The Nicks' Picks 2011

It's that time of year. Time for us all to make our trivial and almost certain-to-be-wrong preseason predictions, so that when the season comes to an end we can look back and chuckle at how clueless we were. To kick off the action, I've jotted down my predictions for various general and Twins-specific outcomes, and I've even enlisted my former blogging partner Nick Mosvick to throw his hat in the ring.

Feel free to submit your own predictions in the comments section.

Nelson's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: White Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Braves

World Series: Phillies over Red Sox

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL MVP: Robinson Cano
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt

Twins-Specific

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Kyle Gibson
Twins Most Improved Player: Michael Cuddyer
Bold Predictions: Front office will add multiple relievers from outside before trade deadline; Liriano's ERA will rank among top 3 in AL; Delmon Young will hit 30 home runs.
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Good health from core players; emergence of quality relief options in middle innings; continued success against divisional opponents.

Mosvick's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: Tigers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL West: Giants
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Braves
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: Braves over Red Sox

AL MVP: Carl Crawford
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek
NL Rookie of the Year: Mike Minor

Twins-Specific

Last year, in this category, I produced a spectacularly bad pick by predicting that Brendan Harris would get more at-bats than Delmon Young. Not only did I miss on foreseeing any improvement from Young, I missed on Harris becoming the definition of a replacement-level player, or possibly worse. Nonetheless, I'll get the tires again on Twins-specific bold predictions here:

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Ben Revere
Twins Most Improved Player: Kevin Slowey
Bold Predictions: Kevin Slowey will lead the staff in ERA, Matt Capps will have more saves than Joe Nathan, Jason Kubel will top 30 home runs
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Morneau making a healthy and productive return to the lineup; rookie bullpen arms having success late in the season; getting at least marginal productivity from bench players not named Thome.

National League Preview

Hi folks and Happy Easter. Typically, before the start of each season I've posted a preview for each league on this blog, with the AL Preview being written up by me and the NL Preview being written up by Nick Mosvick. Sadly, I just haven't had the time to sit and write the AL Preview this year, but Mosvick held up his end of the bargain and provided a breakdown of the National League, with predicted finishes and synopses of all 16 teams. You can check that out below. Then, be sure to check back later tonight and tomorrow for a Twins Season Preview and my annual Opening Day site update.

NL PREVIEW - By Nick Mosvick

NL East

1) Atlanta Braves

The Phillies seem to be the consensus pick to win the NL East, but the Braves make a good pick to beat them to the punch because of their rotation. While they've lost Javier Vazquez, they have Tim Hudson back, they've got a full year of Tommy Hanson to look to, and, as long as his health holds up, they've got Jair Jurrjens too. That doesn't even count Derek Lowe, who for whatever reason has been tabbed as the opening day starter, despite having a 88 ERA+ last year. Hudson probably won't replicate Vazquez's production, since he's coming off of major surgery, but that gives the Braves three above-average starters. And they've got Kenshin Kawakami, who put up a 107 ERA+ in his rookie season. Bullpen-wise, much will rest on how good Billy Wagner is still, but he looked pretty dominant in limited action last year, so I'd hedge my bets that he'll have a very good season closing for the Braves.

The big news for Braves hitters is that top hitting prospect Jason Heywood will be joining the fold. While its hard for a 20-year to jump from Double-A and kill major-league pitching, Heywood's comparables suggest that he'll probably have an impressive rookie season. I'd expect 20-25 homers from him, good plate discipline, and the Rookie of the Year. Otherwise, the Braves smartly cut ties with many of their worst hitters from last year, specifically Jeff Franceour, Garrett Anderson, and Kelly Johnson. Instead, they'll have a offense built around old-timer Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, Nate McClouth, and young guys like Jordan Schaffer and Heywood. The Braves probably won't have a great hitting club, but they should get on-base well as a team and they should have a good enough pitching staff to win the division.

2) Philadelphia Phillies

As noted, most experts seem to be picking the Phillies to win the division. And its understandable why. The Phillies had, by all measures, the best offense in the NL last year and may well repeat that feat. However, I think there are some reasons to doubt that. For one, two key contributors last year should be in for a regression. Raul Ibanez had a career year last year at age 37, posting a 131 OPS+. While ZIPS projects him to post a 125 OPS+ this next year, I'm not entirely sold and neither are many other projection systems. Ibanez regressed in the second half last year, posting just a .774 OPS in the final three months while dealing with injury issues. At 38, I suspect that he may have trouble staying healthy and may not be able to produce at the same rate. Another candidate for regression is Shane Victorino. Both Bill James and the CHONE projections have his power sliding a good deal. Of course, while the offense may slip, what is more important is the Phillies' lack of pitching depth.

The Phillies do have Roy Halladay for a full year, and he should make a run at the Cy Young. Additionally, Cole Hamels has a good chance to have a bounce-back year, given that his FIP last year was nearly identical to his FIP in 2008, when he posted a 3.09 ERA. However, the Phillies have a candidate for a good deal of regression in J.A. Happ. Happ was perhaps the luckiest pitcher in baseball last year, as he had the greatest gap between ERA (2.93) and FIP (4.33) and managed to strand an incredible 85.2% of baserunners. Not surpisingly, most projection systems have Happ posting an ERA right around were his FIP was last year. Similarly, Joe Blanton experience a big jump in strikeouts last year that may not stick and he's likely to be merely a league-average pitcher. Whomever else fills out the rotation isn't too impressive, given that the candidates include Kyle Kendrick, 47-year old Jamie Moyer, and Satchel Paige looking (but not pitching) Jose Contreras. As for the bullpen, no closer or reliever period was as bad as Brad Lidge last year. Lidge posted a 59 ERA+ last year and allowed a incredible 11 home runs in 58 2/3 innings. Ryan Madsen should close, but something tells me Charlie Manuel, ever the "gut-feeling manager," will probably foolishly stick with Lidge and perhaps cost his team some wins as he did last year.

3) Florida Marlins

The Marlins have a lot of incredibly talented players (Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson) but don't quite have a complete team right now as they want for prospects like Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. However, they should win more games then the Nats and Mets. Josh Johnson was amongst the best starters in the NL last year and should be right up there again. Ricky Nolasco is sort of the anti-Happ, if you will. While he posted a 5.06 ERA, incredibly, his FIP was 3.35, giving him the highest disparity between the two. Why such a high difference? Despite an outstanding K/BB ratio (4.43) and one of the highest strikeout rates in the NL (9.49), he only managed to strand 61% of runners. That's some extreme bad luck unlikely to show up again. Of course, after Johnson and Nolasco, its a bit of a crapshoot. Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller are all pitchers with the potential to have a big season, with Sanchez the most likely to do so. They also don't have much of a bullpen. With hitting, while they may have Ramirez, they also appear poised to put out hitters like Emilio Bonifacio, who may have been the worst hitter in the majors last season when he posted a .252/.303/.308 line with a 61 OPS+. They do have the reigning ROY in Chris Coghlan, however, and of course there is the chance that a hitter like Morrison or Stanton arrives at the majors this year and lights up the league.

4) New York Mets

It's been a turbulent couple of years for the Mets, but it seems like once again, they'll be paying an awful lot of money for a very mediocre team. And, of course, a lot of it is related to health. Jose Reyes? On the DL. Carlos Beltran? Out until June, possibly later. Johan Santana? Coming off of major surgery and looking in less-than-stellar form this spring. David Wright? Coming off a year that revolved around a major power outage. While I suspect, as many do, that Wright's year was a blurb and that the power will return this year, the rest of the team just doesn't look good. Yes, they did sign Jason Bay to a big contract, but Bay seems to have become an overrated player in his time in Boston. He'll be a good, but not a great hitter whose glove leaves a lot to desire. Outside of Wright and Bay, the Mets lineup includes bats of the no-power variety (Luis Castillo) and bats of the mediocre-power and no plate discipline variety (Jeff Franceour, Dan Murphy). The rotation is equally unimpressive. Even if Santana is back to form, everyone after him is a question mark. Can Oliver Perez ever find the strikezone? Will John Maine return to form after two injury-plagued seasons? Will Mike Pelfrey ever live up to the hype? My guess is that the Mets have neither enough hitting or pitching to contend this year. Worse yet, they don't seem to have too much hope on the horizon either, like the next team on this list.

5) Washington Nationals

Part of me felt like putting the Nationals fourth, if only to both give Nats fans a little hope and to make a bold statement as to how bad the state of the Mets franchise is right now. Why is there hope for the Nationals? One answer is pretty obvious. Stephen Strasburg should be arriving sometime this year and I don't think its beyond him to put up numbers similar to the ones Tommy Hanson put up last year once he reaches the majors. They also have a up-and-coming shortstop in Ian Desmond and a blossoming star in Ryan Zimmerman. They probably still won't win very much this year, but at least the state of the franchise is starting to look better. What is really going to make the difference is if the Nationals can do what the Rays did a few years ago and use their position in this year's draft to continue stocking their farm system with loads of talent.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals

There are a good deal of reasons to suspect that the Cardinals may not be quite as good this year, the NL Central also doesn't appear to be the most competitive division in the NL. The Cards, of course, has a good deal of stars to put on the field. They have reigning three-time MVP and Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, former Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter, and Cy Young-runner up Adam Wainwright. There isn't a ton of depth in the rotation beyond their two aces, given that Joel Pineoro left in free agency, but Brad Penny is a comeback candidate who could have a good year as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Additionally, they have several hitting candidates who have the potential for big years, especially with Ryan Ludwick (37 homers in 2008) and Colby Ramus. I don't love the bullpen and I think that Ryan Franklin is probably in for a regression (he had an awful 44/24 K/BB ratio in 61 innings, not the sign of a truly dominant closer). But, with the star power that they have in both hitting and pitching in what looks to be a weaker division, they should win out.

