Wrist Management

Last June, some friends and I made a baseball road trip and one of our stops was St. Louis to see the Twins play the Cardinals in a Saturday afternoon contest. It was a sweltering hot day, with a heat index well over 100 degrees, and the sweat soaking into our clothes subtracted somewhat from our enjoyment of the beautiful Busch Stadium. Perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the day, though, was watching Kevin Slowey struggle against the Cards lineup.

Slowey had entered the game on a roll, having posted a Quality Start in seven of his past eight outings while starting to look like a top-of-the-rotation stalwart. Yet, in his last turn he'd issued four walks -- most since his fourth major-league start back in 2007 -- and on this day something was clearly amiss. Slowey, who typically places all his pitches with exceptional precision, was missing his spots often and offering up far too many hittable pitches. He needed 58 pitches to get through three innings, during which he allowed six hits, including a pair of homers to Albert Pujols. Ron Gardenhire did not send Slowey out for the fourth. The right-hander would go on to make one more start, another three-inning dud against the Tigers, and then his season was done. After an unsuccessful rehab stint, Slowey underwent wrist surgery in early August, seeking to finally solve a problem that had been bothering him since he was hit by a line drive late in the '08 season, and began planning his return for the 2009 season.

The Twins' rotation struggled to replace Slowey's production until the team traded for Carl Pavano, who essentially performed like a Slowey clone following his arrival. Now, the hope is that the Twins' rotation can flourish with both Pavano and Slowey present to complement Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and whoever ends up in the fifth slot. With a well constructed lineup and a relatively deep bullpen, the Twins seem poised for success this year but the rotation remains a concern and much depends on Slowey's ability to prove that his wrist is completely healed. Despite the lengthy recovery time, that isn't a given.

Gardenhire mentioned in January that Slowey had experienced some swelling in that right wrist during the offseason. The team, naturally, downplayed the magnitude of this concern but we all know how these things can go. Should Slowey's wrist continue to be a problem, not only would it take away one of the club's only pitchers realistically capable of blossoming a legitimate frontline starter, it could force them to lean on unproven players like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship in his stead.

If Slowey's wrist is fully healed, he's a prime candidate for a breakout year. His career MLB numbers up to this point are hardly overwhelming, but he's only 25 and is reaching the point in his career where many younger pitchers turn the corner. Slowey combines elite command with a legitimate ability to miss bats, a combination which led to incredible success during his minor-league career. If he can cut down on the hits allowed and make that recipe work a little better in the majors, there's no reason he can't build upon the success he found in 2008 and turn into one of the American League's better starting pitchers.

Spring Cleaning

Spring training is fast approaching! Plenty of analysis headed your way over the next couple weeks, but for now let's get caught up on a few notes and some housekeeping...

* Twins' pitching coach Rick Anderson recently related that Scott Baker has been tabbed as the team's Opening Day starter. Baker was also slated to start the season opener last year before a shoulder injury shelved him for the first couple weeks of April. He got off to a rocky start after coming off the disabled list, allowing 14 homers over his first nine starts, but settled in to allow only 14 homers in his final 24 starts while going 13-3 with a 3.67 ERA. Over the past three years, he has easily been the Twins' most consistent starter.

* I have been confident throughout the offseason that the Twins would get a Joe Mauer extension done before the start of spring training. Now, suddenly, that date is less than a week away. Will a deal be completed this week or will the Twins allow the distraction to carry over into the spring schedule?

* If you haven't ordered your copy of the Maple Street Press Twins Annual yet, I strongly recommend doing so. I recently received my copy and have read it front-to-back. The magazine features of great content from an amazing lineup of writers. At just $12.99, you won't be disappointed.

* Many folks have been calling for some sort of gathering/tweet-up amongst Twins fans and bloggers. Now, those calls have been answered. Majors in Apple Valley has kindly offered to host the first TwinsCentric Viewing Party on Saturday, March 13 during the Twins' televised exhibition game against the Phillies. John Bonnes, Parker Hageman, Seth Stohs and myself will be overseeing the event, which will feature specialized food/drink specials, giveaways and much more. All are welcome. I'm sure I'll be posting reminders as the date nears, but if you're interested in getting together with some like-minded fanatics and checking out some March baseball, make sure to set the date aside on your calendar.

Distinctly Punto

There are a lot of things that can be said about Nick Punto. (And today, I'm sure a lot of things will be said.) But one undeniable truth is that he plays the game about as hard as anyone in the league. Type his name into a Google image search and you'll find picture after picture of him diving face-first into a base, falling over after fielding a ball and making an off-balance throw while fully horizontal, or sliding hard into a base to break up a double play. A grimace routinely adorns his face in these photos as he exerts his full energy to make things happen on the field. At times this wreckless style has played against Punto -- unnecessary slides into first base and a lengthy history of injuries come to mind -- but it's hard not to respect a guy who is seeking to get the most out of his relatively limited skill set and help the team win at all costs.

I've had an up-and-down relationship with Punto, to be sure. I was one of his most staunch defenders early on, routinely arguing with folks over at SBG and other places about his potential value to the club, and I felt vindicated after he took over third base duties from Tony Batista in 2006 and pieced together a very strong campaign while helping push the Twins to a postseason berth. Of course, Punto followed up that season with one of the worst offensive showings in major-league history in 2007, causing him to wear thin with most Twins fans, including myself. Many have never forgiven him for that brutal season, and over the past two years I've seen more vitriol directed toward Punto than any other player from local fans.

To me, Punto is what he is at this point: a versatile player who can provide a lot of value to a club if utilized correctly but who is stretched in an everyday role. Too often, Ron Gardenhire has struggled to find the proper role for Punto, letting his unabashed adoration for the utility man's aforementioned maximal effort cloud sound managerial judgment. At times it became incredibly painful to see Punto's name continually written into the lineup during that '07 season, and the same can be said for last year, when he posted similarly terrible offensive numbers.

But, through it all, Punto has been a stout defender around the field and a consummate teammate. When he's going good offensively, he can be a solid contributor with the bat, and recently he has evolved his plate approach and become a much more patient hitter. Punto's diminutive size and hunched batting stance provide opposing pitchers with a reduced strike zone; this combined with his willingness to watch a lot of pitches has turned Punto into something of a walk-taking machine. From July 1 to the end of the season last year, Punto walked in 15.8 percent of his plate appearances (it should go without saying that none of those walks were intentional). For comparison, Joe Mauer drew unintentional walks in 9.2 percent of his plate appearances during that same span. Given that Mauer possesses one of the league's most discerning eyes and was amidst an MVP season that had pitchers routinely trying to pitch around him, that's awfully impressive.

Punto's outstanding ability to draw free passes enabled him to post a respectable .337 on-base percentage last year despite a dreadful .228 batting average and .284 slugging percentage. If he can rebound to some degree in the latter categories this year -- as he did in 2006 and 2008 -- while maintaining his new found ability to draw walks at an excellent rate, Punto can become a quality offensive contributor and an asset to the lineup when his defense is factored in.

What's nice is that the pressure on Punto this year is exceedingly low. While he figures to draw regular starts at third base -- an offense-oriented position -- he'll be batting ninth in a lineup that looks to be pretty strong one-through-eight. The average AL No. 9 hitter batted just .245/.305/.349 last season, and that mark certainly seems achievable for Punto (albeit with a higher figure in the OBP column and a lower figure in the SLG column). Plus, Brendan Harris' presence gives the Twins a solid backup option -- which they lacked at third base in 2007 and at shortstop for much of 2009 -- and should allow Punto to move around the field and capitalize on his defensive versatility.

By no means is Punto a great player, and many teams around the league wouldn't even view him as a starter. But he has a distinct style and he plays hard, which is why I've always enjoyed watching him and why I've been in his corner more than most folks during his tenure with the Twins. It's very possible that he'll break his even/odd year trend and put forth another dud offensive season this year, but there are encouraging trends to be drawn from his second half last season. With his strong glovework and his patient plate approach, he seems poised to be a valuable contributor to this team even if his offensive game doesn't return to the level it was at in '06 and '08. And if it does return to that level, fans should have no trouble forgiving that disastrous 2007 campaign, or his final gaffe last October that left fans with a sour taste in their mouths:

For better or for worse, Nick Punto will be throwing his body around and doing all he can to help the team win this season. Just as he always has.

Sizing Up Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn chose the right time to put together his best stretch of baseball last season. In his final four regular-season starts, he went 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and dazzling 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, leading the Twins to a 4-0 record and helping propel them to a postseason berth. He added another tremendous outing against the Yankees in the ALDS, helping cement his reputation as a big-game pitcher and sending Twins fans into the offseason with a very favorable impression of his game.

The outstanding clutch performance down the stretch helped fans forget about the rough patch that had preceded it. In the 11 games prior, Blackburn had gone 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA. Opponents hit .356 against him during that span, pounding 13 homers in 55 innings. The ugly string of games included one in which Blackburn helped blow a 10-run lead against the Athletics -- perhaps the year's most painful game -- and several others in which he lasted only a few innings and gave his team almost no chance to win. At times during these grueling couple of months, Blackburn seemed downright incapable of getting major-league hitters out.

