The title of this post is more than just a reference to one of my (and Mosvick's) favorite movies of all time. It's a reference to the three players the Twins lost in Wednesdays blockbuster swap with the Tampa Bay Rays.
There will undoubtedly be much analysis over the next weeks and months of the players the Twins received in this trade: Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. There will be plenty of that here, too, but for today I think it's important to take a look at the players who have exited the Twins' organization. Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan were Twins property on Tuesday, and now they aren't. What are the possible repercussions of losing these players? How will the team absorb the losses? What is the overarching effect?
Make no mistake, this is not a Terry Ryan type trade. Ryan traded A.J. Pierzynski when he had Joe Mauer waiting in the wings. He traded Bobby Kielty when he had a surplus of outfielders. There are a lot of adjectives that could be attached to Ryan's general style when it came to player transactions, but "risky" would certainly not be one of them.
The rookie GM Bill Smith hasn't been on the job for two full months yet, and already he's stepped out and made a move that is riskier than any Ryan made during his lengthy tenure. Smith was dealing from a surplus by trading a pair of pitching prospects, to be sure, but Garza was the only young pitcher in this organization with ace potential written all over him (aside from Francisco Liriano, who is of course a huge question at this time). Meanwhile, Morlan was the only player in the Twins' minor-league system that seemed to be a legitimate candidate to take over the closer role upon Joe Nathan's likely departure following the 2008 season (that is, if he isn't traded this winter). Bartlett was a good defensive shortstop with speed and a solid approach at the plate -- that's a valuable thing to have in this league.
What is it that compelled the Twins to trade these players? Surely the fact that the Rays wanted them had a lot to do with it, but I think the reasoning goes deeper. For whatever reason, Garza and Bartlett never seemed to be held in particularly high esteem by this organization. Both were held back in the minors by inferior veterans at one time or another. Twins coaches were frequently quoted in the papers with criticisms of the attitudes of both players. Bartlett lacked "leadership," and Garza was not "mature" enough to pitch at the big-league level. Indeed, both players have posted major-league numbers that can be viewed as disappointing in relation to what they did in the minors.
Garza has a great chance of becoming an outstanding major-league starter. He throws hard and possesses good secondary pitches. Yet, he always seemed tentative about throwing anything other than his fastball, and in 2007 his control -- which was stellar in his breakout 2006 campaign -- took a turn for the worse. If Garza becomes more comfortable with his breaking pitches and his changeup, he could team up with Scott Kazmir to give the Rays a formidable top of the rotation. If he doesn't, this will look like a good trade from the Twins' perspective.
I don't buy into the organization's criticisms of Bartlett and I think he'll end up being a pretty good player in Tampa Bay. He was a great hitter for three seasons in Triple-A, and he showed what he was capable of in the big leagues in 2006, when he hit .309/.367/.393. With that being said, I don't think Bartlett will be much more than an adequate hitter with a good glove and the ability to swipe a base. Of course, that could be much more than the Twins are able to field at shortstop next season.
As I stated in yesterday's post, Morlan is where I start to go sour on this deal. Selected in the third round of the 2004 draft, Morlan cruised his way through the lower levels of the Twins' minor league system while usually posting an exceptional ERA and always striking out more than a batter per inning. Morlan has the ability to hit triple-digits on the radar gun, and his stuff is electric. He finished last season with a short stint in Class-AA New Britain, where he would have started the 2008 season. Ideally, Morlan could have been pitching out of the Twins' bullpen by the end of next season; unfortunately, he's now Tampa Bay's property.
Losing a few of these players could come back to haunt the Twins. That's something that never happened to Ryan, which is the nature of a low-risk operation. Then again, who knows... perhaps Garza will flop in Tampa and Morlan will fizzle out in the high minor leagues. For whatever reason, the Twins seem to have a sense of things like this when trading their own players. Pierzynski had a major drop-off in his one season with the Giants, seeing his OPS drop by over 100 points from his last season with the Twins. Travis Bowyer, whom Ryan traded to the Marlins two years ago in exchange for Luis Castillo, experienced immediate shoulder problems and hasn't pitched an inning of professional baseball since he left the Twins.
Twins fans might be frustrated if they see Garza leading the Rays rotation with Morlan closing games for them in a few years. But one thing that we never really learned with Ryan around is that you have to give up talent if you want to give it back. Smith wanted Delmon Young, and he was going to do what it took to make him a Twin.
As Frank Costello said: "No one gives it to you. You have to take it."
Showing posts with label garza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label garza. Show all posts
Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Sorting Through the Rays Trade
As you are no doubt aware by now, Bill Smith made his first big move as Twins general manager yesterday, agreeing to a deal with the Rays that sends Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay in return for outfielders Delmon Young and Jason Pridie and infielder Brendan Harris.
This is a blockbuster trade, and likely a prelude of things to come. Losing Garza hurts, but the Twins remain likely to bring back a prized pitching prospect in the seemingly inevitable Johan Santana trade.
Meanwhile, the Twins bring in Delmon Young, who turned 22 in September and was viewed for a couple years as the best prospect in all of baseball. Young likely will take over in left field, with Jason Kubel sliding to designated hitter. Tampa Bay took Young, the younger brother of veteran Dmitri Young, with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, and he subsequently cruised through the minor leagues to make his major-league debut at the age of 20. Debuting with the Rays in the final month of the 2006 season, Young hit .317/.336/.476 over 126 at-bats. In 2007, as a 21-year-old, Young hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 of Tampa Bay's games. That line might not seem very impressive, but for a 21-year-old with only three years of pro experience, it's extremely encouraging. Young hit 20+ home runs in both of his first two seasons in the minors and projects as a solid power hitter with very good speed -- he has the makings of a 30 HR/30 SB type player. He is also an excellent defensive corner outfielder with one of the best throwing arms in the game.
The one downside to Young's game is that he has almost no plate discipline. He has posted a sub par .319 on-base percentage over 192 major-league games, despite a very good .293 batting average. In his 2006 big-league debut, Young drew only one walk in 131 plate appearances, which is mind-boggling. Last year, he drew only 26 walks in 681 plate appearances, registering a .316 on-base percentage despite his solid .288 average. Of course, as long as Young can hit for good average and power, his lack of patience at the plate will not be a debilitating weakness.
It is somewhat surprising to see the Twins go for a player like Young, who has a documented history of losing his temper. In 2006, he was famously suspended for 50 games after throwing a bat at an umpire, and he was also suspended in 2005 after bumping an umpire during an altercation during a Double-A game. Obviously, that kind of thing won't be acceptable, but there's little doubt that Young brings a fiery and competitive attitude which, one could argue, might be a good thing for this laid-back, happy-go-lucky group of Twins players.
Garza-for-Young is clearly the meat of this deal, and I like that part, but there were a lot of other players moved in this swap as well, which is where things start to get a little less rosy. It's a bit surprising to see the Twins part with Bartlett, who was a solid shortstop both offensively and defensively with good speed. Then again, it seems like the organization never viewed Bartlett that highly, and Ron Gardenhire frequently seemed to take issue with the shortstop's attitude. From that standpoint, I suppose it's not overly shocking to see him go. The Rays' desire for Bartlett is puzzling, since their system contains one of the game's top shortstop prospects in Reid Brignac, but perhaps a position change is planned for him.