2) Milwaukee Brewers

I admit that there is some bias in this pick. I could never view the Brewers as a rival, but rather as another midwest team that I could easily get behind if not for my high level of fandom for the Twins. They lost before Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy in the offseason, so that could haunt them. But they still have one of the best 3-4 tandems in the game in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Casey McGehee had himself a nice rookie year last year (.301/.360/.499) and Corey Hart certainly seems like a good comeback candidate. And the team has a potential Rookie of the Year candidate in Alcides Escobar. They don't have a very imposing pitching staff, but they did sign Randy Wolf in the offseason and they have Yovani Gallardo, who is young (24) and struck out 204 hitters last year. Once again, given the mediocrity of the NL Central's competition, I think that the Brewers can easily be second in the division.

3) Chicago Cubs

Given all the money they spend, the Cubs really should be better. But spending doesn't mean much if you make poor investments. Case-in-point: Alfonso Soriano. A eight-year deal is often a potentially bad bet, but it was even worse given Soriano's age and skill-set. Soriano put up a terrible .241/.303/.423 line last year that amounted to a 84 OPS+. Yes, Derrek Lee had a great season last year (.306/.393/.579, 145 OPS+), but it won't be enough. Aramis Ramirez has struggled with injuries the last few years, so if he's healthy, he could change things. Granted, the Cubs had a pretty good rotation last year. But, let's keep a few things in mind. For one, they lost Rich Harden who despite being limited by injuries again, still managed a 110 ERA+ and 171 Ks in 141 innings. Two, Randy Wells was pretty lucky last year in posting a 3.05 ERA despite a very low strikeout rate (5.7 per nine) and only a decent K/BB ration (2.5), so its no surprise his FIP was 4.24. Now they still have Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster, but they are also adding the terrible former Twin Carlos Silva to that group. The Cubs also have a weak bullpen who's likely closer (Carlos Marmol) can't find the strike zone. I suspect they'll be a mediocre team again like last year, despite the high payroll.

4) Cincinatti Reds

The Reds do have a bright future in many respects, but its still not here. Jay Bruce should make the jump and be one of the most improved players in the game, given his impressive power that he's already displayed in the big leagues (.247 isolated power last year). They also have Joey Votto, who was amongst the best hitters in the NL last year despite missing some time with personal issues, putting up a .322/.414/.567 line, amounting to a 155 OPS+. They also have the talented Brandon Phillips at second. However, there are a lot of questions after that. How good will Edinson Volquez be after major surgery? Which Bronson Arroyo will show up? Will Johnny Cueto put it together? Will Aaron Harang bounce back or will he be traded? Will Homer Bailey finally live up to the hype? Too many questions now to be a great team, but a lot of young, blossoming stars to keep the fans watching.

5) Houston Astros

I was tempted to put the Astros last, if only because I'd like the Pirates to do better this year and because the Astros just didn't do anything this offseason except for give out one of the worst contracts of recent memory (Brandon Lyon). There are really only a few bright spots on the team. Wandy Rodriguez was amongst the best starters in the NL last year, putting up a 139 ERA+ and striking out 193 in 205 innings. Hunter Pence continued his development last year, increasing his walk rate (58 walks) and power (25 homers). But their establish stars are hurting. Lance Berkman had great year last year (139 OPS+) but he's already hurt. Roy Oswalt had his worst year in his career last year (102 ERA+). And worse yet, the Astros have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Doesn't look good for 'Stros fans.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates

Its more or less wait and see at this point for the Pirates. They got rid of all their established stars via the trade over the last two years (Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez) and free agency (Adam LaRoche) in trying to resurrect the franchise through a serious rebuilding process. The biggest positive is that Andrew McCutchen was a rightful Rookie of the Year candidate last year, posting a 122 OPS+. Garrett Jones, the ex-Twin, showed great power last year, hitting 21 homers in 314 at-bats and posting a 147 OPS+. But otherwise, the Pirates have to wait now and see if the prospects they got via trade, such as Jeff Clement, pay off and if draft picks like Pedro Alvarez can do the same. Its going to be another year or two at least.

NL West

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies seem like a chronically underrated team. They have some great pitching they've develop and they have several good young hitters. Of course they better, since I just did the insane thing and picked them to win the World Series. Lets list off the young players they have who have already broken out or are ready to: Troy Tulowitzski, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, and Carlos Gonzalez. And what about the pitchers? They've got Jeff Francis coming back and they got breakout years last year from both Ubaldo Jimenez (132 ERA+, 198 Ks in 218 innings) and Jorge de la Rosa (193 Ks in 185 innings, 105 ERA+). They also established a good closer last year in Huston Street. I think with all the young talent they have, the Rockies can take the division.

2) San Francisco Giants

I feel like this is a bit of a questionable pick, but the Giants have a few very talented players and one rookie ready to take on the big leagues. I of course am talking about consecutive Cy Young award-winning Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandaval, and Buster Posey. Even with just one starter hitting above the league average (Pablo Sandaval), the Giants won 88 games last year. They have plenty of pitching depth with Matt Cain (151 ERA+), Jonathan Sanchez (a great breakout candidate, 177 Ks in 163 1/3 innings, 103 ERA+, no hitter) and even (no joke) Barry Zito, who was much better last year with a 108 ERA+ and a much improved strikeout rate (7.2/9). The Giants should be a good team again and give the Rockies a run for their money. That's a lot of top-end talent.

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers had a terrible offseason and it seems mostly because of owner Frank McCourt's very public divorce proceedings. They lost talent (Orlando Hudson, Randy Wolf) without doing much to replace it. Their one notable signing (Garrett Anderson) is not only old, but was one of the worst hitters in baseball last year (88 OPS+, just a .303 OBP). Granted, they still have formidable talent in Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and Jonathon Broxton. In fact, Kershaw deserves credit for posting what seems to be like one of the most underrated seasons ever, given how much criticism I've read about him and his need to improve despite posting one of the best pitching seasons ever for a 21-year old, leading the league by allowing only 6.3 hits per nine innings, striking out 185 in 171 innings and posting a 142 ERA+. Yes, he needs a lot of improvement. Not really an ace yet (yes, ERA+ was by far the best on the team). Maybe, given all this talent, I'm just punishing Joe Torre for the head-scratching move of the week in making Vicente Padilla his number one starter.

4) Arizona Diamondbacks

I can't pick them to win anything anymore. Most of the young talent that was supposed to come to fruition just hasn't and the farm system is pretty bare. Yes, Justin Upton was great last year (26 homers, 20 steals, 126 OPS+ at 21) saving my fantasy team. Mark Reynolds was great too, with 44 homers and a 123 OPS+. But what about Chris Young, who was terribly disappointing with a 80 OPS+? Or Stephen Drew, of the 89 OPS+? And while Dan Haren was great last year (146 ERA+, 223 Ks), their other ace Brandon Webb is still hurting after a season-ending injury at the beginning of last year and I think that the Diamondbacks made a major downgrade in trading Max Scherzer for Edwin Jackson. Just not going to be enough without anymore help coming.

5) San Diego Padres

The Padres have not had a friendly past year or two. They traded their ace last year (Jake Peavy). Their other good pitcher, Chris Young, got hurt last year and was ineffective (5.21) and looks to still be hurt this year. They had a great hitter in Adrian Gonzalez (166 OPS+), but they really don't have much else and they also don't have a great system right now. Really, what seems to be the talk of the Padres right now is only about whether they'll be trading Gonzalez or closer Heath Bell this year. Its unfortunate, but things just don't look very good for the Padres.

The Nicks' Picks 2010

As is the case each year, me and my former blogging partner Nick Mosvick have put together our predictions for the outcome of each division, playoff round and major award for the upcoming season. This year, we've also added a number of Twins-specific predictions, both because it seemed fitting for a Twins blog and because Josh Johnson started a campaign to make today "Twins Predictions Day."

Without further ado, our humble predictions for your 2010 MLB season, which kicks off on Sunday night:

Nelson's Picks

General

AL West: Mariners
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Yankees
AL Wild Card: Red Sox

NL West: Dodgers
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Braves
NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: Red Sox over Cardinals

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter

AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward

Twins-Specific

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama
Twins Most Improved Player: Liriano
Bold Predictions: Jesse Crain will lead team in saves; Nick Blackburn will post 5+ ERA; J.J. Hardy will win first Gold Glove
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Slowey and Liriano stepping up, bullpen staying healthy, success at Target Field.

