The non-waiver trade deadline came and went yesterday without the Twins making a single move. The fan base had been on edge with Denard Span's name being thrown around by a lot of reporters, but when push came to shove nothing materialized between the Twins and Nationals.
It sounds like the main sticking point was Washington's unwillingness to include closer Drew Storen, and I'd guess they were at least a little tentative about Span's health. Either way, the Nats likely did the Twins a favor.
It probably says something about the level of faith people have in Bill Smith that the general reaction to a non-move at the deadline is relief rather than disappointment, but that's certainly where I'm at. The Span-for-Storen rumors reeked of another instance where Smith and the front office were undervaluing their own asset while vastly overvaluing the save statistic. (One report from Scott Miller of CBS Sports suggested that the Nats were pushing to include Tyler Clippard -- a reliever who is at least as good as Storen -- and the Twins balked because he's a "setup man.")
I said last week that I felt the Twins should sit tight at the deadline so I'm not upset by the lack of activity. I was pleasantly surprised to see Kevin Slowey stay put. Smith was undoubtedly dangling the right-hander, but didn't get an adequate offer and didn't cave in. For that, I give him credit.
It's time to set this rift aside and let Slowey help the Twins again. He was stellar in a Triple-A start in Rochester on Saturday night and should be starting in the majors. A spot could be created in the rotation by either shifting Brian Duensing to the bullpen (where I continue to believe he'd be a greater asset) or by bumping the struggling Nick Blackburn.
At the very least, Slowey would hopefully be able to build up some value for an offseason trade.
After dropping two of three in Oakland, the Twins enter August in fourth place and seven games back in a weak division. They still hold a faint chance at resuscitating their postseason hopes, and one could quibble with the lack of a move to add some bullpen help, but those kinds of deals can be pulled off in August -- in fact, that's where Smith has made done some of his best work.
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41 comments:
It probably says something about the level of faith people have in Bill Smith that the general reaction to a non-move at the deadline is relief rather than disappointment, but that's certainly where I'm at.
Probably?
I don't understand how the front office could seem to completely forget that Joe Nathan was "just a setup man" when Terry Ryan traded for him with the intent to make him the closer. And, before that, Eddie Guardado was "just a setup man" who became a very effective closer (actually better than he had been in a setup role) for the Twins, as well.
I know those weren't the first cases of a guy making good in the 9th despite a lack of experience in the closer role, too. But Nathan is still the Twins' closer--and only lost the job temporarily when his arm wasn't healthy. If Smith needs to see a proof of concept that Nathan's eventual replacement need not have the closer pedigree, all he has to do is watch his own team.
If Smith would've completed the deal to send a starting center-fielder who is also your team's only real viable lead-off hitter to Washington for another closer, my advice to him would've been to throw himself into the deal and rid us of his stupidity. Why does he act like quality SS and now center-fielders are commodities that can be easily replaced? This team needs starting pitching more than bullpen help. I think it was a big mistake letting the Indians get Ubaldo Jimenez - I would've been willing to include Gibson in a deal to get him because I think true Aces are that difficult to find. Stop trying to trade quality every day players for relief pitchers!!!!
I still fail to comprehend why you believe the starter with the most quality starts (consistent), and second best AGS (effective) would best serve the team in the bull-pen. His FIP and xFIP are similar to his first two years--when he out-performed them, while he is under-performing them this year--while his k/9 rate is up and his swinging strike rate is fairly solid at 8%. Even with his struggles against RH hitters, he faces teams, not individuals and it is the totality of circumstances which indicate effectiveness.
It was interesting that the vast majority of postings on Washington Nationals message boards felt that they would be better off keeping Storen and berating their GM for considering it.
I believe we should have been active sellers and traded away every possible free agent that provided more young talent.
At the end of the year I predict we miss the playoffs, lose a bunch of guys for nothing except draft picks and bemoan the $110M payroll as unfair (which it isn't). At that point we will wish we had a bunch of young prospects that could have been had for Cuddy, Kubel, Nathan ....
On the bright side Freewheelin' Billy didn't find the right relief pitcher to unload good, young, starting-9 talent for. Less encouragingly, we passed up an opportunity to infuse some talent into the old boys club that is this organization. Looks like we'll be stuck with Mother Gardy and his Flock of Lambs for this year and the next at least.
But hey, maybe we can "improve the team" by resigning Thome, Cuddy, Kubel and extending Pavano this offseason!
Pavano would've been a good one to move at the deadline - but clearly there was little or no market for his services. What does that tell you about him?? I could see him, Kubel, and/or Cuddy moving before the end of August.
