Looking Back at 2010 Twins Predictions

Just before Opening Day each year, in a feature called "The Nicks' Picks," me and my former blogging partner Nick Mosvick lay out our predictions for the upcoming season. It's always amusing -- and often embarrassing -- to go back and review those predictions at season's end. For instance, I had the Red Sox and Cardinals squaring off in the World Series, and of course neither made the playoffs.

For the first time this year, we introduced a series of Twins-specific predictions, both because it was a logical thing to do on a Twins blog and because fellow blogger Josh Johnson campaigned to make April 2nd the universal "Twins Prediction  Day" for all writers covering the team. Today, I'll take a look back at my Twins predictions and see how they panned out, while reviewing the thought process that led to these prognostications:

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer

Certainly not a tough call after Mauer took home league MVP honors in 2009. While his season certainly didn't live up to the lofty standards set last year, Mauer was an extremely valuable contributor who was named team MVP in Seth Stohs' polling of local bloggers and personalities at season's end.

Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano

Some would argue that Carl Pavano ended up being the team's best pitcher, and there's certainly a fair case to be made there, but for my money Liriano was the most impressive starter on the team. He ranked among the league leaders in strikeouts and ground ball rate while earning a nod as the Twins' No. 1 starter in the postseason.

Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama

Well this was a big whiff. Slama got only a brief taste of the bigs and failed during that brief stint to carry over his dominant minor-league numbers, allowing four hits and five walks over 4 2/3 innings for a 7.71 ERA. Of course, few could have anticipated that Danny Valencia would have as large of an impact as he did. I suspect we'll see more of Slama next year, with several current relievers set to depart via free agency.

Twins Most Improved Player: Liriano

Liriano's transcendent performance in winter ball, coupled with the fact that he truly did not pitch as badly last year as his numbers indicated, made this an easy pick for me. Sure enough, Liriano won AL Comeback Player of the Year with a huge bounce-back campaign. Those who pegged Delmon Young in this category can also be feeling pretty good about their pick.

Bold Predictions: Jesse Crain will lead team in saves; Nick Blackburn will post 5+ ERA; J.J. Hardy will win first Gold Glove

Only the Blackburn prediction came true, but I definitely feel like I was on the right track with both of the others. Crain never got a shot at taking over closer duties, likely because of his lack of experience in that role, but he was undeniably the team's best reliever for most of the season. Meanwhile, Hardy won't be among the Gold Glove winners announced today and tomorrow since injuries limited his playing time this season, but defensive metrics do peg him as one of the American League's finest defensive shortstops in 2010, with an outstanding 8.1 UZR in 100 games at the position.

A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians, Royals

Ka-ching!

Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Slowey and Liriano stepping up, bullpen staying healthy, success at Target Field.

It's obviously debatable how much each of these things factored into the team's success, but certainly Liriano's emergence and a tremendous home record were elemental in their division title. The bullpen had a few injury issues, but most of the key players stayed strong all year and allowed the unit withstand the absence of Joe Nathan. Slowey never really pulled it together

What about you? What were your predictions before the season started? Which events did you foresee and which ones took you by surprise?

E-Z Passed

Many Twins fans took exception to the above headline, which appeared on the cover of the New York Daily News prior to the ALDS. The newspaper, known for being outrageous and controversial, was condescendingly declaring the Twins to be no challenge for the Yankees, a sentiment that seemed echo throughout the Big Apple.

As it would turn out, the arrogance was well warranted. The Twins brandished home field advantage and a $100 million payroll this time around, but the result was no different from past meetings with the Yankees: complete and utter failure.

In fact, this was Minnesota's most feeble postseason effort against the Bombers yet. In 2003 and 2004, the Twins at least managed to take a game. Last year, while they were swept, the Yankees needed extra-inning heroics and help from an umpire to win Game 2.

This year, the Yankees came into Minnesota and soundly defeated the Twins in a pair of games that held little drama. When the series went back to New York, the Yankees vanquished their dejected opponents with such ease and nonchalance that the result seemed predetermined.

We can spout off all we want about the Yankees' hex over the Twins or Ron Gardenhire's ineptitude in the postseason, but ultimately what this comes down to is a complete letdown by this team's players. These guys fought so hard all season to get to the big stage, and once they got there no one could step up and carry the load.

Francisco Liriano was among the league's most dominant starting pitchers this season. He certainly looked like it over the first five innings of Game 1. Somehow things spiraled so badly that when it was all said and done, Liriano -- who held lefty hitters to a .517 OPS this season -- was chased in the sixth inning by a two-run triple off the bat of a guy who has never hit southpaws.

Carl Pavano pitched so many brilliant games this season; he just couldn't do it when they needed him most.

Brian Duensing continually amazed us all summer long, but when push came to shove in Game 3, he was made to look like a player who did not belong in the major leagues. (Duensing threw 58 pitches in that outing; the Yankees did not swing and miss at one of them.)

Jesse Crain was, by any measure, one of the league's most dominant relievers this season, even accounting for his early-season struggles. Over the final four months, his tweaked slider was a pitch that rivaled Mariano Rivera's cutter in effectiveness. Yet, with a playoff game on the line and Mark Teixeira -- himself coming off an unremarkable season and battling wrist soreness -- at the plate, Crain left that slider hanging and it cost the Twins dearly.

Joe Mauer was a stud this season, shaking off a pedestrian first half to key the offenese with some monster production after the All-Star break. He contributed three singles in the series.

