Eyes on Diamond

Much uncertainty surrounds the Twins pitching staff at this point. Unless Carl Pavano or another starter is added, the organization lacks any proven rotation options beyond their starting five, which is a frightening proposition given that three of them are coming off seasons marred by elbow issues. The bullpen possesses even less stability.

It's possible that more players will be added to both of those units via free agency or trade, but money is short so the coaching staff is going to have to get creative in trying to assemble pitching depth. This reality increases the likelihood that the team's selection in the Rule 5, Scott Diamond.

Diamond is a 24-year-old left-hander fished out of the Braves organization, where he went 8-7 with a 3.46 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010. Though he went undrafted, Diamond has carved out a nice minor-league career thus far, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while rising steadily through Atlanta's farm system. He's never never posted an ERA higher than 3.52 at any level and has turned in respectable strikeout and walk rates with consistency. He's also allowed only 19 home runs in 442 professional innings, suggesting proficiency with keeping the ball down.

The shiny stats might have some fans raising their eyebrows. Recalling the team's past success with a certain left-hander acquired in the Rule 5, these intrigued might be wondering if the Twins have found (in what is almost certain to become a horribly overused cliche) a diamond in the rough. Is excitement warranted?

 I've heard that the Twins were pleasantly surprised that they were able to get Diamond, and that his chances of making the 25-man roster (where he'll have to stick all season, or be returned to Atlanta) are quite good. Obviously they've had some success scouting undervalued players from other organizations in the past, so there's some cause for optimism.

Then again, there's a reason Diamond wasn't selected by any club in MLB's massive draft, there's a reason the Braves made him available in the Rule 5, and there's a reason that many teams passed on him there (Diamond was the the 12th player selected). Peter Hjort, who covers the Braves for the Sweet Spot affiliated Capitol Avenue Club blog, ranked Diamond as the organization's 39th best prospect at season's end, summarizing him thusly:

Scott Diamond went undrafted in 2008, but the Braves signed him shortly thereafter and he’s been a durable, mostly effective starter in their system ever since. Employing an unspectacular, kitchen-sink repertoire–a 86-90 MPH fastball, cutter, change-up, and curveball–with solid command and pitchability, Diamond has produced a 7.3 K/9, a 3.0 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 442 and 1/3 minor-league innings. He’ll return to Class AAA Gwinnett at the onset of the 2011 season, but if the Braves need another lefty-specialist or their rotation plans fall apart, Diamond could get a look.

Well, he doesn't exactly sound like Johan Santana. But the Twins would settle for a decent strike-throwing southpaw who can provide some solid depth in the upcoming season, and when your competition is Glen Perkins it's not hard to stand out. Unless he really fails to impress in spring training, I'm guessing Diamond will find himself on the club's Opening Day roster.

Barring an injury, Diamond probably doesn't have a real good shot at grabbing a spot in the rotation over any of the five established members (especially if Pavano re-signs). Throwing him into the bullpen would require some adjustment, as Diamond worked almost exclusively as a starter in the minors (74 of his 76 career appearances have been starts), but the Twins transitioned Brian Duesning from minor-league starter to major-league reliever on the fly with good results, and there's little reason to think they wouldn't try it here with bullpen depth a pressing concern.

If the Twins find that they like Diamond in spring training but don't feel he's quite ready for a full season in the bigs, they could always swing a trade with Atlanta to keep him in the organization. With so many relief spots unclaimed, however, I suspect they'll be more willing than usual to take the plunge and keep him on the 25-man roster for the duration of the season.

As a kid from Canada who was overlooked by every team in the draft, and overlooked even by the organization that signed and raised him this winter, Diamond has plenty to prove.

A Test in Texas

The Twins' impressive late-summer run, which has seen them go 26-10 since the All-Star break, has largely been keyed by strong starting pitching. After posting a 4.60 ERA and surrendering 68 homers in 88 games prior to the Midsummer Classic, Twins starters have been good for a 3.38 ERA with only 14 homers allowed in 36 games since the season's unofficial midpoint.

That improvement can be a bit misleading, since the Twins have played 19 of those 36 games against the Orioles, Royals, Indians and Athletics -- the four lowest-scoring offenses in the American League. Other games have come against a sub-.500 Angels squad and a White Sox team that was in the thick of the division race up until recently but is spiraling and dropped two of three to the Royals over the weekend.

Indeed, it appears that the only playoff-caliber team the Twins have faced during their impressive post-All-Star stretch has been the Rays, in a series where the Twins' pitching staff had its share of both highs and lows.

Tonight, the Twins will finally get another legitimate test as they head into Arlington to face the AL West leading Rangers. This series poses a number of challenges that should tell us a lot about how both clubs might potentially fare in an October series.

The Twins will have their pitching depth tested right away tonight, as they send Nick Blackburn to the hill to take on the American League's fourth highest scoring offense. Blackburn was, of course, an utter disaster over the first half of the season with the Twins, but he did post a 2.49 ERA and 65 percent grounder rate during his four-start stint in the minors. How will those numbers translate to the bigs, where Blackburn will be taking on a division-leading club led by MVP front-runner Josh Hamilton?

While Blackburn's results will be interesting and meaningful, especially if Kevin Slowey's elbow injury turns out to be a long-term concern, the remainder of the series will provide a better glimpse into a potential postseason match-up, as the Twins will send out Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano on Tuesday and Thursday. Brian Duensing, who starts between the two on Wednesday, is looking increasingly likely to grab a spot in a playoff rotation as well based on recent performance.

