Position Analysis: Right Field

Likely Starter: Michael Cuddyer
2009 Stats: .276/.342/.520, 32 HR, 94 RBI

Cuddyer brings big value to the Twins on and off the field.

Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones

Plodding right fielders who can hit post an 850 OPS while playing marginal defense aren't terribly uncommon, and that's basically the mold that Michael Cuddyer falls into. Yet, his value to the Twins stretches far beyond those traits.

He's the big right-handed power stick that can break up the big left-handed boppers in the middle of the Twins lineup. He's the cannon-armed defender who has kept even speedy runners from trying to take the extra base on hits to right field. He's the longest-tenured member of the Twins, a charismatic veteran and a clubhouse leader. One could argue that the $19 million Cuddyer will make over the next two seasons is exorbitant, given that players with his skill set are generally available at a lower cost. But the Twins are paying for a lot more than what shows up on the stat sheet.

Cuddyer demonstrated his value late in the 2009 season, when Justin Morneau's back injury forced the outfielder to don a first baseman's mitt and take over a position he'd barely played before during the most crucial stretch of the season. Cuddyer didn't complain; in fact, he stepped up and took his game to an all-new level, batting .325 and cranking eight homers while driving in 24 runs over the team's final 21 games. The Twins went 17-4 during that stretch, and Cuddyer -- who'd had a relatively mediocre season at that point -- was the offensive catalyst. Seeing him power the offense as he did during that final stretch has to make fans giddy to see what he'll be able to do this year, back in his natural position and sandwiched between two of the league's most feared left-handed power hitters.

Indeed, Cuddyer's 843 career OPS against southpaws looms large in the Twins' lefty-heavy lineup. He figures to garner plenty of RBI opportunities this year with a set of quality hitters in front of him. Health is always a concern for Cuddyer, who had his performance hampered in both 2007 and 2008 by injuries, but if he can stay healthy he'll be a crucial cog in the Twins' lineup. His range in the outfield is far from stellar, but much like the Metrodome, Target Field features a short right field wall that helps cover up for Cuddy's lack of foot speed.

From a visual standpoint, Cuddyer is not the most intimidating guy in the world. He's a red-cheeked Southern boy with a big smile usually smeared across his face. But there's no doubt that opposing pitchers feared him when he stepped up to the plate during those finals weeks of the 2009 season, and he'll likely be instilling similar fear this summer when he steps up to the plate as part of the parade of sluggers populating the middle part of the Twins' lineup.

Not too bad for a dime-a-dozen slugging corner outfielder.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Cuddyer: .275/.340/.500, 25 HR, 100 RBI

Position Analysis: Center Field

Likely Starter: Denard Span
2009 Stats: .311/.392/.415, 8 HR, 68 RBI

Span has quickly become one of the team's most indispensable players.

Potential Backups: Jacque Jones, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert

Following the 2007 season, the Twins were left needing both a center fielder and a player who could competently fill the leadoff spot, as the departures of veterans Torii Hunter and Luis Castillo had left vacancies in these key areas. When newly appointed general manager Bill Smith acquired Carlos Gomez in the Johan Santana trade during the ensuing offseason, he hoped he'd found a player who could ultimately thrive in both those roles. Two years later, Gomez is gone and a different -- and rather unexpected -- player is flourishing as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder.

Back at the time when the Twins were scouring for Hunter's replacement, few would have guessed that Denard Span would ultimately be the answer. The former first-round pick was coming off his second straight minor-league season with a sub-.700 OPS, and seemingly lacked the on-base skills to project as a table-setter at the top of the lineup, which was how the Twins had envisioned him when they drafted him.

Yet, not visible in Span's overall Triple-A numbers from 2007 is that he came on strong late in the year and began to show increased patience. Span carried that success forward into spring training the next year, putting together a strong showing but still losing out on a roster spot to Gomez. Span returned to Triple-A and scorched the ball for a couple months, batting .340 in 40 games, before joining the Twins and putting together a season that merited serious Rookie of the Year consideration. Given that Span's .387 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage in his big-league debut seemingly came out of nowhere (he'd posted a .323 OBP and .355 SLG in Triple-A the previous year), many were skeptical of his ability to sustain that level of production. Span essentially erased any doubt last year by putting forth another tremendous effort and cementing himself as the club's long-term leadoff hitter.

As a result, Span was rewarded with a five-year contract this spring. While the deal only covers years that Span was under team control anyway (with an option to buy out his first year of free agency), it is a good faith showing by the organization. Combined with the Gomez trade, the contract seems to emphatically state that Span is the Twins' center fielder and leadoff man for the foreseeable future. And that gives the team's fans plenty of be happy about.

Span has essentially been a prototypical leadoff hitter over the past two years. He takes quality at-bats, gets on base with great regularity and has excellent speed. He can bunt. He's not vulnerable to left-handed pitchers (in fact, his numbers against southpaws have been significantly stronger). His ability to fill this role exceptionally is not in doubt. What is in some doubt is how he will fare as a full-time center fielder.

Span spent much of the past two seasons playing left field, where his defense was exquisite, but his work in center has not been quite as stellar. From an observational standpoint, Span noticeably missed balls last year that Gomez would have reached, and from a statistical standpoint Span rates drastically worse in center (-13.8 UZR) than he does in (16.7) left. Now, his number of innings in center field don't provide a large enough sample to draw real statistical conclusions, and indeed I don't believe that his ugly UZR in 700 career innings there really does him justice. Span has enough range to track down most of the balls he should and is equipped with an adequate arm, so I don't see him being a liability at the position. In fact, given his athleticism, he could easily become an asset there as he gains more regular big-league experience and grows accustomed to his new home park.

From the past several paragraphs, you can probably tell that I'm more than comfortable with Span as the team's starting center fielder. What I'm not comfortable with is the backup plan should Span go down with injury. That's because, right now, it doesn't appear that there really is one. The top candidate in camp right now to back up center field is Jacque Jones, but given that he was out of the majors last year it's a bit of a stretch to imagine that he'll be on the Opening Day roster. Nick Punto can play the position in a pinch and the Twins have given Alexi Casilla some reps in center field this spring, but neither is a particularly attractive option. If Span suffers a serious injury and needs to head to the disabled list, the Twins can call up someone to fill in (and Ben Revere is starting to look like a more and more legitimate candidate to do so this spring), but should Span get dizzy again and need a few days off, there doesn't appear to be anyone who can adequately handle the position on a short-term basis. This will certainly be something to follow throughout the season.

With a dearth of alternative options, Span's absence would leave an immense void in center field and in the leadoff spot, so his health and productivity will be of vast importance to the Twins' chances this year. I've doubted him in the past, but after watching him consistently thrive as a big-leaguer over the past two years, I'm done with that.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Span: .290/.375/.410, 5 HR, 50 RBI

Position Analysis: Left Field

Likely Starter: Delmon Young

2009 Stats: .284/.308/.425, 12 HR, 60 RBI

Will this be Young's year? (Photo courtesy of Keith Allison)

Potential Backups: Jason Kubel, Jacque Jones

Yesterday, in preparation for writing this article, I sent out a message from my Twitter account asking Twins fans to summarize their feelings about Delmon Young in one word. The responses, predictably, were mostly negative.

"Frustrating."

"Baffling."

"Underwhelmed."

"Exasperated."

"Trepidation."

"Malaise."

During his time here in Minnesota, Young has never really been embraced by the typically warm fan base because, for various reasons, I think it's been tough for fans to get behind him. Off the field, he doesn't have a particularly good reputation (although, to his credit, he hasn't had any publicized incidents since coming over from Tampa). On the field, he has been a major disappointment, having posted similarly underwhelming numbers in each of his three major-league seasons. His style of play can be frustrating to watch; he doesn't get to many balls in the outfield, swings at just about everything at the plate and hits into a lot of double plays. And while Young has failed to establish himself as a Twin, the two key players that Bill Smith traded for him -- Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett -- have blossomed into stars while wearing Rays uniforms.

Through his first couple years here in Minnesota, Young also had the misfortune of being juxtaposed against Carlos Gomez, another young player who was competing for playing time in the outfield. While the flaws in Gomez's game were perhaps no less frustrating than those in Young's, Gomez had a much more fan-friendly allure. His energy, enthusiasm and glowing personality portrayed him as a vastly different character than the more quiet and reserved Young.