Delmon Young had a breakout campaign, becoming the chief run producer in the lineup after Justin Morneau went down in early July. He drove in 112 runs during the regular season. In this series, he drove in zero runs and managed zero extra-base hits.

Jim Thome was one of the league's most feared hitters this season. He came up with one single in 10 at-bats.

Jason Kubel has homered 69 times in the past three seasons and has delivered some of the team's biggest clutch hits during that span. He went 0-for-8 in the series and is now 2-for-29 lifetime in the postseason.

None of the role players did much of anything, but it wouldn't have made a whole lot of difference. When you get those kind of performances from your core players, you're not going to win a series against a team like New York.

I think it's hard to ignore the fact that almost none of the players mentioned above was playing at a high level as the season came to an end. Team momentum might be overrated, but when almost each and every one of your key players slumps into the end of the regular season, maybe you shouldn't be so surprised that they all come out ice cold in the playoffs.

The natural reaction for many fans is to blame the manager. After all, Gardenhire has been the one common thread among all these disappointing postseason teams. Yet, I find that almost lazy. He's proven his ability to win games, of both large and small magnitude, throughout his managerial tenure. I can't find fault much with the way he prepared the team for the playoffs nor the way he managed once they got there. It almost defies belief that so many of a good team's players can simultaneously shut down at the most important point in the season, and I'm sure Gardy's more baffled than anyone.

Maybe the visceral masses are correct. Maybe Gardenhire has a mental block when it comes to the Yankees and he lets it soak into his players. Maybe he made the wrong choice in giving Pavano a few extra days rest between his final regular-season and first postseason starts. Maybe he should have let banged up starters keep playing after the team clinched to keep them sharp. Maybe these 12 straight playoff losses really are on his shoulders.

But the manager can't go out there and complete six innings for Liriano. He can't stop Crain from leaving a high slider to Teixeira. He can't make the team's No. 3 hitter and reigning MVP deliver a danged extra-base hit in the postseason for once.

It's on the players. The teams that win in the postseason do so on the foundation of lights-out pitching performances and big hits, and in this series the Twins got neither of each, just like usual.

So ends the sixth season I've covered the Twins on my blog. During that span, I've watched the team make the playoffs three times and I still haven't had the chance to write about one single postseason victory. That's hard to swallow.

I'd say this one stings the most, but I don't know if that's true. Compared to 2006 and 2009, this club's regular season came to an anticlimactic end and the ALDS sweep by the Yankees was so quick and bereft of drama or memorable moments that it's almost like it didn't happen.

I feel a little robbed. Maybe that's why this one stings the most after all.

The Five Best Decisions of 2008

With the end of 2008 rapidly approaching, we are provided with a good opportunity to reflect on the year that was.

Amongst many fans, looking back at the '08 season brings up a wide-ranging discussion of all the things that went wrong. In a season where the Twins came just a game short of making the playoffs, there is a strong temptation to pinpoint precise mistakes that caused the team to fall just short. People will list the signings of Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, Craig Monroe and Livan Hernandez. They'll list the Johan Santana trade, and the Matt Garza trade. They'll list the team's failure to upgrade the fledgling bullpen during the season by acquiring Chad Bradford or LaTroy Hawkins. They'll list the organization's decision to leave Anthony Slama in Ft. Myers for the entire season (which was, in my mind, the single most inexplicable and inexcusable mistake committed by this club all year).

All of those criticisms are valid. But, in the spirit of the season, I'll opt instead to focus on the things that the Twins' front office did in right during Bill Smith's first year at the helm. The fact of the matter is that when a team consisting almost entirely of young, inexperienced players that was expected by almost all outside observers to be in a rebuilding phase is able to come within a game of making the playoffs, a lot of right decisions have to be made. And in the frenzy to assign blame for this team's failure to reach the postseason, I think people are too quick to overlook some of the savvy moves that even made the postseason a possibility.

Today, I'll go over what I felt were the five best decisions made by the Twins' front office during the 2008 year:

5) Cutting Mike Lamb.

Obviously, signing Lamb in the first place was a move that didn't work out. I'm not going to call it a mistake, because at the time I thought the reasoning behind the signing was sound and I still think it was. He fell apart in a manner that few could have anticipated. It's unfortunate, but it happens -- this wasn't a signing that was essentially doomed from the start like, say, Hernandez. In any case, it became abundantly clear midway through the season the Lamb simply wasn't going to get the job done as third baseman for this team. And, although the Twins still owed him $3 million for the 2009 season, they ate the cost and parted ways to make room for superior options. Say what you will, but that's an uncharacteristic move for this organization. And it was the right move. In 2007, the Twins made the mistake of bringing back Rondell White after a disastrous first year with the misguided hope that he'd rebound and fulfill the promise they had initially seen when they signed him. This time, they're not going to make that same mistake.

4) Drafting Aaron Hicks.

I think that the 2008 draft was, in general, a very good one for the Twins. They took some risks, grabbed a few players over-slot, and showed uncharacteristic aggressiveness in going after the players they wanted. But Hicks, their first overall pick, stands out to me as the best of the bunch. This was an encouraging selection, especially in light of some of the duds this organization has brought in with mid-to-high first-round picks over the past 15 years or so. The Twins nabbed Hicks, a tremendously gifted athlete and highly regarded high school prospect, with the No. 14 pick and quickly signed him. They were rewarded with a .318/.409/.491 hitting line from the 18-year-old over 45 games in the Gulf Coast League that helped silence criticism over how his bat would play in the pros. Hicks was somewhat spendy and he doesn't fill an organizational area of need (far from it), but he was the best player on the board and the Twins made the right choice. Hicks ranked as the organization's No. 1 prospect on Baseball America's postseason Top 10 list released in November.

