Power: Past, Present and Future

On Monday night, Jim Thome became the eighth player in baseball history to reach 600 home runs. It was a long time coming for the future Hall of Fame slugger, who debuted in the majors and hit his first career home run back in 1991.

Since then, Thome has averaged 29 homers per year, topping out with 52 in 2002. During that same span, the Twins have had only three players hit more than 29 bombs in a session (Justin Morneau three times, Michael Cuddyer and Torii Hunter once apiece). In only five of the past 20 years have the Twins' top two home runs hitters combined to go deep 52 times.

It's oddly fitting that Thome would reach this rare and awe-inspiring milestone while playing for an organization that has been so starved for home runs over his entire career.

We've long admired his majestic bombs from afar, while he was hitting 445 of them with the division-rival Indians and White Sox. And over the past two years, we've had the pleasure of observing one of baseball's great all-time power hitters from up close. To say Thome has stood out from the pack during his time in Minnesota, despite aging into his 40s, would be an understatement.

Fans have grown tired of hearing Twins' hitters pile up excuses for their lack of long-ball success in the home yard, but Thome has experienced no such issues. Twenty-one of his 36 dingers over the past two years have come at Target Field, and he completely owns the park's leader board; five of the six longest home runs hit by a Twin in the young stadium belong to Thome, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker.

That Thome has been so successful at an age where even the great all-time power hitters have generally fizzled out is incredible, but one has to wonder how much is left in the tank, especially in light of all the back problems.

Whether or not Thome chooses to continue his career after this season, he'll turn 41 in 10 days and it seems safe to say that he's at least nearing the end of his lengthy reign as one of the game's foremost slugging machines.

When he's gone, it isn't clear who will carry the torch as Minnesota's top bopper. I wrote last week about the organization's gloomy power outlook, with no legitimate home run threats in the high minors and with the future statuses of players like Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer in doubt (either due to health or expiring contracts). Trevor Plouffe leads the organization in homers this year, and it's not clear whether Ron Gardenhire will ever find a defensive position where he's comfortable playing him regularly.

It would seem that the Twins' next true beacon of hope might be Miguel Sano, who is currently 18 and playing rookie ball in Elizabethton. Signed out of the Dominican Republic with a hefty bonus after the 2009 season, Sano is already starting to fulfill his immense power-hitting potential, as he's launched 13 home runs in 51 games this year in the Appalachian League. More than half of Sano's hits have gone for extra bases, aiding a .589 slugging percentage.

Sano has had his issues with plate discipline, but to be pounding the ball like this -- at an age where power is typically an undeveloped tool -- is exciting. When Thome was playing rookie ball at 18 (all the way back in 1989), he hit zero home runs with a .296 slugging percentage in 55 games.

Sano has the type of raw power and potential that makes some analysts believe he could one day sit beside Thome on Target Field's all-time distance leader board. But he is of course only 18 years old (allegedly), and we'll have to wait a long time before that could become a reality.

For now, we'll have to simply appreciate the exceedingly rare specimen that Thome is, especially if this is his swan song.

Jim Thome, the long-time Twin killer, retiring as a Twin after reaching an historical milestone the very same year that Harmon Killeberew -- a legend in his own image -- passed on.

Oddly fitting.

Can History Repeat?

On June 1st, the Tigers completed a sweep of the Twins at Comerica Park. After that loss, Minnesota sat 16.5 games out of first place with a miserable 17-37 record.

Since then, they have gone 24-11 and gained 10 games on Detroit in the standings. While a 6.5-game deficit at the All-Star break is daunting, it's not insurmountable. Ron Gardenhire has been there before.

In 2003, the Twins lost 12 of 13 games heading into the break and sat 7.5 out when the Midsummer Classic rolled around. Coincidentally, it was at that very point that their season turned around completely.

Over that All-Star break, Terry Ryan traded for Shannon Stewart, who assumed lead-off duties for a team that suddenly became the hottest in baseball. The Twins went 45-23 the rest of the way, finishing with 90 wins and taking the division handily.

If this year's Twins could match the .660 post-break winning percentage achieved by that '03 club, they would finish with 89 wins, which could very well be enough to come out on top.