The Morlan part is where I start to dislike this trade. The original deal would have sent Juan Rincon to the Rays along with Garza and Bartlett, which would've been just fine. Some believed that trading the former dominant setup man right now would have been selling low, but I'm convinced that Rincon is a shell of his former self. He's also due a couple million bucks through arbitration next year, which he won't deserve. Unfortunately, the original deal hit a snag when the Rays had concerns over the medical reports on Rincon's elbow, and Smith ended up subbing in Morlan, who is by far the best relief prospect in the Twins system. Many had Morlan pegged to replace Joe Nathan as closer in 2009. Losing him is a huge hit, and with him in the deal, I feel like the Twins gave up way too much value in this trade.
The infielder that comes back to the Twins is Harris, who is coming off a career year in 2007 in which he hit .286/.343/.434 while playing primarily shortstop for the Rays. Prior to '07, he hadn't been much of a hitter in the major leagues, but at 27 he's still relatively young and considering his good minor league numbers, there's plenty of reason to think he can continue to be at least an average hitter. Whether he'll be doing that at shortstop remains to be seen, but I'll get to that a little bit later.
The final player involved in the deal is Pridie, a center fielder. Many will recognize the name because he was with the Twins in spring training as a Rule V pick in 2006, although he ended up being sent back to the Rays. The fact that the Twins gambled on him in the Rule V, however, tells us that he's a player they've had their eyes on for some time. In Triple-A this year, Pridie hit .318/.375/.539 with 10 home runs in 245 at-bats, which makes him look like an MLB-ready prospect. However, those numbers are a far cry from his career minor-league line of .272/.327/.432, so it's entirely possible that those outstanding stats were something of a fluke. Regardless, they're pretty good for a 23-year-old in the highest level of the minors, and there's little question that Pridie at least has the potential to develop into a major-league regular.
I said at the top of this post that yesterday's trade was a prelude of things to come, because it seems to be laying the groundwork for future moves. Because of that fact, we can't fully evaluate the trade at this point. At first glance, it would seem that Harris was brought in to replace Bartlett at shortstop, while Pridie could fill the vacated center field spot. However, Harris is a poor defensive shortstop and it's probably a stretch to think Pridie will be ready to take over a regular gig in the majors at the start of next season. It now seems clear that if the Twins trade Santana, they'll be looking to bring back a premier young starter to replace Garza, and a very good infielder. Could a Jose Reyes deal be in the works with the Mets? Can Smith pry Robinson Cano from the Yankees? We shall see what else is in store.
Upon the initial word of this trade, I was happy and I felt like the new GM was off to a great start. The fact that he had to throw in Morlan to get the deal done makes it much less impressive. The Twins needed hitting, and to his credit, Smith went out and got one of the most highly regarded young hitters in the game. That's good. The Garza-for-Young swap is a good one for both sides.
The rest of this deal doesn't look nearly as good and could turn out to be a large mistake. Unless Morlan breaks down, Pridie is going to have to turn out to be a pretty special player for Smith to be vindicated on this move.
This is a blockbuster trade, and likely a prelude of things to come. Losing Garza hurts, but the Twins remain likely to bring back a prized pitching prospect in the seemingly inevitable Johan Santana trade.
Meanwhile, the Twins bring in Delmon Young, who turned 22 in September and was viewed for a couple years as the best prospect in all of baseball. Young likely will take over in left field, with Jason Kubel sliding to designated hitter. Tampa Bay took Young, the younger brother of veteran Dmitri Young, with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft, and he subsequently cruised through the minor leagues to make his major-league debut at the age of 20. Debuting with the Rays in the final month of the 2006 season, Young hit .317/.336/.476 over 126 at-bats. In 2007, as a 21-year-old, Young hit .288/.316/.408 with 13 home runs and 93 RBI while playing in all 162 of Tampa Bay's games. That line might not seem very impressive, but for a 21-year-old with only three years of pro experience, it's extremely encouraging. Young hit 20+ home runs in both of his first two seasons in the minors and projects as a solid power hitter with very good speed -- he has the makings of a 30 HR/30 SB type player. He is also an excellent defensive corner outfielder with one of the best throwing arms in the game.
The one downside to Young's game is that he has almost no plate discipline. He has posted a sub par .319 on-base percentage over 192 major-league games, despite a very good .293 batting average. In his 2006 big-league debut, Young drew only one walk in 131 plate appearances, which is mind-boggling. Last year, he drew only 26 walks in 681 plate appearances, registering a .316 on-base percentage despite his solid .288 average. Of course, as long as Young can hit for good average and power, his lack of patience at the plate will not be a debilitating weakness.
It is somewhat surprising to see the Twins go for a player like Young, who has a documented history of losing his temper. In 2006, he was famously suspended for 50 games after throwing a bat at an umpire, and he was also suspended in 2005 after bumping an umpire during an altercation during a Double-A game. Obviously, that kind of thing won't be acceptable, but there's little doubt that Young brings a fiery and competitive attitude which, one could argue, might be a good thing for this laid-back, happy-go-lucky group of Twins players.
Garza-for-Young is clearly the meat of this deal, and I like that part, but there were a lot of other players moved in this swap as well, which is where things start to get a little less rosy. It's a bit surprising to see the Twins part with Bartlett, who was a solid shortstop both offensively and defensively with good speed. Then again, it seems like the organization never viewed Bartlett that highly, and Ron Gardenhire frequently seemed to take issue with the shortstop's attitude. From that standpoint, I suppose it's not overly shocking to see him go. The Rays' desire for Bartlett is puzzling, since their system contains one of the game's top shortstop prospects in Reid Brignac, but perhaps a position change is planned for him.
The Morlan part is where I start to dislike this trade. The original deal would have sent Juan Rincon to the Rays along with Garza and Bartlett, which would've been just fine. Some believed that trading the former dominant setup man right now would have been selling low, but I'm convinced that Rincon is a shell of his former self. He's also due a couple million bucks through arbitration next year, which he won't deserve. Unfortunately, the original deal hit a snag when the Rays had concerns over the medical reports on Rincon's elbow, and Smith ended up subbing in Morlan, who is by far the best relief prospect in the Twins system. Many had Morlan pegged to replace Joe Nathan as closer in 2009. Losing him is a huge hit, and with him in the deal, I feel like the Twins gave up way too much value in this trade.
The infielder that comes back to the Twins is Harris, who is coming off a career year in 2007 in which he hit .286/.343/.434 while playing primarily shortstop for the Rays. Prior to '07, he hadn't been much of a hitter in the major leagues, but at 27 he's still relatively young and considering his good minor league numbers, there's plenty of reason to think he can continue to be at least an average hitter. Whether he'll be doing that at shortstop remains to be seen, but I'll get to that a little bit later.
