Respawning the Piranhas

The White Sox are back in town.

Over the past handful of years, that's been music to the ears of baseball fans in Minnesota. Since 2008, the Twins are 21-6 at home against the Sox. Ozzie Guillen often lamented his team's hex at the Metrodome (where they hadn't posted a winning record since 2005), and Target Field has – up to this point – not proven much friendlier.

Baseball is a random game where few things can be relied upon, but success for the Twins when facing the South Siders on their own turf has been one of them.

Will that continue to be the case this year? Rain has delayed the latest chapter of this classic rivalry, which figures to get underway tonight. It seems an appropriate time to gauge each club.

At present, the Twins and White Sox both find themselves in unfamiliar and undesirable territory: the bottom.

Chicago has gradually recovered from its miserable 14-23 start, winning 19 of 31 to move within two games of .500.

The Twins, on the other hand, saw their early drought carry on longer and have experienced a more rapid correction, with nine wins in their past 11 games. They remain 13 games under .500, but will look to continue their march toward respectability this week against Chicago.

Prior to the season, most people expected the Tigers, White Sox and Twins to battle for the AL Central crown. With the latter two climbing steadily while the Indians free-fall (they've dropped 11 of their last 15), we may be seeing the cream rise to the top.

But Detroit isn't going away, so these are critical games for the teams set to compete at Target Field tonight and tomorrow. With Alexi Casilla and Ben Revere setting the tone for the offense (and Tsuyoshi Nishioka likely to be activated for tonight's game), the Twins will employ a speed-based, small-ball approach that prompted Ozzie Guillen to token the "piranhas" nickname several years ago.

If the Twins can effectively implement this game plan and win, as they have consistently over the past couple weeks, we can expect plenty of effuse praise for the scrappy bunch from Ron Gardenhire. And Guillen, of course.

Battle of the Bad

Over the past decade, the battle for AL Central supremacy has often come down to two teams: the Twins and the White Sox. Since 2001, the Twins have won the division six times, and that success has often come at the expense of the Pale Hosers, who finished second behind them in four of those seasons.

Of course, Chicago has also had its notable victories in this classic rivalry, edging the Twins in a tiebreaker for the division title in 2008 and reaching that ultimate achievement -- one that has eluded the hometown nine -- when they captured a World Series Championship in 2005.

This year, the Twins have been so outrageously bad over the first month of the season that some fans have failed to take notice of Chicago's own struggles. While the Twins (9-18) have scuffled in basically every aspect of the game, leading to a league-worst negative-64 run differential, the White Sox (11-19) have had their own share of issues and currently sport the second-worst run-differential in baseball -- albeit a much less appalling negative-32. (They're tied at that mark with -- you guessed it -- the Cubs. Tough times for the Windy City.)

Tonight, the two teams face off for the first time this season at U.S. Cellular Field. The pitching tilt will feature Francisco Liriano, who has been a major contributor to his club's woes with a 1-4 record and 9.13 ERA in five starts, and Edwin Jackson, who himself has regressed significantly after an impressive South Side debut last year.

Something's gotta give, right? There's no way two teams with as much talent as these can continue to play at such an abysmal and embarrassing level.

Which group is ready to step up?

Scouting the Enemy: Q&A with IIATMS

Jason Rosenberg and his stable of writers do a terrific job of covering the Yankees over the site It's About the Money, Stupid. The blog is a member of Rob Neyer's SweetSpot Network, and with good reason -- they offer the type of cogent, even-handed analysis that many might not typically associate with New York sports.

I strongly recommend checking out Jason's ALDS series preview, and after you're done with that you can scroll down and read my brief Q&A session with the IIATMS crew here. I asked Jason and his gang five questions that I felt might help illuminate some aspects of the opponent for Twins fans. Make sure you head over to the IIATMS blog later today to check out my answers to their own five questions.

NTB: Many people don't seem to realize what a disappointing season Derek Jeter had, by his standards at least. From your vantage point, are his reduced numbers simply the result of a down year or is he showing his age? Give us a synopsis on his season and rate your confidence in him heading into the ALDS.

IIATMS: Anyone who got within 100 yards of IIATMS knows about Jeter’s disappointing season. We KNOW that something is off with Jeter this year. When we look at his stats, the one that jumps out is a 65.7% ground ball rate, by far the highest in baseball for anyone with at least 300 ABs (there are only three other players with at least 300 ABs and a GB% over 60%). Jeter’s always had a high ground ball rate (career average of 57%), but 65.7% seems extreme, particularly coupled with a career-low line drive percentage of 16.1% and a career-high O-Swing percentage (percentage of balls swung at outside of the strike zone) of 28.2%. These stats confirm what we think we saw all year: Jeter did not make the same kind of ball contact as in prior years, nor did he have the same kind of plate discipline. Is age a factor? Of course age is a factor, he’s 36 years old. But this also may have been an off-year for Jeter, as suggested by his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). BABIP fluctuations are supposed to be mostly a matter of luck. Jeter’s 2010 BABIP is .307, which is better than normal for most players but 50 points below his career average. So, chalk up Jeter’s 2010 to a combination of factors, and figure that (subject to the small sample size) Jeter is probably a better player than he showed this year, but not as good as he was before this year.

NTB: Mark Teixeira's splits this season are striking to me. The switch-hitter's OPS was about 140 points higher from the right side, which bodes well for your club with the Twins starting southpaws in Games 1 and 3. I also notice that Teixeira's OPS was 240 points lower on the road than at home, which obviously doesn't bode nearly as well. What do you make of these splits?

IIATMS: Don’t try to figure out Mark Teixeira. Just don’t. We’ve given up trying. Yes, his 2010 OPS number is down about a hundred points from last year’s near-MVP level, but a year for this guy is either too small or too large a sample size. We’re not sure. Yes, he was more productive from the right side in 2010, but he’s not predictable here either. In 2009, his OPS was 40 points better from the left side; in 2008 he was 92 points better from the left side; in 2006 he was 125 points better from the right side. You tell us what that means. We’re listening. More significant to us is his OPS fluctuation from month to month: .559 in March/April of this year, 1.160 in July, .694 in September/October. But somehow, the guy always seems to make a contribution. For example, Teix manages to draw walks when he can’t get hits – in his combined March/April and September/October, he had more walks than hits. When we make a list of the things we’re worried about for this October, Teix doesn’t make our top 20. (And by the way, thanks for not asking us to explain why Teix’s 2010 UZR was worse than Adam Dunn’s.)

NTB: Give us a breakdown of the Yankees bullpen. Mariano Rivera struggled a bit late in the season but he had another great year and is a postseason legend. Beyond him, however, this doesn't appear to be one of the better groups in baseball. Is there a lefty specialist that you'd trust against the likes of Joe Mauer and Jim Thome late in a game?

IIATMS: Our relief corps got better as the year went on. They ended with a 3.47 ERA (0.02 better than the Twins). Our FIP is not great at 4.06, but blame that on Mo Rivera, whose FIP is usually higher than his ERA (this year a full point higher). The addition of Kerry Wood at the trade deadline was a huge help down the stretch (0.69 ERA, .160 BA against, 10.73 K/9). We don’t expect Wood to be that good in the post-season, but he doesn’t have to be that good to help get us to Mo. As for our LOOGY? That would be household name Boone Logan, a guy whose mere appearance warming in the bullpen used to trigger a spasm of hate tweets in Yankeedom. Only Logan ended the season with an ERA under 3. Against lefties he had a K/9 of over 12 and a FIP of 1.87. He also got better as the year went on: he allowed just one earned run in 13 innings of pitching in July and August. That’s not bad for a LOOGY, and no, we don’t trust Logan versus Joe Mauer in a high-leverage situation. If you know of a LOOGY who IS effective against Joe Mauer, please let us know who that LOOGY is, and we’ll sign him to an eight-figure free agent contract before Wednesday. Only kidding. We wouldn’t do that. So there wouldn’t be any harm in recommending a LOOGY to us. You can trust us.