3) Acquiring Craig Breslow.

This move doesn't get talked about much, but it has certainly turned out well. Breslow was nabbed off waivers from the Indians in late May, and went on to post a 1.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings for the Twins, emerging as one of the steadiest options out of a shaky bullpen. Breslow gave up only 24 hits, showing decent control along with an ability to miss bats. He shut down lefties and held his own against righties. It cost essentially nothing to bring him in, and now Breslow enters the 2009 season as perhaps the second-most reliable arm in the Twins bullpen.

2) The handling of Francisco Liriano.

Despite looking pretty good toward the end of spring training, Liriano did not make the Twins' Opening Day roster. Reportedly, the young pitcher wasn't terribly happy about this, so when an opening in the rotation arose in late April, the Twins called him up and gave him a shot. Liriano lasted four starts and was absolutely shelled. The Twins sent him back down to Triple-A, where he worked hard to refine his craft and showed remarkable improvement over the course of his next 15 or so starts. Eventually, he was dominating minor-league competition on a consistent basis, and -- while they may have waited a bit too long -- the Twins brought him back up to replace Hernandez in the rotation. The strong, confident Liriano was a force for the Twins over the final two months of the season, going 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 60-to-19 K/BB ratio over 11 starts and helping propel his team to a 163rd game. It seemed like an impossible notion when Liriano was being battered around in April, but he'll enter the 2009 season as a potential ace for this staff.

1) Signing Joe Nathan to a four-year contract extension.

Looking back, this seems like a no-brainer, but this was hardly the case at the time the Twins elected to hand Nathan a $47 million extension back in March. Many believed that it was a foregone conclusion Nathan would be dealt after the Twins moved Santana, and I heard plenty of arguments that the closer's value as a trade piece was much greater than his value to the Twins, especially considering that he'd be making over $10 million per year in a new contract. Personally, I was always a steadfast believer that Nathan should be retained, specifically because this bullpen contained far too many questions for his loss to be palatable. Now that Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier have all become huge question marks going forward and Nathan is the one steady right-handed rock in the Twins 'pen, the signing looks incredibly savvy. That's especially true when you consider that Nathan, one of the very best relievers in all of baseball with basically no injury history as a Twin, will be earning less annually than the inferior Francisco Rodriguez and only marginally more than the huge injury risk Kerry Wood.

A Sad End to a Spectacular Ride

People will be compelled to focus on the negatives here in the aftermath of the Twins' 2008 season. And that's understandable. Just two wins at home against the Royals in the final series of the regular season and they'd currently be gearing up for the postseason. Just one less blown lead from the bullpen during the summer months and they'd be on their way to Tampa Bay to take on the Rays. Just two runs against John Danks on Monday night and they'd have vanquished their hated AL Central foes. The Twins came so close, but came up just short. It's tough to take as a fan.

But certainly, it's not as tough to take as the 2007 season, where the team had given up hope on a playoff berth around the All-Star break, and made that clear by making salary-dump moves around the trade deadline. Nor is it as tough to take as the 2005 season, where the team's miserable offense robbed them of any chance at being legitimate contenders in the division, and also robbed Johan Santana of a Cy Young Award he so clearly deserved.

In spite of its deflating finish, this 2008 season was an incredible one. The Twins carried roundly low expectations, having entered the season with a rotation filled with inexperienced pitchers that lacked legitimate big-league experience and a patchwork offense that would seemingly need some time to gel. They exceeded all of those expectations by hanging near the top of the division for the entire year, and ultimately forcing the first one-game playoff in franchise history. And while they came up on the short end of that contest, they played hard and gave their fans something to be proud of. Nick Blackburn, who has struggled on the road and against the Sox this year, gave a valiant effort, taking a shutout into the seventh inning before making one mistake to Jim Thome that ended up deciding the game. Michael Cuddyer, playing on a bad ankle, charged home on a fly ball to short center and railed A.J. Pierzynski when Ken Griffey Jr.'s throw beat him to the plate. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau both failed to reach base in the game -- the first time all year that has happened -- but considering all they had done all year to get the Twins to that 163rd game, it's difficult to harbor resentment.

The playoffs are a lot of fun, and it's unfortunate that we fans won't be able to cheer our favorite team on during these dramatic weeks. But this season presented plenty of excitement for fans. Blackburn's impressive rookie campaign has quickly turned him from a middling prospect into a legitimate big-league starter and a building block for this rotation down the line. Francisco Liriano's strong performance down the stretch after returning to the minors in August gives hope that he can return somewhere close to the level he reached back in 2006 and be an ace for this club. Justin Morneau delivered tons of huge hits, carried the team through rough stretches, won the Home Run Derby and scored the winning run in the All-Star game. Joe Mauer won another batting title. Denard Span put together a brilliant campaign and cemented himself in the team's plans going forward.

There are a lot of negatives clouding our vision right now in the wake of a hugely disappointing final five days of this 2008 season. But once those dark clouds start to dissipate, the light will shine on what was an excellent overall year and on the promise that lies ahead. These five young starters all finish the year healthy and will all be relatively inexpensive for years to come. The bullpen, cause of so much frustration during the summer months, finished strong and shows beams of light in the form of Jose Mijares and in the potential return of Pat Neshek. Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Michael Cuddyer -- among others -- can only be expected to improve upon what were decidedly disappointing offensive seasons. And this team enters the offseason considerably under budget. A solid core is in place, and Bill Smith has the means to build around that core and put an even better team back on the field in 2009.

