Only two American League teams (Oakland and Seattle) have hit fewer home runs than Minnesota this year. After hitting just one homer at Target Field over the weekend while the visiting White Sox clubbed seven, the Twins are on pace to barely edge the 100-homer mark as a team. If they fail to reach triple digits, it would be the first time since 1980 that it's happened for this franchise.
Yes, the Twins are amidst a rather distressing power drought. And unfortunately, the outlook going forward is none too bright.
Jim Thome is not likely to return next year. There's a good chance Delmon Young will be non-tendered or traded. And no player in the Twins' farm system can safely be projected as more than a 15-HR guy in the majors.
These factors add urgency to the decisions involving Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel in the upcoming offseason. Both slugging outfielders are eligible to become free agents, and losing the two of them could prove devastating for an organization that is already desperately short on pop.
Unsurprisingly, the Twins have made it clear that they intend to pursue Cuddyer, with reports suggesting that they've already uncharacteristically tried to open negotiations midseason by offering a two-year, $16 million extension.
Cuddyer and his agent smartly turned down that offer, knowing his outstanding season amidst the Twins' meltdown in 2011 has raised his price tag. Assuming he finishes strong, I'd be surprised if Cuddyer were asking for any less than three years and $30 million once he hits the open market. He can probably get it somewhere. Hopefully not here.
I appreciate all the things Cuddyer brings as a member of this team, but the Twins are already in bad shape with some bulky contracts and handing an expensive three-year deal to a 33-year-old who's never put together consecutive good seasons is bad business.
If it comes down to a choice between the two, the Twins would probably be better off re-upping Kubel. While he, like Cuddyer, has looked great at the plate this season, Kubel has missed significant time due to injury so his stock won't be quite as high.
Prior to this year, Kubel had played at least 140 games in three straight seasons, averaging 23 home runs and 91 RBI. While his platoon splits have been a chronic issue (one that's showing signs of improvement), Kubel's bat has been at least as good as Cuddyer's and he's also three years younger.
If the Twins want to loosen the purse strings and re-sign both outfielders, so be it. But keeping Cuddyer with a hefty contract at the expense of Kubel would be a mistake. In fact, outbidding any other motivated GM for Cuddyer's services will likely backfire in the long run, worsening an already murky financial situation.
Unless Cuddy is willing to accept a hometown discount, the Twins ought to offer arbitration, let the Type A free agent walk and use the draft picks next year to replenish a depleted minor-league system.
Monday, August 08, 2011
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22 comments:
If we keep Kubel but not Cuddyer, then our four best hitters (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Span) will all be lefties. Does the need for balance make Cuddyer more valuable than Kubel for the Twins?
I don't really want to see Michael Cuddyer leave. He is a good player who must be a manager's dream being as versatile as he is. He's also a PR man's dream as he does more interviews and public appearances than any other Twins player. In other words, he's the anti-Kevin Slowey. He's the team's MVP this year. Plus, he's been with the organization since 1997. He's valuable to have around. There's many reasons why he should stay.
But I agree with your reasoning Nick. I heard on the radio that the Twins aren't happy with the current payroll, and want to reduce it. Of course, the Cuddyer/Kubel dilemma is just one of many facing the Twins this offseason. Once again, difficult decisions must be made.
On both the baseball and personal levels for the organization, the Cuddyer decision must be the most difficult one to make. If the choice comes to Kubel or Cuddyer, Kubel is probably more signable for the reasons Nick stated. But I have to say Nick, it won't feel good seeing Cuddyer in another uniform.
Agree with Nick, I think Kubel is a more vaulable asset than Cuddyer. Although I also agree with Drew, it will be tough to see him in another uniform. I felt and still feel the same way about Torii Hunter, but I think it is smarter to let Cuddyer go in the long run. M&M can't be on the DL forever, and I can see Valencia or Plouffe eventually having equal pop Cuddy has.
I like Cuddyer at $16M for 2 years - but I understand why he would turn that down. It's natural for fans to like him, but the reality is he's not worth more than that. His slugging pctg. is still below .500 and he doesn't cover that much ground in RF any more. I agree that we keep Kubel who will basically replace Thome at DH and then you can platoon him with Valencia or Plouffe who both have decent power projections. Hopefully Mauer will show the ability and initiative to play 3B which means we only have to find a starting SS, C, SP or 2, and 1-2 quality RP's. That's all ...
given out slide after the break and trade deadline, not taking advantage of Cuddy's trade value looks like a mistake in hindsight. we probably could have gotten a MLB-ready prospect for him to fill one of our many holes as we look at next year's team (SS, outfield, catcher, bullpen) and given ourselves some financial flexibility to make other moves this winter. Ultimately, a winning team will overcome any awkward feelings with our players in another uniform. We got over Torii and Johan, and we can overcome Cuddy, as long as we start winning more games.
The very fact that the Twins have no one in their farm system capable of hitting 15 home runs... is thoroughly unacceptable. It seems they don't even look for power hitters, they look for players who can play "small ball." They tried to change David Ortiz' swing!! Has the "Twins Way" put them at a grave disadvantage for years to come?
They're going to end up overpaying for Cuddyer at the expense of another, more valuable asset. I hate to be pessimistic but it just seems like they've done that lately to great peril.
The very fact that the Twins have no one in their farm system capable of hitting 15 home runs... is thoroughly unacceptable.