Mosvick's Picks

General

AL West: Rangers
AL Central: Twins
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL East: Braves
NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: Rockies over Yankees

AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young: Tommy Hanson

AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez

AL Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
NL Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey

Twins-Specific

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Scott Baker
Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama
Twins Most Improved Player: Kevin Slowey

Bold Predictions:

1) Brendan Harris will get more at-bats than Delmon Young. I say this because of two reasons. One, I'm just not sure I buy into the notion that Young is new and improved and ready to break out. I think that it's going to become clear early that the Twins are better off putting another subpar fielder, but a much better hitter in the field (Jason Kubel) in order to get another superior hitter in the lineup (Jim Thome). Maybe I'm hoping for too much out of a 39-year old hitter, but I think that Thome has plenty left in terms of power and plate discipline. Second, I think that Punto may struggle again out of the gate at the plate and may force Gardy to play Brendan Harris a lot more at third and use Punto as a defensive replacement.

2) Jon Rauch will have 30 saves. While I would probably prefer Neshek to be the closer, I suspect that Rauch will end up with the role to begin the year. And I think he'll probably keep it. This is mostly because I believe that Gardy prefers to have defined roles in the bullpen and I doubt that he will really do too much playing around with who gets saves. I think he'll stick with one candidate most of the year, the Twins will get plenty of save opportunities, and that the guy picking them up usually will be Rauch.

3) Scott Baker gets over 200 strikeouts. I feel like this is probably my "boldest" claim, but I really like Baker, even though he just got beat up in a spring training game. Baker had an outstanding K/BB ratio last year (162/48 in 200 innings) and posted a good strikeout rate. My sense is that Baker will make the jump this year and get up to around 220-230 innings. If he does so and just moderately improves his K-rate, he'll be able to hit 200 strikeouts. It would be quite the impressive accomplishment, but I think Baker can do it. I'm sure most Twins fans feel that Liriano is more likely to get 200 strikeouts, but I think Baker will get the innings necessary to do so before Liriano does.

A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins,Tigers, Indians, White Sox, Royals

Keys to Success for the Twins:

1) Proper Lineup Management. To clarify, by this I mean a few things. For one, I mean that Gardy will have to use his players in a way somewhat uncharacteristic for him. He'll have to pay more attention to splits, especially given Jim Thome's presence on the bench. I think that in order to maximize wins, Gardy is going to have to find a way to get Thome's bat in the lineup versus right-handed pitchers. This is especially true given that the AL Central has many more good right-handers (Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke) than great lefties (Danks is the only real standout). Getting Thome as many bats as possible will be key.

2) Bullpen Stability. I doubt this will be an issue, but its still important to the Twins' success. As Nick Nelson has already noted earlier this week, its unlikely that Gardy actually sticks with a closer-by-committee set-up. Whether its Pat Neshek or Jon Rauch who becomes the primary closer, it will be important that the bullpen maintains some defined roles that I'm guessing it will. That is, Jose Mijares should stick as a lefty-specialist, Matt Guerrier should stick as a set-up guy, and so on. As noted, I don't think this is an issue, because they Twins have a good amount of talented arms in their bullpen, but with a still-relatively young rotation, the Twins will need have strong bullpen in to maintain success.

3) Health. Health is always important. And its hard to ignore it for the Twins. Joe Mauer missed a month last year and has battled injuries throughout his career. Justin Morneau is coming off a serious back injury. Pat Neshek is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Kevin Slowey is coming off of major wrist surgery. This isn't to say that any of these guys is going to get hurt again, but just to make a fairly obvious point. Any of the Twins top stars could get injured at any time and keeping Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Baker, Slowey, and many other key contributors healthy is going to determine how the season goes. Granted, the Twins could get lucky again and have a situation like last September in which a slumping star goes down with an injury (Justin Morneau) and is replaced by a streaking hitter (Cuddyer), but that's something hard to count on.

The Nicks' Picks 2009

Without further ado, mine and Mosvick's predictions for the winners of each division, the World Series and the major postseason awards.

The Nelson Picks

AL East: New York

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Los Angeles

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay

NL East: New York

NL Central: St. Louis

NL West: Los Angeles

NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: NY Yankees over St. Louis

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt

AL MVP: Grady Sizemore
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters
NL Rookie of the Year: Dexter Fowler

The Mosvick Picks

AL East: Tampa Bay

AL Central: Cleveland

AL West: Oakland

AL Wild Card: New York

NL East: Atlana

NL Central: Chicago

NL West: Arizona

NL Wild Card: Phillies

World Series: Tampa Bay over Arizona

AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
NL Cy Young: Dan Haren

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez

AL Rookie of the Year: David Price
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin

National League Preview

At this point, given my infrequent appearances at the blog and my lack of recognizability amongst newer readers of this site, I may be a guest blogger at this point. Regardless, those who have read the site for a long time know that I normally do the National League previews before the season and that won't change this year, despite my continuing and sometimes overwhelming law school obligations. Let's begin:

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs
It's true that the Brewers had a great run last year that should make us take them more seriously, but at the same time, they lost some of the principle movers in that run: C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets. In the meantime, the Cubs added last year's OPS leader in the AL, injury-addled and personally troubled Milton Bradley. Even if he only plays 120 or 130 games, he'll add to an already potent offense that includes Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and a decline-phase Derrek Lee. And don't forget the rotation includes Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster.

Player to watch: Sean Marshall, SP
(Marshall should be the 5th starter this year, winning the spot over Aaron Heilman. His peripherals aren't great, but 58 Ks in 65 innings last year looked good. He should be good for double-digit starts and a decent ERA.)

2. St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers will be competitive for this second spot, but ultimately, I'm not convinced they have enough starting pitching to grab second place and what could be a possible wild-card spot. The Cards will have Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright back and any offense built around Albert Pujols isn't worth worrying about, even if Ryan Ludwick regresses from a breakout season in 2008. The Cards didn't do much in the offseason, but then again, neither did the Brewers.

Player to watch: Chris Perez, RP
(Now that Jason Isringhausen is gone, Perez seems likely to succeed him as the closer. He's a well-regarded relief prospect with a outstanding fastball, if not the greatest control. Don't expect a top ERA, but he should get saves, strikeouts, and a good ERA. Colby Ramus has an argument here, but I'd expect that breakout to come in another year.)

3. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are a team I want to root for, but I'm just not sure that they are much better than a .500 or so team. Sure, they've got lots of hitters, from Ryan Braun to Prince Fielder to J.J. Hardy, but they have holes too, like Bill Hall and the frustratingly ineffective Rickie Weeks. The Brewers also have good young starters like Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Villenueva but they don't have a real ace and have mediocre leftovers like Jeff Suppan and Matt Bush to round out the rotation. More to the point, they don't have an overwhelming relief corps, with lots of big names (Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper) but little substance.

Player to watch: Rickie Weeks, 2B
(Weeks has been around for a while and has produced plenty of lofty expectations, but he's yet to play a full season and has not shown his five-tools skills outside of good patience and speed. If he doesn't break out this year, he probably never is going to. Don't expect a high batting average (at least, not over .280), but he should hit with more power and show a good eye at the plate. )

4. Cincinnati Reds
Even though the Astros did well enough in the second half last year to finish above .500, I don't think they'll be repeating it this year. What's the difference between the team? The Reds have much better young talent in pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and hitters like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. Overall, they probably aren't ready to contend, but don't count out the Reds talent-wise.

Player to watch: Johnny Cueto, SP
(Cueto had a very exciting beginning of the year last year, striking out 10 in seven innings while giving up just one hit. Unfortunately, bad control and fly ball tendencies in a hitter's park worked against him over the year. I wouldn't expect a huge drop in ERA, but Cueto should strikeout plenty again and slowly get a hold of his control.)

5. Houston Astros
One word with the Astros: old. Mainstays, like Lance Berkman, are 33 and getting closer to inevitable decline. It is not so much that Berkman and Oswalt and other Astros veterans are going to fall off the cliff (though, clearly Miguel Tejeda has), but that there are no young stars to replace them. There are gaps all over the place on the Astros team -- from the starting rotation to catcher to center field to everyone in the bullpen outside of the closer, Jose Valverde, who is no guarantee himself.

Player to watch: Hunter Pence, OF
(Pence in some respects already had a breakout in his rookie campaign, but he arguably was below expectations last year, despite knocking out 25 home runs. Pence needs to learn the strike-zone better and learn to utilize his speed (11/21 on steals isn't good), things that he has a good chance to show over this next year.)

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Even the most optimistic of pundits isn't likely to think the Pirates are going to do well this year. They've started to make the right changes, but it's certainly going to take some time. If nothing else, they have a good young starter in Paul Maholm, a good young closer in Matt Capps, and it is possible that given time, Andy LaRoche could show his skills with a full-time job.

Player to watch: Andy LaRoche, 3B
(It's about time LaRoche showed off his skills in the show, given his good numbers in the minors, where he produced a .294/.380/.517 overall. I'm not sure that LaRoche will ever produce that in the bigs, but he should be able to aproach a .265/.350/.450.)

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves
This pick may seem a little preposterous, but I feel as if the Braves have one shot this year with their current roster to make a run at the NL East and I'm not really overwhelmed by the Phillies or the Mets. Both those teams have holes, but the Braves have a potential outstanding rotation with Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jair Jurrgens, and their lineup includes Chipper Jones, Brain McCann and Kelly Johnson. I'm not impressed by moves like signing Garrett Anderson, but under the leadership of Bobby Cox, I have to think they can make it work.

