American League Preview

We usually don't post our annual preseason preview for each league on this blog until late March, but this year we decided to do them a little early, in large part because I am probably going to be a bit busier in mid-to-late March. Today I'll predict the placement of each team in the three American League divisions, complete with my reasoning, and tomorrow we'll have a National League preview brought to you by none other than the reclusive Nick Mosvick (a noted slacker).

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels won this division last year with relative ease, and should do so again this year. They added Torii Hunter via free agency and traded for Jon Garland to augment their rotation, with John Lackey, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Kelvim Escobar and Jered Weaver all returning. Vladimir Guerrero and Garrett Anderson are getting older, but have remained productive. Meanwhile, talented young hitters like Reggie Willits, Howie Kendrick and Brandon Wood will be given an opportunity to establish themselves. The bullpen, led by closer Francisco Rodriguez and set-up man Scot Shields, should be effective.

2. Seattle Mariners
Many people felt that the Mariners got lucky last year, as their 88-64 record was a considerable step up from their Pythagorean record of 79-83. I'm not so sure. This team hit well, but lost a number of blowout games because of an inconsistent and flawed pitching staff. For this reason, the offseason additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva should be huge. In Bedard and Felix Hernandez, the Mariners have a pair of starters who could both compete for the Cy Young. The bullpen -- highlighted by J.J. Putz, Ryan Rowland-Smith and youngster Brandon Morrow -- should be a strength.

I'm just not sure that Seattle will get enough offense to keep up with the Angels. Gone is the team's top young hitter, Adam Jones, along with Jose Guillen. First baseman Richie Sexson and second baseman Jose Lopez need to rebound from hugely disappointing 2007 campaigns. Ichiro has shown no signs of slowing down, but at age 34, he could any time now.

3. Oakland Athletics
The A's are clearly in a re-tooling phase, having traded ace Dan Haren and slugger Nick Swisher during the offseason. Starter Joe Blanton and closer Huston Street could be the next to leave. I can't imagine that the A's will stick with the Mariners and Angels for too long, but they do have young talent and could surprise. Carlos Gonzalez, the prize return in the Haren trade, should make in impact in the outfield. The pitching staff should be solid even without Haren, and a few pitchers acruiqed in that trade may also contribute.

4. Texas Rangers
The Rangers lost 87 games and finished last in the West in 2007, and there's little reason to believe they'll improve much this year. Josh Hamilton joins the outfield, but outside of him the team made no significant additions offensively. Meanwhile, the pitching staff remains very much a work in progress, with inexperienced hurlers such as Kason Gabbard, Robinson Tejeda and Brandon McCarthy still learning their way through the big leagues.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians
I've heard a number of people claim that the Indians' success in 2007 was something of a fluke. I'm not buying it. This team should continue to be strong here in '08. Fausto Carmona is for real, with his nasty hard sinking stuff, and C.C. Sabathia will be motivated to succeed in his final year before free agency. Meanwhile, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd are coming off solid campaigns in '07, and prospect Adam Miller could broach the rotation at some point during the season. The bullpen should again be a strength, with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez returning and Masahide Kobayashi coming over from Japan.

Offensively, the Indians could improve. Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, arguably the team's top two hitter, both played below their potential last season and could both be MVP candidates this year.

2. Detroit Tigers
After some key offseason acquisitions, the Tigers might be the best offensive team in the league. The addition of Miguel Cabrera at third base will immensely improve that position, and Edgar Renteria should provide a solid presence at shortstop with Carlos Guillen shifting over to first. Add in Placido Polanco at second, and this is a stellar infield. The outfield allignment is nothing to scoff at either, with Curtis Granderson (.913 OPS last year) manning center field alongside Magglio Ordonez (MVP runner-up) in right. Gary Sheffield will contribute as well.

There are definitely some concerns on this pitching staff beyond Justin Verlander though. It seems the enigmatic Jeremy Bonderman may never pitch up to his ability. Kenny Rogers is 43. Dontrelle Willis struggled last year and is moving into a tougher league. The bullpen features even more questions, with Joel Zumaya likely out for at least half the season. Closer Todd Jones is far from dominant despite his high save totals.

The biggest problem for this team might be the fact that they traded a lot of good prospects during the offseason, and lack much depth. A few injuries to this veteran team could cripple their chances of taking the division. If the pitching staff holds up, though, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

3. Minnesota Twins
It was a busy offseason for the Twins. The losses of Johan Santana and Silva leave them with a rather young and inexperienced rotation, one which could struggle if Francisco Liriano isn't able to come back strong while Scott Baker and Boof Bonser step up. The offense is likely to improve but won't likely be better than average. Combine that with what will probably be an average pitching staff, and you've got a fairly mediocre team overall. The Twins can compete if a number of things go right, but realistically this is probably about a .500 team.

4. Chicago White Sox
After adding Swisher, Orlando Cabrera and Cuban Alexei Ramirez, the Sox are a good bet to improve an offense that ranked last in the American League last season. Still, they've got a long ways to go before their offense can actually be considered "good," and none of the players acquired are likely to turn things around dramatically. The pitching staff lacks a true ace, and the bullpen -- which ranked 12th in the AL with a 5.47 ERA last year -- is not likely to improve significantly. The Sox will probably be better than last year, but they're not good enough to compete in this division.

5. Kansas City Royals
This team might be a candidate to surprise, but I don't think they have quite enough talent to escape the cellar in what should be a tough division. Much will depend on young players like Brian Bannister, Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, all of whom are candidates for breakout years.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox were an unstoppable force last year, and there's little reason to think that this season will be any different. Most of the championship roster returns, and there's reason to believe the pitching staff -- which ranked first in the AL in ERA last season -- will be even better. Josh Beckett was stellar last year and really turned it on in the postseason while Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a full season to adjust to American baseball. Young hurlers Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester gained valuable experience last year and could both be key members of the rotation. The bullpen is young and talented. The offense returns every starter after scoring 867 runs last year.

2. New York Yankees
I believe Hank Steinbrenner will look back and regret not making a more aggressive push for Santana. The Yankees needed him if they were going to compete with the juggernaut Red Sox this year. As it stands, they will be relying heavily on their trio of talented young starters -- Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy -- and hoping that crafty vets Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte can make it through the season in good health. Really, Chien-Ming Wang is the only known commodity in this rotation. The bullpen does not project strongly.

The Yankees led the AL in scoring last year, and no one doubts that this offense will put runs on the board. The question is whether the pitching staff can hold up under the pressure. There are some good hitters in this division.

3. Tampa Bay Rays
Perhaps I'm going out on a limb with this pick, but boy is this a talented young roster. The Rays feature a great trio of young pitchers at the head of their rotation in Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza. Meanwhile, the offense features several studs, from Carl Crawford to B.J. Upton to Carlos Pena (who quietly had an absolutely stellar season last year) to Rookie of the Year candidate Evan Longoria. The bullpen could present some problems, but I think this is a team that could surprise some people.

4. Toronto Blue Jays
Every year, it seems that the Jays have a highly talented roster and could contend with the Twin Titans for a playoff spot, but each year they come up short. The pitching staff should be strong as long as Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett stay healthy, but it's difficult to see this offense -- which ranked tenth in the AL in runs scored last year -- improving much with its only significant offseason acquisitions coming in the form of oft-injured third baseman Scott Rolen and scrappy (yet crappy) shortstop David Eckstein.

5. Baltimore Orioles
With top pitcher Bedard and slugging shortstop Miguel Tejada out of the picture, the Orioles will probably spend the 2008 season dwelling at the bottom of the AL East while developing some raw but talented young pitchers like Adam Loewen, Radhames Liz and Daniel Cabrera.

Twins 8, Reds 6

The Twins entered the bottom of the ninth trailing the Reds 6-4 in yesterday's exhibition match-up, but a two-run homer from Randy Ruiz tied the game and another two-run homer from Chris Basak one inning later gave the Twins a victory. Granted, neither of those players are likely to make the Twins' roster out of spring training, nor is the team's pitcher of record (Mariano Gomez, who tossed a pair of scoreless innings), but there were some encouraging signs from players who are indeed in the Twins' plans this year.

Carlos Gomez, who is in a three-way battle for the starting center field job, got the start and batted lead-off. He went 1-for-2 with an RBI double, a walk, and a stolen base. Alexi Casilla, who started at shortstop, also stole a pair of bases. Ron Gardenhire has not been timid about sending those two speedsters when they've reached first base so far this spring; I have to wonder whether this represents a fundamental change in the manager's usually conservative philosophy, or whether he's just letting them fly because it's early spring. Time will tell.

Joe Mauer went 1-for-3 with an RBI double and is hitting .500 this spring. Glen Perkins got the start and pitched two innings, allowing a run on two hits and two walks with no strikeouts. He seems to be struggling a bit. Philip Humber, who was roughed up in an outing against Concordia College about a week ago, tossed a perfect seventh.