When previewing the American League back in March, I predicted that the Twins would finish third in the Central, and summed up my capsule on the team by stating, "The Twins can compete if a number of things go right, but realistically this is probably about a .500 team." Over the course of the season, a number of things did go right. But in the end, a few too many things went wrong. Right now, that stings. Eventually, it'll be easier to look on the bright side.

Mosvick's Award Picks

Just as giving out grades is a somewhat lame method of postseason analysis, posting on the major-league awards can just as easily be construed as lame. However, I'd still like to weigh in with my opinions with another of my rare contributions to the blog from Virginia. After all, I have no excuse right now since I'm on fall break and am supposed to be relaxing. With that, here are the award winners as I see them:

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
There isn't really much of a debate here. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to argue against A-Rod deserving this honor. Rodriguez hit .314/.422/.645 with 54 HR, 156 RBI, 143 runs scored, 376 total bases, 85 extra-base hits, and 24 stolen bases. He posted an MLB-best 96.6 VORP as well as leading the league with 299 times on base and 166 runs created. With his season, he set records for third basemen in home runs, RBI, runs scored, and runs created. While A-Rod is struggling in the postseason, it has nothing to do with the MVP race. Magglio Ordonez was great for the Tigers, but a marginal outfielder who had an offensive season just below that of a good defender at third does not pass the bar.

NL MVP: Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies
Rollins had a stunning year at short, hitting .296/.344/.531 with 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, 139 runs scored, 211, 41 stolen bases, and 380 total bases. If you go by VORP, Rollins doesn't appear to be the standout candidate. Rollins's VORP of 66.1 ranks 9th in the NL behind Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Chase Utley. Out of those players, Wright, Holliday, Fielder, and Utley seem like the standout MVP candidates. Ramirez, Pujols, and Cabrera were outstanding -- especially the underrated Ramirez who has a great bat but is a butcher at shortstop; however, they all played for losing teams.

Holliday and Wright are likely Rollins's biggest competition. While everyone believes Coors Field is an offensive haven, it's nothing compared to Rollins' home field of Citizens Bank Park. However, that didn't really affect Rollins, who hit ..293/.352/.507 in away games this year. Holliday's 92 extra-base hits, .340/.405/.607 line, and 386 total bases all rank above Rollins. However, as an outfielder, Holliday's defensive contribution (not factored into VORP) is nowhere near that of the phenomenal defense of Rollins at shortstop.

As for Wright, his season is a good comp for Rollins. Wright is young at 24, is constantly improving, and provides good defense at the hot corner. Wright hit .325/.416/.546 with 30 home runs, 107 RBI, and 34 stolen bases, all amazing numbers. Yet, while the arguments of intangibles are often lost on me, I believe it is in this vein that Rollins wins out. The Philadelphia shortstop's combination of speed, power, defense, and leadership is hard to beat any year especially in a year in which Rollins had one of just four 20-20-20-20 seasons all time.

AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
As much as I detest the Indians (and especially Sabathia) as a Twins fan, it's just hard to pick against this guy. Sabathia's basic numbers were impressive enough, as he went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA. However, his deeper numbers tell the story of why he should win. Sabathia's 209/37 K/BB ratio (5.65) is this second best all-time for a left-hander, behind Randy Johnson's 290/44 (6.59) in 2004. His 65.2 VORP ranks first for AL pitchers. He also ranked first in innings with 241 and fifth in WHIP (1.14).

Sabathia's main competition is his own teammate Fausto Carmona, along with the Angels' John Lackey, and Boston's Josh Beckett. Carmona has been largely eliminated despite his 3.06 ERA and 19 wins due to the fact that he's only struck out 137 and has walked 61 as well as having pitched fewer innings then Sabathia. Lackey could be eliminated for similar reasons, as his only real advantage over Sabathia is in ERA (a league-leading 3.01), while he pitched fewer innings (224), struck out fewer (179), and walked more (52). Beckett is probably considered Sabathia's major competition, simply because he has that all important 20th win that writers seem to love so much. However, while his 194/40 K/BB ratio is very good, Beckett threw significantly less innings (200 2/3), giving him less strikeouts (194) with a slightly higher ERA (3.27). He has a better BAA (.245 to Sabathia's .259) but overall, it does not seem enough to justify giving the award to Beckett over Sabathia.

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres
This is just as easy as giving the AL MVP to A-Rod. Peavy won the NL pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins (19), ERA (2.54) and strikeouts (240). He also posted a league-leading WHIP (1.06) and OBA (.208). No one else was even close.

AL Rookie of the Year: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Boston had two rookies everyone was excited about coming into this year from Japan, with most of the attention focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka. However, Dice-K had a fairly uneven year, as he showed the ability to strikeout hitters with 201 K in 204 2/3 innings yet posted a high ERA of 4.40 and ranked sixth in the AL with 80 walks. It was also thought that Alex Gordon would give good competition, but Gordon struggled for most of the year and guys like Jeremy Guthrie had significantly better rookie campaigns. However, it largely came down to a race between Kansas City's Brian Bannister and Pedroia.

Bannister pitched very well for the Royals, but Pedroia definitely had the superior year. His 317 average ranked 10th in the AL and he showed some power with 39 doubles and some decent patience with 47 walks while playing solid defense.

