Patience Paving the Way

One of the many topics that John Bonnes and Seth Stohs broached on Sunday night's edition of the always-entertaining MN Gamenight podcast was the increased patience that the Twins lineup has shown this season. The discussion came in the wake of a weekend series against the Mariners in which Twins hitters drew 21 walks in three games. Hearing this talked about piqued my interest, as I too have noticed an increase in quality at-bats from Twins hitters in this young season. Let's dig into the topic...

Coming out of the weekend, the Twins rank seventh out of 14 American League teams with 109 walks -- about exactly average*. That might not seem like everything special, but given that the Twins perennially rank anywhere between below-average and terrible in walks taken, it's noteworthy. That ranking also understates the team's patience to some degree since Joe Mauer has only been playing for about a week.

* Posnanski-style side note: the team directly in front of the Twins in walks? The Royals, with 116. Who would've thought??

It is a well-known fact that the Twins organization has not generally been known for preaching a patient approach to its hitters; one of the most annoying contradictions in the Twins' philosophy has been the way they emphasize avoiding walks to their pitchers while seemingly dismissing the value of hitters taking walks. Yet, one gets the sense that we might be seeing some changes in this deep-seeded philosophy.

The Twins current lineup features a number of patient hitters. Mauer is of course one of the league's best in this regard; he's got a 4-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in this young season. Denard Span (14/13 K/BB) has also quickly developed a reputation as being an extremely disciplined hitter, while Justin Morneau (19/13) and Michael Cuddyer (22/15) are power guys who will draw walks at a pretty steady pace as well. Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert haven't hit much thus far, but both bring a professional approach to the plate, work the count, and keep their strikeout-to-walk ratios pretty close to even. Brian Buscher and Mike Redmond have both walked almost as much as they've struck out, and guys like Brendan Harris and Jason Kubel -- who don't walk a ton -- have shown a propensity to take some pitches and work deep into counts. Aside from Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young, who remain the very definitions of free swingers (and who also both came over from other organizations in the recent past), this lineup generally features a good deal of plate discipline. Are we seeing a shift?

Back in the late 90s and early 2000s, the Twins brought up a group of talented, home-raised young players who mostly lacked patience at the plate. Players such as Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Luis Rivas, A.J. Pierzynski and Cristian Guzman (not homegrown) enjoyed varying levels of offensive success in the majors, but none of them would be mistaken for a particularly patient hitter. The new generation of homegrown talent seems much different in this regard, and a quick glance at the organization's current farm system suggests that we're seeing a trend rather than a mirage.

Running down my Top Ten Twins Prospects list, we find a number of players whose offensive strengths include plate discipline. Ben Revere, who hit for a huge average but didn't walk much last year, has drawn 12 walks while striking out only seven times through his first 29 games, leading to a .377 on-base percentage. Danny Valencia, who struck out more than three times for every walk after moving up to New Britain for the second half of last season, has shown tremendously improved discipline with the Rock Cats this year, having drawn 14 walks while striking out 17 times in 21 games. Aaron Hicks is in extended spring training right now, but last year he broke onto the scene in rookie ball with an impressive 32-to-28 K/BB ratio and .409 OBP in 45 games. Chris Parmelee, a 2006 first-round pick who didn't break into my Top Ten but is perhaps the organization's best pure power-hitting prospect, has been a walk machine over the course of his career. Sure, you've still got the raw, undisciplined hackers like Wilson Ramos and Angel Morales dotting the organization's list of upper-echelon prospects, but in general one gets the sense that the Twins are seeking more disciplined hitters and putting more of an organizational emphasis on teaching patience. That's a very good sign.

One could argue that some members of the sabermetric community overrate the value of the walk, and I might be inclined to agree. But there's no denying that having hitters in your lineup who can work counts, fluster pitchers and put themselves on base even when their line drives aren't falling in has wide-ranging benefits. The Twins, as you'll see below, have been getting better in this department every year since 2005:

Twins Team Walks
2005: 485
2006: 490
2007: 512
2008: 529

And this year, they're currently on pace to walk 551 times (a conservative projection given that the effect of Mauer -- who walked 83 times last season -- is understated in the current sample). No Twins team has walked more than 550 times since 2000. This is progress, and I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest it's no coincidence, and not going away any time soon.

