Fielder Hardly Seals Division

While many people had already written off the Twins as contenders in 2012 following a 99-loss season, I've been bullish on their (admittedly slim) chances, reasoning that a whole lot can change health-wise from one season to the next and that no club in the AL Central was looking like a world-beater.

The entire division has largely been in a holding pattern all winter. The White Sox, Indians and Royals haven't made impact additions. The Twins have brought in several new players, but all have been designated to fill newly created vacancies. (Willingham for Cuddyer, Marquis for Slowey, Zumaya for Nathan, Doumit for Kubel, etc.)

And those reigning champs? Coming off a 95-win campaign, the Tigers had been conspicuously quiet, seemingly content to maintain the status quo and take another run with largely the same group that succeeded a year ago. Sounded similar to the Twins' approach last offseason.

As it turns out, these Tigers had just been lying in the weeds, waiting to pounce with their royally big move. Yesterday, Detroit signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year deal worth a reported $214 million.

The blockbuster signing comes as a surprise. General manager Dave Dombrowski told reporters less than a week ago that the slugging first baseman was "probably not a good fit," which rung true seeing as how the team already employed one of the best hitters in baseball at Fielder's position. In addition, most were unaware that the Tigers possessed the financial muscle to lock up the game's best under-30 power hitter for a decade.

It's a strong move, and one that bolsters Detroit's roster immensely, ostensibly transforming them from de facto favorites in a weak division to legitimate American League powerhouse. A lineup anchored by Fielder and Miguel Cabrera will strike fear into opposing pitchers, and could approach 900 runs if guys like Alex Avila, Austin Jackson, Delmon Young and Jhonny Peralta are all at the top of their game.

Without question, the Fielder signing weakens Minnesota's chances, which were already sketchy at best. But it would be foolish to write off the rest of the AL Central on the basis of this one move. Here are a few reasons to hold out hope that the Tigers can be toppled this summer:

1) V-Mart is out.

Granted, Detroit just added a guy who drove in 120 runs with a .981 OPS last year. But they also lost a guy who drove in 103 runs with an .850 OPS when Victor Martinez went down with a torn ACL a week ago. Fielder is of course a superior hitter to Martinez, especially in the power department (he out-homered V-Mart 38-12 last year) but it's not like his production is simply sprinkled on top of what Detroit got last year.

2) The rotation is questionable beyond Justin Verlander.

Detroit's starting corps is led by the Ace of Aces, a reigning Cy Young winner and MVP. But outside of Verlander, no pitcher who threw more than 100 innings for the Tigers last year posted an above-average ERA. And does anyone really believe that Doug Fister is going to be able to replicate his 2011 performance? Pitching issues could be magnified by the following:

3) This looks like a slow and defensively awful team.

This lineup will slug, no doubt, but baseball isn't all about hitting and there are few defensive assets to be found on this roster. Delmon is tabbed to man left field, Fielder is a notoriously bad defender at first, and there's been some talk that Cabrera could see time at the hot corner this year. Yeesh. In addition, nobody in the lineup outside of Jackson runs well.

4) Stuff happens.

I can't emphasize this one enough. On paper, the Tigers look like runaway favorites in the AL Central with Fielder aboard. Then again, on paper, the Twins looked the same way to many a year ago. Adam Dunn hadn't posted an OPS under .819 in his career before he logged a .569 mark for Chicago. The Red Sox were the toast of baseball before the they became the laughing stock.

A lot can happen in this game. Things rarely work out the way everyone expects them to. It would be surprising if Detroit failed to outclass the rest of the division this year, but it wouldn't be all that surprising.

If you thought the Twins had a shot two days ago, you shouldn't feel any differently now.

Battle of the Bad

Over the past decade, the battle for AL Central supremacy has often come down to two teams: the Twins and the White Sox. Since 2001, the Twins have won the division six times, and that success has often come at the expense of the Pale Hosers, who finished second behind them in four of those seasons.

Of course, Chicago has also had its notable victories in this classic rivalry, edging the Twins in a tiebreaker for the division title in 2008 and reaching that ultimate achievement -- one that has eluded the hometown nine -- when they captured a World Series Championship in 2005.

This year, the Twins have been so outrageously bad over the first month of the season that some fans have failed to take notice of Chicago's own struggles. While the Twins (9-18) have scuffled in basically every aspect of the game, leading to a league-worst negative-64 run differential, the White Sox (11-19) have had their own share of issues and currently sport the second-worst run-differential in baseball -- albeit a much less appalling negative-32. (They're tied at that mark with -- you guessed it -- the Cubs. Tough times for the Windy City.)

Tonight, the two teams face off for the first time this season at U.S. Cellular Field. The pitching tilt will feature Francisco Liriano, who has been a major contributor to his club's woes with a 1-4 record and 9.13 ERA in five starts, and Edwin Jackson, who himself has regressed significantly after an impressive South Side debut last year.

Something's gotta give, right? There's no way two teams with as much talent as these can continue to play at such an abysmal and embarrassing level.

Which group is ready to step up?