After hedging back and forth between the two promising outfielders for much of the last two years, the Twins finally made a full commitment to Young this offseason by trading Gomez to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy. Young enters this season with regular playing time in left all but guaranteed. He's 24, with three full years of big-league experience under his belt and with nobody breathing down his neck. Everything seems aligned for him to finally emerge and fulfill -- at least to some degree -- the immense promise he showed as an elite teenage prospect. But will it happen?

Young's defenders often point to his youth. After all, they note, the typical 24-year-old player is still getting his feet wet at Triple-A, not preparing for his fourth season as a full-time major-leaguer. But what's troubling is that Young has now amassed over 1800 big-league plate appearances and has not evolved one bit as a hitter. His offensive production has been nearly identical in his three full seasons, and that production -- .288/.321/.411 with an average of 12 home runs and 74 RBI -- is simply not satisfactory for someone playing a non-valuable defensive position (and poorly). The average American League left fielder batted .267/.338/.442 last year, so Young's offensive performance wasn't even average, and defensively he rated as one of the league's worst at his position. He struck out far more often than any of his past big-league seasons, and he drew only 12 walks in 416 plate appearances. This isn't exactly the type of progression you'd like to see from a hitter who should be figuring things out in his third full year against major-league competition.

Before we all go writing Young off, though, there are a few promising signs to be gleaned from his 2009 campaign upon closer inspection. For one thing, his overall numbers were significantly dragged down by a terrible slump that immediately followed the passing of his mother, which very obviously affected his focus on the field. In the weeks after returning from a (perhaps overly) brief absence from the team, Young was striking out in every other at-bat and his batting average sunk by about 60 points. Take out this understandably poor stretch of performance and his overall numbers look a whole lot better.

In addition, Young finished the season very strong, which always helps breed hope heading into the next season. During the 17-4 stretch that propelled the Twins past the Tigers and into the playoffs, Young hit .353 with four of his 12 home runs and 17 RBI. During those final weeks of the season, Young was consistently hammering the baseball, and his three-run double off the right-field baggy against the eventual Cy Young winner Zack Greinke in a must-win October contest still stands out to me as one of the most memorable moments in the Twins' amazing run.

Yet, the hot streak did not coincide with any discernible change in approach for Young. During that 21-game stretch, Young continued to hack away at the plate, drawing just two non-intentional walks in 92 plate appearances. And there are plenty of people -- myself included -- who believe that unless Young takes meaningful strides with his pitch recognition he'll never be able to take his game to the next level for an extended period of time. He's a great contact hitter with the body of an imposing slugger, but Young just isn't good enough to become an outstanding hitter while he's consistently swinging at bad pitches. Simply put, he's not Vladimir Guerrero.

So far this spring, Young has seemingly shown little interest in becoming a more patient at the dish, as he's drawn only one walk in seven games (and batted .176). But spring training stats are relatively meaningless and Young has at least indicated that he plans to become more selective now that he doesn't face the prospect of being benched after a bad day at the plate with Gomez gone. Of course, his comfortable leash in left field won't last forever; if he's not getting it done, Young will have to start worrying about Jim Thome -- who can nudge Jason Kubel into left field -- cutting into his playing time.

As it stands, Kubel will likely spend some time in left field with Thome serving as designated hitter against tough right-handed pitchers. That should benefit Young, who has been much more effective against lefties than righties over the course of his career.

It's now or never for Young. While he's only 24, this will be his fourth full season and now that he's in his arbitration years he's becoming quite expensive. If he can't take a legitimate step forward this year, I suspect that the Twins will seek to move in a different direction. There are certainly still those out there who believe in Young, as illustrated by those few tweets I received yesterday with positive tones like "optimistic" and "promising." And while those words ceased to describe my take on Young as I've watched him fail to make adjustments over the past three years, that doesn't mean I'm not hopeful.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Young: .300/.335/.430, 15 HR, 60 RBI

Position Analysis: Shortstop

Likely Starter: J.J. Hardy
2009 Stats: .229/.302/.357, 11 HR, 47 RBI

Will a change of scenery help Hardy rebound from a brutal '09 season?

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla

The Twins entered the 2009 season with Nick Punto as their starting shortstop and finished it with Orlando Cabrera there. If you're wondering how urgently they wanted to upgrade beyond those two, it should be clear from the fact that Bill Smith pulled the trigger on a trade for J.J. Hardy just days after the conclusion of the World Series, while other organizations were still drawing up their offseason plans.

Many fans viewed the addition of Cabrera at the trade deadline last year as an integral part of the team's late surge to the postseason. That makes sense, given the timeline; Cabrera arrived at the end of July with the Twins' record at .500 and by the end of the year he was one of the first players charging onto the field as Carlos Gomez crossed home plate to send the Twins to the playoffs after the team had gone in 34-25 over the final two months of the season with Cabrera as their starting shortstop.

While Cabrera was a relatively productive player in the second half last year, his defense left plenty to be desired and his lack of on-base skills made him a rather poor fit for the No. 2 spot in the lineup. He also turned 35 years old just after the season ended, so retaining him would have, at best, given the Twins yet another passable one-year stopgap at short. Given the team's existing instability at second and third, Smith wanted to go a new direction at short and find a player who could settle in as a long-term solution. He hopes he's found that player in Hardy.

By now, we all know Hardy's story. He came into the league as a 22-year-old, and in his third season turned into a stud, ripping 26 homers and driving in 80 runs while posting a .277/.323/.463 as a 24-year-old shortstop with an excellent glove. That's a tremendous performance -- one that earned Hardy his first All-Star appearance -- and he followed it up with a similarly dazzling effort in 2008, when he batted .283/.343/.478 with 24 home runs and 74 RBI while remaining stellar in the field.

At that point, Hardy was a 26-year-old power-hitting shortstop with excellent defense and several years of team control; he was a player any team in the league would have loved to get their hands on, but one that would require a pretty overwhelming package to pry away from the Brewers.

What a difference a year makes. Last year, Hardy stumbled out of the gates, hitting just .156 over the first month of the season, and after rebounding a bit in May, he slumped through the next couple months and found himself demoted to Triple-A in mid-August (a move that could have had as much to do with delaying his free agent eligibility as getting him out of the Brewers lineup). Hardy returned to Milwaukee in September, but continued to struggle down the stretch and finished the season with hugely disappointing offensive numbers. His drop in batting average coincided with a drop in power (just 11 home runs in 465 plate appearances) and a rise in strikeout rate -- both troubling signs.

Without any major injury to explain away the struggles, there is serious cause for concern that Hardy is no longer the outstanding player he seemed to be emerging as in the 2007-08 seasons. With a strikeout rate that has risen in each of the past three years, it could be that scouts are catching up with him and pitchers have started to figure him out. That very fear has drastically reduced the market for Hardy, as evidenced by the fact that the Twins were able to acquire him in return for their own underperforming head case, Carlos Gomez.

At the very least, Hardy does have a few things going in his favor as he moves across the border to Minnesota. For one thing, he's moving to a new league, where opposing pitchers and managers are generally unfamiliar with him. Getting a fresh start, with new teammates as well as new opponents, may help Hardy get back to doing the things that made brought him success in the past. In addition, Hardy will be under far less pressure in a Twins lineup that already has its fill of star players. He entered last season as the No. 5 hitter for Milwaukee; this year, he'll likely open the season as the Twins' No. 7 or No. 8 hitter.

The Twins seem confident that the change of scenery can get Hardy back on track, and if they're right, his powerful right-handed bat would be a boon for an offense currently dominated by lefties. This club isn't accustomed to having heavy hitters at the shortstop position nor in the bottom part of the lineup, and if Hardy can get back to the level he was at in 2008 -- or close to it -- he'll provide a breath of fresh air while adding balance to the batting order.

Even if Hardy isn't able to return to the level of production he enjoyed during the '07 and '08 campaigns -- and as you'll see below I'm fairly conservative in my projections for him this year -- he'll still be a valuable piece for the Twins as long as he continues to cover significant ground at shortstop. Even with the offensive drop-off last season, Hardy posted an 8.8 UZR/150 in the field, ranking him sixth among MLB shortstops and placing him miles in front of Cabrera, whose -13.7 UZR/150 ranked as the worst in baseball outside of the immortal Yuniesky Betancourt. That's a lot of extra balls gobbled up in the middle infield, which can make Hardy an asset even if his stick is mediocre.

Backup up Hardy at short will be Punto, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla. Should Hardy go down with an injury or continue to decline on offense, I suspect we'd see Punto slide over to short with Brendan Harris taking over at third, although there's a slight chance that prospect Trevor Plouffe could get a look.

