2008 Spring Training Preview

The sun is high in the sky, blanketing the expansive stretch of freshly cut outfield grass. A warm breeze blows across the infield, kicking up puffs of brown sand and carrying them into the dugout and seats. The sound of bats cracking and mitts smacking fills the air. Ah, spring.

That last paragraph was pretty difficult to write as I sit here staring out my frost-covered window at another gray winter day in Minnesota. But it sure was fun. I like Minnesota, and I don't generally mind winter, but by the time we approach the end of February each year, I am ready for the snow to melt and for all the wonderful sights and sounds of baseball to fill the air. Fortunately, the start of Spring Training is upon us in the nick of time. Most catchers and pitchers are in Ft. Myers now, and the rest of the position players will slowly begin to make appearances over the course of the next couple weeks.

The majority of us fans can't make it down to Florida to take in the spring action (I'll be in Orlando for a week in mid-March and I'm holding out hope that I can get someone to take a trip down to Ft. Myers with me), but at the very least we can follow all the updates courtesy of the Star Tribune and Pioneer Press beat writers who work tirelessly to transmit all of the pertinent developments to those of us unfortunate enough to be stuck in Minne-snow-ta.

Last year, the Twins went into Spring Training with few questions. They had retained most of their players from a successful 2006 campaign, and the starters at most positions were decided going in. This year will be a lot different, to say the least. Major offseason shakeups have left the Twins with many new faces, and several decisions to be made. Today I'll preview some storylines that merit following, as well as some starting spots that multiple players will likely be auditioning for a spot at. Finally, I will predict the Opening Day 25-man roster, which will undoubtedly prove to be a much more difficult task than it was last year.

Worth Keeping an Eye On...

* Francisco Liriano. When will he get to camp? How will his arm feel? Where will his velocity be? How much will he throw his slider? Certainly more important questions surrounding him than any other player, and the answers could very well determine whether the Twins are contenders or pretenders in 2008.

* The new guys. There are a lot of them: Delmon Young, Jason Pridie, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Livan Hernandez, Craig Monroe, etc. Many Twins fans will be getting their first significant looks at these guys. What will they bring to the table? How will they fit in with the returning Twins' nucleus?

* Joe Nathan. Reports indicate that he and the team are in talks about a contract extension, but it's difficult to gauge how serious these talks really are. Given their frugal nature, it's hard to see the Twins being willing to pony up the amount of money Nathan is likely to command. Will his undecided contract situation be a distraction?

* Jesse Crain. He's coming off surgery for one of the most devastating injuries possible for a pitcher -- a torn rotator cuff and labrum -- and the prognosis for guys in his position is not good. He claims to be ready to go, but I'll be very skeptical until I hear that he's on the mound and throwing 90+ mph.

Position Battles

Starting Second Baseman
This would appear to be a three-way battle between Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and newly acquired Brendan Harris. Each player has his strengths: Punto is the stellar defender, Casilla the speedy and exciting youngster, with Harris possessing the best stick. Given his poor 2007 campaign, I think there's little doubt that Casilla will start the season in Rochester unless he goes crazy this spring. Punto would seem to have an intrinsic advantage given the fact that Ron Gardenhire is clearly very fond of him, but I imagine that the offense-starved Twins will end up going with Harris on Opening Day in spite of his defensive deficiencies. He will have to have a good spring though, in order to avoid giving Gardy an excuse to stick with his favorite tail-battler.

Favorite: Brendan Harris

Starting Center Fielder

Right now this looks like a battle between two newly acquired players: Jason Pridie and Carlos Gomez. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins hand a one-year contract to one of the remaining veteran free agents at the position, such as Kenny Lofton or Corey Patterson. If not, the advantage probably goes to Gomez by a smidge, although either one could make a good case. Pridie has the advantage of being older and more experienced, and he's actually had material success in the high minors. Conversely, Gomez is young and still quite raw, and since he was pushed very aggressively through the Mets' system he never had much time to adjust to any level. That's likely a large part of the reason that he has never had a ton of success at any stop in the minors.

With that said, I suspect the Twins will be eager to show some kind of return on the Johan Santana deal, and while his offensive game is a work in progress, Gomez already looks to be an above-average defender and base-runner. It also stands to reason that the Twins might prefer his right-handed bat to Pridie's left-handed bat in a lineup that is somewhat heavy on lefties, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel and Mike Lamb all projecting to be regular starters. I'll give the edge to Gomez for now, but this seems like a spot that could easily be won with a strong performance in March.

Favorite: Carlos Gomez

Fifth Spot in the Rotation

This is tricky, because one could really make an argument that all five spots in the rotation are up for grabs. For the purposes of this article, I'm going to assume that Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano and Livan Hernandez all have a spot in the rotation locked up. They are the most established candidates and I think it would take a really poor spring or an injury to prevent any of those guys from being there. This leaves an open competition for the last spot, where numerous young hurlers are likely to get a look. These names include Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing. You could also add veterans Zach Day and Randy Keisler to the list of contenders, but I suspect that they were brought in more as minor-league filler than legitimate candidates to fill a major-league roster spot.

Looking at the group of promising young arms, there are several guys with the potential to step up and seize a spot. But I'll make a couple of assumptions. First, I believe that both Blackburn and Perkins will start the season pitching out of the Twins' bullpen. I think the team will be grooming Humber for the bullpen, though he may just start the season starting in Triple-A. Mulvey is also likely to start in Rochester, and my guess is that Duensing will be there also since his name has mysteriously not been brought up much by Twins' coaches when discussing this year's rotation. That leaves Slowey, who is the only one in the bunch with significant big-league experience.

Slowey made his major-league debut with the Twins last year and tossed 66 2/3 innings with a relatively unimpressive 4.73 ERA. It's certainly worth noting, however, that in his second stint with the team as a September call-up, Slowey was excellent, posting a 3.34 ERA and 28-to-3 K/BB ratio over 29 2/3 innings. Given his late-season success and his complete dominance in Triple-A, I can't see any way the Twins send Slowey back to Rochester as long as he has a solid spring.

Favorite: Kevin Slowey

Final Bullpen Spot(s)

We can be relatively certain that Joe Nathan, Pat Neshek, Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes and Matt Guerrier will all have a spot in the bullpen on March 31. That leaves one additional spot, or two if the Twins elect to go with a seven-man bullpen (which I believe they will, considering the lack of experience in the starting rotation). I've stated before that I think Humber is going to end up in the 'pen, and I figured that he would likely start the season there if he was truly out of options, which had been rumored in various places. However, La Velle cleared up those rumors on Saturday when he reported that Humber still has one option left. With that being the case, I believe he will start the season in Triple-A, with Blackburn opening the season in the Twins' bullpen as a long reliever. If Jesse Crain is truly back to full strengh in the wake of his surgery, that final spot would probably go to him. Since I have a hard time believing that he'll be ready to go at the outset of the season, I'm going to say the final spot will end up going to Perkins, who is the logical choice since he would give the team a second lefty out of the bullpen.

Favorites: Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins

Final Bench Spot
A seven-man bullpen leaves only four available spots on the bench. We can reasonably assume that three of those spots will be occupied by Mike Redmond, Craig Monroe and Punto (or Harris). The final spot is a little tricky. It could be occupied by the loser of the Gomez/Pridie battle in center field, but I doubt that for two reasons: 1) since both of those players are at a stage where they should be getting regular playing time, the loser would logically open the season as Rochester's starting CF; and 2) the Twins would already have five outfielders between Young, Cuddyer, Kubel, Monroe and Gomez/Pridie. Even Punto could fill a spot in a pinch.

What the Twins lack in the current scenario is backup infielder who can actually be an asset as a pinch-hitter. Punto can play any infield spot, but his bat is weak at third base and especially weak at first base. So, a more powerful corner-infield type would make sense. Garrett Jones is an option, but he is a poor defender and his left-handed bat is redundant with Morneau and Lamb (he also wouldn't be able to field any infield position other than first base). The defensive issues and left-handed bat also prevent Brian Buscher from looking like a real contender. Instead, I think the best option might be Matt Macri, who can play first, second or third, and possesses a solid right-handed bat which could be platooned with Lamb.

Favorite: Matt Macri

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With all those battles in mind, here is how I project the Twins' Opening Day 25-man roster (although I certainly reserve the right to make adjustments as Spring Training progresses):

STARTERS

C: Joe Mauer

1B: Justin Morneau

2B: Brendan Harris

3B: Mike Lamb

SS: Adam Everett

LF: Delmon Young

CF: Carlos Gomez

RF: Michael Cuddyer

DH: Jason Kubel

BENCH

C: Mike Redmond

IF: Nick Punto

IF: Matt Macri

OF: Craig Monroe

ROTATION

SP: Scott Baker

SP: Boof Bonser

SP: Francisco Liriano

SP: Livan Hernandez

SP: Kevin Slowey

BULLPEN

RP: Joe Nathan

RP: Pat Neshek

RP: Matt Guerrier

RP: Juan Rincon

RP: Dennys Reyes

RP: Nick Blackburn

RP: Glen Perkins

Thoughts?

Wrapping Up the Offseason

The long, cold offseason is finally coming to a close, with pitchers and catchers reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday. Next week I'll have an offseason review piece, as well as a Spring Training preview, and within a couple weeks the Twins' exhibition schedule will be getting underway.