Tomorrow afternoon the Twins look to raise their spring winning percentage to .500 as they face off against Tampa Bay, and then on Wednesday they will face the the Yankees in a game that will be televised nationally on ESPN.

In the Win Column

Spring training is in full swing and the Twins have finally won a game, defeating the Red Sox 8-2 yesterday in the third consecutive meeting between the two clubs. Interestingly, after struggling to score runs through their first three exhibition games, the Twins managed to bring eight men across the plaet on a day where they trotted out this intimidating starting lineup:

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Nick Punto, 2B
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, LF
6. Mike Redmond, C
7. Brian Buscher, 3B
8. Jon Knott, DH
9. Adam Everett, SS

Knott homered for the Twins, while Everett and Cuddyer chipped in with doubles. Livan Hernandez got the start and tossed two innings, giving up a double to David Ortiz and a home run to Mike Lowell on an 83 mph fastball.

Here are some notes on various topics as we work our way toward Opening Day:

* The battle for the starting center field job is one of this spring's most interesting storylines. Yesterday, Span got the start in center field and went 1-for-5. Pridie replaced Cuddyer in right field midway through the game and went 2-for-2 with a two-run single and a stolen base. Gomez sat the game out and is 1-for-6 this spring.

* Several Twins fans have been taking guilty pleasure in the fact that Johan Santana was roughed up in his spring debut with the Mets on Friday afternoon. I find this somewhat puzzling. Torii Hunter seems to get a free pass from everyone around here, despite the fact that his behavior on his way out of Minnesota was questionable at best. The majority of fans I talk to seem to wish him well in Los Angeles, and I have little doubt that he will receive a standing ovation in the Metrodome when he steps into the batter's box on March 31.

I'm sure there are people who disagree with me, but I thought that Santana acted with class and composure this winter. While it was relatively clear that he wanted out, Santana never demanded a trade outright, nor did he ever really speak ill of the organization. It was doubtlessly frustrating for him to see his name tossed around in so many different rumors during the offseason, but for the most part he kept his mouth shut (something Hunter could never seem to do) and kept to himself.

I respect Santana immensely, as a player and as a person, and I wish him all the best in New York. Despite his shaky first outing, I fully expect that he will find great success with the Mets.

* Reading this article in yesterday's Star Tribune was pretty painful. Here's what Ron Gardenhire had to say about Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young:

Gomez led off the first inning with a single against Red Sox starter Jon Lester and stole second on the next pitch.

In his next two plate appearances, Gomez came up with runners on base and took some tenacious swings that left Gardenhire chuckling. "I really think he swung so hard that the bat broke before the ball got there," Gardenhire said. "... He's a little bit of a free spirit."

Gardenhire met with Gomez on Saturday and encouraged him to keep being aggressive. "He took it to heart," Gardenhire said. "He looks at me and says, 'Boy, I like this guy.'

"He was hacking; nothing wrong with that. I like the way he plays. He's pretty fast, and he can be pretty exciting."

Young swung at more pitches last year (1,484) than any player in baseball. But he took the first six pitches he saw for balls Saturday, drawing a first-inning walk that loaded the bases, and then ripped a run-scoring single in the second inning.

Instead of pleading for more patience, as Young's former team did in Tampa Bay, the Twins have asked him to stay aggressive.

"All the on-base percentage [stats] and all those things -- he's dangerous when he lets that thing fly and gets fastballs," Gardenhire said. "We're going to want him to swing this year more than taking a lot of pitches and watching them go by.

"And I think he'll be more than willing to let them fly."

In my mind, Jacque Jones and -- to a lesser extent -- Hunter never really reached their full potential as Twins, because they were free swingers who never developed any plate discipline. Apparently the Twins didn't learn a lesson, because Gardenhire doesn't seem to have any interest in preaching patience to Gomez or Young, both of whom have displayed poor on-base skills throughout their careers thus far. This is unfortunate. I'm not trying to say that a player can't be great without the ability to take walks -- Kirby Puckett and Tony Oliva come to mind as guys who did just that -- but boy, does it help... particularly for a guy like Gomez who projects to hit at the top of the order.

Let the Games Begin

The Twins opened their exhibition schedule yesterday with a sight that has become all too familiar to fans -- an inept offensive performance resulting in a loss. The Reds defeated the Twins 6-1 thanks to a pair of three-run innings. Glen Perkins surrendered a three-run home run in the fifth, and Ricky Barrett later gave up three more runs in the eighth. The Twins managed only five hits and scored their only run in the sixth inning thanks to three errors by Cincinnati fielders. Phil Miller observed that the loss was "awfully reminiscent of last season's constant search for offense." That's disheartening. It also gives me an opportunity to dust off the ol' "offensive ineptitude" post label. Sadly, I'm sure it won't be the last time I'll be attaching it to a post this season.

Of course, this was only the first game of the spring, so it's far too early to draw any conclusions or become overly concerned. Here's hoping the Twins look better tonight, with Boof Bonser facing off against Boston Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Sorry for the skimpy post today, but it was a long week and I'm beat. If anyone has anything interesting to discuss or debate in the comments section, I'll be around. Have a good weekend all.

* EDIT: Also, make sure to visit Twins Territory. They've launched their revamped and re-designed blog/fan community and it looks great!

Thin at the Top

The other day, Baseball America released their Top 100 Prospects list for the 2008 season. The Twins organization had three representatives: Deolis Guerra at 35, Carlos Gomez at 52 and Nick Blackburn at 56. Only one of those players was actually signed and developed by the Twins.

For a team that emphasizes drafting and player development, having one internally raised prospect in BA's Top 100 (and many have opined that Blackburn's position at No. 56 is overly generous) is downright embarrassing. It certainly does not speak well to the way the Twins have drafted over the past several years. It also doesn't paint a particularly bright future for a team that is amidst a rebuilding process.

This problem can be remedied though. First of all, the Twins need a few guys currently in their low minors to have breakout years. There are plenty of candidates to do so -- some notable ones include Tyler Robertson, Deibinson Romero, Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee. For the Twins to return their system to prominence, it is also essential that they do well in the upcoming draft in June. The Twins will have a number of high picks, including three of the first 31 thanks to Torii Hunter's free agent departure. As far under budget as they are, there's absolutely no excuse for the Twins to go cheap like they did last year. Spend the money it takes to get the best players available.

The Twins' system is currently in a state of disrepair, and BA's list serves as a grim reminder of that fact. Fortunately, the organization isn't too far from getting back to where it needs to be. This year should be a big one in that respect.

Second-Half Performances: Trend or Mirage?

Baseball players frequently put up numbers during the second half of a season that differ dramatically from what they were able to do in the first half. This can be attributed to a variety of factors. Sometimes it is a player who is young, or returning from injury, and improving as he adjusts to the level of competition. In other instances, we find the opposite affect -- that a player's performance will decline in the latter part of the season as opponents discover his weaknesses and adjust to his style of play. And of course, in some cases, the change in production is attributable simply to luck, or to a particularly good or bad stretch of play.

Whatever the case, oftentimes we can look at a player's second half and use it as a predictor as to how he will perform in the next season. It makes intuitive sense that a player is more likely to carry his performance from the latter half a season forward, rather than the early part of the season. With this in mind, let's take a look at some Twins players who saw their performance rise or fall in the second half of 2007, and judge whether or not we can expect those second-half trends to carry over into the 2008 season.

1. PAT NESHEK, RP
First half: 42.1 IP, 1.70 ERA, 52 K/13 BB, opp .129/.205/.243
Second half: 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 22 K/14 BB, opp .260/.347/.440

MIRAGE

Neshek's drop-off in the second half last season was dramatic, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't somewhat concerned. However, for the time being, I am inclined to label it as a mirage. Before being shut down mid-way through September, Neshek had appeared in a total of 74 games last year. That is a ton for a guy whose previous high for an entire season was 65 (set the previous year). While his innings load (70 1/3) was not that bad, it wears a pitcher down to warm up and enter games that frequently, and indeed Neshek was shelved with two weeks left because his arm had worn down. More than likely, that's why we saw his numbers drop off after the All-Star break. He enters this season with a fresh arm after a winter of rest, and hopefully Ron Gardenhire will be a little less liberal about forcing Neshek to warm up and enter games several nights in a row just to get an out or two.