The second-half surge in '03 was made possible by strong starting pitching, a capable lineup and a crummy division. All those factors would seem to be in place at present. The missing ingredient, though, is an external jolt.

While it makes for a tidy storyline to claim that Stewart came aboard and single-handedly carried the club to the playoffs, it wasn't that simple. Many other players contributed heavily in the comeback, including some kid named Santana who (finally) got a shot in the rotation. But Stewart did address a significant weakness on the roster, and his arrival did send a signal to fans and players alike that the front office was in it to win it despite the sizable deficit.

I don't think we'll see any players brought in via trade during this year's All-Star break, but the Twins must be considered buyers at this point and already are making moves to strengthen their roster by adding Trevor Plouffe and Delmon Young. These moves will be the subject of the next post here.

Three-Bagger: Posey, Home Cooking & Killer

* San Francisco's Buster Posey was crushed in a home plate collision on Wednesday night, and yesterday it was revealed that the catcher sustained a broken bone and sprained ligaments in his leg. It's a very sad situation for the 24-year-old star, who will miss the rest of the season and face a difficult rehab.

This is the second time in the past year we've seen a top young catcher suffer a catastrophic leg injury in a collision (last year Carlos Santana of the Indians, himself 24, busted his knee up on a similar play). It's also another tally against the logic of keeping Joe Mauer at catcher. On top of the exerting routine for his already battered legs, Mauer is at increased risk for this type of mishap as long as he's behind the plate.

While he's been able to avoid any major incidents up to this point in his career, Mauer has hung in there and taken his hits. Disastrous situations like the ones experienced by Santana and Posey have to weigh on the minds of Twins brass as they contemplate their $184 million investment.

* After falling to the Mariners 3-0 on Wednesday afternoon, the Twins dropped to 5-13 at Target Field this season. They've been outscored by 49 runs in 18 home games. Many have pointed to the team's home-heavy remaining schedule as a beacon of light, but the team has actually played worse in front of their own fans than on the road.

This is a shocking development for a franchise that has historically excelled at home . The Twins were notorious for their unique advantage in the Metrodome years and they carried that right over to Target Field last year, posting the league's best home record at 53-28.

You have to go back to the year 2000 to find the last time the Twins were under .500 at home. That team failed to win 70 games.

* The Twins haven't hit many home runs at Target Field this year, but last night's tribute to Harmon Killebrew certainly qualifies as one. Kudos to the organization for a classy memorial commemorating the man who embodies Twins history. Killebrew retired 10 years before I was born and I never had the chance to meet him, but his reputation speaks for itself. I can honestly say I don't think I've ever heard a negative thing about him from anyone who encountered him. That's pretty rare.

Killebrew is a big reason why, even in these darkest of times, I am proud to call myself a Twins fan. May he rest in peace.

Joe Nathan and History

Joe Nathan is saying all the right things as he attempts to come back from Tommy John surgery.

Upon learning last spring that he'd be spending the next year rehabbing from one of baseball's most serious medical procedures, Nathan pledged to return at full strength in 2011. Every step of the way, he has remained positive, hopeful and determined in his demeanor. He's backed up his words, too. The right-hander hasn't reported any setbacks in his recovery, and was so confident while throwing a bullpen session at Target Field last Friday that he asked his manager to step into the batter's box for a few pitches.

During an interview with ESPN 1500 later in the weekend, Nathan reiterated that his goal is to be the team's closer this year. There's nothing surprising about that, and -- like Twins fans everywhere -- I'm pulling for him.

My interest was piqued by a comment Nathan made in the same interview, when discussing his future outlook: "Before (the surgery) I didn't know how many more years there were. But now that I've had this I feel like this is something that could let me go for another five, six, seven more years."

Now, that's obviously a very optimistic estimation for the 36-year-old reliever. Coming back from Tommy John surgery at this age is one thing, but coming back and pitching effectively for another five, six or seven years?

It's hard to imagine. But if there's one guy who could pull it off, it's Nathan. He's a fiery competitor with a tremendous work ethic, and he'd avoided injury almost completely over his first six years as Twins' closer.