The final player involved in the deal is Pridie, a center fielder. Many will recognize the name because he was with the Twins in spring training as a Rule V pick in 2006, although he ended up being sent back to the Rays. The fact that the Twins gambled on him in the Rule V, however, tells us that he's a player they've had their eyes on for some time. In Triple-A this year, Pridie hit .318/.375/.539 with 10 home runs in 245 at-bats, which makes him look like an MLB-ready prospect. However, those numbers are a far cry from his career minor-league line of .272/.327/.432, so it's entirely possible that those outstanding stats were something of a fluke. Regardless, they're pretty good for a 23-year-old in the highest level of the minors, and there's little question that Pridie at least has the potential to develop into a major-league regular.
I said at the top of this post that yesterday's trade was a prelude of things to come, because it seems to be laying the groundwork for future moves. Because of that fact, we can't fully evaluate the trade at this point. At first glance, it would seem that Harris was brought in to replace Bartlett at shortstop, while Pridie could fill the vacated center field spot. However, Harris is a poor defensive shortstop and it's probably a stretch to think Pridie will be ready to take over a regular gig in the majors at the start of next season. It now seems clear that if the Twins trade Santana, they'll be looking to bring back a premier young starter to replace Garza, and a very good infielder. Could a Jose Reyes deal be in the works with the Mets? Can Smith pry Robinson Cano from the Yankees? We shall see what else is in store.
Upon the initial word of this trade, I was happy and I felt like the new GM was off to a great start. The fact that he had to throw in Morlan to get the deal done makes it much less impressive. The Twins needed hitting, and to his credit, Smith went out and got one of the most highly regarded young hitters in the game. That's good. The Garza-for-Young swap is a good one for both sides.
The rest of this deal doesn't look nearly as good and could turn out to be a large mistake. Unless Morlan breaks down, Pridie is going to have to turn out to be a pretty special player for Smith to be vindicated on this move.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Update: Twins/Rays Close To Deal
It appears that yesterday's reports of a deal being imminent between Twins and Rays were correct, although not the part about Boof Bonser being involved. A deal is reportedly in place that will send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon to the Rays in return for outfielder Delmon Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie. This is a blockbuster, folks. Much more analysis tomorrow.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Garza's Gopherballs
Entering last night's game, Matt Garza had allowed just one home run in 44 innings since joining the Twins this season. Fly balls hit against him had been turning into home runs at a rate of just 2.4 percent, which was pretty clearly unsustainable (the AL average HR/FB rate is 10 percent). Because of this, I had a feeling that his home run rate would catch up with him, but I didn't realize it would happen as quickly as it did last night.
Garza surrendered a pair of two-run homers in the first inning, a solo shot in the second inning, and another two-run blast in the third, at which point he was pulled from the game. Garza's final line for the night -- 2.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 2 K -- was very similar to the brutal one he posted in his major-league debut last year (2.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2K). After last night's shelling, Garza's ERA is up from 2.05 to 3.30, and his BAA is up from .255 to .285. A rough outing, to be sure, but let's hope he can bounce back his next time out.
The offense came up mostly empty as usual, scoring just two runs over the first seven innings against the hapless Horacio Ramirez before adding a couple meaningless runs in the eighth. As I mentioned the last time the Twins faced Ramirez less than a week ago, he is one of the worst pitchers in the league. Last night's game marked the first time this season that he pitched into the eighth inning; in fact, he had pitched into the seventh only three times in 14 starts. The Twins failed to draw a single walk against him, and when they actually got runners aboard they let Ramirez off the hook with bad baserunning and a typical lack of situational hitting. Twins hitters went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position, and are a ghastly 4-for-43 in such situations over their past five games.
Tonight's pitching match-up is a rematch of the one that took place last Thursday, when the Twins won 6-1 to take the series in Seattle. Jarrod Washburn, who will start for the Mariners, is very much a fly ball pitcher, as he's induced ground balls at just a 38.8 percent rate this year. He also leads the league with an infield fly ball percentage of 15.7. Baker does not have enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but if he did, he would have the lowest GB% in the league at 33.2, and he would rank second behind Washburn in IF/F with his 14.6. In other words, don't expect a lot of balls to be smashed into the Metrodome turf tonight.
Garza surrendered a pair of two-run homers in the first inning, a solo shot in the second inning, and another two-run blast in the third, at which point he was pulled from the game. Garza's final line for the night -- 2.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 2 K -- was very similar to the brutal one he posted in his major-league debut last year (2.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2K). After last night's shelling, Garza's ERA is up from 2.05 to 3.30, and his BAA is up from .255 to .285. A rough outing, to be sure, but let's hope he can bounce back his next time out.
The offense came up mostly empty as usual, scoring just two runs over the first seven innings against the hapless Horacio Ramirez before adding a couple meaningless runs in the eighth. As I mentioned the last time the Twins faced Ramirez less than a week ago, he is one of the worst pitchers in the league. Last night's game marked the first time this season that he pitched into the eighth inning; in fact, he had pitched into the seventh only three times in 14 starts. The Twins failed to draw a single walk against him, and when they actually got runners aboard they let Ramirez off the hook with bad baserunning and a typical lack of situational hitting. Twins hitters went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position, and are a ghastly 4-for-43 in such situations over their past five games.
Tonight's pitching match-up is a rematch of the one that took place last Thursday, when the Twins won 6-1 to take the series in Seattle. Jarrod Washburn, who will start for the Mariners, is very much a fly ball pitcher, as he's induced ground balls at just a 38.8 percent rate this year. He also leads the league with an infield fly ball percentage of 15.7. Baker does not have enough innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but if he did, he would have the lowest GB% in the league at 33.2, and he would rank second behind Washburn in IF/F with his 14.6. In other words, don't expect a lot of balls to be smashed into the Metrodome turf tonight.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
The Hardest of Luck
In their last two games against the Tigers, the Twins have given up a total of two runs... and lost twice. The last time the two teams faced off, on July 1, Scott Baker was the hard-luck loser, as he delivered eight terrific innings while allowing just one run on a late solo homer by Marcus Thames but got zero run support . Last night, Matt Garza had even worse luck. In seven innings, Garza allowed just one unearned run, yet he was saddled with the loss as the Twins came up empty against Nate Robertson and the Detroit bullpen.
I was at the game, sitting in the third row behind the Tigers' dugout, so I was lucky enough to have a terrific view of Garza as he spun his gem. His fastball didn't seem to have its usual zip and he was frequently missing with his breaking balls, which explains why he collected only three strikeouts, but he still held the powerful Detroit lineup to just three hits over seven innings. That's a great sign. Sadly, because his offense could not support him with a single run, Garza now finds himself with a 0.00 ERA over 15 innings and a 1-1 record. You don't see that too often.
Last night's inept offensive performance is much less defensible than the one put forth back on July 1. In that game, the opposing starter was Jeremy Bonderman, who had good numbers on the year and had at least shown the potential to dominate. Robertson entered last night's game with a 5-6 record to go along with a 4.92 ERA and .300 BAA. He had struck out just 48 in 82 1/3 innings. For the Twins to fail to score a run against him over seven innings while collecting just three hits and striking out five times is shameful, particularly on a night where their young starter came through with arguably the best outing of his career. Seven starters in the Twins' lineup went hitless in the game. The Twins put runners on first and second with one out in the sixth only to have Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer end the inning by striking out back-to-back. Two innings later, Luis Castillo came up in the same situation and grounded into an inning-ending double play. The 4-9 hitters in the Twins' lineup went a combined 0-for-17. With games like this, it's not hard to see why I wrote up a relatively long post yesterday detailing some things the Twins can do to shore up an offense that is sorely in need of improvement.