NTB: What are your thoughts on the Yankees' playoff rotation? CC Sabathia is obviously a horse. Andy Pettitte has owned the Twins historically but carries injury concerns this October. Phil Hughes strikes me as a wild card. Unless they're up in the series 2-1, is there any chance the Yanks don't go back to Sabathia on short rest for Game 4?

IIATMS: We haven’t seen the Yanks’ projected starting rotation, but we think the Yanks will go back to CC in game 4 even if the Yanks ARE up 2-1. The Yanks’ starting rotation consists of a Cy Young runner-up, two question marks, and a threesome that seemed to fight down the stretch for the honor of being left off the post-season roster. We haven’t seen a Yankees-announced post-season rotation yet, but we’ve penciled CC in for three days’ rest in every post-season series in which the Yankees manage to play. CC may need half of 2011 to rest up from what we plan to do to him in the remainder of 2010.

NTB: Finally, give us one key reason the Yankees could win this series and one reason they could lose it.

IIATMS: Same key reason both times: starting pitching. If the Yanks can hold you guys to an average of 4.5 runs a game, then we like our chances. If not, then we’ll be spending much of the post-season making goo-goo eyes at Cliff Lee.

Huge thanks to all the people over at IIATMS for their thoughtful answers. I'm sure we'll be hearing from them again over the course of this series. A few more notes to take you through this final agonizing day before we get this thing started...

* If I did a live, interactive Twins chat here on the blog within the next few days, is that something that people would be interested in participating in?

* One cool aspect of the increased interest in the Twins this year as a result of the new stadium and the quality product on the field is all the new independent apparel that has sprung up. I'm sure you're all familiar with Parker's DiamondCentric label, which has released a number of humorous player-related t-shirt designs including the ever-popular Thome Is My Homey (now available as a hooded sweatshirt).

If you haven't yet, I strongly recommend checking out the "Let's Get Denarded" shirts from the clothing line Seventh.Ink. I got my hands on one of these t-shirts last week and was extremely impressed with its quality; the slick design is printed on American Apparel, so they're actually really nice threads. Please go pay my friends at Seventh.Ink a visit and order your t-shirt or hoody in time for the playoffs!

* Finally, TwinsCentric and a number of other Twins fans will be gathering at at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park for Game 3 of the ALDS, which takes place in New York on Saturday night starting at 7:30 CT. Please join us!

Chicago's Last Chance at Big Dance

The pressure is on for the Chicago White Sox.

They know that this week's three-game series against the Twins represents their last gasp for a postseason berth. It's the last time the Sox will face the team they trail by six games in the AL Central standings, and unless they can sweep the series and cut that sizable deficit in half, they're sunk. Erasing a deficit of five or more games with only 16 left to play borders on impossible when you've got no games left against the team you're chasing (particularly said team hasn't lost consecutive games in almost three weeks).

Ozzie Guillen recognizes the magnitude of this series. He started John Danks on short rest last week, setting up his rotation in advance so that the White Sox would be able to throw their three best starters at the Twins (not including Edwin Jackson, who was one of the league's hottest pitcherrs until he got roughed up by the Royals this weekend).

On the bright side, the Twins will also be trotting out their top three starters this week. Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing and Carl Pavano will likely be the Ron Gardenhire's first three choices in a playoff series (though not in that order), so the Twins will hardly be overmatched. This might also be the last opportunity for those pitchers to brush up against quality competition in meaningful games, because the Twins won't face another above-average opponent until their season-ending four-game series against the Blue Jays at Target Field, by which point the division might be locked up and Gardenhire might already be resting up his top starters for the ALDS.

A few weeks ago, this series stood out as one that might decide the fates of both of these teams. As it stands, the Twins have played well enough over the past few weeks to place all the pressure squarely on the shoulders of the White Sox. Even with a home sweep, the Sox will still have a tough uphill battle in front of them if they want to overcome the Twins. Without a sweep, their season is essentially over.

A Test in Texas

The Twins' impressive late-summer run, which has seen them go 26-10 since the All-Star break, has largely been keyed by strong starting pitching. After posting a 4.60 ERA and surrendering 68 homers in 88 games prior to the Midsummer Classic, Twins starters have been good for a 3.38 ERA with only 14 homers allowed in 36 games since the season's unofficial midpoint.

That improvement can be a bit misleading, since the Twins have played 19 of those 36 games against the Orioles, Royals, Indians and Athletics -- the four lowest-scoring offenses in the American League. Other games have come against a sub-.500 Angels squad and a White Sox team that was in the thick of the division race up until recently but is spiraling and dropped two of three to the Royals over the weekend.

Indeed, it appears that the only playoff-caliber team the Twins have faced during their impressive post-All-Star stretch has been the Rays, in a series where the Twins' pitching staff had its share of both highs and lows.

Tonight, the Twins will finally get another legitimate test as they head into Arlington to face the AL West leading Rangers. This series poses a number of challenges that should tell us a lot about how both clubs might potentially fare in an October series.

The Twins will have their pitching depth tested right away tonight, as they send Nick Blackburn to the hill to take on the American League's fourth highest scoring offense. Blackburn was, of course, an utter disaster over the first half of the season with the Twins, but he did post a 2.49 ERA and 65 percent grounder rate during his four-start stint in the minors. How will those numbers translate to the bigs, where Blackburn will be taking on a division-leading club led by MVP front-runner Josh Hamilton?

While Blackburn's results will be interesting and meaningful, especially if Kevin Slowey's elbow injury turns out to be a long-term concern, the remainder of the series will provide a better glimpse into a potential postseason match-up, as the Twins will send out Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano on Tuesday and Thursday. Brian Duensing, who starts between the two on Wednesday, is looking increasingly likely to grab a spot in a playoff rotation as well based on recent performance.

Given that both struggled in their last turns on the hill, I'll be interested to see how Pavano and Liriano rebound. The spotlight will shine brightly on Liriano, who was originally scheduled to start tonight but had his turn pushed back due to a bout with dead arm. He must show improved command to restore confidence that has begun to wane with three straight erratic outings. He's got his work cut out for him, as he's scheduled to face Cliff Lee on Thursday.

Of particular interest, for me, will be seeing how the Twins' top two starters handle Texas runners on the base paths. Pavano's complete inability to stop opposing base runners from swiping bags has been perhaps his greatest downfall in what has otherwise been a stellar campaign. Opponents are 28-for-34 on stolen bases against Pavano in 25 starts. Liriano hasn't been quite as bad, as he's only allowed 10 steals on 13 chances, but he did allow Juan Pierre to steal second without a throw twice in his last start.

The Rangers rank fifth in the AL in stolen bases. The Rays rank first. If they want to win in October, the Twins must prove that they can control the running game. So far, they've not been able to do that very well even with their best pitchers on the mound and their Gold Glove catcher behind the plate.

