Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Bullpen Dreams

One of the most annoying parts of the offseason is that we, as fans, are often given so little to work with that we are forced to dissect and interpret quotes that -- in their original context -- might bear very little meaning.

When asked about the state of the Twins' bullpen yesterday, Bill Smith gave a rather unsettling answer:
"Sometimes your best bet, rather than go out and get a third baseman, your best bet is to bring up Valencia and give him a chance," Smith said. "And we always like to do that. We love to bring players out of our system if they can help us win."

He added, "Perkins and Neshek and Nathan are three guys that would be great wild cards for us, because Perkins and Neshek pitched all season in Triple-A, or most of the season in Triple-A, and Nathan not at all."

"So if we can get Nathan back, competitive, to anywhere close to where he was, if we can get Neshek back to where he was several years ago -- and this would be the second year after Tommy John surgery. And Perkins threw the ball well in September, and had some stints of throwing the ball very well in Rochester."
My hope is that this is one of those offhand remarks that doesn't accurately reflect the mindset of the front office. Because if Smith and Co. are remotely comfortable with the bullpen pieces they currently have in place, they're out of their minds.

I don't mean to draw any unflattering Tim Brewster comparisons, but in the above quote Smith sounds like a used car salesman. Who does he think he's fooling? Pat Neshek and Glen Perkins spent most of 2010 in Triple-A because they were both completely ineffective and neither has proven to be fully recovered from their latest injuries. A "competitive" Joe Nathan is not exactly the jolt needed for a bullpen containing nothing but question marks past Matt Capps and Jose Mijares. The unit, as it currently stands, is exceedingly thin even if Nathan returns at full strength. And as Neshek's 2010 campaign proved, that first year back from Tommy John surgery can bring its share of tribulations.

There's no Danny Valencia caliber player ready to step into the Twins' bullpen and make us all forget about Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier. It's possible that Anthony Slama -- a strikeout machine with questionable control -- could make a positive impact, but the organization has never seemed all that high on him and it's telling that Smith would rather mention Perkins, who has compiled a 5.71 ERA between the majors and minors over the past two seasons. Beyond Slama, the Twins have zero relief prospects in the organization with the kind of numbers that would indicate they're ready to step in and handle late-inning duties for the big-league club.

I'm sure Smith must realize the gravity of the team's bullpen situation, so most likely I'm just over-analyzing a harmless early December quote. Still, for the sake of my blood pressure Bill, please refrain from making similar comments in the future.

28 comments:

USAFChief said...

This is why I haven't condemned the Capps trade as much as many others have. Yeah, hefty price and all, but let's give Smith some credit for looking at 2011 a bit when he made a trade that also helped the 2010 team. Capps now represents one of exactly two current Twins relievers who you can be reasonably confident about going into 2011. And it's only as many as two if you're willing to include Mijares as a 'pretty sure thing.'

Troy said...

If Billy Bullock can cut walks down, then he's one player that really stands out as far as being able to contribute in 2011. Isn't he a power arm as well?

Anonymous said...

What do you think about the rumors of the twins signing Koji Uehara? If the price is right this seems like it could be a good move from a bullpen perspective and from the perspective of helping Nishioka feel comfortable and adapt to the city/country/mlb.

cy1time said...

The first paragraph sums it up, we all want to hear something, so a quote like this gets repeated. I think that Smith was just saying that there are three guys on our roster that have been able to get big league hitters out. Not sure about Perkins, but I think that either Neshek or Nathan will be a plus arm for the bullpen this year. And if we can get good years from two of three, the bullpen may shape up to be OK.

On the Uehara, I find it odd that people assume that because he and Nishioka are both from Japan, that it would easy Nishioka into MLB. There's no way to know that they'd even get along. I certainly hope that isn't the reason that they'd look at Uehara. I do like Uehara and think he'd be a good addition, maybe a little expensive, but not as some kind of mentor for Nishioka.

Anonymous said...

Is it possible for Kyle Gibson to come up and go into the bullpen to get some innings? Without Rauch, Crain, and Guerrier we need someone with good control. Gibson flew through the minors and he would have a chance to show his stuff in the big leagues.

Matt said...

It seems like there's a few arms out there on the market, and more could be made available.
Vague quotes from GM's of any sport are pretty much par for the course these days. No need to panic just yet...

Anonymous said...

"Yeah, hefty price and all, but let's give Smith some credit for looking at 2011 a bit when he made a trade that also helped the 2010 team." This would be true if his contract were a bargain this season and its not. For 8 mil for just about any reliever is too much and the twins could have signed whichever free agent reliever they wanted for that money. 8 million for capps is a terrible allocation of resources. I wish the twins would spend a portion of what they are willing to pay for saves for solid middle infielders.