Given that both struggled in their last turns on the hill, I'll be interested to see how Pavano and Liriano rebound. The spotlight will shine brightly on Liriano, who was originally scheduled to start tonight but had his turn pushed back due to a bout with dead arm. He must show improved command to restore confidence that has begun to wane with three straight erratic outings. He's got his work cut out for him, as he's scheduled to face Cliff Lee on Thursday.

Of particular interest, for me, will be seeing how the Twins' top two starters handle Texas runners on the base paths. Pavano's complete inability to stop opposing base runners from swiping bags has been perhaps his greatest downfall in what has otherwise been a stellar campaign. Opponents are 28-for-34 on stolen bases against Pavano in 25 starts. Liriano hasn't been quite as bad, as he's only allowed 10 steals on 13 chances, but he did allow Juan Pierre to steal second without a throw twice in his last start.

The Rangers rank fifth in the AL in stolen bases. The Rays rank first. If they want to win in October, the Twins must prove that they can control the running game. So far, they've not been able to do that very well even with their best pitchers on the mound and their Gold Glove catcher behind the plate.

Not So Fast

The Twins won in dramatic fashion last night, with Delmon Young singling in Michael Cuddyer as the winning run in the bottom of the ninth for a walk-off 7-6 victory. The win was fifth in a row for the Twins, setting a season-high, and with the White Sox losing the hometown nine pulled into a tie for a second place just 4 1/2 games behind the division-leading Tigers with nearly six weeks remaining in the season.

But, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

While last night's win was impressive, it came against a last-place team with a rookie pitcher on the hill. And while the Twins have excelled recently, it almost seemed like they were bound to go on a decent run at some point after the horrific stretch of baseball they had endured through the earlier part of August. These things always seem to even out.

It's good to see the Twins getting back on the winning track, but realistically the odds are still stacked heavily against their continuing on such a run with the group of pitchers they currently possess. Just take a look at the hurlers the Twins threw out last night prior to Jose Mijares' eighth inning: Armando Gabino (13.50 ERA), Philip Humber (9.00 ERA), Bobby Keppel (5.31 ERA) and Jesse Crain (6.55 ERA). Toss in Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing, and you've got a pitching staff that consists almost overwhelmingly of minor-league quality pitchers. While this group has been able to grind out some victories as of late -- with support from a truly outstanding offensive unit -- I fail to see how they'll be able to scratch out enough victories down the stretch to overcome the Tigers. Unless Francisco Liriano can find his arm strength and Boof Bonser can make some sort of miraculous late-season impact, this pitching staff just isn't good enough to win the AL Central. Period.

That might seem like a downer after an exhilarating walk-off victory, and I don't mean to downplay the Twins' recent success. But that 4 1/2 game gap in the standings is a lot bigger than it looks, and will be as long as the Twins continue to carry a pitching staff that isn't even half big-league caliber.

A Steep Hill to Climb

When I left town on Thursday, the Twins were riding a four-game winning streak and were involved in numerous trade rumors. There was a prevailing sense of optimism amongst fans; the Twins were closing the gap in the division and it seemed that with a wise move or two, Bill Smith might be able to give them the boost they'd need to overcome the Tigers and White Sox.

Four days later, things are very different indeed. The Twins' sole deadline acquisition came in the form of Orlando Cabrera, and the team responded to the trade by being absolutely thumped in a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels.

I'll address the Cabrera trade first. If you've read my post from last October about the possibility of signing Cabrera as a free agent or last Thursday's post that addressed the notion of trading for him at the deadline, you can probably guess that I'm not overly enthused about this trade. Cabrera isn't much of a hitter and it seems clear that his once-strong defensive skills have deteriorated as he's aged into his mid-30s. While Cabrera is a competent offensive player who is certainly capable of providing better production than Nick Punto, his playing time is likely to come more at the expense of Brendan Harris, who is a pretty similar hitter. All in all, Cabrera is likely to provide a marginal upgrade at best.

With that being said, I don't mind the move. My opposition to signing Cabrera during the offseason stemmed from the notion that he'd be able to land an expensive multi-year deal (which he didn't). My opposition to trading for him this past week stemmed from the notion that he'd command a valuable return -- after all, there were rumors that the A's were seeking Danny Valencia in return for their shortstop. Ultimately, Cabrera cost the Twins Tyler Ladendorf, a shortstop acquired in the second round of last year's draft. And while Ladendorf is an intriguing prospect whose absence cripples the organization's already thin minor-league middle-infield depth, he's a long ways away from contributing at the major-league level, and has enough flaws that there's a pretty good chance he never will.

Also, while Cabrera might be essentially equal to Harris from both an offensive and defensive standpoint at this juncture, Ron Gardenhire will actually play Cabrera. So he is an upgrade, even if the Twins have an in-house option who could seemingly make the same impact. Cabrera's arrival likely signals the end of the disastrous Punto/Casilla middle-infield combination that had been written into the starting lineup far too often as of late, and also slides Punto over to a position where I feel he is much stronger defensively. So, while I don't feel that Cabrera is a particularly good player at this stage, the domino effect from his acquisition should make the Twins a better club. But, as I said, only marginally so.

And unfortunately, the areas that Cabrera is impacting aren't the ones that were likely to prevent the Twins from being able to make the playoffs. As I suggested in Thursday's post, pitching is the area that has become a cardinal issue for the Twins, and that was made abundantly clear during this weekend's series in which the Twins allowed 35 runs over three games in a trio of blowout losses. At this point, it seems that no one other than Scott Baker can be remotely relied upon for a Quality Start. The bullpen continues to struggle with only three trustworthy late-inning arms, and Smith's inability to add an extra reliever with eighth-inning ability will likely force Gardenhire to once again lean too heavily on Matt Guerrier, with potentially terrible consequences.