As he has often done during his time with the Twins, Blackburn bounced back from this troubling stretch and made the adjustments necessary to get back on track. But his brutal run following the All Star break served as a reminder of the fickle nature of pitchers who fall into Blackburn's mold: low-strikeout, low-walk hurlers who allow a great deal of contact. Since Blackburn doesn't overpower hitters, he relies on the balls they hit off of him being converted into outs. And since he doesn't induce ground balls at an overwhelmingly high rate, his control over what happens with balls in play is limited.

It wasn't long ago that the Twins had a pitcher similar to Blackburn manning their rotation. It might be tough to remember at this point, but early in his time with the Twins Carlos Silva was indeed the same type of effective strike-throwing righty who relied on a sinking fastball to induce weak contact. Like Blackburn, Silva tended to allow a lot of hits, but his ability to limit walks and homers while drawing the occasional double play enabled him to be a successful pitcher during his first couple years in the Twins' rotation. In fact, comparing Silva's first two years with the Twins to Blackburn's two years in the rotation helps illustrate the similar styles:

Silva, 2004/05: 23-16, 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, .301 BAA
Blackburn, 2008/09: 22-22, 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, .291 BAA

Of course, we all know what happened to Silva in his third year with the Twins. He imploded, posting a 5.94 ERA while coughing up 38 home runs in 180 1/3 innings of work. Silva followed up that disastrous campaign with another solid season in '07 before signing a lucrative four-year deal with the Mariners, which ended up being an utter disaster for Seattle as Silva quickly ceased to be even remotely usable.

To be perfectly clear, this post is not meant to suggest that I expect Blackburn to meet the same fate as Silva. Plenty of pitchers have found prolonged success while posting middling strikeout rates and inducing grounders around 45 percent of the time (Joe Blanton is a good example). Furthermore, Blackburn is a good pitcher; he has put together three consecutive impressive seasons and has demonstrated that he can overcome his lack of overpowering stuff by making adjustments while pitching aggressively and fearlessly against big-league lineups.

But, Blackburn's post-break slump last year, along with Silva's 2006, should serve as a reminder that pitchers in this mold tread a rather thin line and don't have a whole lot of margin for error. If something is even slightly off, major-league hitters will take full advantage.

The Twins currently sport a solid rotation one-through-five, but they don't have much quality depth to speak of, so if Blackburn's game goes south it could mean trouble. For that reason, we'll all have to hope that the guy who takes the hill for the Twins this year is a lot more similar to that bulldog who took the team on his shoulders in the waning weeks of the 2009 season than the guy who was shelled repeatedly in the two months prior.

I think he will be.

An Offseason for the Ages

I find myself at something of a loss. It seems I've grown so accustomed to being disappointed with the frugal Twins and their aimless winters that when an offseason as exciting and well executed as this one comes along, I don't even know how to react. From trading for J.J. Hardy to re-upping Carl Pavano to signing Jim Thome and now adding Orlando Hudson, there's not one move I can take issue with. These were good, aggressive steps aimed at addressing legitimate needs.

I've written in the past about this organization's tendency to become complacent after successful seasons. Shortly after the 2009 campaign concluded, I drew a comparison between the '09 and '06 seasons, noting that the team's lack of foresight following that impressive but clearly unrepeatable 2006 season led to a disappointing finish in '07. It would have been no huge surprise to see the Twins take care of their internal business and sit back on their laurels this winter, given that they made the playoffs last year and will be getting a few key players back from injury in the upcoming season. Instead, they have aggressively sought to address areas of need while showing an uncharacteristic lack of hesitation to open the pocket book. While this is doubtlessly attributable in no small part to looser financial restrictions from the ownership thanks to the increased revenue that will come along with the new park, credit should also be given to the embattled general manager.

Bill Smith got off to a rough start in his capacity as Twins' GM. During his first offseason in the role, he traded Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for extremely underwhelming returns. He dealt for Craig Monroe and spent way too much money to employ the outfielder as a marginal bench player. He also handed out ultimately regrettable free agent contracts to Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett. I think that in some circles Smith shoulders too much of the blame for the early blunders, as he walked into an awfully tough situation, but there's no question that poor judgment was exercised by the front office on numerous occasions during his early days as head honcho.

Lately, though, Smith has been on a hot streak. Since the middle of the 2009 season, Smith has displayed a level of aggressiveness that we rarely saw during the Terry Ryan era, and the results have been strong. Midseason trades for Orlando Cabrera, Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Pavano helped propel a middling club to an improbable playoff berth, and two of those players (Rauch and Pavano) figure to be key contributors once again this season.

Now, Smith has played this offseason to damn near perfection. He snatched up Hardy, who had been widely viewed as one of the hottest trade chits on the market this offseason, before any other team really had a chance to enter the bidding. He wisely offered arbitration to Pavano, locking up a solid but injury-prone pitcher on a somewhat spendy but still low-risk one-year commitment. And perhaps most impressive in light of this organization's historical ineptitude in free agency, he slow-played the market and jumped all over opportunities to acquire Thome and Hudson at bargain prices. Those signings have been hailed by analysts as two of the best by any team this winter.

It seemed there was a good chance that the Twins were essentially done spending when they signed Thome to his deal a couple weeks ago, but my sense is that they decided to push the budget a little more than planned when the Hudson opportunity emerged and made all the sense in the world. With the payroll now hovering around $95 million (a whopping $30 million increase over last year's Opening Day mark) I suspect the Twins are finished done adding salary at this point. And that's OK. The Joe Mauer contract situation still needs to be resolved -- and I think it will -- but at this point Smith has done plenty to shore up holes and satisfy this particular fan.

In the October article I linked above, I concluded with the following assessment: "Adding solid depth and filling lineup holes with adequate supporting players could go a long way toward protecting the Twins against the type of drop-off that struck that 2007 team." Smith's moves this winter have done just that, and as a result, this is shaping up to be one of the best offseasons in the history of the franchise. With a new stadium set to open and a roster that features several superstar core players amidst their primes, the timing could not be better.

Homing In On Hudson

I spent plenty of time last offseason dreaming about the possibility of Orlando Hudson landing in a Twins uniform. (See here, here and here.) Hudson qualified as a Type A free agent and the Twins have historically coveted their draft picks, so it didn't surprise me to see the team express little public interest in the second baseman despite his going unsigned through the first three months of the offseason. When Hudson ultimately inked a one-year deal with the Dodgers that guaranteed only $3.4 million -- an incredible bargain -- I let out a frustrated sigh but was hardly taken off-guard.

One year later, Hudson finds himself in a similar situation. Once again, he's entered the month of February without a contract and -- with few legitimate suitors -- he is coming to terms with the reality that he won't be getting the type of contract he'd hoped for.

That is unfortunate news for Hudson, who has been victimized by a tough free agent market over the past couple winters. But it's potentially very good news for the Twins, who now actually appear to be showing interest in signing him. Bill Smith and Co. have been quiet on the Hudson front for most of the offseason, but recent reports have been connecting the free agent with the Twins more frequently, and FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported through one of his sources today that the team's pursuit of Hudson has "intensified."

This is excellent news, because Hudson makes as much sense for the Twins this year as he did last year, if not more. The lineup is well constructed but clearly lacking one key piece: a hitter who can slide into the No. 2 spot between Denard Span and Joe Mauer to provide the bat-handling capabilities that Ron Gardenhire requires of a player in that role while also providing enough offensive production to merit such a high spot in the batting order. Hudson, a switch-hitter with a .282/.357/.431 career hitting line (which he basically matched last year), reaches base enough to be an asset in the two-hole and sprinkles in some power as well. Additionally, he was used in the small-ball capacity more than ever with the Dodgers last year, setting a career high with nine sacrifice hits.

Hudson is no longer the defender that his trophy case and its four Gold Glove Awards would suggest that he is, but he's more than competent at second base. His addition would solidify the Twins' infield, giving them three quality full-time starters and allowing Nick Punto to return to the super-utility role he's best suited for while also splitting time with Brendan Harris at third.

Adding Hudson is almost a no-brainer from a competitive standpoint, so really this all comes down to dollars and cents. The Twins have stretched their budget thin already and Joe Christensen opined earlier this week that the Twins would not spend even $3 million on the second baseman. Yet, Hudson's options are running low and multiple reports have his choices narrowed down to Washington and Minnesota. If the Twins are willing to match Washington's offer (or come close) and Hudson is forced to choose between playing for the Nationals, who won an MLB-low 59 games last year and won't come close to sniffing the playoffs this year, or the Twins, who made the playoffs last year and will be favored by many to return this year while playing in a brand new stadium, it's hard to imagine he'd opt for the Nats. Then again, there's no way of knowing right now whether the Twins are willing to offer the same deal, or whether Hudson has some particular aversion to playing here (Christensen mentioned in another blog entry that he'd "been told Hudson had little interest in the Twins in the past").

At this stage it's unclear what will happen with the Twins and Hudson. But reading multiple reports that the team is finally showing serious public interest in him qualifies as a very encouraging sign. I've coveted Hudson for a long time, and right now he looks like the potential missing piece for a club that seems poised to make a deep run this season. Here's hoping that Smith and the Twins realize this and show some willingness to stretch the budget a little bit accordingly.