Player to watch: Casey Kotchman, 1B
(Kotchman had been a disappointment overall for the Angels, considering that he hit .325/.401/.493 in the minors, but has managed only a .269/.336/.413 line in the majors. Kotchman will never be Prince Fielder, but I would certainly expect a better average, better discipline, and decent power in the future.)

2. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have one of baseball's better lineups, despite losing Pat Burrell (sorry, but Raul Ibanez is not the best replacement), but their pitching worries me and the defending champs don't have me convinced. Yes, they have Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels, who are both incredible, but otherwise, I'm not impressed by Joe Blanton, J.C. Romero, and Brett Myers. And I'm pretty sure that eventually, Jamie Moyer will truly show his age. I just don't think he's the second coming of Hoyt Wilhelm. They'll be good with a lineup including MVP candidates like Chase Utley, but not good enough.

Player to watch: Jayson Werth, OF
(This is more a less a cop-out, since Werth hit .273/.363/.498 in 418 at-bats last year. But, the Phillies don't have a lot of good breakout candidates and Werth hasn't had success for a full year. Given a full year, Werth should be able to hit with power and patience again, and possible approach 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Apologies to Terry Tiffee fans everywhere.)

3. New York Mets
The Mets look good on paper and probably have an excellent chance to win the East, but given what has happened in the past, it is awfully hard to ignore the difference between two halves. If the Mets are a schizophrenic team again, then it will be another hard road to the playoffs. And no, I don't think K-Rod makes much of a difference, since he was underwhelming last year despite his guady save stats. I would expect disappointment again.

Player to watch: Jon Niese, SP
(Niese didn't have a good September appearance last year (7.07 ERA, 14 innings), but he's done well enough in the minors (3.04 ERA in the minors last year) that he should be able to have a strong rookie season with a solid K-rate. Otherwise, the Mets don't have any other clear candidates to break out yet.)

4. Florida Marlins
Don't get me wrong; I like the Marlins. Enough so, that as a team filled with young talent, I'd like to have them as a surprise pick. Their rotation is quite impressive: Ricky Nolasco (who seemed to have a great season that no one noticed), Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez. But they don't really have a stable bullpen and outside of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, they don't have any established hitters, which was only exacerbated by the offseason trades of Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham. Still, don't be surprised if they exceed expectations.

Player to watch: Jeremy Hermida, OF
(Hermida was long a top prospect who had a memorable first big-league at-bat and who looked poised to breakout after his 2007 season. However, he disappointed last year, ending up with a .249/.323/.406 line. Hermida is still only 24, has shown solid patience and power in the past and given one more opportunity, he may surprise.)

5. Washington Nationals
The Nats, after their offseason scandal ending with the firing of Jose Rijo and the resignation of Jim Bowden, seem like the most hopeless team in baseball, competing with the Padres and Pirates. Granted, they signed Adam Dunn, but I'm not sure he'll change too much since his on-base skills and powers may be of less in a lineup with little protection. It seems like it may simply be a question of how many games they'll lose. Ultimately, they seem like the hoarding ground for drama queens and headcases like Scott Olsen, Elijah Dukes, Daniel Cabrera, and others. If nothing else, maybe that will add some intrigue?

Player to watch: Elijah Dukes, OF
(He's clearly has some issues, but as many of those as he has, he is also oozing with talent. Speed, power, and patience are all there for Dukes if he can put the package together. He hit .264/.386/.478 in 276 at-bats, so it seems entirely possible that he can display star talent over the year.)

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks
I'm making this pick because I'm fairly confident in the natural growth of Arizona's top young hitters, including Chris Young, Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson. Additionally, they have some young pitching talent in Yusmeiro Petit and Max Scherzer to go with the phenomenal 1-2 punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. And while the relief corps isn't the best, arms like Tony Pena and Jon Rauch should make a successful one.

Player to watch: Chris Young, CF
(I think it would be easy to pick Justin Upton, since he's almost sure to impress, but Young seems more appropriate. He's shown plenty of talent in his two years with Diamondbacks, but he has yet to show the same combination of power, speed, and patience he showed in the minors. His BA/BIP of .300 (actually average of .248) says that he'll some luck to increase his average, but I think he's a solid bet to make a jump this year.)

2. Los Angeles Dodgers
I like that the Dodgers made some solid offseason moves, signing Manny and Orlando Hudson. Overall, that gives the Dodgers a solid lineup, adding them to the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney, and Russell Martin. However, I'm not as confident about the pitching. Chad Billingsley is an ace at this point and Clayton Kershaw has plenty of talent, but they lost their second best starter (Derek Lowe) and a successful closer in Takashi Saito and are left with options like Jeff Weaver and Randy Wolf.

Player to watch: Matt Kemp, OF
(Kemp was pretty impressive last year, combining 35 steals with 18 home runs and 38 doubles. Somehow, it wasn't noticed and Kemp was considered by some to be a disappointment. Thus, he's still a breakout candidate to me and given the talent he's shown, I think Kemp can hit 20-25 home runs, with a .300 average and 40 steals. Sounds like a stellar talent.)

3. San Francisco Giants
The Giants get this ranking almost purely on the basis of their standout rotation. They have Randy Johnson, who had quite the eye-opening season for a pitcher his age last year (173 Ks, 184 innings), joining Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in a pitcher's park. Of course, their only other big signing was Edgar Renteria, who was one of the worst everyday players in baseball last year. The Giants won't hit at all, but they'll pitch enough to be in the middle of the pack in the weak NL West.

Player to watch: Matt Cain, SP
(Let me clarify: this is mostly in response to those who think wins are the best way of statistically evaluating a pitcher's contribution to his team. That luck should change at least enough to a "breakout," as he should be able to produce double-digit wins with his talent. Otherwise, Cain can improve on his ERA by reducing a walk-rate that has not moved much at all in his first three full seasons. If he can do that, he'll probably get more strikeouts and we'll see a season representing what we've expected from him since he came up and first tantalized the league with his talent in 2005.)

4. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies certainly have some good players--young pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales and hitters like Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki. They also have mainstays like Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe, as well as ancient Rockie Todd Helton, but they really don't have enough pitching or hitting overall to have much success. Despite their success in the 2007 season, after trading their best player Matt Holliday, they appear to be in rebuilding mode yet again.

Player to watch: Chris Iannetta, C
(Iannetta seems poised for a big season from the catcher's position, as he produced a solid .264/.390/.505 line in 388 at-bats, showing great plate discipline and plenty of power for the position. He's only hit .249 so far in the bigs, but he was a .303/.407/.508 hitter in the minors, so it seems reasonable that his average will come up as well this year.)

5. San Diego Padres
I've already tagged them as one of baseball hopeless teams, so it seems clear I do not think much of them. Perhaps scanning the roster will show you why; there just isn't much there to like. Adrian Gonzalez is a very good hitter and would surely look a lot better if he wasn't in the offense-suffocating environment of Petco Park. Of course, I shouldn't underestimate them -- after all, they have David Eckstein on their team and you know all the intangibles he has. Can't measure those with stats.

Player to watch: Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
(Kouzmanoff should be a DH in the American League, and not just because he's a terrible fielder but also because he was a .292/.329/.473 hitter on road and a .226/.268/.390 hitter at Petco. Forgetting those issues, Kouzmanoff was a .332/.393/.556 in the minors. As with many of these breakout candidates, simply having a good minor league track record doesn't necessarily mean major-league success, so he could end up a bust. However, given that record, it is reasonably to believe that he'll breakout this year. Anyways, are there many other candidates on the Padres you can point to?)

Mosvick's MVPs

About a week, my colleague gave his perspective on the MVP race, largely choosing arguable choices. However, since I don't get much of a chance to post during the school year and exhausting job search, I wanted to take the weekend time to post. Plus, the Rays just lost and allowed a Game 7 against Boston to happen. Before most of (hopefully) collectively beg for Boston to lose, let me give you my version of the run-down and some of my reasons for occasionally agreeing with the other Nick.

AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins C

Its really hard for me to make the decision and be able to demand there wasn't any homerism. But, really, how much can that take away from a pretty clear-cut argument? Mr. Nelson mentioned that there are other contenders like the Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, as well as Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Justin Morneau. But what this list also emphasizes is that there wasn't a particularly strong MVP field in 2008.

This goes to two more reasons, in addition to the arguments about offensive and defensive greatness at a crucial position given by the other Nick. For one, when there isn't a strong field and there is a player having a historically great season, the vote should lean his way. In case anyone forgot, Joe Mauer is the only AL catcher to ever win a batting title (Ernie Lombardi won a batting title in the NL in 1938, hitting .342) and he has now done that twice at the age of 25. Unbelievable. Of course, this is my argument and is clearly not agreed upon by the voters. There are obviously examples like no MVP for McGwire in the 70 homer season, but only Jose Canseco won a MVP in a 40/40 campaign and there have been only four of those. The second reason is that Mauer's ability to get on base and score runs (98 of them) was a big reason for Morneau's 129 RBI that make him a contender. (For argument's sake, Mauer was even better than Morneau with runners on, but didn't have quite the amount of RBI opportunities)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 1B

There are a great many reasons to pick Pujols over many much weaker "contenders." I frankly find the argument for Ryan Howard laughable, since Chase Utley (62.2 VORP) and Jimmy Rollins (43.5 VORP) were more valuable hitters (Howard had a 35.3 VORP to go with his unsightly .251 average) and not only play more valuable defensive positions, but are actually good defensive players. Howard is a sub-par defender and Pujols is the best in the league at his position. As for VORP? Pujols is #1 in both leagues with a 96.8, way ahead of Hanley Ramirez at 80.7.

