Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts
Showing posts with label schedule. Show all posts

Monday, July 19, 2010

Best Foot Forward

The Twins came out of the All-Star break badly needing a boost. It didn't come initially. On Thursday night, the Twins returned to play at Target Field, having just learned that their best hitter would be landing on the disabled list. Their first game out of the break featured more of the same: a starter getting clobbered, questionable fundamentals and missed offensive opportunities. The Twins fell to the division-leading White Sox 8-7, dropping them a distant 4 1/2 games out of first place (and four behind the idle Tigers). There was a lot of depression floating around Twins Territory on Friday afternoon.

My, how things have changed over the weekend.

The Twins took the final three games in their series against the Sox, wrapping things up with a thrilling ninth-inning comeback against Bobby Jenks on Sunday. Their two top starting pitchers dominated, and while Nick Blackburn struggled once again yesterday, his outing may finally make clear in the eyes of management something that has been clear in the minds of many for weeks: he needs to be removed from the rotation.

I wrote last Thursday about J.J. Hardy, suggesting that now that he's finally put his wrist issues behind him he could be primed for a big second half. I concluded the post by noting that the Twins "need a number of players to step up in the second half, and Hardy is at the top of that list." In the Twins' four-game series against the Sox, Hardy went 5-for-11 with two doubles and two RBI. Joe Mauer, whose name is obviously at the top of that aforementioned list right along with Hardy, also had an excellent series, finishing 7-for-18 with three doubles and five RBI.

The Twins, in general, did some impressive damage with the bats, running up a total of 24 runs on 52 hits over four games against a pitching staff that has been exceedingly hot.

Now, they've cut their deficit in the AL Central down to 1 1/2 games while leap-frogging the Tigers, who managed to lose four games over the weekend in Cleveland. Things get no easier for Detroit, who are looking at their schedule and seeing the following eight series lined up: Rangers, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Rays, White Sox, Yankees. Meanwhile, the Twins are coming upon a much-needed soft spot in their schedule where they'll face the Indians, Royals, Orioles and Mariners in successive series.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Tough Road Ahead

Ron Gardenhire has grown irritated in recent days, apparently with the tenor of questions he's been receiving from the media regarding his club. Kelsie Smith of the Pioneer Press reported on an outburst from the manager earlier this week:
After a five-minute pregame session with reporters, during which Gardenhire fielded questions about Hudson's wrist, Joe Mauer's swing, an increase in team errors, how he believes Trevor Plouffe and Danny Valencia are handling big-league at-bats and whether he senses the fan base is more fanatical this season, the annoyed manager stood up to leave and hollered, "Minnesota Twins! We're in first place, guys!"
Gardenhire was right. The team is in first place. But they're hardly in the clear and there is legitimate reason for concern about their current status.

They're past Ubaldo Jimenez, but Twins actually just wrapped up a relatively light portion of their schedule. Eighteen of their past 24 games have been at home, and their only road series during that span came against a pair of sub-.500 teams: the Mariners and Athletics. While the Twins did have a few tough series mixed into their recent homestands -- including match-ups against the Yankees and Braves, who may be the best teams in their respective leagues -- they also had weaker opponents like the Brewers and Royals mixed in and they should be expecting to win at home against all comers.

Despite the soft patch in the schedule, the Twins emerge from this latest stretch of games with just a 1.5-game lead on the Tigers in the AL Central, and now they will have to run through a veritable gauntlet leading up to the All-Star break.

First, the Twins will open a National League road trip tonight in Philadelphia. After the weekend series with the Phillies, they'll head to Milwaukee for a three-game set before wrapping up with another weekend series on the East Coast against the Mets. After that nine-game tour of the NL is complete, the Twins will come home to face the Tigers, who are nipping at their tails in the division, and the Rays, who are tied with the Yankees atop the AL East. Then it's back on the road for three games against the powerful Blue Jays and three more against the Tigers.

And then it's the All-Star break, which will probably be welcomed because that is a tough stretch of 22 games with only two days off. Not one series among those mentioned is a "gimme," so the Twins are going to need to step their game up and start scoring some runs if Gardenhire still wants to be touting his first place Minnesota Twins when the All-Star Game comes around.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Can They Pull It Off?

As we move toward the middle of August, it's coming time for fans to figure out what mindset they should bring into the final eight weeks of the season. Do the Twins actually have a legitimate chance of battling back and making a playoff run, or has their recent run of poor play -- along with a string of unfortunate injuries -- essentially doomed their chances? Let's break it all down.