The Future of Casilla

Earlier this week, the Twins removed infielder Steve Tolleson from the 40-man roster to make room for the recently acquired Jim Thome. Tolleson, who grabbed the 10th spot on my list of the Top 10 Twins prospects a year ago, has seen his prospect status drop rapidly over the past 12 months. Last year was sort of a make-or-break season, as he was 25 years old and reaching the point where he needed to make a name for himself at the highest level of the minors. Coming off a 2008 campaign in which he'd posted an excellent .300/.382/.466 line at Class-AA New Britain, Tolleson seemed poised to do just that, but instead he went on to hit just .266/.340/.380 between Double-A and Triple-A. Now 26, Tolleson will look to catch on with the A's, who claimed him off waivers from the Twins.

Losing Tolleson is hardly devastating. While I probably liked him more than most, borderline major-league infielders of his ilk are none too difficult to come by. Speaking of borderline major-league infielders, let's talk about a guy who survived this particular cut but remains on tenuous ground in the Twins organization: Alexi Casilla.

At one point, Casilla was the heir apparent at second base for the Twins. Having been acquired from the Angels in the J.C. Romero trade, Casilla hit .318/.385/.398 and went 50-for-60 on stolen base attempts between Single-A and Double-A during the 2006 season, his first as a member of the Twins organization. Just 22 years old, Casilla was establishing himself as a top-of-the-lineup presence who could eventually step in to replace the rapidly aging veteran Luis Castillo.

The Twins gave Casilla that chance midway through the 2007 season, when they traded Castillo at the deadline and handed Casilla the everyday gig at second. Unfortunately, Casilla failed to seize the opportunity, batting .219 with only eight walks and five extra-base hits in 159 plate appearances from July 31 to the end of the year.

The 2008 season represented a rebound for Casilla, as he shook off a slow start and performed well for the Twins when he was called up in May out of roster-depleted desperation. Casilla's .313/.351/.424 hitting line over his first 62 games after being called up that season restored the organization's faith in him, but he was derailed by a wrist injury in July that cost him a month and saw him bat just .225 the rest of the way after he returned in late August.

The late struggles in '08 unfortunately carried forth into 2009, where Casilla hit just .202/.280/.259 -- essentially a repeat of his brutal 2007 campaign. Furthermore, Casilla no longer has age on his side, as he'll turn 26 this August. The Twins are also running out of ways to keep him around, since he's out of options and the club is already going to be short on roster spots now with Thome's addition.

If he could live up to his potential, Casilla is precisely the kind of guy Ron Gardenhire would like to have manning second base. He is viewed as a strong defender (although he scores very poorly on the UZR metric) and fits Gardy's mold as a No. 2 hitter with his speed and bunting proficiency. I suspect that fact -- combined with his impressive work as a younger player in the low minors -- is why he continues to hang around. Yet, unless Casilla has an explosive spring, it's difficult to see how the Twins will justify keeping him. He has already fumbled away multiple opportunities to grasp a starting gig, and seeing as how he lacks Matt Tolbert's versatility (namely the proven ability to play third base), it's tough to see him winning the back-up infielder job if there is only one available. Even if Casilla sneaks onto the roster, the Twins aren't likely to exercise a lot of patience with him given his inability to show any meaningful, sustained progress over the 900 plate appearances he has already amassed at the major-league level.

If he could come anywhere close to matching his .298/.371/.375 minor-league line at the big-league level, Casilla could yet transform into a valuable contributor for the Twins. But the odds of that happening have grown increasingly slim as he has continued to fail in his auditions with the big-league club. As it stands, Casilla is a 25-year-old infielder with a .244 career average, a complete lack of power and a lower major-league walk rate than Brendan Harris, who no one would mistake for a prototypical table-setter. It's not hard to see why the Twins have been patient with Casilla up to this point in his career, but given that they're clearly trying to make their push, and given that his lack of options is forcing their hand, can they really afford to remain patient any longer?

False Alarm, Very Real Hope

Citing a source close to the situation, WCCO's Mark Rosen reported yesterday that the Twins and Joe Mauer had come to agreement on a 10-year contract, with the financial terms undisclosed. The rumor hit the Internet and predictably spread like wildfire; the phrase "Twins & Joe Mauer" had become a trending topic on Twitter within minutes of the first report I saw. This, of course, led numerous other baseball reporters to check in with their own Twins-related sources, who unanimously declared that Rosen's report was not in fact accurate and no deal was officially in place.

Not surprising. The report seemed a little odd, mainly due to the length. I was told by some that I was stretching it when I predicted that the Twins would strike an eight-year deal with Mauer this winter. A 10-year contract would not only be unprecedented in Minnesota Twins history, it would be pretty close to unprecedented in baseball history. Only two players have ever signed deals of such an exorbitant length, and they're both currently on the Yankees' payroll. Considering his youth, his talent and his extraordinary list of accomplishments already, it would hardly be absurd for Mauer to join Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter as the only players to ever receive decade-long baseball contracts, but for the Twins to be the team handing out such a massive pact? Tough to imagine.

Nevertheless, yesterday proved a promising one for Twins fans. That's because even though multiple reporters shot down Rosen's report after checking in with their own team sources, the denials consistently came with caveats that a deal is close to being done, or that team officials are confident a deal would get done. The Twins have a massive PR department in place; if the organization was not completely confident this extension was going to get done -- and soon -- they would be trying harder to downplay expectations of fans. (Think back to Torii Hunter and Johan Santana.) I've seen no indication that they're trying to do this.

Even if a deal didn't become official yesterday, I find myself more confident that the Twins will announce an extension within the next few weeks and that Mauer's future here in Minnesota will be ensured.

Upcoming Roster Decisions

Prior to Tuesday's Jim Thome signing, this might have been a good guess at how the Twins' 25-man roster will break down coming out of spring training this year: five starters, seven relievers, nine starting position players, four bench players. That's how Ron Gardenhire rolled out of spring training last year, and considering his professed affinity for a deep bullpen, it's how we imagine he'd have liked to roll again this year.

Yet, the addition of Thome changes the game a bit. For as much as I like the move, there's no denying that Thome offers extremely limited flexibility as a bench player. He truly can't play in the field (he's started a total of four games at first base over the past four years) and he's one of the slowest runners in baseball. Thome's utility will purely be as a hitter, which means that Gardenhire is going to have to strategize around him at times, using replacement fielders and pinch runners at a high rate.

This might force the Twins to go with a five-man bench and a six-man bullpen. That'd be less than ideal, since it would leave the Twins without much in the way of a mop-up man or long reliever. Of the six guys who can be considered locks for bullpen spots, only Clay Condrey could be viewed as a candidate for that role, and he's pretty borderline given his history.

Originally, the plan for the Twins was seemingly to place the one of the odd men out of the race for the fifth spot in the rotation -- which appears to be shaping up between Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins -- in that last bullpen spot as a guy who could come in and throw several innings should a starter's day end early. This takes away that option. If they want to have that starter-built pitcher in the bullpen to soak up innings, either the Twins will deal one of their current short-outing relievers (which still strikes me as a fairly strong possibility) or they will go with a four-man bench.

Let's explore that latter option. A four-man bench would almost certainly consist of Thome, a back-up infielder, a back-up outfielder and a back-up catcher. Presuming that Brendan Harris is the starter at third base, this leaves the infield spot up for grabs between Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla, both of whom are out of options. There's no clear candidate for the fourth outfielder spot, but since it would have to be someone who can man center, Jason Pridie stands out as the only suitable internal candidate at this point. Meanwhile, the second catcher job would go to either Drew Butera or Jose Morales -- likely Butera at the start of the season due to Morales' recent surgery.

As you can see here, some decisions will have to be made in the near future to whittle the roster down to 25. With both Casilla and Tolbert out of options, one of those guys is almost certainly going to have to go should the Twins opt for a seven-man bullpen. If the Twins sign another player to start at second or third, the roster crunch becomes all the more tricky, which is another reason I doubt we'll see another signing to shore up the infield. If the Twins decide to go forward with a six-man bullpen, I have to imagine we'd be seeing some sort of move to change the reliever alignment, because I can't see anyone of the Nathan/Guerrier/Rauch/Mijares/Crain group being stretched out to pitch long outings and it would be very uncharacteristic of the Twins to carry only one pitcher who can serve in long relief (not to mention only one lefty reliever). This is the main reason I didn't expect Crain to be tendered a contract -- he's a one-inning righty set-up guy, but not quite as reliable as Guerrier or Rauch (or a healthy Neshek for that matter). I think Crain is a nice pitcher and I'm optimistic about his chances for this year, but he'll be occupying a valuable roster spot and sucking up $2 million of payroll.

So, might Crain or another reliever be moved? Will the Twins seek to trade Casilla or Tolbert so one of them isn't lost for nothing this spring? And what about Perkins? Is the team still looking to deal him, as they reported were earlier this offseason?

These are questions to keep in mind as we move forward with only three weeks left before pitchers and catchers report.

Thome, the Twins and Free Agency

With the month of January nearing it's end and the Twins still quiet on the free agent front, many fans have been getting itchy. The team seems well poised to make a run this season, but there are a few holes remaining that many would like to see addressed through external avenues. The team's reported $5 million offer to Jarrod Washburn earlier in the offseason seemed to signal that there is some wiggle room left on the 2010 budget, so fans have been hankering for a big splash in free agency. The splash came yesterday, but it wasn't exactly a cannon ball.