NL Rookie of the Year: Troy Tulowitzski, Colorado Rockies
This is a much harder race than the AL rookie race. Tulowitzski is joined by Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence as outstanding rookie candidates. Pence looked like the early front runner, hitting .343/.372/.593 in May and .314/.336/.542 in June before going down with an injury that kept him out of the lineup through the end of July and most of August. Pence's .322/.360/.539 was good and his 17 home runs showed lots of power potential, but his patience certainly leaves something to be desired. Pence also flashed a good glove in center field.

Braun, on the other hand, became the talk of baseball fast in June, as he hit .382/.435/.716 with 6 home runs and 21 RBI. Braun continued his massive pace, hitting .324/.370/.634 over all with 34 home runs and 97 RBI, setting an rookie record with his limited at-bats. However, Braun was also an absolute butcher at third, making 26 errors in 112 games at third.

That leaves Tulowitzski, who had a great year offensively and defensively. As a defender, Tulowitzski had the most putouts by a shortstop since Ozzie Smith. Offensively, Tulowitzski certainly benefited from Coors Field, hitting .326/.392/.568 while hitting .291/.359/.479 overall. Despite the home field advantage, Tulowitzski's 24 home runs broke the National League record for home runs by a rookie shortstop, passing Ernie Banks, and it ranks third behind Cal Ripken and Nomar Garciaparra all-time. Just as well, Tulowitzski's 104 runs scored and 99 RBI are impressive for an shortstop. More importantly, Tulowizski was able to help shape the entire Rockies season, playing 155 games and helping to lead them ultimately to the National League Championship Series.

2007 Grades: The Pitchers

Before I get started today, I'd like to mention the Playoff Contest over at SethSpeaks.net. It's a great way to stay involved and interested in the MLB post-season even with the Twins not in it. The playoff action gets started this afternoon, but if you have some time this morning, be sure to swing by and build your fantasy playoff team! OK, on to the pitching grades...

Yesterday, I handed out my 2007 grades for the Twins' position players. Today, I'll take a look at the pitching staff. I've graded every pitcher that threw a pitch for the Twins this season, with the exception of Jason Miller, who tossed a total of four innings with the big-league club. As with the position players, the pitchers' grades are adjusted a bit based on expectations, but I tried to keep the scale as absolute as possible. Again, the players are listed in no particular order.

***

JOHAN SANTANA: A-
219 IP, 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 235 K / 52 BB, 1.07 WHIP
The bad news is that Santana put up his worst numbers since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. The good news is that those numbers are still extremely good by any standards. Perhaps it is unfortunate for Santana that he has been so good for the past three years, because if any other pitcher on the Twins' staff put up numbers like these, we'd all be jumping for joy. Instead, another great season from Santana is met with little enthusiasm. A lot of streaks ended for Santana this year: his string of strikeout crowns, his run of consecutive outings with 5+ innings pitched, his home winning streak. But for the fourth straight year, Santana pitched well over 200 innings while ranking among the best pitchers in the league in almost every category.

CARLOS SILVA: B
202 IP, 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 89 K / 36 BB, 1.31 WHIP
Expectations were set very low for Silva coming off a miserable 2006 campaign, but he managed to rebound big-time with his second-best season as a starter. After surrendering a whopping 38 home runs in '06, Silva nearly cut that number in half by allowing just 20 this year -- his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter.

MATT GARZA: B
83 IP, 5-7, 3.69 ERA, 67 K / 32 BB, 1.54 WHIP
Many will look at the difference between Garza's ERA in 2006 (5.76) and 2007 (3.69) and conclude that he made the necessary adjustments to become an effective major-league pitcher. That may not be totally true. Garza got off to a great start after being called up at the beginning of July, posting a 1.70 ERA while posting a 35/12 strikeout-to-walk ratio and holding opponents to a .239 average through his first 37 innings. But, from that point forward, Garza experienced struggles similar to those he encountered as a rookie the previous season. Over his final 46 innings, Garza posted a 5.28 ERA to go along with a K/BB ratio of 32/20 and a BAA of .333. His strikeout and walk rates over that latter span were actually worse than the ones he posted in 2006.

BOOF BONSER: D+
173 IP, 8-12, 5.10 ERA, 136 K / 65 BB, 1.53 WHIP
After an impressive debut at the major-league level in 2006, Bonser regressed in almost all categories in 2007. Outside of an excellent month of May, Bonser was downright horrible all year long, and he was eventually moved to the bullpen in the final month of season.

SCOTT BAKER: B
143.2 IP, 9-9, 4.26 ERA, 102 K / 29 BB, 1.33 WHIP
Something of an afterthought coming into the season, Baker surprised many by stepping up and delivering an above-average performance after joining the Twins' rotation in May. After struggling a bit initially, Baker posted a 3.24 ERA over 71 2/3 innings after July 30. His near-perfect game on August 31, which I attended, will be my most vivid memory from this season.

KEVIN SLOWEY: C+
66.2 IP, 4-1, 4.73 ERA, 47 K / 11 BB, 1.40 WHIP
Slowey struggled mightily in his first call-up, posting a 5.84 ERA while allowing 13 home runs in 37 innings and striking out only one batter per every two innings. When Slowey returned to the team as a September call-up, he was a different pitcher. In six September outings (four starts), Slowey posted a 3.34 ERA, fanned about one batter per inning, and allowed just three home runs in 29 and 2/3 frames. The overall numbers aren't overly impressive, but the upward trend toward the end of the season is very encouraging.

SIDNEY PONSON: F
37.2 IP, 2-5, 6.93 ERA, 23 K/ 17 BB, 1.89 WHIP
Ponson was predictably horrible, putting up atrocious numbers over seven wasted starts before being cut in May. Signing Ponson to a low-risk minor-league contract was not a bad move by the Twins; handing him an undeserved spot in the rotation to start the year and watching him get shelled for seven starts was.

