Ken Rosenthal is one of the most respected baseball writers in the country, and rightfully so. His work for FoxSports.com is typically outstanding, and when it comes to mainstream baseball writers there are few that I respect more.
His latest column on Twins outfield Delmon Young misses the mark though, in my opinion.
That's because Rosenthal prefaces an otherwise fine (if formulaic) article about Young's development with this assertion: "This season he is arguably the Twins’ most valuable player — yes, even over catcher Joe Mauer — and a top MVP candidate in the American League."
Rosenthal's assessment of Young as an MVP candidate is clearly based mostly -- if not entirely -- upon the outfielder's RBI total. Yes, Young leads the Twins with 86 runs driven in. And yes, that production has been critical in a season where the Twins have seen their usual run-producing machine (Justin Morneau) sit on the shelf for six weeks and counting.
But Young's overall performance has been far from elite. He ranks fourth on his own team in OPS, with an .866 mark that is very good but hardly spectacular for a corner outfielder. His continued inability to draw walks has limited him to a relatively modest .349 on-base percentage despite his outstanding .317 batting average. His 15 home runs, while a career high, hardly paint him as a top-of-the-line power hitter.
His RBI total, buoyed by a clearly unsustainable .378 batting average with runners in scoring position, has allowed him to stand out on a club that has often had trouble coming up with big hits in key situations. But in the grand scheme of things, Young still only ranks sixth in the AL in RBI, and that's with his blistering production in July that has predictably teetered off already. Young has driven in only five runs in 16 August games after plating 30 in August, and yet somehow the Twins have managed to keep winning.
I don't mean to belittle Young's offensive progress. Despite his lack of meaningful strides in terms of plate discipline, Young has clearly developed into a more powerful force at the plate. He's not necessarily choosing better pitches to swing at, but he's been able to make better contact with pitches out of the zone, and that's a legitimate skill.
The biggest flaw in Young's game, however, is one that Rosenthal completely overlooks: his defense. Young is a disaster in left field, which has been costly this season as several of the team's fly ball pitchers have struggled. It is because of Young's ineptitude in the field (along with the fact that he plays a non-valuable position to begin with) that he ranks 37th in the American League in FanGraphs.com's Wins Above Replacement metric, which accounts for defense.
I'm not a person who believes that WAR is the be-all, end-all statistic by which to judge a player's value (Denard Span, for instance, ranks ahead of Young by this metric, which is silly), but that's stark. The damage Young does on defense cuts into his offensive value, which on its own would not put him in the MVP conversation.
Young has emerged this season as the competent right-handed bat the Twins have been looking for. He has certainly provided a lot of value to this club and should continue to do so down the stretch. There are several players on the Twins' roster, however, who have been more vital to the team's success, and there are easily more than a dozen players in the American League who have been more valuable.
Had Young's July hot streak carried forth all the way to the end of the season, there may have been some reasonable argument to be made for him being a "top MVP candidate" based on his offensive merits alone. As it stands, the inevitable cold spell seems to have fallen upon Young and his defensive warts have been as apparent as ever. He's still only 24 and can keep on improving, but at this point he's just a good player on a good team that belongs nowhere near the MVP conversation.
Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MVP. Show all posts
Friday, August 20, 2010
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Joe Mauer: AL MVP
When Joe Mauer's first swing of the 2009 season sent a ball sailing over the left field wall in the Metrodome, one got the sense that this was going to be a special year. Mauer missed the entire month of April due to a back injury, but in a way that might have been a blessing because his absence made local fans all the more appreciative of what he brought to the table once he finally was able to take the field. Even with a month's worth of missed games, there is no taking for granted what Mauer was able to accomplish this season, and fortunately the BBWAA voters saw it the same way as they awarded the Twins catcher with his first American League MVP award yesterday.
It had been widely assumed that Mauer would capture this honor ever since he batted .354 in September/October to put the finishing touches on a dazzling season and help launch his team to an improbable postseason berth, but yesterday it became official. Mauer becomes the fifth Twins player to win an MVP award, and the second in the past four years.