The two remaining free agents who have garnered the most discussion as potential solutions to the Twins' infield opening are Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez. Both are quality hitters who play second base and seem like logical fits given the team's needs. Yet, both of these players seem to be seeking multi-year deals and given that they are both relatively young and coming off strong seasons, it seems reasonable to believe that both might eventually get their wish. But it almost certainly won't be with the Twins.

Right or wrong, the Twins have made clear over the years that they don't view free agency as a viable way to build a team. Their dabbling in free agency has been almost exclusively restricted to low-cost one-year deals with little upside, and the results have been predictably pitiful. Looking back through the team's free agent signings over the past several years, from Adam Everett to Livan Hernandez to Sidney Ponson to Ramon Ortiz to Rondell White and so forth, we repeatedly find players who performed so poorly that they didn't last through the entire year with the club -- at least not in the capacity they were signed to fill. Only once over this span have the Twins extended a multi-year deal to an external free agent. It was Mike Lamb, and considering the disastrous results of that experiment (Lamb was so bad the Twins had to cut him in the first year of his deal and eat nearly his entire salary the second year), it's not likely to have warmed the organization up on the idea.

Now, granted, the Twins are in a better position financially than they have been in the past. But I still can't envision them offering multi-year contracts to any free agents, particularly considering how murky the payroll situation becomes in 2011. If either Hudson or Lopez eventually becomes more open to a one-year deal, it's possible that the Twins would pursue one of them, but plenty of teams will be bidding for those guys if all it takes is a single-year commitment.

That's why Jim Thome, who signed with the Twins yesterday on a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives, was a far more realistic target. Is he as appealing as an everyday second baseman like Hudson or Lopez? Of course not, which I suspect explains a lot of fans' lukewarm reactions to the signing. But Thome will help the Twins. He'll provide a quality veteran bat off the bench that the roster had been lacking, and if used optimally he can frequently start at DH against right-handed pitchers, with Jason Kubel sliding to left field. Thome, 39, might be long in the tooth and incapable of playing defense anywhere on the field, but he was still a productive hitter last year and he has a 1043 career OPS against right-handed pitchers. Plus, he'll be a threat to come off the bench and hit the ball out of the park; the Twins currently have no one that fits that mold. In a division that features some of the American League's best right-handed pitchers (Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Zack Greinke, Rick Porcello, Gavin Floyd and Max Scherzer, just to name a few) and also features all right-handed closers, Thome will have plenty of chances to make a serious impact.

At the price the Twins got him, this signing was a no-brainer. It's a great addition and while he might not be the everyday player a lot of people were hoping to add, he's a Hall of Fame player who still seems to have something left in the tank.

As for Hudson and Lopez, I don't expect the Twins to make a serious play for either one of them unless we get to mid-February and one of them essentially falls in Smith's lap, much like what happened with Joe Crede a year ago.

More likely is that Smith simply waits for Crede himself to fall into his lap again.

Announcing the MSP 2010 Twins Annual!

As most of you are aware, I teamed up last year with John Bonnes, Parker Hageman and Seth Stohs to form TwinsCentric, a group of writers dedicated to producing specialized premium content for adamant Twins fans. Thus far, we have put out two publications: the Trade Deadline Primer last July and the Offseason GM Handbook in October. Both of these releases were met with strong sales and plenty of wonderful feedback; for that were are infinitelty appreciative.

Today I am pleased to announce our latest venture, the Maple Street Press 2010 Minnesota Twins Annual. This will be our most expansive effort yet, as our partnership with Maple Street has allowed us to bring in a broad range of writers and has put the design phase into the hands of talented professionals. The MSP 2010 Twins Annual will be a thick, hard-copy magazine packed with all sorts of great content previewing the Twins' 2010 season. Working with an experienced, large-scale publisher in Maple Street also means that the magazine will be less expensive (this one retails for only $12.99, whereas the hard copy of the Offseason GM Handbook went for $21.99) and available on newsstands as well as via mail order.

Tentative cover.

The magazine will cater to the tastes of the casual and hardcore fan alike. Articles will cover the Twins from a multitude of different angles, with some delving into advanced statistics and others providing more traditional analysis. You'll find player profiles, prospects rankings, position-by-position breakdowns of the Twins' organizational depth, extensive coverage of Target Field, a lengthy interview with Ron Gardenhire, historical narratives on past Twins seasons and tons more. The list of contributing writers is vast, consisting of veteran journalists, respected authors and of course plenty of familiar names from the Twins blogosphere.

We're really excited about this publication, and I know its contents will appeal to Twins fans of all stripes. It's set for release in early March, but you can pre-order your copy here. I'll pass along more information as the release nears. Thanks, once again, to everyone who has supported TwinsCentric and Twins blogging/writing in general.

Cost Relief

Now that we've learned the concrete salary figures for 2010's arbitration-eligible Twins players, we have a more clear picture of how the team's payroll will shape up this year. More specifically, we now know how much the Twins will be spending on the six relievers who can reasonably considered locks for the bullpen. It's a hefty amount:

Joe Nathan: $11.25M
Matt Guerrier: $3.15M
Jon Rauch: $2.9M
Jesse Crain: $2M
Clay Condrey: $900K
Jose Mijares: $450K

TOTAL: $20.65M

So the Twins will be spending more than $20 million on relief pitchers, and that's before we even include a seventh reliever who is likely to round out to the group. If Francisco Liriano takes that spot -- which seems a reasonable guess at this point -- the bullpen's price tag will rise over $22M. That represents a marked increase over last year's Opening Day bullpen budget, which was around $17 million.

The bullpen is obviously an important unit for a ballclub and it's good to see the Twins pumping resources into improving this part of the roster after some shaky times over the past few years, but with raises coming across the rest of the roster over the next couple years, you can bet one of Bill Smith's top priorities will be cutting costs in this department. It just probably isn't feasible to continue paying millions of dollars to nearly every member of the bullpen, which is a big reason many people were viewing Crain (who is likely to be the team's fifth option out of the 'pen this year) as a non-tender candidate.

What does this mean? It means that the organization will be counting on guys like Anthony Slama, Rob Delaney and Alex Burnett to take strides forward this year and establish themselves as legitimate options to take over spots as soon as next year. Barring a trade, Nathan will stick around through 2011 or 2012 and continue to command a high salary, but by next year we might see him supplemented by low-cost young players like the ones mentioned above -- along with Neshek and Mijares -- while the expensive veterans such as Rauch, Guerrier and Crain move on.

This would give the Twins a great deal more flexibility to spend on other areas, namely the rotation, which figures to get significantly more expensive over the next several years. And so, the progression of the organization's closest relief prospects will absolutely be worth monitoring over the course of the season.

Who You Calling Crazy?

Earlier today, La Velle E. Neal III had a post on his blog detailing the current status of the Glen Perkins situation. This is a hot topic, because Perkins entered the offseason as one of the Twins' most viable trade candidates given his repeated run-ins with the front office during the past season, but there hasn't been much indication that the left-hander is drawing a lot of interest.

In his post, Neal references trade talks that the Twins had with the Padres earlier this winter involving Perkins and third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. Neal notes that the Padres were looking for more than Perkins as a return, and credits the Twins for backing off. He then goes on to make a couple of rather befuddling statements.

First: "Perkins and Kouzmanoff are similar players in that they are still looking for their breakthrough season."

I guess that's technically true. Neither Perkins nor Kouzmanoff has had a truly great season as of yet, despite the fact that both were highly regarded as prospects. However, when looking at the total body of work from both players it's easy to see that Kouz is far more accomplished. In three seasons since becoming a full-time player, he has posted a .263/.309/.436 hitting line; while that doesn't seem particularly impressive at first glance, one must note that he's doing his hitting in the league's most pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Diego. OPS+, which accounts for park effects, puts Kouzmanoff at 103 over that span -- and he's been consistent, with marks of 103, 100 and 100 over the past three years, respectively. Since an OPS+ of 100 is considered average, that puts Kouz as an average to above-average hitter in each of the past three seasons. Once his quality defense is factored in, we find that Kouzmanoff has been a pretty darn good player during his three years as a starter with the Padres.

Conversely, Perkins has a had a rather mucky major-league career thus far. After compiling a handful of relief appearances during the 2006 and 2007 seasons, Perkins joined the Twins rotation in 2008. In two seasons as a starter with the Twins, he has amassed a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 247 1/3 innings. Using ERA+, which is essentially the pitcher's version of the OPS+ metric we used for Kouzmanoff above, Perkins comes in with an 85 mark over those two years, putting him well below average. Whereas Kouzmanoff, at his worst, has essentially been an average hitter, Perkins topped out with a 95 ERA+ in 2008.

Once you add in the fact that Perkins has a long history of injuries -- some of which remain causes for concern -- and had well publicized spats with his team's front office throughout the past season, there's little question which of the two players currently holds more value. The idea that the Padres were out of line for requesting more than Perkins in return for Kouzmanoff is pretty specious, and it's a shame that Neal is perpetuating it.