RAMON ORTIZ: D+
91 IP, 4-4, 5.14 ERA, 44 K / 15 BB, 1.40 WHIP
Great in April, atrocious in May, and in the bullpen by June. Ortiz did a decent job out of the bullpen for the Twins, posting a 4.15 ERA in 18 relief appearances before being traded to the Rockies in August.

GLEN PERKINS:
B+ 28.2 IP, 0-0, 3.14 ERA, 20 K / 12 BB, 1.22 WHIP
While his workload for the season was unfortunately limited due to shoulder problems, Perkins looked great when he was on the mound with the Twins. He allowed only two homers in nearly 30 innings and limited opposing hitters to a .232 average. He did not allow a run in seven appearances after returning to the Twins in September.

NICK BLACKBURN: F

11.2 IP, 0-2, 7.71 ERA, 8 K / 2 BB, 1.80 WHIP

A September call-up, Blackburn made his major-league debut out of the Twins' bullpen on September 3, tossing a scoreless ninth inning in a 5-0 loss to the Indians. Blackburn continued to pitch well in his first several innings at the major-league level, posting a 2.08 ERA across 8 2/3 innings in his first four appearances. His final two appearances of the season, however, were beyond brutal, and they completely changed the complexion of his overall numbers. In three innings spread across his final two outings, Blackburn allowed 10 runs (eight earned) on 11 hits, including two homers. His overall performance this season is too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions from, but hopefully next year he will look more like the pitcher from those first four appearances and less like the one from the last two.

JESSE CRAIN: D-

16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 10 K / 4 BB, 1.41 WHIP

No doubt affected by shoulder problems that would quickly end his 2007 season, Crain pitched very poorly in 18 appearances. He underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff at end of May, and it is entirely possibly that he will not pitch again in the major leagues.

JULIO DEPAULA: F
20 IP, 8.55 ERA, 8 K / 10 BB, 2.00 WHIP

DePaula got his major-league career off to a very ugly start with the Twins this year. He walked more men than he struck out, he allowed tons of hits, and he surrended five home runs in 20 innings. My lasting memory from DePaula this season will be the time in early September that he entered a game against the White Sox in the ninth inning with the Twins ahead by six, and proceeded to surrender five earned runs without recording an out, allowing the Sox to get back into the game and eventually win.

PAT NESHEK: B+

70.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 74 K / 20 BB, 1.01 WHIP

After an astonishing first half in which he posted a 1.70 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .129 batting average, Neshek saw some serious regression after the All-Star break, where those numbers dropped to 4.82 and .260. Neshek posted a stellar K/9 rate of 11.1 in the first half, but that rate dropped off to 7.1 in the second half. Meanwhile, he walked one more batter in 28 post-break innings (14) than he did in 42 1/3 innings before the break (13). Neshek's overall results were still great, but the dramatic drop-off in the second half raises questions about whether his team-leading 74 appearances were too many.

JUAN RINCON: D-

59.2 IP, 5.13 ERA, 49 K / 28 BB, 1.56 WHIP

A crucial member of the Twins' bullpen for the past four seasons, Rincon saw his playing time diminish along with his control and his ability to keep the ball in the park. Rincon gave up nine home runs in 2007, which equals the total he allowed over the past three seasons prior -- a span of more than 200 innings. After watching his ERA shoot up to 5.71 with a brutal outing in Toronto on July 25, Rincon never was able to get back under 5 for the rest of the season. There were no rumblings of injury issues, so it's tough to finger what was behind Rincon's putrid 2007 campaign.

MATT GUERRIER: A-

88 IP, 2.35 ERA, 68 K / 21 BB, 1.05 WHIP

With a brilliant showing in 2007, Guerrier effectively turned himself from a reliable long-relief guy to a top-notch setup man. Like Neshek, Guerrier experienced some decline in the second half (1.70 before the break, 3.34 after) but it wasn't as drastic, and Guerrier actually improved his strikeout rate late in the year.

DENNYS REYES: C-
29.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 21 K / 21 BB, 1.88 WHIP

Few people expected Reyes to replicate his magical 2006 numbers, but the drop-off in '07 was pretty steep. While the ERA was not too bad, Reyes allowed way too many baserunners this season. After walking just 2.6 batters per nine innings and holding opponents to a .197 batting average last year, Reyes saw those numbers rise to 6.4 and .309 this year. He also missed a large portion of the season due to shoulder problems.

JOE NATHAN: A-

71.2 IP, 1.88 ERA, 77 K / 19 BB, 1.02 WHIP

Nathan wasn't nearly as dominant as he was in '06, as his K/9 rate fell from 12.5 to 9.7, but he continued to be one of the top closers in the league by coming through in important situations and consistently keeping opposing hitters off the base-paths.

CARMEN CALI: C-

21 IP, 4.71 ERA, 14 K / 16 BB, 1.81 WHIP

All things considered, Cali did a reasonably decent job in limited duty out of the Twins' bullpen despite having no positive history at the major-league level. His control was horrendous (16 walks in 21 innings), but he managed to work around that to post an adequate ERA.

2007 Grades: The Hitters

I racked my brain trying to come up with some original and innovative method of evaluating the 2007 performances of the individual Twins players, but in the end I've decided to take the cliche route of handing out grades. Lame, I know. Today I'll take a look at the hitters, and tomorrow I'll move on to the pitching staff.