As we've seen over the past three installments in this Position Analysis series, the Twins have had a difficult time finding long-term solutions at all of their infield spots outside of first base. With a platoon of backups set to handle third base and a one-year veteran stopgap manning second this year, the 27-year-old Hardy represents the team's best chance at finding a true regular who can hold down his position for multiple years.

A return to his 2008 form would make Hardy one of the American League's finest shortstops and an absolute godsend at the bottom of the lineup. A continuance of his 2009 struggles would render him another in a long line of failed experiments at the shortstop position. I'd settle for something in the middle of those two extremes, which I suspect is what we'll get.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Hardy: .260/.315/.405, 16 HR, 50 RBI

Position Analysis: Third Base

Likely Starter: Nick Punto
2009 Stats: .228/.337/.287, 1 HR, 38 RBI

Punto will rely on his keen eye at the plate to buoy his offensive game.

Potential Backups: Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert

Much like second base, the hot corner has becoming a revolving door for the Twins over the past handful of seasons. Since Corey Koskie's departure, the Twins have auditioned Michael Cuddyer, Tony Batista, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Joe Crede, Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher and others at third base and have never come up with very strong results.

Not surprisingly, third base is shaping up to be the weakest position on the field for the Twins this year. Rather than signing or trading for an established regular to replace the departed Crede, it appears that the Twins will install some combination of Punto and Harris at third this season. Neither of the two figures to be much of an offensive contributor, but they both have their strengths and since they will likely be occupying the ninth spot in the lineup most days, expectations will be fairly low.

Punto is the favorite to man third on Opening Day and draw the majority of starts at the position. How come? Well, for one thing, despite his poor overall performance last year he finished the season strong and was a key contributor in the team's late surge. That helps, particularly since Ron Gardenhire has a tendency to find any reason he can to defend Punto's regular presence in the lineup. In addition, Punto will make $4 million this year, and the Twins likely aren't too keen on paying that kind of money to a bench player.

Punto has molded himself into a walk-taking machine, which helps offset his weak bat. Despite posting terrible numbers in the batting average and slugging percentage columns, Punto managed a respectable .337 on-base percentage last year thanks to a team-leading walk rate. If Punto can stick with this approach (and he has already drawn three free passes in 12 plate appearances this spring) he should avoid being a liability in the nine-hole even if his bat doesn't experience its usual even-year resurgence.

Of course, Punto's greatest value comes in the field, where his outstanding mitt makes him an asset. He's a strong defender all around the infield, but third base rates statistically as Punto's best position, as he has amassed a UZR/150 of 19.9 in nearly 1800 innings there. For reference, Crede's career number in that category is 10.2.

With the Twins' bench shaping up to be relatively thin this season, Gardenhire may look to utilize Punto's versatility by moving him around the field to fill in elsewhere frequently. On these days, and days where Punto is simply on the bench, Harris figures to be called upon at third. While he's not a real strong defender, third base is probably Harris' best defensive position and he's certainly got a more potent bat than Punto. While somewhat useless against right-handed pitching, Harris holds a .302/.348/.403 career line against southpaws so it's obvious when he should be in the lineup.

In the even that both Punto and Harris struggle (which is hardly unthinkable), the Twins' fallback plan will be Danny Valencia, who is slated to open the season in Rochester. The 25-year-old needs to demonstrate improved plate discipline and steady glovework at Triple-A before the organization will be ready to give him a stab at the big-league job, but it would hardly be surprising to see him manning the hot corner at Target Field in the later months of the season.

Early on, though, it appears that the best recipe for the Twins will be a combination of Punto and Harris at third. With more groundball-heavy pitchers on the mound -- such as Nick Blackburn and (hopefully) Francisco Liriano -- the Gardenhire should opt for Punto, who can team with J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson to form the rangiest infield we've seen around here in some time. With lefty pitchers toeing the rubber for the opposition, Harris stands out as the best option.

The two aren't likely to make anyone forget about Koskie, but they don't need to. If Punto and Harris can take care of all the balls hit at them while getting on base enough to turn the lineup over, they'll be adequate.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Punto: .240/.335/.305, 2 HR, 40 RBI

Position Analysis: Second Base

Likely Starter: Orlando Hudson
2009 Stats: .283/.357/.417, 9 HR, 62 RBI

Hudson can fill some significant needs for the Twins in 2010.

Potential Backups: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert

After the Chuck Knoblauch trade in 1998, Todd Walker took over second base duties for the Twins and was a quality contributor there for a couple years. Yet, Walker never seemed to mesh with manager Tom Kelly, so the Twins dealt him to the Rockies during the 2000 season and called on a promising young Venezuelan named Luis Rivas to anchor the position. The Twins stuck with Rivas for several years, but he never really developed into the player they'd hoped he would become, and by the middle of the 2005 season the team was in such dire need of a replacement that Terry Ryan made a desperation trade for a washed up, 36-year-old Bret Boone.

The Boone experiment failed, and so Ryan went out during the ensuing offseason and traded for an accomplished veteran in Luis Castillo. For a year and a half, Castillo provided solid production as the team's second baseman, but midway through the 2007 campaign the team once again decided to put its faith in a promising young Latin player, trading away Castillo and handing the second base gig to Alexi Casilla. Like Rivas before him, Casilla has failed to fulfill his promise as a major-leaguer and now the Twins have once again fallen on a temporary veteran stopgap as they continue to search for a viable long-term solution at the position. Orlando Hudson, signed to a one-year deal last month, will become the fifth different Opening Day second baseman for the Twins in the past six years.

Much like Castillo, Hudson comes to the Twins as a respected and reputed vet. In his eight major-league seasons, he has won four Gold Gloves and made two All-Star appearances while accumulating an impressive .282/.348/.431 career hitting line. Reporters and teammates often commend Hudson's affable nature and strong work ethic. He also hit .283/.357/.417 last year and comes to Minnesota to play a position that put forth a miserable .209/.302/.267 hitting line, and he seems perfectly suited to fill a second spot in the lineup that had become an enormous liability. In many ways, Hudson seems like an ideal fit for the Twins.

Yet, in spite of his solid overall performance, there was something distinctly odd about the way Hudson's 2009 season ended. As the Dodgers made their final charge down the stretch, an apparently healthy Hudson found himself frequently relegated to the bench in favor of Ronnie Belliard. Then, in the Dodgers' eight postseason games against the Cardinals and Phillies, Hudson didn't draw a single start.

So what happened in Los Angeles last year? To get a better idea, I asked Chad Moriyama of the Dodgers blog Memories of Kevin Malone. Here's his take on Hudson's 2009 campaign:

Before the 2009 season started, I projected Hudson's numbers to regress from his Chase Field days, but he made me look foolish early on by absolutely destroying the ball to the tune of a .332/.407/.469/.877 clip. Unfortunately, that didn't last long, and he hit .253/.325/.385/.710 the rest of the way, leading the Dodgers to explore other options at second base late in the season. On the upside though, he handled his benching like a true professional, and Hudson's end line of .283/.357/.417/.774 was right in line with his career norms after taking into account park factors, so there doesn't appear to be any age regression occurring in his offensive game.

The same can't be said on the defensive side of things though, as the once elite defender is now merely average. Whether it's age or the wrist injury, something is definitely not the same about Hudson, and his Gold Glove was won on pure reputation. He is still a joy to watch when tracking down pop-ups, and he's great moving to his left, but Hudson has a lot of difficulty moving away from first base nowadays. That opinion is backed by statistics, as the Plus/Minus system puts Hudson at +9 on fly balls, +13 going to his left, and -15 going to his right or handling balls hit right at him. I don't think he's a below average defender like UZR (-3.7 UZR/150) says he is, but it's certain that he's no longer the gloveman that he once was.

Then again, on a one year contract for a mere 5 million dollars guaranteed, it's hard to argue against the deal the Twins made. I really wouldn't worry about his late season benching, as that was just Joe Torre playing the hot hand. The bottom line is that Hudson was a godsend at times for the Dodgers last year for 7-8 million, and there aren't any signs that things are going to change for him in 2010.

As Chad notes, there was a "hot hand" dynamic at work with Hudson's benching, as Belliard was scalding hot during the month of September and continued to hit well in the postseason. Hudson has expressed nothing but bafflement over the situation and insists he had no health issues, and if that's the case Twins fans can breathe easy. He's been very consistent over the past four years, with a hitting line that has never veered far from .290/.360/.440, and if he can put forth a similar effort this year he'll be an excellent cog between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

While -- as Chad hinted -- Hudson's defensive reputation might be a bit inflated, he is a solid fielder who should be able to team with J.J. Hardy and dramatically upgrade the Twins' middle-infield defense this year. In the event that Hudson gets hurt or needs a day off, Nick Punto and Casilla (assuming he makes the team) will be the top fill-in options. Brendan Harris can play second but Ron Gardenhire is clearly squeamish about his defense there. Matt Tolbert, if he's on the roster, can also play the position.