In that same vein, Neal goes on to make the following comment: "Suggestions that the Twins should have added Alexi Casilla to the deal are crazy."

You can make the argument that Perkins and Casilla is too much to give up for Kouzmanoff, but crazy?? While he's still young, Casilla holds a .244/.301/.314 hitting line over nearly 1,000 major-league plate appearances. With the exception of a strong stretch in the middle months of the 2008 season, he has not shown any ability to produce at the big-league level, and he has consistently garnered poor ratings on the defensive side. Casilla maintains some upside thanks to his quality minor-league track record, but at this point it's tough to view him as anything other than a potential utility infielder, and the Twins have plenty of those lined up. On top of everything, I'm fairly certain he's out of options, and given that there may very well be no room for him on the Twins' roster come April, unloading him for a player that can help the team this year could be something of a coup.

I'm not all that keen on Kouzmanoff. He's a low-OBP guy and the Twins are currently in need of players who can get on base. But when beat writers are indicating to fans that opposing general managers are trying to scam the Twins by asking for Perkins and Casilla in a trade, they're planting the wrong types of ideas in people's heads. From an objective standpoint, neither of those players has very much trade value at this point.

Cuddyer vs. Nathan: Who's Expendable?

The Twins' increased budget in the upcoming 2010 season has been a popular topic of conversation in many circles, and this blog has been no exception. But, as reports leak out that appealing free agents such as Orlando Hudson are seeking multi-year deals, it is pertinent to look ahead at how the team's payroll will shape up in 2011.

Travis Aune of the blog Travis Talks had a nice post earlier in the week examining this very subject. Travis lists out projected salary commitments for the 2011 season, and while he had to employ some guesswork (Joe Mauer's salary, various arbitration figures), his estimates seem reasonable. Even accounting for the subtracted salaries of Nick Punto, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Carl Pavano, who will be free agents, Travis arrives at an estimated total of $91 in commitments to 18 players. Depending on how high you believe the club's overall payroll will go next year (and Travis' estimate of $100 million seems fair), this doesn't leave a whole lot of money to fill the remaining spots on the 25-man roster.

This is most likely the reason the Twins have shied away from aggressively pursuing players like Hudson and Adrian Beltre, who clearly fit a need but are hesitant to settle for a one-year deal. The fact that the Twins were apparently willing to offer $5 million to Jarrod Washburn for this year suggests that Bill Smith is still willing to spend a bit more on the 2010 roster but is wary of the increase in commitments the following year.

If the Twins want to have a bit of financial flexibility to address holes in 2011 with something other than cheap rookies, they may need to dump salary in order to clear out some space. And as we look at the team's current contracts, there are two very obvious candidates for such a move: Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan, who will both be in the final guaranteed year of their lucrative contracts.

Cuddyer, whose '11 option was activated just after the conclusion of this past season, is scheduled to make $10.5M next year. And Nathan, who will be entering the final guaranteed year in his deal (though his does possess a $12.5M club option for 2012 with a $2 million buyout), will make $11.25M. Clearing either of those commitments from the books would create a significant amount of space to address other areas.

So now we have to ask ourselves: if it came down to it, which guy would we rather see go? I like both Cuddyer and Nathan and would prefer to have them both on the team, but if we're being realistic about finances there's no question that dealing one of them would be a logical move, particularly if they perform well this year and maintain solid trade value.

There are a number of considerations to weigh as we contemplate this decision. Which player is more valuable to the team, both on the field and off it? Which can be more easily replaced? Which will bring back more in a trade?

There really aren't any easy answers to these questions and opinions are sure to differ. As far as value, the Win Probability Added (WPA) metric suggests that Nathan has been worth an average of about 3.6 wins per season to the Twins over the past three years, whereas Cuddyer rings in at an average of 0.48 wins per season -- which was his exact figure last year. I'll note that I think WPA tends to exaggerate the value of closers, but that's a substantial gap nevertheless. Meanwhile, Wins Above Replacement pegs Nathan as having been worth 6.2 total wins over the last three years; Cuddyer 4.3. It's also worth noting that Nathan has shown a far greater ability to stay healthy.

It's difficult to quantify Cuddyer's value to the lineup overall as a threatening right-handed power hitter who can slot between Mauer and Justin Morneau, but at the same time it's difficult to quantify Nathan's value as a steady and dominant high-leverage reliever in a bullpen that has experienced its fair share of turnover and turmoil over the years.

Who's more replaceable? That question is even tougher than the last. The Twins have shown great aptitude with taking quality relievers and turning them into all-star closers over the years -- with Nathan and Eddie Guardado serving as prime examples -- but no one currently on the team looks like anything close to a slam-drunk replacement. Meanwhile, it isn't easy to find prime-aged right-handed hitters who can belt 30 homers on the cheap, although -- despite my pal Twins Geek's allusions to the contrary -- players of Cuddyer's ilk (weak defensive corner outfielders who can hit for power) are generally available at a reasonable cost. Marlon Byrd and Jack Cust are but two examples who have signed on the cheap already this offseason.

As far as trade value is concerned, that's really too sticky a topic for me to even dive into right now. Considering their price tags, only contending teams are likely to show interest in players like Nathan and Cuddyer, so the value of these two players on the trade market will likely be dictated by how many contending teams have needs at the positions they play. And again, much depends on how both players perform this year.

Cuddyer and Nathan were both key contributors to the Twins' past two AL Central title runs and are both well-liked core players. Yet, letting one of the two go after this season (or perhaps even during it, depending on the circumstances) is is an option that should at least be sitting in the back of our minds. Because even with the payroll boost that has come along with the new stadium, the Twins are headed for a tight budget in 2011 and could be in trouble if more holes emerge than the ones they've currently got.

Evaluating Rumors

Since becoming involved with the Twitter scene a few months ago, I've come to find that there are certain things I like about the service and some things I don't. One thing I really like about it is that it allows me to keep a finger on the pulse of Twins fans at large, since I follow and read the tweets of so many fans of varying age, gender and background.

Over the past few days, that pulse has been racing a bit. That's because fans have been distressed by a recent report that the Twins had made an offer to veteran starter Jarrod Washburn. There's a tendency amongst a lot of fans to hear a rumor of any sort, immediately interpret it as 100 percent true, and react accordingly. I would recommend putting any speculation you hear from a media member and blogger and putting it through the sniff test before directing anger at the Twins' front office for something they very possibly might not have done.

The initial report on Washburn, which I referenced in passing during Thursday's post, was filed by a CBS Sports writer named Scott Miller. If you recognize that name, it might be because Miller covered the Twins for the Pioneer Press back in the '90s. That fact, combined with the fact that the Twins reportedly attempted to trade for Washburn during the 2008 season and the speculation that they've been interested in him since he became a free agent this offseason, have lent credibility to this report. But, in cases like this, it's best to remain skeptical until you hear something from a source that you can truly trust.

While Miller might still have some connections with the Twins, he hasn't covered the team in over a decade. Writers on the national scene just don't have the same type of inside access to a team that our local beat writers have, and those national writers also seem to have a greater interest in concocting rumors in order to get their name out there. I'm not saying these writers for major publications are blatantly fabricating stories, but I have found that they are far more likely to write and publish a rumor based on very little actual evidence.

Some fans find it annoying that La Velle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen don't comment on their blogs about every Twins-related rumor that pops up, but I find it extremely refreshing. To me, those two seem far more discerning about which rumors actually have legs, which makes them far more trustworthy to me. I recall that during the Johan Santana frenzy during the 2007-08 offseason, Sports Illustrated scribe Jon Heyman (the genius baseball mind who helped keep Bert Blyleven out of the Hall of Fame once again this year by leaving Bert off his ballot while casting a vote for Jack Morris, employing the impeccable logic that "those who watched jack morris know they were watching a hall of famer") reported something like 600 false trade rumors involving Santana. Yet, the only writer who accurately predicted the exact trade ahead of time, to my recollection, was Christensen, who wrote about a Gomez/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra package several weeks before the actual deal went down. That earns him credibility. What has Scott Miller done to earn such trust from Twins' fans?

Incidentally, Neal did take the liberty of looking into this latest Washburn rumor, and posted on his blog yesterday that he had "spoken with several people in the organization and received NO indications that an offer has been made." I was also somewhat amused by this tidbit in Neal's piece: "And, as one person with the club told me, Brian Duensing might be better than Washburn right now." That's because I had basically said the same thing in Wednesday's post:

I'd rather settle for Brian Duensing in the fifth spot than spend several million dollars on Washburn while ignoring the team's infield needs; in fact, "settle" might not be the most appropriate word because I'm not at all convinced that Duensing will be an inferior pitcher to the 35-year-old Washburn in 2010.

I reference that comment not to gloat, but to make a simple point. When evaluating these rumors, beyond thinking about the credibility of the source, it is important to employ basic logic. In his article Miller suggested that the Twins' one-year offer to Washburn was likely for around $6 million. It has been discussed exhaustively here and in other spaces how tight the Twins are financially at this point; would it really make sense for them to spend that much money on a No. 5 starter, regardless of how much interest they've had in him in the past?

It is very possible that the Twins could end up signing Washburn. But many people are acting like it's already happened, and expending a lot of needless frustration. When you catch wind of these confounding rumors, take into account the source and actual likelihood of it before letting them ruin your day. It will prevent a lot of unnecessary stress.