Bullock, guttierez, burnet are all young guys in the high minors that have upside. Burnet's the only one thats likely to pitch for the twins next year but you never know.

Polish Sausage said...

Is it just me or does anyone else not give a s*&% about the bullpen? We've got a few back-end arms already (praise the good lord that Capps aint the closer any more). Guerrier pitched a lot but man was he awful at times. Crain was good most of the year - best in the league! but awful for the first couple months (i mean really, really, really awful, 5 runs on 4 pitches to 4 batters vs Detroit) and his biggest pitch of the year was a meaty hanger to big Tex. And he was supposedly one of the best in the league. The Twins are already spending $20 mil on 2 bullpen guys. For them to say bullpen is their biggest focus is both a misuse of precious funds and ignorant of bigger issues, namely, STARTING PITCHING.

Anonymous said...

This quote may be an early precursor to trying to justify a home-grown (i.e. inadequate) bullpen because of contract mistakes over the past few years. Paulie K just signed to go with Dunn, the Tigers added V-Mart. Our competition just got quite a bit tougher next season...and they actually have decent pitching. Smith's response will probably be to ink Thome to a 2-year, $10 million deal.

Anonymous said...

Screw the pitching...go out and get Beltre and move Danny V to 2nd base. Try to win games with scores like 11-9 and 10-7. I'd be ok with that.

jack torse said...

What do you want Bill Smith to say? He said what he has to. All the things you mention about the in house options are true and Smith and the Twins know it too. One good thing is that a bullpen can be "patched" up pretty fast and as Gleeman pointed out last night over at seth's is that there's always suprises that come out of the bullpen.

Dave said...

Beltre is coming down to earth big time. He has two of the best contract years in my memory, and I can't see him doing nearly as well anywhere else. Plus he will want multiple years for big bucks. If we want a good infield, lets, oh, I don't know, keep Hardy with Nishi and keep Valencia at third?

I'm pissed that Frasor accepted arb. I really wanted the Blue Jay back end, Frasor and Downs. Downs is still out there though...

USAFChief said...

Bullock, guttierez, burnet are all young guys in the high minors that have upside. Burnet's the only one thats likely to pitch for the twins next year but you never know.

So...we go with a 2 man bullpen--Mijares and Burnett--till 2012?

Nice plan.

Anonymous said...

"So...we go with a 2 man bullpen--Mijares and Burnett--till 2012?
Nice plan."

I have no idea how you could read what i wrote and take that away. This is possibly a sub ed bast display of ability to properly comprehend a relatively simple argument.

Say I said something like "ice cream is an underrated desert"

What you said is equivelent to saying "so you think all we should eat is ice cream then. What about all the missing essential amino acids? Everyone is going to die of malnutrition. Great plan."

You state it as if you've made some great point but somehow you've misunderstood what ive said while feeling the need to misrepresent my claim in such a radical way that youre barely able to stay on topic.

USAFChief said...

I have no idea how you could read what i wrote and take that away.

And I have no idea what else you might have meant. In a discussion of the Twins 2011 bullpen, you bring up Bullock, Guttierez, and Burnett.

Exactly what were you talking about then? Ice cream?

Polish Sausage said...

Well if this proposed hardy trade goes through our 2013 bullpen may be deeper.

I will withhold judgement on this trade until it becomes official. but if what there saying is true...my god.

Anonymous said...

Nick, you are completely overvaluing the value of the bullpen. the marginal difference between slama and capps or any of the other bullpen arms isn't enought to justify the money that's being spent. compare the WARs for team SSs to the ENTIRE bullpen and you'll see that Hardy and Co were more valueable in 2010 (3.6) WAR than the entire bullpen (3.0). Adjusted for WAR per dollar, the decision isn't even close. Piecing together a bullpen is a lot easier than finding a solid starting SS - not to mention the prices which are drastically inflated for the bullpen. trusting a Japanese SS with worse #s there than Kaz Matsui to start everyday is nuts in my opinion. at 2b that's a different story.

Nick said...

I would have to agree that it makes more sense to piece together a bullpen and save money for other players (Pavano and Thome). With the Hardy trade and Rule V acquisition, the Twins have a bunch of guys to try out. Nathan, Neshek, Hoey, Diamond, Waldrop, Slama, Waldrop, Delaney, Burnett, Hacker, Mijares and even Duensing and Gibson could see time in the BP. We would only need 5 of them to produce. Hopefully one of them can be dominant.

Polish Sausage said...

Well now that it's official this is easily Billy's worst trade. It's worse than the Santana deal because by no means did they have to trade JJ. It's worse than the Garza deal because there isn't a high-upside guy like Delmon in there. Basically they traded one of the best shortstops in the AL for 2 minor league relievers. If MLB relievers are dime a dozen (and they are), I don't even know what to call a minor league reliever (penny a dozen?). The Twins hate minor league relievers, anyway, since we have about 5 or 6 that have had extended minor league success but can't break onto the MLB club. The club would much rather overpay for MLB relievers with nice ERAs or, even better, save totals.