By now you're probably familiar with the numbers, but let's break them down again quickly. Mauer hit .365/.444/.587, leading the league in all three categories to capture the so-called "Sabermetric Triple Crown." He overcame a historical lack of power by bashing 28 home runs -- more than double his previous career high -- and drove in 96 runs while scoring 94 times. He walked more than he struck out (76/63). He hit .377 against right-handed pitchers and .345 against lefties. He posted a 1.067 OPS with runners in scoring position. It was a remarkable offensive season from just about any angle, and he did it all while putting in over 900 innings at the most demanding defensive position on the field. And while one can use the missed time early in the season as a mark against him, it's worth noting that Mauer was essentially an iron man after coming off the DL, resting less frequently than he ever has in the past and even catching both games of a crucial double-header late in the year. Even though he missed the entire month of April, Mauer played in 138 games and made 606 plate appearances; over the four seasons prior, he had averaged 131 games and 566 plate appearances.
Anyone with a working brain would have recognized Mauer as the AL's best player this year regardless of how the MVP voting results played out, but nevertheless it was quite encouraging to see Mauer place first on 27 of the 28 ballots while Mark Teixeira and his league-leading RBI total did not get one first-place vote. The ability of the BBWAA voters in this instance to look past traditional stats that tell you less about the performance of an individual player and more about the performances of his teammates, as they did with the Cy Young voting, represents refreshing progress.
Of course, the one downside to Mauer's capturing this award is that it will do nothing but strengthen his case at the negotiating table. And that is where our attention must now turn, because the Twins No. 1 priority at this point should be making sure they get their MVP locked up long-term.
It had been widely assumed that Mauer would capture this honor ever since he batted .354 in September/October to put the finishing touches on a dazzling season and help launch his team to an improbable postseason berth, but yesterday it became official. Mauer becomes the fifth Twins player to win an MVP award, and the second in the past four years.
By now you're probably familiar with the numbers, but let's break them down again quickly. Mauer hit .365/.444/.587, leading the league in all three categories to capture the so-called "Sabermetric Triple Crown." He overcame a historical lack of power by bashing 28 home runs -- more than double his previous career high -- and drove in 96 runs while scoring 94 times. He walked more than he struck out (76/63). He hit .377 against right-handed pitchers and .345 against lefties. He posted a 1.067 OPS with runners in scoring position. It was a remarkable offensive season from just about any angle, and he did it all while putting in over 900 innings at the most demanding defensive position on the field. And while one can use the missed time early in the season as a mark against him, it's worth noting that Mauer was essentially an iron man after coming off the DL, resting less frequently than he ever has in the past and even catching both games of a crucial double-header late in the year. Even though he missed the entire month of April, Mauer played in 138 games and made 606 plate appearances; over the four seasons prior, he had averaged 131 games and 566 plate appearances.
Anyone with a working brain would have recognized Mauer as the AL's best player this year regardless of how the MVP voting results played out, but nevertheless it was quite encouraging to see Mauer place first on 27 of the 28 ballots while Mark Teixeira and his league-leading RBI total did not get one first-place vote. The ability of the BBWAA voters in this instance to look past traditional stats that tell you less about the performance of an individual player and more about the performances of his teammates, as they did with the Cy Young voting, represents refreshing progress.
Of course, the one downside to Mauer's capturing this award is that it will do nothing but strengthen his case at the negotiating table. And that is where our attention must now turn, because the Twins No. 1 priority at this point should be making sure they get their MVP locked up long-term.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Mauer For MVP: An Open and Shut Case
Note: A slightly condensed version of this article appears in the Dugout Splinters section of the Twins Official Scorecard being sold outside the Metrodome during the Twins' current series against the White Sox. Please support GameDay by picking up a copy or two if you make it to tonight's or tomorrow's game.
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By now, you’ve probably heard many of the arguments propping up Joe Mauer’s MVP worthiness. He leads the AL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He is one of only five players in baseball history to enter the middle of August with a .380 average and 25 home runs. (The other four: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio.) He is a reigning Gold Glove recipient at perhaps the most important defensive position on the diamond – one where the average player has produced a meager .253/.320/.397 hitting line this season. Even without diving into the more advanced, complex statistics available to us (which further cement his case), it seems clear that Mauer is on his way to completing one of the greatest seasons for a catcher in baseball history, and has quite easily been the league’s best player despite missing the first month of the season.