2. JASON KUBEL, OF
First half: 240 AB, .250/.302/.404, 7 HR, 37 RBI
Second half: 178 AB, .303/.379/.511, 6 HR, 28 RBI

TREND

Kubel seemed out of his element for much of 2006 after missing the entire 2005 campaign in the aftermath of major knee surgery. His struggles carried over into the early part of the 2007 season, where he appeared tentative at the plate and seemed to struggle with his pitch recognition. However, even during the hard times, Kubel always made hard contact, and as he began to regain the plate discipline that he showed throughout the minors, his numbers began to improve rapidly. Prior to the All-Star break last year, Kubel's K/BB ratio was 2.6; afterward, that number dropped to 1.4. The latter number is much more in line with his minor-league K/BB ratio of 1.1, and as such it should be no surprise that his second-half hitting line was extremely similar to this career hitting line in the minors of .320/.385/.499. Expect similar things in 2008.

3. MATT GUERRIER, RP
First half: 53 IP, 1.70 ERA, 37 K/13 BB, opp .183/.246/.253
Second half: 35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 31 K/8 BB, opp .272/.318/.463

TREND

Guerrier has always been a pretty solid pitcher, but I don't think there's really any question that he was playing way over his head in the first half last year. His luck evened out in the second half, when his ERA and opponents' OPS shot way up despite the fact that he improved his strikeout rate considerably and maintained a relatively modest walk rate. Considering his past performance and his age, I think it's much more realistic to expect an ERA around 3.34 than around 1.70 from Guerrier. Fortunately, that's still very solid.

4. JUSTIN MORNEAU, 1B
First half: 322 AB, .295/.364/.581, 24 HR, 74 RBI
Second half: 268 AB, .243/.318/.384, 7 HR, 37 RBI

MIRAGE

Through the first four months or so of the 2007 season, Morneau continued to post numbers very similar to the ones he racked up during his MVP campaign in 2006. Then, in August and September, Morneau completely fell apart. After hammering 28 home runs through the end of July, Morneau managed a measly three home runs during the season's final 56 games. The drop-off in power isn't completely shocking, since we saw the same trend even during his magnificent '06 campaign (albeit to a much lesser degree), but in 2007 Morneau lacked a .342 second-half batting average to offset the power outage. His offensive numbers down the stretch last year were dreadful, and it seems completely inexplicable. As far as I'm aware, he had no major injuries, and the drop-off in production did not come along with a noticeable increase in strikeouts or decrease in walks. With all these facts in mind, I'm inclined to pass off Morneau's dud second half as a really bad two-month stretch, rather than a fundamental decline in ability. Considering the massive contract he recently signed, we'd better hope that is the case.

Spring Has Sprung

Well, not literally. It's still February, and still pretty cold outside (though not nearly as bad as it was before -- boy was yesterday's 35-degree high refreshing). Down in Ft. Myers, the temperatures have been in the 80s and warm-ups are heating up. La Velle E. Neal III, Joe Christensen and Phil Miller have all been blogging live from the ballpark, and each scribe has been delivering many interesting details. I've particularly enjoyed Miller's blog; he has been updating several times each day and his coverage has been extremely thorough. Thanks Phil, keep up the great work.

Christensen had some quotes from Ron Gardenhire in one of his blog posts yesterday indicating that the 2008 batting order might be starting to take shape.

“I would like to have him [Justin Morneau] in that 4-spot,” Gardy said. “I think that’s where he belongs.”

So from that, would it be safe to assume he wants Joe Mauer batting second?

“No, I wouldn’t assume that,” Gardy said. “I think that sounds really good, but don’t assume that. I like that. I think [Mauer’s] an on-base percentage guy, and I’d like to have a righthanded bat in between them. … So it makes sense, if we can find a leadoff guy, and if we can find a third hitter, all those things.”

Batting Mauer second and Morneau fourth makes a lot of sense, and the smart money would be on either Delmon Young or Michael Cuddyer hitting between them. Unless Young can learn how to take a walk, I think it would make more sense to hit Cuddyer ahead of Morneau because he'll probably get on base more often than Young this season. Here's my early prediction for the Opening Day lineup:

1. Gomez, CF
2. Mauer, C
3. Cuddyer, RF
4. Morneau, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Kubel, DH
7. Harris, 2B
8. Lamb, 3B
9. Everett, SS

That group is short on speed outside of Gomez, but each player 2-6 is a legit 20-plus home run threat. If forced to choose between a lineup built around speed or power, I'll go with the latter. The speed approach didn't really work for the 2007 unit.

Speaking of speed, it sounds like Kevin Slowey is popping the mitt pretty hard here in early spring. We've all come to learn that you can't put too much stock into reports on players from spring practices (remember Buster Olney's raves about Justin Jones back in spring of '06?), but it's definitely good to hear that Twins' hitters are coming away from the batting box shaking their heads after facing Slowey. Despite his stellar minor-league numbers, scouts have always been hesitant to label Slowey a top prospect or a potential ace because he lacks devastating stuff. Any signs of change on that front are welcome.

Jim Souhan had a very well written column on the charms of Spring Training in yesterday's Star Tribune. I found one observation particularly amusing:

You could hear Twins legend Tony Oliva chiding choosy hitters from behind the cage, saying, "No take-a, take-a, take-a. If I could see it, I swung at it."

Here's hoping the Twins keep Oliva away from Delmon Young.

Offseason in Review

Barring the acquisition of a veteran center fielder or another washed up innings-eater to add to the rotation, it looks like Bill Smith's first offseason at the helm of the Minnesota Twins is complete. It was certainly the most eventful winter we've seen around these parts for some time. The departures of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter and the arrivals of Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez represent a fundamental shift in the team's philosophy -- sort of an "out with the old, in with the new" movement. But how successful was Smith in taking care of business over the past several months? Let's take a look at each move and grade them out.

Joe Nathan's option activated for $6 million.
This one was an absolute no-brainer. Nathan is a terrific bargain at this price. His presence will be extremely important this year with so many questions surrounding the Twins' bullpen.

GRADE: A

Craig Monroe acquired from Cubs for player to be named later.
Trading for Monroe was not a bad idea in and of itself. He's a decent player with some pop and the ability to hit lefties. The problem is that the Twins will end up paying Monroe $3.82 million this season, which is way too much for a guy who hit .219/.268/.370 last year. Granted, payroll is far from an issue for this team, but it still seems ill-advised to throw that kind of money at Monroe when there were several considerably less expensive options available who would have been at least as good.

GRADE: C-

Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan traded to Tampa Bay for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie.
Bringing in a player with Young's upside is always a good thing, and he has a chance to be a very special player for this team for many years to come. Meanwhile, the addition of Harris addresses a lack of offense from the middle-infield positions for the Twins, while Pridie gives the team a potentially solid center field option. The thing that irks me about this trade is how much value the Twins had to give up in it. I understand why a blue-chip pitching prospect like Garza and an established major-league shortstop like Bartlett were included; you've got to give something to get something. Yet, the presence of Morlan in the deal really hurts. He was the organization's best relief pitching prospect, and a guy who might have been Joe Nathan's eventual replacement. If Young really lives up to the hype, this can still be a good deal, but as it stands I wouldn't say this deal favors the Twins much at all.

GRADE: C+

Free agent Adam Everett signed to one year, $2.8 million deal.
With Bartlett gone, the Twins needed an answer at shortstop -- at the very least someone who could serve as a stopgap until Alexi Casilla or Trevor Plouffe is ready to take over. The signing of Everett takes care of that issue, and it's a one-year deal with a relatively reasonable price tag. Everett is one of the worst hitters in all of baseball, but also one of the best defenders. As long as the Twins are able to fill other spots in the lineup with reasonably productive hitters, Everett can be a useful player. However, if he's in the same lineup as Nick Punto and Carlos Gomez, it's probably going to be a tough day for the Twins' pitchers. A hitter as poor as Everett is really the last thing an offense-starved team like the Twins needed, but in fairness they needed a reliable answer at shortstop and his contract is a low-risk one-year deal.

GRADE: C+

Free agent Mike Lamb signed to two-year, $6.6 million deal.
Just a day after signing one former Astro in Everett, the Twins tabbed another one in Lamb. Everett and Lamb, who spent several seasons playing alongside one another on the left side of Houston's infield, is basically a polar opposites. While Everett is a defensive wizard with a very weak bat, Lamb is a productive hitter whose defensive ability is limited. Because of that, and because he tends to struggle against left-handers, I don't think Lamb will be a full-time starter at third base. With that said, he'll get the lion's share of the at-bats there, and will undoubtedly present a massive offensive upgrade over Punto. Lamb is 32, so the two-year deal (with an option for a third year) is reasonable, as is the money involved. Good signing.