The Twins have struggled to find a legitimate answer to their second base woes over the past decade. Hudson, 32 years old and signed to a one-year pact, likely won't be a lasting solution. But for this year, O-Dog looks like a great fit and should effectively add some bite to the top of the Twins' lineup.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Hudson: .285/.345/.415, 8 HR, 60 RBI

Position Analysis: First Base

Likely Starter: Justin Morneau
2009 Stats: .274/.363/.516, 30 HR, 100 RBI

Is Morneau's back fully healed?

Potential Backups: Michael Cuddyer, Brendan Harris, Jim Thome

Justin Morneau entered the All-Star break last season with a stellar .311/.390/.575 hitting line to go along with 21 homers and 77 RBI, and it appeared that he'd be competing for another MVP award over the final months for the season. Unfortunately, things went south from that point; Morneau hit just .201 the rest of the way and finished the season with relatively ordinary numbers overall.

Late-season slumps are certainly nothing new for Morneau, whose career second-half OPS is 115 points lower than the first-half figure, but this time around there was a clear explanation for his drop-off in August and September: a fractured vertebrae that landed him on the shelf for the final weeks of the season and the playoffs.

The injury clearly took an immense toll on Morneau's performance -- in his final 20 games before being shut down he totaled only seven hits in 70 at-bats -- so if it his back is not fully healed this year, Twins fans have real cause for worry. Given that doctors prescribed rest rather than surgery to address Morneau's injury, I suspect that there will be persistent concerns early in the season that these issues may re-emerge.

The Twins need Morneau's back to be healthy and strong, because he'll be carrying a significant portion of the load as cleanup hitter in the Twins' powerful lineup. He's been one of the league's finest run-producers over the past several years, as a penchant for big knocks with runners aboard and a spot behind Joe Mauer in the lineup have helped produce four straight 100-RBI campaigns. This year he will bat behind three players with a knack for getting on base, and he'll have power threats looming behind him in Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. If his back holds up, Morneau is positioned to thrive in this lineup and help churn runs across the board like never before.

In the event that Morneau's back (or surgically repaired wrist) should act up, Michael Cuddyer would likely would likely step in at first base. Cuddyer donned his first baseman's mitt last year after Morneau went down and did an admirable job there, hitting .325/.398/.675 with eight homers and 24 RBI in the Twins' final 21 regular-season games while performing well in the field and playing a central role in the team's late surge to a division title. Beyond Cuddyer, there aren't many options on the roster to back up Morneau. Brendan Harris has a bit of experience there and could play it in a pinch. Jim Thome was once a full-time first baseman but he's now 39 and he hasn't played a single inning in the field over the past two years.

The Twins charged down the stretch last year with Morneau on the sidelines but he's clearly a focal point of this offense and if he's healthy he can help turn the middle of the lineup into a murderer's row. The Twins have surrounded their cleanup man with more offensive punch than ever before, so let's hope his back can hold up.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Morneau: .290/.375/.580, 35 HR, 120 RBI

A Lost Link

There haven't been many constants for the Twins over the past six years. A look back at the 2004 roster seems like a study in ancient history. Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas, Cristian Guzman and Corey Koskie manned the infield. Michael Cuddyer had not yet established himself as a regular. Joe Mauer entered the season without a major-league at-bat to his credit. Johan Santana was just finally becoming a full-time member of the rotation.

Yes, it was a different era in Twins baseball. But it was also the year Joe Nathan, who'd been acquired from the Giants during the previous offseason, took over as the team's closer. And in the six years since, he has been one of the most consistent forces in baseball, annually posting elite numbers from the closer position while remaining remarkably healthy and durable.

Between 2004 and 2009, Nathan never appeared in fewer than 64 games and never pitched fewer than 67 2/3 innings. He never posted an ERA higher than 2.70, and never posted a WHIP higher than 1.01. He's had his blips from time to time, but for the most part Nathan has been a model of consistency.

In those six years, he racked up a whopping 246 saves, the highest total of any closer in baseball during that span. That figure places him just eight short of the Twins' all-time saves leader, Rick Aguilera, so Nathan seemed certain to claim his place in the franchise history this year.

Now, that won't happen this season. And it might not happen at all.

After experiencing pain in his elbow during his first spring training appearance last week, Nathan flew back to Minnesota, where imaging scans revealed a "significant tear" in his ulnar collateral ligament. While he and the team have suggested that the closer will wait a couple weeks for the swelling to go down before making a decision on his future, there is almost no chance that Nathan will avoid Tommy John surgery. At the age of 35, bouncing back from this serious procedure will be difficult for Nathan. Not only is his 2010 season likely done, his future as a major-leaguer could be in grave doubt. That's pretty heartbreaking, not only because the Twins owe him $24.5 million in guaranteed money on his current contact, but also because he is truly one of the good guys in baseball and one of the last remaining links to that previous era in Twins history.

For now, though, the Twins can't afford to look at the big picture and sulk. They'll need to determine who will pick up the slack this year in the absence of Nathan, who has converted 91 percent of his save opportunities since taking over closing duties in '04. While a closer-by-committee approach based on match-ups and who's available may be the most desirable solution, La Velle suggests that the Twins are unlikely to follow this path and my guess is that he's right. Ron Gardenhire will likely try to settle on an individual replacement for Nathan who can regularly be called upon in most instances to close out the ninth inning when the Twins lead by three or fewer runs.

Nathan has been one of baseball's elite closers over the past several years and no one the Twins can call upon internally will come close to filling the void he leaves in the bullpen. Yet, in a sense, the timing of this injury is as good as it possibly could be. The Twins enter this season with more relief depth than they've had in past years, and the injury comes early enough in spring training that they'll have plenty of time to weigh their options and formulate a plan before the season starts. There are a number of guys who could be called upon to overtake the closer reigns for the 2010 season, so I'll break down the candidates in order of likelihood of winning the job:

1. Jon Rauch
Rauch possesses many of the traits Gardenhire is likely to look for in a replacement closer. For one thing, he's a veteran, with 356 major-league appearances spanning seven seasons. He also has closing experience, having filled that role with the Nationals for a period of time during the 2008 campaign. After joining the Twins last year, he posted closer-type numbers, posting a 1.72 ERA while striking out 14 batters over 15 innings. Yet, that small sample hides the fact that Rauch's strikeout rate dropped overall last year (he fanned just 35 batters in 54 1/3 innings in Arizona prior to being traded) and that he has a tendency to get hit hard, having allowed a .425 slugging percentage while coughing up 17 homers over the past two years. Tall, tattooed and mean-looking, Rauch has the imposing look of a closer and seems the favorite to get save opportunities early in the year. There's no guarantee he'll stick in that role, though.

2. Jesse Crain
Those who recall watching Crain pitch over the first half of last season -- when his performance got so bad that he was demoted to the minors -- might be a bit baffled to see him rank second on this list. But after being recalled in July, Crain posted a 2.91 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a measly .217 batting average and .292 slugging percentage. While he's not a strikeout artist, he has proven capable of missing bats (7.3 K/9 over the past two seasons) and he had plenty of closing experience in the minors, where he was groomed to become a late-inning dominator. If Crain can pick up where he left off last season, he'll be the best candidate to fill in for Nathan. Of course, given his inconsistency since returning from shoulder surgery, that's no given.

3. Pat Neshek
When he first broke into the league, Neshek was about as dominant as Nathan. In 2006, the quirky right-hander posted a 2.19 ERA and 53-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 37 innings. He carried that success forward into his first full season with the Twins, dominating as eighth-inning setup man during the first half of the '07 campaign, but he wore down late in the year and the next spring he felt his UCL go pop, requiring Tommy John surgery (sound familiar?). Neshek hasn't pitched in a big-league game since early 2008 and we all know how difficult the initial return from TJ surgery can be (paging Francisco Liriano), so he seems like a longshot to even make the Opening Day roster this spring. Still, he's looked sharp in exhibition play and it would be no surprise to see him get a shot at closing out games somewhere along the line.