I don't have much to write about today, but here are a few notes:

* One pitcher who won't be reporting to Ft. Myers on Sunday is Francisco Liriano, who is having visa problems stemming from a 2006 DUI arrest. The process of getting things cleared up could take a little over a week. That's unfortunate news, considering that Liriano probably needs to be in camp more than any other pitcher on the staff being that he hasn't pitched in a major-league game in well over a year. The good news, however, is that within the article linked above, Joe Christensen mentions that Liriano "appears fully recovered the Tommy John elbow procedure he had in November 2006," noting that the left-hander "pitched two innings recently in a scrimmage at the Twins’ Dominican academy in Boca Chica."

There is not one player on the Minnesota Twins that I am looking forward to watching this year more than Liriano.

* On Wednesday I wrote about the Twins' signing of Livan Hernandez and concluded that, while not outrageous, it is not a particularly good move. Many fans seem satisfied with the signing, and I have seen numerous people voice sentiments that sound something like this: "Basically the Twins got another Carlos Silva for about half the money Silva is making in Seattle."

While Hernandez and Silva are both heavyset Latino right-handers, the comparison is probably not apt. Given his recent downward trends, I think it's a lot more likely that Hernandez pitches like Silva v. 2006 than Silva v. 2004, 2005 or 2007. Silva was never flashy, but for the majority of his time in Minnesota, he was a solid pitcher who kept the team in games and occasionally tossed a gem. It seems like he was a little under-appreciated, and he may be missed more than people realize, especially by those who seem to think Hernandez will step in and pick up right where Silva left off.

* Speaking of Hernandez, Christensen had an entry in his blog yesterday outlining the details of the newly acquired pitcher's contract, which includes an incentive whereby Hernandez will receive $100,000 if he wins a Cy Young Award this year. Apparently that's pretty standard, but it still seems kind of funny to me. I'd be fine with the Twins rewarding him with $100 million if he wins the Cy Young.

* Finally, here's the image that graced the front page of ESPN.com's MLB section yesterday:

Could that be any more depressing for a Twins fan?

Par for the Course

We all knew it was going to happen at some point. Under-budget and facing the prospect of a starting rotation devoid of experienced veterans, the Twins were going to go out and overpay for a free agent pitcher with a proven ability to eat innings. The Twins dabbled earlier in the offseason, signing guys like Randy Keisler and Zach Day to basically risk-free minor-league contracts, but yesterday the team made its "big splash," handing Livan Hernandez a one-year contract worth $5 million (plus incentives).

The Cuban-born Hernandez, who will (allegedly) turn 33 a week from today, is an 11-year major-league veteran who has spent his entire career in the National League, spending time with four different organizations. He is the definition of a workhorse, having thrown 200-plus innings in nine of those seasons (and 199 2/3 in one of the others). He led the National League in innings pitched for three consecutive years from 2003-05, and has finished in the top ten in that category seven times. He ranks 15th among active pitchers in total innings.

Unfortunately, along with being durable, Hernandez is also quite hittable and homer-prone, and not particularly dominant. There was a time when he posted some pretty good numbers to go along with those impressive innings totals -- during those 2003, 2004 and 2005 seasons where he led the NL in innings, Hernandez also kept his ERA under 4 and managed to strike out a reasonable number of hitters. Those days are in the past, however, and recent trends do not paint a pretty picture:

Year: ERA, K/9IP, WHIP
2004: 3.60, 6.56, 1.24
2005: 3.98, 5.37, 1.43
2006: 4.84, 5.06, 1.50
2007: 4.93, 3.96, 1.59

Obviously, these numbers are disconcerting. It stands to reason that, despite his (allegedly) relatively young age, Hernandez is already wearing down due to the high workload he has faced annually throughout his career. Now, with Hernandez another year older and switching to a better offensive league, there's every reason to believe that his numbers this season could slide into Ramon Ortiz territory.

Yet, I certainly wouldn't view this signing as negatively as the acquisitions of Ortiz and Sidney Ponson last year. For one thing, the Twins will probably only be filling one rotation spot with a washed up vet. That's much more palatable than the idea of promising 40 percent of your starts to Ponson and Ortiz, particularly when you consider that there is a lot less certainty in the rotation this season now that Johan Santana and Carlos Silva are gone. Let's break it down:

You'd like to think that Boof Bonser and Scott Baker are locks for two spots in the rotation, and hopefully Francisco Liriano can fill another spot. Given his dominance in Triple-A last year and his success with the Twins in September, I have to believe Kevin Slowey will make the rotation out of Spring Training. As I explained on Monday, I believe Phil Humber will start the season pitching out of the bullpen, so had the Twins not acquired Hernandez we would likely be left with a battle between Glen Perkins, Kevin Mulvey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing for the final spot in the rotation. Given that Perkins and Mulvey have essentially no experience at the Triple-A level, both could probably benefit from starting the season there, and it's not clear that either Blackburn or Duensing are ready to pitch in the Twins' rotation yet. Slotting Hernandez in that final rotation spot allows all four pitchers to start the season in Rochester (or perhaps, in some cases, the Twins' bullpen) and step in should any of the other five starters suffer an injury or prove ineffective.

While I'm not outraged with this signing, I'm not particularly fond of it either. There are two camps among fans when it comes to the 2008 Twins: one camp believes this team has a legitimate shot at competing, the other one doesn't. No matter which camp you belong to, there is little reason to get excited about this signing. If the Twins truly can compete this season, it's highly unlikely that Hernandez will provide better production as a starter than one of the Blackburn/Duensing/Perkins/Mulvey group would be able to provide, so he's not really enhancing their chances. If the Twins can't compete, then this is a rebuilding year and player development will be the key goal, in which case there's a good chance Hernandez will be hindering the development of at least one of those young pitchers.

Just as they have with many of their other free agent signings over the past few years, the Twins are bringing in an aging veteran who was good at one point but is not very good anymore, and banking on that veteran returning to something close to his old form. As we've seen with Ponson, Ortiz and Tony Batista, this just doesn't happen very often, and what you see is usually what you get with players like these. More than likely, that will be the case with Hernandez. Nevertheless, he does create some depth in the pitching staff, and immediately becomes the only player on the roster who has pieced together a full season in a major-league rotation. There's some value in that, and we'd be ignorant to overlook it.

Philip Humber: The Next Joe Nathan?

I had a dream last week. In this dream, the Twins had not yet announced the Johan Santana trade, but indications were that a deal with an unknown team was in place and that a press release would be made available by the team shortly. I fully expected Santana to be headed to the Yankees, with 21-year-old wunderkind Philip Hughes coming back. The idea was tantalizing -- the Twins would be losing their historically great southpaw, but getting back an absolute stud with legitimate potential to fill the massive void left by Santana's departure. Hughes and Francisco Liriano at the top of the rotation for the next five years? My mouth watered. I think I drooled into my pillow a little bit.

The announcement was made. The Twins had traded Santana. I rushed to my computer to read through the official press release. "The Minnesota Twins announced to today that they have traded two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana for a package that includes right-handed pitcher Philip..." Yes, this is looking good... "H..." Oh baby! "u..." How long until Hughes Twins jerseys are available at the Pro Shops?? "...mber." WHAT?! I woke up in a panic. Thank goodness it was only a dream, and the Twins didn't really trade Santana for a package whose most attractive player might be a marginal pitching prospect who posted a 4.27 ERA in Triple-A last year. Oh wait... yes they did.

There was a time when Phil Humber's career path appeared headed in the direction that Hughes' has gone. Selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft by the Mets after a dominating career at Rice University, Humber had the makeup and stuff of a guy who could rocket through the minor leagues and be pitching at the top of an MLB rotation in no time. Sadly, elbow problems and Tommy John surgery have derailed Humber, and at this point he is far from a guarantee to develop into a strong major-league starter. At one point, it might have been realistic to say Humber could replace Santana as the Twins' ace, but at this point it would be difficult to make that case. Then again, it's entirely possible that the Twins wanted Humber in the package not as a replacement for Santana, but instead as a replacement for another elite Twins pitcher who may be on his way out.

Humber and Joe Nathan are alike in a number of ways. Nathan is 6'4" and 205 lbs. Humber is 6'4" and 210 lbs. Nathan came to the Twins as the most major-league ready pitcher in what was essentially a veteran-for-prospects swap. Ditto Humber. When he's at his best, Nathan relies on a speedy fastball and a nasty breaking pitch to fan opposing hitters. The same can be said for Humber.

Like Humber, Nathan was almost exclusively a starter as he traveled through the minor leagues, but obviously he thrived upon shifting to the bullpen. Could Humber experience the same type of success with a switch to the 'pen? It would be a logical move. Humber has struggled to regain the velocity on his fastball and bite on his curveball since undergoing surgery on his elbow. Working in shorter bullpen stints, he may be better able to utilize his stuff. The lesser workload might also lower his risk for injury. Additionally, moving to the bullpen can be beneficial for pitchers who struggle with control -- that certainly was the case for Nathan, who walked 4.56 batters per nine innings as a minor-leaguer but has never seen that number exceed 2.86 since becoming a full-time closer in the big leagues. The Twins are going to be needing to add some power arms to their bullpen in the near future, with Nathan and Juan Rincon both likely to be gone after next year and Eduardo Morlan no longer in the organization.