Series Preview: Twins @ Yankees

The Twins entered this season with high expectations, and through 34 games they've not disappointed. Their record stands at 22-12 and they sit three games ahead in the AL Central. They've lost only one series all year. The offense is scoring runs, the rotation is delivering strong starts and the bullpen has mostly held up. This Twins team has given us little to complain about.

Yet, in a way, it seems almost as though the Twins have simply been going through the motions up to this point. Have they truly been challenged? Really, one should expect a team with a $100 million payroll and a roster packed with as much talent as this one to consistently win series against sub-.500 teams, and that's almost exclusively what the Twins have faced so far. Among opponents the Twins have faced up to this point, only the Red Sox and Tigers currently sport a winning record. One of those teams -- Detroit -- handed the Twins their only series loss of the season. The other -- Boston -- slumped badly early in the season, when the Twins had the fortune of facing them.

Now, the Twins will get their first real test as they embark on a seven-game road trip that will have them touring baseball's toughest division, the AL East. Before playing two-game sets against the solid Blue Jays and the improving Red Sox, the Twins will head to New York for a series that many Twins fans (and, I would guess, players and coaches) have had circled on their schedules for many months.

The Twins' ineptitude against the Yankees over the past decade or so is well documented. They're 3-23 in Yankee Stadium since Ron Gardenhire took over as manager and went 0-10 against the Bombers last season, including a three-game postseason sweep. While the Yankees have almost always had a better team, it's astonishing how much the Twins have struggled to win games against them. At times, the losses have been uncontested blowouts, at other times they've been closely fought battles where a few fortuitous breaks enabled the Yankees to squeeze by. What's been constant is this: the Twins have had an incredibly hard time finding a way to win against this baseball team, particularly in New York's hostile home stadium.

Of course, this year's Twins team offers a very different dynamic than past Gardenhire clubs. For once, they've broken into the top third of the league in team payroll. They're still not close to the Yankees in that regard, but they're spending enough to boast quality players at most positions. In the ALDS last year, the Yankees out-homered the Twins 6-0; that's not likely to happen again. In fact, it would hardly come as a big surprise if the Twins were able to hit more balls out of the park than their opponents this weekend.

Let's take a look at the pitching match-ups that are lined up for this key series:

Game 1 (Friday): Scott Baker vs. A.J. Burnett

Burnett's great stuff hasn't been as overwhelming to hitters this year as it has been in the past. He's notched only 32 strikeouts over 45 innings in his first seven starts, translating to a 6.4 K/9 IP rate that would rank as easily his lowest since 2001 if it stuck. That hasn't stopped Burnett from being effective, as he's cut down on walks while going 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA up to this point, but it might catch up with him at some point. Maybe it already has; he's coming off a disastrous outing against the Red Sox on Sunday in which he allowed nine runs -- eight earned -- over 4 1/3 innings. The Twins might be getting him at just the right time.

The opposite is true of Baker. After struggling through the month of April -- as he is wont to do -- Baker has gotten his month of May off to a far better start. He chipped in a Quality Start against the Tigers in his first outing this month, and then turned in his best performance of the season his last time out, shutting out the Orioles over eight innings while fanning eight and walking none. Baker is a guy who can really become a force when he gets into a groove, and we might be seeing signs of that now.

Game 2 (Saturday): Francisco Liriano vs. Andy Pettitte

I hope that many of you will be taking this contest in with me at Majors in Bloomington tomorrow afternoon. This game will be a great test for Liriano, who was victimized by terrible luck in his last turn in giving up five runs and 10 hits without getting hit particularly hard. If Liriano, who seemingly had a hard time putting dud performances behind him last year, can rebound from that outing and deliver a strong start against the Yankees in New York, he'll make believers out of any lingering doubters out there. The Yankees have been among the least strikeout-prone teams in the league this year, so he may have to rely on ground balls rather than punch-outs to succeed. Fortunately, he's shown that he can do that.

Pettitte, like Burnett, is a guy whom the Twins would seem to be facing at a somewhat opportune time. While he'd been dealing over his first six starts, going 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA, Pettitte had his last turn skipped due to elbow inflamation. He wouldn't be slotted back into the rotation if the Yankees didn't feel he was ready, but Pettitte is 37 and these things don't always heal quickly for aging vets.

Game 3 (Sunday): Nick Blackburn vs. Sergio Mitre

Blackburn's season got off to a horrid start, but he's shown signs of settling in lately, having delivered consecutive Quality Starts for the Twins. Given his astonishing inability to miss bats (he's struck out only nine of the 169 batters he's faced this year), Blackburn presents the most concerning match-up against this imposing New York lineup, but it's tough to forget the admirable effort he put forth the last time he pitched in this stadium, hurling 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in last year's ALDS.

Mitre has achieved solid results this season, but he's nothing more than a veteran swingman at this point. Given his major susceptibility to lefty hitters, this is a match-up that bodes well for the Twins.

So there you have it. Objectively, it's tough to see any of these pitching match-ups being drastically slanted in New York's favor. The Twins are fortunate enough to skip CC Sabathia and Phil Hughes, who have both been tremendous this year. Several of New York's offensive regulars are banged up as well. There are no excuses. It's time for the Twins to get this monkey off their shoulders.

Those who have watched the Twins regularly up to this point know that this is a good team capable of competing with anyone. But if the Twins want to prove to the nation that they're for real while shedding the widely held belief that they play scared against the Big Bad Bronx Bombers, they need to make a statement this weekend.

Update: For a view from the other side, check out the series preview over at Yankeeist.

ALDS Game 1 Preview: Twins @ Yankees

When I was younger, one of my favorite cartoon characters was Underdog. A scrappy little pup with tiny lumps for biceps who doubled as a humble shoe-shiner in his normal life, Underdog spoke in constant rhymes and did battle with nefarious villains who always held numerous clear advantages in battle. When the evil-doers were terrorizing the town, Underdog would fly in and spout off his famous catch-phrase ("There's no need to fear, Underdog is here!") before ultimately overcoming the bad guy and saving the day.

Underdog was a great character because he was designed to be loved. Everyone loves the underdog. When it comes to sporting events, disinterested fans will quite frequently root for the team that is widely expected to lose, if only because a victory by the underdog will make the game all the more dramatic and exciting.

The Twins, who battled back from a seven-game deficit in early September to capture the AL Central crown, will assume the underdog role once again this evening when they take on the mighty Yankees in New York in the first round of the American League playoffs. Just 20 hours removed from their whirlwind victory over the Tigers in a thrilling AL Central tie-breaker, the Twins will venture into one of the toughest postseason atmospheres in all of sports to challenge a club that has knocked them out of the playoffs twice in their past three postseason trips.

Calling the Twins underdogs in this series is hardly novel. Anyone flat-out predicting a series victory for the Twins is either doing so to shake things up or out of pure homerism. This ALDS is the classic David and Goliath story; the Twins, a team armed with a $65M payroll that just barely managed to claw their way out of a weak division, taking on the Yankees, a $200M team with that won 103 games this year and and came out on top of the league's best division by a healthy eight games. The Yankees went went 7-0 against the Twins during the regular season this year and are 26-5 against the Twins in New York during the Ron Gardenhire era.

By their own standards, the Twins had a fairly strong year offensively, but they are certainly no match for the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees lineup features seven players with 20-plus home runs; their No. 8 hitter went deep more times than all but two players who will be in the Twins' lineup tonight. Eight Yankees regulars finished the regular season with an OPS over 850, a claim that only three Twins players will be able to make tonight.