Below I have come up with a grade for each position player that had any type of significant role on the 2007 Minnesota Twins (for the purposes of this article, the cut-off will be 50+ AB), with the players listed in order of 2007 at-bats. The grades are adjusted somewhat based on expectations and age, but I tried to make my scale as absolute as possible so that every player is graded on the same criteria.

***

JOE MAUER: B

.293/.382/.426, 7 HR, 60 RBI, 62 R, 7/8 SB

It's tough to analyze Mauer's '07 campaign. On the one hand, you want to give him credit for putting up very solid numbers, ones which are well above average for a major-league catcher. On the other hand, you can't help but be disappointed by the major decline from his astonishing 2006 campaign and the total lack of power. Mauer was limited to only 109 games and 406 at-bats due to various injuries; that may not have been something he really had control over, but it definitely inhibited his ability to help the team win.

JUSTIN MORNEAU: B

.271/.343/.492, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 84 R, 1/2 SB

Like Mauer, Morneau is tough to grade. You look at his overall hitting line and think, "Nice season"; but then you start to contemplate the fact that he was hitting .295/.364/.581 with 24 home runs at the All-Star break, and you can't help but feel that those overall numbers are a big let-down. Morneau hit only seven home runs after the break and saw his slugging percentage fall by nearly 200 points from the first half. In the final 63 games of the season, he hit a total of three balls over the fence. Overall, Morneau had a solid season, but thanks to a rather miserable second half in which he could never seem to really get going, it was a far cry from his MVP campaign in 2006.

TORII HUNTER: A-

.287/.334/.505. 28 HR, 107 RBI, 94 R, 18/27 SB

Playing for a big contract in what was likely his final year with the Twins, Hunter put up bigtime numbers, setting career highs in several offensive categories. Like Morneau, Hunter's power numbers tailed off in the second half, but he was still a solid contributor. Hunter was durable, appearing in all but two of the Twins' games this season, and he was solid defensively. He ranked fourth in the AL in doubles with 45.

LUIS CASTILLO: C+

.304/.356/.352, 0 HR, 18 RBI, 54 R, 9/13 SB

When you look at his batting average, it would appear that Castillo was a very solid contributor for the Twins in the leadoff spot. Yet, when you look further into his peripherals, you find that he simply wasn't a great player with the Twins this season. Castillo hit for almost zero power, managing just 14 extra-base hits in 85 games. His lack of patience was also disappointing, as he managed just 29 walks in 384 plate appearances with the Twins, and posted a .356 on-base percentage that would have ranked as his lowest since 2001. Though he still able to find his way on base thanks to his ability to constantly beat the ball into the ground and frequently scamper to first before the throw for an infield hit, Castillo was a declining defensive second baseman with no power and diminishing speed.

NICK PUNTO: D

.210/.291/.271, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 53 R, 16/22 SB

Only a late-season offensive surge saved Punto from finishing with a batting average below .200. He was a complete mess at the plate, reaching base less than 30 percent of the time while frequently failing to execute simple fundamental plays like sacrifice bunts. Fortunately, Punto was very good defensively, and he turned in several highlight-reel gems at each infield position. There's no denying that Punto's horrendous offensive performance hurt the team more than probably any other individual this season, but I tend to place that burden on the manager rather than the player. Punto's brutal offensive numbers in 2007 would not have been nearly as damaging to the team had he been used as a part-time player and utility man, as he should have been the moment a better option arose.

BRIAN BUSCHER: C+

.244/.323/.329, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB

Buscher, called up from Triple-A in July after posting great numbers at two levels of the minors, was that better option. In his first 21 games with the Twins, Buscher batted .294/.357/.412, but despite his offensive proficiency, he never found himself in the lineup on a consistent basis. Buscher managed just five hits in his final 31 at-bats (.161), which caused his overall numbers to take a dive, but the overall effort was a decent one from the 26-year-old rookie. He showed some flashes of power and plate discipline, and should be in the mix to start at third next year unless the Twins bring in someone from outside the organization.

ALEXI CASILLA: D-

.222/.256/.259, 0 HR, 9 RBI, 15 R, 11/12 SB

There are very few positives to be drawn from Casilla's performance over 56 games with the Twins this year. The 23-year-old put up even worse offensive numbers than Punto while playing shoddy defense and making countless mistakes in almost every aspect of the game. His poor plate discipline was tremendously disappointing, as he managed just nine walks in 204 plate appearances while striking out 29 times. Casilla showed some good speed on the basepaths, but outside of that, the young infielder took a step back in his progression in 2007 by showing that he couldn't hold his own in the big leagues.

JASON BARTLETT: B-

.265/.339/.361, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 75 R, 23/26 SB

Certainly, Bartlett's 2007 season was a step back from what he was able to do after being called up in 2006, but the shortstop recovered nicely after a horrific start to put up some decent numbers overall. Bartlett was a fixture at shortstop, coming to the plate 570 times over the course of the season, and he got on base at a decent clip while running the bases well. His defense was suspect at times, but overall he showed good range and made some nice plays. The area most in need of improvement is power; I don't care much that he only hit five home runs, but I'd certainly expect more than 20 doubles over 140 games considering the excellent gap power he showed in the minors.

LEW FORD: D+
.233/.315/.362, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 13 R, 3/4 SB
Ford showed some improvement from the hideous numbers he put up in 2006, but not a whole lot. He appeared in only 55 games and didn't do a whole lot when he was in the lineup.