Weekend Wrap-Up

Yesterday the Twins had an opportunity for a four-game sweep of the Tigers on the road that would have been a wonderful way to enter the All-Star break. Of course, given that beforehand the Twins probably would have been happy to come away from this tough seven-game road trip with four wins, winning three out of four after being swept in Boston is certainly a good thing to go into the break with.

With that, I think several observations should be kept in mind:

* While the Twins offense sputtered against Justin Verlander yesterday, they also managed to beat around two lefties they have historically struggled against in Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson, while also winning against the up-and-coming Armando Galarraga. Key players had outstanding series -- most notably Justin Morneau. Morneau went 8-for-15 with a home run, three doubles, four runs scored and five walks. It was both impressive and enjoyable to see Morneau have much better at-bats against the types of lefties he has struggled against in the past.

* In total, the Twins scored 18 runs over the four-game series and certainly were in all the games. Its tempting to look at the fact that all the wins were close ones (7-6, 6-5, 3-2) and think that could show some luck, but the ways the games were won should keep fans excited. For instance, in Friday's win, the Twins hitters showed much better patience, taking a total of seven walks between Morneau, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Nick Punto, and Denard Span. If the Twins hitters are showing better patience, it bodes much better for sustainability than a high average in situational hitting. Of course, when it comes to patience, no one on the Twins has been in the same vicinity as Mauer, as he drew four walks over the series to give him a total of 53 and an on-base percentage of .418 (Isolated Discipline of 0.96 as well). That puts him on pace for an amazing 95 walks and gives him the second best OBP in the AL. Pretty impressive, but then again, he's an All-Star for a reason. (Unlike other All-Star catchers who happen to be "captains.")

* The Twins also did see some good pitching from young guys like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Blackburn took the loss yesterday, but he didn't pitch poorly by any means. Seventy out of his 108 pitches were strikes and he got through seven innings having given up only five hits and two walks while striking out four. Blackburn's stats don't jump out at you too much, but the 3.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are good, while the 64/18 K/BB ratio is even better.

* Glen Perkins also had a good start, even as his peripherals have projected him to start struggling soon. Perkins wasn't amazing in Friday's win, but he did have a Quality Start, going 6 2/3 innings, giving up six hits and two runs with two walks and two strikeouts. The 95 hits he's given up in 78 1/3 innings isn't particular good, and neither is the 1.46 WHIP, .301 BAA, or the lack of strikeouts. However, he has been a solid starter this year and if he can be good for Quality Starts, there is no reason to get down on him too much yet.

* If there is one not-so-positive thing to take from this weekend, it's Carlos Gomez's offense. It only seems to haven gotten significantly worse. He went 1-for-18 with an RBI and 5 strikeouts in the series and did not draw a single walk. His line is now down to .253/.287/.351. A 638 OPS is bad enough, but a .287 OBP for a lead-off hitter is just hideously awful. Perhaps the All-Star break will do him some good, but it would be better if the break did some good for Gardenhire's decision making so he can finally do everyone a favor and remove Gomez from the leadoff spot. Of course, in an effort not to be too much a downer, I am certainly not forgetting any of the good plays Gomez has made in center recently; but, in fairness, even in that area Gomez has not been all good, all the time. It's time to make the move everyone else has been calling for and move Span or even Alexi Casilla to the lead-off spot.

* Lastly, in a bit of separate news, Morneau has filled out the roster for Home Run Derby participants. While many fans may react negatively to this, since there is an idea that somehow the Derby is an awful thing that has ruined many a baseball player, I just do not accept this premise. Players may alter their swings for it, but they just as often do that to put on shows during batting practice. That is all the competition really is: just a glorified batting practice session. Players like Miguel Tejada and Bobby Abreu didn't start going downhill because of the silly Derby. Tejada was older then most believed and was never a truly elite home run hitter to begin with and Abreu at the time had already shown signs of slowing down. So, in brief, don't fear Twins fans; Morneau will be fine. Instead of worrying, enjoy the show and hopefully he makes it to the second round.

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If you're bored, head over to the White Sox blog Life in the Cell, where Nick Nelson has written a guest post giving Sox fans a mid-season report on the Twins.

Patience Pays Off

With the exception of Saturday night's abomination of a game, the Twins have generally scored runs and play good, competitive baseball over the past two series. In watching the games, there's one obvious trend that I've been noticing -- the hitters are taking significantly better at-bats. This has resulted in a marked increase in walks. Twins hitters drew seven walks in yesterday's win over the Tigers, nine on Friday night, seven on Thursday, five on Tuesday and seven on Monday. The walks are putting more runners on base and allowing the offense to rely less on unsustainable numbers with runners in scoring position to score runs. As a result, the Twins scored at least six runs in all five of the aforementioned games.