GRADE: B+

Justin Morneau signed to six-year, $80 million extension.
Admittedly, the Twins might be overpaying for Morneau. He'll have to be solidly above average with the bat in order to be worth the kind of money he'll be getting during his first three free agent years in this deal, and his career line (.276/.340/.498) is decidedly average for a first baseman. With that said, I think there's plenty of reason to believe that Morneau will be a better hitter than that over the course of this contract. It was also crucially important for the Twins to make a big move and show a commitment to competing during an offseason where they lost three popular veterans due to budget constraints. Signing Morneau, the organization's lone proven power hitter, to the biggest contract in franchise history certainly qualifies as such a move. Morneau might be overrated a bit by Minnesota fans, but there's a reason for that -- he's the only legitimate home run threat to don a Twins' uniform in quite a long time, and there aren't exactly a bunch more percolating in the minor leagues. It is for that reason that locking up Morneau for the foreseeable future was an absolute necessity, even if the Twins are overpaying a bit.

GRADE: A-

Michael Cuddyer signed to three-year, $24 million extension.
Another smart signing. I'm not the hugest Cuddyer fan, but the money here is a reasonable for a corner outfielder who is relatively productive with the bat and a good clubhouse presence. The fact that the contract is for only three years (with a club option for a fourth) is crucial, because it protects the team in the event that Cuddyer proves to be the sub par hitter he was last year, while also leaving the door open for a prospect like Chris Parmelee or Joe Benson to eventually overtake right field.

GRADE: A-

Johan Santana traded to Mets for Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
This was, of course, the doozy. Smith was in a tough spot -- extending Santana was not feasible, the pitcher was threatening to enact his no-trade clause if nothing had been worked out by the start of Spring Training, and there was likely pressure from up top to make a move and avoid the PR backlash that would come along with Santana walking as a free agent at the end of the season. For those reasons, I don't really blame Smith for failing to get anything close to fair value in return for the two-time Cy Young Award-winning left-hander. But there's really no doubt about it: this was not a good trade from the Twins' perspective. At all. They gave up the league's best pitcher -- a guy who is in the prime of his career and well on his way to Cooperstown -- and in return they got four flawed prospects, none of whom could have even been considered the best prospect in his own organization prior to the trade. Unfortunately, that's just how things played out. Santana would need to be signed to a massive contract, and the interest just wasn't there. A disappointing situation where no one can really inherit the blame, but a bad trade nonetheless.

GRADE: D

Free agent Livan Hernandez signed to one-year, $5 million deal.
Hernandez has been trending downward in almost every important category for the past for years, and is switching from the worst offensive division in baseball to a very solid one, so the outlook for him in 2008 is not particularly encouraging. He may not hang in the rotation for the entire year, in which case the $5 million the Twins are paying him could end up being a colossal waste. With that said, Hernandez has thrown 200+ innings just about every year he's been in the league, and his veteran presence could prove important on a staff that is nearly devoid of big-league experience. There's very little chance that he'll end up being for $5 million, but it's only a one-year deal and there's a decent chance he could be useful to this team.

GRADE: C

---

When reflecting on the Twins' 2007 and looking ahead to the upcoming offseason back in early October of last year, I made the following statement:

This offseason is going to be a hugely important one, and I really have no idea what to expect from new GM Bill Smith. I truly hope he's able to make some moves that will get the team back on a competitive track in 2008 while simultaneously setting the organization up for future success.

Clearly, that was the blueprint that Smith followed during this offseason. There was obviously an eye toward the future with acquisitions like Young and Gomez, but also a focus on fielding a competitive team in the short-term with signings like Lamb and Hernandez. The result is a roster with a lot of potential, but also a lot of work to do to reach that potential. If players like Young, Gomez and Guerra end up turning into star players, Smith's first offseason will be looked back at as a huge success. If they fail to progress, we may look back at it as a winter of despair, one that sent the organization spiraling back into those dark days of the mid-'90s. I'm cautiously optimistic that things will work out, but for now it's very difficult to judge this offseason.

Visa: Don't Leave Home Without It

Last week, we learned that visa problems were going to keep Francisco Liriano from showing up in Ft. Myers in time for the scheduled arrival date for pitchers and catchers. Yesterday, La Velle reported that visa problems would also be preventing Dennys Reyes and Alexi Casilla from arriving to camp on time.

Liriano's issues stem from a DUI arrest back in 2006, and the law that is holding him up is actually a relatively new one implemented within the past year. As such, his situation is excusable. Likewise, Casilla missed an appointment to pick up his visa due to what Bill Smith described as "a legitimate family medical emergency," so we can let that slide too. But as far as I can tell, the only reason Reyes didn't notice until recently that his visa is set to expire in a few weeks is that he never bothered to check. To me, that's unacceptable.

Reyes and Casilla each took a major step backward from 2006 to 2007, and both will be looking to rebound here in 2008.

On another note, here is a Joe Mauer interview spliced with some early spring warm-up videos, courtesy of Noah Pranksy and ABC 7 Sports.

Meanwhile, Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire proves he's even more hip than Mitt Romney with this quote in a story about Livan Hernandez's large earrings:

"We talked to him [Hernandez] about those things. We don't wear bling-blings on the field," Gardenhire said. "... I told him he can't wear those anymore. So he's game-on."

2008 Spring Training Preview

The sun is high in the sky, blanketing the expansive stretch of freshly cut outfield grass. A warm breeze blows across the infield, kicking up puffs of brown sand and carrying them into the dugout and seats. The sound of bats cracking and mitts smacking fills the air. Ah, spring.

That last paragraph was pretty difficult to write as I sit here staring out my frost-covered window at another gray winter day in Minnesota. But it sure was fun. I like Minnesota, and I don't generally mind winter, but by the time we approach the end of February each year, I am ready for the snow to melt and for all the wonderful sights and sounds of baseball to fill the air. Fortunately, the start of Spring Training is upon us in the nick of time. Most catchers and pitchers are in Ft. Myers now, and the rest of the position players will slowly begin to make appearances over the course of the next couple weeks.

The majority of us fans can't make it down to Florida to take in the spring action (I'll be in Orlando for a week in mid-March and I'm holding out hope that I can get someone to take a trip down to Ft. Myers with me), but at the very least we can follow all the updates courtesy of the Star Tribune and Pioneer Press beat writers who work tirelessly to transmit all of the pertinent developments to those of us unfortunate enough to be stuck in Minne-snow-ta.

Last year, the Twins went into Spring Training with few questions. They had retained most of their players from a successful 2006 campaign, and the starters at most positions were decided going in. This year will be a lot different, to say the least. Major offseason shakeups have left the Twins with many new faces, and several decisions to be made. Today I'll preview some storylines that merit following, as well as some starting spots that multiple players will likely be auditioning for a spot at. Finally, I will predict the Opening Day 25-man roster, which will undoubtedly prove to be a much more difficult task than it was last year.

Worth Keeping an Eye On...

* Francisco Liriano. When will he get to camp? How will his arm feel? Where will his velocity be? How much will he throw his slider? Certainly more important questions surrounding him than any other player, and the answers could very well determine whether the Twins are contenders or pretenders in 2008.

* The new guys. There are a lot of them: Delmon Young, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Livan Hernandez, Craig Monroe, etc. Many Twins fans will be getting their first significant looks at these guys. What will they bring to the table? How will they fit in with the returning Twins' nucleus?

* Joe Nathan. Reports indicate that he and the team are in talks about a contract extension, but it's difficult to gauge how serious these talks really are. Given their frugal nature, it's hard to see the Twins being willing to pony up the amount of money Nathan is likely to command. Will his undecided contract situation be a distraction?

* Jesse Crain. He's coming off surgery for one of the most devastating injuries possible for a pitcher -- a torn rotator cuff and labrum -- and the prognosis for guys in his position is not good. He claims to be ready to go, but I'll be very skeptical until I hear that he's on the mound and throwing 90+ mph.

Position Battles

Starting Second Baseman
This would appear to be a three-way battle between Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and newly acquired Brendan Harris. Each player has his strengths: Punto is the stellar defender, Casilla the speedy and exciting youngster, with Harris possessing the best stick. Given his poor 2007 campaign, I think there's little doubt that Casilla will start the season in Rochester unless he goes crazy this spring. Punto would seem to have an intrinsic advantage given the fact that Ron Gardenhire is clearly very fond of him, but I imagine that the offense-starved Twins will end up going with Harris on Opening Day in spite of his defensive deficiencies. He will have to have a good spring though, in order to avoid giving Gardy an excuse to stick with his favorite tail-battler.

Favorite: Brendan Harris

Starting Center Fielder

Right now this looks like a battle between two newly acquired players: Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins hand a one-year contract to one of the remaining veteran free agents at the position, such as Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson. If not, the advantage probably goes to Gomez by a smidge, although either one could make a good case. Pridie has the advantage of being older and more experienced, and he's actually had material success in the high minors. Conversely, Gomez is young and still quite raw, and since he was pushed very aggressively through the Mets' system he never had much time to adjust to any level. That's likely a large part of the reason that he has never had a ton of success at any stop in the minors.