Or they'd rather pay money to be able to pay more money for a complete unknown Japanese SS, only to switch him to 2B, Casila's natural position, and move Casila (a guy Gardy hates even more than he must have hated Hardy) to SS, where his occassional fielding brain farts will be magnified.

All this coming from a club who has lost 12 straight playoff games, whose biggest needs are front end starting pitching and RH bats, and whose competition in the holy grail that is the Central is going to be a whole lot tougher.

This is a terrible deal, and it speaks to how the organization is content to merely contend for division titles and maximize profits and not at all focused on anything greater. Keep buying tickets to that fabulous fan-funded ballpark, though. You're playing right into the organization's hand. Just understand that this organization, with Gardy and Smith and Pohlads running the ship, DOES NOT CARE ABOUT WINNING A WORLD SERIES. Once you accept this, it's easier to move on, even if it means realizing the Twins lied to us when they said they needed a taxpayer funded stadium to compete on the field with the big boys. They needed a taxpayer funded stadium to make more money, period.

Nobody wins a Series by accident; as an organization you have to actually commit to doing it (this goes beyond just saying you want to do it). I understand, a franchise is a business, but it's also a baseball team in a professional league, and it makes money from folks that pay to go watch them. Every now and then a team needs to reward its fanbase with a serious run at a Series, even if it means losing a few bucks that one particular year. Yeah you can say this decade has been mostly successful, but I was there in the mid 90s too. From 92-2010 we've one one postseason series! Where's the reward for paying for season tickets all those years? Where's the reward for approving and funding a new stadium/cash cow?

No organization serious about winning in the playoffs trades one of the best players in the league at a premium position for two minor league relief pitchers. It's beyond pathetic. Time for Twins fans to wake up and stop funding this dishonest, profit-driven lunacy.

Polish Sausage said...

Well now that it's official this is easily Billy's worst trade. It's worse than the Santana deal because by no means did they have to trade JJ. It's worse than the Garza deal because there isn't a high-upside guy like Delmon in there. Basically they traded one of the best shortstops in the AL for 2 minor league relievers. If MLB relievers are dime a dozen (and they are), I don't even know what to call a minor league reliever (penny a dozen?). The Twins hate minor league relievers, anyway, since we have about 5 or 6 that have had extended minor league success but can't break onto the MLB club. The club would much rather overpay for MLB relievers with nice ERAs or, even better, save totals.

Or they'd rather pay money to be able to pay more money for a complete unknown Japanese SS, only to switch him to 2B, Casila's natural position, and move Casila (a guy Gardy hates even more than he must have hated Hardy) to SS, where his occassional fielding brain farts will be magnified.

All this coming from a club who has lost 12 straight playoff games, whose biggest needs are front end starting pitching and RH bats, and whose competition in the holy grail that is the Central is going to be a whole lot tougher.

This is a terrible deal, and it speaks to how the organization is content to merely contend for division titles and maximize profits and not at all focused on anything greater. Keep buying tickets to that fabulous fan-funded ballpark, though. You're playing right into the organization's hand. Just understand that this organization, with Gardy and Smith and Pohlads running the ship, DOES NOT CARE ABOUT WINNING A WORLD SERIES. Once you accept this, it's easier to move on, even if it means realizing the Twins lied to us when they said they needed a taxpayer funded stadium to compete on the field with the big boys. They needed a taxpayer funded stadium to make more money, period.

Nobody wins a Series by accident; as an organization you have to actually commit to doing it (this goes beyond just saying you want to do it). I understand, a franchise is a business, but it's also a baseball team in a professional league, and it makes money from folks that pay to go watch them. Every now and then a team needs to reward its fanbase with a serious run at a Series, even if it means losing a few bucks that one particular year. Yeah you can say this decade has been mostly successful, but I was there in the mid 90s too. From 92-2010 we've one one postseason series! Where's the reward for paying for season tickets all those years? Where's the reward for approving and funding a new stadium/cash cow?

No organization serious about winning in the playoffs trades one of the best players in the league at a premium position for two minor league relief pitchers. It's beyond pathetic. Time for Twins fans to wake up and stop funding this dishonest, profit-driven lunacy.

Polish Sausage said...

Well now that it's official this is easily Billy's worst trade. It's worse than the Santana deal because by no means did they have to trade JJ. It's worse than the Garza deal because there isn't a high-upside guy like Delmon in there. Basically they traded one of the best shortstops in the AL for 2 minor league relievers. If MLB relievers are dime a dozen (and they are), I don't even know what to call a minor league reliever (penny a dozen?). The Twins hate minor league relievers, anyway, since we have about 5 or 6 that have had extended minor league success but can't break onto the MLB club. The club would much rather overpay for MLB relievers with nice ERAs or, even better, save totals.