Im surprised there isn't a higher level of distaste for Smith's lack of activity through this deadline. While I am thrilled that both Span and Slowey were retained for the time being, it can be categorized as nother other than a critical mistake in not moving either Cuddy or Kubel (or both), especially especially with #5's trade value being the highest possible for him. It will be near impossible to have them clear waivers; thus we are most likely going to be faced with either resigning or losing these players with minimal returns on a situation that could have easily been used to re-stock the currently depleted farm system. I have to say, I really hope Smith's future has been at least recently evaluated with this organization. The man is running this club into the ground.
Cuddyer's trade value is about as high as it will get, but unless the return is really good, it might not have been worth the P.R. hit the Twins would take.
"Im surprised there isn't a higher level of distaste for Smith's lack of activity through this deadline."
That's fans are conditioned to value "nice guys" above serious contention. Sure, we passed up an opportunity to add talent to the organization and really gear up for a 2012 run. But at least we didn't have to break any bad news to that huggable Mikey Cuddyer!
I get the feeling that the Twins FO doesn't see the team as having a legit shot at making the postseason, and thus didn't want to overpay in prospects to buy. A relief pitcher would help the bullpen, but at this point would it increase an already slim lead?
Maybe if they could get a long-term answer for the bullpen, but it sounds like of the options out there the only one they had was Storen/Clippard and that of course would've required Span.
In the long run, no-trade is better than a bad trade or one made for the sake of doing something. But if they're gonna take that slim chance and go for it w/ what they have, they'd better be planning on retaining at least a few of the impending FAs they didn't try and move (Nathan, Capps, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, etc)
I think we should have went after a good short stop who can play defense and at least hit the ball past the infield. Send Nishioka back to Japan.
On the pitching moves, I would dump Pavano on waivers (even if you don't get much in return, it is 8 million saved for next year) and call up Slowey. I know some people will have to swallow some pride, but that would make the team better. And another one that also it is a pride swallowing move is to send Nishi down instead of Hughes. I don't know who could play SS until Casilla is back, but Nishi is really overmatched right now (even Bert said it in the game yesterday).
"I don't understand how the front office could seem to completely forget that Joe Nathan was "just a setup man"
I doubt they have. Its bloggers who think they "overvalue" saves. What they do understand is that makeup is an important part of being a closer.
Does anyone think Jon Rauch had the best stuff in the bullpen last year? They made him the closer because they thought he could handle the job, not just because he had a few saves.
"It was interesting that the vast majority of postings on Washington Nationals message boards felt that they would be better off keeping Storen and berating their GM for considering it."
With the exception of the stathead darlings like Billy Beane, every GM is an idiot according to the local bloggers.
The Twins are still in contention and they need relief pitching. But they are likely going to have first crack at every reliever who is put on waivers. And, as the only bidder, they won't have to give up an arm and a leg for someone.
I agree with dumping Pavano. He's 35 and seems like he's on his last legs. For his sake I'd like to see him finish with a contender. Regading Kubel and Cuddyer, I think they're both really tough to move because of age/contract status/injury (Kubel) and I didn't really see either of them mentioned in any rumors. I thought the Braves or Giants might be interested and both have pitching. This team has lots of holes to fill for the long term and doing this via trading deadline moves is not optimal. I think the lack of a deal also shows the lack of talent at AAA and AA levels.
Ed,
Please find another team to follow. Following the Twins is obviously not a fun activity for you.
Even with his struggles against RH hitters, he faces teams, not individuals and it is the totality of circumstances which indicate effectiveness.
Right. So, looking past the hand-picked stats that overstate his effectiveness, let's look at the overall numbers: 4.35 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.91 xFIP. Those aren't bad numbers, but there's no reason to think Slowey can't match them, and Duensing drastically improves the bullpen.
That's fans are conditioned to value "nice guys" above serious contention. Sure, we passed up an opportunity to add talent to the organization and really gear up for a 2012 run.
Can't they do that during the offseason?
Does anyone think Jon Rauch had the best stuff in the bullpen last year? They made him the closer because they thought he could handle the job, not just because he had a few saves.
Actually I'm pretty sure it's "because he had a few saves" -- he'd been a closer with (who else?) the Nationals back in '08 -- that they thought Rauch could handle the job. And ultimately they didn't think he could handle it, because they made the ill-fated Capps trade at a point when Rauch's overall numbers were still quite good.
All the Twins could talk about when they acquired Capps was how good his "makeup" was. We've seen how that's worked out.
"Can't they do that during the offseason?"