With that said, I suspect the Twins will be eager to show some kind of return on the Johan Santana deal, and while his offensive game is a work in progress, Gomez already looks to be an above-average defender and base-runner. It also stands to reason that the Twins might prefer his right-handed bat to Pridie's left-handed bat in a lineup that is somewhat heavy on lefties, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Mike Lamb all projecting to be regular starters. I'll give the edge to Gomez for now, but this seems like a spot that could easily be won with a strong performance in March.

Favorite: Carlos Gomez

Fifth Spot in the Rotation

This is tricky, because one could really make an argument that all five spots in the rotation are up for grabs. For the purposes of this article, I'm going to assume that Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Livan Hernandez all have a spot in the rotation locked up. They are the most established candidates and I think it would take a really poor spring or an injury to prevent any of those guys from being there. This leaves an open competition for the last spot, where numerous young hurlers are likely to get a look. These names include Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing. You could also add veterans Zach Day and Randy Keisler to the list of contenders, but I suspect that they were brought in more as minor-league filler than legitimate candidates to fill a major-league roster spot.

Looking at the group of promising young arms, there are several guys with the potential to step up and seize a spot. But I'll make a couple of assumptions. First, I believe that both Blackburn and Perkins will start the season pitching out of the Twins' bullpen. I think the team will be grooming Humber for the bullpen, though he may just start the season starting in Triple-A. Mulvey is also likely to start in Rochester, and my guess is that Duensing will be there also since his name has mysteriously not been brought up much by Twins' coaches when discussing this year's rotation. That leaves Slowey, who is the only one in the bunch with significant big-league experience.

Slowey made his major-league debut with the Twins last year and tossed 66 2/3 innings with a relatively unimpressive 4.73 ERA. It's certainly worth noting, however, that in his second stint with the team as a September call-up, Slowey was excellent, posting a 3.34 ERA and 28-to-3 K/BB ratio over 29 2/3 innings. Given his late-season success and his complete dominance in Triple-A, I can't see any way the Twins send Slowey back to Rochester as long as he has a solid spring.

Favorite: Kevin Slowey

Final Bullpen Spot(s)

We can be relatively certain that Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier will all have a spot in the bullpen on March 31. That leaves one additional spot, or two if the Twins elect to go with a seven-man bullpen (which I believe they will, considering the lack of experience in the starting rotation). I've stated before that I think Humber is going to end up in the 'pen, and I figured that he would likely start the season there if he was truly out of options, which had been rumored in various places. However, La Velle cleared up those rumors on Saturday when he reported that Humber still has one option left. With that being the case, I believe he will start the season in Triple-A, with Blackburn opening the season in the Twins' bullpen as a long reliever. If Jesse Crain is truly back to full strengh in the wake of his surgery, that final spot would probably go to him. Since I have a hard time believing that he'll be ready to go at the outset of the season, I'm going to say the final spot will end up going to Perkins, who is the logical choice since he would give the team a second lefty out of the bullpen.

Favorites: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins

Final Bench Spot
A seven-man bullpen leaves only four available spots on the bench. We can reasonably assume that three of those spots will be occupied by Mike Redmond, Craig Monroe and Punto (or Harris). The final spot is a little tricky. It could be occupied by the loser of the Gomez/Pridie battle in center field, but I doubt that for two reasons: 1) since both of those players are at a stage where they should be getting regular playing time, the loser would logically open the season as Rochester's starting CF; and 2) the Twins would already have five outfielders between Young, Cuddyer, Kubel, Monroe and Gomez/Pridie. Even Punto could fill a spot in a pinch.

What the Twins lack in the current scenario is backup infielder who can actually be an asset as a pinch-hitter. Punto can play any infield spot, but his bat is weak at third base and especially weak at first base. So, a more powerful corner-infield type would make sense. Garrett Jones is an option, but he is a poor defender and his left-handed bat is redundant with Morneau and Lamb (he also wouldn't be able to field any infield position other than first base). The defensive issues and left-handed bat also prevent Brian Buscher from looking like a real contender. Instead, I think the best option might be Matt Macri, who can play first, second or third, and possesses a solid right-handed bat which could be platooned with Lamb.

Favorite: Matt Macri

---

With all those battles in mind, here is how I project the Twins' Opening Day 25-man roster (although I certainly reserve the right to make adjustments as Spring Training progresses):

STARTERS

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Brendan Harris

3B: Mike Lamb

SS: Adam Everett

LF: Delmon Young

CF: Carlos Gomez

RF: Michael Cuddyer

DH: Jason Kubel

BENCH

C: Mike Redmond

IF: Nick Punto

IF: Matt Macri

OF: Craig Monroe

ROTATION

SP: Scott Baker

SP: Boof Bonser

SP: Francisco Liriano

SP: Livan Hernandez

SP: Kevin Slowey

BULLPEN

RP: Joe Nathan

RP: Pat Neshek

RP: Matt Guerrier

RP: Juan Rincon

RP: Dennys Reyes

RP: Nick Blackburn

RP: Glen Perkins

Thoughts?

Wrapping Up the Offseason

The long, cold offseason is finally coming to a close, with pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday. Next week I'll have an offseason review piece, as well as a Spring Training preview, and within a couple weeks the Twins' exhibition schedule will be getting underway.

I don't have much to write about today, but here are a few notes:

* One pitcher who won't be reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday is Francisco Liriano, who is having visa problems stemming from a 2006 DUI arrest. The process of getting things cleared up could take a little over a week. That's unfortunate news, considering that Liriano probably needs to be in camp more than any other pitcher on the staff being that he hasn't pitched in a major-league game in well over a year. The good news, however, is that within the article linked above, Joe Christensen mentions that Liriano "appears fully recovered the Tommy John elbow procedure he had in November 2006," noting that the left-hander "pitched two innings recently in a scrimmage at the Twins’ Dominican academy in Boca Chica."

There is not one player on the Minnesota Twins that I am looking forward to watching this year more than Liriano.

* On Wednesday I wrote about the Twins' signing of Livan Hernandez and concluded that, while not outrageous, it is not a particularly good move. Many fans seem satisfied with the signing, and I have seen numerous people voice sentiments that sound something like this: "Basically the Twins got another Carlos Silva for about half the money Silva is making in Seattle."

While Hernandez and Silva are both heavyset Latino right-handers, the comparison is probably not apt. Given his recent downward trends, I think it's a lot more likely that Hernandez pitches like Silva v. 2006 than Silva v. 2004, 2005 or 2007. Silva was never flashy, but for the majority of his time in Minnesota, he was a solid pitcher who kept the team in games and occasionally tossed a gem. It seems like he was a little under-appreciated, and he may be missed more than people realize, especially by those who seem to think Hernandez will step in and pick up right where Silva left off.

* Speaking of Hernandez, Christensen had an entry in his blog yesterday outlining the details of the newly acquired pitcher's contract, which includes an incentive whereby Hernandez will receive $100,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award this year. Apparently that's pretty standard, but it still seems kind of funny to me. I'd be fine with the Twins rewarding him with $100 million if he wins the Cy Young.

* Finally, here's the image that graced the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section yesterday:

Could that be any more depressing for a Twins fan?

Par for the Course

We all knew it was going to happen at some point. Under-budget and facing the prospect of a starting rotation devoid of experienced veterans, the Twins were going to go out and overpay for a free agent pitcher with a proven ability to eat innings. The Twins dabbled earlier in the offseason, signing guys like Randy Keisler and Zach Day to basically risk-free minor-league contracts, but yesterday the team made its "big splash," handing Livan Hernandez a one-year contract worth $5 million (plus incentives).

The Cuban-born Hernandez, who will (allegedly) turn 33 a week from today, is an 11-year major-league veteran who has spent his entire career in the National League, spending time with four different organizations. He is the definition of a workhorse, having thrown 200-plus innings in nine of those seasons (and 199 2/3 in one of the others). He led the National League in innings pitched for three consecutive years from 2003-05, and has finished in the top ten in that category seven times. He ranks 15th among active pitchers in total innings.

Unfortunately, along with being durable, Hernandez is also quite hittable and homer-prone, and not particularly dominant. There was a time when he posted some pretty good numbers to go along with those impressive innings totals -- during those 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons where he led the NL in innings, Hernandez also kept his ERA under 4 and managed to strike out a reasonable number of hitters. Those days are in the past, however, and recent trends do not paint a pretty picture:

Year: ERA, K/9IP, WHIP
2004: 3.60, 6.56, 1.24
2005: 3.98, 5.37, 1.43
2006: 4.84, 5.06, 1.50
2007: 4.93, 3.96, 1.59

Obviously, these numbers are disconcerting. It stands to reason that, despite his (allegedly) relatively young age, Hernandez is already wearing down due to the high workload he has faced annually throughout his career. Now, with Hernandez another year older and switching to a better offensive league, there's every reason to believe that his numbers this season could slide into Ramon Ortiz territory.