Throughout the month of April, this offense was frustrating to watch largely because they consistently helped out opposing pitchers with poor at-bats and easy outs. We're seeing less and less of that now. Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, Mike Lamb and Delmon Young have all visibly improved their approaches at the plate. Joe Mauer continues to display one of the most selective eyes in the league. Justin Morneau is having good at-bats and drawing walks at a solid clip. Suddenly, this offense isn't as ridiculously impatient as it was early in the year, and as a result they have climbed out from last place in the AL in the walks category, having surpassed the Royals and Angels, and they're right on the heels of the Mariners. After posting just a .305 on-base percentage an April, Twins hitters are reaching base at a .339 clip in May.

You know what they say... good things come to those who wait.

The Greek Gods of Walks?

Yesterday's game brought to a close one heck of an exciting sweep over the Chicago White Sox. In the series, the Twins outscored the Sox 26-12 and also managed to pull themselves two games over .500. Yesterday's win included many good subplots for discussion. The seven runs were impressive. The bullpen was amazing again, picking up after a terrible three-inning outing from Scott Baker. Jason Miller, Matt Guerrier, Pat Neshek, and Joe Nathan combined to allow no hits in six innings while striking out three and walking two. However, one thing stood out above all others: the patience of the Twins hitters.

There are many things that the Twins offense is known for and one of them is perhaps the most overdone catch phrase heard in sports in years (PIRANHA POWER!). But they don't have much of a reputation for patience. When it comes to walking, they aren't often mistaken for the Boston Red Sox or the Oakland Athletics. In fact, out of the Twins hitters, only Joe Mauer is really amongst the elite in terms of patience.

Thus, it was very interesting for this team to score seven runs on only seven hits along with eight walks. Walks were the theme of the game, which was eventually won by a bases-loaded walk by Torii Hunter in the bottom of the ninth that has roundly been attributed to David Aardsma not having enough time to warm-up. Hunter was clearly surprised with the walk, telling reporters, "I didn't know what to do. It was weird, man. That was something totally different. But I like it. We won."

However, Hunter was just the part of team effort in patience. Nick Punto was the standout, walking three times in the game to give him a team-leading 26 on the season. Punto is only hitting .237, but he still holds a fairly decent .337 on-base percentage, giving him a very impressive 0.100 isolated discipline. Interestingly, Punto's average has suffered because of his terrible hitting at home. Punto is hitting .320/.407/.400 on the road and only .177/.269/.219 at home. This is quite unusual, as from 2004-2006, Punto hit .293/.350/.415 at the Dome and only .241/.313/.296 on the road. While his overall offensive performance has been putrid over the past two months, Punto continues to take solid at-bats and his 30/26 strikeout-to-walk ratio is very good for him and its likely that those extreme splits will even out in due time.

Other than Punto and Hunter's walks, Jason Bartlett, Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Tyner all took walks, with Tyner's coming in the ninth and helping to set up Hunter's game-winning walk. The walks clearly haunted the White Sox, as five of them came around to score. Cuddyer is another important standout. He walked only 5 times in April but has drawn 16 in May. Cuddyer's solid month has raised his hitting line to a very good .302/.380/.484 with 37 RBI.

The team itself has been pretty good overall in terms of patience, as they came into the game with a .342 OBP to go with a team .276 average. That's a 0.66 isolated discipline, up slightly from the 0.60 they finished with last year. Overall, the Twins' .342 OBP ranks 7th in the majors while their 178 walks now rank them 14th. For a team that prides itself on being scrappy, the progress over the last month towards more patience, seen with hitters like Punto and Cuddyer, is a positive one for the Twins and certainly has contributed to their recent streak of series wins.

When an offense can wear down a pitcher, the way great offenses like Boston's do, and force them out of a game early, that team tends to win a lot. They can even drive an opposing manager so crazy that he relents to proclaiming, "I'm going to get fired? Good. Is this team going to get better having me out of there? I'd be too happy with it."

This has been the recent trend for the Twins, especially in the just-completed series against Chicago, which was displayed prominently in the win yesterday. Hopefully, when the Twins face the Oakland A's this weekend, they can mirror Billy Beane's "Moneyball" focus on patience while walking away with the series.