Well sure but I don't think they'll get much in return for Cuddy, Thome, Kubel, Capps, Nathan, etc in the offseason. Unless we should keep going on and on with these guys until they retire?
I realize not everyone was going to get traded. Still, though, I just don't understand what doing absolutely nothing tells us about the direction of this franchise. "We're content with where we are - complete mediocrity"? It's either this or the Twins Hubris coming out again: "Sure, we're 6 games out, and sure, the 2 teams we're chasing got better at the deadline. But we're the Twins. We always find a Way. The Twins Way."
The Twins are still in contention and they need relief pitching. But they are likely going to have first crack at every reliever who is put on waivers. And, as the only bidder, they won't have to give up an arm and a leg for someone.
Ah, so that's Bill's plan. Gut the middle infield and the bullpen in the offseason to make sure we're first in line on August waiver claims for the scum that other teams don't want. Brilliant!
"hey made the ill-fated Capps trade"
Yep, sure was ill-fated. They made the playoffs last year, remember? And the guy they gave up has been struggling since April.
Ramos was a good prospect, he may well end up having a better career than Capps. But the last couple months his bat wouldn't have contributed much more than any of the other Twins backup catchers. And I suspect his defense is not as good as Butera's either.
What Capp's struggles really demonstrate is that when you regularly start warming up your closer in the 8th inning, you are asking for trouble.
Its not going to help the bullpen to move a successful starter who has gone into the 7th inning in all but one start this month into the bullpen. If you are going to put Slowey in the rotation, Blackburn is the guy to send to the bullpen.
BTW - the trade of A.J. Prezynski to San Francisco was widely panned by the wise guys on the internet. They traded an allster catcher for a failed prospect (Bonser), a sore-armed reliever (Nathan) who only one season back from missing a season on the DL and a low-level prospect (Liriano) with a history of arm trouble.
The only time GM's aren't idiots is for about a week after their team wins the World Series. That honeymoon usually ends with the first roster move for the next season.
BTW - the trade of A.J. Prezynski to San Francisco was widely panned by the wise guys on the internet.
Can you find us some quotes? Cause that's not how I remember it.
Can you find us some quotes? Cause that's not how I remember it.
Yeah, I think this is just another example of our pal TT making up facts to support his imaginary narrative. I found only one blog with archives dating back to November '03, and that's Gleeman's. Here was his summary of the deal:
"Ultimately, I don't think there is really any way for the Pierzynski-trade to be viewed as a bad one. At worst, they lost one good year from Pierzynski, who was almost certainly a goner after next year anyway. I would be willing to bet just about anything that Joe Mauer will not be better than Pierzynski offensively next year, but I still think Mauer will be a productive major league catcher. And in exchange for that drop-off, the Twins got three valuable pitchers and saved a couple million bucks."
Stupid internet wise guy.
No GM or BB exec is going to be right all the time, but I think the problem is that it seems like ever since the 2006 season this franchise has been straying farther from the bullseye when it comes to making deals. For example, Fuentes was a nice pickup last year, but then wasn't retained. Same with Hardy. It's hard to see a coherent long term strategy right now for getting better. Seems like too much treading water. Maybe Morneau will come back in August and start showing his old form. That would be a nice way to end the season.
Maybe by internet wise guy TT meant the author of the Granny Baseball blog, who told us in May that the "Twins offseason looks smart in retrospect."
"Cause that's not how I remember it."
Kind of the way you don't remember seeing middle infielders back up second on steals?
Nick -
Well I certainly didn't read on Gleeman's blog, because I prefer to read the original authors rather than creative re-writes. But here is the very next sentence in Gleeman's summary:
"Of course, there is a big difference between not being a "bad" trade and being a "good" one. I think whether or not this deal ends up being a good one hinges on either Bonser or Liriano becoming a solid major league pitcher."
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of Nathan. But there were plenty of other people saying Sabean had taken Ryan to the cleaners.
"Kind of the way you don't remember seeing middle infielders back up second on steals?" ... No, kind of like I don't remember seeing both middle infielders leave their position every time someone takes off from first. What I do recall seeing is bad throws from the catcher get fielded by the center fielder on every team I've ever watched, at every level from little league to the majors, so I guess I'm not the only one who doesn't think it's reasonable to expect a 2nd baseman to be able to back up bad throws routinely on steals. Perhaps that's because no team, at any level, has both middle infielders moving when a runner takes off. Maybe baseball is played differently on your planet...the planet where the Twins had a great offseason plan.
But then again I shouldn't be surprised to see you attempt to change the subject rather than respond to the request for quotes to back up your claims. Changing the argument is one of your standard tactics, whenever you're caught in a fabrication or error.