4. Matt Guerrier
Guerrier was Mr. Eighth Inning last year and he handled the job well, posting a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while effectively bridging the gap to Nathan on a regular basis. This would suggest that he ought to be first in line to step in for the fallen closer. Yet, Guerrier seems perfectly suited for the role he has been in for the past couple years. His durable arm has racked up more appearances over the past three years than any other big-league pitcher, and as a guy who used to start and work in long relief he's capable of tossing multiple innings. Certainly, Guerrier has the resume to suggest he could be effective in a ninth-inning role, but I think the Twins would be doing themselves a disservice by removing him from his current spot. I suspect Gardenhire would feel the same way.

5. Francisco Liriano
Given that he has some of the filthiest stuff of anyone on the staff, Liriano has frequently been brought up as a candidate to move to the bullpen, where he ostensibly could unleash the full power of his arsenal in shorter stints. Indeed, Liriano's mid-90s fastball and dirty slider could make him a natural fit in the closer spot, but if he has truly regained his confidence and command he's too much of an asset in the rotation to be removed. If Liriano experiences problems similar to the ones that plagued him last year and is wearing down by the fifth inning in his starts, we could see the Twins give him a shot to close out games. But I'm hoping that won't happen.

6. Jose Mijares
In 72 big-league innings, Mijares has registered a 2.12 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .206 batting average -- very nice numbers. However, Gardenhire requires a situational left-handed specialist and Mijares fits that role perfectly with his tremendous numbers against lefties (not to mention his mediocre numbers against righties). He could get some chances to pitch the ninth when opposing lineups are sending a couple left-handed hitters to the plate, but outside of that I'd be extremely surprised to see him notch many saves this season.

After Nathan's struggles in the playoffs last year, I was frustrated by fans who focused on his late-season issues while overlooking how amazingly well he'd pitched over the first five months of the season, not to mention his previous five years in a Twins uniform. Now, with Nathan gone, those same fans will come to realize what they'd been taking for granted in their rants. For the vast majority of his career in Minnesota, Nathan has been close to automatic in the ninth inning. And while I'm confident the pitchers above can do an adequate job of replacing his contributions, none of them will be able to fully fill his shoes. Panicky fans who are suggesting that Nathan's loss suddenly makes the Twins a far worse team are grossly exaggerating the effect of a dominant closer on the win/loss column, but there Nathan's absence will be noticeable.

Sometimes you don't miss a good thing until it's gone.

Position Analysis: Catcher

Every March, I go through the Twins' roster position-by-position to project a likely starter and sort through potential backups. Today, we kick off this year's iteration of the Position Analysis series by taking a look at the catcher spot, where a hometown hero will be returning to defend his MVP crown...

Likely Starter: Joe Mauer
2009 Stats: .365/.444/.587, 28 HR, 96 RBI

Will Mauer's power sustain in 2010?

Potential Backups: Jose Morales, Drew Butera, Wilson Ramos

Despite missing all of spring training and the entire month of April with a back injury, Joe Mauer managed to surpass 600 plate appearances last season while obliterating his previous career highs in just about every statistical category. The amazing efforts helped lift the Twins to a postseason berth and earned Mauer a batting title, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and an MVP award while heavily increasing his celebrity on the national scene.

Imagine what he can do now that he's entering the 2010 season healthy.

It's March 9, and Mauer is still without a contract extension as he enters the final season of the four-year deal he signed with the Twins back in 2007. That uncertainty surrounding his contract will surely be the center of much discussion here as we approach the start of the regular season, but his focal role in a lineup that figures to surround him with more talent than ever before will be the spotlight of today's article.

Last year, Mauer managed to drive in 96 runs despite generally hitting directly behind terrible hitters, as the No. 2 spot in the Twins lineup put forth a .232 average and .272 on-base percentage when Mauer was not inhabiting it. This year, the Twins will fill that void with a legitimate veteran hitter in Orlando Hudson, who along with leadoff man Denard Span figures to provide plenty of opportunities for Mauer to inflict damage. And given that Mauer has historically been a tremendous hitter with runners in scoring position, with a .347 career average in such situations, it's a good bet that he'll take advantage.

Adding to the headaches for opposing pitchers are the batters following Mauer in the lineup. Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel each hit at least 28 bombs while driving in at least 92 runs last season, so if those three can remain imposing power threats (with new additions Jim Thome and J.J. Hardy possibly joining the pack), there will be no pitching around Mauer. The Twins' lineup is starting to look like a "pick your poison" conundrum for opposing managers, and as the best hitter of the bunch, Mauer is the guy who makes all the gears turn.

Mauer has always been an excellent contact hitter with one of the league's most discerning eyes, but what transformed him into an MVP last year was the emergence of legitimate power in his game. The big question as we go forward is whether that power is going to stick. He hit a huge percentage of his long balls during that insane month of May when he first joined the club, going deep 11 times in 122 plate appearances. The rest of the way, Mauer homered 17 times in 484 plate appearances -- a rate of one home run per 28.5 PAs which would translate to about 21 bombs in 600 plate appearances. As pitchers continue to adjust to Mauer, who hit nearly all his home runs to the opposite field last year, I suspect we'll see some reduction in the home run proclivity, particularly considering that many of his round-trippers barely cleared the wall last season. One might argue that a drop-off in homer frequency might be offset by not missing a month of the season, but it probably isn't realistic to expect a whole lot more than 600 plate appearances from Mauer this year given that his previous career high in that category was 633 (again, this only helps reinforce how amazingly durable Mauer was after coming off the disabled list last year). I'd guess that Mauer's home run total this year will drop closer to 20 while his doubles total moves closer to 40.

Of course, those figures are nothing to scoff at and if Mauer can stay among the league leaders in batting average and on-base percentage, which almost seem like givens at this point, he'll remain one of the two or three most valuable players in all of baseball. That is, in large part, because of the fact that he plays catcher and plays it well. His Gold Glove nod last year may not have been entirely deserved, but there's no doubt that Mauer is a very solid backstop, with quick reactions to smother balls in the dirt and a cannon arm that limits what opposing clubs can do on the base paths.

Should Mauer experience any health problems this year, the Twins will be without the player who has backed him up for nearly his entire career. Mike Redmond ended a five-year run with the club by signing with the Indians this offseason, which may have been for the best given that his skills have declined dramatically across the board in recent years. This season, the Twins will likely trot out Drew Butera as Mauer's caddy to start the year, with Jose Morales likely to take over that role once his wrist is fully healthy. Butera seems a capable defensive fill-in but he'll provide almost nothing with the bat, which would become a burden if Mauer went down. Morales has posted a .328 batting average in 137 major-league plate appearances, and while that figure is unsustainably buoyed by a .396 average on balls in play, his .319 average at Triple-A over the past three seasons suggests that he'll at least be a competent big-league hitter, albeit without much power or patience.

Wilson Ramos, who I recently ranked as the organization's second-best prospect, could also see playing time with the Twins this year in the event that Mauer should go down for an extended period of time.

As has been the case for the past several seasons, catcher enters the season as the team's strongest position. I'm hopeful that Mauer's contract situation can get worked out soon so people can stop worrying about his long-term future with the club and start beaming about what he's likely to provide from the No. 3 spot in a potentially dominant lineup this year.

Predicted 2010 Hitting Line for Mauer: .330/.425/.550, 20 HR, 110 RBI

On Location in Fort Myers

On Friday, the Twins played for the first time this year at their spring training home, Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers. I was in attendance, making it the first of many outdoor baseball games I will attend this season. Ironically, the southern Florida weather was about what can be expected at Target Field in early April -- it was a sunny but breezy day with a temperature that sat in the high 50s and warranted long sleeves rather than t-shirts. While the chilly conditions had many native Floridians complaining, I know that I'd easily prefer watching 81 home games in those exact same conditions to being cooped up in the Dome.

The lineup that the Twins trotted out was pretty close to the one we can expect to see on Opening Day in April. The only exceptions were Jim Thome, who started at DH and batted sixth, and Danny Valencia, who started at third base and batted ninth. If the first inning of the game was any indication, we'll be in for a treat when watching this offense go to work this season; by the end of the first frame, the Twins had put four runs on the board. And the pitcher they were terrorizing was no slouch, it was Boston's Jon Lester, who has established himself over the past couple years as one of the league's finest left-handed pitchers. Now, this was Lester's first start of the spring and he clearly was not at his sharpest, but seeing the Twins pester him relentlessly with a lineup that gives opposing pitchers no breaks 1-through-6 was plenty encouraging.

Here are a few observations from the game, followed by some photos I snapped...