It's unlikely that anyone acquired in Mets trade is going to become the next Johan Santana, but if Humber can become the next Joe Nathan, it will make the deal a whole lot more palatable. I think he could do it, but maybe I'm just dreaming.

Can Liriano Snap Back?

Oh, F-Bomb.

No, I'm not referring to Bert Blyleven's expletive of choice. I'm referring to a popular nickname for Francisco Liriano, the young left-handed phenom whose healing left elbow may be the key to the Twins' chances of competing in 2008. On Wednesday I wrote about the state of the Twins' organization from a pitching standpoint, noting that Liriano is the only player with legitimate ace potential likely to be on the team within the next several years. There's no doubting that Liriano has the ability to pitch like a No. 1 -- he was transcendent in 2006, better even than Johan Santana. The question is whether he will be able to regain that form, and if so, how soon he can get there. If it's this season, the Twins could be a force to be reckoned with. Is that plausible? Liriano says he feels great, but in order to get a realistic idea of what to expect from him this year, it is prudent to look at how other pitchers have historically fared in their first year back after the operation.

Here is a quick and dirty list of some prominent pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery over the past decade, and how they performed in the majors in their first year back (innings pitched, ERA, strikeout-to-walk ratio):

Matt Morris
Underwent surgery: 1999
First season back: 53 IP, 3.57 ERA, 34/17

John Smoltz
Underwent surgery: 2000
First season back: 59 IP, 3.36 ERA, 57/10
Became a full-time closer upon returning; later returned to Atlanta's rotation where he has been excellent.

Erik Bedard
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 137.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 121/71
A good comp for Liriano because he's a hard-throwing left-hander with good breaking stuff.

Kris Benson
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 130.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 79/50

Adam Eaton
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 183 IP, 4.08 ERA, 146/68
Not truly his first season back, he returned to the Padres in September of '02 to make six starts and post a 5.40 ERA.

Jon Lieber
Underwent surgery: 2002
First season back: 176.2 IP, 4.33 ERA, 102/18

Chris Capuano
Underwent surgery: 2002.
First season back: 33 IP, 4.64, 23/11
Also pitched 142 2/3 innings in Triple-A for a total of 175 2/3 innings pitched in his first season back.

A.J. Burnett
Underwent surgery: 2003
First season back: 120 IP, 3.68 ERA, 113/38

Paul Byrd
Underwent surgery: 2003.
First season back: 114.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 79/19
Interestingly, he posted a 6.22 K/9 rate that ranks as his best in the past 10 years.

Ryan Dempster
Underwent surgery: 2003
First season back: 20.2 IP, 3.94 ERA, 18/13
Converted to a full-time reliever after the surgery. Has not been especially great since, but what's notable is that it took him less than a year to recover and get back on the mound.

Randy Wolf
Underwent surgery: 2005
First season back: 56.2 IP, 5.56 ERA, 44/33

Most of the players on this list managed to post numbers in line with their career averages in their first year back, which obviously would be a very good thing in Liriano's case. The big issue is innings. I couldn't find one example of a pitcher who surpassed the 200-inning mark in his first season back, and most reached only 130 or so. That might be a realistic goal for Liriano, but he does have a few things working in his favor: 1) he has had a longer recovery time than most pitchers on the list, and 2) he is very young. Of course, he also does have a relatively violent delivery and a high reliance on his breaking pitch, factors which may work against him.

To be completely honest, I have no idea what to expect from Liriano this season. If the Twins can get 130 innings at around a 3.00 ERA from him, I think we'd all be very satisfied. Can that actually happen? History says yes. We'll have to wait and see.

***

On a completely unrelated note, the Gophers football team's recruiting class was ranked No. 17 in the nation by Rivals.com and No. 23 by ESPN. That's pretty amazing for a team that went 1-11 last year. If you're at all interested, you can check out this feature I wrote on head coach Tim Brewster for the student magazine here at the U a while back. Great guy.

A Monumental Shift

For the past several years, the Twins' organization has been saddled with a major problem: too much pitching, too little hitting. It was a problem that prevented the 2005 and 2007 teams from making the playoffs, and also a deep-rooted issue that reached all the way into the lowest levels of the minor leagues. Any listing of the organization's top prospects was certain too include far more arms than bats. Fans continually bemoaned Terry Ryan's inability to deal from his pitching surplus and acquire legitimate hitters.

Now, here in the wake of Bill Smith's big offseason shakeup, I find myself looking up and down the organizational ladder and noticing a major reversal. Suddenly, it appears quite possible that pitching will be the problem needing to be addressed in coming years, while the offense could be in far better shape.

Don't get me wrong. Throughout the minor leagues, the Twins are still far deeper in quality pitchers than hitters. There are very few impact bats on the horizon, which remains troubling. Yet, looking at the Twins' major league roster, you find enough young, controllable, talented hitters to inspire confidence that this offense could be fairly strong for the next several years; to wit: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Brendan Harris, Carlos Gomez, Alexi Casilla, Mike Lamb and Jason Pridie. Granted, some of those players have chance of fizzling out (Gomez, Casilla, Pridie) and some aren't exactly young (Lamb), but all of the hitters listed have a decent shot at being productive hitters and all are locked up for at least the next three seasons. Several of the players listed -- most notably Mauer, Morneau and Young -- could very well rank among the league's elite hitters.

The pitching situation is less encouraging, if not in the long term than almost certainly in the short term. As I mentioned before, the Twins are not lacking in quality pitchers throughout their organization. In Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Kevin Mulvey, Philip Humber and Brian Duensing, the Twins have a collection of major-league ready starters that most teams in the league would envy. The problem is that almost none of these pitchers have legitimate ace potential, and it would be a stretch to project almost any one of these guys as even a strong No. 2. This problem persists throughout the organization's advanced minor league affiliates. There are good prospects there: Anthony Swarzak, Ryan Mullins, Jeff Manship, Oswaldo Sosa, Yohan Pino and Jay Rainville to name a few. Each of those pitchers has a fairly good chance of developing into a big-leaguer at some point, but you'd be hard-pressed to find one with the makeup of a front-line major-league starter.

Dipping into the lower levels of the minor leagues, you find a few guys like Tyler Robertson and Deolis Guerra who have the upside of a top-of-the-rotation starter, but it's awfully difficult to put a ton of stock into pitching prospects who are still in their teens. Losing Johan Santana and Matt Garza has left this team with a lack of power arms outside of Francisco Liriano, so if Liriano struggles in his return from Tommy John surgery, we are potentially looking at a team that is very middle-heavy in terms of starting pitching over the next several years and without much in the way of star power. A rotation filled with solid but unspectacular starters would inevitably rank right in the middle of the league, and that would put a lot of pressure on the offense to make this team a playoff contender.

Over the next several seasons, we could see this team relying on offense to win games a lot more than we ever have in recent Twins history. That method will only work if some of the team's hitters live up to their star potential. Here's wishing good health to Liriano, and hoping guys like Baker and Bonser can step up to provide this staff with the type of above-average performance it will need. There might not be as much help on the horizon as we'd like to think in that department.

The Blame Game

Having passed his physical and reached agreement on a contract that will make him the richest pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana is now officially a member of the New York Mets. In return, the Twins have received a package of prospects that is almost unanimously being labeled as underwhelming. This development has Twins fans desperately seeking a deserving party upon which to pin blame in a situation that seemingly has not been handled very well. I've seen numerous articles leveling scathing criticism against everyone from Carl Pohlad to Bill Smith to Santana himself. My thinking on the subject is that while several people probably could have acted in a way that would have led to better results, no one was completely out of line here. The Twins were put in an unfortunate situation and the result is that they've lost their franchise player for a relative pittance. It's a shame, but I don't think anyone is specifically at fault.

First, let's talk about Santana. Fans seemed to have turned on him for the way he acted during this debacle, claiming that he abused his leverage and backed the Twins into a corner with his self-imposed deadline. We may never know how Santana truly felt or what he actually said behind closed doors, but reading between the lines I think it's fair to say that he didn't particularly want to pitch in Minnesota. It seems clear that Santana's preference was to move into a larger market to showcase himself, and ideally I think he wanted to move to the National League where the lineups are weaker and where he'll be able to bat. This made the Mets a natural fit.

As a fan of the Twins and a proud resident of Minnesota, the thought that Santana was anxious to move elsewhere is somewhat hurtful. But is it really a reason to hold resentment against him? If his preference is to pitch in New York, then he's well within his rights to try and arrange it. Some have accused him of being disloyal for trying to force his way out from a team that helped him become the pitcher he is today, but he did provide the Twins with five years of phenomenal performance, and he was never an open distraction in the clubhouse or unfriendly toward fans. If he wanted to move on, I think we owe it to him to respect his wishes. He was patient throughout the entire offseason, and I don't really see how he is out of line for wanting a resolution now that we're weeks away from Spring Training.