Let the Stretch Run Begin

All teams, even the very good ones, go through ups and downs over the course of a major-league season. The 2010 Twins have been a model for this truism; they came out of the gates fast with a blistering hot start, fell into a lull of mediocrity in the middle months, and now seem to be regaining momentum here after the All-Star break.

The Twins limped into the baseball season's unofficial midpoint, having lost six of their last eight while dropping into third place in the AL Central. They went on to lose their first game after the break at home against the White Sox, but since then they have gone 17-6, keeping pace with the similarly scalding South-Siders and claiming their stake in what is shaping up to be an intense two-team race over the final eight weeks of the season.

Sometimes you can learn more about the state of a team from their losses than their wins. It's important to note that of the Twins' six losses during the aforementioned span, five of them have been decided by two runs or less. Even when they're coming out on the short end, the Twins are playing well and forcing close games. You can't ask for much more.

It's not hard to see why the Twins have been able to right the ship so abruptly. Their schedule has been exceedingly easy over the past few weeks, with a four-game series in Tampa representing their only break in a parade of last and second-to-last place teams. But in the past the Twins have been accused of letting up against lesser opponents (late September series against the Royals come to mind) and the impressive stretch also includes three wins against the White Sox and a hotly contested split against the Rays. They've also been doing it all without the services of their best hitter, and with injuries forcing Drew Butera and Alexi Casilla into the lineup far more than expected.

With the White Sox losing to the Orioles yesterday, the Twins drew to within a half-game of first place. By the time the Sox and Twins square off at U.S. Cellular Field tomorrow night, the two teams could be knotted atop the division.

Sure, the Twins haven't always played up to their level of ability this year and the rough patches have been frustrating. But there's hardly anything better than a bunch of meaningful baseball games in September with playoff-like intensity. That's what we seem headed for.

Should be fun.

Role Reversal

Ozzie Guillen has never been too timid about stating his adoration for the Minnesota Twins and the way they play the game. At seemingly every opportunity, he has publicly complimented the organization, its players and its manager. Oftentimes, when the White Sox would play at the Metrodome and Guillen would rattle off one of his profanity-laced diatribes about his team's uninspired play in a post-game presser, one got the impression that the Chicago skipper secretly desired a gig in the opposing dugout.

It should come as no surprise that Guillen is partial to the "piranha" approach to run-scoring that he helped the Twins make famous a few years ago. During a 16-year playing career, Guillen posted a modest .264/.287/.338 hitting line while managing just 28 home runs in more than 7,000 plate appearances. Even when he was at his best, Guillen's value came from his speed and defense. That style certainly doesn't mesh with the way the White Sox have been constructed for much of the past decade, with an offense built around plodding sluggers like Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Joe Crede and Carlos Quentin. Chicago's offensive formula has been effective -- as illustrated by their World Series Championship in 2005 and subsequent AL Central title in 2008 -- but it has been drastically different from the one employed by the light-hitting Twins.

Today, we're seeing a major shift in philosphy for both teams.

The Sox have spent the past year parting ways with the likes of Thome and Dye while loading the roster with players fitting a different mold. Juan Pierre, who was signed during the offseason to play center field and bat leadoff, is a speedy runner who has consistently demonstrated an ability to hit for a high average but whose power is almost non-existent. Omar Vizquel, Chicago's new starting shortstop, is an all-glove guy who provides little with the bat, particularly at this late stage of his career. Mark Teahen, acquired in a trade with the Royals, hasn't slugged over .410 in any of the past three seasons.

Through moves like these, the White Sox are shedding their label as a straight power-hitting club while leaning more on speed and defense, not to mention an excellent and relatively youthful starting rotation. This is the formula that once epitomized Twins baseball.

Looking at the current Twins' roster, however, we find that they've strayed from that foundation. An outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer possesses plenty of offensive upside but may cover less ground defensively than any other trio in baseball. Glancing up and down the lineup, you're hard-pressed to find three guys capable of swiping 20 or more bases, but you're also hard-pressed to find three (OK, maybe four) guys not capable of bashing 20 or more homers.

Over the years, Chicago has regularly sat near the top of the league in long balls while the Twins have been at the bottom. As recently as 2008, the White Sox ranked first in the American League in home runs while the Twins ranked dead last. This year, there's a pretty realistic chance the Twins will out-homer the Sox. The last time that happened was the last time the Twins won the World Series, back in 1991.

The White Sox will be a team to monitor throughout spring training and throughout the season, as they appear to be the Twins' most formidable competitors for the AL Central crown. For the first time in ages, the Twins may have the more dangerous lineup in this heated rivalry, but conversely the Sox may hold an edge in pitching and defense. It's a strange role reversal, but it should make for another great race in a division that has gained a reputation for improbable outcomes.

A Look Around the AL Central

I feel bad that I only managed three posts this week, so I figured a Saturday post was in order. We're about nine weeks into the season now, so it seems a good time to take a look at the competition surrounding the Twins in the AL Central.

