next season.
I say I'm surprised by this outcome because Pavano signed a one-year make good deal last offseason with the Indians, and it seemed to me like he did make good. The historically injury-prone hurler racked up 200 innings without much issue while displaying elite control (his 1.76 BB/9 IP rate ranked second in the AL) and an ability to miss bats (solid 7.2 K/9 IP rate). He even finished his year by putting forth a dazzling performance on the national stage against an offensive powerhouse by holding the Yankees to two runs over seven innings in Game 3 of the ALDS.
My sense was that some pitching-starved club would view these promising signs as meriting a two-year deal, but apparently the past injury problems and the inflated ERA this past season were enough to scare away other general managers.
I have suggested in the past that the Twins bring him back on a two-year, $12 million pact. While such a deal would have likely entailed a lower annual base, retaining Pavano on a one-year commitment is preferable because his historical tendency to get hurt makes any multi-year guarantee a concerning risk.
I concluded about a month ago that "even though Pavano is merely a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, bringing him back should be a priority." The Twins now have him locked up for next year, and he should be able to combine with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to form a very competent 1-through-4 in the rotation. Pavano's relatively high price tag does, however, figure to limit the Twins' financial flexibility over the remainder of the offseason. We'll dig into that predicament later this week.
Reports indicate that Pavano and his agent were seeking a multi-year deal from the Twins and other teams, but ultimately didn't get any bites. Rather than running the risk of being forced to settle for another incentive-laden deal with a low base, Pavano decided to make the one-year commitment to the Twins and will likely end up making around $7-$8 million next season.
I say I'm surprised by this outcome because Pavano signed a one-year make good deal last offseason with the Indians, and it seemed to me like he did make good. The historically injury-prone hurler racked up 200 innings without much issue while displaying elite control (his 1.76 BB/9 IP rate ranked second in the AL) and an ability to miss bats (solid 7.2 K/9 IP rate). He even finished his year by putting forth a dazzling performance on the national stage against an offensive powerhouse by holding the Yankees to two runs over seven innings in Game 3 of the ALDS.
My sense was that some pitching-starved club would view these promising signs as meriting a two-year deal, but apparently the past injury problems and the inflated ERA this past season were enough to scare away other general managers.
I have suggested in the past that the Twins bring him back on a two-year, $12 million pact. While such a deal would have likely entailed a lower annual base, retaining Pavano on a one-year commitment is preferable because his historical tendency to get hurt makes any multi-year guarantee a concerning risk.
I concluded about a month ago that "even though Pavano is merely a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, bringing him back should be a priority." The Twins now have him locked up for next year, and he should be able to combine with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to form a very competent 1-through-4 in the rotation. Pavano's relatively high price tag does, however, figure to limit the Twins' financial flexibility over the remainder of the offseason. We'll dig into that predicament later this week.
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Catching Up
It's been quite around these parts lately, but frankly there just hasn't been a whole lot to write about. Let's quickly catch up on a couple Twins tidbits.
* A small blurb near the bottom of Charley Walters' Sunday column in the Pioneer Press reads as follows: "It's unclear what it will take for Joe Mauer to re-sign with the Twins before he can become a free agent after next season. A little birdie says, though, that any offer for fewer than seven years won't do it."
Now, it's worth noting that historically any statement in a Walters column that is sourced to "a little birdie" has often been a baseless fabrication, but the sentiment here seems to be on track. The Twins can't reasonably afford to pay Mauer the same annual salary that a team like New York or Boston might be able to, so odds are they will have to win him over with length. I suggested in the GM Handbook that the Twins sign Mauer to an eight-year, $150 million deal, which would essentially add up to a seven-year extension since my proposed contract tears up the end of his current deal and begins next season.
That might seem like an awfully lengthy deal, particularly for a catcher, but it's worth noting that Mauer would still only be 34 such a contract expired. There are few scenarios in which I can imagine the Twins would want to let Mauer leave before he reaches that age, and even in the event that he does begin to wear down as he reaches his mid-30s, I think that's something the Twins should be willing to stomach in return for locking up a likely Hall of Fame player during his prime years at a reduced cost.
* Speaking of Mauer, I'm guessing there are a number of female fans around this fine state that are wishing this would have happened to him rather than a division rival's studly marquis player.
* Doubtlessly any Twins fans who were forced to endure Chip Caray's awful play-by-play during Game 163 and the ALDS this year will surely be pleased with this news.
* I believe that last night marked the deadline for offering arbitration to free agency eligible players, but as I write this I've not yet heard whether or not the Twins offered to Carl Pavano. My assumption is that they did, since he's a Type B free agent and the reward of receiving a supplemental draft pick should he sign elsewhere more than outweighs the risk of having to pay him around $7 million on a one-year deal (which might not even really be a bad thing).