I'm fine with Smith's addition of Cabrera, given the low cost and the fairly good chance that the move appeased some unrest within the clubhouse over this front office's lack of action. Yet, Cabrera's addition isn't likely to have a particularly large impact; certainly not as large as the additions made by the Twins' two competitors in this division. For better or for worse, the Twins will probably go forward with the pitching options that they currently have in their organization, and right now that's looking like a pretty glum path to tread.

If Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins can all get back on track to some degree while Jesse Crain emerges as a legitimate consistent late-innings option and at least one other reliever -- either on the current roster or in the minors -- can step in and make some key outs, the Twins might have a chance at taking this division and making a splash in the postseason. Short of all those things occurring, I really don't think they have much of a chance. I'm certainly not the type to declare a season over with two months remaining, but it's tough to be optimistic about the Twins' chances right now. Even with Orlando Cabrera.

Road Weary

The Twins have gone 5-0 in games that I've personally attended this year. Given that all those games have been at the Metrodome, this isn't totally surprising; the Twins have posted an excellent 20-11 record at home up to this point. 

This month, I'll be hitting the road to catch three Twins games: at Wrigley Field next weekend and then in St. Louis and Kansas City at the end of the month. I'm more than a little concerned that the team's winning streak in games where I'm present will be coming to an end soon.

With a 6-16 record away from home, the Twins have been the worst road team in all of baseball. At home, they've hit .278/.356/.447; on the road, .263/.335/.406. That's a disparity, but not an unreasonable one. Where the team has really struggled on the road is in the pitching department. Twins pitchers have allowed an OPS 82 points higher on the road than at home, and have posted a 4.53 ERA at the Metrodome compared to a 5.16 ERA outside of it. Last year, the split was even more dramatic (3.27 home ERA, 5.12 road).

The difference in the Twins' play at home versus on the road has been evident recently. The Twins shook off a tough losing streak by winning five of seven games during their last homestand; then, they hit the road and looked completely flat in their first two games in Tampa. They managed to salvage a win in the final game of that three game series against the Rays on Sunday (their first victory in 11 tries in the stadium of an AL East club), but certainly didn't make it look easy.

The team's struggles away from home are particularly troubling since the Twins will embark on a 10-game road trip after finishing up their current series with the Indians. Then, after playing six interleague games at the Dome, they'll hit the road for a nine-game stint. With 19 of their next 26 games set to be played on the road, the Twins will be in dire straights at the end of June if they can't play much better ball in opposing stadiums.

In a Dugout Splinters article for MN GameDay earlier this season, I wrote that maintaining their quality play at home would be key for the Twins if they hope to conquer the AL Central this season. I think I was off-the-mark. Strong play at home has essentially become a given for this ballclub; the more pressing need is that they find a way to win some games on the road. Because, if they can't, they simply don't stand a chance.

Growing Leery

Coming into this season, expectations were high for Francisco Liriano. Last year, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, his early struggles were perfectly excusable given that he'd missed a full season and was learning to pitch with a reconstructed ligament in his elbow. After a brief (and brutal) early-season stint with the Twins, Liriano went back to Triple-A, where he eventually went on an impressive tear, earning a recall and subsequently becoming one of the American League's best pitchers in the second half. While he wasn't quite the dominator we came to love in 2006, Liriano appeared to have everything figured out in the second half last year, when he went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 60-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 65 2/3 innings. We had every reason to believe he'd be an anchor in the Twins' 2009 rotation.

Yet, that hasn't happened. Through 10 starts, Liriano is 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. And it's awfully tough to pinpoint the source of his struggles.

Liriano's projected partner at the top of the Twins' rotation, Scott Baker, got his season off to a rather horrid start as well. Yet, Baker missed much of spring training with a shoulder injury, so his early struggles at least excusable, particularly considering that he now seems to pulling things together. For Liriano, we're running out of explanations. As much as one would like to pass off his poor performance as a slow start, we're now almost two months of the season and he's shown no real signs of getting things turned around as his last two starts have been among his worst. Liriano's slider has looked good and he's still missing bats at a reasonable rate, but he's giving up too many hits, issuing too many walks and coughing up way too many homers. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of his performance is that he's shown no signs of returning to the ground ball machine he once was; quite the contrary. His 36.1 percent GB rate this year ranks him among the most fly ball heavy pitchers in the league.

Liriano's problems don't seem to stem from a lack of "stuff," his pitch speed averages are all actually up a tick from last year and anyone who's watched him pitch will likely agree that his slider has looked nasty at times. He's struggled with his command a bit, but even that does not fully explain his ineffectiveness; in his last start, he surrendered five runs on 11 hits over four innings without issuing a walk.

Being that we're this deep into the season and Liriano is essentially the biggest concern in the rotation, it's natural for fans to wonder whether he should be demoted -- either to the bullpen or Triple-A. One might note that a trip down Rochester got Liriano on track last year and led to his outstanding second half. My personal opinion is that the best course of action at present is for Liriano to stay in the rotation and keep working with Rick Anderson. Hopefully they can work together and solve the problems that are dragging down his performance. There's no denying, though, that if these issues persist for much longer, the Twins will have to make a move.