I didn't say no one was capable. I just wouldn't feel comfortable projecting anyone to hit for that kind of power in the majors at this point. Miguel Sano could get there, but he's 18 and in rookie ball. Joe Benson hit 27 bombs last year, but has hit only 10 this year.
Nick,
I am shocked that we actually agree on something!! I have been saying this all year. Sign Kubel to a three or four year contract. He is 27 and entering the prime of his career. Cuddyer is not worth half of the 10-11 million a year he will get as a free agent. Cuddyer will be 33 and has had three good seasons with the Twins. Joe Benson is almost ready and projects to put up the same type of numbers as Cuddyer. Spend the money elsewhere. Please tell me why we did not trade Cuddyer at the trade deadline?
This is going to be a key offseason for the Twins. If for nothing else, a bad 2012 Twins team is going to cause a fall in TF revenues as its novelty drops. They need to go gangbusters for the playoffs next year, and I can't see how cutting their payroll is going to do that. Smarter payroll, yes, but not smaller.
To be contenders, I think the Twins need to re-sign both Kubel and Cuddyer. Plan on Cuddy in RF and Kubel in the DH spot. With the versatility of both of them, their positions can be moved around a bit. Plus, Sonil has a good point about the LH/RH bats. With these two, plus the M&M boys, Span, Perk and Nathan, they have a pretty solid team. Bring in a big name SP as well and fill in the spaces with whatever.
It's hard to evaluate the talent on this year's team with so many injuries but one thing that has to change is how many at-bats Tolbert, Butera, L. Hughes, and Nishioka get. So far this combination has 700+ at bats with a completely dreadful OPS. With Mauer & Morneau both being big question marks, this team can't carry 4 guys like this for next year. I think fixing SS and C have to be top priorities. Signing Cuddyer to a big $ long-term contract is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Cuddy is not going anywhere. He is a Twin for life. Gardy loves him and he is a company guy who sacrifices for the team. He will stay. Period. Kubes is well liked too. He stays too.
Twins will need to change their pitching staff. Perkins could be a starter again. Duenslinger and Baker stay. Liriano may get traded. Pavano has no trade value so he stays. That leaves Blackburn, Slowey and BP guys as trade bait.
Good post. Also, Cuddyer walking forces the issue of 1B and the infield in general. GM will have to address the gaping holes found there.
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/twins-shocked-to-learn-you-can-score-2-runs-in-sam,20989/
This is what Twins baseball has turned into.. WITH Cuddyer
Sad thing is Nick, Bill Smith WILL probably resign Cuddyer and allow Kubel to leave. Honestly, I would have been unhappy with the 2 year 16 million extension had he signed. We don't have the kind of money to keep Cuddyer around. A big reason I advocated for trading him before the deadline (along with his PEAKING value). I'd much rather have some "proven" prospects rather than draft choices at the expense of an outfielder. Since we are now 10GB there is almost no chance at the postseason. It would have been a great idea to sell at the deadline.
The Twins definitely could use some righties as Sonil says, but the majority of pitchers are right handers anyway. The offseason could also provide some decent bats.
Oh and I like Kubel much more than Cuddyer.
Give Plouffe a chance to be the 2012 Cuddyer at less than 1/10th the cost. Keep Kubel as Thome and Delmon will be gone. Dimes to doughnuts that Plouffe's 2012 stats mirror Cuddyer's.
Cuddyer may have never put together consecutive good seasons...but if you decline to give him the 3/30 he will likely want is there ANY chance you can use the same funds to find something on the open market to replace his spot in the everday lineup?
I picture Kubel coming back to be the DH...but even if he does play in the OF I still don't see Revere/Span as an intimidating force. Would rather see Revere on the bench and have some power on in left.
Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel should be considered keepers. Cuddy as well for the right deal (if you think you can get quality on the FA market for 3/30 then go that route instead of keeping him). But from there the MIF has to be reassessed and we may have to look at a new 3B at the same time. (I can live with either Nishi/Casilla in the #9 spot provided Plouffe is playing everyday at 2B and they bring in a stronger backup C than Butera)
To me Cuddyer at anything more than 2 year 16milion is too much. He reminds me of the Coom Dawg (Ron Coomer). A little power, nice guy, but not a guy you build your team around (sorry Cooms!).
I would rather see the Twins spend 10 million in the bullpen on new arms than spend money on cuddyer. If they had done this
(bullpen help) last off season this season would be a lot different even despite the fact this team isn't very good. Bill Smith should be skating thin ice as his performance has been not been any better than his team.
My opinion resembles Drew Madison's. I don't want to see Cuddyer leave, but agree with your reasoning, Nick.
It definitely won't feel good seeing him in another uniform.
Lots of good points. Cuddyer's versatility makes him a keeper. 3 for 30 seems like a hefty tag, though. Kubel is in fact the DH of the future. So how do we budget re-signing the two and create a quality product for next year?
Trade Lirano now for prospects. He still has star apeal despite his subpar stats. If we can replenish our prospects somewhat.
Also, trade Delmon Young now. The real question is there actually any takers? If we could get one bullpen arm it would be a victory.
I'd love to make believe the Twins are going to pull it off this year but unless Mauer magically starts hitting homeruns that isn't going to happen. We've had many obstacles this year, too much even for a great manager like Gardy.
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