And then, of course, there's the Twins' huge pitching disadvantage. Brian Duensing entered this season as a mediocre 25-year-old minor-league lefty coming off a 5-11, 4.28 ERA season in Triple-A. Had you told me in April that he'd be the team's Game One starter in a postseason series I'd have gone Joe Wilson on you. Yet, here he sits as essentially the only remotely well-rested pitcher on the Twins' roster, and his unexpectedly solid performance after being added to the rotation in August has the Twins hoping he can hold his own against the league's most potent lineup in a hugely intimidating setting. The Yankees will counter with their prized offseason pitching acquisition, C.C. Sabathia, who has lived up to the hype in the first year of his mega-deal by posting a 19-8 record and 3.37 ERA. Sabathia, a self-proclaimed Twins-hater, has accumulated a 3.05 ERA in 28 career starts against Minnesota.

Beyond the mismatch on paper, we must of course note the fact that the Twins are undoubtedly exhausted both physically and emotionally after last night's 12-inning marathon and in general after the past couple weeks of non-stop must-win baseball. Not only have they had a couple days to rest up, the Yankees have had their postseason slot locked up for some time now and have been essentially been preparing for this series for weeks. They've got their top starters in line to pitch the first three games, and all their best hitters healthy and locked in.

It's tough to imagine the Twins taking this series. In fact, it's pretty tough to imagine them even taking a game. But this is a Twins blog, so dammit, let's lay out three reasons why the Twins might stand a chance tonight:

1) The Yankees haven't seen Duensing as a starter.
Sometimes minor-league pitchers with mediocre stuff are able to initially garner effective results in the majors since hitters haven't seen them before and scouting reports haven't really caught up with them. We saw that earlier this season with Anthony Swarzak, who posted a 3.74 ERA over his first eight starts before imploding, and we seem to be seeing it now with Duensing, who has gone 5-1 with a 2.63 ERA since joining the Twins rotation in August (that excludes a scoreless inning of relief in the Royals series this past weekend). The Yankees haven't had a prolonged look at Duensing, so it's possible he can keep them off-balance with his crafty stuff.

2) The Twins have some power.
Home runs can change the complexion of a ballgame, as we saw last night when home runs by Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera awakened the Twins offense from its early-game slumber. Last year, the Twins ranked dead last in the AL with 111 home runs; this year, they were closer to the middle of the pack with 172. Balls also tend to fly out of this new Yankee Stadium, particularly to right field, which should benefit Kubel and Joe Mauer. A few long balls, particularly with runners aboard, could go a long way toward giving the Twins a chance in this game.

3) These are the 2009 Minnesota Twins.
It sounds cheesy, but really, can we put anything past this team? Contemporary analysts and stat-heads like to downplay the true value of "momentum," but it's tough to do so with the way the Twins have played lately. Right now it seems like they're coming through with big hits at every crucial moment and getting every break to go their way. Never was that more evident than in last night's game. It has often been theorized that the reason the Twins have played so poorly against the Yankees during Gardenhire's tenure is because they don't believe they can win in New York. But if that was true before, I have a hard time believing it is now. With the way things have gone for this team recently, I doubt there's a team out there they don't think they can find a way to beat. That confidence, combined with the low expectations nearly everyone has placed on them in this series, could prove crucial.

There's no need to fear, the underdogs are here. Go get 'em.

A Big Day

Inclement weather postponed last night's series opener between the Twins and Tigers, so the teams are now scheduled to open this crucial four-game set with a day-night doubleheader today. That should make for some hardcore drama.

If the Twins can find a way to sweep today's twin billing, they will be in great shape heading into the final two games of the series, needing to win only one of the two relatively favorable match-ups to leave Detroit tied for first place. If the Twins drop both these games, they're essentially sunk; they'd need to take both the final two games of the series and then they'd still need a minor miracle during the final weekend of the season to have a shot at capturing the division. If the teams split these two games -- which seems like the most likely outcome -- the Twins will need to buckle down and win on Wednesday and Thursday pull even with Detroit. That's not an absurdly tall task, since -- as I mentioned in yesterday's post -- the Tigers have their two worst starters going in those games.

So basically, the Twins need to make sure they win at least one today, and that means that if they lose the early contest they'll really their backs against the wall with Justin Verlander towing the opposing rubber in the nightcap. This is going to be a monumentally big day for the Twins, and a great opportunity for them to show exactly what they're made of. I'm excited to find out.

Crunch Time

After taking two of three from the Royals this past weekend while the Tigers dropped two of their three games in Chicago, the Twins now sit two games out of first place entering this week's pivotal four-game series against in Detroit.

Now, the real work begins. The Twins are set to venture into enemy territory knowing that each game is essentially a must-win. A series split would leave them facing a two-game deficit entering their final series and essentially needing a miracle in the season's final weekend to have a shot at the division crown. Taking three of four would leave the two teams tied for first place. And of course, a series sweep would put the Twins in the driver's seat, two games ahead of the Tigers and needing simply to take care of business at home against the Royals next weekend.

The Twins have not swept a four-game series all year. In fact, they haven't even won one. Now, they'll be looking to take at least three of four in what is sure to be an intensely raucous environment. That's not good. However, there are a few things that bode well for the Twins as they head into this critical four-game set:

1) The Tigers have Eddie Bonine and Nate Robertson scheduled to pitch on Wednesday and Thursday.
Bonine is somehow managed to take a no-hitter into the sixth inning against the White Sox on Friday night (a game he eventually lost), but he is not a very good pitcher. He holds a 4.98 ERA and 25-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 56 career innings at the major-league level and had a 4.52 ERA in 766 1/3 career minor-league innings. A right-hander with mediocre stuff, the Twins should be able to feast on him. Robertson, meanwhile, has a 5.56 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 27 big-league appearances this year and has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors over the past two seasons. He handled the Twins when he last faced them just over a week ago, but like Bonine he's not a guy that should be trusted in crucial games.

2) The Twins have had success against Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander, the starters in the first two games.
Porcello is having a fine season and is a strong contender for the American League's Rookie of the Year honors, but against the Twins he has allowed 19 hits while posting a 7-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 17 innings while going 1-2 in three starts. Verlander, meanwhile, is enjoying an excellent year and leads the league in strikeouts, but for whatever reason the Twins have been able to get to him. In three turns against the Twins this year, Verlander is 0-2 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.

3) The Twins are hot.
Despite yesterday's loss to the best pitcher in baseball, the Twins have been playing exceedingly well lately. They've won 11 of their past 13 games and have scored six or more runs in nine of those games. Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer have been in top form and some of the lineup's lesser players are contributing more than they have all year.

4) The Tigers are not.
They managed a road sweep over the hapless Indians prior to their latest series in Chicago, but still have been struggling overall recently. The Tigers have dropped 11 of their past 18 games and have failed to take care of business against low-quality clubs like the White Sox and Royals. They have seen their division lead drop from a season-high seven games on September 6 to just two games as we enter tonight's series opener. It's possible that the Tigers will amp up and get back on track this week now that the Twins are within striking distance, but momentum is certainly not on Detroit's side.

Both these teams are going to be putting it all on the line over the next four days. This is going to be intense, postseason type baseball. After a long and sometimes seemingly hopeless season-long pursuit, the Twins now have the opportunity to climb into first place in the AL Central for the first time since May 14.