If the remarkable nature of Mauer’s performance doesn’t sway you, then the unremarkable performances of his competitors should. The most oft-cited rival of Mauer in the MVP race is Mark Teixeira, the slugging first baseman of the New York Yankees whose production is in many ways tough to discern from a number of other players that fall into that mold, such as Kevin Youkilis and Justin Morneau. Tex is currently hitting .283 with 32 home runs and 101 RBI. His numbers don’t stand out above Mauer’s, particularly accounting for positional context, and the arguments in Teixeira’s favor are thin. Leadership? Isn’t Derek Jeter the Yankees’ captain? Clutch-ness? Mauer has been a markedly better hitter with runners in scoring position and has done some of his best work during the month of August while the Twins have been trying to claw back into the AL Central race. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb by stating that Mauer is not the reason the Twins have been losing ballgames.
Virtually every argument in Teixeira’s favor is based on the rest of his team’s performance, which seems awfully misguided when discussing the game’s greatest individual honor. People often emphasize that the award is called Most Valuable Player and not Most Outstanding Player; I’d retort by asking: why is there a difference? A player provides value to his team by producing offensively, excelling defensively and setting an example for his teammates. In all those areas, Mauer has been the league’s best. MVP, MOP, whatever you want to call it… Barring drastic changes in September, it’s Joe Mauer.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Why We Should Care
Last week, Dave Cameron wrote an article over at FanGraphs entitled "Why Do We Care?" that pondered why we as fans should bother getting worked up over MVP results that are decided by a group largely comprised of traditional baseball thinkers holding values with which many of us fundamentally disagree. The column echoes sentiments I've frequently seen expressed by Aaron Gleeman and other baseball writers whom I respect. Cameron's piece was well written, thoughtful and highly logical. Yet, I still disagree with the very basis of his argument.
Like it or not, these awards play a huge part in how players are remembered, and in many cases they can be the deciding factor in borderline Hall of Fame cases. Would Jim Rice have been elected to the Hall had he not won the MVP in 1978? I kind of doubt it. And there is close to zero doubt in my mind that Bert Blyleven would have been enshrined long ago if had a couple Cy Youngs on his shelf.
The next logical step in Cameron's argument is to downplay the importance of the Hall of Fame -- after all, it's voted on by the same group of baseball writers and is thus subject to the same narrow-minded viewpoint on player analysis. Yet, when we stop caring about essentially all of the game's history and legacy, at what point do we just stop caring about the game itself?
It's true that the ultimate result of this year's MVP race has "no real world impact on me" (to quote Cameron), but really, nothing that happens in baseball does. If the Twins win the World Series, it's not going to directly benefit me in any meaningful way, but I'll be ecstatic. I watch the games because I love the Twins and it pleases me when their players succeed and are recognized for their accomplishments. If Mark Teixeira wins the MVP award over Joe Mauer, I'll be incredibly frustrated, because there's a pretty good chance that this error will shape the way these two players are perceived down the line. The MVP is the most revered and prominent award in baseball, which is a point that I think is completely missed in the column. Even if Dave Cameron is smart enough to look back years from now and realize that the logic behind the vote was incredibly flawed and that Mauer was clearly a far better player, that doesn't mean the vast majority of the baseball fan base at large will view it the same way. And if he doesn't care what anybody else thinks, then why does he take the time to write daily opinion columns for public consumption?
The MVP voting is plagued by the same annoying issues annually, and Cameron is correct in stating that we seem to have these same arguments every September. But I don't necessarily agree that the debate is without purpose. There has been some shift in the overall mentality of MVP voters over the past decade or so, which has been reflected somewhat over the past couple years in the election of Dustin Pedroia and Jimmy Rollins -- both middle infielders not known for their home run power or RBI proclivity. I think the mentality continues to shift, and I do believe that if he finishes well Mauer will ultimately win the MVP award this year, something which may not have been possible 10 years ago.
Cameron may believe that debating MVP candidates is like running in circles, but with prominent voices like Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer intelligently carrying on the battle, I think progress is being made. That won't continue to happen if people like Cameron and Gleeman simple stop caring and give up, though. Keep fighting the good fight, boys. Baseball history will thank you for it down the road.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Twins Near the Top
Yesterday, Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia was named American League MVP, as I and many others expected. Of note for Twins fans is that both Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer finished in the top five, with Morneau coming in second behind Pedroia and Mauer finishing fourth behind Kevin Youkilis.
