Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Pitching Through Pain

That sound you heard on Monday? That was the collective groan from Twins fans everywhere around the time Joe Christensen posted a blog entry stating that the club has expressed interest in retaining embattled reliever Matt Capps.

The information comes from Capps' agent, Paul Kinzer, and his job is to create a market for his client so it wouldn't be surprising if he is overstating Terry Ryan's interest. Nevertheless, as Seth pointed out yesterday, the Twins wouldn't be crazy to bring Capps back -- in a reduced role and at a palatable price.

Kinzer told Christensen that he expects Capps to get a job closing somewhere, but given the number of established closers in free agency and the number of teams that actually need a ninth-inning guy, this seems like wishful thinking. More likely, Capps will have to settle for a setup job at about half the $7.15 million salary he earned this year. Therefore, I'm not irked by the notion that Ryan would consider reaching out.

I am, however, irked by another tidbit I came across. In pointing out the right-hander's struggles, Christensen mentions that "the Twins appreciated the way Capps kept taking the ball, even when he was dealing with some right wrist tendinitis."

Looking at Capps' 2011 season, it's not difficult to pinpoint the time frame where this ailment may have been affecting him. He's never been a huge strikeout artist, but from June 28th to August 18th he managed only three strikeouts while facing 84 batters. That's a 4 percent K-rate, which makes Nick Blackburn look like Nolan Ryan. During that span, opponents hit .320/.381/.480 against Capps, saddling him with a 5.79 ERA and three blown saves.

Outside of that mid-summer window, though, Capps struck out 16 percent of the batters he faced in 2011, which is right in line with his 18 percent career rate. In combination with his always excellent control, that kind of moderate strikeout proficiency can make Capps a successful late-inning reliever, and certainly has before.

Depending on the terms, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if the Twins were to bring back Capps for another season. But they'll be a lot better off in 2012 if he and the rest of his teammates swallow their pride and sit out when they're dealing with inhibiting injuries.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't hate the thought of having Capps back because if you look at his history he's been up and down from year to year which means he's due for another good year, and he's still only 28. I don't think he's worth $3.5M though and this BP still needs more depth. I think the key move now is to get a starter who can give them 200+ quality innings.

weight watchers said...

do we have to pay Capps and Mijares by the pound?

What's the Twins motto for 2012? "Fat Guys are Us?"

TT said...

I think the idea that players are going to sit out every time they have some pain is unrealistic. These guys are playing almost every day for 162 games. They are going to have to play with minor aches and injuries. Yes, that will effect their performance, but that is part of the game.

Ed Bast said...

For once I agree with TT. Part of being a professional athlete is learning to play with pain. Playing 150+ games every summer means you're really never going to be 100% healthy. Great players learn this and learn to adjust. Some (ahem, Mr. Mauer) don't.

Nick, you seem to think that anytime a player has even a minor injury he should sit because he's not going to perform his best and therefore it hurts the team. You fail to acknowledge the tradeoff: someone else needs to fill in. Joe Mauer with gangrene in his legs, a broken arm, and the bird flu is still better than a completely healthy Drew Butera. Likewise Matt "Here's A Straight Fastball Down the Pipe" Capps at 80% is still better than Dusty Hughes or Phil Dumatrait (gosh, our bullpen last year was awful).

Playing through incidental pain - particularly given the spectacular number of days spent on the DL in '11 - should be celebrated, not criticized.

Anonymous said...

There should be a line somewhere between playing with pain and making it worse. I don't want guys taking constant days off but I don't want Blackburn hiding an arm injury for a month (summer 2010) before getting it fixed either.

Nick N. said...

I think the idea that players are going to sit out every time they have some pain is unrealistic.

That's not what I said. Playing through some amount of pain is fine, and it's something that most players do throughout the season. But the idea that a player is doing his team a favor by pushing through an injury that is clearly taking a significant toll on his performance is simply false.

Capps would have been doing the Twins a much greater service by sitting and letting the wrist heal than going out and repeatedly turning in ugly relief outings. Much like Mauer shouldn't have forced himself back in April and Span shouldn't have forced himself back early from his concussion.