Of course, sometimes there are things a manager can do to give his team a better chance to win. Check out the numbers for the following players versus left-handed pitchers:
Lew Ford: .250/.333/.438
Jason Kubel: .279/.340/.395
Jason Tyner: .190/.261/.190
Guess which one got the start in left field against the southpaw Robertson?
I was at the game, sitting in the third row behind the Tigers' dugout, so I was lucky enough to have a terrific view of Garza as he spun his gem. His fastball didn't seem to have its usual zip and he was frequently missing with his breaking balls, which explains why he collected only three strikeouts, but he still held the powerful Detroit lineup to just three hits over seven innings. That's a great sign. Sadly, because his offense could not support him with a single run, Garza now finds himself with a 0.00 ERA over 15 innings and a 1-1 record. You don't see that too often.
Last night's inept offensive performance is much less defensible than the one put forth back on July 1. In that game, the opposing starter was Jeremy Bonderman, who had good numbers on the year and had at least shown the potential to dominate. Robertson entered last night's game with a 5-6 record to go along with a 4.92 ERA and .300 BAA. He had struck out just 48 in 82 1/3 innings. For the Twins to fail to score a run against him over seven innings while collecting just three hits and striking out five times is shameful, particularly on a night where their young starter came through with arguably the best outing of his career. Seven starters in the Twins' lineup went hitless in the game. The Twins put runners on first and second with one out in the sixth only to have Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer end the inning by striking out back-to-back. Two innings later, Luis Castillo came up in the same situation and grounded into an inning-ending double play. The 4-9 hitters in the Twins' lineup went a combined 0-for-17. With games like this, it's not hard to see why I wrote up a relatively long post yesterday detailing some things the Twins can do to shore up an offense that is sorely in need of improvement.
Of course, sometimes there are things a manager can do to give his team a better chance to win. Check out the numbers for the following players versus left-handed pitchers:
Lew Ford: .250/.333/.438
Jason Kubel: .279/.340/.395
Jason Tyner: .190/.261/.190
Guess which one got the start in left field against the southpaw Robertson?
Saturday, July 07, 2007
Offensive Paradox
Baseball really must be a strange thing or else the last week has only been proof of Ubelmann's (of the SBG nation) contention that the Twins offense is a "pathological kind of offense" that easily goes from absolute anemia to crushing power at any time. If you recall, from the end of the Detroit series through the first two games of the New York series, the Twins scored a total of one run in 30 innings.
Yesterday, in a double-header marathon, the Twins scored a total of 32 runs in just 18 innings. The proof of such a contention isn't just in the obvious difference between the offense of a few games ago and yesterday's offense but proof that the Twins really essentially rely on the bats of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Torii Hunter. Looking at yesterday's games, the trio went 16-for-28 with 18 RBI, 5 walks, eight extra-base hits, five home runs and 16 runs scored. In addition, Jason Kubel went 4-for-7 with two walks and seven RBI in first game, coming from a grand slam, two sacrifice flies, and one RBI walk. With those numbers, Kubel has improved his batting line to .255/.307/.413 and is currently on pace for 15 home runs and 77 RBI.
Overall, the Twins had an very impressive 14 extra-base hits and managed six home runs in the second game, included one from pinch-hitter Jeff Cirillo and another from Michael Cuddyer. More impressive is that the Twins walked a total of 15 times in the two games, continuing to work the Chicago pitchers even when the had large leads. Notably, those walks were evenly distributed, as no Twins batter in either game walked only one time. Other than Jason Tyner's 0-for-6 perfomance in both games, no one really struggled.
Lost in all of this was Matt Garza's very impressive pitching performance in game two. Garza went six scoreless innings, giving up five hits, walking three, and striking out six. What was really nice was seeing Garza use all his pitches and not only use them, but use them well and show the Chicago hitters what kind of nasty stuff he has other than his 96-mph fastball. Along with the heat, which Garza should good command of most of the game, Garza showed a very good curveball and a pretty nasty slider. Garza also apparently has a changeup, but I don't remember him throwing one. Even if he doesn't, with three good pitches, Garza really could end up being the dominant pitcher Twins fans thought was coming up after an amazing minor league season last year.
After seeing such a wonderful and entertaining bashing of the White Sox, which included Morneau's three home-run performance (the first since Tony Oliva in 1973), the hope--as usual after such performances--is that the Twins can continue this. Unfortunately, their opposing pitcher today is Mark Buerhle, who has had a very solid season including a no-hitter this year and the Twins have Boof Bonser on the mound, who has not been very good at all for over a month. Maybe the Twins won't score another 12 or 20 runs in historical fashion, but a complete four-game thrashing of the White Sox in Chitown would be the perfect way to enter the All Star break.
* On a final note, Mike Redmond's injury, which was very hard to watch, confirmed Gardy's three-year fear that caused him to keep such terrible backups Corky Miller, forcing Matt Garza to take a bat. The good news is that Redmond seems to be ok after getting sewn up and Garza went o-for-1 with a good sacrifice bunt.
* Lastly, Aaron Gleeman may be happy to know that the baseball gods decided to punish the worst hitter in baseball history.
Yesterday, in a double-header marathon, the Twins scored a total of 32 runs in just 18 innings. The proof of such a contention isn't just in the obvious difference between the offense of a few games ago and yesterday's offense but proof that the Twins really essentially rely on the bats of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Torii Hunter. Looking at yesterday's games, the trio went 16-for-28 with 18 RBI, 5 walks, eight extra-base hits, five home runs and 16 runs scored. In addition, Jason Kubel went 4-for-7 with two walks and seven RBI in first game, coming from a grand slam, two sacrifice flies, and one RBI walk. With those numbers, Kubel has improved his batting line to .255/.307/.413 and is currently on pace for 15 home runs and 77 RBI.
Overall, the Twins had an very impressive 14 extra-base hits and managed six home runs in the second game, included one from pinch-hitter Jeff Cirillo and another from Michael Cuddyer. More impressive is that the Twins walked a total of 15 times in the two games, continuing to work the Chicago pitchers even when the had large leads. Notably, those walks were evenly distributed, as no Twins batter in either game walked only one time. Other than Jason Tyner's 0-for-6 perfomance in both games, no one really struggled.
Lost in all of this was Matt Garza's very impressive pitching performance in game two. Garza went six scoreless innings, giving up five hits, walking three, and striking out six. What was really nice was seeing Garza use all his pitches and not only use them, but use them well and show the Chicago hitters what kind of nasty stuff he has other than his 96-mph fastball. Along with the heat, which Garza should good command of most of the game, Garza showed a very good curveball and a pretty nasty slider. Garza also apparently has a changeup, but I don't remember him throwing one. Even if he doesn't, with three good pitches, Garza really could end up being the dominant pitcher Twins fans thought was coming up after an amazing minor league season last year.