Chied - Quit trying to reinterpret the discussion. The question was whether Hughes was in position, not whether he should have been breaking on the pitch. And your claim was that the middle infielders don't back up one another on steals. You repeated that several times.
Nick -
I think you are projecting. Below is a link to this same argument from the "battle your tail off" board, with you as one of the participants claiming Scott Miller, the former Twins beat writer, was wrong when he made this claim:
"The Twins generally were ripped in November, 2003, when they traded A.J. Pierzynski to San Francisco for a sore-armed middle reliever (current uber-closer Joe Nathan, a central figure in the Twins winning two AL Central titles in three seasons beginning in '04), a former first-round high school pick (current rotation member Boof Bonser) and a rookie league pitcher who had missed all of '02 with arm problems (Francisco Liriano, who was sensational in 2006 for the Twins with 12 wins and a 2.16 ERA and will be back this year after missing 2007 following elbow surgery)."
http://www.battleyourtailoff.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=12221&start=0
So not only did you know I didn't "make it up". Its an argument you have had with others as well. You even used Gleeman's blog to support your argument.
Yeah, because Average Game Score doesn't measure the totality of circumstances. Neither does number of quality starts. Peripherals? Yeah, they don't matter either.
You've got three starters on the staff less consistent than Duensing; one posting a higher WHIP and one an equivalent WHIP.
Hasn't Duensing proven himself a reliable starter? Why dump him, when you have three other starters struggling, two of whom are likely not long-term members of the team (Pavano and Liriano)?
Strikeout rate and swinging strike% don't measure a pitcher's effectiveness? Aren't those factors that a pitcher can control, while WHIP is contingent on a competent defense?
If saves are overated are blown saves overated too? Because the Twins have more than Detroit and Cleveland combined. I'm sure it has nothing to do with being behind both ballclubs in the standings.
Why wouldn't the Twins go out and get a lefty specialist rather than waste arguably their 2nd best starter? We're not talking about trying to land cliff lee here. They dont need left handed relief anymore or less than right handed relief because Burnett stinks it up more than phil dumatrait.
Twins are having an injury laden off year. But this is the same team that has won the division repeatedly over the last 8 years. My diagnosis?
We're battling hard with understudies everywhere. What we learned: Ben Revere can play. His arm is so so but he can hit and run and field.
Ploufe deserves a shot. His bat is better n average for a middle infielder.
Lexi is playing hard. Has had some really good games.
Nishi... not quite ready. But maybe next year. Hard to criticize a guy who changed continents and is playing with a recently broken leg.
Cuddy. He is family. Plays with guts and helps wherever he can. A Nick Punto who can hit.
Mauer and Morneau. These guys just have to deliver. Battle back this year and retool for next.
Valencia. Man what I'd give to have this kid's future.
Delmon. Is still really Young. He needs to step up and be the player he wants to be..
Kubes. What would we have done without him in April and May?
To those who say trade Cuddy. Never gonna happen. Uncle Mike is a Twin for life. Rumor has it he plans to play all 9 positions ala Tovar soon.
Kubes? Naw. He is an odd kinda player, but nobody tries harder, and he can hit 25 HRs a year. When he gets hot he is Harmon light.
Delmon? No way. His best days lie ahead.
Span? He is solid in every aspect of the game. We will deal Revere before DS.
Thome. Are you insane? He goes into the Hall wearing a Twins cap. He shoulda been a Twin years ago...
Pitching? Deal Capps and Mijares and make a rule that nobody with a waistline over 34 pitches for the Twins.
Blackburn has lost it temporarily, so slot Kevin in there for a month or so.
Duenslinger is our most consistent starter. Nick, you don't put your most consistent starter in the pen to throw now and then.
Give Perk a shot. He is pitching like a number 1 starter.
Pavano got a few balls up last start. He'll be better. Liriano is an on and off guy. He needs to find out who he is.
Burnett is not a major league pitcher. He gets shelled allatime.
The pitching has to be there down the stretch or its a no go.
For next year, the same team we have, if healthy, is a contender.
Perk, Pav, Frankie, Baker, and Duesnslinger should be the rotation. Kev and Nick are long relief for now.
Fire Bill Smith! This guy needs to go. He has made too many bad deals, and needs to be replaced by someone who is competent. Problem is: are the Twins willing to pay for someone who is competent.
"Well I certainly didn't read on Gleeman's blog, because I prefer to read the original authors rather than creative re-writes. But here is the very next sentence in Gleeman's summary:"
Exactly.
Gleeman tries to play it both ways in almost every post he makes so he can come back and try to claim he is right later on.