Twins/Royals Series Preview

With the Tigers beating the Indians again last night, the Twins find themselves three games out of first place with 10 games to go. It's not an insurmountable deficit and the Twins will have their shot to make up ground directly when they head to Detroit next week, but first they need to take care of business in Kansas City this weekend.

The good news is that the Royals are not a very good team. The bad news is that they've been playing quite well recently and the Twins have a history of struggling against them late in the year. The worst news is that the Twins will have to finish up this series by facing Zack Greinke, the league's best pitcher and a guy they've been lucky enough to avoid up until this point.

As much as I'd like to say that a series victory here would be palatable, that's really not the case. The Twins need to sweep. They can't afford to lose any ground to the Tigers, and really they can't even afford to just keep pace with them. They need a sweep and they need to hope the Tigers lose one or two in Chicago.

With that in mind, let's break down the Twins' three match-ups at Kaufmann for this weekend:

Game 1: RHP Carl Pavano vs. RHP Robinson Tejeda

After spending much of the year working out of the Royals bullpen, Tejeda has slid into the rotation in September and he's been lights-out. In four starts this month, Tejeda has gone 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA and .117 opponents' batting average, striking out 24 and walking 10 over 22 1/3 innings of work. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he complements it with a nasty slider, which makes him extremely tough on right-handed hitters. The Twins will have to hope their left-handed batters can carry the load. Patience will be key, as Tejeda has a history of struggling to throw strikes. Pavano has quietly rattled off six straight Quality Starts.

Game 2: RHP Scott Baker vs. LHP Lenny DiNardo

This match-up heavily favors the Twins on paper. Baker has of course been terrific after rebounding from a dreadful start and has a history of dominating the Royals (2.95 ERA in 11 career starts). DiNardo, meanwhile, is coming off an absolute dud against the Red Sox in which he coughed up eight runs on 10 hits and six walks and threw only half of his 116 pitches for strikes. DiNardo is the type of junk-tossing lefty that has given the Twins headaches in the past, but there's no excuse for them not to romp him in a game of this magnitude.

Game 3: LHP Francisco Liriano vs. RHP Zack Greinke

This is the biggie. Finally we'll get our first look at Greinke, who is having an absolute monster season and will be the runaway Cy Young winner if there is any justice in the world. Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with Liriano, who will need to be on top of his game because Greinke doesn't give up multiple runs in a start very often. In fact, he hasn't done so since August 25; over his past five starts he has allowed one run over 35 innings (0.26 ERA). And in his last start prior to that span, he allowed two runs in eight innings and struck out 15 batters. The Twins have had some success against top AL pitchers this year (Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay come to mind) but Greinke is a different beast entirely. The last time Liriano started against the Royals he tossed seven innings of one-run ball, yielding only three hits and a single walk while fanning eight. If he can return to that form, this could be a great duel. If not, it's tough to imagine how the Twins are going to find a way to win this thing.

Twins/White Sox: The Big Series

The time is upon us. A series that many had circled on their schedules at the beginning of the season is here, and the implications are huge. Win zero, season over. Win one, season (almost certainly) over. Win two, decent chance. Win three, driver's seat. It's as simple as that.

And now, for your reading pleasure, here are some excerpts from this series' Twins Dugout Splinters, which I wrote up for GameDay Magazine yesterday. Please pick up a copy of the (cheap!) program if you get out to a game this week!

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Chasing the Same Thing

Entering the season, this is exactly the type of scenario a team asks for. It’s late September, and the Twins control their own destiny. They have a shot at the postseason, and if they truly want it they can take it.

OK, the situation is not ideal. They trail the White Sox by 2.5 games, and even if the Twins win all six remaining games on their schedule, they could still miss the playoffs. (The White Sox could sweep the Indians in their final series, then beat the Tigers in a makeup game, then force a one-game playoff against the Twins to determine the division winner.) Still, the Twins will be in decent shape if they can take two of three in this series – that would put them 1.5 games out going into their final series against the Royals. They’d be in very good shape if they can sweep this series, as that would put them a half-game in front and would put pressure on the White Sox to keep pace despite having a tougher match-up (Cleveland) in the season’s final series.

Asking for a sweep, or even a series victory, against the White Sox is a tall order. They are a good baseball team, and the three starters who the Twins are throwing in this series have not performed well versus the South-Siders this year. Against the Sox, Scott Baker is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts, Nick Blackburn is 1-2 with a 6.14 ERA in four starts, and Kevin Slowey is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA in three starts. Yet, all three of these hurlers have pitched exceedingly well at home (Baker: 3.28 ERA, Blackburn: 2.92 ERA, Slowey: 3.08 ERA) and these Twins in general have just played good ball at the Metrodome, with a 49-26 record here.

For all their differences, the Twins and White Sox really aren’t all that different. Obviously, their overall records are very similar. Their home/road splits are nearly identical. The Twins rank third in the AL in runs scored; the White Sox rank fifth. The Twins rank seventh in team ERA; the Sox rank sixth. Both teams rely on strong starting pitching, and both have dealt with some serious bullpen issues. In 13 head-to-head games this year, the Twins have won seven and the White Sox have won eight. These two clubs are about as evenly matched as they come, and that’s what makes this series truly intriguing.

What’s Working

The Twins’ chase of the White Sox in the AL Central will not be the only exciting race for Minnesota baseball fans to follow over the final week of the season. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are working on capturing their own individual titles, and unlike the Twins in the quest for the division crown, these two enter the last week as frontrunners in their respective races.

Entering play on Monday, Mauer led the American League in batting average at .330, with a relatively sizable lead over his nearest challengers, Dustin Pedroia (.324) and Magglio Ordonez (.323). Mauer won’t lead the major leagues in batting like he did in 2006 (Chipper Jones of the Braves entered the week hitting .362), but for a 25-year-old catcher to own two AL batting titles would be pretty amazing.

Meanwhile, Morneau may be on his way to becoming the AL RBI king, as his total of 128 leads Miguel Cabrera (125) Josh Hamilton (124). It seemed for much of the season that Hamilton would run away with this honor – he had driven in 103 runs through his first 100 games – but his pace has slowed considerably and Morneau has been a run-producing machine since the All-Star break.

The Twins haven’t been playing particularly well as of late, but the M&M boys have been doing everything within their power to carry the load. In the month of September, Mauer is hitting .391 and Morneau has knocked in 20 runs in 19 games. With the season winding down, the Twins are locked in a tight race for the division title while one of their stars aims for the batting title and another has legitimate MVP aspirations. Something about all this seems vaguely familiar…

What’s Not Working

That the Twins find themselves with a realistic shot at a playoff berth can be attributed in no small part to the offense, which has been the highest-scoring unit to grace the Metrodome since 1996. But this success has also had a lot to do with the unexpectedly strong contributions from the young and inexperienced pitching rotation. All five of the team’s current starters entered this season as relatively unknown quantities, and all five have proven themselves to be quality major-league pitchers.

But here, late in the season, this pitching staff is starting to crumble. Twins’ pitchers have posted a 6.19 ERA over the team’s past six contests entering the Chicago series, and this normally consistent rotation had gone five consecutive games without a Quality Start prior to Francisco Liriano’s outstanding performance on Sunday.

It’s possible that this group is going through a rough stretch. We’ve seen that before; remember the four-game series in Chicago back in June? But it’s also possible these guys are worn down. That’d be understandable, given that not one had put together a full season at the major-league level prior to this year, but if that’s the case it doesn’t bode well for the team going into this final week – or into the playoffs.