After seeing such a wonderful and entertaining bashing of the White Sox, which included Morneau's three home-run performance (the first since Tony Oliva in 1973), the hope--as usual after such performances--is that the Twins can continue this. Unfortunately, their opposing pitcher today is Mark Buerhle, who has had a very solid season including a no-hitter this year and the Twins have Boof Bonser on the mound, who has not been very good at all for over a month. Maybe the Twins won't score another 12 or 20 runs in historical fashion, but a complete four-game thrashing of the White Sox in Chitown would be the perfect way to enter the All Star break.
* On a final note, Mike Redmond's injury, which was very hard to watch, confirmed Gardy's three-year fear that caused him to keep such terrible backups Corky Miller, forcing Matt Garza to take a bat. The good news is that Redmond seems to be ok after getting sewn up and Garza went o-for-1 with a good sacrifice bunt.
* Lastly, Aaron Gleeman may be happy to know that the baseball gods decided to punish the worst hitter in baseball history.
Friday, June 29, 2007
Splitsville (Plus LOTS of Notes)
Through three innings, yesterday's game had the makings of a blowout loss for the Twins. They trailed the Blue Jays 5-2, Carlos Silva had already given up five hits and a walk, and Toronto starter A.J. Burnett was cruising with six strikeouts. From that point on however, it was all Twins. Torii Hunter led off the bottom of the fourth with a home run, the first of six unanswered runs the Twins would score over the final five innings as Silva faced just one batter over the minimum from the fourth through the seventh before giving way to the bullpen, which slammed the door with two perfect innings in an 8-5 Twins victory.
Silva's overall line (7 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) was not good, but it was very encouraging to see him settle in and shut down the Blue Jays after a rough start, and it was even more encouraging to see the Twins provide him with some run support for a second consecutive outing. The Twins have been shut out four times this season with Silva on the mound, and they've scored three or fewer runs behind him on four other occasions. In his last two starts, they've scored a total of 19 runs.
In his first game back in the lineup after missing several games with a bruised lung, Justin Morneau went 0-for-3 with a walk and an RBI groundout. Hunter ripped a two-run home run in the fifth inning to put the Twins ahead. It was his second home run of the game and his 17th of the year. Jason Bartlett had a great day at the plate, reaching base three times and hitting his second home run of the year while also stealing a pair of bases. He is now 15-for-15 on the year on stolen base attempts.
And now, a Friday smorgasbord of other notes on the Twins and their minor-league affiliates:
* The Twins recalled Matt Garza from Triple-A yesterday, sending down third-string catcher Chris Heintz to make room on the roster. Garza will start one of the games of the Twins' double-header against the White Sox a week from today, and he'll pitch out of the bullpen up until that point.
Garza has had an up-and-down year in Rochester. He's posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, numbers that are solid but not spectacular. He has struck out 95 batters in 92 innings, but he has frequently struggled with his control, issuing 31 walks over that span after handing out just 32 free passes in 135 2/3 minor league innings last year. Hopefully he can work with Rick Anderson to refine his command at the major-league level, as a lack of control was one of his biggest problems once he reached the big leagues last year.
It's unclear what will happen with Garza after he pitches next Friday. Silva and Bonser have posted solid numbers overall, and Baker is coming off a fantastic outing on Tuesday night that he'll be looking to build on. Kevin Slowey has really struggled to keep the ball in the park, so I suppose that if Garza comes up and pitches well it could be Slowey who heads back to Rochester.
* Joe Nathan picked up his 15th save yesterday with a 1-2-3 ninth inning that included a pair of strikeouts. While his overall numbers are good, Nathan just hasn't been his usual lights-out self this year. He's converted 15 of his 17 save opportunities with a 2.36 ERA, but it's disappointing to see him allowing a .267 opposing batting average after keeping that number below .200 in each of the past five seasons. In 34 1/3 innings this year, Nathan has allowed nine earned runs and 35 hits while striking out 39. In 68 1/3 innings last year, he allowed 12 earned runs and 38 hits while striking out 95.
* Joe Mauer went 0-for-4 in last night's game and 3-for-18 in the four-game series against the Blue Jays. After batting .452 last June, Mauer has batted just .237 this June and has watched his average drop from .353 to .303.
* While Garza was the one to get the call-up, there's another starter pitching for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate who is raising some eyebrows. Nick Blackburn entered last night's game without having allowed an earned run in his last 34 1/3 innings. After tossing seven scoreless frames against the Durham Bulls in a 12-0 Red Wings victory last night, Blackburn has run that streak to 41 1/3 innings. He now holds a 1.57 ERA.
Blackburn is definitely a prospect worth getting to know at this point. He started the season in Double-A, where he went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 38 innings. Being that the right-handed Blackburn is 25 and has a big frame at 6'4", 230 lbs, the Twins wanted to see what he could do at the next level so they promoted him to Rochester. After coming out of the gates with a 4.99 ERA over his first three starts in Triple-A, Blackburn has put together an absolutely incredible run. Over his last five starts, he is 5-0 with a 0.00 ERA, having allowed just 28 hits and one walk over 39 innings to go along with 21 strikeouts. The stretch includes two complete game shutouts.
Suddenly, Blackburn finds himself very much in the mix for a spot in the big-league rotation should Slowey or Garza (or Baker or Bonser for that matter) falter.
* The Nationals acquired Levale Speigner from the Twins through the Rule V draft during the offseason. After seeing him post mostly horrible numbers over first few months of the season (his painful victory over Johan Santana and the Twins aside), the Nationals decided that they'd like to send him to the minors. In order to do so, they had to offer Speigner back to the Twins. The Twins accepted, but then sent Speigner back to the Nats just a few days ago in a deal that brought minor-league outfielder Darnell McDonald to the Twins organization.
A 28-year-old career minor-leaguer who is currently spending his sixth season in Triple-A, McDonald is far from a hot prospect. Yet he is a good addition for a Twins organization that is very thin on outfield depth in the minor leagues. He immediately took over the No. 3 spot in the Rochester lineup. After going 2-for-8 with a pair of doubles in his first couple games with the Red Wings, McDonald went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and five RBI in last night's game.
* First-round draft pick Ben Revere has gotten his professional career off to a strong start, batting .360 with five RBI and two stolen bases over his first six games in the Gulf Coast League.
* I received this note via e-mail yesterday and thought I would pass it on to our readers:
* As a final reminder, many Twins fans and bloggers will be meeting at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park tomorrow to watch the Twins/Tigers game at 2:55 p.m.
Whew. Have a good weekend!
Silva's overall line (7 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K) was not good, but it was very encouraging to see him settle in and shut down the Blue Jays after a rough start, and it was even more encouraging to see the Twins provide him with some run support for a second consecutive outing. The Twins have been shut out four times this season with Silva on the mound, and they've scored three or fewer runs behind him on four other occasions. In his last two starts, they've scored a total of 19 runs.