The results of the voting are not terribly surprising. I'm fine with Pedroia winning the award, and it's encouraging to see that Mauer finished in the top five (I'd feared he wouldn't) and that Francisco Rodriguez did not (he came in sixth). Not to slight K-Rod, but for a closer with unexceptional numbers like him to even sniff the Most Valuable Player award would be a pretty major travesty. Naturally, a single voter saw fit to give him a first-place vote.
Star Tribune beat writer La Velle E. Neal III revealed a few of his selections, noting that he ranked Pedroia first, Morneau second, and Mauer fifth. With all due respect, I found it a bit stunning that Neal -- an intelligent baseball mind who seems to be up on the cutting-edge statistical analysis, reads a number of blogs and seems to respect guys who think like Aaron Gleeman -- would rank Mauer fifth, behind Morneau and Kevin Youkilis. (He didn't mention who he ranked fourth on his ballot, but I sincerely hope it wasn't Rodriguez; that would be especially absurd in his case considering his vocal opposition to starting pitchers receiving MVP consideration.) As a Twins fan, I loved watching Morneau all season and appreciated what he was able to do for the Minnesota offense, but looking back, .300/.374/.499 with 23 home runs is just not a very impressive line for a first baseman. Granted, Morneau was terrific with runners in scoring position (.348/.443/.602), Mauer was no slouch (.362/.465/.449). Not to mention Mauer played Gold Glove caliber defense at perhaps the most important defensive position on the field and led the league in hitting, making him the only AL catcher to accomplish that feat other than... Joe Mauer. I just don't see any legitimate argument for ranking Morneau higher than Mauer.
In any case, while I'm a little disappointed in the way Neal voted, I'm not at all disgusted by it. To each his own. And overall I'm just happy to see two Twins finish in the top four, even though I firmly believe their spots should have been switched. What does disgust me, though, is the way some of the other voters cast their ballots. There was, of course, the individual who gave a first-place vote to Rodriguez, who was not only a closer, but perhaps the third or fourth most effective closer in the league. Then there was the individual who gave a fifth-place vote to Jason Bartlett, who posted a stellar 690 OPS. One writer left Pedroia off the ballot completely. Completely!!!
This kind of stuff drives me nuts. I know there are some people out there who say they just stopped caring about how these baseball writers vote on awards like MVP and Cy Young due to the countless examples of sheer idiocy . I know that's a viewpoint that my pal Gleeman has been pushing. But to me, you almost have care about these awards as a baseball fan? What's next, you don't care about the Hall of Fame? Because, like it or not, whether or not a guy gets into the Hall is largely based on how many MVP or Cy Young awards he accumulated during his career. So next you basically have to stop caring about who gets into the Hall of Fame, but man... at that point you're really just ignoring a huge part of the game's heritage and tradition.
Funny, the winners of all six major awards (ROTY, Cy, MVP for each league) have been announced, and I really don't have any problem with a single one of them, but here I am still complaining. I guess that's just the nature of the beast.
On a final note, please make sure to swing by Twins Territory today for the first edition of a series of Offseason Twins Roundtable discussions between Seth Stohs, Alex Halsted and myself (Jesse Lund will hopefully be joining the fray next time around). It's all the nerdy Twins blather you can possibly endure!
In any case, while I'm a little disappointed in the way Neal voted, I'm not at all disgusted by it. To each his own. And overall I'm just happy to see two Twins finish in the top four, even though I firmly believe their spots should have been switched. What does disgust me, though, is the way some of the other voters cast their ballots. There was, of course, the individual who gave a first-place vote to Rodriguez, who was not only a closer, but perhaps the third or fourth most effective closer in the league. Then there was the individual who gave a fifth-place vote to Jason Bartlett, who posted a stellar 690 OPS. One writer left Pedroia off the ballot completely. Completely!!!
This kind of stuff drives me nuts. I know there are some people out there who say they just stopped caring about how these baseball writers vote on awards like MVP and Cy Young due to the countless examples of sheer idiocy . I know that's a viewpoint that my pal Gleeman has been pushing. But to me, you almost have care about these awards as a baseball fan? What's next, you don't care about the Hall of Fame? Because, like it or not, whether or not a guy gets into the Hall is largely based on how many MVP or Cy Young awards he accumulated during his career. So next you basically have to stop caring about who gets into the Hall of Fame, but man... at that point you're really just ignoring a huge part of the game's heritage and tradition.