Now, on to Pohlad. In the wake of this trade, the wealthy Twins owner has been painted by numerous scribes as a greedy monster who coaxed a stadium out of the fans only to pocket his earnings and let the team's stars walk when they become expensive. I am far from a Pohlad defender, but I find this criticism to be unfair, at least when applied to the Santana situation.

For the reasons I mentioned above, I'm skeptical that Santana would have signed an extension with the Twins even if they had made an offer that rivaled the contract the Mets gave him. But even if he would have, would it really have been wise for the Twins to hand him such a contract? Signing pitchers to long-term deals is always a risky venture, and committing over $130 million to a guy who will soon enter his 30s could be suicide for a middle-market team like the Twins. Perhaps Santana is worth $25 million as long as he is the best pitcher in baseball, but will he remain the best pitcher in baseball as he ages into his mid-30s? Maybe, but that is far from guaranteed. I think that the Twins' decision not to extend Santana has less to do with a lack of financial resources and more to do with intelligent baseball management. And, in fairness, the team did just sign Justin Morneau to a six-year mega-deal, so it's not as if Pohlad has slammed the wallet shut.

Finally, many have focused their criticism on the general manager Smith for failing to get a package that includes even one true top prospect for Santana. I've frequently seen it written that Smith "overplayed his hand," when negotiating with the Yankees and Red Sox, only to eventually have them pull their offers. Yet, I can nearly guarantee that had Smith accepted one of those team's offers back in December (assuming the reported offers were legitimately on the table), there would be droves of fans and analysts criticizing Smith for acting too quickly and lacking the patience to create a bidding war which could force a better package out of one of the teams. Smith took a risk by playing the waiting game, and in the end it didn't pay off, but I hardly think one can hold it against him.

I'm more than a little disappointed by the package received for Santana, but I can't say I'm angry at any particular person about it. There's just nowhere to justifiably point a finger. The Twins made a competitive offer, Santana wanted to move on, and so Smith made the best deal he could. As I said when analyzing the trade last Wednesday, I'm not entirely sure that trading Santana for this package will ultimately be more beneficial to the team than keeping him for another year and collecting draft picks as free agent compensation, but I have to trust that the Twins see something in these Mets prospects.

Heading Out East

I have been traded to a New York blog. This morning I will fly out to NYC to negotiate a new contract. If talks are unsuccessful, I will return on Saturday evening and dutifully play out my contract with Nick & Nick's Twins Blog.

Should be interesting to be in the Big Apple in the wake of this Santana trade and in the days preceding a New York vs. Boston showdown in the Super Bowl. If I come across anything interesting and have Internet access, I'll be sure to blog about it. Otherwise, I'll be back with another post on Monday. Have a good weekend and thanks to all those who shared their viewpoints on the Santana swap in the comments section yesterday.

A Cold Day in Minnesota

The Twins have been known to surprise us before. Who would have thought that the prospects received back in the Frank Viola trade would help push them to a World Series championship just two years later? Who could have known that the prospects brought over in the Chuck Knoblauch deal would help form the foundation for putting them back into contention after a horrible dry spell in the late '90s? How could anyone have predicted that two of the relatively unknown pitchers received back in the A.J. Pierzynski trade would transform into elite All-Stars, while the third became an important member of the rotation?

Let's face it, the Twins have a track record of success when trading away star players amidst their primes, even if the results initially seem heavily skewed in favor of the other team. Maybe that will be the case with yesterday's deal that likely sends Johan Santana to the Mets in return for four unspectacular prospects. Unfortunately, that seems rather unlikely.

According to reports, the Twins made a final offer to Santana for five years and $100 million. Santana turned the offer down, and he and his agent pressured the Twins to make a decision as soon as possible. With the Red Sox and Yankees both reportedly having backed off with their offers, Bill Smith was forced to take what he could get from the Mets. It ended up being a package that includes center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber.

All that's left is for Santana to pass a physical and for the Mets to reach an agreement with the left-hander on a contract extension for the deal to become official. Since Santana is in tip-top shape and the Mets have the fiscal resources to give him the kind of money he's seeking, it seems very likely that this deal is as good as done.

There was really no way the Twins were going to get equal value for the best pitcher in baseball, and each of the rumored offers from the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets was underwhelming in its own way. Yet, almost each of those deals included at least one player who could be considered a relatively sure bet to produce at the major-league level, a quality which this Mets package lacks. Perhaps it is unfair to compare this package to the rumored superior deals from the Red Sox and Yankees (or even the rumored superior deals from the Mets that included Fernando Martinez and/or Mike Pelfrey) and to accuse Smith of overplaying his hand. After all, there were continual rumblings that Yankees' GM Brian Cashman was unwilling to part with Phil Hughes, and many believed that Boston's only real interest in this sweepstakes was keeping Santana out of the Bronx. Additionally, it is entirely possible that the Mets were never truly considering parting ways with Martinez or Pelfrey. Still, it seems awfully hard to believe that this is the best offer the Twins officially received for Santana, and it's not clear to me that this course of action will be more beneficial to the team than simply hanging onto Santana for another year and taking the draft picks when he departs for free agency following the 2008 season.

In fairness, the players received from the Mets in this deal aren't bad. There's just a lot of questions surrounding them. I first discussed the players involved in the deal a couple weeks ago, when Joe Christensen first reported that the Mets had made the offer. When breaking down the players, I noted that I'm higher on Gomez than most, but that he will need to overcome his alarming plate discipline issues and gain some power to develop into a solid major-league starter. Gomez is a superb athlete with the ability to steal 60+ stolen bases and he has the tools to become an excellent defender in center field with more experience. He could be a star, but he has a long way to go. He was overwhelmed in the majors last year and would likely start this season in Rochester.

I imagine that the Twins view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could eventually transform into a Santana-type talent. At age 18, he has already developed a plus change-up, which will likely become more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. But there are major concerns. His breaking pitches aren't strong, he's already experienced some shoulder issues, and he still doesn't turn 19 until April, which makes him fairly difficult project. Scouts view Guerra as the type of pitcher who could develop into a star in the major leagues, but he has so many hurdles yet to overcome before that point that it's very difficult to factor him into the Twins' plans, short-term or long-term.

The other two pitchers in the deal, Mulvey and Humber, don't project as anything more than middle-of-the-rotation starters, but then again they also seem like the types of players that could end up surprising us, given the Twins' history. Mulvey is probably being underrated by some -- he has had success at each stop in the minors and reached Triple-A last year in just his first professional season. Unfortunately, it's difficult to get excited about him because he lacks a dominating arsenal. Humber was a terrific pitcher in college and a first-round draft pick, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2005 and has been unspectacular since then. Humber does know how to pitch, however, and he's a guy I could see making a name for himself in the Twins' bullpen.

In order for this deal to really work out for the Twins, Gomez and Guerra need to take some significant strides and make good on their considerable potential. Mulvey and Humber aren't likely to separate themselves from the numerous solid pitching prospects already littering the Twins' system, but if they can, it would certainly be an added bonus and would take the heat off of Smith in what appears to be a situation that could have been handled a lot better. The odds aren't necessarily stacked against these four players becoming productive contributors to the Twins, but the fact that the package lacks a relative sure bet like Hughes or Ellsbury, or even Martinez or Jon Lester, makes the swap a rather disappointing one from the Twins' standpoint. Smith has traded an exclamation point for several question marks, and in dealing Santana he has also likely mortgaged the Twins' chances of competing in 2008 with an eye toward the future. Time will tell whether the gamble pays off, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Update: Santana to the Mets

Sorry to be a little late on posting this. Many sources are reporting that the Twins and Mets have agreed to a trade that will send two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana to the Mets in return for a package of four prospects. That package includes outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. The deal is reportedly dependent on the Mets negotiating a contract extension with Santana.

It's awfully tough to feel remotely positive about this trade as a Twins fan. Full analysis tomorrow.

Keeping Everyone Happy

Following the announcement of the Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer contracts on Friday afternoon, Aaron Gleeman posted an analysis on his blog that was -- judging by the reaction in his comments section -- perceived as a rather negative take on the deals. Gleeman's argument is that the $104 million that the team has collectively committed to the two players is quite risky when you take into account that neither player has proven that he can consistently provide more than slightly above-average production for his position. Gleeman did note that keeping relatively young and talented players in Minnesota is "obviously a positive thing," and I doubt he intended for his analysis come off as negative as many people took it, but I think it's fair to say that he is less than thrilled with the contracts.

As usual, Gleeman's analysis is accurate, and I agree with the core of his argument. On multiple occasions here, I have labeled Cuddyer as a fairly mediocre right fielder (which has often raised some debate), and Morneau's hitting line last year was pretty much in line with his career line, which is nothing special for a first baseman. (On an aside, I am fairly confident that Morneau will be a significantly above-average hitter over the life of his contract -- in his case I think it is fair to put more stock into the past two seasons while overlooking his atrocious 2005 campaign to some degree.)

With all that being said, I think that the scope of Gleeman's analysis was a bit narrow. Looking strictly at the statistics and the Twins' payroll situation, it's fairly easy to view these signings as a potentially dangerous risk that may have not been overly savvy. Yet, aside from simply locking up two young players who can hit, these signings accomplish a pair of other important tasks: they please fans and they please players. Those might seem like ambiguous and perhaps unimportant goals, and they're not easily analyzed because they are difficult to qualify, but I think they are important, particularly considering the Twins' current situation.