Same Old Story

We've heard it all before. Ron Gardenhire says he's receiving reports that Francisco Liriano is "throwing the living fire out of the ball" down in the Domincan Winter League, adding that the left-hander's fastball has been clocked at 92-94 MPH and describing his slider as "filthy." Even as one of Liriano's most stubbornly adamant supporters, I've come to roll my eyes at reports like this by now.

Sure, the DWL statistics (21.2 IP, 0.83 ERA, 27/4 K/BB) support the notion that Liriano is throwing well. Yet, we heard similarly strong reports as Liriano initially worked back from Tommy John surgery prior to the 2008 season, and nevertheless the former phenom came out flat that April. Additionally, there were numerous occasions last year where Twins' coaches would rave about how sharp Liriano looked in his bullpen sessions only to see him come out and struggle mightily on game day.

Liriano, it seems, has become the king of the bullpen session and simulated game. The potential for him to transfer that ability onto the field is a big reason I remain in his corner, but after seeing his extreme inconsistency over the past two seasons, it's tough to build up much confidence in spite of the glowing reports from the Dominican league.

Indeed, the Twins hardly seem convinced that Liriano is the answer for the fifth spot in their rotation, as there are reports that the team has made an offer to veteran lefty Jarrod Washburn to fill that role. This seems pretty illogical to me, given the team's stretched budget and the existence of palatable options even if Liriano once again fails to bring his successful results north. For instance, I'd rather settle for Brian Duensing in the fifth spot than spend several million dollars on Washburn while ignoring the team's infield needs; in fact, "settle" might not be the most appropriate word because I'm not at all convinced that Duensing will be an inferior pitcher to the 35-year-old Washburn in 2010.

Of course, the ideal scenario would be for Liriano to return to the Twins with renewed confidence this spring after a strong showing in winter ball and lock up a spot in the rotation. Liriano's biggest issue last year was a lack of fastball command, so I don't really get too hyped up about the reports surrounding improved velocity (and considering his fastball averaged 91.7 MPH last year, it's not like 92 MPHwould be a particularly significant step up). The fact that he's been limiting walks this winter, though, is far more encouraging, and if that's a trend he can bring back to Minnesota with him then there will be plenty of reason for legitimate optimism.

For now, though, I'm going to stick to a wait-and-see approach. I've been burned too many times already.

State of the Bullpen

Last week I examined the state of the Twins' starting rotation as we move forward into the new year. Today's post will break down the relief corps.

Early on last season, it appeared that the bullpen would be one of the Twins' greatest downfalls. Arm injuries to Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser had shelved two of the team's most appealing late-inning options for the year, and the team's offseason acquisition aimed at replacing the production of these two -- Luis Ayala -- was looking like an uninspiring option at best as he struggled early on. Meanwhile, Craig Breslow, who'd been one of the team's most reliable relievers in '08, found himself waived in the middle of May after the team grew tired of his inability to put the ball over the plate.

Ultimately, though, the Twins' bullpen settled in and by the end of the year it was actually one of the league's stronger units, finishing fourth in the AL in ERA. It appears that Bill Smith will do little if anything to augment the relief corps this offseason, so by the time spring training rolls around, narrowing down the bullpen will likely be a matter of sorting through the various internal options and settling on the six or seven best candidates.

In looking ahead to the Twins bullpen for the 2010 season, there are some reasons for optimism and also some reasons for serious concern.

The greatest reason for optimism, of course, is the expected return of Neshek. The right-handed setup man missed much of the 2008 season and all of the 2009 season after suffering an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery, but by all accounts he is on track to be at full strength in time for the start of the upcoming campaign. Now, being at full strength doesn't necessarily equate to being at full effectiveness; Neshek has missed a substantial amount of time so a return to his previous form could take some time and very realistically might not happen at all. His obscure delivery, which seemingly puts additional strain on the elbow, further complicates matters. If the effects of Neshek's injury cause him to become timid in his delivery or cause him to alter his approach entirely, he'll likely need additional time to get comfortable and gain full command of his pitches.

With all that being said, anyone who watched the team during the 2006 and 2007 seasons know what a crucial contributor Neshek can be in the back end of the bullpen and he's had plenty of time to recovery from surgery. So while he shouldn't necessarily be counted on, especially early in the year, there's plenty of reason to hope he can be a useful piece for the Twins in 2010.

Looking beyond Neshek, there are a couple other hurlers who might be able to provide additional help for the Twins bullpen in the upcoming season even if Smith continues to leave that area unaddressed. Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney, two of the organization's most accomplished minor league relievers, both finished the '09 season in Triple-A, so both will be poised to step in at the major-league level at any time this year. They might even be able to compete for jobs in spring training. If either of these historically dominant right-handers -- Slama in particular -- can carry his outstanding minor-league performance to the big stage, they could serve as a serious boon to a bullpen that is currently lacking in power arms.

Yet, despite the solid potential for reinforcements, there are plenty of reasons to be worried about the bullpen as we look forward. Unlike others, I'm not particularly concerned about Joe Nathan. I think the cries of despair regarding his late-season struggles were hugely overblown; it's not remotely uncommon for hard-throwing relievers to wear down a bit late in the season and Nathan was just one of many elite closers who melted down in the October last year.

I am, however, somewhat concerned about the two men who spent much of the season setting Nathan up. Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier were both exceptional overall last year, but a closer inspection of their underlying numbers and trends leads me to wonder whether they'll be able to replicate those performances as we move forward.

Mijares saw his strong rookie campaign come to a rather discouraging close. Even beyond the well publicized drubbing he took in the clubhouse after losing his temper and causing teammate Delmon Young to get beaned in a late-season game, Mijares looked downright hittable and seemed to lack confidence on the field as the year came to a close. Moreover, his manager displayed decreased confidence in him. Ron Gardenhire showed a very quick hook with Mijares as the season winded down, allowing him to record two or fewer outs in each of his final seven appearances (Mijares had recorded at least three outs in 63 percent of his appearances prior) and the lefty was removed before recording a single out in both of his final two regular season appearances. Similarly, Mijares struggled in the postseason, yielding a key home run in Game 2 against the Yankees and walking the only batter he faced in Game 3.

There's no arguing with Mijares' overall results last year -- a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are outstanding numbers for a 24-year-old rookie -- but he finished the season with a clear lack of confidence and that could be a problem if it carries forward into next year, particularly considering his historical problems with control (both on and off the field).

Guerrier, meanwhile, possesses his own set of question marks. The righty bounced back brilliantly from a disastrous 2008 season by posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while serving as one of the league's most reliable setup men. Yet, the same concerns continue to exist surrounding his extreme usage. Guerrier led the AL in relief appearances for a second straight season last year, and while the heavy usage didn't produce the same clear negative late-season effects that it has in the past, he did cough up three homers in his final six appearances of the regular season and one wonders how his arm will hold up in the coming campaign. On top of that, Guerrier's outstanding numbers last year were buoyed by a .214 batting average on balls in play. His career average in that category is .273 and his previous career low was .250, so once his luck inevitably starts to even out it could lead to significant regression.

In general, the bullpen picture is unclear at this point. We know that, barring injury, Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain will be there. The remaining spot(s) will be up for grabs among a group that is likely to include Slama, Delaney, Bobby Keppel and whatever starters miss out on a rotation spot. All in all, that seems like a group with pretty solid upside, but with very real potential to struggle.

State of the Rotation

It goes without saying that the starting rotation was one of the most disappointing units on the Twins last season. After the upstart and inexperienced group of young hurlers had come together and helped carry the team to the brink of a postseason berth in 2008, many expected only better things in '09 as the five matured and learned from experience.

Unfortunately, things didn't go as planned. Injuries and ineffectiveness derailed the rotation this past season, and ultimately starting pitching was one of the club's biggest flaws for much of the year as the Twins struggled to stay above the .500 mark.

This big drop-off left many fans yearning for Bill Smith to make meaningful improvements to the starting pitching corps during the offseason; yet, as we prepare to flip our calendars to the new year, the Twins' GM has not made one single external addition at the position. In fact, so far all he's done is remove starting pitching depth, dealing away a potential starting option in Boof Bonser.

Nevertheless, the Twins seem relatively well positioned in the rotation as we look forward to the upcoming season. One key move that Smith did make was offering Carl Pavano arbitration. Failing to find intriguing offers on the free agent market, Pavano and his agent decided to accept the offer, thus ensuring that the August acquisition will figure into the team's plans next year.

With Pavano locked up and Kevin Slowey ready to return from a wrist injury that cost him much of his '09 season, we essentially know how the top four spots in the Twins' rotation are going to shape up:

1. Scott Baker

2. Kevin Slowey

3. Carl Pavano

4. Nick Blackburn

It's not a bad top four. Baker, Slowey and Pavano all basically fall into the same mold: strike-throwing right-handers who post respectable K-rate and are extremely stingy with walks, but will generally allow a fairly high number of hits and homers. Those are good guys to have around, and any one of them is capable of posting a sub-4 ERA, but none are particularly likely to be an ace-caliber performer. And if the hit or home run rates get out of hand for any of them, they could be in for a tough year. Of the three, Slowey likely has the greatest upside given his youth, his outstanding K/BB ratios and his spectacular minor-league track record, but he was inconsistent last year even before going down with an injury so he has much to prove. Blackburn, of course, is a high-contact middle-of-the-rotation guy who has held his own through two big-league seasons but lacks significant upside.