* Justin Morneau struggled for several weeks before being shut down in September last year due to a fractured vertebrae. That seems like a pretty serious ailment, and Morneau also underwent offseason wrist surgery, so there is certainly reason for folks to be a bit nervous about the first baseman's health this spring. In the first inning of Friday's game, he turned on a fastball with the bases loaded and drove it down the right field line for a two-run double. Good sign. He also made a nice diving play defensively in the game.

* Much has been made of Delmon Young's slimmer physique this spring, and after seeing him in person I can attest that there is little doubt he worked hard to shed pounds during the offseason. Still, if the game I attended was any indication, Young's weight loss has not drastically improved his mobility in the outfield. He still seems to plod around, and on Friday he allowed a seemingly catchable a line drive to get over his head for a double, and later forced J.J. Hardy to race into shallow left to catch a fly ball that a more fleet left fielder would have likely been able to haul in.

Nevertheless, it is foolish to put too much stock into a couple plays within a single game, so by no means am I passing judgment on "Delmon Young 2.0," as some folks at the ballpark were affectionately referring to him. The Twins would hugely benefit from increased range from Young in left now that Carlos Gomez is gone.

* Reliever Anthony Slama has been one of my favorite prospects over the past couple years, so it was fun to finally get to see him live for the first time. Slama, a strikeout machine throughout his minor-league career, finished the 2009 season in Triple-A and could very well spend time with the big-league club this season.

I was excited to see Slama's delivery, which has been described by some as unorthodox. And while he does throw from a three-quarters slot, I would say that tales of Slama's funky throwing style have been somewhat exaggerated. I took a quick 30-second video from my seat at the game, so if you've never seen him pitch before you can click below to get some idea of how he delivers. (Please excuse the crappy video quality.)

* Aside from Slama, a pair of other relief prospects who could make an impact for the Twins in the near future also pitched in the game: Rob Delaney and Alex Burnett. Neither allowed a run (in fact, nobody did in the 5-0 Twins victory). If Joe Nathan's elbow issues from Saturday turn into something significant, pitchers like these could become important contributors this season.

* And now, a few (poorly shot) photos from my day at the ballpark:

A trimmer Delmon Young stands in for an at-bat.

New shortstop J.J. Hardy trots back to the dugout after recording an out.

Danny Valencia chats with first base coach Jerry White after grounding out to end an inning.

Obligatory Toby Gardenhire shot.

Finally, many Twins fans will surely recognize this shirt being worn by the gentleman sitting in front of me.

Spring Has Sprung

The Twins kicked off their spring schedule last night with a 2-1 loss to the Red Sox at City of Palms Park in Fort Myers. It was a rather uneventful game, with the Twins managing only four hits -- all singles -- but there were a few noteworthy performances. Chief among them was Pat Neshek's first appearance since May of 2008. He tossed a 1-2-3 inning, inducing a pop-out, a ground-out and a swinging strikeout. I expect Neshek to open the season in Rochester after his lengthy layoff, but if he keeps shutting down hitters this spring that could change.

Today the Twins play their first home game of the spring, and I'll be in attendance. I'll probably post some quick reactions from the game on my Twitter account later today, but I'll have a full recap here on Monday. I apologize for the sparse posting around here lately, but things will kick into full gear next week starting with the launch of my annual Position Analysis series.

For now, a few links to take you into the weekend...

* Mariners scribe Keizo Konishi, the only voter who did not place Joe Mauer first on his AL MVP ballot last year, recently explained the reasoning behind his choice to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Konishi's rationale:

“I thought that the Western division and the Eastern division were almost decided by mid-August,” he said. “The only tight race was the Central division. Two teams went really deep, the Tigers and the Twins, so I thought the M.V.P. should be selected from those two teams.

"What I thought is, ‘Who has the most importance to those two teams?’ I imagined what would happen if you picked someone out of the lineup. For example, if I took Cabrera out of the Tigers’ lineup, I thought it would be a very different team. If I did the same thing for the Twins, if I picked Mauer out of their lineup, they would still have a better lineup compared to the Tigers.”

Plenty of smart people have given up on caring about MVP results by now. Stubbornly, I keep trying to care, because I think it's such an important part of the way the game's history will be written. But when people with this type of mindset are bestowed one of the 28 votes for this prestigious award, I am beyond disheartened.

The notion that an individual player should be penalized for being on a great team (such as the Angels and Yankees, who pulled away in their divisions in mid-August as Konishi notes) or for being surrounded by quality hitters is absurd, horribly illogical and seemingly beneath a seasoned baseball writer. But, apparently not.

* Parker wrote yesterday about Joe Mauer and Jim Thome's shared penchant for hitting home runs to the opposite field in 2009.

* Over at his blog, Curve For a Strike, Topper Anton continued his series of on-site reports on the Twins' spring training activities.

* Make sure to check out Seth's spring training Q & A with my No. 9 Twins prospect, Carlos Gutierrez.

* The Twins Geek gives his take on a gambling site's over/under for the 2010 win totals of teams across the American League.

* Finally, as was announced on Wednesday, I will be a part-time front-page contributor at Twinkie Town this season. My involvement won't be terribly extensive, but you'll be able to find some manner of disjointed ramblings from me there each Wednesday this summer.

I think commenter "Eric in Madison" put it best when he stated that Twinkie Town is now "One less website to go to and not find Nick Nelson. Sigh..." So true. My presence is becoming parasitic at this point. But people keep enlisting me to write, and given that writing is one of my favorite activities I'm not very good at saying no, despite the fact that these commitments are basically taking over my life at this point.

Worry not, I'm sure that people will start revoking my posting privileges soon. Particularly if I continue to make the very grave mistake of temporarily lapsing on the fact that Alexei Ramirez is Chicago's starting shortstop while writing a post at midnight on a Tuesday...

Role Reversal

Ozzie Guillen has never been too timid about stating his adoration for the Minnesota Twins and the way they play the game. At seemingly every opportunity, he has publicly complimented the organization, its players and its manager. Oftentimes, when the White Sox would play at the Metrodome and Guillen would rattle off one of his profanity-laced diatribes about his team's uninspired play in a post-game presser, one got the impression that the Chicago skipper secretly desired a gig in the opposing dugout.

It should come as no surprise that Guillen is partial to the "piranha" approach to run-scoring that he helped the Twins make famous a few years ago. During a 16-year playing career, Guillen posted a modest .264/.287/.338 hitting line while managing just 28 home runs in more than 7,000 plate appearances. Even when he was at his best, Guillen's value came from his speed and defense. That style certainly doesn't mesh with the way the White Sox have been constructed for much of the past decade, with an offense built around plodding sluggers like Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Joe Crede and Carlos Quentin. Chicago's offensive formula has been effective -- as illustrated by their World Series Championship in 2005 and subsequent AL Central title in 2008 -- but it has been drastically different from the one employed by the light-hitting Twins.

Today, we're seeing a major shift in philosphy for both teams.

The Sox have spent the past year parting ways with the likes of Thome and Dye while loading the roster with players fitting a different mold. Juan Pierre, who was signed during the offseason to play center field and bat leadoff, is a speedy runner who has consistently demonstrated an ability to hit for a high average but whose power is almost non-existent. Omar Vizquel, Chicago's new starting shortstop, is an all-glove guy who provides little with the bat, particularly at this late stage of his career. Mark Teahen, acquired in a trade with the Royals, hasn't slugged over .410 in any of the past three seasons.

Through moves like these, the White Sox are shedding their label as a straight power-hitting club while leaning more on speed and defense, not to mention an excellent and relatively youthful starting rotation. This is the formula that once epitomized Twins baseball.

Looking at the current Twins' roster, however, we find that they've strayed from that foundation. An outfield alignment of Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer possesses plenty of offensive upside but may cover less ground defensively than any other trio in baseball. Glancing up and down the lineup, you're hard-pressed to find three guys capable of swiping 20 or more bases, but you're also hard-pressed to find three (OK, maybe four) guys not capable of bashing 20 or more homers.

Over the years, Chicago has regularly sat near the top of the league in long balls while the Twins have been at the bottom. As recently as 2008, the White Sox ranked first in the American League in home runs while the Twins ranked dead last. This year, there's a pretty realistic chance the Twins will out-homer the Sox. The last time that happened was the last time the Twins won the World Series, back in 1991.

The White Sox will be a team to monitor throughout spring training and throughout the season, as they appear to be the Twins' most formidable competitors for the AL Central crown. For the first time in ages, the Twins may have the more dangerous lineup in this heated rivalry, but conversely the Sox may hold an edge in pitching and defense. It's a strange role reversal, but it should make for another great race in a division that has gained a reputation for improbable outcomes.