In his first game back in the lineup after missing several games with a bruised lung, Justin Morneau went 0-for-3 with a walk and an RBI groundout. Hunter ripped a two-run home run in the fifth inning to put the Twins ahead. It was his second home run of the game and his 17th of the year. Jason Bartlett had a great day at the plate, reaching base three times and hitting his second home run of the year while also stealing a pair of bases. He is now 15-for-15 on the year on stolen base attempts.
And now, a Friday smorgasbord of other notes on the Twins and their minor-league affiliates:
* The Twins recalled Matt Garza from Triple-A yesterday, sending down third-string catcher Chris Heintz to make room on the roster. Garza will start one of the games of the Twins' double-header against the White Sox a week from today, and he'll pitch out of the bullpen up until that point.
Garza has had an up-and-down year in Rochester. He's posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, numbers that are solid but not spectacular. He has struck out 95 batters in 92 innings, but he has frequently struggled with his control, issuing 31 walks over that span after handing out just 32 free passes in 135 2/3 minor league innings last year. Hopefully he can work with Rick Anderson to refine his command at the major-league level, as a lack of control was one of his biggest problems once he reached the big leagues last year.
It's unclear what will happen with Garza after he pitches next Friday. Silva and Bonser have posted solid numbers overall, and Baker is coming off a fantastic outing on Tuesday night that he'll be looking to build on. Kevin Slowey has really struggled to keep the ball in the park, so I suppose that if Garza comes up and pitches well it could be Slowey who heads back to Rochester.
* Joe Nathan picked up his 15th save yesterday with a 1-2-3 ninth inning that included a pair of strikeouts. While his overall numbers are good, Nathan just hasn't been his usual lights-out self this year. He's converted 15 of his 17 save opportunities with a 2.36 ERA, but it's disappointing to see him allowing a .267 opposing batting average after keeping that number below .200 in each of the past five seasons. In 34 1/3 innings this year, Nathan has allowed nine earned runs and 35 hits while striking out 39. In 68 1/3 innings last year, he allowed 12 earned runs and 38 hits while striking out 95.
* Joe Mauer went 0-for-4 in last night's game and 3-for-18 in the four-game series against the Blue Jays. After batting .452 last June, Mauer has batted just .237 this June and has watched his average drop from .353 to .303.
* While Garza was the one to get the call-up, there's another starter pitching for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate who is raising some eyebrows. Nick Blackburn entered last night's game without having allowed an earned run in his last 34 1/3 innings. After tossing seven scoreless frames against the Durham Bulls in a 12-0 Red Wings victory last night, Blackburn has run that streak to 41 1/3 innings. He now holds a 1.57 ERA.
Blackburn is definitely a prospect worth getting to know at this point. He started the season in Double-A, where he went 3-1 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 38 innings. Being that the right-handed Blackburn is 25 and has a big frame at 6'4", 230 lbs, the Twins wanted to see what he could do at the next level so they promoted him to Rochester. After coming out of the gates with a 4.99 ERA over his first three starts in Triple-A, Blackburn has put together an absolutely incredible run. Over his last five starts, he is 5-0 with a 0.00 ERA, having allowed just 28 hits and one walk over 39 innings to go along with 21 strikeouts. The stretch includes two complete game shutouts.
Suddenly, Blackburn finds himself very much in the mix for a spot in the big-league rotation should Slowey or Garza (or Baker or Bonser for that matter) falter.
* The Nationals acquired Levale Speigner from the Twins through the Rule V draft during the offseason. After seeing him post mostly horrible numbers over first few months of the season (his painful victory over Johan Santana and the Twins aside), the Nationals decided that they'd like to send him to the minors. In order to do so, they had to offer Speigner back to the Twins. The Twins accepted, but then sent Speigner back to the Nats just a few days ago in a deal that brought minor-league outfielder Darnell McDonald to the Twins organization.
A 28-year-old career minor-leaguer who is currently spending his sixth season in Triple-A, McDonald is far from a hot prospect. Yet he is a good addition for a Twins organization that is very thin on outfield depth in the minor leagues. He immediately took over the No. 3 spot in the Rochester lineup. After going 2-for-8 with a pair of doubles in his first couple games with the Red Wings, McDonald went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and five RBI in last night's game.
* First-round draft pick Ben Revere has gotten his professional career off to a strong start, batting .360 with five RBI and two stolen bases over his first six games in the Gulf Coast League.
* I received this note via e-mail yesterday and thought I would pass it on to our readers:
Nick,* Yesterday's victory was a much-needed one for the Twins, as they are about to embark on an extremely difficult nine-game road trip. Tonight, they begin a three-game series in Detroit against the first-place Tigers. The Twins will have a very tough time scoring runs this weekend, as they take on three young studs in Justin Verlander, Andrew Miller and Jeremy Bonderman. After Detroit, the Twins head straight to New York for a three-game set against the Yankees, and then finish their pre-All-Star schedule in Chicago with three games against the White Sox. The Yankees and White Sox may not be playing their best ball this season, but it would be foolhardy to think that either series will be easy.
Thought this might be of interest to your Nick & Nick's Twins blog readers: Lutheran Social Service of MN is partnering with the Minnesota Twins to raise funds for our homeless youth services, and one of the ways we're raising dollars is by auctioning the opportunity to throw out the Ceremonial First Pitch before the July 13 Twins-A's game, which happens to be "LSS Night at the Twins." The auction is now on EBay, and will continue through July 7. Fans can also buy tickets for this game through LSS, and part of the proceeds goes to homeless youth services - http://www.lssmn.org/twins for more info.
Here is a link to the first-pitch auction.
Or they can do a search on EBay for "Ceremonial First Pitch."
Thanks,
Jay Kelly
* As a final reminder, many Twins fans and bloggers will be meeting at Park Tavern in St. Louis Park tomorrow to watch the Twins/Tigers game at 2:55 p.m.
Whew. Have a good weekend!
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Winner By Default
Much to no one's surprise, the Twins re-assigned Matt Garza to minor-league camp yesterday, assuring Carlos Silva the fifth spot in the rotation to start the season. Garza pitched well this spring, posting a 1.50 ERA while allowing nine hits, walking five and striking out seven over 12 innings. Silva was of course horrible, posting an 11.02 ERA while allowing more than two base-runners per inning.
I feel bad for Garza. He came into this spring with the mindset that a spot in the rotation was his, and he wasn't going to do anything to lose it. And really, he didn't do anything to lose it. He pitched well. Of course, the Twins didn't really give him much of a chance to prove he belonged. He started only one game (Silva will make his fifth start tonight) and never pitched more than three innings in an outing.
As much as this move frustrates me, I can see how it is at least somewhat defensible. The fifth starter for the Twins will probably only make three starts in April, and Garza needs regular action early in the season. Furthermore, if the Twins had gone with Garza only to have him struggle badly or run into an injury, they would lack options to replace him since Silva would be gone and Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins probably need a little more time in the minors.