* I believe that last night marked the deadline for offering arbitration to free agency eligible players, but as I write this I've not yet heard whether or not the Twins offered to Carl Pavano. My assumption is that they did, since he's a Type B free agent and the reward of receiving a supplemental draft pick should he sign elsewhere more than outweighs the risk of having to pay him around $7 million on a one-year deal (which might not even really be a bad thing).
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Bringing Back Pavano
The Twins are currently amidst a two-week window of exclusive negotiating rights with internal free agents before the market opens on November 20. During that span, the team will have the opportunity to lock up Orlando Cabrera, Carl Pavano, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede and Ron Mahay before other teams can begin to make offers. From that group, we can already basically write a few names off. The trade for J.J. Hardy essentially closes the door on Cabrera, who will find offers to play shortstop elsewhere. Mahay is unlikely to return, with the bullpen picture for next season looking somewhat crowded as is. Redmond apparently wants to keep playing somewhere next year, but the smart money is against that team being the Twins. Crede could conceivably be brought back, but Bill Smith is almost certain to spend the winter months searching for better options before making a decision like that.
Which leaves us with Pavano. Smith has done nothing to hide his interest in retaining the veteran starter, who posted a 4.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts for the Twins after being acquired from the Indians on August 7. The notion of re-signing Pavano doesn't seem to raise a lot of excitement amongst fans, but re-upping his contract might prove be the team's most reasonable method of ensuring that a reliable veteran arm is present in the 2010 rotation.
Pavano's overall numbers this season understandably don't get people into a lather. In 33 starts split between Cleveland and Minnesota, he went 14-12 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.38 WHIP -- thoroughly mediocre numbers. However, there are a few things that make Pavano an intriguing bet for next season.
For one thing, underlying statistics suggest that Pavano pitched better than those base numbers would indicate. His xFIP for the season was 4.17. Compare that to Scott Baker (4.46), Kevin Slowey (4.46), Nick Blackburn (4.78), Francisco Liriano (4.78) and Brian Duensing (4.97). Pavano gave up a lot of hits this year, but his BABIP of .330 was 22 points higher than his career average and 31 points higher than the major league average. Should that figure drop next season, he figures to do a great job of limiting baserunners given his outstanding control.
That outstanding control is something that cannot be ignored when analyzing Pavano. He ranked second among all American League starters in walks per nine innings with a rate of 1.76. His K/BB ratio of 3.76 ranked fourth in the AL, with Cy Young contenders Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander the only starters to sport better marks.
Of course, Pavano doesn't fall into that Cy conversation because he's just more hittable than those other elite hurlers. That's always been the case with Pavano; he's not dominant. Like Baker and Slowey, he falls into the mold of quality starting pitchers who limit walks and post respectable strikeout rates but give up a fair number of hits and a fair number of home runs. Keeping Pavano does not solve the Twins' need for a dominating power pitcher at the top of the rotation. But solving that particular issue will be a lot more difficult than some seem to realize.
Given the Twins' budget constraints, signing a John Lackey in free agency is out of the question. So here are the three viable methods of attaining a power arm that can serve as the team's ace next season:
1) Trade for an established top-of-the-rotation starter, like Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson. These two names were mentioned by Joe Christensen in his Star Tribune article yesterday. Such a move would not be characteristic for this franchise, and I'm very skeptical as to whether they have the pieces to pull of a blockbuster trade of this magnitude anyway. Not likely.
2) Sign a high-risk/high-reward free agent starter with injury concerns, such as Rich Harden or Erik Bedard. Harden's name has been very popular among Twins fans, but what people need to realize is that plenty of clubs around the league need pitching help and the Twins aren't the only ones who are going to think to themselves, "Hey, Harden's value is probably down due to his injury concerns, maybe we can get a good deal on him!" I'm all for signing a high-upside pitcher one a make-good short-term deal, but many of these starters are going to end up signing for more than people think. And once you get beyond a certain point of guaranteed money, these types of signings just stop being a good risk for a team with the Twins' budget constraints.
3) Hope that Francisco Liriano regains his second-half 2008 form. Liriano is the only pitcher in the organization right now with a history of pitching up to the level of a bona fide big-league ace. Even as one of his biggest supporters, I have a hard time trusting him to return to top form any time soon after his disastrous 2009 campaign.
Relying on any of those three options is a major gamble. Pavano is a pretty safe bet, though. He seemed to put any injury concerns behind him this season by racking up nearly 200 innings of work without issue. He fits right into the Twins' strike-throwing mold and seemed to have a positive impact on the hometown club after coming over via trade. While I wouldn't put much stock into it, team officials may take note of the fact that the Twins' team ERA was 4.67 prior to Pavano's arrival and 4.15 after he joined the rotation. It also certainly doesn't hurt that he was absolutely dazzling in his ALDS start against the Yankees.