So, for the sake of today's column, let's say Nathan manages to make good and close for another six years, pitching effectively through the age of 41 like fellow closer and recent retiree Trevor Hoffman was able to. Not only would this be an impressive personal feat and one of the great Tommy John success stories of all time, it would also place Nathan among the top statistical closers in baseball history, with a case for the Hall of Fame.

Let's say Nathan averaged 35 saves per season over the next six years. (In his first six years as Twins' closer, he averaged 41.) That would give him 457 career saves and place him fourth on the all-time list, behind only Hoffman, Mariano Rivera and Lee Smith.

It's difficult to guess how Hall of Fame voters will view closers in a decade, when Nathan would become eligible, but big save totals have certainly aided some cases (Hoffman and Rivera are widely considered locks and Smith has received as much as 45 percent of the vote despite being far less dominant than Nathan by other measures).

It's odd to think of Nathan as a Hall of Fame pitcher, because while he's clearly been one of the game's best closers, it doesn't seem like his service in the role has spanned enough time for him to be considered one of the all-time greats. And it hasn't. He's only closed for six years and he's 36, which is why his suggestion that he'd like to do it for another six or seven seems extreme.

The man likes to dream big and set his sights high. I respect that. But for now, he can aim for a more immediately attainable goal: the Twins' all-time save record, held by Rick Aguilera. Nathan is only nine short, and if all goes well he'll own it by the All-Star break.

Then, he can shift his gaze to 450 and the Hall of Fame. Knowing what we know about Nathan, I'd expect nothing less.

Contemplating Thome

In an uncharacteristically forthright and candid response to an interview question about Jim Thome on ESPN 1500 earlier this week, Twins general manager Bill Smith made no secret of his desire to bring back the 40-year-old free agent next season, telling Phil Mackey and Patrick Reusse that "it's safe to say we're going to pursue him."

This comes as no surprise to me, as re-signing Thome was among my offseason predictions for the Twins a couple weeks ago. It doesn't disappoint me, either, since I listed the move as one I'd make in my offseason blueprint. Thome was a crucial contributor for the Twins in the 2010 season, delivering a marvelous offensive performance and enabling the offense to sustain the loss of an MVP-caliber hitter without missing much of a beat.

But the decision to bring Thome back is not cut-and-dry. Even though I'd support such a move, there's plenty of risk involved with dedicating a roster spot (and a sizable chunk of salary) to an aging slugger incapable of playing the field.

Minnesota sports fans are all too familiar with how quickly age can take a toll on even the most elite athletic performers. Look no further than Brett Favre, who last year nearly led the Vikings to a Super Bowl by amazingly putting together one of the best seasons of his career at age 40. He came back for another shot this year and suddenly it seems as though the game has passed him by. His turnovers have perhaps already cost the team as many games as his heroic heaves won them last year, and this past Sunday as he was being carted out off the field with a busted chin he admitted to wondering, "What in the world am I doing?"

No one can doubt that the will and motivation are still there for Favre, but he's learning a tough lesson about the thresholds of the human body. What he did last year was unprecedented, and there's a reason for that. People generally can't keep playing at a high level in a league filled with the world's best athletes while on the wrong side of 40. At some point, Favre's body was just going to give out, and it seems we may be seeing that now, as much as the quarterback refuses to acknowledge it by admirably (or stupidly) continuing to take the field week after week.

The sports they play are obviously very different, but there are plenty of parallels between Favre and Thome. Both are inner-circle Hall of Famers. Both came to Minnesota looking to prove that they had something left in the tank after appearing finished at the conclusion of their previous seasons. Both put together amazing campaigns while turning 40 years old, but were left with a sense of unfinished business. It's what brought Favre back, and it's what very well could bring Thome back.

The Twins' signing of Thome is widely looked at as the best free agency acquisition of last any team last winter, as he came on for a measly $1.5 million base salary and managed to hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 home runs and 59 RBI in 109 games. That performance ensured that Thome will command a higher salary this year, although his age and his inability to play the field ought to keep his price tag relatively modest. For a Twins team with ballooning salaries across the board, the $3-4 million it might take to bring Thome back is significant. Are they willing to gamble that he can keep producing in a season where he'll turn 41 years old?