It may already be too late for Liriano to achieve the types of numbers we'd hoped to see from him this season. Yet, if he can find a groove and get going on a hot streak -- as he's done many times in the past -- he can still be a driving force in this team's success. Let's hope he can get things figured out.

Holding Their Own

On August 4, the Twins built an early six-run lead against the Mariners, only to watch their opponents score 10 times in the seventh inning to take an 11-6 lead, which ended up being the final score in a disappointing loss. Since that game, the Twins have gone 15-10. That's pretty good. A lot of those wins have been lopsided, but that certainly has not seemed to be the case with the losses, has it?

Let's take a closer look at each of those 10 losses...

Aug. 5: 8-7 loss to Mariners
The Twins led 7-6 entering the bottom of the eighth inning before the Mariners rallied for a pair of runs against Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan to take the lead.

Aug. 10: 5-4 loss to Royals
The Twins led 4-2 entering the bottom of the eighth inning before the Royals rallied for a pair of runs against Guerrier and Dennys Reyes to tie the game. The Royals eventually won in the 12th inning on a Tony Pena RBI single off Craig Breslow.

Aug. 12: 9-6 loss to Yankees
Twins trail late, but get a big three-run homer from Delmon Young in the bottom of the eighth to tie the game and send it to extra innings. Eventually the Yankees to Guerrier in the 12th inning with a pair of homers.

Aug. 18: 3-2 loss to Athletics
Twins trail 3-0 in the eighth inning, but cut the deficit down to one when Joe Mauer hits an RBI triple and scores on a throwing error. Unfortunately the Twins' rally ends there and they come up a run short.

Aug. 23: 7-5 loss to Angels
Twins fall behind 6-1 early on, but battle back with a four-run fifth inning to close the gap to one. Once again, their rally comes short and the Angels add another run to claim a two-run victory.

Aug. 24: 5-3 loss to Angels
Twins claim early 3-0 lead, but the Angels score five unanswered runs over their final three innings, three of those against the Twins' bullpen.

Aug. 25: 4-2 loss to Mariners
Twins lead 2-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, but the Mariners rally for a run against Joe Nathan to tie the game and eventually win on Adrian Beltre's 11th-inning two-run homer off Jesse Crain.

Aug. 26: 3-2 loss to Mariners
Twins fall behind by two runs early on, but battle back to tie the game in the sixth, only to have Scott Baker give away the lead in the next half inning. Mariners hold on to win by a run.

Aug. 28: 3-2 loss to Athletics
Game is tied at 2-2 entering bottom of the ninth, but the A's are able to manufacture a game-winning run against Breslow and Crain.

Aug. 30: 3-2 loss to Athletics
Twins lead 2-1 entering bottom of the ninth, but the A's put a pair of runners on against Nathan with no outs. When Ryan Sweeney tries to bunt the runners over, Nathan attempts a throw to third that sails into left field, allowing both runs to score and giving the A's a win.

So what do these losses tell us? Well, obviously, we see that the bullpen has a lost a LOT of games for the Twins this month. If the relievers had done a remotely decent job of protecting slim leads, the Twins could have easily won several more games, which would perhaps put them in the driver's seat in the AL Central.

But let's look past the negatives. Without exception, each of these losses has come in an exceptionally close game. That's a 25-game stretch -- nearly a full month -- without ONE SINGLE decisive loss. While the competition hasn't usually been great, the Twins have not been totally outplayed on a single occasion since August 4. That's truly impressive.

What we also see is that even when the Twins have lost, they have been receiving great performances from their starting pitchers. In only two of these 10 games did a starting pitcher receive a loss, and in both instances that pitcher still delivered a Quality Start.

The bullpen is obviously a big issue, and if the past 25 games are any indication, it's really the only thing holding the Twins back from being an unstoppable winning machine. Hopefully the addition of September call-ups Philip Humber, Bobby Korecky and Jose Mijares can ease the load for this relief corps and make the Twins' bullpen more effective overall. If that happens, and the rest of the team can play the same way in September that they did in August, there's no way the White Sox will be able to keep pace.

Liriano's Ground Game

When Francisco Liriano joined the Twins' rotation in 2006, he was an absolute joy to watch. His mid-90s fastball and devastating slider made batters look foolish, and as a result he racked up a lot of strikeouts. Across two levels of the minor leagues and a September stint in the majors in 2005, Liriano struck out 237 batters over 191 1/3 innings of work for an outstanding 11.15 K/9IP ratio. He carried that over to the majors in '06, when he struck out 144 batters in 121 innings for a 10.71 K/9. (For reference, the major-league leader in K/9 among qualifiers in 2006 was Jake Peavy at 9.56.)

As a fan, it's great to watch a pitcher who can make batters miss because it is the most observable form of dominance. And in general, pitchers who can make batters miss at an exceptional rate are bound to have success. But Liriano's ability to post a phenomenal strikeout rate was only a part of the ingredient to his amazing success in 2006. Another crucial component that is perhaps often overlooked was his ability to induce ground balls when batters did manage to make contact.

Liriano induced ground balls at a rate of 55.3 percent in 2006. Among American League pitchers who qualified for the ERA title (which Liriano did not due to his injury), only four had a higher ground ball rate: Chien-Ming Wang (62.8%), Jake Westbrook (60.8%), Felix Hernandez (57.7%) and Roy Halladay (57.7%). The Twins' own supposed sinker specialist, Carlos Silva, posted a ground ball rate of 43.6 percent.

