2010 Spring Training Preview

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Ft. Myers and spring training is officially underway for the Twins. This year's kickoff carries with it even more excitement than usual, as the Twins had a busy offseason and are preparing to open a brand new stadium when the regular season starts in April. Before we get to meaningful baseball at Target Field, though, we've got five weeks of practice and exhibition play to get through down on Florida. And these weeks should contain plenty of intrigue in their own right.

This year's iteration of spring training will feature a number of high-profile new faces (a rarity for the Twins) as well as a number of key players looking to prove that they're healthy after missing significant time last year. Today, we'll go over a few stories to follow as well as breaking down some of the roster battles that will be taking place.

Worth Keeping an Eye On...

* Justin Morneau's back. Morneau missed the stretch run last year due to a stress fracture in his lower back, and he also had a minor surgery on his hand during the offseason. The official word is that both issues are now behind Morneau, but after seeing Morneau's performance drop off a cliff in the week's preceding his being shut down last year, fans might need to see him comfortably driving balls over the fence again before they can fully regain confidence in them.

* Francisco Liriano's command. We've all heard the stories and seen the numbers from winter ball. Liriano dominated the competition and had scouts raving that he is looking a lot like the stud who took the league by storm back in 2006. But carrying that success back the states will be a major test for Liriano, and if he can't locate his fastball and get ahead in the count he's likely to experience many of the same problems from last year, even if his velocity has almost fully returned.

* Pat Neshek's elbow. He missed much of the 2008 season after injuring his elbow, and missed all of the '09 campaign after that injury ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Now, like all TJ survivors, Neshek must relearn how to throw and get out big-league hitters after a long layoff. The bullpen is fairly crowded, so Neshek will really have to wow the coaching staff in order to earn a spot on the Twins' roster out of spring training. The more likely scenario is that he starts out in Rochester.

* Joe Mauer's contract status. I thought it would be done by the start of spring training. Obviously, that hasn't happened. I still think it will get done before the start of the regular season, but now the clock is ticking on that deadline as well. Undoubtedly, the Twins and Mauer would love for the thing to just get taken care of, as the barrage of media attention focusing on Mauer's contract will only serve as a distraction from what he and the team are seeking to accomplish this year.

* Jose Mijares' baggage. Another year, another set of issues with Mijares, who continues to give the team unwanted headaches. This year, he missed the reporting date for pitchers and catchers because he once again failed to get his visa issues straightened out. A history of other issues, both on and off the field, has to have the organization's patience wearing thin.

Position Battles

Starting Third Baseman
The acquisitions of Hudson and Hardy leave third base as the only infield position that is up for grabs as we head into spring training. Nick Punto enters with an early edge given his strong finish last year and Ron Gardenhire's unabashed affinity for him, but the team made a substantial commitment to Brendan Harris by handing him a two-year contract this winter. The best guess is that these two will split starts at the hot corner, but the performances of Harris and Punto this spring might help decide who gets the Opening Day nod and who gets the lion's share of playing time early in the season.

Favorite: Nick Punto

Fifth Starter
Right-handers Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn are essentially locked into the top four slots in the rotation, leaving southpaws Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins and Liriano to battle for the final spot. Perkins is currently on shaky ground with the organization and trying to battle back from an unproductive and injury-plagued season, so he definitely enters this contest as the long-shot (assuming he doesn't get traded within the next month). Duensing performed very well after joining the rotation, giving him an advantage, but Liriano's excellent work in winter ball gives him some momentum. If Liriano is mowing down hitters in the Grapefruit League like he was in the Dominican Winter League, I don't see how he misses out on a rotation spot.

Favorite: Francisco Liriano

Backup Catcher
Thanks to his strong offensive performance in limited duty with the Twins last year, Jose Morales would be the odds-on favorite if all things were even, but he underwent wrist surgery late last month and still had a cast on when he arrived in Ft. Myers. That cast is scheduled to be removed next week and Morales still could conceivably win the backup job if he gets up to speed quickly, but defensive specialist Drew Butera appears to be the more likely candidate at this point. Wilson Ramos has an outside shot at coming north with the club, but he's 22 and hasn't played above Double-A. Plus, it wouldn't make a ton of sense to start Ramos' big-league service clock just so he can play once a week or so as Mauer's caddy.