With 51 games remaining, the Twins sit three games below .500 at 54-57. They are 5 games out of first place and trail two teams in the AL Central standings. Their recent play has been downright ugly; they've dropped seven of their past nine and their pitching staff has surrendered eight or more runs in six of those contests. If all that sounds gloomy, it is. The Twins are playing very poorly right now and they're sliding fast.

But, all things considered, they remain in somewhat decent shape at this point. Of the Twins' 51 remaining games, 27 are at home -- where they have gone 31-23 (.574) up to this point. Twenty-seven of the remaining 51 games on the Twins' schedule also come against either the Royals, Indians, Orioles or Athletics -- the four worst teams in the American League in terms of win/loss record. Additionally, the Twins have several games remaining against the two teams in front of them in the standings, with six against the White Sox and seven against the Tigers. This will give them ample opportunity to make up ground directly.

You often hear about a team "controlling its own destiny," but in this case it really rings true. If the Twins could find a way to get on track and play good ball over the final several weeks of the season, they actually have a pretty good shot at capturing this division despite their current disadvantage in the standings.

Whether or not the Twins are capable of getting on track and playing good ball is a different matter entirely. In order to win 90 games, the Twins would have to go 36-15 from here on out, which is pretty much unthinkable. In order to win 85 games, they'd have to go 31-20. That's a bit more realistic, and in all honesty 85 wins just might win this division depending on what happens with the Tigers and White Sox.

Getting to 85 wins would require the Twins to play .600 ball from this point forward, which will be close to impossible if their pitching staff continues to perform as it has lately. And given that the offense has been more than sufficient and features perhaps the best middle-of-the-lineup attacks in the league, it seems fair to say that the team's fortunes are all going to come down to the pitching.

So, can the rotation turn things around and perform adequately over the remainder of the season? Well, Scott Baker was going very well prior to his latest hiccup in Detroit. And even with that rough outing taken into account, since the beginning of June, Baker has posted a 3.87 ERA and 70-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 79 innings. He has also cut down significantly on his hideous home run rate from the first couple months of the season. I think we can feel pretty confident in Baker heading down the stretch. The other four starters all carry serious question marks:

* Carl Pavano was excellent in his Twins debut, but he was awfully hittable during this time in Cleveland this year. If he maintains his strong command and benefits from some good luck, he's capable of posting a sub-4 ERA from here on out, but he'll need to avoid the implosions that haunted him with Indians.

* Nick Blackburn was a tremendous surprise over the first few months of the season but has been hit hard by Mr. Regression over the past month; in his last five starts he has posted a 7.22 ERA while allowing a .376 batting average, and the Twins have gone 1-4 in those games. The Twins need him to bounce back and start rattling off Quality Starts like he did during the first three months of the season.

* Anthony Swarzak performed admirably over his first eight major-league starts despite relatively unimpressive peripherals, but in his two August starts he has allowed 13 runs -- 11 earned -- on 17 hits over just four innings of work spread across two starts. It's entirely possible that the league is catching up with Swarzak and I'm really not convinced that he's prepared to succeed as a full-time big-league starter, but at this point he's really the Twins' only option so we must hope he can bounce back and find a groove over his remaining starts. The alternative is that the Twins turn to another untested rookie like Brian Duensing or Kevin Mulvey, and in that case the outlook would not be a whole lot better.

* Finally, there's Francisco Liriano. I wrote about him extensively yesterday and I truly believe he will be the key to the Twins' success over the final weeks of the season. If he can't harness his fastball and improve on his erratic past couple outings, I don't think the Twins stand much of a chance. Even with a soft schedule, it will be tough to string together any winning streaks while relying on Baker, Pavano and Blackburn as their top three starters. But Liriano has better stuff than any other starting pitcher on this team. If he can perform like a top-of-the-rotation starter in the majority of his remaining outings, while Baker and Pavano chip in with above-average production and Blackburn reverses his recent struggles, the Twins might have a shot.

That's obviously a lot to ask, and the bullpen remains a concern, but the Twins certainly have a lineup capable of winning games when supported by adequate pitching. When that lineup is taken into account, along with a favorable remaining schedule and the fact that neither team currently ahead of the Twins in the standings is really all that great, there's no reason for fans to completely give up on this team. Not yet.

That could all change in a short span of time, though. If the Twins continue to slide, they will find themselves with a deficit too large to overcome. Indeed, the next couple weeks will decide whether the September call-ups should be viewed as reinforcements or auditions.

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Road Weary

The Twins have gone 5-0 in games that I've personally attended this year. Given that all those games have been at the Metrodome, this isn't totally surprising; the Twins have posted an excellent 20-11 record at home up to this point. 