Just as the construction on a new stadium in downtown Minneapolis starts to hit its stride, the Twins are saying goodbye to some of their most popular players. This offseason, the Twins have parted ways with Torii Hunter, and now appear to be on the verge of dealing Johan Santana. Both of these decisions came about due to money, and with the new stadium being put in place and the revenue in Major League Baseball rising, fans can easily get a bad message. Bill Smith and the Twins felt that they needed to make a statement and show that this team is willing to spend money and compete, and so they did so by signing a few core players to some fairly large contracts. Is there risk associated with these contracts? Naturally, but during his tenure as general manager Smith has not shown a major aversion to risk, which is something I respect.

Letting a fan favorite who was the team's best hitter last year walk in free agency is a significant risk, but the Twins seemingly made little effort to re-sign Hunter. Trading the team's best young healthy pitcher for a toolsy but unproven 22-year-old outfielder is a significant risk, but Smith dealt Matt Garza for Delmon Young. And signing a first-baseman who is coming off a relatively mediocre campaign to the largest contract in team history is a significant risk, but the Twins now owe Morneau $80 million over the next six years.

These moves have carried some risk, to be sure, but I would argue that they are necessary risks and that the upside in each of these moves has far outweighed the downside. Losing Hunter might hurt this year and perhaps next year, but I think most would agree that he will not be worth $18 million in 2011 or 2012. Young is almost certain to develop into at least a solidly above-average hitter, even if he never makes good on the Manny Ramirez comparisons. And while perhaps Morneau's true self is not the MVP-caliber hitter he was in 2006, he is a great bet to provide above-average production and very good power to the middle of this lineup over the next six years. That's worth a lot in a lineup that lacks punch and an organization that has very little on the horizon in terms of promising power hitters. In his article, Gleeman rightfully notes that it shouldn't be overly difficult to identify inexpensive players that can provide solid production at power-hitting positions through various means, but it cannot be taken for granted that the Twins simply have not been able to do this. Having a guy like Morneau locked up is important for that reason.

Cuddyer's contract is reasonable, in terms of years and cost, and I think that's a pretty difficult contract to criticize. Morneau's contract is a lot larger, and that seems to be where critics are leveling most of their concern. Over the last four years of the deal, Morneau will be making a significant amount of money -- $14M/yr between the 2010 and 2013 seasons. Yet, these most expensive seasons all come with the Twins' new ballpark in place, and as long as the league's revenues continue to rise and the free agent marketplace continues to escalate, there's more than a good chance that those salaries will look like a bargain by that time.

With players complaining about a lack of commitment to winning, and fans scratching their heads over an inexplicable lack of spending, the Twins needed to make a statement, and they did so with these contracts. There's risk, but it is an acceptable amount and it is not likely to cripple the team's payroll anytime soon. Whether or not they were incredibly smart, these signings illustrate a commitment to winning to players and fans that should make everybody happy.

New York, New York (and Notes)

Let me start out today's post with a personal note that is somewhat relevant. On Thursday morning, I will be heading to New York for a short three-day trip. In and of itself, that's not all that exciting (well, for me it is because I've never been to The Big Apple), but what spices things up is that I'll be there on Super Bowl weekend as the Giants prepare to take on the Patriots in the year's biggest sporting event. Not only that, but it seems like there is a very good chance that Johan Santana will be traded to a New York team within the next week. I think it would be utterly crazy to be in New York at the time a trade was pulled off to send Santana to the Yankees or Mets. I'll walk around Times Square wearing my Santana jersey and I'll be sure to share what types of reactions or comments I get.

Anyway, a few notes from over the weekend:

* From the Department of Double Takes, check out this statement that the Pioneer Press' Charley Walters made when wrapping up a blurb predicting that Santana will be traded within the next ten days:

It's clear that Santana, acquired in a Rule 5 minor league draft trade deal in 1999, has become a baseball mercenary who doesn't care where he pitches as long he's paid the optimal amount.

I had to read this a couple times because it came out of nowhere within the context of the article. I wouldn't say that Walters' charge is "clear" at all -- at least it is not evidenced by anything he wrote in the article. Perhaps behind closed doors, Santana truly is the type of disloyal and greedy mercenary that Walters makes him out to be, but none of the quotes Santana has given to the media have really illustrated anything to that effect.

* Along with Walters' seemingly unsubstantiated jab at Santana, yesterday's edition of the Pioneer Press also featured an encouraging update on the progress of Francisco Liriano courtesy of Phil Miller. Says Frisco:

"There is nothing to tell anymore, because my arm feels great now. I can't say it hurts this much, or I still have this work to do, anything like that," Liriano said. "I think I'm ready to go, right now. There is no soreness, no pain, nothing. It's the same every time I throw - there's nothing for me to say because I can pitch normally."

The article goes on to state that Liriano is now throwing all of his pitches -- including the worrisome slider -- without pain and that he has no plans of making changes to his mechanics.

It's certainly great to hear these things, but I must confess I'm a little wary of taking Liriano's personal medical judgments at face value. As many will recall, Liriano downplayed the significance of his elbow issues during the 2006 season, and it later came to light that he was pitching through some serious pain. Hiding his injury may have worsened the problems for Liriano. With that, said, if what he's saying now is true, and he can continue to pitch pain-free through spring training and into the season, the Twins might have their ace after all even with Santana gone. That'd be great, because as much as I like Scott Baker, the idea of having him featured as the team's No. 1 starter is a bit frightening.

* I didn't make it to TwinsFest this weekend, but I've heard from people that were there and encountered Boof Bonser that the slimmed-down right-hander was barely recognizable. Apparently Bonser responded to challenges from his coaches to lose some weight and shed 20 lbs during the offseason. After a disappointing 2007 campaign, a rebound year for Bonser could be crucial to this rotation.

* Speaking of TwinsFest, be sure to check out the Curlz and Curveballs blog for a nice series of photos from the couple's Friday night trip to the Metrodome gathering.

* Here's a name to add to the long list of people who are fully aware that Michael Cuddyer should not be playing center field: Michael Cuddyer. It seems that the only name not on that list could well be that of the Twins' manager.

You Better Lock It Up!

As the annual TwinsFest celebration kicked off at the Metrodome yesterday, the Twins made a move to generate some excitement by announcing long-term extensions for Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Morneau's deal is the largest in club history, spanning six years and totaling $80 million. Cuddyer's deal is considerably shorter, registering at three years/$23 million with a club option for a fourth year worth $10.5 million.'

Let me start off by saying that I'm pretty happy with both of these signings. When analyzing the arbitration-eligible Twins last week, I advocated that the Twins stick with a one-year commitment to Cuddyer; yet, it's tough to take issue with this contract. The years and money are both reasonable, and I love the club option for a fourth year. At worst, Cuddyer is probably about a league-average right fielder, and if he can find his 2006 form and revert back into that type of hitter, the Twins can activate the fourth year and perhaps get a bargain.

Then there's the Morneau deal. I think one can easily make the argument that the Twins are overpaying for Morneau. Over the course of his career, he has really only been an average first baseman overall, and it seems dumbfounding that he can collect a contract worth $80 million when the comparably valuable Joe Mauer signed for $33 million just a year ago. With all that being said, Morneau is a very good hitter and I am fairly optimistic that he'll be an above-average first baseman over the length of this contract. He is one of the team's top hitters, and in a system as sparse on bats as the this one, locking him up for the next six years is an important step. Moreover, I think that this contract sends a positive message to the players and fans.

With baseball's revenue rising and a new stadium on the horizon, the Twins have money to spend. They committed a nice big chunk of it yesterday to a pair of important members of the team. I think both of these players have more upside than downside, and it's tough to see these contracts really coming back to hurt the time. A nice, aggressive move by Bill Smith. Now, we see what effect the moves have on the Johan Santana situation.

Comfortably Average

Last season, the Twins ranked 12th among 14 American League teams in runs scored. It's not difficult to see why -- they received sub par offensive contributions from almost every position. Don't take my word for it, take a look. Here are the 2007 American League averages for OPS at each position, followed by what the Twins got from those positions:

AL catchers: .713
Twins catchers: .750

AL first basemen: .790
Twins first basemen: .812

AL second basemen: .755
Twins second basemen: .640

AL third basemen: .761
Twins third basemen: .631

AL shortstops: .713
Twins shortstops: .656

AL left fielders: .760
Twins left fielders: .677

AL center fielders: .754
Twins center fielders: .836

AL right fielders: .824
Twins right fielders: .764

AL designated hitters: .802
Twins designated hitters: .737

So there you have it. The Twins were well above-average at center field (thanks to Torii Hunter, who is now gone) and marginally above-average at catcher and first base. Outside of those positions, the Twins got substantially below-average offensive production from each position on the field.

Needless to say, getting league-average production at most positions would be a major improvement. And while it doesn't seem like a particularly lofty goal, it's what the middle-market Twins will be shooting for this year. Can they accomplish it? Since positional averages tend to be fairly stable from year to year, we can use last year's numbers as benchmarks going forward. Let's break it down on a position-by-position basis.