Funny, the winners of all six major awards (ROTY, Cy, MVP for each league) have been announced, and I really don't have any problem with a single one of them, but here I am still complaining. I guess that's just the nature of the beast.
On a final note, please make sure to swing by Twins Territory today for the first edition of a series of Offseason Twins Roundtable discussions between Seth Stohs, Alex Halsted and myself (Jesse Lund will hopefully be joining the fray next time around). It's all the nerdy Twins blather you can possibly endure!
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Mosvick's MVPs
About a week, my colleague gave his perspective on the MVP race, largely choosing arguable choices. However, since I don't get much of a chance to post during the school year and exhausting job search, I wanted to take the weekend time to post. Plus, the Rays just lost and allowed a Game 7 against Boston to happen. Before most of (hopefully) collectively beg for Boston to lose, let me give you my version of the run-down and some of my reasons for occasionally agreeing with the other Nick.
AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins C
Its really hard for me to make the decision and be able to demand there wasn't any homerism. But, really, how much can that take away from a pretty clear-cut argument? Mr. Nelson mentioned that there are other contenders like the Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, as well as Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Justin Morneau. But what this list also emphasizes is that there wasn't a particularly strong MVP field in 2008.
This goes to two more reasons, in addition to the arguments about offensive and defensive greatness at a crucial position given by the other Nick. For one, when there isn't a strong field and there is a player having a historically great season, the vote should lean his way. In case anyone forgot, Joe Mauer is the only AL catcher to ever win a batting title (Ernie Lombardi won a batting title in the NL in 1938, hitting .342) and he has now done that twice at the age of 25. Unbelievable. Of course, this is my argument and is clearly not agreed upon by the voters. There are obviously examples like no MVP for McGwire in the 70 homer season, but only Jose Canseco won a MVP in a 40/40 campaign and there have been only four of those. The second reason is that Mauer's ability to get on base and score runs (98 of them) was a big reason for Morneau's 129 RBI that make him a contender. (For argument's sake, Mauer was even better than Morneau with runners on, but didn't have quite the amount of RBI opportunities)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 1B
There are a great many reasons to pick Pujols over many much weaker "contenders." I frankly find the argument for Ryan Howard laughable, since Chase Utley (62.2 VORP) and Jimmy Rollins (43.5 VORP) were more valuable hitters (Howard had a 35.3 VORP to go with his unsightly .251 average) and not only play more valuable defensive positions, but are actually good defensive players. Howard is a sub-par defender and Pujols is the best in the league at his position. As for VORP? Pujols is #1 in both leagues with a 96.8, way ahead of Hanley Ramirez at 80.7.
Now I am not arguing that VORP is the greatest or most useful stat, since Mauer did not lead the AL in VORP (A-Rod did) and I am still picking him. However, it still is a great tool for evaluating offensive value and, as I noted, my argument for Mauer goes beyond that. If you don't like that stat, Pujols also lead both leagues with 142 runs created and 342 total bases. He produced a total of 81 extra-base hits and arguably his best hitting line at .357/.462/.653, good for a 190 OPS plus. Pujols is simply the best hitter in the league, a very good defender, and without him, the Cardinals wouldn't have smelled the playoffs in my opinion.
AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
Its hard to pick against Cliff Lee. I hate the wins stat, because I think that the pitcher does not have much control over wins and thus it is not that useful of a statistic in analyzing who is the best pitcher. (That is, if that is how you think of Cy Young - league voting rules would agree with me)Lee also lead the league in ERA, which is more valuable than wins but still not entirely in the pitcher's control. I think Halladay cuts the lead by not only coming very close to Lee with 20 wins and a 2.78 ERA (compared to 22 and a 2.54 ERA), but also leading the league in WHIP (1.05, with Lee at 1.11), coming in third in strikeouts (206, to Lee's 170), leading the league in innings pitched at 246 (to Lee's 223 1/3), was harder to hit (.237 OBA, to Lee's .253), and had a better K/BB ratio (5.28, to Lee's 5.00).
Most of these are very close, but I feel like a few things give Halladay the edge, mostly given his lead in innings, strikeouts and opponent batting average, showing more dominance and value to his team. His Blue Jays also were in the playoff hunt, which I don't like to give a lot of credence to, but does help in a close race.