This month, I'll be hitting the road to catch three Twins games: at Wrigley Field next weekend and then in St. Louis and Kansas City at the end of the month. I'm more than a little concerned that the team's winning streak in games where I'm present will be coming to an end soon.

With a 6-16 record away from home, the Twins have been the worst road team in all of baseball. At home, they've hit .278/.356/.447; on the road, .263/.335/.406. That's a disparity, but not an unreasonable one. Where the team has really struggled on the road is in the pitching department. Twins pitchers have allowed an OPS 82 points higher on the road than at home, and have posted a 4.53 ERA at the Metrodome compared to a 5.16 ERA outside of it. Last year, the split was even more dramatic (3.27 home ERA, 5.12 road).

The difference in the Twins' play at home versus on the road has been evident recently. The Twins shook off a tough losing streak by winning five of seven games during their last homestand; then, they hit the road and looked completely flat in their first two games in Tampa. They managed to salvage a win in the final game of that three game series against the Rays on Sunday (their first victory in 11 tries in the stadium of an AL East club), but certainly didn't make it look easy.

The team's struggles away from home are particularly troubling since the Twins will embark on a 10-game road trip after finishing up their current series with the Indians. Then, after playing six interleague games at the Dome, they'll hit the road for a nine-game stint. With 19 of their next 26 games set to be played on the road, the Twins will be in dire straights at the end of June if they can't play much better ball in opposing stadiums.

In a Dugout Splinters article for MN GameDay earlier this season, I wrote that maintaining their quality play at home would be key for the Twins if they hope to conquer the AL Central this season. I think I was off-the-mark. Strong play at home has essentially become a given for this ballclub; the more pressing need is that they find a way to win some games on the road. Because, if they can't, they simply don't stand a chance.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Another Crained End to April

With a day off today, the Twins are officially done with April. As Twins recall with great disgust, last year's April also ended with a series in Detroit that is best symbolized with the numbers 33 and 1. In Jesse Crain's last April outing last year, it was in a 18-1 blowout and Crain also gave up a run. He ended that April with a 7.50 ERA. This time around, he ends April with a 6.30 ERA.

Crain ended last year with a 3.52 after a vastly superior second-half, in which he went 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Thats compared to a first half 5.03 ERA, despite having a 2.03 ERA in June. The question, of course, is should we be worried about Crain struggling again when he looked like he got it together again at the end of last year. Much of the answer comes in Crain's April numbers from both this year and last year.

This year, despite the high ERA, Crain has allowed 10 hits in 10 innings compared to 20 in 12 April innings last year. Crain also allowed three home runs last year in April, though he did strike out 11 in those 12 innings. This year he has only struck out five, but he has given two home runs. Two doesn't sound like a lot, but in 10 innings, its quite significant. Granted, the home run he allowed to Juan Uribe in the April 8 game against Chicago was innocous because the Twins won, but yesterday's hurt a lot more.

With a chance to sweep the Tigers and close this April with the opposite result to a series in Detroit, Crain allowed a Brandon Inge walk-off home run in the ninth inning. I can't really compalin about winning a series in Detroit, considering that they are some of baseball's best competition. However, a 14-11 record April is not as good as it may seem.

Last year, the Twins had April series against Toronto, Cleveland, Oakland, New York, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Chicago, Kansas City, and Detroit. That team ended April with a 9-15 record. Though they won series against Oakland and New York, the only other series they won was against Kansas City. This year, the Twins have had series against Baltimore, Chicago, New York, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Seattle, Kansas City, and Detroit. The schedule certainly has been friendlier, but the result hasn't been a far and away great record.

May starts off easy enough for the Twins, with a series in Tampa Bay, but they will play Chicago six times along with series against Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Toronto, and the surprising NL West-leading Milwaukee Brewers. The only other easy series will come against the Texas Rangers and the suddenly-speaks-English-against-Slammin' Sammy Sosa.

Somebody like Crain is going to be important in May. This coming month, the Twins will not only be challenged more, but they will certainly have lots of decisions on their hands. Sidney Ponson might be ok in another start against a mediocre team, but the sooner he goes, the better. Offenses like that of Boston, Cleveland, and Toronto will mercilessly tie off against him. Expect the home runs only to mount and the countdown to a Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey sighting to end.