A glance at some of the players who surround Thome on baseball's all-time home run list reminds us how quickly physical ability can fade around this point in life.

Frank Robinson, whom Thome passed on the home run list late in the year to move up to eighth all-time, hit 22 homers with an .833 OPS at the age of 38 in 1974. The next year, at 39, he hit nine homers while being limited to 49 games by injury. A year later, he hit three home runs and posted a .687 OPS while playing in only 36 games at age 40, and then his career was finished.

Ken Griffey, fifth on the list, managed 19 homers last year but retired this year at the age of 40 with zero home runs and a .454 OPS in 108 plate appearances.

Willie Mays, No. 4 on the list, racked up 18 homers with a .907 OPS as a 40-year-old in 1971, but the next year he hit only eight homers while playing 69 games and in '73 he retired after hitting six homers and posting a .647 OPS in an injury-riddled campaign.

Babe Ruth bashed 22 homers while registering a .985 OPS as a 39-year-old in 1934. The next year he managed to play in only 28 games, hitting .181 with six home runs, and retired.

Hank Aaron hit 20 home runs with an .832 OPS as a 40-year-old in 1974, then hit 12 homers with a .687 OPS in '75 and retired after posting similar numbers the next year.

Looking at the top ten home run hitters of all time, the only player who had a productive season that started after he'd turned 40 is the guy at the top, Barry Bonds, and there's plenty of room to question whether he did so naturally.

This is a lot of examples to digest, obviously, but the point is that while Thome's tremendous performance this past season was unlikely, it's infinitely more unlikely that he'll be able to repeat it next year based on historical comparisons. Now, the Twins don't necessarily need him to repeat that performance -- they'd probably be satisfied with some quality pop off the bench assuming Justin Morneau returns -- but an awful lot of Thome's historical peers ceased to be productive players very suddenly right around this age. And much like with Favre's ankle late last season for the Vikings, the back problems Thome experienced late in the Twins' season (which may or may not have factored into his poor postseason performance) could certainly be a precursor to more debilitating issues next year.

Of course, the Twins won't need to pay Thome $18 million to lure him back and they won't be investing the fate of their season in him like the Vikings did with Favre. But considering their payroll situation and the fact that they're already committed to paying a plodding lefty slugger $5.25 million in Jason Kubel, the Thome decision is an important one.

It sounds like Smith already has his mind made up, and that's fine by me. I love Thome. But history paints a rather grim portrait of what we can expect from the him next year, and if Smith is going to bring the veteran slugger back he'd better be prepared for the worst.

Why We Should Care

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote an article over at FanGraphs entitled "Why Do We Care?" that pondered why we as fans should bother getting worked up over MVP results that are decided by a group largely comprised of traditional baseball thinkers holding values with which many of us fundamentally disagree. The column echoes sentiments I've frequently seen expressed by Aaron Gleeman and other baseball writers whom I respect. Cameron's piece was well written, thoughtful and highly logical. Yet, I still disagree with the very basis of his argument.

Like it or not, these awards play a huge part in how players are remembered, and in many cases they can be the deciding factor in borderline Hall of Fame cases. Would Jim Rice have been elected to the Hall had he not won the MVP in 1978? I kind of doubt it. And there is close to zero doubt in my mind that Bert Blyleven would have been enshrined long ago if had a couple Cy Youngs on his shelf.

The next logical step in Cameron's argument is to downplay the importance of the Hall of Fame -- after all, it's voted on by the same group of baseball writers and is thus subject to the same narrow-minded viewpoint on player analysis. Yet, when we stop caring about essentially all of the game's history and legacy, at what point do we just stop caring about the game itself?

It's true that the ultimate result of this year's MVP race has "no real world impact on me" (to quote Cameron), but really, nothing that happens in baseball does. If the Twins win the World Series, it's not going to directly benefit me in any meaningful way, but I'll be ecstatic. I watch the games because I love the Twins and it pleases me when their players succeed and are recognized for their accomplishments. If Mark Teixeira wins the MVP award over Joe Mauer, I'll be incredibly frustrated, because there's a pretty good chance that this error will shape the way these two players are perceived down the line. The MVP is the most revered and prominent award in baseball, which is a point that I think is completely missed in the column. Even if Dave Cameron is smart enough to look back years from now and realize that the logic behind the vote was incredibly flawed and that Mauer was clearly a far better player, that doesn't mean the vast majority of the baseball fan base at large will view it the same way. And if he doesn't care what anybody else thinks, then why does he take the time to write daily opinion columns for public consumption?