Second to None

The Twins made a number of quality additions over the course of the offseason that should enable them to improve on problem areas as they move forward into the 2010. JJ Hardy should make the Twins better at the shorstop position if he can rebound even moderately from a rough 2009 campaign. Jim Thome adds a veteran power threat that was amiss on the bench last season. Clay Condrey provides another solid righty option out of a bullpen that was at times so thin that it forced the team to rely on Bobby Keppel in key situations.

Given the flaws on last year's team, though, no offseason acquisition by Bill Smith looms larger than the most recent: the signing of Orlando Hudson.

Hudson overtakes the reigns at second base, a position from which the Twins received an abysmal .209/.302/.267 hitting line last season. Provided that he's healthy, Hudson -- a .282/.348/.431 career hitter -- will almost certainly improve significantly on that number this year. But teams can live with a poor hitter at second base, provided they bury him at the bottom of the order and place competent hitters around him on the field. Indeed, Hudson's most important function might be filling the second spot in the batting order, which was a major liability for this team a year ago.

In The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, noted sabermetrician Tom Tango teamed up with Mitchel Litchman and Andrew Dolphin to analyze strategic decision-making in baseball based on years of historical data. One chapter in the book addresses lineup construction, and perhaps the most striking conclusion drawn by the authors is that the No. 2 spot in the order is actually more important to run production than the No. 3 spot. To quote a paragraph from the book:

The run values of each event favor the #2 hitter over the #3 hitter by .02 to .03 runs. And this is across the board, except for the HR (which is even). Likewise, the run values of the #4 hitter's events are all higher than those of the #3 hitter. This means that the #3 hitter should be worse than the #2 and #4 hitters. For most teams, the gap in talent between the #3 and #2 slots is enormous and that talent is concenterated in the #3 slot. This is simply wrong.

Many people disagree with this blatant rejection of traditional baseball thought, and in truth the disparity in "run values" between the two lineup spots as outlined in the book is so small that even if you buy into the authors' reasoning, there's still no call to disparage managers who elect to bat their best hitter third. But what's clear from this study and others -- not to mention common sense, really -- is that having a strong hitter in the two-hole is highly important. The No. 2 hitter figures to receive the second-most plate appearances of any player on the team and also generally bats in front of the club's very best hitters.

Last year, the Twins' No. 2 hitters combined for a .262/.306/.394 line, which is pretty weak even without accounting for the fact that Joe Mauer made 142 plate appearances in that spot (posting a spectacular 1158 OPS). If you remove Mauer's at-bats, the Twins got an absolutely dreadful .232/.272/.326 line from the second spot in the order. It goes without saying that having that kind of production directly in front of the league's best hitter (as Mauer was typically batting third when he wasn't batting second, with the exception of April when he didn't play) is beyond unacceptable.

Hudson has seen his performance fluctuate some over the years, but he has been steady in the OBP department as of late. In each of the past four seasons, he has reached base at a clip of .354 or higher, putting him well above the league average. If he can produce at close to that rate while also providing his usual strong batting average and solid power output, Hudson will give the Twins a massive upgrade in front of Mauer.

Ron Gardenhire loves to write players who can bunt and execute the hit-and-runs into the second spot in his lineups. Certainly, Hudson is a guy who can do those things. But he's also a very competent hitter overall, and his presence could give Mauer a legitimate shot at posting his first 100-RBI campaign.

I slammed my head into my desk last year every time Orlando Cabrera, Alexi Casilla, Nick Punto or whoever else occupying the two-spot ended a rally by making the third out while Mauer stood in the on-deck circle. So, at the very least, Hudson's addition to the lineup should be beneficial for my forehead.

NTB Top 10 Twins Prospects: 2010

Last year I posted a Top Ten Prospects list for the first time since this blog launched. I'd been hesitant to jump into the fray with a top prospects list in the past since so many other bloggers and writers already create these rankings and I didn't see much need to come up with my own given that they would likely mirror the other ones out there pretty closely.

Yet, I think I found a good way to put the list to use. At the beginning of each month, I would post a "Prospect Rundown," highlighting the performances of each of my top ten prospects during the past month (you can click here for an example). This proved to be a good way for me to keep up with the progress of some of the organization's most prominent up-and-comers, and hopefully everyone else found them useful as well.

So, below is my ranking of the organization's top ten prospects as we enter the 2010 season. If people found the monthly rundowns worthwhile, I'll continue with those this year. (And if you found them worthless, don't hesitate to let me know.) Alongside each prospect's name is their position, the level they finished at last season and where they ranked on last year's list.

10. Joe Benson, OF | Class-A+ Ft. Myers (NR)
When the Twins plucked Benson in the second round of the '06 draft, he was the type of player that warranted immediate excitement. A tremendous high school athlete who excelled in baseball and football, Benson had a well-rounded set of tools that screamed upside. Unfortunately, injuries and a lack of strike zone control bogged down Benson's first few years as a professional. Last year in Ft. Myers, Benson finally started to display the promise that the Twins saw when they drafted him, batting .283 with an excellent .414 on-base percentage. Benson turns 22 next week and will likely open the season in New Britain, where he'll need to ramp up his power in order to transform into a legitimate big-league prospect.

9. Carlos Gutierrez, RP | Class-AA New Britain (NR)
Last year, Gutierrez just missed making this list, as I noted that he'd performed well in an initial stint at Ft. Myers but added that I'd "need to see more from him before I'm willing to call him a Top 10 prospect." Well, Gutierrez showed plenty in his first year with the Miracle, utilizing his boring fastball to induce ground balls 68.6 percent of the time while holding opponents to a measly .196 average and posting a 1.32 ERA and allowing only one home run. Gutierrez stalled after a midseason promotion to Double-A, posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 52 1/3 innings, which keeps him from ranking higher on this list, but his sinker is for real and he deserves credit for reaching New Britain in his first year as a pro in the first place.

8. David Bromberg, SP | Class-A+ Ft. Myers (NR)
A tall and burly right-hander who the Twins picked in the 32nd round of the 2005 draft, Bromberg has quietly risen through the ranks at a steady pace while posting surprisingly strong numbers for a guy who lacks dominating stuff. Bromberg has led his respective league in strikeouts for three consecutive years, including last season in the Florida State League when he went 13-4 with a 2.70 ERA and 148-to-63 strikeout-to-walk ratio for the Miracle. Bromberg's lack of outstanding velocity and control will be put to the test as he delves into Double-A this year, but you can't argue with his results up to this point.

7. Danny Valencia, 3B | Class-AAA Rochester (5)
After ranking fifth on this list last year, Valencia came out of the gates fast in New Britain with a .284/.373/.482 hitting line that earned him a midseason promotion to Rochester. There, Valencia continued to hit for a strong average (.286) with solid power (.454 SLG, 7 homers and 24 doubles in 282 PA). It was a bit troubling to see Valencia's OBP drop to .305 thanks to a 37-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but it's worth noting that the third baseman posted a 70-to-18 mark in that category after being promoted to Double-A in 2008 only to adjust and post a 40-to-31 ratio there in the first half last year. If he can make those same adjustments in Rochester this year, it'd be no surprise to see him manning the hot corner for the Twins in the second half this season, especially if Brendan Harris and/or Nick Punto struggle in the early months.

6. Angel Morales, OF | Class-A Beloit (9)
Morales seems to be one of those players that steps into the batter's box, closes his eyes and swings as hard as he can. The result is a lot of strikeouts (104 in 418 plate appearances last year for a 24.9 percent rate that was actually an improvement on his 33 percent rate from 2008) and a lot of power. In a league that generally suppresses offensive numbers, Morales ripped 13 homers, 22 doubles and five triples, leading to a .455 slugging percentage in spite of his pedestrian .266 batting average. He also displayed good speed, swiping 19 bases in 25 attempts and continuing to impress scouts with his work in the outfield. Morales' lack of plate discipline raises some major red flags, but it's tough not to get excited about an outfielder with his kind of athleticism and raw power who, by the way, is still only 20 years old.

5. Miguel Angel Sano, SS | N/A (NR)
As far as prospects go, Sano is an interesting case. On the one hand, most of us have never seen him play and we don't even have any professional numbers to work off of in assessing him. On the other hand, he was perhaps the most highly sought international prospect last year and he came to the Twins on a massive $3.15 million signing bonus that easily ranks as the largest in franchise history for a foreign prospect. Additionally, scouts rave about his almost limitless offensive upside. If all the talk is true, Sano could easily shoot to the top of this list very quickly, but first he'll have to show us something. That's why he'll be a very interesting player to follow this season.