So, the only remaining question is one of price. Prior to this season, Pavano hadn't put together a full season at the major-league level since 2004, so last winter he was forced to settle for a make-good one-year deal (the kind described in Option No. 2 above) that guaranteed only $1.5 million. He ended up earning close to $5 million with incentives, and he'll surely be looking for a raise next year. In my offseason blueprint, I suggested that the Twins bring Pavano back on a two-year, $12 million deal, hoping that his desire to return to Minnesota and the comfort of a multi-year deal might convince him to settle for a relatively modest raise in salary. He could try venturing into free agency in search of a larger gurantee, but one healthy year doesn't erase all his past injury concerns, and the fact that his actual numbers weren't all that great should play against him.
In the aforementioned Star Tribune article, Christensen quoted Smith as saying "if there's a veteran starter or two that's a good fit for us, then we'll proceed accordingly," and concluded that the Twins' GM might be tipping his hand regarding his offseason priorities. Even though Pavano is merely a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, bringing him back should be a priority. Engaging in the difficult task of uncovering an ace with limited resources can come afterward.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Misperceptions
Any time a team acquires a new player with a remotely accomplished track record, the move seems to incite the fan base. So, when the Twins were rumored to be after free agent third baseman Joe Crede late in the offseason, I wasn't surprised to see numerous fans brimming with excitement over the possible signing. And when the Twins actually signed Crede, I wasn't surprised to see folks repeatedly pointing to his 2006 season and gushing about how much his powerful right-handed bat could help put the Twins over the top in the Central division. Similarly, the Twins' deadline trade for Orlando Cabrera was widely lauded by fans who noted that he was a two-time Gold Glove winner who has perennially played in October in recent years.
Surely, the media contributes to this sensationalized view of nearly any new player acquisition. Shortly after the Twins added Crede, the Star Tribune published an article proclaiming the signing as "low risk, All-Star reward," which is a little misleading to say the least, and other media outlets have falsely painted Cabrera's addition to the team as a charge that has rejuvenated the shortstop position and No. 2 spot in the lineup.
The troubling thing is that there a rumblings that the Twins may bring back at least one of these players for next year. A recent Star Tribune column noted that Cabrera "made a quick impression on the Twins after getting traded from Oakland on July 31, leaving some insiders saying the team should hurry and re-sign him to a two-year contract extension." That would be an immensely bad idea. The shortstop market will be thin this offseason, but the Twins need to find a better solution than committing to a 35-year-old Cabrera for even one more season. There had been some sentiment that the Twins might seek to bring back Crede on another one-year deal, but fortunately that seems to have been squashed by his latest ailment.
Interestingly, the acquisition that seemed to have drawn the littlest fanfare -- the signing of Carl Pavano -- has been by far the most beneficial to the club. If there's one impending free agent that the Twins should go out of their way to bring back next year, it's him.
Surely, the media contributes to this sensationalized view of nearly any new player acquisition. Shortly after the Twins added Crede, the Star Tribune published an article proclaiming the signing as "low risk, All-Star reward," which is a little misleading to say the least, and other media outlets have falsely painted Cabrera's addition to the team as a charge that has rejuvenated the shortstop position and No. 2 spot in the lineup.
Of course, Crede's been nowhere close to an All-Star and Cabrera has only added to the team's woes at the second spot in the batting order. Neither of these developments should come as any surprise. I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to downplay expectations for both Cabrera and Crede on this blog, and sure enough both have played almost exactly up to my expectations. Cabrera continues to show his age and has been a defensive liability (earning the deserved nickname "Caberror") while hitting just .261/.286/.394 since coming over from the A's. He has been an out machine in front of the league's best hitter. Speaking of out machines, Crede has broken down due to injuries for a third straight year and hasn't been very productive anyway, as his .229/.293/.421 hitting line with 15 home runs and 48 RBI puts him in position to finish the year with numbers almost identical to the unimpressive ones I projected in March (.255/.300/.425, 12 HR, 50 RBI).
The troubling thing is that there a rumblings that the Twins may bring back at least one of these players for next year. A recent Star Tribune column noted that Cabrera "made a quick impression on the Twins after getting traded from Oakland on July 31, leaving some insiders saying the team should hurry and re-sign him to a two-year contract extension." That would be an immensely bad idea. The shortstop market will be thin this offseason, but the Twins need to find a better solution than committing to a 35-year-old Cabrera for even one more season. There had been some sentiment that the Twins might seek to bring back Crede on another one-year deal, but fortunately that seems to have been squashed by his latest ailment.
Interestingly, the acquisition that seemed to have drawn the littlest fanfare -- the signing of Carl Pavano -- has been by far the most beneficial to the club. If there's one impending free agent that the Twins should go out of their way to bring back next year, it's him.