Shane Wahl said...

"I think the idea that players are going to sit out every time they have some pain is unrealistic."

Oh my lord what a straw man distortion of what the post was about! TT, you might make a good politician with those kinds of "argumentative skills."

Ed Bast said...

"Capps would have been doing the Twins a much greater service by sitting and letting the wrist heal than going out and repeatedly turning in ugly relief outings."

He would've done the Twins a service by forcing Dusty Hughes or someone equally terrible to turn in even uglier relief outings? Not sure I follow.

"...pushing through an injury that is clearly taking a significant toll on his performance..."

By this token, should players remove themselves from the lineup when they're going through a significant slump? Obviously something mental must be taking a toll on their performance.

Josh said...

$3-$3.5M for Capps is too much. If he gets that kind of offer from someone else (probably because he's an "experienced closer") then the Twins should let him go. Even a bounce back to previous form makes that much an iffy bet, and he's just not the kind of power arm the Twins need for the back of the bullpen. That price is way too high for a middle relief kind of guy (which I think Capps probably is), especially when the Twins really do have any number of low cost options from their minor league system to plug into those lower leverage roles.

Spend the money on a live arm. There are always options at relatively low-cost for bullpen help if you're willing to go get them, and/or take some risk. The Twins have preferred to over-spend on a "closer" and it failed badly in 2011. $18.3M for 109.2 IP is just not good money management.

Shane Wahl said...

The Twins could like get two of the following for the same price as Capps: Todd Coffey, Michael Wuertz, and LaTroy Hawkins. Or they could get Octavio Dotel for the same price as Capps. Only if these pitchers and maybe half a dozen or so more are signed elsewhere should the Twins get serious about bringing him back at $3.5 million plus (it's likely they wouldn't have to go that high at that point, I suppose).

Anonymous said...

since Shortstop is covered what about 2nd, would yniesky betancourt be a good choice?

Anonymous said...

Why do we need out of shape fat guys in our bullpen?

Sol Rosenberg said...

How many players missed time last year? Swallow their pride? Almost shit myself reading that. I had to read it twice to confirm it wasn't facetious.

USAFChief said...

But they'll be a lot better off in 2012 if he and the rest of his teammates swallow their pride and sit out when they're dealing with inhibiting injuries.

Personally, I think they'll be a lot better off if they learn to differentiate between "not 100%" and having an "inhibiting injury." They need to get their arse out on the field more, rather than less.

Some "wrist tendonitis" is not an "inhibiting injury" for a pitcher. If it were, 100 innings a year would be a milestone.

Capps might have sucked, but I give him credit for staying on the field. I also think it's pretty convenient to take one snippet from a blog and correlate that to the exact time--down to the day--when Capps sucked the worst.

I think they call that "selective endpoints" over on the sabre blogs, don't they?

Nick N. said...

I think they call that "selective endpoints" over on the sabre blogs, don't they?

Selective endpoints, sure. But his lack of strikeouts during that span is startling. This is a guy who has very consistently averaged between 6-8 strikeouts per nine innings in his career, and over a two-month span he averages 1.4? You just can't be an effective late-inning reliever when you can't throw the ball past anybody.

Go ahead and give him credit for taking the field while he clearly wasn't capable of doing his job effectively, but frankly I don't think we should hope for anyone to follow the example he was setting. Playing like crap through injuries serves no benefit other than satisfying the "tough guy" standard that you and others seem to hold for whatever reason.

Ed Bast said...

"Playing like crap through injuries serves no benefit other than satisfying the "tough guy" standard that you and others seem to hold for whatever reason."

You're really, truly going to use a few weeks worth (sample size?) of Matt Capps being terrible (ha!)to prove that no player not quite injured enough to physically prevent him from performing his job but injured enough to have some impact on his statistics should ever play?

Are you going to address my points that playing with moderate pain a) is part of being a professional athlete; b) prevents a crappier player from playing?

You don't think Matt F-ing Capps is capable of a few weeks of being especially terrible, "injured" or not?