The MVP voting is plagued by the same annoying issues annually, and Cameron is correct in stating that we seem to have these same arguments every September. But I don't necessarily agree that the debate is without purpose. There has been some shift in the overall mentality of MVP voters over the past decade or so, which has been reflected somewhat over the past couple years in the election of Dustin Pedroia and Jimmy Rollins -- both middle infielders not known for their home run power or RBI proclivity. I think the mentality continues to shift, and I do believe that if he finishes well Mauer will ultimately win the MVP award this year, something which may not have been possible 10 years ago.

Cameron may believe that debating MVP candidates is like running in circles, but with prominent voices like Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer intelligently carrying on the battle, I think progress is being made. That won't continue to happen if people like Cameron and Gleeman simple stop caring and give up, though. Keep fighting the good fight, boys. Baseball history will thank you for it down the road.

Break Time's Over

Back in 2003, the Twins came out of the All-Star break with a 44-49 record and a 7.5 game deficit in the AL Central standings. Their first post-break series was a four-game set at home against the A's, and they opened it with a 6-2 Thursday night victory before going on to sweep Oakland and begin a marvelous second half that ended with a second consecutive Central Division crown.

Flash forward to 2007. These Twins find themselves with a better record than the 2003 version, but in a similar position -- needing victories to start making up ground in the standings. Last night, they opened their own four-game home set against the A's in similar fashion, picking up a 6-2 victory. Of course, almost all the faces have changed since '03. In that 6-2 victory four years ago, it was 38-year-old Rick Reed who picked up the win; last night it was 25-year-old Scott Baker. Four years ago, Shannon Stewart was batting lead-off for the Twins, whom he had just recently joined to help with the playoff push. Last night, Stewart was batting lead-off for the A's, whom he signed with in the offseason. After struggling through his last couple seasons with the Twins, Stewart is having a bit of a comeback year with the A's, and I'm happy for him.

The Twins drew four walks against Oakland starter Chad Gaudin in the first inning and scored twice in each of the first two frames, building a four-run lead that would be plenty for Baker, who controlled the Athletics over six innings to pick up his fourth win of the season. Amazingly, he got 14 outs through the air and just one on the ground.

Baker really seems to be pulling things together -- even with the ugly outing in Chicago last Friday in which he allowed seven runs over five innings, he holds a 3.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his last five starts. Baker could be a big key to the Twins' success in the second half.

Meanwhile, Michael Cuddyer was the star on offense, going 4-for-4 with a double and a triple. Joe Mauer went 0-for-2, but walked twice and came around to score both times. Torii Hunter drove in a pair of runs and Justin Morneau chipped in with a bloop RBI single. Morneau is now tied with Vladimir Guerrero for second in the American League in RBI at 75, while Hunter ranks fourth with 71. Back in that 2003 season, only one Twin finished the season with more than 75 RBI (it was Hunter, with 102).

Of course, I would be remiss not to mention the contributions of one Garrett Jones. In his first game back with the Twins after being recalled from Rochester, Jones went 2-for-4 with a double off the top of the baggy in right field. Jones is far from a solution at DH, but he's a better option than Jason Tyner. Neither one of the two really belongs in the major leagues, but Jones at least has the potential to hit the ball over the fence. And, being that he struck out in over a quarter of his at-bats in the minors, it's nice to see that he's fanned just once so far in 12 big-league at-bats.

Tonight, Johan Santana toes the rubber for the Twins against Lenny DiNardo, who has been solid for the A's this year. Here's hoping the Twins can continue to do their best impression of the '03 squad and work toward a big four-game sweep. In 2003, the Twins won two-thirds of their games after the All-Star break -- if they managed to do that this year, they would finish with a 94-68 record. Of course, this year's team doesn't have the luxury of a mid-season Shannon Stewart addition... but who needs him when you've got Garrett Jones?