With those four in place, the Twins are left with one spot to fill. While it's conceivable that Smith could go out and find another starter via free agency or trade, it seems somewhat unlikely at this point. The Twins have a handful of guys who could compete for the last spot in the rotation, but given that the four already in place are all right-handed I suspect they'll look to fill that final slot with a southpaw. There are currently three main contenders: Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing.

It is widely believed that Perkins will be moved before this offseason is over, and I'm inclined to agree with that train of thought. Duensing became a crucial contributor down the stretch last year after stepping into a starting role, which likely gives him the advantage over Liriano, who struggled all year long. Of course, considering that none of the four right-handers already entrenched seem to have legitimate top-end potential (with the possible exception of Slowey), Liriano remains an intriguing option since he was throwing like an ace as recently as the second half of 2008.

Right now it seems most likely that the Twins will enter spring training with an open competition for that fifth spot. Liriano and Duensing are shaping up as the main contenders, but if Perkins is still around he'd certainly be in the mix and if the Twins decide they don't care about having a southpaw in the rotation then Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship could have a shot as well. If I had to guess right now, I'd say that Duensing will probably open the season in the rotation with Liriano in the bullpen and the rest in the minors (or another organization). But spring training is still a long ways off and there's plenty of time for Smith and the Twins to try and add more clarity to what currently looks like a jumbled picture at the bottom of the rotation.

The Waiting Game

General managers across the American League have been relatively busy reconfiguring their teams for the 2010 season. Of particular note are Brian Cashman and Jack Zduriencik, the respective GMs of the Yankees and Mariners, who have both been quite impressive up to this point in the offseason. Cashman has reinforced the roster of the defending World Series champs by bringing in Curtis Granderson and Javier Vazquez in trades that most analysts viewed as lopsided in favor of the Yankees. Meanwhile, Zduriencik has seeked to build on his team's 24-win improvement during his first year as GM by adding Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins. Earlier this week, the M's dealt underperforming former top prospect Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for Brandon League in a deal that puzzled many but that I liked given that I've long coveted League.

Meanwhile, Bill Smith and the Twins have been awfully silent. Since making a big early splash by trading Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy just a couple days after the World Series, the Twins have been relatively inactive, with the only noteworthy moves coming in the form of an arbitration offer to Carl Pavano (which was accepted) and a minor trade that sent Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a low-level pitching prospect.

Seeing rival GMs wheel and deal while Smith has remained in the shadows has irked a number of Twins fans, but the reality is that the Twins are probably playing this the right way. Despite the number of significant trades that have gone down, the free agent market has remained stagnant. Several options at positions of need -- including Felipe Lopez, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre -- are still out there, and it seems like agents and teams are waiting for a few early contracts to set the tone before they start hammering out deals. The Twins probably don't have a lot of financial flexibility left to sign additional players, and they almost certainly can't afford to meet the current demands of guys like DeRosa and Beltre. Yet, as time goes by, the prices will only drop. The same is true for potential trades.

I'm not suggesting that the Twins once again wait until late February when the only remaining option is a hobbled and desperate Joe Crede before they start seriously investigating solutions to their infield holes, but fans should show a bit more patience with the front office. Waiting is the right strategy for the time being.

Turning the Tables

Flash back two years, to the winter following the 2007 season.

Just one year removed from capturing the AL pennant, the Detroit Tigers were boldly making their move. During the winter meetings, Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a blockbuster deal with the Marlins that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Motown in return for a gaudy package of prospects highlighted by Cameron Maybin and Adam Miller. The move came just shortly after Dombrowski had acquired Edgar Renteria from the Braves for a pair of quality pitching prospects.

The Tigers were moving cheap, promising players for established commodities, and were showing little concern with the financial repercussions. A busy offseason for Dombrowski ballooned his team's payroll from $95 million in 2007 to $138 million 2008, positioning them as the highest-spending club in baseball outside of the Yankees.

Meanwhile, the Twins' 07/08 offseason consisted of trading away the league's best pitcher and letting one of their core hitters and clubhouse anchors walk. In both instances, the players were deemed too expensive for the Twins to retain on their limited budget. Despite a few second-tier free agent signings, the Twins saw their budget shrink from $71 million in '07 to $56 million in '08, dropping them into the bottom third of all MLB teams in terms of payroll.

Flash back to present. The Tigers, who fell just a game short of the playoffs this season, are amidst an epic firesale. They shipped off one of their core offensive players in Curtis Granderson and a key starter in Edwin Jackson, fresh off a breakout year. They were forced to let key contributor Placido Polanco walk and weren't even able to offer theType A free agent arbitration and collect valuable draft picks because they couldn't afford the risk of having to pay him several million dollars in 2010 should he accept. There are rumors that the Tigers still aren't done shedding salary, with names like Cabrera and Justin Verlander continuing to spring up in trade speculation.

The nation's economic downturn has hit Detroit hard, and its formerly free-spending baseball club is feeling the effects.

Things look significantly brighter here in Minnesota.

The Twins have ramped up spending recently at an unprecedented level. I wrote last week about how the organization has displayed a dramatic increase in willingness to open the wallet over the past year, whether on the international market (Miguel Angel Sano), in the draft (Kyle Gibson), on players acquired via trade mid-season (Jon Rauch/Orlando Cabrera/Carl Pavano/etc.) or offseason moves (J.J. Hardy/Pavano). In its most recent display of fiscal freedom, the Twins elected to tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players. That includes Jesse Crain, who is in his final year of arbitration and could make close to $3 million after earning $1.7 million this past season. The Twins would have had every excuse to non-tender Crain, given that he's coming off a rather unexceptional year and spending several million dollars on someone who figures to be -- at best -- the third or fourth right-handed option out of the bullpen is a luxury that in the past they've shied away from. Yet, Crain possesses solid upside for next year considering his strong finish this season (2.20 ERA in August/September) and his being almost two years removed from shoulder surgery. That he's seemingly being brought back bodes well.

The Twins' payroll is already approaching $100 million, a notion that seemed borderline absurd on Opening Day this season when that figure sat at $65 million. Even with the big increase in spending that we've already seen, the Twins still claim to have interest in signing another infielder. They also still have yet to work out a new contract for Joe Mauer, which many (including myself) believe they will do before spring training opens next year.

So, the Twins are taking on salary, spending big on international talent, going over-slot to sign draft picks, and likely are on the verge of doling out one of the biggest contracts in league history to retain their star player? All while the rest of the division is pawning off expensive stars and selling out the present for the future in order to cut costs? Is this some sort of parallel universe?

Longtime fans from around these parts can be excused for reacting with some confusion, but what we're seeing are the benefits associated with the move to a new park. I'd posit that these drastic increases may also be attributable in part to a less frugal philosophy held by ownership now that power has shifted from Carl Pohlad -- who passed away early this year -- to his sons.

Whatever the combination of causes, this new situation is a sweet one for Twins fans, and one we've never really experienced before. The Twins still fall far short of the truly big-market clubs, but they're now beginning to resemble a team that can hold its own when it comes to acquiring and retaining talent. This might not put an enormous dent in the disadvantage the Twins feel when trying to measure up to the Yankees and Red Sox of the world, but it puts them in excellent position in an AL Central division where at least three teams are pretty clearly in rebuilding mode.

Right before our eyes, we're seeing the transformation of a franchise. Long known as the division's "Little Engine That Could," the Twins are beginning to emerge as financial heavyweights in the AL Central. As the holidays approach, now seems as apt a time as any for fans to appreciate this unfamiliar feeling.

Winter Meetings Wrap-Up

The winter meetings came to a close yesterday without any meaningful activity from the Twins, which is hardly surprising. Last offseason, it took Bill Smith and Co. until February to make any significant moves, so the fact that the team has already addressed two major areas of need by trading for J.J. Hardy and locking up Carl Pavano for another season should help satisfy hot-stove hungry fans.

Despite the slew of moves that took place this week, plenty of intriguing players remain available in free agency and the Twins have been connected to several trade rumors, so there will be plenty of stuff to track in the coming weeks. With that being said, I expect a lull until at least the turn of the new year.

A few more notes to wrap up the week of winter meetings...

* After designating him for assignment earlier this week, the Twins have traded Boof Bonser to the Red Sox for a player to be named later. This is good in that the Twins would have gotten nothing in return for losing Bonser had he gone unclaimed and become a free agent this weekend, but the player they ultimately receive from Boston will likely be a low-level prospect with marginal upside.

* The Rule 5 draft took place yesterday. The Twins didn't select any players nor have any poached away in the major-league phase. Twins' farmhands Angelo Sanchez and Winston Marquez were both selected in the minor-league phase of the draft, but neither pitcher is a major loss.

* Finally, I did a Twins-related Q&A this week over at the blog SimonOnSports. You can check that out here.