Now I am not arguing that VORP is the greatest or most useful stat, since Mauer did not lead the AL in VORP (A-Rod did) and I am still picking him. However, it still is a great tool for evaluating offensive value and, as I noted, my argument for Mauer goes beyond that. If you don't like that stat, Pujols also lead both leagues with 142 runs created and 342 total bases. He produced a total of 81 extra-base hits and arguably his best hitting line at .357/.462/.653, good for a 190 OPS plus. Pujols is simply the best hitter in the league, a very good defender, and without him, the Cardinals wouldn't have smelled the playoffs in my opinion.

AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

Its hard to pick against Cliff Lee. I hate the wins stat, because I think that the pitcher does not have much control over wins and thus it is not that useful of a statistic in analyzing who is the best pitcher. (That is, if that is how you think of Cy Young - league voting rules would agree with me)Lee also lead the league in ERA, which is more valuable than wins but still not entirely in the pitcher's control. I think Halladay cuts the lead by not only coming very close to Lee with 20 wins and a 2.78 ERA (compared to 22 and a 2.54 ERA), but also leading the league in WHIP (1.05, with Lee at 1.11), coming in third in strikeouts (206, to Lee's 170), leading the league in innings pitched at 246 (to Lee's 223 1/3), was harder to hit (.237 OBA, to Lee's .253), and had a better K/BB ratio (5.28, to Lee's 5.00).

Most of these are very close, but I feel like a few things give Halladay the edge, mostly given his lead in innings, strikeouts and opponent batting average, showing more dominance and value to his team. His Blue Jays also were in the playoff hunt, which I don't like to give a lot of credence to, but does help in a close race.

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

I thought this race was actually easy, but apparently my colleague disagrees given his vote for Brad Lidge. Granted, I said historically great seasons should get an edge in these votes if the field is not great. However, there is a difference between a catcher winning two batting titles at the age of 25 and a closer having a flawless season in terms of not blowing a save. While impressive, I just don't think they are the same ballpark. I've written on here before that saves are not only a flawed statistic, but not even a particularly good one for accessing relievers in many ways. Given that, a reliever also needs to have a incredible season for me to find them Cy Young worthy (I would have given Jason Schmidt the 2003 Cy Young over Eric Gagne, for instance) and I'm not sure Lidge had that.

On the other hand, Lincecum was far and away the best pitcher in the NL this year. He lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin with 265 (three were tied in second with 206), was second in the league with a 2.62 ERA and a 72.5 VORP (behind our old friend Johan Santana, with 73.4), was second in the league with 18 wins (on a horrible Giants team and while Brandon Webb had 22, I have gone through the limitations of wins before and Webb isn't a contender outside of his win total), first in league in hits allowed (7.22/9), first in strikeout ratio (10.51/9), and first in adjusted ERA at 164.

There were some other fine contenders and one of those I should point out is Santana. Santana had only 16 wins, but suffered through seven blow saves and countless other head-pounding games with the Mets. Outside of that, he still lead the league in ERA, had 206 Ks, and had his usual second-half run of brilliance. He isn't Cy Young, but he deserves some praise.

Rookies of the Year: Evan Longeria, Tampa Bay Rays and Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

I won't spend much time on these because neither are too hard of choices. Each pick was clearly the best rookie in their respective league. Both played particularly good defense for important positions (though catcher is more valuable than third-base) and each had standout statistics at the plate, with Longeria tallying 27 home runs and 85 RBI after starting the year in Triple-A and Soto having 23 home runs and 86 RBI. Honorable mentions go to Mike Aviles of the Royals and Joey Votto of the Reds.

Another opportunity lost

There was some mystery to the Twins offense last night. Whats the mystery here? The mystery is discovering how the Twins offense managed to score five runs against the Blue Jays last night, in a loss nonetheless, without a single extra-base hit. One run can across on a wild pitch, another on a sacrifice fly, and one more on a two-out single by Delmon Young. In total, though, the Twins had nine singles and two walks, but still seemed lucky to get the five runs they did, even though their two stolen bases also helped them.

Of course, while the offense didn't pack too much punch in providing a solid amount of run support, the pitching staff's failure may be the bigger story of the loss. In a game in which a win would have given the Twins the lead in the AL central, the pitching staff was the true culprit, allowing 17 hits and three walks for a total of 20 baserunners while giving up seven runs. Therefore, the pitching staff was also somewhat lucky in that they didn't manage to give up more runs, helped by the Blue Jays offense leaving seven baserunners in scoring position with two outs.

Five of the Blue Jays hits went for extra-bases, including three home runs, two off of starter Glen Perkins, who did not look very good at all. Perkins' line is quite ugly: 5 innings, 10 hits, 4 earned runs, one walk, and one strikeout. In other words, Perkins was constantly putting on baserunners, getting hit hard, and was not showing any dominance at all. This may be somewhat closer to the real Perkins fans should expect, since his season stats are anything but impressive.

Sure, Perkins has a 12-3 record, but anyone reading this site knows that we do not consider a win-loss record to be that helpful in evaluate a pitcher's success, his future potential, or his efficiency. In 136 2/3 innings, Perkins has given up 160 hits, 20 home runs, and 62 earned runs (for a 4.08 ERA) while striking out 64 and walking 34. The walk rate is fine and above average, but a strikeout rate of 4.31/9 is terrible and a 1.39 WHIP is bad as well.

Fans should note that Perkins' xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) is 4.94, well above his current ERA, which that Perkins has certainly be lucky and regression towards the mean should not be surprising. In fact, if there is one young pitcher he seems bound to disappoint fans, at least somewhat, its Perkins, because he has the worst peripherals of anyone in the rotation and stats like xFIP suggest that fans should lower their expectations. Unfortunately, it comes at a bad time, as the Twins have often been in close games like yesterday's lately that they have lost.

Of course, I cannot put the blame purely on Perkins' woeful starting pitching. Boof Bonser also gave up a two-run home run in relief and Matt Guerrier continued to get beaten around, giving up three hits and a run in just 2/3 innings. (In fairness, he had 5 1/3 scoreless innings before last night, so he hasn't been utterly hittable of late, but his second half regression is hardly a secret) But the remedies to continue winning are simple and hard at the same time: the Twins need more consistent punch and the offense isn't going to win many games without hitting extra-base hits, but the pitching staff also needs to do its job more consistently. Its too bad, then, that it still appears that in some instances, fans may need to lower expectations and face some stubborn realities.

Unimportant History

Over the weekend, the Twins took a tough split against one of the league's best teams. Last night, they watched their bullpen once again blow a lead against one of the league's worst teams. Sigh.

Beyond some recent tough losses, recently there has been even more of a sense of annoyance. Annoyance at having to continuously face the onslaught of major media stories about Fransisco Rodriguez's "historical run" at Bobby Thigpen's save record.

It's true that the relative unimportance of this record has already been tackled by many major writers, but it's hard to ignore when the only real story over the weekend seemed to have been Rodriguez's 49th and 50th saves. The most common point to make, and perhaps the most important thing, is that Rodriguez's talent has nothing to do with the production of save opportunities that has allowed him to make a run at the record. A combination of luck, an often mediocre offense, and a great pitching staff outside of K-Rod helped produce the 55 save opportunities that have allowed Rodriguez to make this run.

This brings up several points to consider. One is that the save itself and the save opportunity is usually converted and the statistic itself isn't all that meaningful. The majority of three-run and even two-run leads are saved. Therefore, as a raw number, the amount of saves is not as important as save percentage. Granted, 50/55 save opportunities amounts to around a 91% save percentage, which is very good. However, our own Joe Nathan (92.1%), Joakim Soria (92.3%) and Mariano Rivera (97%) have significantly higher save percentages. What is the difference? Nathan has had 38 save opportunities and Rivera only 33. In fact, Rodriguez has had 16 more save opportunities than anyone else in the majors.

That certainly seems to suggest that Rodriguez's pursuit is not any more impressive than what Brad Lidge has done this year, converting all 31 save opportunities has had for the Phillies. In fact, that arguably not only makes Lidge the better closer, but also the more valuable one. Same goes for Soria, Nathan, and Rivera. All three AL closers listed have WHIPs below 1, with Rivera's 0.72 blowing the competition away. What is Rodriguez's? An ugly 1.27, which is also reflected by his mediocre 62/29 K/BB ratio, or 2.14. Nathan's is an impressive 4.69, but Rivera's in an outerwordly 11.17 or 67/6.

Which once again begs another question. Why aren't fans also discussing what might be Nathan's best relief year, with sub-1.00 ERA currently (and now a 1.13 ERA partially thanks to Nick Punto's infallible defense). And why aren't fans discussing how Rivera, at 38, is also possibly having his best year, with opponents "hitting" .175/.205/.257 this year to go with a 1.53 ERA. Each are having incredible years, but have gone relatively unnoticed because while they convert saves better than Rodriguez, they just don't have that counting stat the media seems so obsessed with. Eventually, fans might lose their affinity for the overrated save, but for now, it is making a lot more news then it should, leaving better stories in the dust.