For All the Marbles

On Thursday, I wrote that the Twins would have to keep pace with the White Sox over the weekend in order to have a shot at capturing the division during the final week of the season. I guessed that this would mean taking three of four from the Rays, and while the Twins weren't able to do that, a series split got the job done with the Sox dropping their final game against the Yankees on Thursday night and then losing once in Kansas City over the weekend. And now it all comes down to this.

This late-September Twins/White Sox series is one we've been eyeing for much of the season. Tomorrow, it begins. And the Twins, trailing by 2.5 games in the AL Central, cannot afford to simply win this series. Going into the final series of the season with a 1.5-game deficit forces them to rely on way too many lucky events falling into place. If the Twins want to make the playoffs, they need to sweep the White Sox and take over first place. That's a tall task, especially considering that they won't have Francisco Liriano going in the series, but they do have one major factor playing into their favor.

The Twins will be playing at home, in front of large enthusiastic crowds. This is when we've seen this team at its best this season. They can put their road woes behind them because all six remaining games will be played in the comfort of their own park.

It's go time. Buckle up.

On the Line

The Twins had their 2-5 hitters go 8-for-15. The offense managed to scrape together four runs on 10 hits and three walks against Cy Young shoe-in Cliff Lee. Justin Morneau drove in runs in the clutch. The Twins battled back from a two-run deficit to tie the game in the seventh. All of this, and they still couldn't find a way to win. For as soon as the Twins had tied the game, the Indians rallied right back with two runs in the bottom half of the inning to bury them.

There were a multitude of ugly aspects to last night's game. The offense went 2-for-12 with runners in scoring position and stranded 13 runners. Scott Baker continued a trend of starting pitchers coming up short when needed most. Matt Guerrier once again looked horrible and utterly overmatched by every hitter he faced. (Seriously, when is Ron Gardenhire going to get the picture that Guerrier CANNOT be counted on to get people out in tight situations?) Joe Mauer threw a ball clear into right field when trying to throw out a runner at second, and Denard Span compounded the error by failing to scoop the ball as it slowly rolled toward him.

As much as I'd love to go off on an angry rant about this team choking away the season by inventing new ways to lose on a nightly basis, I find myself speechless. Really, I'm more disheartened than angry as I watch these games slip away night after night.

Now, let's not get carried away here. Even after losing last night, the Twins remain 2.5 games behind the White Sox, who lost to the Yankees. The Twins now head to Tampa Bay for four games against the Rays, while the Sox finish up one more game against the Yankees and then head to Kansas City for three games against the Royals. I'm going to go ahead and say that in order to have a shot at the postseason, the Twins must not lose any ground in the race before their series against the White Sox before the two teams face off in the Metrodome starting next Tuesday. And in order for that to happen, I think they need to win at least three of four in Tampa Bay. The Rays are a great team and they've been damn near unbeatable at home, so taking it to them at Tropicana Field is a tall task to say the least. But the Twins could prove a lot by finding it within themselves to take this series.

The Twins aren't out of it yet. The playoffs are still very realistically within reach. But if this team intends on playing in October, now is the time to prove they want it. It's time for these kids to grow up.

"And Here We Go..."

... To quote a memorably delivered line from the Joker, Heath Ledger's brilliantly portrayed character from the recent Batman flick. It seems Major League Baseball had their own cruel joke in mind when designing the Twins' 2008 schedule.

By defeating the A's 3-1 yesterday afternoon, the Twins polished off another series victory at the Metrodome. Their play at home has been nothing short of sterling, as they've won 30 of their past 39 games there and haven't lost a series in the Dome since the first week of June. The Twins continue to look much sharper at home than on the road, and that is going to make the upcoming 30-game stretch crucial.

The White Sox once against defeated the pathetic Mariners yesterday to maintain a one-game lead in the AL Central. Now the Twins embark on a 14-game road trip which will kick off in Los Angeles tonight. After finishing up that tough stretch, the Twins will return home for six games before hitting the road for 10 more. That's 24 away games compared to six home games over the next month. Oh, and they'll get only two days off during that entire span. It's hardly an exaggeration to say that this stretch could easily make or break the Twins' 2008 season.

On the surface, this doesn't bode well. The Twins have played a lot of sloppy baseball on the road. And, certainly, they'll have a tough task right out of the gate with the road-trip-opening four-game set against the Angels, who happen to own the best record in baseball. But the Twins do have a number of things working in their favor as they set forth on this critical trip.

For one thing, they have momentum. They've won six of their last seven and are 12-6 overall in the month of August. This consistent winning has come about largely thanks to some strong hitting -- they've averaged 5.8 runs per game this month and have failed to score at least four in only three of their 18 games. They have also gotten some pretty good starting pitching lately, but of course that will be put to the test as they venture into hostile ballparks. Perhaps the most intriguing performer to follow will be Francisco Liriano. He picked up his fourth consecutive win yesterday while once again allowing zero earned runs, but he wasn't exactly sharp. He had trouble finding the strike zone, as he often has this year, and got as many outs in the air as on the ground, reversing an encouraging trend I hoped he'd started with his previous outing. If he can get locked in and start showing better command, he can be a crucial weapon for the Twins during this difficult stretch.

Of course, the Twins' biggest weakness this year has been their bullpen and it has been especially vulnerable on the road. But, things seem to be headed in the right direction in that area as well. Boof Bonser seems to be settling in, with a 2.79 ERA in his past seven appearances. He's proven himself to be a clearly better option than Brian Bass, and there was really never much utility in having both pitchers on the roster, so it made sense when the Twins demoted Bass to the minors yesterday to make room for Alexi Casilla. It had become quite clear that Bass had lost favor with his manager, as he'd found his way into only five of the team's 18 August games after making 12 appearances in June and 10 in July.

Taking away a reliever from an already depleted bullpen in order to create a logjam in the middle infield does seem a bit puzzling, and I was a bit surprised that Adam Everett was not the odd man out. My guess it that the Twins are waiting to see how Casilla's thumb reacts to everyday play, and that if he's able to handle everything, Everett will be let go shortly to make room for Matt Tolbert, who is expected back on September 1.

Even with the roster adjustments that have already taken place and the ones that are expected over the next couple weeks, it will be up to the current core players to carry the team through this tough stretch. And make no mistake, will be a tough one. But, to stick with the Dark Knight theme and quote Aaron Eckart's Harvey Dent, "the night is always darkest before the dawn." After finishing up this brutal string of 30 games, the Twins will return home to finish up their season with three-game series against the White Sox and Royals.

Let's hope that those games are meaningful, and that the Twins are in position to vanquish their divisional nemesis and take a shot at putting together their own blockbuster sequel in October.

Notes for the Weekend

After putting the finishing touches on a sweep over the Nationals with a 9-3 victory yesterday, the Twins have won five of their last six games and have moved back above the .500 mark to 37-36. They have rebounded nicely from a 2-8 stretch which nearly knocked them into third place in the division, and are very much hanging around in this race. They currently trail the White Sox by 4 1/2 games for the AL Central lead, though it's worth noting that the Tigers have won nine straight and are breathing down the Twins' necks.