Or they'd rather pay money to be able to pay more money for a complete unknown Japanese SS, only to switch him to 2B, Casila's natural position, and move Casila (a guy Gardy hates even more than he must have hated Hardy) to SS, where his occassional fielding brain farts will be magnified.

All this coming from a club who has lost 12 straight playoff games, whose biggest needs are front end starting pitching and RH bats, and whose competition in the holy grail that is the Central is going to be a whole lot tougher.

This is a terrible deal, and it speaks to how the organization is content to merely contend for division titles and maximize profits and not at all focused on anything greater. Keep buying tickets to that fabulous fan-funded ballpark, though. You're playing right into the organization's hand. Just understand that this organization, with Gardy and Smith and Pohlads running the ship, DOES NOT CARE ABOUT WINNING A WORLD SERIES. Once you accept this, it's easier to move on, even if it means realizing the Twins lied to us when they said they needed a taxpayer funded stadium to compete on the field with the big boys. They needed a taxpayer funded stadium to make more money, period.

Nobody wins a Series by accident; as an organization you have to actually commit to doing it (this goes beyond just saying you want to do it). I understand, a franchise is a business, but it's also a baseball team in a professional league, and it makes money from folks that pay to go watch them. Every now and then a team needs to reward its fanbase with a serious run at a Series, even if it means losing a few bucks that one particular year. Yeah you can say this decade has been mostly successful, but I was there in the mid 90s too. From 92-2010 we've one one postseason series! Where's the reward for paying for season tickets all those years? Where's the reward for approving and funding a new stadium/cash cow?

No organization serious about winning in the playoffs trades one of the best players in the league at a premium position for two minor league relief pitchers. It's beyond pathetic. Time for Twins fans to wake up and stop funding this dishonest, profit-driven lunacy.

Dave said...

Well, to "stop funding this lunacy", that is an overstated coment based on frustration about an inept deal. That being said, the deal was certainly inept, and I threw up in my mouth a little when I read it.

Matt said...

Wow, it took three posts of that rant to make your point?

I agree they got little in return. I wonder if this was more about ridding themselves of Harris than it was getting Hardy's contract off the books???

If Nishi plays really well, the Twins won't look so bad here. But Casilla your full time SS? That one's confusing.

Maybe the Twins bought into the "injury prone" farse and expected Hardy to miss 60 games again. I guess we'll never know.

I was never a big fan of Hardy, but in a market almost devoid of shortstops, couldn't a better deal have been struck?

Polish Sausage said...

Sory on the triple post. Maybe Nick can help. And I could have (should have) summarized in 1 sentence: As an organization the Twins are not committed to or capable of winning in the postseason.

Anonymous said...

"And I have no idea what else you might have meant" Lets see if we can decipher some meaning.

I said "Bullock, guttierez, burnet are all young guys in the high minors that have upside. Burnet's the only one thats likely to pitch for the twins next year but you never know."

When i said the players i listed were young i was talking about their chronological age. When i said they were in the high minors i meant that these players all played for twins affiliates at the AA or AAA level last year. When i said they had upside i meant that i feel these players could improve and eventually become above average players. Youll notice i didnt preface my argument by saying this is my plan for the twins 2011 bullpen. Also, the title of this blog entry was not "here's what I would do with the twins bullpen 2011".

My comment was intended to be directed at nicks claim that the twins have no danny valencias to fill into the bullpen. I was giving examples of talented relievers, close to major league ready that are under the radar and could step in and do a good job quickly.

Anonymous said...

I think bill smiths danny valencia analogy is stupid. First danny valencia was certainly not an elite prospect that the twins shouldve felt confident could play right away. Second, they organization didnt entrust to position to him until about 12 people were hurt. Hughes and plouffe were both called up before him, and punto, tolbert, morneau all had to get hurt before theyd play him daily. Bill smith is a fool. Probably to be expected from the worst GM in baseball.

Matt said...

They also sent $500,000 over to Baltimore.

I just don't get it.

A single A pitcher, and a AAA pitcher who stunk it up in the majors when he did get a chance.

Clearly, the Twins were taken in by the "power arm" thing.

Wow, did they get ripped off or what?

But, at least Harris is gone.

Anonymous said...

The twins are a trend team. This winters trend was speed and power arms, thats why we lost last year. I remember when we were all about power drafting parmalee, danny rams, henry sanchez. If some team has a great year with risp, the twins will be compelled to add some high risp players. Its stupid. 6-7 mil for hardy bad, 3yr/33 for pav good? This is turning into a disaster.