* Twins fans may have noticed the return of a familiar face to the bullpen via the trade. Eddie Guardado was acquired from the Texas Rangers for minor-league closer Mark Hamburger. (As a fun fact, Hamburger was not drafted, but rather signed through a Twins tryout camp, after displaying a mid-90s fastball.) Guardado is nothing near the All-Star closer the Twins had back in 2002 and 2003, as he only has 28 strikeouts (versus 17 walks) in 49 1/3 innings, which is not too impressive and suggests he's been somewhat lucky, but he also has only given up 38 hits. More importantly, while he is killing lefties (.167/.521 OPS), righties are not knocking him around too badly either (.252/.721).

Guardado was able to quickly help the Twins last night, working a quick, scoreless eighth inning. It will continue to occur to many Twins fans that the front office could have made claims on superior bullpen help, like Chad Bradford, but trading for Guardado while giving up very little is at least a solid move for the club. Guardado doesn't strike me as the solution to the eighth inning, but he may be a better option than anyone else at this point and any improvement is good with just over a month to go in the season.

* I won't comment too much on last night's game, as I was unable to finish it due to the sleep deprivation caused by law school interview season. However, watching the Twins offense flounder against Miguel Bastita was frankly embarrassing. They should have been able to produce more run support for Fransisco Liriano against one of baseball's worst starting pitchers. And seeing that Jesse Crain gave up a walk-off home run only increases my own worries about the bullpen. Clearly, there is only one reliable member and its not Crain.

While I am at it, though, I should point out that after a solid start last night, Liriano's ERA dropped to 3.83, giving the Twins a rotation of starters all with ERAs under four. (Baker; 3.74, Perkins; 3.90, Blackburn; 3.78, Slowey 3.74.) In terms of ERA, no one in the group particularly stands out, but having five young starters capable of putting up solid to outstanding numbers can only bode well for the future of the franchise.

Its too bad, then, that the media is largely missing this story as well, as shown by this response to a chat with Jayson Stark to a question by a Twins fan about why the Twins five-man rotation isn't considered amongst the best:

" Jayson Stark: I hear you, Chris. But I go back to my point about the Phillies. These guys have been unbelievable strike-throwing machines. But pretty much this whole rotation consists of guys who the Twins hope will keep them in the game. And that's not normally a formula for October success. Having Joe Nathan on your team IS a formula for October success, but we're not debating bullpens or whole staffs this week. "

I'll grant that I'm glad Stark recognizes the great Nathan, and generally I like Stark as a writer, especially considering that he actually mentioned VORP in the introduction to his chat, but I'm not sure that I'd consider the rotation a group of starters that you hope will win you a game. Maybe that is the case with guys like Blackburn and Perkins, but Baker, Liriano, and Slowey have legitimately dominated teams this year and should continue to do so. Hopefully this is another story the larger baseball media recognizes soon enough.

Parallel Universe

The Twins team must have entered some vortex. Actually, let me display some fine nerdom here and make a bold science fiction reference: perhaps they impossibly stumbled on the mystery of the universe and discovered a wormhole, entering, just as Hawking (yes, the "guy in the wheelchair") predicted, a parallel universe of sorts, as time and space mix. Or, let's just say, for simplicitly's sake, an alternate universe.

Because the Twins team that won last night didn't look like the miserable offense that lost to a team that was 5-23 since the All-Star break Monday night. Instead, the Twins team last night not only pounded the A's pathetic pitching for 13 runs, but starter Kevin Slowey also seemed to similarly entered a wormhole, because after getting only three strikeouts in his previous two starts, including just one in his last start, Slowey struck out 12 Oakland hitters in seven innings, and didn't walk a batter. Most might assume that the strikeouts were strikeouts looking, as recent evidence given by Ubelmann at SBG would suggest, but ten of twelve were strikeouts swinging. Needless to say, it was an interesting and dominating performance for the young pitcher, lowering his ERA to an impressive 3.78.

Really, of course, what I should be saying is that the Twins on Monday were in an alternate universe, because the offense has been above average this season and frankly should not have stumbled against what is currently one of the worst teams in the majors. On the other hand, it can be argued that some players weren't quite themselves last night, either, with Carlos Gomez hitting his first home run in over two months (since June 6th) and Brian Buscher going 3-for-5 with five RBI and a two-run home run.

Hopefully, the Twins can stay in that part of the baseball universe today and continue to redeem themselves after Monday night's embarrassing loss.

Persisting Issues

While the Twins offense poured it on the Mariners yesterday in completing a sweep at the Metrodome, a persisting issue was painfully clear amidst the victory that should be discussed before any other topics: the bullpen.

After Glen Perkins gave up three home runs in the sixth inning, which in and of itself was a disappointment, Boof Bonser came in the game for the seventh, only to promptly serve up three hits and two runs, including a Raul Ibanez RBI double. (Ibanez, by the way, has destroyed Twins pitching this year, at a 13-for-19 clip, with two doubles, two home runs, and 12 RBI.) Bonser was replaced by Matt Guerrier in the eight, who continued his trek to completely unreliable, getting only one out while giving up one hit, two runs, and two walks. Guerrier's ERA now stands at an ugly 4.94, having given up a shocking 12 earned runs in just 5 1/3 August innings and 15 earned runs in 11 post-All Star break innings.

If any one particular member of the bullpen stands out in terms of the current obvious issues, it's Guerrier. But the bullpen's failings didn't stop with Guerrier last night, as Dennys Reyes came in and allowed an inherited runner to score with some help from Brendan Harris' mediocre arm. Of course, once Joe Nathan came in with the bases loaded, the fire was finally put out with a strikeout of Adrian Beltre. Nathan completed a scoreless ninth for his 33rd save, but his dominance is practically a given at this point. Unfortunately, it seems that he is also the only known quantity right now.

Needless to say, the bullpen allowing a 10-4 lead to quickly shrink to 10-8 speaks volumes about the principle issue for the Twins right now. We have often pointed this out on this blog, but it is a persisting issue that cannot be ignored when the problem is slapping the team in the face. Thankfully, the offense was out in full force against a terrible Mariners pitching staff.

The duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau powered the lineup over the weekend sweep, going a combined 9-for-22 with two home runs, six walks, eight runs scored, and eight RBI. Now, while Mauer and Morneau's offensive dominance is expected by most Twins fans, we may have lost the biggest offensive star of the weekend in the wake: Jason Kubel. Kubel went 8-for-10 with six RBI, one home run, two doubles, and five runs scored, raising his line to .278/.339/.486.

With high expectations over the years, sometimes Kubel's offensive production has been minimized, but enough cannot be said about a .486 SLG from a Twins hitter not named Mauer or Morneau with the majority of his at-bats coming at the DH position. An .825 OPS is not only impressive for a Twin, but is even more impressive given how offense is down throughout the major leagues.

Granted, the Twins should beat up on what might be the worst team in the majors, but beating up on the Mariners also meant that the Twins managed to tie with the White Sox for first place and stay there. The offensive output was certainly positive, but fans should keep in mind that the persisting bullpen issues haven't even gone away in wins and may remain the major obstacle to the Twins post-season chances.

Delmon Young: Clutch Hero?

Since the trade this last winter involving Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Jason Pridie, Eduardo Morlan, and Brendan Harris, Delmon Young was on a steady slope downhill in the opinion of most Twins fans and for the right reasons. Young was not delivering on most of his promise. Sure, he had a decent average, but he was still showing little patience, despite improving it over his terrible career discipline, little for power, and his defense was nothing pretty to watch. In fact, Young entered the month of August with a pitiful four home runs.

However, in just a week, that has changed very quick. Yesterday, after his heroics Tuesday night off of all-time closer Mariano Rivera, Young came up again with a huge blast, smashing a Darrell Rasner offering to right field just over the baggie for a three-run homer that would give the Twins a lead they never relinquished. In his last six games, Young is hitting 9-for-25 with three homers, eight RBI, a double, and a much more powerful swing than we have been used to over the course of the year. Is it possible that Young is finally showing the power he's supposedly had since he was drafted or is this all a week-long facade that will quickly fade and be forgotten?

Let's keep in mind that even with his recent power surge, he still only has seven homers and is hitting .290/.336/.407 overall. However, in 88 at-bats since the All-Star break, he also has a OPS over .800, and has already hit more home runs than he had (3) in 339 pre-break at bats. Of course, its also worth pointing out that more thorough researchers than myself, like Aaron Gleeman, have rightfully observed that Young show a steady decline in power in the minors before he even reached the minors. The counter-point is that Young was always young for whatever level he was at, reaching the majors at just 20.

Therefore, its probably way too early to conclude much of anything from such a small sample size and it could very easily be facade. At the same time, a small sample size like this can at least suggest slow, steady improvements from a very young player. Young may not become a 40 home run masher and his progress may ultimately be stalled by lack of plate discipline, but small improvements in patience and power nonetheless can be seen in Young's second half so far and, if Twins fans show enough patience, a good and even possibly great hitter may emerge in the coming years.

The Yankees series, then they might say, is just a taste of things to come.

Good to be Home

After a sloppy weekend series against the Royals, embodied by the very weak play of both Adam Everett and Nick Punto, the Twins garnered a very solid victory over the Yankees yesterday. Rather than discuss Everett's self-admittedly fluke home run that barely made the stands, the aspects of this game that deserve analysis are Glen Perkins' awesome start, the hustle of Denard Span and the overall play of the team. It would seem that Everett's homer comes as a timely slap in the face to my colleague who ripped on the shortstop in this space yesterday, but I am not ready to get too excited about a guy with a .213/.276/.351 hitting line.