Coming into the year, it appeared that the Central would be a wide-open division, which is why many Twins fans held optimism about their team's chances in spite of its significant flaws. Thus far, the division has lived up to its billing. Detroit leads the Central with a 28-25 record -- the worst record of any first-place team in baseball -- and only six games separate them from last-place Cleveland.

The Twins currently sit in second place, 1.5 games behind the Tigers. While near the top of the division, the Twins also must keep an eye on the rearview mirror, where the three other Central squads are none too far behind.

Let's take an early-June status check on the four other AL Central teams.

Detroit Tigers: 28-25 (First place)

The Tigers lead the division, but not for the reasons that one might have guessed coming into the year. Their offense, which as recently as a year ago was vaunted as one of the best in the league, has been rather pedestrian. They rank sixth in the AL in runs per game and 10th in OPS. Those figures aren't awful but they certainly aren't good enough to carry what many assumed would be a rather atrocious pitching staff.

Things is, Detroit's pitching has not been atrocious. They've actually been rather excellent. Among AL clubs, only Seattle is allowing fewer runs on average than Detroit. The Tigers' pitching staff ranks second in ERA and second in WHIP, after last year ranking third-to-last in both categories. That's a pretty incredible turnaround, particularly considering that the Tigers didn't do all that much to upgrade their pitching corps during the offseason. The improvement has come about thanks to phenomenal work of their one major offseason rotation addition -- Edwin Jackson, who is 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA -- as well as a resurgent season from Justin Verlander and a strong debut from Rick Porcello. Meanwhile, Armando Galarraga, who was essentially the only reliable starter on this staff last year, has a 5.31 ERA. Go figure.

Chicago White Sox: 25-29 (Third place)

The Sox have held their own this year in spite of seeing some regression offensively. Carlos Quentin has been dealing with some injuries, and hasn't been nearly the force he was last year when in the lineup. The Sox have gotten paltry production from all their infield positions other than first base (sound familiar?). They've struggled to find an answer in center field, although Scott Podsednik is getting the job done for now. Certainly, though, this isn't the menacing Sox lineup we've seen in the past.

As expected, the rotation has been a mixed bag. Mark Buehrle has been fantastic with a 6-2 record and 2.91 ERA, and Bartolo Colon has been surprisingly effective, but Gavin Floyd has regressed bigtime (who could've seen that coming) and Jose Contreras' attempt to come back from an Achillies injury has been disastrous.

This team looks mediocre to me. That's actually better than I expected them to be, but I don't see them as a real threat unless the Twins and Tigers both collapse.

Kansas City Royals: 23-31 (Fourth place)

The Royals got off to an excellent start this year, winning 18 of their first 29 games and clutching the division lead into mid-May. This led many pundits to become prematurely excited and gloat about how you can't sleep on the Royals, and about how this upstart group led by otherworldly ace Zack Greinke was taking the league by storm. The whole while, I stood by my position that, while young and promising, the Royals just do not have enough offensive talent to compete for a division title.

Sure enough, since winning on May 7 to improve their record to 18-11, the Royals have gone 5-20 and have sunk like a rock in the AL Central. They're currently riding an eight-game losing streak. The reason for the fall? Offense. The Royals rank second-to-last in runs scored, second-to-last in home runs and fourth-to-last in team OPS. During their current 25-game slump, the Royals have averaged less than three runs per game. With that type of performance, Greinke won't have enough miracles up his sleeve to keep them out of last place. It doesn't help that the Royals also can't find answers for the back end of their rotation -- they quickly pulled the plug on the Horacio Ramirez experiment but Kyle Davies, Sidney Ponson and Luke Hochevar haven't been meaningfully better.

There are a number of things to like about this team, particularly on the pitching side, but no hitter has an OPS over 800 and they've gotten a .209/.311/.316 hitting line from the cleanup spot. It doesn't take much to see why this team is in the dregs, and still sinking.

Cleveland Indians: 24-33 (Fifth place)

While I might have been right about the Royals, it appears I was dead wrong about the Indians, whom I picked as my division favorite back in March. Looking back, I don't even know what I liked so much about this team. I guess I figured they'd be able to cobble together a decent rotation behind Cliff Lee but that hasn't been the case. Aaron Laffey has been decent in limited duty as a starter and Carl Pavano has been OK after a rough start to the season, but the rest of the this team's starters have been abysmal. No pitcher outside of those three who has made a start for this team has an ERA lower than 6.16. Fausto Carmona, who I expected to have a bounce-back year (and drafted on two fantasy teams), has been a mess and was demoted to rookie ball after being pounded by the Twins on Thursday. Kerry Wood has been let-down in the closer role and as a whole the Cleveland bullpen ranks 12th in the AL with a 4.93 ERA. In spite of Mark Shapiro's efforts to upgrade that unit during the offseason, it continues to be a huge liability.

Offensively, the Indians have been decent, so if they can get their pitching on track they have a chance to make a bit of a run, but up to this point they have been very, very bad. If they're out of first place by double-digits in July we'll undoubtedly be hearing a lot of Cliff Lee rumors.