Saturday, August 08, 2009
Pavano
If there's one thing capable of prompting a Saturday post on this blog, it's a post-deadline waiver trade for a mediocre veteran starting pitcher. So let's get to it.
The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians yesterday in return for a player to be named later. The 33-year-old right-hander will add that ever-valuable veteran presence while jumping into the rotation and creating additional depth in what has become a paper-thin starting pitching corps. R.A. Dickey gets a one-way ticket to Rochester to create room on the 25-man roster.
First, I'll say that I actually don't mind Pavano. When the Indians signed him this offseason for $1.5 million plus incentives, I spoke rather glowingly of the move, giving the following brief analysis:
The relatively impressive peripherals don't change the fact that Pavano has been fairly hittable this year, and given the fact that he's 33 and has never been much better than average in his career (with the exception of a season or two), it's not likely that he'll step in and change the fortunes of the Twins rotation. What he does do is add much-needed depth to a pitching staff that was one more Glen Perkins shoulder flare-up or Francisco Liriano control meltdown away from turning to Kevin Mulvey as a starter. That in and of itself makes this a pretty good move, particularly when you consider that the Twins aren't likely to end up losing anything of much value in the deal. The PTBNL is probably conditional based on Pavano's performance, but will likely end up being an older farmhand whose chances of making a serious impact at the major-league level are minimal.
Now we turn to the predominant question at hand: who will Pavano replace in the rotation? It's almost certainly going to be one of the Twins' struggling lefty starters; Pavano will start tonight in place of Perkins, but Ron Gardenhire has stated that the team has yet to make a decision whether Liriano or Perkins will be the odd man out in the long run. Twins Geek seems to think Pavano replacing Liriano is a foregone conclusion, and Howard Sinker was strongly advocating for Liriano's dismissal from the rotation on his blog just the other day. I disagree with both of them. But that's a matter that I'll tackle another day -- probably Monday.
The Twins acquired Carl Pavano from the Indians yesterday in return for a player to be named later. The 33-year-old right-hander will add that ever-valuable veteran presence while jumping into the rotation and creating additional depth in what has become a paper-thin starting pitching corps. R.A. Dickey gets a one-way ticket to Rochester to create room on the 25-man roster.
First, I'll say that I actually don't mind Pavano. When the Indians signed him this offseason for $1.5 million plus incentives, I spoke rather glowingly of the move, giving the following brief analysis:
I’m not a big fan of Pavano, but he’s 33 years old and has a history of pitching well. If he stays healthy, he can probably [be] counted on for close to league average production; if he doesn’t stay healthy, the Indians aren’t on the hook for much money at all. This is what a low-risk veteran signing should look like. When you hear complaints about the Twins handing $5 million to Livan Hernandez and $3 million to Ramon Ortiz, this is why.Pavano has indeed stayed relatively healthy, and while his production up to this point doesn't look all that good at a glance (9-8 record, 5.37 ERA), it's worth noting that he has performed better than his results would indicate. The mention of Hernandez in the above quote seems apt, since I would basically describe this year's version of Pavano as a rich man's Livan. He has given up a lot of hits and home runs (.299 BAA with 19 HR allowed in 125 2/3 innings) but he actually hurls a respectable fastball which averages over 90 mph, and he has posted a solid 88-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio while limiting baserunners to a large degree thanks to his quality control. His 4.15 xFIP suggests that if he keeps pitching the way he has up to this point, he'll probably be good for an ERA lower than 5.37 from here on out.
The relatively impressive peripherals don't change the fact that Pavano has been fairly hittable this year, and given the fact that he's 33 and has never been much better than average in his career (with the exception of a season or two), it's not likely that he'll step in and change the fortunes of the Twins rotation. What he does do is add much-needed depth to a pitching staff that was one more Glen Perkins shoulder flare-up or Francisco Liriano control meltdown away from turning to Kevin Mulvey as a starter. That in and of itself makes this a pretty good move, particularly when you consider that the Twins aren't likely to end up losing anything of much value in the deal. The PTBNL is probably conditional based on Pavano's performance, but will likely end up being an older farmhand whose chances of making a serious impact at the major-league level are minimal.
Now we turn to the predominant question at hand: who will Pavano replace in the rotation? It's almost certainly going to be one of the Twins' struggling lefty starters; Pavano will start tonight in place of Perkins, but Ron Gardenhire has stated that the team has yet to make a decision whether Liriano or Perkins will be the odd man out in the long run. Twins Geek seems to think Pavano replacing Liriano is a foregone conclusion, and Howard Sinker was strongly advocating for Liriano's dismissal from the rotation on his blog just the other day. I disagree with both of them. But that's a matter that I'll tackle another day -- probably Monday.
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