There's a truism about pitching that says there are two main things a pitcher can do in order to prevent runs: strike people out and induce ground balls. These are things that a pitcher is very much in control of, and excelling in these areas lessens the need to rely on strong defense or offensive support to win games. While Liriano was perhaps the best strikeout pitcher among all big-league starters while he was tearing up the league at age 22, he was also among an elite group of ground ball pitchers. It is this lethal combination that allowed him to go 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA over 28 appearances. This is what made him seemingly unbeatable. This is why he was -- during those middle months before his unfortunate injury -- an even better pitcher than his teammate and eventual Cy Young winner Johan Santana.

Early on this season, Liriano was not getting ground balls. During his disastrous three-start stint with the Twins in April, his GB/FB ratio was a pedestrian 13-to-11. And in his first two starts back after being recalled, although he had some success, opposing hitters actually hit more balls in the air (16) than on the ground (14).

But in his most recent start last Friday, Liriano started to look more like the guy he was in 2006. Not because he was making batters swing and miss left and right -- he struck out five in seven innings, and we shouldn't expect a whole lot more than that because his pitches just don't have the same bite that they did back in '06 (not yet at least) -- but because he was able to consistently force opposing hitters to beat the ball into the ground. In that win over the Mariners, Liriano induced 14 ground balls compared to just two fly balls. And the results glowed. He allowed only two hits, and the two runs that scored against him both came on a routine grounder that Brian Buckner -- er, Buscher -- let roll right between his legs with the bases loaded.

It would be great if Liriano could start racking up strikeouts the way he did in 2006. But given his current situation, that might be an unrealistic expectation. What's not unrealistic is the possibility that he can return to inducing ground balls at a very good rate, and that's what made his start on Friday night so hugely encouraging.

When he takes the hill tomorrow afternoon against the A's, keep an eye on how many ground balls Liriano is able to get. There are more ways to dominate a game than making every hitter miss.

No Break For Baker

Fortunately, it doesn't seem that the four-day hiatus provided by the All-Star break has done much to slow down the Twins and their winning ways. They picked up a series victory against the Rangers at the Dome this weekend, scoring easy victories on Friday and Saturday night before dropping a tough one on Sunday afternoon. While yesterday's loss was obviously the low point of a strong series in that the Twins missed their chance at a sweep, it did feature a brilliant outing from Scott Baker, and that's what I'd like to touch on in today's post.

Baker took a perfect game into the sixth inning, retiring the first 17 batters he faced before rookie catcher Taylor Teagarden hit a liner just over the wall in center field to simultaneously break up the perfect game and the shut-out (and ultimately stick Baker with an excruciating loss as the Twins fell 1-0). Overall, Baker allowed only two hits and one walk while striking out eight over eight innings of work. He's been on quite a run lately; two starts ago he blanked the Red Sox for seven innings, and in his last start before the break he held the Tigers to two runs through seven innings before giving up a two-run homer early in the eighth. That Baker is pitching deep into games with effective results is encouraging, and what is more encouraging is that over these past three starts he's done so against arguably the three best offenses in the American League.

Baker now owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with a 76-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 91 innings this season. Meanwhile, in New York, Johan Santana has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with a 116-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 130 2/3 innings. Certainly, Baker is no Santana, but he has been filling the role of team ace better than almost anyone could have realistically expected.

South Side Slug Fest

After being thoroughly pummeled in two straight games, the Twins finally took a lead in the fourth inning yesterday afternoon when Jason Kubel shot a line drive down the right field line to score Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and break a 1-1 tie. Nick Swisher responded with a solo homer in the bottom half of the inning, but in the next frame, Mauer and Morneau scored again, this time on a Michael Cuddyer double. The Twins led 5-2. Light was creeping through the looming clouds that smothered U.S. Cellular Field. The glimpse of light was short-lived.

Glen Perkins walked Jim Thome on four pitches with one out in the bottom of the sixth. On came Jesse Crain, who surrendered a two-run homer to Swisher. 5-4. In the next inning, the Sox touched up Matt Guerrier for three more runs, capped by a two-run dinger off the bat of Paul Konerko. 7-5. The Twins threatened to come back against closer Bobby Jenks in the ninth when Carlos Gomez delivered a leadoff double and Alexi Casilla followed with a single, but the rally was foiled when Joe Mauer tapped into a double play and Justin Morneau grounded out to short.

Certainly, it's difficult to excuse the abysmal performance displayed by the Twins pitching staff during this past series. Nobody could get outs. Over four games, the Sox batted .400 and smashed an astonishing 23 extra-base hits -- including 11 homers -- for a .717 slugging percentage. Those numbers are downright ghastly. That is some bad, bad pitching. Yet, considering that nearly every pitcher on the staff took part in the clobbering this weekend, it's probably reasonable to chalk this one up largely to a red-hot offense playing in their home park. How the Twins pitchers respond in Cleveland over the next three days will be crucially important.

The Twins, scratching at first place just a week ago, now find themselves two games under .500 and very much in danger of being surpassed by Cleveland for second place in the division. The season is far from lost, but this weekend's slaughter in Chi-town was nothing less than humiliating. The Twins need to get back on track, and fast, before things truly spin out of control.

State of the Pitching Staff

With 45 games in the books, we're now more than a quarter of the way through the 2008 season, so it seems like a good time to step back and look at how the team is doing as a whole. Today I'll run down the pitching staff, and tomorrow I'll dissect the offense.

The Twins rotation took some major hits in the offseason with the losses of Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Carlos Silva. Yet, with solid youngsters available to fill the gaps left behind by these valuable starters along with a bullpen that remained almost totally intact, the Twins still were deemed by many to have at least an average staff overall. Thus far, they've essentially lived up to that billing, having entered last night's game with a 4.11 team ERA that ranked them seventh in the American League and 13th in the majors.