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
I thought this race was actually easy, but apparently my colleague disagrees given his vote for Brad Lidge. Granted, I said historically great seasons should get an edge in these votes if the field is not great. However, there is a difference between a catcher winning two batting titles at the age of 25 and a closer having a flawless season in terms of not blowing a save. While impressive, I just don't think they are the same ballpark. I've written on here before that saves are not only a flawed statistic, but not even a particularly good one for accessing relievers in many ways. Given that, a reliever also needs to have a incredible season for me to find them Cy Young worthy (I would have given Jason Schmidt the 2003 Cy Young over Eric Gagne, for instance) and I'm not sure Lidge had that.
On the other hand, Lincecum was far and away the best pitcher in the NL this year. He lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin with 265 (three were tied in second with 206), was second in the league with a 2.62 ERA and a 72.5 VORP (behind our old friend Johan Santana, with 73.4), was second in the league with 18 wins (on a horrible Giants team and while Brandon Webb had 22, I have gone through the limitations of wins before and Webb isn't a contender outside of his win total), first in league in hits allowed (7.22/9), first in strikeout ratio (10.51/9), and first in adjusted ERA at 164.
There were some other fine contenders and one of those I should point out is Santana. Santana had only 16 wins, but suffered through seven blow saves and countless other head-pounding games with the Mets. Outside of that, he still lead the league in ERA, had 206 Ks, and had his usual second-half run of brilliance. He isn't Cy Young, but he deserves some praise.
Rookies of the Year: Evan Longeria, Tampa Bay Rays and Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
I won't spend much time on these because neither are too hard of choices. Each pick was clearly the best rookie in their respective league. Both played particularly good defense for important positions (though catcher is more valuable than third-base) and each had standout statistics at the plate, with Longeria tallying 27 home runs and 85 RBI after starting the year in Triple-A and Soto having 23 home runs and 86 RBI. Honorable mentions go to Mike Aviles of the Royals and Joey Votto of the Reds.
AL MVP: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins C
Its really hard for me to make the decision and be able to demand there wasn't any homerism. But, really, how much can that take away from a pretty clear-cut argument? Mr. Nelson mentioned that there are other contenders like the Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, as well as Grady Sizemore, Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Justin Morneau. But what this list also emphasizes is that there wasn't a particularly strong MVP field in 2008.
This goes to two more reasons, in addition to the arguments about offensive and defensive greatness at a crucial position given by the other Nick. For one, when there isn't a strong field and there is a player having a historically great season, the vote should lean his way. In case anyone forgot, Joe Mauer is the only AL catcher to ever win a batting title (Ernie Lombardi won a batting title in the NL in 1938, hitting .342) and he has now done that twice at the age of 25. Unbelievable. Of course, this is my argument and is clearly not agreed upon by the voters. There are obviously examples like no MVP for McGwire in the 70 homer season, but only Jose Canseco won a MVP in a 40/40 campaign and there have been only four of those. The second reason is that Mauer's ability to get on base and score runs (98 of them) was a big reason for Morneau's 129 RBI that make him a contender. (For argument's sake, Mauer was even better than Morneau with runners on, but didn't have quite the amount of RBI opportunities)
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals 1B
There are a great many reasons to pick Pujols over many much weaker "contenders." I frankly find the argument for Ryan Howard laughable, since Chase Utley (62.2 VORP) and Jimmy Rollins (43.5 VORP) were more valuable hitters (Howard had a 35.3 VORP to go with his unsightly .251 average) and not only play more valuable defensive positions, but are actually good defensive players. Howard is a sub-par defender and Pujols is the best in the league at his position. As for VORP? Pujols is #1 in both leagues with a 96.8, way ahead of Hanley Ramirez at 80.7.
Now I am not arguing that VORP is the greatest or most useful stat, since Mauer did not lead the AL in VORP (A-Rod did) and I am still picking him. However, it still is a great tool for evaluating offensive value and, as I noted, my argument for Mauer goes beyond that. If you don't like that stat, Pujols also lead both leagues with 142 runs created and 342 total bases. He produced a total of 81 extra-base hits and arguably his best hitting line at .357/.462/.653, good for a 190 OPS plus. Pujols is simply the best hitter in the league, a very good defender, and without him, the Cardinals wouldn't have smelled the playoffs in my opinion.
AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
Its hard to pick against Cliff Lee. I hate the wins stat, because I think that the pitcher does not have much control over wins and thus it is not that useful of a statistic in analyzing who is the best pitcher. (That is, if that is how you think of Cy Young - league voting rules would agree with me)Lee also lead the league in ERA, which is more valuable than wins but still not entirely in the pitcher's control. I think Halladay cuts the lead by not only coming very close to Lee with 20 wins and a 2.78 ERA (compared to 22 and a 2.54 ERA), but also leading the league in WHIP (1.05, with Lee at 1.11), coming in third in strikeouts (206, to Lee's 170), leading the league in innings pitched at 246 (to Lee's 223 1/3), was harder to hit (.237 OBA, to Lee's .253), and had a better K/BB ratio (5.28, to Lee's 5.00).
Most of these are very close, but I feel like a few things give Halladay the edge, mostly given his lead in innings, strikeouts and opponent batting average, showing more dominance and value to his team. His Blue Jays also were in the playoff hunt, which I don't like to give a lot of credence to, but does help in a close race.
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
I thought this race was actually easy, but apparently my colleague disagrees given his vote for Brad Lidge. Granted, I said historically great seasons should get an edge in these votes if the field is not great. However, there is a difference between a catcher winning two batting titles at the age of 25 and a closer having a flawless season in terms of not blowing a save. While impressive, I just don't think they are the same ballpark. I've written on here before that saves are not only a flawed statistic, but not even a particularly good one for accessing relievers in many ways. Given that, a reliever also needs to have a incredible season for me to find them Cy Young worthy (I would have given Jason Schmidt the 2003 Cy Young over Eric Gagne, for instance) and I'm not sure Lidge had that.
On the other hand, Lincecum was far and away the best pitcher in the NL this year. He lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin with 265 (three were tied in second with 206), was second in the league with a 2.62 ERA and a 72.5 VORP (behind our old friend Johan Santana, with 73.4), was second in the league with 18 wins (on a horrible Giants team and while Brandon Webb had 22, I have gone through the limitations of wins before and Webb isn't a contender outside of his win total), first in league in hits allowed (7.22/9), first in strikeout ratio (10.51/9), and first in adjusted ERA at 164.
There were some other fine contenders and one of those I should point out is Santana. Santana had only 16 wins, but suffered through seven blow saves and countless other head-pounding games with the Mets. Outside of that, he still lead the league in ERA, had 206 Ks, and had his usual second-half run of brilliance. He isn't Cy Young, but he deserves some praise.
Rookies of the Year: Evan Longeria, Tampa Bay Rays and Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
I won't spend much time on these because neither are too hard of choices. Each pick was clearly the best rookie in their respective league. Both played particularly good defense for important positions (though catcher is more valuable than third-base) and each had standout statistics at the plate, with Longeria tallying 27 home runs and 85 RBI after starting the year in Triple-A and Soto having 23 home runs and 86 RBI. Honorable mentions go to Mike Aviles of the Royals and Joey Votto of the Reds.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Another MVP Hit
Justin Morneau is now one of five. That is, one of five players since 2000 to have three walk-off home runs in a season. That's a list that also includes Barry Bonds, Jim Thome, and Alex Rodriguez. Pretty prestigious company, even if Alex Gonzalez is the final name on the list. Every month this year, Morneau has come up with a clutch bomb to win a game, the first coming against Tampa Bay in April and the second being a more memorable three-run walk-off shot against the Chicago White Sox.
For all the talk of "clutch" players like Derek Jeter, Morneau's name doesn't seem to come up quite enough. Even though he's hitting around .200 in "close and late" situations, Morneau still has had three memorable blasts that have seemingly come just when the team needed them. And there was no better time than yesterday, when Morneau stepped into the box in the ninth inning in a game that many Twins fans (and perhaps players) probably felt ready to give up on.
Why? The Twins managed to put together a 9-2 lead, getting even Lew Ford and Jason Tyner (better known as "Spare Parts") into the action. The Twins subsequently let that lead slip rapidly, as Juan Rincon gave up three eighth inning runs and Joe Nathan gave up two ninth inning runs, including a ridiculous Prince Fielder inside-the-park home run that should have been ruled a single with a three-base error by Lew Ford, who lost the fly ball in the ceiling.