Perkins didn't display outstanding control (70 strikes to 37 balls, three walks), but he only allowed four hits in eight innings while striking out four and picking up his ninth win, giving him a 9-3 record. Nothing in his numbers screams dominance, as he's allowed 129 hits in 110 2/3 innings with only 56 strikeouts against 29 walks. It feels like his success isn't terribly sustainable, given that he's a fly ball pitcher (0.90 groundball-to-flyball ratio) who doesn't rack up strikeouts, but to his credit last night's terrific start ended a short slump and brought his ERA back down to 4.07.

Span was probably the brightest offensive star, showing great hustle on the basepaths and scoring two of the Twins runs to help secure a victory. In the sixth inning, Span doubled, moved over on a Punto sacrifice, and scored on a Joe Mauer sacrifice fly. More impressive, though, was scoring from second on a infield hit by Justin Morneau in the eighth inning, adding a run that all but sealed the victory. Otherwise, the Twins didn't do too much against Sidney Ponson, but at least they finally scored a victory against the former Twins hurler.

In the end, though its disappointing that the Twins are a much more solid, fundamentally sound team at home while being a frustrating enigma on the road, at least they seem to be getting the job done against all comers -- including potent squads like the Yankees -- in their home stadium.

That home cooking will be put to the test tonight with Mike Mussina, a career Twins-killer, on the hill against Nick Blackburn.

On the Edge

I feel like there has been a strong commonality between the two games the Twins have played in this series, and that is that they have not been able to put away the obviously weak Mariners. Specifically, there were two common themes: bad defense and starting pitchers living on the edge, only to be replaced by relief pitchers that have largely failed as of late.

While only one error was made, the Twins still made several mistakes in the field, including bad plays from Delmon Young and Brian Buscher. Just as some bad defense added to the issues in Monday night's loss, they certainly did not help last night either, but it isn't really news to Twins fans paying attention that the defense of this team is often porous.

As for the starting pitching, just like Glen Perkins on Monday (13 base-runners, 6 1/3 innings), Scott Baker put way too many Seattle hitters on base, allowing a total of 11 base-runners and paying for it, ultimately giving up four runs before leaving with a 4-3 deficit, only to watch Craig Breslow quickly give up a two-run single to Raul Ibanez (with both runs being charged to Baker). Later, when the Twins offense finally rallied for a 7-6 lead, beating around Seattle's bullpen, Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan blew the lead to give Seattle the win, with Nathan giving up the game-winning, two-run double to Jose Lopez and Guerrier getting charged with the runs, bringing his ERA to a not-so-stellar 4.25.

With that, Baker's ERA has now risen to 3.86 and has gone up each of the last three starts after reaching a season low of 3.26, as he's given up 13 runs in his last 16 1/3 innings, with an uncharacteristic eight walks. The best you can say is that he's struck out 17 over that time as well, still displaying good stuff, but his recent run is troublesome.

While it's been easy to blame the recent atrocious work of much of the bullpen, especially on the road, it's worth noting, through these observations, that the Twins starting pitching has certainly struggled so far in the Seattle series and that may not bode well for a team that is going to spend a significant amount of this month on the road. The positive remains that the Twins offense hasn't totally stalled at the same time, as they scored six runs on Monday night and saw some positives last night as well, most particularly with Jason Kubel smashing his 15th and 16th home runs. Let's just hope Nick Blackburn breaks the pattern of poor starting pitching this afternoon.

Picking on the Meek

Last night, the Twins' 6-1 lead was looking pretty good until Glen Perkins gave up a grand slam to Raul Ibanez and Brian Bass was stupidly allowed to come into another high leverage situation in which he, not surprisingly, quickly gave up the lead. Things deteriorated quickly, and a humiliating 10-run seventh inning ultimately led to an 11-6 Twins loss. With that, the most general and best conclusion I can make about the game is that the Twins, simply put, should be doing their jobs.

The Mariners are, at this point, more than just a bad team. They are a depressing team that has no sense of direction and that may become the first team ever to lose 100 games with a payroll north of $100 million. Of course, the Mariners aren't alone in paying for futility, as teams like the Houston Astros have paid plenty for losing and embarrassing teams.

As a team, the Mariners' hitting is pretty embarrassing, with a team .695 OPS and .259 average. One might think that with hitters like Ichiro Suzuki and Adrian Beltre this would be untrue, but those players are not having overwhelming years at all, with Suzuki's OPS at .743 and Beltre's at .756. The team's best hitter, in fact, has been Ibanez, with a .281/.347/.464 line, and he was almost traded at the deadline. The pitching, outside of Felix Hernandez and young flamethrower Brandon Morrow, has also been quite mediocre, with "standouts" like Carlos Silva and last night's starter, Miguel Batista.

What is the point? This is certainly a team that fans should expect the Twins to knock around, especially if the offense has truly improved, as some numbers suggest, and the young pitching is as good as they appear to be. While it should be expected, it still would certainly be nice to see the Twins take care of business the way they could have last night.

Perkins was having a good start, until he ran into a lot of trouble in seventh inning, resulting in the slam given up to Ibanez. In total, Perkins tossed 6 1/3 innings, giving up an ugly 12 hits and five runs with only two strikeouts and a walk. Perkins always appeared to be walking a fine line and it appears that some of his luck may have run out.

As for the offense, hits were well-distributed, with Justin Morneau picking up a two-run double as well as picking up two walks on the night, Joe Mauer picking up two hits and a run, and even Nick Punto smacking his second home run of the year along with two walks. In fact, if one thing stands out, its the patience, as the Twins picked up eight walks on the night, with even the less-patient portion of the lineup getting in on the walk-fest, with Delmon Young, Mike Lamb, and Brian Buscher taking free passes against the unfortunate Mariners staff.

With that, I now wake up roundly disappointed. The Twins offense did their job against mediocre pitching, but the Twins pitching did not. I'm afraid that, the way things look right now, it will be hard to look back on this game without thinking that Ron Gardenhire once again made the mistake of trusting Bass with a lead. However, while Bass can be blamed for giving up the lead, the Twins porous defense and pitching did nothing to stop the bleeding. A few singles, a Denard Span throwing error, and a Brendon Harris throwing error, and suddenly the Mariners had a five-run lead. Humiliating, embarrassing, and disappointing are all words that can describe last night's lost, but its just as good to say that the Twins failed to do their jobs in not doing what they should and need to be able to do: beat terrible teams.

Return of the Power?

There was something unusual about the Twins victory last night. In the course of beating the Chicago White Sox 10-6 and taking the series 3-1, the Twins got six of their runs on two big two-out hits. Both Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel had huge, three-run homers, with Kubel's giving the Twins the lead for good in the seventh inning when he took Octavio Dotel deep.

Considering that they came into the game 29th in the majors (above the lowly Giants, who have only 61) with just 73 homers (though that number shot up to 28th after this game), getting two huge blasts like that not only feels like an aberration, but is awfully surprising. Of course, it is not surprising in that Morneau and Kubel hit them, considering they are the only two legitimate home-run threats in the lineup, only that the Twins won the way that they did. This should only give fans appreciation for the importance of not only Morneau's bat in the lineup, but Kubel's power, which can be key to offense's success when considering the void in the lineup of any other power source.

Of course, just discussing the power surge and the general offensive display last night would miss some other important storylines:

* Once again, despite some struggles, Scott Baker showed why he is likely the ace of the this staff last night and more than likely has the best stuff of any starting pitcher on the team. Baker went six innings, gave up five hits, four runs, and three walks, but he also struck out eight batters, showing good life on his fastball and an excellent slider that was getting many Chicago hitters to swing and miss. After last night's start, Baker has an excellent and very impressive 7.85 K/9 rate to go along with a outstanding 89/21 K/BB ratio.

* The Twins, not surprisingly, did not make any moves of the deadline. This may upset some fans, and rightfully so, as they did not pursue any of their targets, be it Brian Roberts or Adrian Beltre, with any lasting speed. However, the Twins appear on the verge of finally making one big and key internal move: La Velle E. Neal III reports that the Twins will likely eat the rest of Livan Hernandez's contract and designate him for assignment very soon so that they can make room in the rotation for Francisco Liriano.

Now to some, this might feel as good as a trade, but the fact remains that the Twins should have made this move earlier to say give them a chance for a sweep against their divisional foe this week and be in command of first place, instead of back a half game. Nonetheless, its a very important move to make and is just as exciting as a good trade. There is no way yet to know how effective Liriano is going to be once the move is actually made, but there is no doubt that he will not put up stats that would put him on pace to give up the most hits in a season in three decades.

* On a final note, the White Sox did make a big move of their own yesterday by competing in the headlines with the Manny Ramirez trade when they dealt two marginal players for Ken Griffey, Jr. Some fans may be worried that getting such a prestigious name as Griffey means that the White Sox will now run off with the division, but that is simply not the case. Griffey sports a .245/.355/.432 line this year with the advantage of playing in the Great American Ballpark. Yes, a .787 OPS is nothing terrible, but it's nothing to get excited about either. Griffey, with his diminishing skill-set, has gained patience recently, but with it, he's lost a lot in average and power. Keep in mind that Nick Swisher is batting .230/.348/.404 and he also has 15 home runs this year.