The rotation has not been a real strength thus far -- Twins starters have combined for a 4.61 ERA to rank 12th among 14 AL clubs. I'd say that this unit is due for some improvement, since Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey -- arguably the team's two best starters -- have both been nagged by injuries and haven't been able to settle in. Also, as I mentioned on Friday, Boof Bonser's ERA has been inflated due to some bad luck and is likely to start coming down. I think it's reasonable to expect that Nick Blackburn can hang with an ERA in the low 4's, and while Livan Hernandez is probably due for a few rocky starts, I think it's safe to say he's not nearly in as far over head as Ramon Ortiz was last April.

I suspect Slowey and Bonser will both hit a groove and start rattling off some solid starts, so once the Twins get back Baker (who is, in my mind, the closest thing to an ace on this roster when healthy), I think the Twins will sport a pretty good rotation with an ERA that should gravitate back toward the middle of the pack. The emergence of Glen Perkins as a strong option only adds to this team's impressive starting pitching depth. (Two walks in 16 1/3 IP? Wha?!) Plus, if the team experiences any further injuries or any of the current starters spin out of control, it seems that Francisco Liriano is making some real progress down in Rochester. After allowing just three runs and one walk over eight efficient innings last Thursday, Liriano tossed seven innings of two-run ball against Syracuse yesterday, issuing just one walk while throwing 62 of his 91 pitches for strikes. He managed only three strikeouts and allowed eight hits (all singles), but the fact that he's getting the ball in the zone and avoiding long, drawn-out innings is extremely encouraging.

The bullpen picture isn't quite as promising, but still not terribly alarming. The Twins bullpen entered last night's game with a 3.18 ERA to rank first in the AL and third in the majors. This success has been due in large part to 18 stellar innings from Joe Nathan, along with reliable work from Matt Guerrier and Dennys Reyes. Juan Rincon and Jesse Crain have been frustrating to watch at times thanks to their shaky control (the two have combined for 22 walks in 33 innings), but thus far they've managed to limit hits and runs while posting decent strikeout rates, so the earned run averages haven't been bad (3.63 for Rincon; 4.02 for Crain). Bobby Korecky has certainly held his own thus far, and of course had a huge outing on Monday night which will hopefully allow him to build some confidence going forward.

It's great to see the bullpen so successful up to this point, but you have to wonder how long they can continue at this rate. If Rincon and Crain don't both significantly improve their control, it's only a matter of time before these walks start to haunt them. We've seen over the past few series how much it hurts to not have Pat Neshek in the equation -- Ron Gardenhire is forced to go to unreliable relievers in key situations, and to use Reyes against right-handed hitters (who have been quite successful against him thus far).

If the Twins end up finding themselves in need of bullpen help, there aren't any Nesheks sitting in the minors who look like sure things to come up and dominate immediately. Yet, there are a few guys down in Rochester with the potential to step in and contribute. I mentioned Tim Lahey yesterday as a sizable right-hander who is racking up impressive strikeout totals out of the Red Wings bullpen. Another right-hander who could be called upon is Julio DePaula, a 25-year-old who struggled during his stint with the Twins last year but has posted a 3.42 ERA while holding Triple-A hitters a .198 batting average this season (then again, he's also issued 17 walks in 26 innings, so he might not be the control upgrade the Twins are looking for over Rincon and Crain). Left-handers Mariano Gomez and Ricky Barrett have both pitched well for Rochester, and both have had some success against right-handers, so either one could serve as a potential option.

The loss of Neshek leaves the Twins short on dominating relievers, and I doubt we'll see this unit rank at the top of the league for too much longer, but between the major-league and Triple-A rosters, there is a wide assortment of serviceable arms. The bullpen should be just fine.

Overall, the Twins pitching staff ranks right in the middle of the league and my guess is that they'll hang there for much of the season. If a few things shake out right and the staff can mostly avoid further injuries, there's a decent chance we'll see this unit ranked solidly in the top half of the AL by the halfway point in the season. That might be enough to keep the Twins near the top of the AL Central, but these pitchers will need some help from the offense in order for that to happen. More on that tomorrow.

A Monumental Shift

For the past several years, the Twins' organization has been saddled with a major problem: too much pitching, too little hitting. It was a problem that prevented the 2005 and 2007 teams from making the playoffs, and also a deep-rooted issue that reached all the way into the lowest levels of the minor leagues. Any listing of the organization's top prospects was certain too include far more arms than bats. Fans continually bemoaned Terry Ryan's inability to deal from his pitching surplus and acquire legitimate hitters.

Now, here in the wake of Bill Smith's big offseason shakeup, I find myself looking up and down the organizational ladder and noticing a major reversal. Suddenly, it appears quite possible that pitching will be the problem needing to be addressed in coming years, while the offense could be in far better shape.

Don't get me wrong. Throughout the minor leagues, the Twins are still far deeper in quality pitchers than hitters. There are very few impact bats on the horizon, which remains troubling. Yet, looking at the Twins' major league roster, you find enough young, controllable, talented hitters to inspire confidence that this offense could be fairly strong for the next several years; to wit: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla, Mike Lamb and Jason Pridie. Granted, some of those players have chance of fizzling out (Gomez, Casilla, Pridie) and some aren't exactly young (Lamb), but all of the hitters listed have a decent shot at being productive hitters and all are locked up for at least the next three seasons. Several of the players listed -- most notably Mauer, Morneau and Young -- could very well rank among the league's elite hitters.