I realize I'm toting the company line here. Don't get me wrong, I think you need to go with the guy that gives you the best chance to win, and without question that would appear to be Garza. All I'm saying is that this probably isn't the worst thing in the world, assuming the Twins don't handle the situation the way they handled the Castro/Bartlett debacle last year. If we reach the end of April and Silva is getting shelled while Garza is tearing up Triple-A, and the Twins do nothing, I'll be furious. But every indication is that Silva's leash is fairly short at this point. It seems that Ron Gardenhire has backed off from heaping the absurd praise on Silva that he's given him in the past and that he gave Castro early last season. Gardy has said that if Silva continues to struggle, the team will "make an adjustment." Hopefully that's the case
As it stands though, the Twins will apparently open the season with a potentially disastrous rotation. Behind Johan Santana, we'll be watching Boof Bonser, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Silva. I'm hoping the latter three can find a way to recapture the form they showed earlier in their careers. Even more, I'm hoping that if they can't, the Twins will not stand idly by and watch their 2007 season go to waste.
I feel bad for Garza. He came into this spring with the mindset that a spot in the rotation was his, and he wasn't going to do anything to lose it. And really, he didn't do anything to lose it. He pitched well. Of course, the Twins didn't really give him much of a chance to prove he belonged. He started only one game (Silva will make his fifth start tonight) and never pitched more than three innings in an outing.
As much as this move frustrates me, I can see how it is at least somewhat defensible. The fifth starter for the Twins will probably only make three starts in April, and Garza needs regular action early in the season. Furthermore, if the Twins had gone with Garza only to have him struggle badly or run into an injury, they would lack options to replace him since Silva would be gone and Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins probably need a little more time in the minors.
I realize I'm toting the company line here. Don't get me wrong, I think you need to go with the guy that gives you the best chance to win, and without question that would appear to be Garza. All I'm saying is that this probably isn't the worst thing in the world, assuming the Twins don't handle the situation the way they handled the Castro/Bartlett debacle last year. If we reach the end of April and Silva is getting shelled while Garza is tearing up Triple-A, and the Twins do nothing, I'll be furious. But every indication is that Silva's leash is fairly short at this point. It seems that Ron Gardenhire has backed off from heaping the absurd praise on Silva that he's given him in the past and that he gave Castro early last season. Gardy has said that if Silva continues to struggle, the team will "make an adjustment." Hopefully that's the case
As it stands though, the Twins will apparently open the season with a potentially disastrous rotation. Behind Johan Santana, we'll be watching Boof Bonser, Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson and Silva. I'm hoping the latter three can find a way to recapture the form they showed earlier in their careers. Even more, I'm hoping that if they can't, the Twins will not stand idly by and watch their 2007 season go to waste.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Garza and the Fifth Spot
As much as I'd love to post on the last night's first game of Spring Training, a 4-4 tie with the Red Sox, there is little we can draw from one game. All I can say is that it's nice to see Joe Mauer smack a home run and Scott Baker just seems to keep going down the wrong path. The more interesting story comes with Matt Garza.
Garza pitched two scoreless innings yesterday and struck out David Ortiz on a nasty breaking pitch, perhaps backing up some statements he made earlier this week. In a Pioneer Press story, Garza was quoted as saying, "It's my job, and I'm not going to give it back... I have no — no — doubt in my mind that I'm staying here."
Apparently, Garza sees the job not only as his, but he sees Sidney Ponson's recent visa issues as an opportunity to grab the spot. As Garza says, "It's a shot for me ... and I'm going to take it and run with it just like I did last year. I'm going to get a spot. I'm going to give them one of the toughest decisions they've ever had to make in their life." So, does Garza have a chance?
Well, as most Twins fans have heard, Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire aren't exactly happy with Ponson's situation. For a guy who is supposed to be very excited for a second shot, he isn't trying hard by failing to get a visa and having an occasional "glass of wine" when he has a record of alcohol-related issues. If Ponson isn't serious about getting the job, Garza sure is.
Gardenhire says that, "Whether he sticks with us or not (out of camp), that's going to be determined on the field." It would seem that Garza has at least a good shot at getting the job and that's probably good news for the Twins.
The combination of Ponson and Ramon Ortiz was never exactly an exciting prospect for the Twins 2007 season. And if Ponson doesn't care to take his opportunity seriously, there is no reason Garza shouldn't get the shot. He's talented, motivated, and apparently ready to go.
Garza pitched two scoreless innings yesterday and struck out David Ortiz on a nasty breaking pitch, perhaps backing up some statements he made earlier this week. In a Pioneer Press story, Garza was quoted as saying, "It's my job, and I'm not going to give it back... I have no — no — doubt in my mind that I'm staying here."
Apparently, Garza sees the job not only as his, but he sees Sidney Ponson's recent visa issues as an opportunity to grab the spot. As Garza says, "It's a shot for me ... and I'm going to take it and run with it just like I did last year. I'm going to get a spot. I'm going to give them one of the toughest decisions they've ever had to make in their life." So, does Garza have a chance?
Well, as most Twins fans have heard, Terry Ryan and Ron Gardenhire aren't exactly happy with Ponson's situation. For a guy who is supposed to be very excited for a second shot, he isn't trying hard by failing to get a visa and having an occasional "glass of wine" when he has a record of alcohol-related issues. If Ponson isn't serious about getting the job, Garza sure is.
Gardenhire says that, "Whether he sticks with us or not (out of camp), that's going to be determined on the field." It would seem that Garza has at least a good shot at getting the job and that's probably good news for the Twins.
The combination of Ponson and Ramon Ortiz was never exactly an exciting prospect for the Twins 2007 season. And if Ponson doesn't care to take his opportunity seriously, there is no reason Garza shouldn't get the shot. He's talented, motivated, and apparently ready to go.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Can Garza Make the Jump?
As players start to arrive in Ft. Myers and spring training starts to kick into gear, the Twins' uncertain rotation picture has been the focus of much attention from fans and writers. Specifically, a lot of attention has centered around Sidney Ponson, or Sir Sid, as La Velle E. Neal has referred to him. However, there's a different pitcher I'll be following most closely this spring, and that's Matt Garza.
While Ponson and Ramon Ortiz have a chance to improve on their horrible 2006 campaigns and contribute to the back end of the Twins' rotation, Garza could be the wild-card in whether or not the Twins can realistically compete for another division title. If Garza makes a jump this year and starts to pitch the way his minor-league numbers suggest he can, he could team up with Johan Santana and possibly Boof Bonser to elevate the Twins' rotation to elite status. So now the question becomes one of whether the Twins should continue to push Garza or back off and let him develop more in the minor leagues.
When it comes to highly touted college pitchers being pushed aggressively through the minors and debuting in the majors at a young age, we don't have to look far into the past to find a couple relevant examples (one of which hits painfully close to home). Like Garza, both these pitchers struggled in their initial stint in the big leagues, but after that point the two careers took completely opposite paths. So here's a look at the proverbial worst-case and best-case scenarios that we can look for with Garza.