This weekend, the Twins have a three-game set against the Diamondbacks, who started the season very hot but haven't won a series in June. Tonight's tilt will pit Scott Baker against Randy Johnson, one of the game's all-time great left-handers and a pitcher who has performed quite well against the Twins historically. If the Twins right-handed hitters can't start to reverse their brutal trends against southpaws, this could be a very tough game. Tomorrow's game will be attended by a smattering of citizens from the SBG community (including myself), as Mr. Ball Guy will be holding his annual convention with a picnic preceding the ballgame. Nick Blackburn will get the nod against Micah Owings in that game; it should be interesting to see how Blackburn holds up after having his last start skipped due to elbow soreness. Sunday presents another interesting match-up with Livan Hernandez going against Brandon Webb. On May 16, Hernandez was 6-1 with a 3.90 ERA and Webb was 9-0 with a 2.56 ERA; since that point, Hernandez has gone 1-3 with a 7.91 and Webb has gone 2-3 with a 4.54. Certainly Hernandez's drop-off has been far steeper, but both pitchers have cooled off after strong starts. Webb lasted just 3 1/3 innings while surrendering seven runs in his most recent outing, and has experienced decreased velocity as of late due to what he's suggested may be a dead arm period. Webb is a terrific pitcher, but it looks like the Twins might be catching him at the right time.

I hope everyone has a great weekend, and I look forward to seeing some of you tomorrow afternoon.

Series Preview: Twins/Marlins

Coming off a strong finish in New York, the Twins now head south to take on the Florida Marlins in a three-game series. The Twins/Marlins match-up is an interesting one in that both are perceived as scrappy small-market teams that are able to compete thanks to young talent and smart management. The reality is that Minnesota is essentially a mid-market team at this point, boasting a team payroll of about $71 million that ranks them 19th in the major leagues. The Marlins' team payroll is much lower at around $30.5 million, ranking them 29th, and they have only five players on their roster making over $1 million this season (the Twins have 14).

And yet, those Marlins continue to compete. They are in fourth place in the NL East, but they sit just 4.5 games behind the division-leading Mets with a 35-38 record. The Marlins are able to accomplish this thanks to a dazzling collection of young talent. Hanley Ramirez, whom the Marlins acquired from the Red Sox in the Josh Beckett trade, is following up his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2006 with another fine season in '07. Through 70 games, Ramirez is batting .321/.381/.497 with 18 doubles, three triples and nine homers to go along with 22 stolen bases. Second baseman Dan Uggla, who is also coming off an outstanding rookie season, is hitting for big power with 28 doubles and 13 home runs, but he's batting just .261 and has been strikeout-prone. Miguel Cabrera has been spectacular as usual, posting a .994 OPS with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Third baseman Aaron Boone is a guy who has been mentioned in some Twins' trade rumors; he is having a resurgent season with a .286/.390/.427 line.

This series will match up a couple very good young teams, but the Twins have a more talented roster and they have some favorable pitching match-ups. This could be a good opportunity for the Twins to pick up a sweep on the road and pick up some steam in the AL Central as we head toward the All-Star break.

A breakdown of the pitching match-ups this weekend:

Tonight: Boof Bonser (5-3, 4.33) vs. Scott Olsen (5-6, 4.89)
The Twins can't seem to escape facing these tricky left-handers. Olsen is a better pitcher than his numbers show, but he's been very up-and-down for the Marlins this season. The 23-year-old has struggled with his control, issuing three or more walks in nine of his 15 starts. If the Twins can show the same type of patience against him that they did against Oliver Perez on Wednesday, they should be able to wear him down and get to the Marlins' mediocre bullpen early. The key for Bonser will be to attack opposing hitters and try to get through at least the sixth inning.

Saturday: Carlos Silva (4-8, 4.20) vs. Josh Johnson (0-1, 9.82)
Silva has gotten the worst run support of any pitcher in the major leagues so far this season. The Twins offense needs to step up and score some runs behind him. Don't be deceived by Johnson's inflated ERA; he just made his first start of the season against the White Sox on Monday and had to shake off some rust as he was knocked around for eight runs (four earned) over 3 1/3 innings. Don't forget that Johnson was a strong RotY candidate last year, when he went 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and .236 BAA. As for Silva, if his recent pattern means anything, he's due for a good game. His last four starts:
6/2 @ Athletics: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
6/8 vs. Nationals: 3 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
6/13 vs. Braves: 9 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
6/18 @ Mets: 6 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Sunday: Johan Santana (7-6, 2.91) vs. Dontrelle Willis (7-6, 4.90)
Santana and Willis are both left-handed aces who have posted a 7-6 record on the season, but that's about where the similarities end between these two. Santana is on top of his game and coming off a complete-game shutout against the Mets on Tuesday. Willis lasted just one inning in his last start against the White Sox, and his numbers on the season are far from overwhelming. Since going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA as a 23-year-old back in 2005, things have gone steadily downhill for Dontrelle. In '05, Willis threw 236 1/3 innings with 170 strikeouts and 55 walks. In '06, he threw 223 1/3 innings with 160 strikeouts and 83 walks. This season, he's on pace for 215 innings with 149 strikeouts and 98 walks. His batting average against has gone up from .243 in '05, to .274 in '06, to .285 so far this year. Perhaps the rest of the league has adjusted to that funky delivery? For what it's worth, the Twins have never faced him before.

Series Preview: Twins/Indians

After averaging 2.7 runs over their past 10 games, the Twins busted out for 16 against the Tigers on Sunday night, salvaging a victory to cap off what was a disappointing homestand. Now the Twins will hit the road for what will be a tough week and a half, as they play nine games in nine days against the Indians, Brewers and Rangers. Today we'll take a look at the first of those three series which kicks off tonight in Cleveland.

The Indians have been outstanding this year, boasting a 21-14 record which places them second in the AL Central behind the Tigers. Most would agree that Indians underperformed last year, largely because their bullpen frequently struggled to hold leads. That 'pen has shown marked improvement this year, which has been a major factor in their terrific play. On the surface, it appears that their new closer Joe Borowski has been a disaster, as he holds a 9.00 ERA and 1.73 WHIP on the season. However, those numbers are a bit misleading. He blew a save against the A's on Sunday when he surrendered four earned runs while recording just two outs; he also had a horrendous outing against the Yankees in mid-April in which he allowed six earned runs over 2/3 of an inning. If you take those two duds out of the equation, Borowski has posted a 3.29 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP to go along 18 strikeouts over 13 and 2/3 innings, and he's racked up 12 saves on the season. Meanwhile, the rest of the bullpen has been quite good. Fernando Cabrera, who struggled quite a bit last season, holds a 3.24 ERA and 24/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 16 2/3 innings. Tom Mastny has posted a 3.31 ERA and with 15 strikeouts and two walks over 16 and 1/3 innings. Rafael Betancourt has posted a 2.45 ERA and has issued just one walk over 14 2/3 innings. Former Twin and lefty specialist Aaron Fultz has held southpaws to a .130 batting average while posting a 2.25 ERA over 12 1/3 innings.

Meanwhile, the offense has been solid. The Indians are averaging 5.29 runs per game (compared to 4.51 for the Twins); they trail only the Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers in runs scored. Grady Sizemore, who both Mr. Mosvick and myself picked as our AL MVP favorite in our preseason predictions, has cooled off considerably after a hot start and is batting just .238, but he's still drawing plenty of walks (as evidenced by his .381 on-base percentage) and he's 12-for-12 on stolen base attempts. In short, he could give the Twins some trouble. Travis Hafner was a huge pain for the Twins in a two-game series at the Dome earlier this season, when he reached base seven times in 10 plate appearances with a homer and double. Overall, his average and slugging percentage are down a bit from his career levels, but he's clearly still a major threat. Victor Martinez is hitting very well, Ryan Garko has emerged as a very good hitter, and Trot Nixon has done well offensively.