It's astounding that you would watch the 2011 Twins suffer so many soft injuries resulting in extended playing time for the likes of Alex Burnett, Jim Hooey, Rene Rivera, Steve Holm, Brian Dinkelman, on and on, leading to a 99-loss season, and come to the conclusion that MORE PLAYERS SHOULD HAVE SAT OUT.

This is the equivalent of suggesting a regular ol' Joe should stay home from the office every time he has a cold, headache, or is tired, because it negatively affects his performance. That would be sweet. Unfortunately, in the real world, this concept is laughable.

The Twins need less coddling, not more.

Nick N. said...

You're really, truly going to use a few weeks worth (sample size?) of Matt Capps being terrible (ha!)to prove that no player not quite injured enough to physically prevent him from performing his job but injured enough to have some impact on his statistics should ever play?

There are plenty of other examples. Mauer pushed himself to get back on the field in March and April when he clearly shouldn't have, and as a result he posted a .554 OPS in 9 games before landing on the disabled list for two months. Who knows how differently things may have played out had he simply let his body heal instead of trying to tough it out.

Span tried to play through concussion symptoms in August and managed two hits in 35 at-bats. Pretty sure any of his back-ups could have mustered that.

Casilla rushed himself back from a hamstring injury, aggravated it in his first game and missed the rest of the season. Cuddyer played the next day after getting hit in the wrist, then wound up missing a week.

What you don't seem to understand is that in many cases, being the "tough guy" and playing through an injury only puts you at increased risk for further damage, and in most cases the pay-off is not worth it, even when the back-ups are uninspiring.

What I'm talking about here is not a matter of pain tolerance. If a guy is sore or has a sprain that won't seriously impede his performance or risk aggravation, then by all means, get out there. I don't think this is an issue for most professional ball players -- certainly not for someone like Mauer, who has put in an awful lot of time at the game's most punishing position.

But players pushing themselves to get on the field when they shouldn't have been out there was a big problem with the 2011 team. Capps is just another example.

Ed Bast said...

Come on, we can all cherry-pick examples and randomly correlate statistics and injuries. Oh, I don't know, Albert Pujols "rushed back" from his wrist injury and led his team to a World Series. Kirk Gibson's limp-off home run. Curt Schilling's bloody sock.

How about Delmon Young sitting out two weeks because, hey, if everyone is sitting out with minor injuries, why can't I? How about Kevin Slowey taking so much time off that when he finally decides to pitch again he's so rusty he's one of the worst pitchers in the league?

You call it "tough guy" (since when is toughness in an athlete a negative, by the way?). I call it "professional athlete". We don't need to put these guys on a pedestal. They aren't so special and delicate that at the first signs of a sore wrist you shut 'em down. They get paid to play, so play.

Do you really think Capps thought: Well, this wrist is going to make me perform terribly, but I don't care, I'm going to be a "tough guy," screw the team?

Jenny Craig said...

Capps needs counseling. He is only 26 and 40 pounds overweight.

Slow body, slow fastball.

Shane Wahl said...

I cannot believe some of these comments.

"During that span, opponents hit .320/.381/.480 against Capps, saddling him with a 5.79 ERA and three blown saves."

So some of you are saying that if Capps didn't go out there hurt and clearly nowhere near 100%, the Twins would be compelled to pitch someone else who was *worse* than the above stat line?

There is a strange, stupid, and hyper-macho attitude towards the Cuddyer, Capps, etc. about "being tough" . . . even though they sucked while "being tough." Sucking is detrimental to the team, the last time I checked.

Ed Bast said...

Shane, first of all, Nick picked those dates purely at random to support his argument. Nowhere has Capps or anyone talked about the specific dates he was feeling sore. Nick conveniently picked a timeframe where Capps' stats were the worst and speculated that this was when he must have been hurt. It does not "prove" anything, it's pure speculation.

Second, are you aware of some of the characters the Twins were trotting out of the pen last year? Jim Hoey put up a 5+ ERA with a WHIP of 1.90 last year, is he who you would've liked to see take Capps' spot? Dusty Hughes? Alex Burnett? Jose Mijares? Who?

It continues to astound me that people can look at a season where the Twins had so many players sitting out that they had to call up half of their AAA team en route to a 99-loss season and come to the conclusion that more guys needed to sit out. It's absolutely baffling.