If Morneau was the MVP of the game, Ford was possibly the LVP. Ford's bat did do something in the game at least, as he had a two-run double in the Twins' big fifth inning and a total of four on the night. However, his defense in center, where he replaced Torii Hunter (who left the game with a bruised hand) was unsightly. He not only made a major error on the Fielder play, but he helped give the Brewers a tie with a terrible throw to the plate on Craig Counsell's sacrifice fly in the ninth. Even if Hunter's defense has slipped, his arm is still plenty powerful and accurate and there's no way he makes the same mistake Ford does in that situation.
Of course, it's hard to heap all the blame of Ford's mistakes when the bullpen still wasn't too good. Nathan didn't deserve the earned run for Fielder's so-called home run, but he did allow three singles outside of that to load the bases. In fact, despite his 2.45 ERA, it's June and Nathan has allowed 32 hits in 29 1/3 innings for a .281 OBA and with the nine walks he has allowed, a 1.40 WHIP. To be fair, Nathan did strike out two batters, but it is worrisome that his unusual numbers have continued into June. As for Rincon, the bad outing only adds to the notion that he hasn't been the same since 2005.
In fact, the only good pitcher last night was Matt Guerrier, who threw 1 2/3 no-hit innings with three strikeouts. Twins starter Kevin Slowey had a usual outing for himself, giving up eight hits (not a huge surprise given that he's around the plate) to go with four walks and three home runs. It's good news that Slowey struck out four in 5 1/3 innings, but the walks and home runs are at least somewhat troubling.
What does this all lead up to? Despite a laundry list of mistakes, the Twins managed to get a win and avoid a sweep at home thanks to the bat of their MVP. It almost seemed like Morneau was ready to go up to the plate and carry his team to victory, even after such a disheartening comeback by the opposing team.
For all the talk of "clutch" players like Derek Jeter, Morneau's name doesn't seem to come up quite enough. Even though he's hitting around .200 in "close and late" situations, Morneau still has had three memorable blasts that have seemingly come just when the team needed them. And there was no better time than yesterday, when Morneau stepped into the box in the ninth inning in a game that many Twins fans (and perhaps players) probably felt ready to give up on.
Why? The Twins managed to put together a 9-2 lead, getting even Lew Ford and Jason Tyner (better known as "Spare Parts") into the action. The Twins subsequently let that lead slip rapidly, as Juan Rincon gave up three eighth inning runs and Joe Nathan gave up two ninth inning runs, including a ridiculous Prince Fielder inside-the-park home run that should have been ruled a single with a three-base error by Lew Ford, who lost the fly ball in the ceiling.
If Morneau was the MVP of the game, Ford was possibly the LVP. Ford's bat did do something in the game at least, as he had a two-run double in the Twins' big fifth inning and a total of four on the night. However, his defense in center, where he replaced Torii Hunter (who left the game with a bruised hand) was unsightly. He not only made a major error on the Fielder play, but he helped give the Brewers a tie with a terrible throw to the plate on Craig Counsell's sacrifice fly in the ninth. Even if Hunter's defense has slipped, his arm is still plenty powerful and accurate and there's no way he makes the same mistake Ford does in that situation.
Of course, it's hard to heap all the blame of Ford's mistakes when the bullpen still wasn't too good. Nathan didn't deserve the earned run for Fielder's so-called home run, but he did allow three singles outside of that to load the bases. In fact, despite his 2.45 ERA, it's June and Nathan has allowed 32 hits in 29 1/3 innings for a .281 OBA and with the nine walks he has allowed, a 1.40 WHIP. To be fair, Nathan did strike out two batters, but it is worrisome that his unusual numbers have continued into June. As for Rincon, the bad outing only adds to the notion that he hasn't been the same since 2005.
In fact, the only good pitcher last night was Matt Guerrier, who threw 1 2/3 no-hit innings with three strikeouts. Twins starter Kevin Slowey had a usual outing for himself, giving up eight hits (not a huge surprise given that he's around the plate) to go with four walks and three home runs. It's good news that Slowey struck out four in 5 1/3 innings, but the walks and home runs are at least somewhat troubling.
What does this all lead up to? Despite a laundry list of mistakes, the Twins managed to get a win and avoid a sweep at home thanks to the bat of their MVP. It almost seemed like Morneau was ready to go up to the plate and carry his team to victory, even after such a disheartening comeback by the opposing team.
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