Favorite: Drew Butera

Final Bench Spot
Nine starting position players and five starting pitchers leaves 11 remaining roster spots to be divvied up among the bullpen and the bench. Ten of those spots are effectively claimed, leaving one spot available. It's not clear right now whether the Twins will choose to fill that spot with another reliever or an additional bench player. If it's a reliever, it will likely be the loser of the battle for the fifth rotation spot, or perhaps Neshek. If it's a bench player, it would likely be an outfielder who could back up Denard Span in center, with Jacque Jones and Charlton Jimerson standing as the lead candidates. For now, I'll guess that Gardenhire favors additional bullpen flexibility, particularly since none of the current members of the pen seem suited for long relief.

Favorite: Brian Duensing

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With all that in mind, here's my early (and probably not very accurate) guess at how the Twins' 25-man Opening Day roster will shake out:

STARTERS
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Orlando Hudson
3B: Nick Punto
SS: J.J. Hardy
LF: Delmon Young
CF: Denard Span
RF: Michael Cuddyer
DH: Jason Kubel

BENCH
C: Drew Butera
IF: Jim Thome
IF: Brendan Harris
IF/OF: Matt Tolbert

ROTATION
SP: Scott Baker
SP: Carl Pavano
SP: Kevin Slowey
SP: Nick Blackburn
SP: Francisco Liriano

BULLPEN
RP: Joe Nathan
RP: Matt Guerrier
RP: Jose Mijares
RP: Jon Rauch
RP: Jesse Crain
RP: Clay Condrey
RP: Brian Duensing

Your own guesses are welcome in the comments section.

You're Cut

"Now it's time for the easiest part of any coach's job: the cuts. Although I wasn't able to cut everyone I wanted to, I did cut a lot of you. Wendell is cut. Rudy is cut. Janey, you're gone. Steven, I like your hustle. That's why it was so hard to cut you. Congratulations, the rest of you made the team! Except you, you and you."
- Homer Simpson, pee-wee football coach.

The Twins made their first round of spring cuts on Sunday morning, sending 12 players to the organization's minor-league camp. The group includes the following: pitchers Zach Day, Deolis Guerra, Oswaldo Sosa, Jose Mijares, Armondo Gabino and Brian Duensing; catchers Jose Morales, Allen de San Miguel and Jeff Christy; infielders Alejandro Machado and Felix Molina; and outfielder Darnell McDonald. Among these names, the only ones that are mildly surprising are Duensing, Morales and Machado.

It seemed like Duensing would be a strong contender for the fifth spot in the Twins' rotation this spring after effectively conquering Triple-A last year, posting a 3.24 ERA over 116 2/3 innings there following a mid-season promotion from New Britain. Yet, for whatever reason, Duensing never seemed to be a legitimate contender to make the Opening Day roster despite possessing a reliable left arm. His name was rarely mentioned in the local papers when that fifth rotation spot was being discussed, and that means the beat writers probably weren't hearing about him much from team officials. Duensing struggled mightily in two appearances this spring, allowing five runs, five hits and five walks in 2 1/3 innings, but it's a little surprising that the Twins didn't give him more of an opportunity to showcase his skills.

Morales had a very good season in Rochester in 2007, batting .311/.366/.399 while showing some solid skills behind the plate, but he won't be on the major-league roster as long as Mike Redmond and Joe Mauer are both healthy, so there wasn't much sense in keeping him in the big-league camp.

Machado was one of about 4,523,309 utility infielders in the Twins' camp, but he is by all accounts a good defender and his plate discipline (.372 minor-league OBP) makes him an intriguing prospect, so I wouldn't have minded seeing him stick around for a bit longer.

Nonetheless, none of the cuts from this first round came as a big surprise, and there are still a lot of important decisions to be made. For what it's worth, Ron Gardenhire has indicated that Carlos Gomez may have an upper hand in the battle for center field, despite having batted .190/.208/.333 in 21 at-bats this spring:

"Sometimes with young hitters, it's better to get them 500 to 550 at-bats than worry about on-base percentage," Gardenhire said. "Just let them play."

D'oh! Homer would be proud.