4. Ben Revere, OF | Class-A+ Ft. Myers (3)
I've been fairly skittish on Revere for some time now. Last offseason, I made a case that the Twins might be wise to move him while his value was high, as he'd just come off a stellar season in which he'd led all the minors in batting average. While most people ranked him first or second on their preseason prospect lists prior to the '09 campaign, I had him third for fear that if his sky-high batting average come down his overall numbers would start to look rather ordinary. As it would turn out, that's just what happened. Revere's average dropped from .379 to .311, and as a result his OPS dropped from .930 to .741. He's still a highly disciplined hitter with excellent speed on the basepaths and great range in the outfield, but unless Revere can add some semblance of power to his game, he'll project as more Juan Pierre than Carl Crawford in the big leagues.

3. Kyle Gibson, SP | N/A (NR)
With Matt Garza, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and others, the Twins have proven incredibly adept at using high picks to draft polished college starters and moving them quickly through the minors. Gibson looks like he might fall right into this mold. A dominating starter at the University of Missouri, Gibson was projected by many as a top-10 draft pick but he fell to the Twins at No. 22 overall due to questions about a forearm injury suffered during his senior year. Fortunately, he seems to have put the injury behind him and will start the season in Ft. Myers, where he'll seek to follow a similar path to Garza, who went from Single-A to the majors in a single season.

2. Wilson Ramos, C | Class-AA New Britain (2)
Injuries cut Ramos' 2009 season short, limiting him to just 54 games and 214 plate appearances with the Rock Cats, but when he was in the lineup he posted an excellent .317/.341/.454 line while cutting down significantly on his strikeout rate from the previous year and continuing to impress with his work behind the plate. He didn't slow down a big in winter ball, where he carved up opposing pitchers with a .332/.397/.582 hitting line to go along with 12 homers and 49 RBI in 54 games. Still just 22 years old, Ramos is quickly establishing himself as one of the game's best upcoming backstops. Unfortunately, he's in one of the worst organizations to do so.

1. Aaron Hicks, OF | Class-A Beloit (1)
After ranking on top of this list a year ago, Hicks put forth a somewhat underwhelming season in 2009. He spent the first half the year in extended spring training, and when the Twins finally sent him to Beloit the outfielder hit just .251 with four homers in 67 games while going just 10-for-18 on stolen base attempts. Of course, Hicks was also only 19 years old, and he did manage to draw an impressive 40 walks (against 55 strikeouts) in 297 plate appearances, proving that the advanced plate discipline he displayed in his rookie debut was no mirage. Recently ranked as the No. 19 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America, Hicks has immense tools and seems poised to unleash them this year as he takes on his first full season of competitive pro baseball.

TwinsCentric on StarTribune.com

No new entry here for today, but feel free to go and check out my introductory post over at the brand spankin' new TwinsCentric blog on the Star Tribune's website.

2010 Spring Training Preview

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Ft. Myers and spring training is officially underway for the Twins. This year's kickoff carries with it even more excitement than usual, as the Twins had a busy offseason and are preparing to open a brand new stadium when the regular season starts in April. Before we get to meaningful baseball at Target Field, though, we've got five weeks of practice and exhibition play to get through down on Florida. And these weeks should contain plenty of intrigue in their own right.

This year's iteration of spring training will feature a number of high-profile new faces (a rarity for the Twins) as well as a number of key players looking to prove that they're healthy after missing significant time last year. Today, we'll go over a few stories to follow as well as breaking down some of the roster battles that will be taking place.

Worth Keeping an Eye On...

* Justin Morneau's back. Morneau missed the stretch run last year due to a stress fracture in his lower back, and he also had a minor surgery on his hand during the offseason. The official word is that both issues are now behind Morneau, but after seeing Morneau's performance drop off a cliff in the week's preceding his being shut down last year, fans might need to see him comfortably driving balls over the fence again before they can fully regain confidence in them.

* Francisco Liriano's command. We've all heard the stories and seen the numbers from winter ball. Liriano dominated the competition and had scouts raving that he is looking a lot like the stud who took the league by storm back in 2006. But carrying that success back the states will be a major test for Liriano, and if he can't locate his fastball and get ahead in the count he's likely to experience many of the same problems from last year, even if his velocity has almost fully returned.

* Pat Neshek's elbow. He missed much of the 2008 season after injuring his elbow, and missed all of the '09 campaign after that injury ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Now, like all TJ survivors, Neshek must relearn how to throw and get out big-league hitters after a long layoff. The bullpen is fairly crowded, so Neshek will really have to wow the coaching staff in order to earn a spot on the Twins' roster out of spring training. The more likely scenario is that he starts out in Rochester.

* Joe Mauer's contract status. I thought it would be done by the start of spring training. Obviously, that hasn't happened. I still think it will get done before the start of the regular season, but now the clock is ticking on that deadline as well. Undoubtedly, the Twins and Mauer would love for the thing to just get taken care of, as the barrage of media attention focusing on Mauer's contract will only serve as a distraction from what he and the team are seeking to accomplish this year.

* Jose Mijares' baggage. Another year, another set of issues with Mijares, who continues to give the team unwanted headaches. This year, he missed the reporting date for pitchers and catchers because he once again failed to get his visa issues straightened out. A history of other issues, both on and off the field, has to have the organization's patience wearing thin.

Position Battles

Starting Third Baseman
The acquisitions of Hudson and Hardy leave third base as the only infield position that is up for grabs as we head into spring training. Nick Punto enters with an early edge given his strong finish last year and Ron Gardenhire's unabashed affinity for him, but the team made a substantial commitment to Brendan Harris by handing him a two-year contract this winter. The best guess is that these two will split starts at the hot corner, but the performances of Harris and Punto this spring might help decide who gets the Opening Day nod and who gets the lion's share of playing time early in the season.

Favorite: Nick Punto

Fifth Starter
Right-handers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn are essentially locked into the top four slots in the rotation, leaving southpaws Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins and Liriano to battle for the final spot. Perkins is currently on shaky ground with the organization and trying to battle back from an unproductive and injury-plagued season, so he definitely enters this contest as the long-shot (assuming he doesn't get traded within the next month). Duensing performed very well after joining the rotation, giving him an advantage, but Liriano's excellent work in winter ball gives him some momentum. If Liriano is mowing down hitters in the Grapefruit League like he was in the Dominican Winter League, I don't see how he misses out on a rotation spot.

Favorite: Francisco Liriano

Backup Catcher
Thanks to his strong offensive performance in limited duty with the Twins last year, Jose Morales would be the odds-on favorite if all things were even, but he underwent wrist surgery late last month and still had a cast on when he arrived in Ft. Myers. That cast is scheduled to be removed next week and Morales still could conceivably win the backup job if he gets up to speed quickly, but defensive specialist Drew Butera appears to be the more likely candidate at this point. Wilson Ramos has an outside shot at coming north with the club, but he's 22 and hasn't played above Double-A. Plus, it wouldn't make a ton of sense to start Ramos' big-league service clock just so he can play once a week or so as Mauer's caddy.

Favorite: Drew Butera

Final Bench Spot
Nine starting position players and five starting pitchers leaves 11 remaining roster spots to be divvied up among the bullpen and the bench. Ten of those spots are effectively claimed, leaving one spot available. It's not clear right now whether the Twins will choose to fill that spot with another reliever or an additional bench player. If it's a reliever, it will likely be the loser of the battle for the fifth rotation spot, or perhaps Neshek. If it's a bench player, it would likely be an outfielder who could back up Denard Span in center, with Jacque Jones and Charlton Jimerson standing as the lead candidates. For now, I'll guess that Gardenhire favors additional bullpen flexibility, particularly since none of the current members of the pen seem suited for long relief.

Favorite: Brian Duensing

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With all that in mind, here's my early (and probably not very accurate) guess at how the Twins' 25-man Opening Day roster will shake out:

STARTERS
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Orlando Hudson
3B: Nick Punto
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Delmon Young
CF: Denard Span
RF: Michael Cuddyer
DH: Jason Kubel

BENCH
C: Drew Butera
IF: Jim Thome
IF: Brendan Harris
IF/OF: Matt Tolbert

ROTATION
SP: Scott Baker
SP: Carl Pavano
SP: Kevin Slowey
SP: Nick Blackburn
SP: Francisco Liriano

BULLPEN
RP: Joe Nathan
RP: Matt Guerrier
RP: Jose Mijares
RP: Jon Rauch
RP: Jesse Crain
RP: Clay Condrey
RP: Brian Duensing

Your own guesses are welcome in the comments section.