CATCHER
This is a particularly weak offensive position -- AL catchers hit only .253/.318/.395 collectively last year. So even though Joe Mauer regressed and struggled with injuries for much of the season and Mike Redmond didn't set the world on fire, the Twins still finished with an OPS 37 points higher than the league mean. It's perfectly reasonable to see Mauer rebounding with a healthy year and putting up numbers somewhere between his 2006 and 2007 campaigns, in which case the Twins should be well above-average at this position.

FIRST BASE
I'm not sure what to think about Justin Morneau at this point. He had a solid debut in 2004, he was horrible in 2005, splendid in 2006, and fairly mediocre overall in 2007 (thanks to a great first half that was marred by an awful second half). I don't know what happened in the final months last year, and I'd like to believe he'll look more like the 2006 version in 2008, but to be safe I'll predict that he'll finish with numbers similar to his final line last year, making him average offensively.

SECOND BASE
The likely starter here is Brendan Harris. Last year, with the Devil Rays, Harris hit .286/.343/.434, which was right in line with the AL average for second basemen (.284/.339/.416). I think it's fairly reasonable to expect him to repeat that performance and provide average production at second base in the upcoming season, which would be a huge upgrade for a team that was 115 points below the league average in OPS at the position last year.

THIRD BASE
This is an interesting one. If Mike Lamb is used as a full-time player here and he receives 500+ at-bats, it's likely that he will post an OPS around his career mark of .761 (which is, coincidentally, identical to the AL league average for third basemen last year). However, if the Twins shield him against left-handed pitchers to some degree, much like the Astros have for the past several seasons, Lamb has a great chance of putting up an OPS in the area of .825, which would be well above-average. This depends on Twins identifying a righty-hitting third baseman who could put up a solid OPS in limited duty against southpaws (Matt Macri might fit the bill). In that case, this team could potentially be very solid relative to the rest of the league offensively. Defense, of course, is another story.

SHORTSTOP
Here's the first position we come across where the Twins are almost guaranteed to be well below-average. Adam Everett has a career .656 OPS and there's little reason to believe he'll be any better than that this year.

LEFT FIELD
This is a tough one to predict. The average AL left fielder hit .275/.335/.426 last year, while Delmon Young hit .288/.316/.408 to fall below that mark. Of course, he was only 22. Many optimists are predicting a huge jump for Young here in his second full season, and he certainly has the tools to do it. However, I think some of the people anticipating Hunter-like numbers are setting themselves up for disappointment. Young played in every single game last year and managed only 13 home runs and a .724 OPS. To add 15 home runs to that total and .120 points or so to his OPS would be a staggering leap. ZiPS, a predictive tool used at Baseball Think Factory, forecasts only a slight improvement for Young next year and sees him hitting .292/.323/.424. That seems pretty conservative and I think he'll do better than, but even that would be league-average so I'd say the Twins are a lock to be average at the very least in left field.

CENTER FIELD
This is a obviously a big question mark. If Johan Santana is traded, it remains likely that the 2008 starting center fielder will be a player received in that trade. As long as Santana is still in Minnesota, the favorite to take the job at this point is probably Jason Pridie. Most agree that Pridie is capable of putting up solid numbers, but it's tough to predict him being an above-average hitter as a 24-year-old rookie with only 245 at-bats above Double-A. I'd say the Twins project to be below average in center field at this point, but not by a whole lot. Obviously, this situation is subject to change.

RIGHT FIELD
Michael Cuddyer had a tough year last year, in large part because he was derailed late in the season by a thumb injury. Still, I felt Cuddyer was playing over his head in 2006 and he's realistically probably closer to his career .796 OPS than the .866 OPS he posted in that magical season. Nevertheless, there's no reason to believe Cuddyer won't be at least average in 2008 as long as he can remain healthy.

DESIGNATED HITTER
It's astonishing how little production the Twins have gotten over the past several seasons from a position in which the player's sole duty is to hit. That figures to change this year, with a (hopefully) healthy and adjusted Jason Kubel likely taking over full-time. As a DH last year, Kubel hit .302/.385/.500. If he can even approach that type of production in the upcoming season, the Twins should be very strong at the DH spot, and well above-average.


CONCLUSIONS
So we have a couple of positions where the Twins project to be below average, but for the most part it appears that this team should be at least on-par with the rest of the league at every position from an offensive standpoint. That doesn't even take into account the very real possibility that a guy like Mauer or Young busts out with a huge season. Of course, as we've been conditioned to learn around these parts, you can't take anything for granted and there's always a very real possibility of guys having down years. Factoring that into the equation, along with injuries, I'd say it's likely that the Twins have about an average offense overall in 2008 -- perhaps better depending on how the center field situation sorts out. This isn't a lineup that's going to light the world on fire like the Tigers or the Yankees, but with great pitching it should be enough to compete.

Of course, this begs the question as to whether or not the Twins will actually have great pitching. And that is a topic for another day.

One-Year Deals and Cuddy in Center

Last week I wrote about the Twins' five arbitration-eligible players, noting that I felt it would be wise to lock up two of them -- Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- to long-term deals. In the following days, the Twins signed both of those players to contracts, but they were both one-year commitments, with Morneau's being worth $7.4 million and Kubel's worth $1.3 million. The Twins also agreed to a one-year deal with Juan Rincon that will pay him $2.475 million in 2008. That is a relatively small increase from his $2 million salary a year ago, which makes sense given his struggles.

It's disappointing to see the Twins fail to lock down Morneau and Kubel, yet understandable given the uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana and his future with the team. Plus, longer extensions could be reached with either player in the future. As La Velle noted on his blog last week, "Signing Morneau to a one-year deal doesn’t mean they can’t tear up the contract for a long-term deal. They did that exact thing a few years ago with Corey Koskie." I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen with Morneau after the Santana issue gets sorted out, although I doubt they'll look to sign Kubel to a long-term extension this offseason as much as I think it would be a good idea. I can hardly fault the Twins if they remain a little concerned about Kubel's knees.

The Twins now have two arbitration-eligible players remaining: Matt Guerrier and Michael Cuddyer. Guerrier filed for $1.15 million while the club filed for $750,000; I imagine the two sides will reach a deal right around $1 million in the near future. The gap between Cuddyer and the club is larger, as Cuddyer filed for $6.2 million -- $1.5 million more than the team's offer of $4.7 million. Last year, Cuddyer and the Twins very nearly went before an arbitrator, but reached an agreement at $3.75 million at the last second. Given the disparity between the numbers filed by the two sides this year, it seems quite possible that this case could go before an arbitrator, but the Twins are financially in a position where they can easily afford to pay Cuddyer around $5.5 million, so reaching a mid-point would make sense and save a lot of hassle for both sides.

Speaking of Cuddyer, many feathers were ruffled this weekend when Ron Gardenhire had the following quote in a Charley Walters column in the Sunday edition of the Pioneer Press:

Torii Hunter's successor in center field for the Twins could be Michael Cuddyer.

"With Delmon Young in right and Jason Kubel in left," manager Ron Gardenhire said.

That's a consideration of Gardenhire's if minor leaguers Denard Span and Jason Pridie can't convince the manager during spring training that they're ready to succeed Hunter, who left for the Los Angeles Angels via free agency.

"I'm going to talk to Cuddy about it," Gardenhire said.

The idea of Cuddyer playing center field is nothing short of horrifying, given the fact that his range is sub par even for a right fielder. However, I think the reaction to this quote has been a little over-the-top. I realize the information is coming straight from the horse's mouth, but I can't imagine that Gardenhire would ever actually pencil Cuddyer into center field. In such a scenario, it would seem that Craig Monroe would be the full-time DH. That's bad enough as it is, because there's no way Monroe should be counted on as an everyday player, but if that's truly what Gardenhire wants to do, it would make a lot more sense to DH Kubel and have Monroe play center field. That's still far from ideal, and one would hope that the Twins can acquire a legitimate center fielder before the offseason is over, or that Pridie can step up and seize the job in spring training.

Friday Notes

Happy Friday! It's back to school for me next week as I embark upon what will potentially be my last semester at the University of Minnesota, but for now here are a few notes on various Twins-related topics.

* ESPN.com's Buster Olney opined in the Wednesday edition of his daily blog that the best option for Bill Smith and the Twins would be to hang onto Johan Santana, even if extending him is not a possibility. Says Olney:

If I was in Smith's shoes, I'd keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.

This is a good and -- I think -- often overlooked point. The Twins could potentially have one of the strongest groups of hitters in the middle of their lineup of any team in the American League this year. Olney doesn't even mention Jason Kubel, who in my mind could be the best hitter among the aforementioned group in 2008. Many people look at the big acquisitions by Detroit this winter and a Cleveland team that is mostly intact from its playoff run in 2007, and write off the Twins as a third-place team at best. While that may be where I'd pick the Twins to finish if I were ranking the AL Central teams right now, I think the Twins are are a lot closer to competing for a playoff spot than many people think as long as Santana is leading their rotation.

* Twins minor-league guru Dianna of the blog Rookie Whites noted yesterday that Twins' prospect Jose Mijares was in a traffic accident early Sunday in which he suffered a fracture in his left elbow that required surgery. Dianna relays that while "the operation was deemed a success," it will be two or three months before Mijares is able to throw again. Later in the day, Joe Christensen confirmed the report with Bill Smith, who stated that Mijares could be out of action four to six months.