Anonymous said...

Nick, I think one of your problems is looking too much at stats over a small time frame. From the Twins perspective, Capps got the job done during this time period, even though he was playing hurt. In those 24 appearances, he inherited 11 runners and only let one score (a sac fly with bases loaded, which also got him credited with a blown save but he got a win). I'd say he had 5 bad outings that hurt the Twins (7/2, 7/18, 8/8, 8/9, 8/18) and 19 good enough appearances. It wasn't always pretty, of course, but I would imagine the Twins were happy with the end results. Especially if they knew he wasn't 100%.

Nick N. said...

From the Twins perspective, Capps got the job done during this time period, even though he was playing hurt.

From any perspective, striking out three batters in a seven-week span is not getting the job done for a late-inning reliever.

It continues to astound me that people can look at a season where the Twins had so many players sitting out that they had to call up half of their AAA team en route to a 99-loss season and come to the conclusion that more guys needed to sit out.

Has it occurred to you that some of these players (such as Mauer and Casilla) may have missed less time overall if they had not worsened injuries by trying to play through them?

We don't need to put these guys on a pedestal. They aren't so special and delicate that at the first signs of a sore wrist you shut 'em down.

Statements like this lead me to believe you're either missing the point or being willfully ignorant.

Anonymous said...

Nick, 3 strike outs mean nothing. Strike out rates can predict success (or failure) going forward but as outs, they don't mean much, esp one inning at a time. Not sure why you are missing this point. If the Twins knew his krate was down due to his wrist, they'd also likely not be as worried about his lowered krate until/unless it started affecting the outcome of games. 24 times he played with that hurt wrist and 19 times his results wouldn't have upset the Twins.

Teams, and especially the Twins, don't particularly care how things get done, so long as they get done. From the Twins view, Capps playing through pain didn't affect the Twins in a negative way. And since the Twins knew that the Capps that was putting up the crappy strike out numbers wasn't the real Capps, they weren't overly worried about only 3 strike outs as they were happy that they had at least one of their arms available.

Ed Bast said...

Nick, willfully ignorant would be like using a reliever's ERA over a 25-inning sample to prove a point. Or ignoring the fact that over that stretch Capps allowed one inherited run to score, as Anon points out. Or claiming that the only measure of effectiveness for a reliever is strikeout rate.

Or having a contrarian theory about something, and then using randomly selective statistics to prove your point while ignoring those that don't support your cause, and then passing it off as fact, rather than using statistics to objectively analyze a situation from which you can derive a theory, as statistics are by definition meant to do.

In fact, I'd call that flat-out irresponsible.

But hey, it's your credibility, not mine.

Anonymous said...

Well said, Ed.

Ed Bast said...

Here's how easy it is to play the cherry-pick game:

My theory: Alexi Casilla took steroids. Looking back on his career, it's easy to see when he took steroids. From Aug 23 - Sept 18, 2008, Casilla hit 3 HR in 87 at bats, for a rate of 1 HR per 29 ABs. For his career, Casilla consistently hits HRs at 1 HR per 128 ABs. Thus, Casilla was positively affected by steroid use during that time.

See how easy (and preposterous) this is?

Nick N. said...

From the Twins view, Capps playing through pain didn't affect the Twins in a negative way.

It didn't? He was getting booed out of his home park.

Nick, willfully ignorant would be like using a reliever's ERA over a 25-inning sample to prove a point.

First of all, I never claimed to "prove" anything. People can decide for themselves what they want to think, on the basis of this example and the many others I've cited. I made it clear in the article that I was simply speculating.

Or claiming that the only measure of effectiveness for a reliever is strikeout rate.

Which measure would you prefer? He was terrible by basically any parameter during between the months of June and August. I focused on his dreadful K-rate because it strikes me as the clearest sign that something was not right with him, and because it's basically impossible for a late-inning reliever to be effective when he can't throw the ball past anyone.

Ed Bast said...

"He was getting booed out of his home park."