Yes, Griffey could get hot and do a lot for the White Sox, but he's also 38 years old and might be asked to play center field when he is already a sub-par fielder in right. If he was being brought over to DH, maybe it would be different, but the White Sox already have a good DH in Jim Thome. This deal might sound like a lot to think about, but the White Sox probably didn't improve that much and now they just have a lot of invitees to an ongoing game of musical chairs, especially if they think they are going sit a guy with a $60 million contract in Paul Konerko.

Pen Revival

Lately on this blog, we have had many posts discussing the numerous problems with bullpen, as well as small sample sizes as a means of assessment. I am certainly one who subscribes to the notion that you can't take too much out of a small sample size, because there is probably too much chance involved to be sure if the success you are seeing is truly sustainable.

At the same time, there can be nothing wrong with basking in the glow of immediate returns in short term as long as the basic principles of sustainability are kept in the background. With that in mind, its fairly certain that the MVP of last night's game was the Twins bullpen, which kept a close game going long enough for the Twins to get the insurance they needed to pull out a 6-5 victory that brought them within a 1/2 game of the Pale Hosers.

Jesse Crain, Dennys Reyes, Matt Guerrier, and Joe Nathan combined for three innings of solid relief work that -- while not dominating -- was effective. With two strikeouts via Guerrier, three hits allowed, and only one walk, the bullpen earned three "holds" and a save, despite the solo home run that Nathan allowed to Nick Swisher to bring the game within a run in the ninth. With so much negativity surrounding the bullpen situation lately, it felt almost necessary to give the unit its due when it did its job in preserving an important Twins lead and playing a significant role in a victory.

Of course, the bullpen was not the only player in the victory, as Glen Perkins did manage to battle through six innings to pick up his eighth victory, even though he was not terribly effective as shown by the nine base-runners he allowed. The offense was also not fantastic, despite scoring six runs, as they only had nine hits -- only one for extra-bases -- to go with two walks, but they made up for this deficit the way they have most of the year with an incredible five two-out RBI, two from Joe Mauer and three from Justin Morneau on a key three-run double in the fifth.

Tonight, the Twins face perhaps their biggest challenge of the series in Gavin Floyd. Floyd has gotten fairly lucky this year, with a very unimpressive 85/53 K/BB ratio (though he does have 10 wins, so there is no doubt his success is sustainable), a 4.95 FIP, a 4.76 xFIP, and a 4.80 RA that does not scream dominance by most standards, despite having only allowed 100 hits in 123 innings, but rather an extreme amount of luck. Nonetheless, the Twins have struggled against him this year, only managing to put up six runs and twelve hits in 21 1/3 innings so far this year. Of course, given these statistics, luck may finally show up on the Twins side and if that is the case, they could be divisional leaders by the end of the night.

Reversal of Fortunes

At the end of last week, things seemed pretty down for the Twins. After a brutal three-game sweep at Yankee Stadium, things started out poorly against the Indians in Cleveland on Friday, when the Twins lost a close game 5-4. For starting pitcher Livan Hernandez, it wasn't exactly a case of bad luck, as he allowed 15 baserunners in eight innings, including 12 hits, four of which went for extra-bases. For the Twins hitters, until Justin Morneau's ninth-inning. two-run homer, swung with futility against lefty Cliff Lee, striking out 10 times and walking no times, managing only two runs against the Cy Young contender.

However, luck did turn around the last two games. The Twins greeted Fausto Carmona's return to the mound with a fervant onslaught, eviscerating Carmona's pitching for 9 runs in just 2 2/3 innings, with seven hits and three walks, including a Brian Buscher three-run blast to knock Carmona out of the game. In total, the Twins offense managed 15 hits and four walks Saturday night, the stars being Buscher, with his 3-for-5 night and five RBI, Delmon Young, who went 3-for-5 with two RBI, and Justin Morneau, who went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks, and two runs scored.

Yesterday, the Twins offense didn't blow anyone out of the water, but they did rally in a very encouraging way. With the game tied in the ninth and lefty closer Rafael Perez on the mound, Morneau, who came into the game 1-for-8 against Perez, belted a game-winning double to center. Jason Kubel followed up with his own RBI single off the lefty. Anytime the Twins lefties hitters are doing that well against a tough lefty pitcher, then you know that things are looking up for the team. Here are a few other notes on the weekend:

* Yesterday's game also featured plenty of good pitching. Nick Blackburn bounced back from a rough start against the Yankees that featured some ugly defense by getting the opposite play behind him. Blackburn went seven innings, allowing only four hits and a walk while striking out three, lowering his ERA to 3.68. Of course, the two amazing catches by Denard Span certainly helped things. Span had quite the weekend in center field filling in for Carlos Gomez, who hurt himself Friday night making his own spectacular, athletic catch before hurting a disk in his back when he collided with the wall.

* Beyond the great starting pitching and the stellar defense of Span, one depressing statistic still lurks. Joe Nathan picked up his 28th save yesterday and with a scoreless inninig, dropped his ERA to a eye-popping 1.05. That goes along with a 0.91 WHIP and a 47/11 K/BB ratio in 42 2/3 innings. What is the problem? The continued underuse of Nathan, who has only three appearances in nine games since the return from the All-Star game. Nathan remains on pace for only 65 innings, so it is about time that Gardy starts to get slightly more flexible in his use, as Nathan could easily survive 70 or even a few more innings just fine, while increasing the Twins chances of winning in any close game.

* Lost in the 11-4 offensive shelling of Saturday night was good pitching from both Scott Baker and most of the Twins bullpen. Any improvement in the bullpen is good news for Twins fan, though its not all that meaningful that Brian Bass or Craig Breslow had solid scoreless innings in low-pressure situations. That is in fact the only places they have had much success this year. Baker, on the other hand, continues to show up as the Twins ace. Baker only pitched five innings Saturday, but he did manage to dominate many Indians hitters, striking out five. Overall, his numbers look impressive across the board, with a 3.38 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, a .242 BAA, and a 81/18 B/KK ratio in 96 innings. Easily, the B/KK ratio is the most impressive statistic for a young pitcher, as it bodes very well for his future.

Today, the Twins will start an important four-game series against the White Sox at the Metrodome, starting with a matchup of Kevin Slowey and Mark Buerhle tonight. Hopefully, the Twins bats keep up some success against lefties and that may well happen, since the Twins have hit Buerhle well this year, with 16 hits and two homers in 13 2/3 innings against him this year, giving him a 5.27 ERA against the Twins so far in 2008.

Bronx Bombed

After a good series against the Texas Rangers over the weekend, the Twins dropped an egg last night against the Yankees, losing 12-4. Unfortunately, there aren't too many positives to pull out of the game, but there are plenty of observations to consider:

* Admittedly, it's hard these days to continue to defend Boof Bonser when he seems to give up runs and hits every time he's on the hill. And that would be reality, not merely perception, as he's given up runs in seven of his last eleven appearances. With his ERA now at a sky-high 6.59, things continue to look bad for Boof. The positive, as with most of his ugly appearances, is that he's at least showing some signs of potential, as he struck out three hitters in the 3 1/3 innings he pitched. Also, no one can deny some bad luck, which was clear on hits like Johnny Damon's soft pop fly RBI double.

* Nick Blackburn also ran into some bad luck, which has been somewhat the story of his season. Blackburn's 7-6 record is not necessarily indicative of his quality of pitching and last night offers at least some examples of that issue. Alexi Casilla's error that continued the rough second inning stands out, but the defense for the Twins in general wasn't particularly good last night. Of course, there is nothing the defense can do about certain things, like Alex Rodriguez's two-run homer.

* Losing twice to Sidney Ponson is something that has to hurt for Twins, as much as it hurts as a fan. The previous loss was certainly more embarrassing, as the Twins managed only six hits in a complete game victory for Ponson, but this time around wasn't much better because there was a lack of execution as evidenced by scoring only three runs off of Ponson despite putting 11 base-runners on in 5 2/3 innings.

* Denard Span continued his impressive hitting last night, going 3-for-4 with the Twins' only two extra-base hits, with a double and a triple. Span still only has 85 at-bats, but that .329/.424/.429 line is looking pretty good right now. I may have pegged him to disappoint in the second half, but Span is still showing a solid stick and should have a line Twins fans can be satisfied with by the end of the year.

* Alexi Casilla is the only other Twin to really have much of a night on offense. He went 3-for-5 with two RBI and a run scored. While his .320 average is looking good right now, it does still conceal a lack of power and patience. The lack of power is something Twins can easily look over, but Casilla is going to have to start improving his walk rate at the top of the order. His OBP is not embarrassing at all (.358), but being projected for only 32 walks is, as evidenced by a meager .038 Isolated Discipline.

* Tonight, the Twins put Kevin Slowey on the hill. Slowey's last start was terrible, when his ERA jumped from 3.78 to 4.26 after giving up six runs to the Tigers in only 3 2/3 innings. Though he wasn't much better in the start before, he had been excellent in four starts between June 13 and June 29. Hopefully, Slowey can get back on track tonight, as he has shown a good ability to bounce back from the few terrible starts he has had this year.