Being that Mijares is a left-handed pitcher, it's disturbing to hear that he damaged his left elbow in the accident. Mijares is a highly intriguing prospect in that, while he has struggled mightily with control over the course of his career, he has electric stuff that has been compared to Francisco Liriano and many feel that if he can conquer his command issues he can develop into a dominant major-league reliever. He had been showing marked improvement in his control while playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he held a 1.86 ERA over 37 appearances. Mijares is only 23, but this incident could cause a considerable lag in his development, which is unfortunate given that the Twins need him to put things together as quickly as possible. There is a good possibility that Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon and Dennys Reyes will all be gone after the 2008 season, leaving a need for some young players to step in and restock the bullpen. Here's hoping Mijares experiences a speedy recovery.

* File this headline under "Obvious."

* Earlier this week, Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus put together a list of nine young players who are "breakout candidates" in 2008. Fifth on the list is Kubel, about whom Sheehan has this to say:

• Jason Kubel: While playing in the Arizona Fall League in 2004, Kubel, then 22 and considered one of the best hitting prospects in the game, suffered a devastating knee injury that cost him the entire 2005 season. Although he came back and played in ’06, he wasn’t remotely the same hitter. Most notably, Kubel’s post-injury strikeout rate has been much higher—147 in 835 PA, versus 193 in 1770 PA prior to the injury. That’s not just a result of playing at higher levels: that’s evidence of damage to the engine.

  What we saw in ’07 was Kubel finally get back to the hitter he was before the injury. In the season’s first two months, Kubel struck out 33 times and walked 11 in 165 PA. In the next two months, those numbers were 21/10 in 148 PA: a big drop in strikeout rate and K/BB. Over the last two months: 25/18 in 153 PA. Kubel, a disciplined hitter coming through the minors, regained that discipline in ’07. His batting average and power followed. He’s 26 this season, and may actually be the Twins’ best hitter during it; better than Morneau, better than Mauer.

These are the same trends I've noted with Kubel, which is a major reason I'm expecting big things from him in the upcoming season (as you may have gathered). Another fact that isn't mentioned here about Kubel is that despite some of his struggles last season, he consistently drove the ball hard. Kubel finished the season with a line-drive percentage of 22.1; that is considerably better than the rest of the team's hard hitters, such as Mauer (17.9%), Morneau (15.9%), Cuddyer (18.7%) and Torii Hunter (14%). In fact, if Kubel had enough at-bats to qualify, he would have tied Jorge Posada for sixth in the AL in LD% last year.

What's depressing? The only 2007 Twin that actually ranked in the Top 25 in the AL in LD% was the now-departed Jason Bartlett, who ranked 19th at 20.1 percent. What makes that less depressing? Brendan Harris and Delmon Young ranked 10th and 11th, respectively.

* Sticking with Sheehan's article, as interesting as it was to see Kubel's name halfway down the list of breakout candidates, I was perhaps even more intrigued by the player listed below him:

• Melky Cabrera. Cabrera went backwards in ’07, but not by enough for concern. Remember that he is just 23 years old and has more than 1100 plate appearances in the majors, with average to average-plus defense (good physical tools, but very raw, takes bad routes) and a very good 129/96 K/BB. He is a mature player offensively, patient at the plate and fair on the bases (25-for-35 stealing in his career). One interesting quirk is his G/F ratio, which is 1.63 for his career and was a whopping 1.81 last season. Cabrera is listed at 5’11” and 200 pounds. He’s not Willy Taveras, but rather a player who should be developing power and learning how to drive the ball, rather than hitting the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time.

  I’m reminded of Alex Rios, who doesn’t look a thing like Cabrera. Rios was largely disappointing in 2004 and 2005, hitting just 11 homers in more than 900 at-bats, with an isolated power of 117. The problem: Rios was hitting the ball on the ground too much, a 1.82 G/F in those two seasons. Starting in ’06, Rios put the ball in the air more than half the time, and became a star. When you look at Cabrera’s body, his established control of the strike zone, and his ability to hold his own at a young age, you recognize that all it’s going to take is for him to start elevating the ball. Cabrera may not get there in 2008, but he’s going to pop 80 extra-base hits and slug .500 in a season very, very soon.

Cabrera, who has been mentioned frequently in Santana trade rumors, gets bashed by a lot of fans for reasons I cannot surmise. He reached the major leagues as a 20-year-old in 2005, and has held his own in the big leagues over 1,024 at-bats with a .275/.340/.388 line. Many Twins fans seem to be sour on him because he posted an unimpressive .718 OPS last year, but it is essential to note that he was only 22 years old for most of the season and playing in a fairly high-pressure environment in New York.

I'm a fan of Cabrera, and while he doesn't profile as a superstar, I certainly think he can be an above-average outfielder in the major leagues for many years. That's a big part of the reason that, in my mind, the reported Yankees' offer of Phil Hughes+Cabrera+prospect is by far the best one on the table for Santana at this point.

Extensions

The Twins have several players eligible for arbitration this year, and the time is nearing for the organization to decide on a course of action to take with each of these players. Generally, the way arbitration works is that each player and his agent will come up with a reasonable figure for a 2008 salary, and the team will come up with a different number they find reasonable. At this point, the Twins have three basic options: negotiate to a mid-point figure and sign the player to a one-year deal, take the case before an arbitrator who will decide which figure is more fair, or come to terms on a multi-year contract.

The Twins had six arbitration-eligible players last year, and they reached mid-point one-year agreements with four of them while locking up Nick Punto and Joe Mauer to multi-year deals. This year the Twins will have to make decisions on five arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players usually prefer to avoid going in front of the arbitrator, as the process can damage the relationship between the sides, so we'll rule out that possibility and today I'll look at each of the Twins' arbitration-eligible players on a case-by-case basis to analyze which players merit a multi-year contract (Deal), and which ones would be better served with only a one-year commitment (No Deal).

1. Justin Morneau - 1B

Many were frustrated that the Twins didn't lock up Morneau a year ago following his MVP 2006 campaign, as the team instead settled on a $4.5 million one-year deal to avoid arbitration. Even though Morneau's numbers declined in 2007, his salary is still likely to nearly double here in his second year of arbitration.

Morneau is the Twins' best slugger, and the departure of Torii Hunter makes Morneau's role on this team all the more vital. Locking him up long-term should be a high priority, and fortunately the Twins have the money to make it happen, particularly with Johan Santana's salary likely coming off the books by next year at the latest.

The Twins should do the same thing with Morneau that they did with Mauer last year, locking their young star up with a four-year contract that will buy out his first year of free agency. I'm thinking something along the lines of four years/$50 million would do the trick.

VERDICT: DEAL

2. Michael Cuddyer - RF

After a breakout campaign in 2006 that saw him post an .866 OPS (more than 100 points higher than his previous career high), Cuddyer regressed in 2007, hitting for a solid average and on-base percentage but posting a slugging percentage nearly 70 points lower than his '06 figure while hitting just 16 home runs in 144 games. Overall, Cuddyer was not a bad hitter, but the Twins need him to be a legitimate power threat, and he's been unable to do that over the course of his career with the exception of that 2006 season.

The upcoming season should be a big one for Cuddyer. Hunter is gone, and it's unclear what kind of jump Delmon Young will be able to make, leaving a strong possibility that the Twins will be relying on Cuddyer as their big right-handed stick in the lineup. If he can't produce more power than he did last year, the offense could potentially be in some trouble.

I personally believe that Cuddyer is a pretty mediocre right fielder, and losing him to free agency ultimately would not be the worst thing in the world. The Twins have a pair of good young corner outfielders in Young and Jason Kubel, both of whom will probably be better hitters than Cuddyer in the long run. If Cuddy has a big season and proves that he truly is the type of hitter he was in 2006, then perhaps the Twins can revisit the idea of an extension at a later time; for the time being, another one-year deal is probably wisest.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

3. Jason Kubel - LF

Due to unfortunate circumstances, the Twins haven't gotten much production from Kubel during his cheap serfdom years. Kubel's service clock ran while he missed the entire 2005 season with a knee injury, and continued to run for the following two seasons while he struggled to find his form. However, in the second half last year, Kubel showed the type of promise many fans have been waiting for by hitting .303/.379/.511. My feeling is that Kubel's second half in '07 is a preview of things to come.

I view Kubel as the type of hitter who can ultimately be an anchor in this lineup, be it in left field, right field, or at designated hitter. Since he has yet to piece together a great full season, his price tag will not be overly high. I think the Twins would be wise to sign him to a long-term deal that will buy out his remaining arbitration years and perhaps take him a year or two into free agency. In the end, he could wind up being a great value.