Because Ponson will be in the rotation and likely not pitching many innings, the Twins need some of their bullpen members like Crain to step up. Crain hasn't been very good and I choose to talk about him because of what happened last year in April and because of the big homer he gave up, but Dennys Reyes has been far worse. Right now, Juan Rincon, Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Pat Neshek all have sub-3.00 ERAs, but they all have also pitched more innings than Crain or Reyes. Both these guys have to step up in big games in the next month to take pressure of the rest of the bullpen.

Of course, there is too much to complain about when the pitching staff has posted a 3.96 ERA in April. Last year at the end of April, the ERA was an unsightly 6.28. Its a big improvement thats due to Ramon Ortiz and Carlos Silva making big contributions next to Johan Santana instead of Scott Baker being the only Twins starter with a sub-4.00 ERA at the end of the month. The schedule as helps, but as we turn the calender to May, things will be getting harder for the Twins.

As for yesterday's game, the Twins offense performed better than expected against starter Mike Maroth, but still did not do quite enough. While Torii Hunter had another extra-base hit with a home run off of Maroth to tie the game in the sixth, the Twins only other run-scoring game on a two-run double off the bat of Jason Kubel. The Twins 3-4-5 hitters Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer, and Justin Morneau went 0-for-10 with two walks, providing no offense from the hitters the Twins expect the most out of.

As for Hunter, he ends April with a torrid .326 average and .651 slugging percentage, due to his thirteen doubles and five home runs, but he walked only two times all month, leaving him with a .352 OBP. Last April was a entirely different story, as Hunter ended the month with a pathetic .189/.240/.378 line. Lets hope Hunter keeps it up and some other Twins hitters heat up a little more when better competition comes to town.

Monday, April 23, 2007

Don't Get Comfortable

Yesterday was one of those games for the Twins' offense that just makes you cringe. After mounting a threat by loading the bases with one out in the first inning, the Twins shut down and provided one of the more pathetic offensive displays in recent memory. After walking Michael Cuddyer to fill the bases in the first, Royals starter Jorge De La Rosa proceeded to retire 16 straight Twins hitters. Then, after allowing consecutive hits to Joe Mauer and Cuddyer in the sixth, De La Rosa went on to retire seven of the last eight batters he faced. His final line: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. Twins hitters swung at the first pitch of an at-bat eight times in the game, making me wonder if the players even bother looking at the scouting reports on opposing pitchers (De La Rosa has historically been haunted by horrible control, as evidenced by his career 6.08 BB/9 IP ratio). Not only was De La Rosa's eight innings pitched a career-high, the game marked the first time he's ever gone more than six innings in an outing without issuing multiple walks.

With all that said, I'm not going to bitch too much about the Twins' offense today. The fact is that they've generally hit the ball very well lately. The Twins pounded Royals pitching in the first two games of the series, scoring 14 runs on 28 hits. In the six games they've played since I wrote last Monday about their lack of run production, the Twins have averaged 6.17 runs per game and have raised its season average to a healthy 4.78 (even with yesterday's dud). Of course, it's important to note that the only above-average starting pitcher the Twins faced during that span was Felix Hernandez, who had to leave his start after recording just one out due to an injury. Nevertheless, the offense generally got the job done on their latest road trip.

On a broader scale, despite having hit just nine home runs in 18 games, the Twins are tied for first in the majors in doubles and are tied for fourth in the American League in runs scored. They have raised their team hitting line to .275/.331/.403 from .254/.310/.372 just a week ago. All in all, their record stands at 11-7 and they sit in first place atop the AL Central. With that in mind, it's fairly reasonable to be satisfied with the team's performance to this point. Or is it?

Keep this in mind: 13 of the 18 games the Twins have played so far have come against the four worst teams in the AL (Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Baltimore). The Twins lost their series against the Royals and split at home with the Devil Rays, two highly disappointing outcomes that are made tolerable by the sweeps of the Orioles and Mariners. I think many would agree that the Twins have not played particularly good baseball so far, despite their winning record, and they could have easily lost several of the games they won if not for being bailed out by some bad mistakes that are characteristic of bad baseball teams (the late-inning base-running gaffes by Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre come to mind). In their other five games, against the White Sox and Yankees, the Twins went 2-3. That has been the extent of the challenge to their schedule so far. This is about to change.

The Twins open a two-game series tonight at home against the Indians. This weekend they head to Detroit for a three-game set with the Tigers. Then, in early May, they have a 12-game stretch against the Red Sox, White Sox, Tigers, and Indians. By this time next month, we will know a lot more about this Twins team than we do now. I can say this much with great certainty: if they continue to play the same type of sloppy and inconsistent baseball that they have up until this point, the Twins will not still be four games above .500 in a month.