Yet, I certainly wouldn't view this signing as negatively as the acquisitions of Ortiz and Sidney Ponson last year. For one thing, the Twins will probably only be filling one rotation spot with a washed up vet. That's much more palatable than the idea of promising 40 percent of your starts to Ponson and Ortiz, particularly when you consider that there is a lot less certainty in the rotation this season now that Johan Santana and Carlos Silva are gone. Let's break it down:

You'd like to think that Boof Bonser and Scott Baker are locks for two spots in the rotation, and hopefully Francisco Liriano can fill another spot. Given his dominance in Triple-A last year and his success with the Twins in September, I have to believe Kevin Slowey will make the rotation out of Spring Training. As I explained on Monday, I believe Phil Humber will start the season pitching out of the bullpen, so had the Twins not acquired Hernandez we would likely be left with a battle between Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing for the final spot in the rotation. Given that Perkins and Mulvey have essentially no experience at the Triple-A level, both could probably benefit from starting the season there, and it's not clear that either Blackburn or Duensing are ready to pitch in the Twins' rotation yet. Slotting Hernandez in that final rotation spot allows all four pitchers to start the season in Rochester (or perhaps, in some cases, the Twins' bullpen) and step in should any of the other five starters suffer an injury or prove ineffective.

While I'm not outraged with this signing, I'm not particularly fond of it either. There are two camps among fans when it comes to the 2008 Twins: one camp believes this team has a legitimate shot at competing, the other one doesn't. No matter which camp you belong to, there is little reason to get excited about this signing. If the Twins truly can compete this season, it's highly unlikely that Hernandez will provide better production as a starter than one of the Blackburn/Duensing/Perkins/Mulvey group would be able to provide, so he's not really enhancing their chances. If the Twins can't compete, then this is a rebuilding year and player development will be the key goal, in which case there's a good chance Hernandez will be hindering the development of at least one of those young pitchers.

Just as they have with many of their other free agent signings over the past few years, the Twins are bringing in an aging veteran who was good at one point but is not very good anymore, and banking on that veteran returning to something close to his old form. As we've seen with Ponson, Ortiz and Tony Batista, this just doesn't happen very often, and what you see is usually what you get with players like these. More than likely, that will be the case with Hernandez. Nevertheless, he does create some depth in the pitching staff, and immediately becomes the only player on the roster who has pieced together a full season in a major-league rotation. There's some value in that, and we'd be ignorant to overlook it.

Philip Humber: The Next Joe Nathan?

I had a dream last week. In this dream, the Twins had not yet announced the Johan Santana trade, but indications were that a deal with an unknown team was in place and that a press release would be made available by the team shortly. I fully expected Santana to be headed to the Yankees, with 21-year-old wunderkind Philip Hughes coming back. The idea was tantalizing -- the Twins would be losing their historically great southpaw, but getting back an absolute stud with legitimate potential to fill the massive void left by Santana's departure. Hughes and Francisco Liriano at the top of the rotation for the next five years? My mouth watered. I think I drooled into my pillow a little bit.

The announcement was made. The Twins had traded Santana. I rushed to my computer to read through the official press release. "The Minnesota Twins announced to today that they have traded two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana for a package that includes right-handed pitcher Philip..." Yes, this is looking good... "H..." Oh baby! "u..." How long until Hughes Twins jerseys are available at the Pro Shops?? "...mber." WHAT?! I woke up in a panic. Thank goodness it was only a dream, and the Twins didn't really trade Santana for a package whose most attractive player might be a marginal pitching prospect who posted a 4.27 ERA in Triple-A last year. Oh wait... yes they did.

There was a time when Phil Humber's career path appeared headed in the direction that Hughes' has gone. Selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Mets after a dominating career at Rice University, Humber had the makeup and stuff of a guy who could rocket through the minor leagues and be pitching at the top of an MLB rotation in no time. Sadly, elbow problems and Tommy John surgery have derailed Humber, and at this point he is far from a guarantee to develop into a strong major-league starter. At one point, it might have been realistic to say Humber could replace Santana as the Twins' ace, but at this point it would be difficult to make that case. Then again, it's entirely possible that the Twins wanted Humber in the package not as a replacement for Santana, but instead as a replacement for another elite Twins pitcher who may be on his way out.

Humber and Joe Nathan are alike in a number of ways. Nathan is 6'4" and 205 lbs. Humber is 6'4" and 210 lbs. Nathan came to the Twins as the most major-league ready pitcher in what was essentially a veteran-for-prospects swap. Ditto Humber. When he's at his best, Nathan relies on a speedy fastball and a nasty breaking pitch to fan opposing hitters. The same can be said for Humber.

Like Humber, Nathan was almost exclusively a starter as he traveled through the minor leagues, but obviously he thrived upon shifting to the bullpen. Could Humber experience the same type of success with a switch to the 'pen? It would be a logical move. Humber has struggled to regain the velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball since undergoing surgery on his elbow. Working in shorter bullpen stints, he may be better able to utilize his stuff. The lesser workload might also lower his risk for injury. Additionally, moving to the bullpen can be beneficial for pitchers who struggle with control -- that certainly was the case for Nathan, who walked 4.56 batters per nine innings as a minor-leaguer but has never seen that number exceed 2.86 since becoming a full-time closer in the big leagues. The Twins are going to be needing to add some power arms to their bullpen in the near future, with Nathan and Juan Rincon both likely to be gone after next year and Eduardo Morlan no longer in the organization.

It's unlikely that anyone acquired in Mets trade is going to become the next Johan Santana, but if Humber can become the next Joe Nathan, it will make the deal a whole lot more palatable. I think he could do it, but maybe I'm just dreaming.

Can Liriano Snap Back?

Oh, F-Bomb.

No, I'm not referring to Bert Blyleven's expletive of choice. I'm referring to a popular nickname for Francisco Liriano, the young left-handed phenom whose healing left elbow may be the key to the Twins' chances of competing in 2008. On Wednesday I wrote about the state of the Twins' organization from a pitching standpoint, noting that Liriano is the only player with legitimate ace potential likely to be on the team within the next several years. There's no doubting that Liriano has the ability to pitch like a No. 1 -- he was transcendent in 2006, better even than Johan Santana. The question is whether he will be able to regain that form, and if so, how soon he can get there. If it's this season, the Twins could be a force to be reckoned with. Is that plausible? Liriano says he feels great, but in order to get a realistic idea of what to expect from him this year, it is prudent to look at how other pitchers have historically fared in their first year back after the operation.

Here is a quick and dirty list of some prominent pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery over the past decade, and how they performed in the majors in their first year back (innings pitched, ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio):

Matt Morris
Underwent surgery: 1999
First season back: 53 IP, 3.57 ERA, 34/17

John Smoltz
Underwent surgery: 2000
First season back: 59 IP, 3.36 ERA, 57/10
Became a full-time closer upon returning; later returned to Atlanta's rotation where he has been excellent.

Erik Bedard
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 137.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 121/71
A good comp for Liriano because he's a hard-throwing left-hander with good breaking stuff.

Kris Benson
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 130.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 79/50

Adam Eaton
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 183 IP, 4.08 ERA, 146/68
Not truly his first season back, he returned to the Padres in September of '02 to make six starts and post a 5.40 ERA.

Jon Lieber
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 176.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 102/18

Chris Capuano
Underwent surgery: 2002.
First season back: 33 IP, 4.64, 23/11
Also pitched 142 2/3 innings in Triple-A for a total of 175 2/3 innings pitched in his first season back.

A.J. Burnett
Underwent surgery: 2003
First season back: 120 IP, 3.68 ERA, 113/38

Paul Byrd
Underwent surgery: 2003.
First season back: 114.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 79/19
Interestingly, he posted a 6.22 K/9 rate that ranks as his best in the past 10 years.

Ryan Dempster
Underwent surgery: 2003
First season back: 20.2 IP, 3.94 ERA, 18/13
Converted to a full-time reliever after the surgery. Has not been especially great since, but what's notable is that it took him less than a year to recover and get back on the mound.

Randy Wolf
Underwent surgery: 2005
First season back: 56.2 IP, 5.56 ERA, 44/33

Most of the players on this list managed to post numbers in line with their career averages in their first year back, which obviously would be a very good thing in Liriano's case. The big issue is innings. I couldn't find one example of a pitcher who surpassed the 200-inning mark in his first season back, and most reached only 130 or so. That might be a realistic goal for Liriano, but he does have a few things working in his favor: 1) he has had a longer recovery time than most pitchers on the list, and 2) he is very young. Of course, he also does have a relatively violent delivery and a high reliance on his breaking pitch, factors which may work against him.