Back in 2000, the Twins used their No. 2 overall pick in the draft to select Adam Johnson out of Cal State University-Fullerton. It was the last in a string of three straight horrendous first-round busts for the Twins (Ryan Mills at No. 6 overall in '98, B.J. Garbe at No. 5 overall in '99), a slump that thankfully ended in 2001 with the selection of Joe Mauer. Johnson signed and played half a season at Ft. Myers in 2000, posting a 2.47 ERA and 92/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 starts there. The next year, a good performance in Double-A pushed Johnson to the majors, where he made his debut against the Cardinals on July 16 (just over a year after being drafted). Johnson pitched alright in the game, earning a no-decision by going six innings and allowing three earned runs (on two homers) while striking out five and walking one. From that point on, however, things went downhill badly for Johnson. He gave up 13 earned runs over 14 innings in his next three starts and was banished to the bullpen. Johnson finished that season with an 8.28 ERA and 17/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 major-league innings.
He started the next season back at the Triple-A level, but he was horrible there, posting a 5.47 ERA over 151.1 IP while seeing a huge drop in a his strikeout rate and a huge jump in his rate of home runs allowed. Johnson performed poorly again in Triple-A in 2003, and was disastrous during a September call-up to the majors that year, allowing eight hits and seven earned runs while recording just four outs over a span of two appearances. That was the last time Johnson saw action the major leagues, and since then he has floated around between several minor league organizations, pitching poorly at almost each stop.
Now, I'm not saying that there is much likelihood of Garza suffering a similar fate. The two aren't necessarily very good comps because, unlike Garza, Johnson never really dominated the competition in the high minors. Still, the example provides some food for thought. Was Johnson really destined to be such a horrible pitcher, or did the Twins wreck his confidence by rushing him to the majors too quickly and not allowing him to develop his pitches in the minor leagues?
For a much more encouraging comparison (and one that seems a lot more plausible), we need look no further than last season's American League Rookie of the Year.
The Tigers drafted Justin Verlander out of Old Dominion University with the second overall pick in the 2004 draft. It took them several months to get him signed, so he wasn't able to start his pro career until 2005, but once he did there was no looking back. Verlander absolutely decimated minor-league hitters, going 9-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 104/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 86 innings at the Single-A level. He was then promoted to Double-A where he allowed just 11 hits and one run over 32 2/3 innings, and by the end of his first season in pro baseball he found himself in the major leagues pitching for the Tigers. In 11 1/3 innings during his September call-up, Verlander struggled a bit, posting a 7.15 ERA while striking out seven and walking five.
Last season, Verlander started the season with the Tigers and pitched very well, going 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 124/60 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 186 innings. He helped carry the Tigers to an American League pennant, and earned Rookie of the Year honors. So can Garza find similar results in his second shot at the majors?
Garza's situation coming into this season is comparable to Verlander's entering last season, and it's very possible that he could make a similar jump. Baseball Savant has even opined that Garza could be just as good this year as Verlander was last year. Personally, I believe Garza might need to start the season in Triple-A so he can work on developing his off-speed stuff in order to reduce his reliance on the fastball. That said, if he looks ready to go in spring training I doubt the Twins will hesitate to hand him the fifth spot in the rotation. If he can come on strong while Bonser and Carlos Silva hold their own, the Twins should have a great shot at making the playoffs.
While Ponson and Ramon Ortiz have a chance to improve on their horrible 2006 campaigns and contribute to the back end of the Twins' rotation, Garza could be the wild-card in whether or not the Twins can realistically compete for another division title. If Garza makes a jump this year and starts to pitch the way his minor-league numbers suggest he can, he could team up with Johan Santana and possibly Boof Bonser to elevate the Twins' rotation to elite status. So now the question becomes one of whether the Twins should continue to push Garza or back off and let him develop more in the minor leagues.
When it comes to highly touted college pitchers being pushed aggressively through the minors and debuting in the majors at a young age, we don't have to look far into the past to find a couple relevant examples (one of which hits painfully close to home). Like Garza, both these pitchers struggled in their initial stint in the big leagues, but after that point the two careers took completely opposite paths. So here's a look at the proverbial worst-case and best-case scenarios that we can look for with Garza.
Back in 2000, the Twins used their No. 2 overall pick in the draft to select Adam Johnson out of Cal State University-Fullerton. It was the last in a string of three straight horrendous first-round busts for the Twins (Ryan Mills at No. 6 overall in '98, B.J. Garbe at No. 5 overall in '99), a slump that thankfully ended in 2001 with the selection of Joe Mauer. Johnson signed and played half a season at Ft. Myers in 2000, posting a 2.47 ERA and 92/20 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 starts there. The next year, a good performance in Double-A pushed Johnson to the majors, where he made his debut against the Cardinals on July 16 (just over a year after being drafted). Johnson pitched alright in the game, earning a no-decision by going six innings and allowing three earned runs (on two homers) while striking out five and walking one. From that point on, however, things went downhill badly for Johnson. He gave up 13 earned runs over 14 innings in his next three starts and was banished to the bullpen. Johnson finished that season with an 8.28 ERA and 17/13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 25 major-league innings.
He started the next season back at the Triple-A level, but he was horrible there, posting a 5.47 ERA over 151.1 IP while seeing a huge drop in a his strikeout rate and a huge jump in his rate of home runs allowed. Johnson performed poorly again in Triple-A in 2003, and was disastrous during a September call-up to the majors that year, allowing eight hits and seven earned runs while recording just four outs over a span of two appearances. That was the last time Johnson saw action the major leagues, and since then he has floated around between several minor league organizations, pitching poorly at almost each stop.
Now, I'm not saying that there is much likelihood of Garza suffering a similar fate. The two aren't necessarily very good comps because, unlike Garza, Johnson never really dominated the competition in the high minors. Still, the example provides some food for thought. Was Johnson really destined to be such a horrible pitcher, or did the Twins wreck his confidence by rushing him to the majors too quickly and not allowing him to develop his pitches in the minor leagues?
For a much more encouraging comparison (and one that seems a lot more plausible), we need look no further than last season's American League Rookie of the Year.
The Tigers drafted Justin Verlander out of Old Dominion University with the second overall pick in the 2004 draft. It took them several months to get him signed, so he wasn't able to start his pro career until 2005, but once he did there was no looking back. Verlander absolutely decimated minor-league hitters, going 9-2 with a 1.67 ERA and 104/19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 86 innings at the Single-A level. He was then promoted to Double-A where he allowed just 11 hits and one run over 32 2/3 innings, and by the end of his first season in pro baseball he found himself in the major leagues pitching for the Tigers. In 11 1/3 innings during his September call-up, Verlander struggled a bit, posting a 7.15 ERA while striking out seven and walking five.
Last season, Verlander started the season with the Tigers and pitched very well, going 17-9 with a 3.63 ERA and 124/60 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 186 innings. He helped carry the Tigers to an American League pennant, and earned Rookie of the Year honors. So can Garza find similar results in his second shot at the majors?
Garza's situation coming into this season is comparable to Verlander's entering last season, and it's very possible that he could make a similar jump. Baseball Savant has even opined that Garza could be just as good this year as Verlander was last year. Personally, I believe Garza might need to start the season in Triple-A so he can work on developing his off-speed stuff in order to reduce his reliance on the fastball. That said, if he looks ready to go in spring training I doubt the Twins will hesitate to hand him the fifth spot in the rotation. If he can come on strong while Bonser and Carlos Silva hold their own, the Twins should have a great shot at making the playoffs.
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