JEFF CIRILLO: C-
.261/.327/.386, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 18 R, 2/2 SB
The Twins brought in Cirillo during the offseason with the hopes that he could be a reliable backup and perhaps even part-time starter at third base and DH while mashing lefties. He really wasn't able to accomplish either of those tasks. Cirillo posted a .750 OPS against left-handers this season, and seemingly couldn't play more than once or twice a week due to nagging injuries. He was traded in August, and it didn't make a whole lot of difference.

MIKE REDMOND: B+
.294/.346/.353, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 23 R, 0/0 SB
Redmond's offensive contributions were somewhat similar to those of Castillo -- good average with very little patience or power. That's a pretty acceptable hitting line for a backup catcher, though, and Redmond posted it while playing good defense and being likable in the clubhouse. Redmond was excellent against lefties (.330/.410/.443), which made him the perfect complement to Mauer.

JASON KUBEL: B-
.273/.335/.450, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 49 R, 5/5 SB
Kubel recovered from a horrible first half to finish the season with a very respectable hitting line. We can't ignore that brutal first half, which is why his grade isn't as high as it could have been, but Kubel showed good power and increasingly solid plate discipline throughout the season, which sparks hope that the 25-year-old could be poised for a big season in '08.

RONDELL WHITE: F
.174/.235/.321, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB
White was hurt for much of the year, and when he wasn't, he hit incredibly poorly while playing offensive positions.

GARRETT JONES: D-
.208/.262/.338, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 7 R, 1/2 SB
In his relatively brief time with the Twins, Jones showed glimmers of power, but overall he was a bad hitter who didn't look to belong in the major leagues. He struck out 20 times in 77 at-bats, and went 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts against lefties.

JASON TYNER: C
.286/.331/.355, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 42 R, 8/11 SB
While getting far more at-bats (304) than he rightfully should have and ridiculously appearing in 70 percent of the team's games, Tyner did what he always does: posted a solid average while essentially hitting nothing but singles and playing mediocre defense.

LUIS RODRIGUEZ: F
.219/.281/.303, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 18 R, 1/1 SB
Rodriguez had his worst offensive season as a major leaguer, and didn't do much in the field or on the basepaths to offset that.

CHRIS HEINTZ: A+
.250/.288/.250, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB
My darkhorse candidate for team MVP.

End of Season Thoughts

First, let me apologize for the lack of new posts this weekend.

Second, let me thank everyone who contributed to the comments section for Friday's post. I wrote up that offseason wish list with the hopes that it would generate some good conversation, and it did just that. There were some great comments, and I'll address a few of the points that were brought up below. But first, I'll reflect on the season that ended yesterday with a 3-2 victory in Boston.

The Twins' 2007 season opened on April 2, with Johan Santana facing off against Orioles' ace Erik Bedard at the Metrodome. One hundred and sixty-two games later, the Twins are 79-83 and the '07 season is in the books.

The Twins finished third in the AL Central, which is exactly where I predicted they'd finish back in March, so I suppose I shouldn't be too disappointed. Yet, I am disappointed. During the season, I saw flashes of brilliance from this team, and I saw a roster with enough talent to compete for a playoff spot. Instead, that team finished 17 games out of first place, because for whatever reason they could never seem to consistently get big hits, they fell apart in key series, and the front office stood pat without making a single move to bolster the fledgling offense.

It was a season filled with disappointing individual performances, and highlighted by the resignation of longtime general manager Terry Ryan. This offseason is going to be a hugely important one, and I really have no idea what to expect from new GM Bill Smith. I truly hope he's able to make some moves that will get the team back on a competitive track in 2008 while simultaneously setting the organization up for future success. It won't be easy, but I think the moves I suggested in my post on Friday are the type that could put the team in that type of situation.

There were a few gripes that seemed to be common themes in the comments section on my Friday post. The most prominent seems to be that the Twins should get more for Santana than the suggested bounty of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. Believe me, I'd love to see the Twins get as much as they possibly can when trading the best pitcher in baseball, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another top-notch prospect added to that package depending on how many other teams are bidding for Santana's services. I do, however, think it would be wise for people to temper their expectations about what the Twins could get back for Santana. Receiving a young outfielder who can hit like Kemp and play center field along with a 19-year-old left-handed pitcher with arguably the most upside of any hurler in the minors in return for any one player -- not matter how great -- is impressive. If the Twins are able to get a package better than Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, great; but I'd be satisfied with that deal.

Several people thought that signing Bonds was unrealistic, while some just don't want him here. I can understand both sentiments, and I agree that it's a long-shot. I would really love to see the effect that Bonds would have on this lineup though.

Anyway, while I was disappointed by the way the Twin' 2007 season ended up, it was a really fun season for me. I truly enjoyed writing on this blog, and there was more interaction in the comments section than any previous year. I was able to meet several fellow bloggers and readers over the course of the year, which was a great experience. Here in the final couple months, once Mr. Mosvick departed to go law school, I had the responsibility of posting every day, and let me just saw that I have a new level of respect for guys like Aaron Gleeman and Seth Stohs, who find time to update their blogs individually almost daily and with no assistance.

With the season coming to an end, so too will the everyday posting routine here on this blog. This should be fairly obvious, since there just isn't a whole lot to write about during the offseason. I hope everyone will still visit back frequently, however, because I do plan to update at least a few times a week this winter. Whenever the team makes a move, I'll have analysis, and I hope people will stop by to give their own thoughts. Over the next few days, I'll do some season review stuff, and then I'll just play it by ear from that point forward.

Thanks everyone for reading and commenting. I hope you'll continue to stop by during the offseason. It will be a crucial one for Smith and the Twins organization.