To be completely honest, I have no idea what to expect from Liriano this season. If the Twins can get 130 innings at around a 3.00 ERA from him, I think we'd all be very satisfied. Can that actually happen? History says yes. We'll have to wait and see.

***

On a completely unrelated note, the Gophers football team's recruiting class was ranked No. 17 in the nation by Rivals.com and No. 23 by ESPN. That's pretty amazing for a team that went 1-11 last year. If you're at all interested, you can check out this feature I wrote on head coach Tim Brewster for the student magazine here at the U a while back. Great guy.

A Monumental Shift

For the past several years, the Twins' organization has been saddled with a major problem: too much pitching, too little hitting. It was a problem that prevented the 2005 and 2007 teams from making the playoffs, and also a deep-rooted issue that reached all the way into the lowest levels of the minor leagues. Any listing of the organization's top prospects was certain too include far more arms than bats. Fans continually bemoaned Terry Ryan's inability to deal from his pitching surplus and acquire legitimate hitters.

Now, here in the wake of Bill Smith's big offseason shakeup, I find myself looking up and down the organizational ladder and noticing a major reversal. Suddenly, it appears quite possible that pitching will be the problem needing to be addressed in coming years, while the offense could be in far better shape.

Don't get me wrong. Throughout the minor leagues, the Twins are still far deeper in quality pitchers than hitters. There are very few impact bats on the horizon, which remains troubling. Yet, looking at the Twins' major league roster, you find enough young, controllable, talented hitters to inspire confidence that this offense could be fairly strong for the next several years; to wit: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla, Mike Lamb and Jason Pridie. Granted, some of those players have chance of fizzling out (Gomez, Casilla, Pridie) and some aren't exactly young (Lamb), but all of the hitters listed have a decent shot at being productive hitters and all are locked up for at least the next three seasons. Several of the players listed -- most notably Mauer, Morneau and Young -- could very well rank among the league's elite hitters.

The pitching situation is less encouraging, if not in the long term than almost certainly in the short term. As I mentioned before, the Twins are not lacking in quality pitchers throughout their organization. In Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Brian Duensing, the Twins have a collection of major-league ready starters that most teams in the league would envy. The problem is that almost none of these pitchers have legitimate ace potential, and it would be a stretch to project almost any one of these guys as even a strong No. 2. This problem persists throughout the organization's advanced minor league affiliates. There are good prospects there: Anthony Swarzak, Ryan Mullins, Jeff Manship, Oswaldo Sosa, Yohan Pino and Jay Rainville to name a few. Each of those pitchers has a fairly good chance of developing into a big-leaguer at some point, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one with the makeup of a front-line major-league starter.

Dipping into the lower levels of the minor leagues, you find a few guys like Tyler Robertson and Deolis Guerra who have the upside of a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it's awfully difficult to put a ton of stock into pitching prospects who are still in their teens. Losing Johan Santana and Matt Garza has left this team with a lack of power arms outside of Francisco Liriano, so if Liriano struggles in his return from Tommy John surgery, we are potentially looking at a team that is very middle-heavy in terms of starting pitching over the next several years and without much in the way of star power. A rotation filled with solid but unspectacular starters would inevitably rank right in the middle of the league, and that would put a lot of pressure on the offense to make this team a playoff contender.

Over the next several seasons, we could see this team relying on offense to win games a lot more than we ever have in recent Twins history. That method will only work if some of the team's hitters live up to their star potential. Here's wishing good health to Liriano, and hoping guys like Baker and Bonser can step up to provide this staff with the type of above-average performance it will need. There might not be as much help on the horizon as we'd like to think in that department.

The Blame Game

Having passed his physical and reached agreement on a contract that will make him the richest pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana is now officially a member of the New York Mets. In return, the Twins have received a package of prospects that is almost unanimously being labeled as underwhelming. This development has Twins fans desperately seeking a deserving party upon which to pin blame in a situation that seemingly has not been handled very well. I've seen numerous articles leveling scathing criticism against everyone from Carl Pohlad to Bill Smith to Santana himself. My thinking on the subject is that while several people probably could have acted in a way that would have led to better results, no one was completely out of line here. The Twins were put in an unfortunate situation and the result is that they've lost their franchise player for a relative pittance. It's a shame, but I don't think anyone is specifically at fault.

First, let's talk about Santana. Fans seemed to have turned on him for the way he acted during this debacle, claiming that he abused his leverage and backed the Twins into a corner with his self-imposed deadline. We may never know how Santana truly felt or what he actually said behind closed doors, but reading between the lines I think it's fair to say that he didn't particularly want to pitch in Minnesota. It seems clear that Santana's preference was to move into a larger market to showcase himself, and ideally I think he wanted to move to the National League where the lineups are weaker and where he'll be able to bat. This made the Mets a natural fit.

As a fan of the Twins and a proud resident of Minnesota, the thought that Santana was anxious to move elsewhere is somewhat hurtful. But is it really a reason to hold resentment against him? If his preference is to pitch in New York, then he's well within his rights to try and arrange it. Some have accused him of being disloyal for trying to force his way out from a team that helped him become the pitcher he is today, but he did provide the Twins with five years of phenomenal performance, and he was never an open distraction in the clubhouse or unfriendly toward fans. If he wanted to move on, I think we owe it to him to respect his wishes. He was patient throughout the entire offseason, and I don't really see how he is out of line for wanting a resolution now that we're weeks away from Spring Training.

Now, on to Pohlad. In the wake of this trade, the wealthy Twins owner has been painted by numerous scribes as a greedy monster who coaxed a stadium out of the fans only to pocket his earnings and let the team's stars walk when they become expensive. I am far from a Pohlad defender, but I find this criticism to be unfair, at least when applied to the Santana situation.

For the reasons I mentioned above, I'm skeptical that Santana would have signed an extension with the Twins even if they had made an offer that rivaled the contract the Mets gave him. But even if he would have, would it really have been wise for the Twins to hand him such a contract? Signing pitchers to long-term deals is always a risky venture, and committing over $130 million to a guy who will soon enter his 30s could be suicide for a middle-market team like the Twins. Perhaps Santana is worth $25 million as long as he is the best pitcher in baseball, but will he remain the best pitcher in baseball as he ages into his mid-30s? Maybe, but that is far from guaranteed. I think that the Twins' decision not to extend Santana has less to do with a lack of financial resources and more to do with intelligent baseball management. And, in fairness, the team did just sign Justin Morneau to a six-year mega-deal, so it's not as if Pohlad has slammed the wallet shut.

Finally, many have focused their criticism on the general manager Smith for failing to get a package that includes even one true top prospect for Santana. I've frequently seen it written that Smith "overplayed his hand," when negotiating with the Yankees and Red Sox, only to eventually have them pull their offers. Yet, I can nearly guarantee that had Smith accepted one of those team's offers back in December (assuming the reported offers were legitimately on the table), there would be droves of fans and analysts criticizing Smith for acting too quickly and lacking the patience to create a bidding war which could force a better package out of one of the teams. Smith took a risk by playing the waiting game, and in the end it didn't pay off, but I hardly think one can hold it against him.

I'm more than a little disappointed by the package received for Santana, but I can't say I'm angry at any particular person about it. There's just nowhere to justifiably point a finger. The Twins made a competitive offer, Santana wanted to move on, and so Smith made the best deal he could. As I said when analyzing the trade last Wednesday, I'm not entirely sure that trading Santana for this package will ultimately be more beneficial to the team than keeping him for another year and collecting draft picks as free agent compensation, but I have to trust that the Twins see something in these Mets prospects.

Heading Out East

I have been traded to a New York blog. This morning I will fly out to NYC to negotiate a new contract. If talks are unsuccessful, I will return on Saturday evening and dutifully play out my contract with Nick & Nick's Twins Blog.

Should be interesting to be in the Big Apple in the wake of this Santana trade and in the days preceding a New York vs. Boston showdown in the Super Bowl. If I come across anything interesting and have Internet access, I'll be sure to blog about it. Otherwise, I'll be back with another post on Monday. Have a good weekend and thanks to all those who shared their viewpoints on the Santana swap in the comments section yesterday.

A Cold Day in Minnesota

The Twins have been known to surprise us before. Who would have thought that the prospects received back in the Frank Viola trade would help push them to a World Series championship just two years later? Who could have known that the prospects brought over in the Chuck Knoblauch deal would help form the foundation for putting them back into contention after a horrible dry spell in the late '90s? How could anyone have predicted that two of the relatively unknown pitchers received back in the A.J. Pierzynski trade would transform into elite All-Stars, while the third became an important member of the rotation?

Let's face it, the Twins have a track record of success when trading away star players amidst their primes, even if the results initially seem heavily skewed in favor of the other team. Maybe that will be the case with yesterday's deal that likely sends Johan Santana to the Mets in return for four unspectacular prospects. Unfortunately, that seems rather unlikely.