The pitching situation is less encouraging, if not in the long term than almost certainly in the short term. As I mentioned before, the Twins are not lacking in quality pitchers throughout their organization. In Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Brian Duensing, the Twins have a collection of major-league ready starters that most teams in the league would envy. The problem is that almost none of these pitchers have legitimate ace potential, and it would be a stretch to project almost any one of these guys as even a strong No. 2. This problem persists throughout the organization's advanced minor league affiliates. There are good prospects there: Anthony Swarzak, Ryan Mullins, Jeff Manship, Oswaldo Sosa, Yohan Pino and Jay Rainville to name a few. Each of those pitchers has a fairly good chance of developing into a big-leaguer at some point, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one with the makeup of a front-line major-league starter.

Dipping into the lower levels of the minor leagues, you find a few guys like Tyler Robertson and Deolis Guerra who have the upside of a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it's awfully difficult to put a ton of stock into pitching prospects who are still in their teens. Losing Johan Santana and Matt Garza has left this team with a lack of power arms outside of Francisco Liriano, so if Liriano struggles in his return from Tommy John surgery, we are potentially looking at a team that is very middle-heavy in terms of starting pitching over the next several years and without much in the way of star power. A rotation filled with solid but unspectacular starters would inevitably rank right in the middle of the league, and that would put a lot of pressure on the offense to make this team a playoff contender.

Over the next several seasons, we could see this team relying on offense to win games a lot more than we ever have in recent Twins history. That method will only work if some of the team's hitters live up to their star potential. Here's wishing good health to Liriano, and hoping guys like Baker and Bonser can step up to provide this staff with the type of above-average performance it will need. There might not be as much help on the horizon as we'd like to think in that department.

2007 Grades: The Pitchers

Before I get started today, I'd like to mention the Playoff Contest over at SethSpeaks.net. It's a great way to stay involved and interested in the MLB post-season even with the Twins not in it. The playoff action gets started this afternoon, but if you have some time this morning, be sure to swing by and build your fantasy playoff team! OK, on to the pitching grades...

Yesterday, I handed out my 2007 grades for the Twins' position players. Today, I'll take a look at the pitching staff. I've graded every pitcher that threw a pitch for the Twins this season, with the exception of Jason Miller, who tossed a total of four innings with the big-league club. As with the position players, the pitchers' grades are adjusted a bit based on expectations, but I tried to keep the scale as absolute as possible. Again, the players are listed in no particular order.

***

JOHAN SANTANA: A-
219 IP, 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 235 K / 52 BB, 1.07 WHIP
The bad news is that Santana put up his worst numbers since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. The good news is that those numbers are still extremely good by any standards. Perhaps it is unfortunate for Santana that he has been so good for the past three years, because if any other pitcher on the Twins' staff put up numbers like these, we'd all be jumping for joy. Instead, another great season from Santana is met with little enthusiasm. A lot of streaks ended for Santana this year: his string of strikeout crowns, his run of consecutive outings with 5+ innings pitched, his home winning streak. But for the fourth straight year, Santana pitched well over 200 innings while ranking among the best pitchers in the league in almost every category.

CARLOS SILVA: B
202 IP, 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 89 K / 36 BB, 1.31 WHIP
Expectations were set very low for Silva coming off a miserable 2006 campaign, but he managed to rebound big-time with his second-best season as a starter. After surrendering a whopping 38 home runs in '06, Silva nearly cut that number in half by allowing just 20 this year -- his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter.

MATT GARZA: B
83 IP, 5-7, 3.69 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.54 WHIP
Many will look at the difference between Garza's ERA in 2006 (5.76) and 2007 (3.69) and conclude that he made the necessary adjustments to become an effective major-league pitcher. That may not be totally true. Garza got off to a great start after being called up at the beginning of July, posting a 1.70 ERA while posting a 35/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding opponents to a .239 average through his first 37 innings. But, from that point forward, Garza experienced struggles similar to those he encountered as a rookie the previous season. Over his final 46 innings, Garza posted a 5.28 ERA to go along with a K/BB ratio of 32/20 and a BAA of .333. His strikeout and walk rates over that latter span were actually worse than the ones he posted in 2006.

BOOF BONSER: D+
173 IP, 8-12, 5.10 ERA, 136 K / 65 BB, 1.53 WHIP
After an impressive debut at the major-league level in 2006, Bonser regressed in almost all categories in 2007. Outside of an excellent month of May, Bonser was downright horrible all year long, and he was eventually moved to the bullpen in the final month of season.

SCOTT BAKER: B
143.2 IP, 9-9, 4.26 ERA, 102 K / 29 BB, 1.33 WHIP
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Baker surprised many by stepping up and delivering an above-average performance after joining the Twins' rotation in May. After struggling a bit initially, Baker posted a 3.24 ERA over 71 2/3 innings after July 30. His near-perfect game on August 31, which I attended, will be my most vivid memory from this season.

KEVIN SLOWEY: C+
66.2 IP, 4-1, 4.73 ERA, 47 K / 11 BB, 1.40 WHIP
Slowey struggled mightily in his first call-up, posting a 5.84 ERA while allowing 13 home runs in 37 innings and striking out only one batter per every two innings. When Slowey returned to the team as a September call-up, he was a different pitcher. In six September outings (four starts), Slowey posted a 3.34 ERA, fanned about one batter per inning, and allowed just three home runs in 29 and 2/3 frames. The overall numbers aren't overly impressive, but the upward trend toward the end of the season is very encouraging.