Finite Resources

Even without external additions, the Twins were in line for a healthy bump in payroll next season, with newly arbitration-eligible players and those already under contract due salary increases. The acquisition of J.J. Hardy and the retainment of Carl Pavano only add to this escalating figure. As Joe Christensen noted on his blog yesterday, the Twins' 2010 payroll is already approaching $90 million, and we're not even halfway through December yet.

With these recent additions (not to mention some in-season trades that brought on extra salary), and with the Twins demonstrating an increased willingness to spend on the international market in the draft, fans might be falling into a false sense of security. The club's move to Target Field certainly jolts their ability to spend -- and that's been made clear by the aforementioned aggression in various avenues -- but it doesn't suddenly turn the Twins into a large-market team. A $90 million payroll in 2010 would already represent an increase of roughly $25 million (nearly 40 percent) over the payroll they sported on Opening Day 2009. That's pretty impressive in its own right, and I'm not sure I'd expect much more in terms of added salary.

In fact, we might already be seeing the Twins making some moves to trim salary in the face of these major increases. Yesterday, in order to make room for Pavano on the 40-man roster, the Twins elected to designate Boof Bonser for assignment. That the Twins decided on the arbitration-eligible Bonser rather than, say, the less expensive and less useful Bobby Keppel, would seem to speak volumes. Bonser, who missed the '09 season after undergoing shoulder surgery but was apparently recovered and ready to pitch in September, has been a frustrating pitcher whose results have never matched the quality of his stuff, but he'd shown promising flashes after moving to the bullpen late in 2008 and it's tough to view this move as anything other than money-driven.

I suspect that the Twins are finished addressing the rotation. There's almost certainly not enough money left to sign an established, reliable starter, and I'm guessing there will be enough suitors for the low-risk/high-reward/injury-prone breed (Rich Harden, Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, etc.) that none of them will come particularly cheap. (Although, if any of them do, the Twins have enough depth that they'd in excellent position to take a flier on one.)

Meanwhile, although at least one hole remains in the Twins' infield and several attractive options remain on the market, I'm beginning to lose faith in the notion that the Twins will actively pursue any of these options as I look over the team's financial particulars. The prices for which players like Marco Scutaro and Chone Figgins have signed thus far suggest that quality infielders like Orlando Hudson and Adrian Beltre might be had for relative bargains, but these players are still likely to cost upwards of $5 million annually and I'm just not sure the Twins have that much left to commit, particularly considering that the Joe Mauer situation still needs to be worked out.

At this point, it seems likely that the Twins will either end up snatching a bargain player like Joe Crede later in the offseason, or trading for a relatively inexpensive solution from another club (a package deal for the Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff built around Glen Perkins would seem to make a lot of sense, for instance). But if you're expecting any big splashes in the high-profile free agent market, you may be setting yourself up for disappointment.

Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Yesterday marked the deadline for Carl Pavano to decide whether to accept or decline the Twins' arbitration offer, and to my surprise he elected to accept, ensuring that the August acquisition will wear a Twins uniform once again in 2010.

Reports indicate that Pavano and his agent were seeking a multi-year deal from the Twins and other teams, but ultimately didn't get any bites. Rather than running the risk of being forced to settle for another incentive-laden deal with a low base, Pavano decided to make the one-year commitment to the Twins and will likely end up making around $7-$8 million next season.

I say I'm surprised by this outcome because Pavano signed a one-year make good deal last offseason with the Indians, and it seemed to me like he did make good. The historically injury-prone hurler racked up 200 innings without much issue while displaying elite control (his 1.76 BB/9 IP rate ranked second in the AL) and an ability to miss bats (solid 7.2 K/9 IP rate). He even finished his year by putting forth a dazzling performance on the national stage against an offensive powerhouse by holding the Yankees to two runs over seven innings in Game 3 of the ALDS.

My sense was that some pitching-starved club would view these promising signs as meriting a two-year deal, but apparently the past injury problems and the inflated ERA this past season were enough to scare away other general managers.

I have suggested in the past that the Twins bring him back on a two-year, $12 million pact. While such a deal would have likely entailed a lower annual base, retaining Pavano on a one-year commitment is preferable because his historical tendency to get hurt makes any multi-year guarantee a concerning risk.

I concluded about a month ago that "even though Pavano is merely a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter, bringing him back should be a priority." The Twins now have him locked up for next year, and he should be able to combine with Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to form a very competent 1-through-4 in the rotation. Pavano's relatively high price tag does, however, figure to limit the Twins' financial flexibility over the remainder of the offseason. We'll dig into that predicament later this week.

One Option Off the Table

Just two days after he became a no-strings-attached free agent when the Tigers declined to offer him arbitration, Placido Polanco returned to his erstwhile baseball home by signing a three-year, $18 million contract with the Phillies yesterday.

In my offseason blueprint, I suggested that the Twins sign Polanco to a two-year, $9 million deal. I'm not surprised that I underestimated his annual value (though the $6M rate he got from Philly is not all that much higher than my estimate), but I am a little surprised he got a third year. Polanco is already 33 and it seems like there's a good chance the Phillies will be overpaying him by the end of this deal, particularly if his outstanding defense doesn't hold up while he ages and transitions to regular duty at third base, a position where he has played only 20 percent of his career defensive innings.

I obviously would have liked to see Polanco sign with the Twins, but at that length it probably wouldn't have been a wise move for Bill Smith, and considering how quickly the second baseman inked with the Phillies it seems likely that he was eager to return to the town where he broke into the big leagues anyway.

Orlando Hudson and Felipe Lopez remain as attractive but likely spendy high-end options at second base. On the next tier, you still have guys like Jamey Carroll and Adam Kennedy. Of course, Adrian Beltre also remains as a potential option at third base, with Nick Punto sticking at second.

Even with a desirable option off the board in the form of Polanco, many potential solutions to the Twins' infield vacancy remain on the board. Much depends on how much they're willing to spend, and how aggressive Smith is willing to be in his pursuit. I suspect we'll start to learn more about both of those uncertainties next week when the MLB Winter Meetings kick off.

Setting Sights at Second

I was mistaken in yesterday's post when I posited that the deadline to offer arbitration to free agent eligible players fell on Monday night; it actually fell last night. As expected, the Twins did indeed offer arbitration to Type B free agent Carl Pavano, so now Pavano will have the opportunity to either except and return to the Twins on a one-year deal (likely worth around $7 million) or hit the open market. Should he decline arbitration and sign elsewhere, Pavano would net the Twins a supplemental pick in next June's draft. Either outcome is a fairly beneficial one for the Twins, and as such Bill Smith's move to acquire Pavano in August is looking like a savvy one.

Perhaps the more interesting development from yesterday's deadline, though, is that neither Placido Polanco nor Orlando Hudson were offered arbitration by their respective clubs. Both Polanco and Hudson qualified as Type A free agents, but with the Tigers and Dodgers electing not to offer arbitration, signing them will not cost a draft pick. These are both players that the Twins should be extremely interested in; they're veteran second basemen whose offensive skills make them well suited to bat second and who are very competent in the field. My offseason blueprint suggested that the Twins tab Polanco, but I'd have absolutely no problem with Hudson, who I pushed hard for last offseason.

The Twins have been awfully quiet since they traded for J.J. Hardy just after the conclusion of the World Series, but with the Winter Meetings fast approaching the time has come for Bill Smith and Co. to once again ratchet up their offseason dealings. Honing in on Polanco and Hudson should be among their very highest priorities.

Catching Up

It's been quite around these parts lately, but frankly there just hasn't been a whole lot to write about. Let's quickly catch up on a couple Twins tidbits.

* A small blurb near the bottom of Charley Walters' Sunday column in the Pioneer Press reads as follows: "It's unclear what it will take for Joe Mauer to re-sign with the Twins before he can become a free agent after next season. A little birdie says, though, that any offer for fewer than seven years won't do it."

Now, it's worth noting that historically any statement in a Walters column that is sourced to "a little birdie" has often been a baseless fabrication, but the sentiment here seems to be on track. The Twins can't reasonably afford to pay Mauer the same annual salary that a team like New York or Boston might be able to, so odds are they will have to win him over with length. I suggested in the GM Handbook that the Twins sign Mauer to an eight-year, $150 million deal, which would essentially add up to a seven-year extension since my proposed contract tears up the end of his current deal and begins next season.

That might seem like an awfully lengthy deal, particularly for a catcher, but it's worth noting that Mauer would still only be 34 such a contract expired. There are few scenarios in which I can imagine the Twins would want to let Mauer leave before he reaches that age, and even in the event that he does begin to wear down as he reaches his mid-30s, I think that's something the Twins should be willing to stomach in return for locking up a likely Hall of Fame player during his prime years at a reduced cost.

* Speaking of Mauer, I'm guessing there are a number of female fans around this fine state that are wishing this would have happened to him rather than a division rival's studly marquis player.

* Doubtlessly any Twins fans who were forced to endure Chip Caray's awful play-by-play during Game 163 and the ALDS this year will surely be pleased with this news.

* I believe that last night marked the deadline for offering arbitration to free agency eligible players, but as I write this I've not yet heard whether or not the Twins offered to Carl Pavano. My assumption is that they did, since he's a Type B free agent and the reward of receiving a supplemental draft pick should he sign elsewhere more than outweighs the risk of having to pay him around $7 million on a one-year deal (which might not even really be a bad thing).