So not only did you know I didn't "make it up". Its an argument you have had with others as well.
Yes, and those others -- just like you, and Scott Miller -- failed to produce any evidence to support their claim, thus leading me to believe that, yes, it's made up.
Were there people who didn't like the trade? I'm sure there were, as there always are. But my recollection is not that it was "widely panned," and so far the only analysis I've been able to dig up was generally positive. You, still, have not provided a thing.
Maybe that's how arguments work on your planet, though.
Nick...I apologize ahead of time for mucking up the comments section of your blog, but sometimes I'm just to stupid to stop mud wrestling with a pig...
Chied - Quit trying to reinterpret the discussion. The question was whether Hughes was in position, not whether he should have been breaking on the pitch. And your claim was that the middle infielders don't back up one another on steals. You repeated that several times.
Reinterpret the discussion? LOL. On a blog discussing the trade deadline, you're the one who steered the conversation to a play that happened in ?May?.
My claim is that on a play in which the catcher bounces the throw to second on a steal attempt, with the SS covering and not even bothering to try to knock the ball down, it's inane to blame the second baseman for the ball going into center field. Which was the point of the original discussion. You claimed the second baseman was out of position and therefore the runner going to third was his fault.
One last time: one a steal attempt, only one of the SS and/or second baseman is going to break to the bag to cover. The other middle infielder is going to hold his position, so that at least HALF the middle infield is still defended. After the ball passes the plate, if it's not put in play, the middle infielder who isn't covering the bag can, and often does, attempt to get to a position 25 ft or so directly behind second base so he can possibly back up up throw. But since it's generally physically impossible to GET to that position in time, most of the time bad throws go through to center field. That IS NOT the fault of the middle infielder who wasn't charged with covering second base. Ever. And it's beyond ridiculous to even consider blaming him for not being somewhere he can't possbily get to in the time available.
Now can we drop this, and get back on subject?
I don't mind you mucking up the comments section, but it seems pointless to try and debate the minutia of baseball with a guy who doesn't even know what a contact play is.
"My claim is that on a play in which the catcher bounces the throw to second on a steal attempt, with the SS covering and not even bothering to try to knock the ball down, it's inane to blame the second baseman for the ball going into center field. "
That may have been your point, it wasn't the claim you made. In your enthusiasm for placing the whole blame on Casilla, you repeatedly insisted the second baseman wasn't even supposed to back the play up. No one ever even suggested he break with the pitch, which you keep repeating as if its some kind insider's knowledge of baseball you are privy to. The two are hardly exclusive.
You can compare two plays on video. In both cases the second baseman didn't get to the ball. But in one case, Tolbert was at the edge of the outfield grass and the ball was just beyond his glove on a throw that was on the mark but the runner was already there. On the other play, Hughes can be seen standing there three feet in from the outfield grass and barely waving at the ball as it went by.
You can also here the color guy mentioning Hughes wasn't in position. Which frankly, is where I came up with the idea. I wouldn't have recognized he was out of position.
"thus leading me to believe that, yes, it's made up."
Apparently there is a conspiracy out there to misinform people. More likely, some of us are old enough to remember. And just like me, they don't care enough to dig out old commentaries on a trade from 8 years ago.
Good point.
Got any ideas on RH relief help that might be available through waiver wire deals? Preferably ones that will be around in 2012?
I almost crapped my pants when Span was rumored to be a trade chip. With his production vs contract, why trade him? Keep Span around awhile if he's healthy enough to play and produce.
I'm also not sure why everyone's so in love with Revere. An OBP south of .300 with ZERO power? He's not ready to lead off a big league lineup just yet. He and Nishi look overmatched (Revere much less so) but still deserve a shot somewhere in the organization for the near future.
I can see the beef with not trading Kubel or Cuddy. I can see wanting to keep one of them, but both? Makes no sense to me. Delmon's not going to bring you anything of value, so don't trade him now, either (unfortunately).
I'd kill for another AJ trade for this organization, but will Billy-Bob at the wheel, good freakin luck.
Got any ideas on RH relief help that might be available through waiver wire deals? Preferably ones that will be around in 2012?
Any chance Betancourt from the Rockies would pass through waivers? I'd love to land him.
Seemed like the Rauch, Pavano and Fuentes additions all kind of came out of nowhere though so I suspect we'll be blindsided by whatever move Smith makes.
since there isn't much to talk about how about this starting pitching staff. hate to say it nick but tho i appreciate your optimism the liriano/blackburn haters going into the season seem to be right so far. what do you think the club should do this year and more importantly next year?
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