SIDNEY PONSON: F
37.2 IP, 2-5, 6.93 ERA, 23 K/ 17 BB, 1.89 WHIP
Ponson was predictably horrible, putting up atrocious numbers over seven wasted starts before being cut in May. Signing Ponson to a low-risk minor-league contract was not a bad move by the Twins; handing him an undeserved spot in the rotation to start the year and watching him get shelled for seven starts was.

RAMON ORTIZ: D+
91 IP, 4-4, 5.14 ERA, 44 K / 15 BB, 1.40 WHIP
Great in April, atrocious in May, and in the bullpen by June. Ortiz did a decent job out of the bullpen for the Twins, posting a 4.15 ERA in 18 relief appearances before being traded to the Rockies in August.

GLEN PERKINS:
B+ 28.2 IP, 0-0, 3.14 ERA, 20 K / 12 BB, 1.22 WHIP
While his workload for the season was unfortunately limited due to shoulder problems, Perkins looked great when he was on the mound with the Twins. He allowed only two homers in nearly 30 innings and limited opposing hitters to a .232 average. He did not allow a run in seven appearances after returning to the Twins in September.

NICK BLACKBURN: F

11.2 IP, 0-2, 7.71 ERA, 8 K / 2 BB, 1.80 WHIP

A September call-up, Blackburn made his major-league debut out of the Twins' bullpen on September 3, tossing a scoreless ninth inning in a 5-0 loss to the Indians. Blackburn continued to pitch well in his first several innings at the major-league level, posting a 2.08 ERA across 8 2/3 innings in his first four appearances. His final two appearances of the season, however, were beyond brutal, and they completely changed the complexion of his overall numbers. In three innings spread across his final two outings, Blackburn allowed 10 runs (eight earned) on 11 hits, including two homers. His overall performance this season is too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions from, but hopefully next year he will look more like the pitcher from those first four appearances and less like the one from the last two.

JESSE CRAIN: D-

16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 10 K / 4 BB, 1.41 WHIP

No doubt affected by shoulder problems that would quickly end his 2007 season, Crain pitched very poorly in 18 appearances. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff at end of May, and it is entirely possibly that he will not pitch again in the major leagues.

JULIO DEPAULA: F
20 IP, 8.55 ERA, 8 K / 10 BB, 2.00 WHIP

DePaula got his major-league career off to a very ugly start with the Twins this year. He walked more men than he struck out, he allowed tons of hits, and he surrended five home runs in 20 innings. My lasting memory from DePaula this season will be the time in early September that he entered a game against the White Sox in the ninth inning with the Twins ahead by six, and proceeded to surrender five earned runs without recording an out, allowing the Sox to get back into the game and eventually win.

PAT NESHEK: B+

70.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 74 K / 20 BB, 1.01 WHIP

After an astonishing first half in which he posted a 1.70 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .129 batting average, Neshek saw some serious regression after the All-Star break, where those numbers dropped to 4.82 and .260. Neshek posted a stellar K/9 rate of 11.1 in the first half, but that rate dropped off to 7.1 in the second half. Meanwhile, he walked one more batter in 28 post-break innings (14) than he did in 42 1/3 innings before the break (13). Neshek's overall results were still great, but the dramatic drop-off in the second half raises questions about whether his team-leading 74 appearances were too many.

JUAN RINCON: D-

59.2 IP, 5.13 ERA, 49 K / 28 BB, 1.56 WHIP

A crucial member of the Twins' bullpen for the past four seasons, Rincon saw his playing time diminish along with his control and his ability to keep the ball in the park. Rincon gave up nine home runs in 2007, which equals the total he allowed over the past three seasons prior -- a span of more than 200 innings. After watching his ERA shoot up to 5.71 with a brutal outing in Toronto on July 25, Rincon never was able to get back under 5 for the rest of the season. There were no rumblings of injury issues, so it's tough to finger what was behind Rincon's putrid 2007 campaign.

MATT GUERRIER: A-

88 IP, 2.35 ERA, 68 K / 21 BB, 1.05 WHIP

With a brilliant showing in 2007, Guerrier effectively turned himself from a reliable long-relief guy to a top-notch setup man. Like Neshek, Guerrier experienced some decline in the second half (1.70 before the break, 3.34 after) but it wasn't as drastic, and Guerrier actually improved his strikeout rate late in the year.

DENNYS REYES: C-
29.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 21 K / 21 BB, 1.88 WHIP

Few people expected Reyes to replicate his magical 2006 numbers, but the drop-off in '07 was pretty steep. While the ERA was not too bad, Reyes allowed way too many baserunners this season. After walking just 2.6 batters per nine innings and holding opponents to a .197 batting average last year, Reyes saw those numbers rise to 6.4 and .309 this year. He also missed a large portion of the season due to shoulder problems.

JOE NATHAN: A-

71.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 77 K / 19 BB, 1.02 WHIP

Nathan wasn't nearly as dominant as he was in '06, as his K/9 rate fell from 12.5 to 9.7, but he continued to be one of the top closers in the league by coming through in important situations and consistently keeping opposing hitters off the base-paths.

CARMEN CALI: C-

21 IP, 4.71 ERA, 14 K / 16 BB, 1.81 WHIP

All things considered, Cali did a reasonably decent job in limited duty out of the Twins' bullpen despite having no positive history at the major-league level. His control was horrendous (16 walks in 21 innings), but he managed to work around that to post an adequate ERA.