This is the most hilarious statement yet. So, the fans were consistently booing Capps from June 28 to Aug 18? Or did they boo him on a couple of his bad outings, like they also did outside of your magical time frame? Are you suggesting they booed during Capps' many successful outings during that time frame?

This whole point is predicated on the notion that we should use "fans booing" as evidence of any discussion.

"Which measure would you prefer?"

Um, any meaningful one? Strikeouts are great. Unfortunately, they get you the same number of outs as a ground out or a fly out.

I also have to ask, how, pray tell, did Mr. Capps manage to recover from this injury? I thought playing through injuries led to worse and worse injuries...however, after your arbitrary date of Aug 18, Capps managed to make 7 more appearances in August alone, striking out batters at a, you guessed it, 16% rate. Did his "injury" magically heal overnight?

Anonymous said...

Nick, when you are looking at such a small sample size, I think you can look at individual games instead of trying to rationalize ratios.

If a hitter went 5-5 in game 1 of a 4 game ALCS and went 0-10 in the other three, would you say he hit well in the series or would you say he had one great game? Because right now, I think you're stuck looking at too small statistical information and ignoring the actual real life results.

Nick N. said...

I'm baffled that this argument is continuing to drag on. Capps was absolutely terrible for a good portion of the summer. There's no need to parse out stats to back this up. Did either of you actually watch the team this season?

... Oh hey, look, the Twins signed Ryan Doumit! We have real news to discuss so we can stop arguing inanely about BS!

Ed Bast said...

"We have real news to discuss so we can stop arguing inanely about BS!"

We're arguing about your post, though, which you continue to argue for....and your notion that our players should be encouraged to play less is hardly inane, and extremely destructive at worst. If this is your way of admitting your post is "BS", then okay, we can chalk it up to a "slow news day" syndrome.

On another note, your blueprint is looking almost frighteningly clairvoyant...well done sir.

Laches said...

This debate goes back to the cliched but true statement that there's a difference between being injured and being hurt. Playing through injury doesn't do anyone any good because you can't perform well enough to help the team, and you risk aggravating it and landing yourself on an extended stay on the DL when you could have just sat out for a few games and let it heal properly. Playing through everyday aches, pains and soreness is required and expected. You're never going to feel 100% over the course of a 162-game season. It takes it's toll. The problem is that unless you've lost a limb, Twins fans will put you in the "hurt" category and scream about how you should man up and play. And I think Nick has shown examples where guys who were legitimately injured tried to play through it, and in retrospect would have been better off sitting out.

Anonymous said...

Capps is really, really fat.

TT said...

"That's not what I said."

Yes, it is what you said. You used a comment about pitching through "some wrist tendinitis" as a launching point. I think everyone agrees that at some point players are better off healing.

"But his lack of strikeouts during that span is startling. "

I think that is right, but it kind of misses the point. He struck out 1 in every seven batters in Sept/October, similar to his numbers the first half of the season, and batters still hit .300 against him.

Capps problem wasn't just that he wasn't "missing bats", which isn't the only way to strike out batters in any case. When batters made contact they were getting a lot more hits. His BABIP in Sept/Oct was .348, over 100 points higher than his monthly results in April, May, June and August. In July, it was .333.

The larger problem is that statistical averages from extremely limited data are not accurate representation of a reliever's contributions. He may well have had bad days and good days. And on good days he shut the other team down.

Its not clear the Twins would or wouldn't have been better off if Capps sat. Looking at any results is making that decision based on 20-20 hindsight. It ignores the fact that the Twins were still trying to win the division until they were into August. Turning all those games over to Dusty Hughes would have all but guaranteed a lot more losing days with no winners to offset them. Its understandable that the Twins would appreciate Capps taking the ball and pitching through the discomfort.

Mike said...

I think some poster's contrarian natures are really coming out in this thread. I don't know what's so upsetting to some people when a guy suggests that a guy trying to pitch through an injury and doing a very poor job of it maybe would have been better off sitting it out for a while.

For how much hate Capps has received everywhere, including on this blog, for his 2011 performance, the support he's receiving for being awful while pitching through an injury is astounding.

Maybe I'm just biased after watching Morneau be awful while toughing out his assortment of ailments.

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