According to reports, the Twins made a final offer to Santana for five years and $100 million. Santana turned the offer down, and he and his agent pressured the Twins to make a decision as soon as possible. With the Red Sox and Yankees both reportedly having backed off with their offers, Bill Smith was forced to take what he could get from the Mets. It ended up being a package that includes center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

All that's left is for Santana to pass a physical and for the Mets to reach an agreement with the left-hander on a contract extension for the deal to become official. Since Santana is in tip-top shape and the Mets have the fiscal resources to give him the kind of money he's seeking, it seems very likely that this deal is as good as done.

There was really no way the Twins were going to get equal value for the best pitcher in baseball, and each of the rumored offers from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets was underwhelming in its own way. Yet, almost each of those deals included at least one player who could be considered a relatively sure bet to produce at the major-league level, a quality which this Mets package lacks. Perhaps it is unfair to compare this package to the rumored superior deals from the Red Sox and Yankees (or even the rumored superior deals from the Mets that included Fernando Martinez and/or Mike Pelfrey) and to accuse Smith of overplaying his hand. After all, there were continual rumblings that Yankees' GM Brian Cashman was unwilling to part with Phil Hughes, and many believed that Boston's only real interest in this sweepstakes was keeping Santana out of the Bronx. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the Mets were never truly considering parting ways with Martinez or Pelfrey. Still, it seems awfully hard to believe that this is the best offer the Twins officially received for Santana, and it's not clear to me that this course of action will be more beneficial to the team than simply hanging onto Santana for another year and taking the draft picks when he departs for free agency following the 2008 season.

In fairness, the players received from the Mets in this deal aren't bad. There's just a lot of questions surrounding them. I first discussed the players involved in the deal a couple weeks ago, when Joe Christensen first reported that the Mets had made the offer. When breaking down the players, I noted that I'm higher on Gomez than most, but that he will need to overcome his alarming plate discipline issues and gain some power to develop into a solid major-league starter. Gomez is a superb athlete with the ability to steal 60+ stolen bases and he has the tools to become an excellent defender in center field with more experience. He could be a star, but he has a long way to go. He was overwhelmed in the majors last year and would likely start this season in Rochester.

I imagine that the Twins view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could eventually transform into a Santana-type talent. At age 18, he has already developed a plus change-up, which will likely become more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. But there are major concerns. His breaking pitches aren't strong, he's already experienced some shoulder issues, and he still doesn't turn 19 until April, which makes him fairly difficult project. Scouts view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could develop into a star in the major leagues, but he has so many hurdles yet to overcome before that point that it's very difficult to factor him into the Twins' plans, short-term or long-term.

The other two pitchers in the deal, Mulvey and Humber, don't project as anything more than middle-of-the-rotation starters, but then again they also seem like the types of players that could end up surprising us, given the Twins' history. Mulvey is probably being underrated by some -- he has had success at each stop in the minors and reached Triple-A last year in just his first professional season. Unfortunately, it's difficult to get excited about him because he lacks a dominating arsenal. Humber was a terrific pitcher in college and a first-round draft pick, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005 and has been unspectacular since then. Humber does know how to pitch, however, and he's a guy I could see making a name for himself in the Twins' bullpen.

In order for this deal to really work out for the Twins, Gomez and Guerra need to take some significant strides and make good on their considerable potential. Mulvey and Humber aren't likely to separate themselves from the numerous solid pitching prospects already littering the Twins' system, but if they can, it would certainly be an added bonus and would take the heat off of Smith in what appears to be a situation that could have been handled a lot better. The odds aren't necessarily stacked against these four players becoming productive contributors to the Twins, but the fact that the package lacks a relative sure bet like Hughes or Ellsbury, or even Martinez or Jon Lester, makes the swap a rather disappointing one from the Twins' standpoint. Smith has traded an exclamation point for several question marks, and in dealing Santana he has also likely mortgaged the Twins' chances of competing in 2008 with an eye toward the future. Time will tell whether the gamble pays off, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Update: Santana to the Mets

Sorry to be a little late on posting this. Many sources are reporting that the Twins and Mets have agreed to a trade that will send two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets in return for a package of four prospects. That package includes outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The deal is reportedly dependent on the Mets negotiating a contract extension with Santana.

It's awfully tough to feel remotely positive about this trade as a Twins fan. Full analysis tomorrow.

Keeping Everyone Happy

Following the announcement of the Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer contracts on Friday afternoon, Aaron Gleeman posted an analysis on his blog that was -- judging by the reaction in his comments section -- perceived as a rather negative take on the deals. Gleeman's argument is that the $104 million that the team has collectively committed to the two players is quite risky when you take into account that neither player has proven that he can consistently provide more than slightly above-average production for his position. Gleeman did note that keeping relatively young and talented players in Minnesota is "obviously a positive thing," and I doubt he intended for his analysis come off as negative as many people took it, but I think it's fair to say that he is less than thrilled with the contracts.

As usual, Gleeman's analysis is accurate, and I agree with the core of his argument. On multiple occasions here, I have labeled Cuddyer as a fairly mediocre right fielder (which has often raised some debate), and Morneau's hitting line last year was pretty much in line with his career line, which is nothing special for a first baseman. (On an aside, I am fairly confident that Morneau will be a significantly above-average hitter over the life of his contract -- in his case I think it is fair to put more stock into the past two seasons while overlooking his atrocious 2005 campaign to some degree.)

With all that being said, I think that the scope of Gleeman's analysis was a bit narrow. Looking strictly at the statistics and the Twins' payroll situation, it's fairly easy to view these signings as a potentially dangerous risk that may have not been overly savvy. Yet, aside from simply locking up two young players who can hit, these signings accomplish a pair of other important tasks: they please fans and they please players. Those might seem like ambiguous and perhaps unimportant goals, and they're not easily analyzed because they are difficult to qualify, but I think they are important, particularly considering the Twins' current situation.

Just as the construction on a new stadium in downtown Minneapolis starts to hit its stride, the Twins are saying goodbye to some of their most popular players. This offseason, the Twins have parted ways with Torii Hunter, and now appear to be on the verge of dealing Johan Santana. Both of these decisions came about due to money, and with the new stadium being put in place and the revenue in Major League Baseball rising, fans can easily get a bad message. Bill Smith and the Twins felt that they needed to make a statement and show that this team is willing to spend money and compete, and so they did so by signing a few core players to some fairly large contracts. Is there risk associated with these contracts? Naturally, but during his tenure as general manager Smith has not shown a major aversion to risk, which is something I respect.

Letting a fan favorite who was the team's best hitter last year walk in free agency is a significant risk, but the Twins seemingly made little effort to re-sign Hunter. Trading the team's best young healthy pitcher for a toolsy but unproven 22-year-old outfielder is a significant risk, but Smith dealt Matt Garza for Delmon Young. And signing a first-baseman who is coming off a relatively mediocre campaign to the largest contract in team history is a significant risk, but the Twins now owe Morneau $80 million over the next six years.

These moves have carried some risk, to be sure, but I would argue that they are necessary risks and that the upside in each of these moves has far outweighed the downside. Losing Hunter might hurt this year and perhaps next year, but I think most would agree that he will not be worth $18 million in 2011 or 2012. Young is almost certain to develop into at least a solidly above-average hitter, even if he never makes good on the Manny Ramirez comparisons. And while perhaps Morneau's true self is not the MVP-caliber hitter he was in 2006, he is a great bet to provide above-average production and very good power to the middle of this lineup over the next six years. That's worth a lot in a lineup that lacks punch and an organization that has very little on the horizon in terms of promising power hitters. In his article, Gleeman rightfully notes that it shouldn't be overly difficult to identify inexpensive players that can provide solid production at power-hitting positions through various means, but it cannot be taken for granted that the Twins simply have not been able to do this. Having a guy like Morneau locked up is important for that reason.

Cuddyer's contract is reasonable, in terms of years and cost, and I think that's a pretty difficult contract to criticize. Morneau's contract is a lot larger, and that seems to be where critics are leveling most of their concern. Over the last four years of the deal, Morneau will be making a significant amount of money -- $14M/yr between the 2010 and 2013 seasons. Yet, these most expensive seasons all come with the Twins' new ballpark in place, and as long as the league's revenues continue to rise and the free agent marketplace continues to escalate, there's more than a good chance that those salaries will look like a bargain by that time.

With players complaining about a lack of commitment to winning, and fans scratching their heads over an inexplicable lack of spending, the Twins needed to make a statement, and they did so with these contracts. There's risk, but it is an acceptable amount and it is not likely to cripple the team's payroll anytime soon. Whether or not they were incredibly smart, these signings illustrate a commitment to winning to players and fans that should make everybody happy.