The Indians have been extremely tough to beat at their home park this season, where they are 11-3, and the Twins have not generally played very well lately. All of this would seem to indicate that the Twins have their work cut out for them, but hopefully the offense can pick up where it left off on Sunday and the Twins' arms can hold down the Tribe's powerful offense. A preview of the pitching match-ups:

Tonight: Ramon Ortiz (3-3, 3.80) vs. Paul Byrd (2-1, 2.84)
Both these guys seem to be pitching over their heads. Ortiz entered this season with a 4.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP; those numbers are currently at 3.80 and 1.11. Byrd entered the season with a 4.32 ERA and 1.31 WHIP; he's currently at 2.84 and 1.29. Byrd has been hittable this year but he's gotten the job done when it's counted. Opposing hitters have batted .411 against him with nobody on base, but just .140 with runners aboard. That's not likely sustainable and it indicates that his ERA is probably artificially low. Left-handed hitters have had some real success against Byrd, batting .313/.374/.478. The 36-year-old right-hander doesn't issue many walks, but that shouldn't be a problem for the Twins' hacktastic lineup. This is a guy the Twins should be able to score some runs against. Look for big games from Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. Ramon Ortiz is looking to bounce back from back-to-back rough outings. This isn't a great lineup to try and do it against, but I think he'll pitch well enough to win.

Wednesday: Carlos Silva (2-3, 3.00) vs. C.C. Sabathia (5-1, 4.02)
The Twins have been awful against lefties this year, and Sabathia is one who has always given them trouble. In his career against the Twins, Sabathia is 6-4 with a 3.85 ERA in 17 starts. This year, Sabathia has struck out 58 and allowed just 10 walks over 53 and 2/3 innings, but he's also given up nine homers already -- three times as many as Silva. Speaking of Silva, I wrote last Friday about how impressed I've been with the way he's pitched up to this point, but it's tough to see him dominating a lineup filled with tough left-handed hitters like Sizemore, Hafner and Nixon.

Thursday: Johan Santana (4-3, 3.35) vs. Fausto Carmona (4-1, 3.12)
I was infuriated on April 24 when the Twins last faced Carmona and managed just two runs over 7 and 2/3 innings, but the 23-year-old righthander seems to have used that outing as a springboard for success. He entered that start against the Twins with an 0-1 record and a 6.97 ERA, but in three starts since he's gone 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA. The kid is extremely hot right now, while Santana has been good but not amazing. If those trends continue, this could be a tough game for the Twins to win.

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It's not time to panic by any means. It's mid-May and the Twins are just a game below .500. Things will get better eventually. Sidney Ponson is gone, and guys like Joe Mauer and Rondell White should give the lineup a kick when they eventually return. The key right now is to be competitive and stay afloat during this tough stretch in their schedule. The next few series aren't "must-sweeps," and in fact they're not really even "must-wins." But if the Twins go into Cleveland and Milwaukee and get utterly dominated, it's going to be time to step back and consider whether or not this is a team that can really compete for a postseason spot. If not, Terry Ryan might want to make some calls to gauge interest on guys like Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo and Ramon Ortiz.

Series Preview: Twins/White Sox

We've never written a series preview on this blog before (with the exception of the playoffs), but with the off-day yesterday and a fun series taking place this weekend in Chicago, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at our long-time rivals and what they're bringing to the table this season (and specifically, in this series).

The Twins opened their season by sweeping the Orioles at home. This has probably induced too much excitement among some fans. In my mind, the Twins just took care of business this week. It was a well-played series and I'm happy about it, but I don't think the Orioles are a good team. In fact, when doing my American League predictions a couple weeks ago, I picked them to finish last in the AL East, behind even the Devil Rays. I think all three pitching match-ups in the Baltimore series were advantageous for the Twins, and the Orioles were missing one of their better players in Ramon Hernandez. With all that in mind, I think that playing the White Sox in Chicago this weekend will be a much better test for the Twins.

That's not to say I think the White Sox are a spectacular team. I've ranked them as the fourth-best team in the AL Central, which of course is far from an insult. The Sox still have some guys in their lineup that can hit, but their pitching staff isn't overly impressive. With that said, the middle of the Chicago lineup could cause major trouble for the back-end of the Twins' rotation.

Here's a breakdown of the three pitching match-ups for the series:

Tonight: RH Carlos Silva vs. RH Javier Vazquez
Who knows what to expect from Silva. He was generally terrible in spring training, but he finished on a high note with a good outing. I don't expect big things from Carlos this year, but he could really help change my outlook with a solid outing against this tough White Sox lineup. If he can handle guys like Jim Thome and Paul Konerko without too much damage, I'll be impressed. Vazquez is fairly mediocre, and last year he went 0-4 with a 6.83 ERA in five starts against the Twins. This looks like a winnable game, but of course much will depend on Silva.

Saturday: RH Sidney Ponson vs. LH John Danks
Ponson will make his Twins debut against a player making his major-league debut. Danks was the centerpiece prospect in an offseason trade that sent Brandon McCarthy to the Rangers. It's interesting that Chicago is already slotting Danks in their major-league rotation, as he's just 22 years old and pitched poorly in spring training (5.91 ERA in 21 1/3 IP). The reason is that Gavin Floyd and Charlie Haeger, who were the other two starters competing for the final spot in the Sox' rotation, were considerably worse this spring. To his credit, Danks pitched fairly well in a half-season at Triple-A last year, averaging over a strikeout per inning, and he's a left-hander with good stuff (his curveball is apparently quite nasty) who could cause the Twins' southpaw-heavy lineup some trouble. Ponson has a lot to prove, and unfortunately this is not an ideal opposing lineup or ballpark to try and accomplish that.

Sunday: LH Johan Santana vs. RH Jose Contreras
Contreras was absolutely hammered by the Indians in his first start, giving up eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits in just one inning of work. His ERA after that outing sits at 63.00. While I certainly don't expect him to be that bad going forward, I also don't expect him to pitch anywhere close to his 2005 form. He was quite awful in the second half last year and I would not be surprised if that carried over into this season -- so far, it looks like it as. As for Santana, he has dominated the White Sox throughout his career. Ozzie Guillen has hinted that he may load his lineup with lefties on Sunday after seeing the success some of the Orioles' left-handed hitters had against Santana on Monday. There might be something to that idea. Last year, opposing left-handed hitters posted a .738 OPS against Santana, as opposed to .618 for righties. In addition, Santana struck out just 22 percent of opposing lefties while he struck out 30 percent of opposing righties. Those numbers seem backwards for a left-handed pitcher, but there is little doubt that Santana's changeup is more effective against right-handed hitters. If Guillen follows through on his plan, look for Santana to rely more on his fastball and slider on Sunday.

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As a final reminder, tomorrow afternoon is the Twins fan/blogger get-together at Buffalo Wild Wings in Crystal. The specific address is 5590 West Broadway (here's a map) and game-time is 2:55 pm. Popular bloggers in attendance will include Aaron Gleeman, Howard Sinker, John Bonnes, Will Young, Trevor Born, and SBG. It should be a great afternoon of baseball, beer, socializing and saucy chicken wings. Plus you can meet me, and my much more attractive girlfriend.