VERDICT: DEAL

4. Matt Guerrier - RP

Guerrier went from solid long reliever to premier setup man last year, posting a 2.35 ERA while frequently pitching in high-pressure situations out of the back of the Twins' bullpen. With the escalating market for relief pitching, the conventional wisdom states that the Twins would be wise to lock him up as quickly as they can. However, seeing as how this is Guerrier's first year of arbitration eligibility, and seeing as how his 2007 season came out of the blue to a large degree, I think the Twins would be wise to stick with a one-year commitment for the time being to see what they've really got in Guerrier. If he proves to be the reliable reliever he appeared to be last year, then next year the Twins should lock him up and solidify his spot as an important member of their 'pen.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

5. Juan Rincon - RP

Rincon has seen his numbers decline for three straight seasons now, culminating in a brutal 2007 campaign that saw the formerly dominant setup man post a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Given his unstable performances, there's really no need to try and lock up Rincon beyond this year; in fact, considering that his price tag will likely be around $3 million, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins seriously gave serious consideration to non-tendering him back in December. It would be great if Rincon could recapture his magic in 2008 and return to being a key member of this bullpen, but given his recent trends, it is somewhat difficult to see that taking place.

VERDICT: NO DEAL

Meet the Mets

Joe Christensen had an article in the Star Tribune yesterday reporting that the Mets may be the most likely eventual destination for Johan Santana, noting that they have reportedly offered the Twins a package that includes outfielder Carlos Gomez along with pitchers Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.

I've always felt that the Mets were a logical trading partner, in that they have a greater need for Santana than the Yankees or Red Sox and thus may be willing to take their offers one step further than either of those clubs. Furthermore, there is little doubt that the Twins would rather send their star left-hander to the National League so as to avoid being forced to face him a couple times during the regular season and -- more frighteningly -- in the AL playoffs.

Christensen reports that the Twins have "told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez." That's not exactly a minor toss-in, as Martinez is the Mets' top prospect and one of the better outfield prospects in baseball. Yet, if the Mets can make that happen, this is potentially an exciting package with a lot of upside. Martinez reached Double-A last season and held his own despite being just 18 years old, which is extremely impressive. He has tools that scouts rave about; then again, he has only accumulated 563 professional at-bats at this point, and he hasn't put up any jaw-dropping numbers as of yet (which is understandable, given his age), so making him the centerpiece of a Santana deal is a risky proposition.

As for the package the Mets have reportedly already offered, it has some potential but probably isn't significantly better than the offers the Yankees and Red Sox have made. I'm higher on Gomez than most and I like his chances to turn into a Jose Reyes type player. At 22, he's one of the fastest players in all of baseball, which makes him a very exciting player to watch, and I believe he'll build on his patience and power, both of which are fairly meager at this point. The lack of plate discipline is particularly alarming, as he'll never be able to put his blazing speed to good use unless he can get on base at a decent rate, but he is young and raw.

Along with Gomez, Guerra is the other enticing piece in the Mets' reported offer. A Venezuelan right-hander who won't turn 19 until April, Guerra has already put in a full season at Advanced Single-A, posting decent numbers against older and more experienced hitters. At 6'5" and 220 lbs., Guerra is an imposing figure on the mound and he brings a very good changeup which could become even more effective as he adds velocity to his fastball. Of course, Guerra is still at least a couple years away, and judging teenage pitching prospects is always a tricky task, so naturally there is a lot of risk involved with making him the centerpiece pitcher in a Santana deal.

Mulvey and Humber, the two others mentioned in the package, are decent pitchers who I don't believe will develop into above-average major-leaguers. The Twins already have numerous similar pitchers in the shape of guys like Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing and Jeff Manship -- guys who can put the ball in the strike zone consistently but lack exceptional stuff. I'd prefer to see the punchless Twins get more offense out of a Santana deal than one speedy center field who could well become the next Juan Pierre, which is why the Mets' offer isn't overly appealing unless Martinez is involved.

At this point, with the offers that are reportedly on the table, I still feel that the Yankees' package is the best. Phil Hughes remains the best player mentioned in any trade discussions, Melky Cabrera provides a solid young outfielder, and the additional prospect or two added to the deal would help stock the Twins' system. The Mets, however, appear to be serious bidders, and if they can adjust their deal a bit and find a way to include both Gomez and Martinez, they might be the club that comes out on top in these lengthy Santana Sweepstakes.

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On an aside, if you're interested in reading what Mets fans are saying about this proposed deal, you can check this post and its comments over at Metsblog.com.

We Gotta Do This F***in' Thing Over Again, 'Cause They Just F***ed It Up

Another year, another Hall of Fame snub for Bert Blyleven. The Baseball Writers' Association of America had their votes tallied yesterday, and only Goose Gossage had his name on the necessary percentage of ballots (85.3 percent) to surpass the 75 percent threshold and achieve entry to the Hall of Fame. Blyleven failed to get elected for an eleventh straight year, although he did find his name on 61.9 percent of ballots, which is a considerable increase from last year's 47 percent.

Joe Christensen called the boost in percentage for Blyleven "a big jump," adding that the increase is a good sign that Blyleven will reach the Hall eventually, a notion which was very much in doubt after he saw his support drop six percentage points last year from the year before. Perhaps this year's results should be viewed as an encouraging sign, but it still frustrates me each time I see the voters fail to give Blyleven his proper due.

Obviously, I'm a major believer that Blyleven belongs in the Hall of Fame. I won't go into a lengthy tirade about all the reasons I feel this way (you can already find material like that in numerous other places, including here, here and here); suffice to say that nearly every anti-Blyleven argument centers in some way around his win-loss record, which was heavily influenced by the unfortunately mediocre teams he tended to play for. This is the same type of flawed thinking that prevented Johan Santana from winning the Cy Young in 2005, and it's a systematic issue in the BBWAA that drives me batty.

Other former Twins to receive votes were Jack Morris (42.9 percent) and first-timer Chuck Knoblauch (>1 percent). I'm not by any means a believer that Morris belongs in the Hall, and the fact that Knoblauch received even one vote is somewhat laughable. Still, another snub for Blyleven has me peeved. Here's hoping that his luck changes within the next couple years.

Center of Attention

Ah, a new year. It means we can all make resolutions for ourselves that will undoubtedly fade away within a matter of weeks. It means we will all spend the next month or two scribbling out the "07" that we accidentally wrote in the date section of our checks, and replace it with "08." But most importantly (at least for nerds like me), it means that pitchers and catchers shall be reporting for spring training in less than two months.

Naturally, there has been little action in the world of the Twins over the past few weeks, which is why nearly the entire blogosphere has been a virtual graveyard. Johan Santana has not been traded, and he might not be. As things stand, the Twins could field a pretty decent team with an established starter at every position -- with one exception. There is no obvious replacement for Torii Hunter in center field. The prevailing assumption has been that the answer would come over in a Santana trade, but with the very real possibility that Santana will still be a Twin in April, an answer might have to be found internally.

For yesterday's Pioneer Press, Phil Miller penned an article on Jason Pridie, a center field prospect who came over in the Delmon Young trade and seems to be the leading internal candidate to fill the team's vacancy in center field. Pridie is an interesting case, in that the Twins showed interest in him back in 2006 when they invited him to spring training as a Rule 5 draftee. Pridie did not make the Twins' roster and was sent back to the Rays organization, where he went on to put together a very poor campaign, batting .230/.281/.304 in Double-A as a 23-year-old. Last year, however, Pridie broke out with a big year, batting .290/.331/.441 in 71 games at Double-A before advancing to Triple-A for 63 games, where he raked to the tune of .318/.375/.539.

As Miller mentions in his article, Pridie is the only center fielder on the Twins' 40-man roster aside from Denard Span, so many view those two as the contending candidates for the starting spot in center field should the Twins fail to find an answer externally. One thing must be stressed here: Span is not a legitimate candidate to start in the big leagues next season.

Because Span and Pridie are both lefty-hitting center fielders with good speed and experience in Triple-A, people tend to group them together as options for the Twins' spot in center field. Both players were selected in the 2002 draft (Span with the No. 20 pickl; Pridie with the No. 43), and both will be 24 on Opening Day.

It is important to note, though, that Pridie appears to be a far superior option than Span. The two players are similar in that both have shown the ability to hit for a decent batting average -- Pridie is a .279 career hitter in the minors; Span .283 -- while neither has exhibited a whole lot of plate discipline. This prevents either player from looking like an ideal leadoff hitter, but the nice thing about Pridie is that he has some power. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Pridie racked up 32 doubles, 11 triples and 14 homers, while also stealing 26 bases on 36 attempts. Span, meanwhile, has hit a total of seven homers in nearly 2,000 minor-league at-bats, and he set a career high last year with a total of 30 extra-base hits in Rochester. It might be a promising sign that Span has seemingly gone from having no power to having slight power, but he still slugged only .355 and along with the marginal rise in power came a drop-off in batting average (his .267 average tied a career low) and a rise in strikeouts (he struck out in 18 percent of his at-bats, his highest percentage since 2004). Furthermore, for a guy whose game is supposedly based on his tremendous speed, Span has failed to even turn himself into a legitimate base-stealing threat; his career high for stolen bases is 25 and his career success rate is a mediocre 66 percent.

Pridie has been inconsistent over the course of his career thus far, some of which can be attributed to injuries. He has shown several flashes of talent though, and the Twins clearly recognize that which is why they have apparently coveted him for some time. He needs to hone his on-base skills and improve his plate discipline in order to become the top-of-the-order hitter the Twins need him to be, but his combination of speed and ability to poke the ball over the fence make him an intriguing prospect and a far more attractive candidate for the center field job in the upcoming season than Span.