It's been a rough month of July thus far for Matt Capps.
On Saturday night, the right-hander entered to protect a three-run lead against Milwaukee in the ninth, only to yield four runs on five hits while recording two outs, giving away the remnants of what was once a seven-run edge.
The following day, he came on with a two-run lead, but gave up two quick hits while recording only one out and was replaced with Glen Perkins, who closed out the win.
Last night, Capps came on in a 3-1 ballgame, immediately surrendered a home run, then surrounded two outs with a hit and a walk before once again being pulled in favor of Perkins, who once again finished the job.
That's three consecutive multi-run leads that Capps has been unable to close out. Not exactly what you're looking for in a closer, especially when your offensively challenged club needs to play .630 ball the rest of the way in order to have a realistic shot at the postseason.
Ron Gardenhire is publicly maintaining that Capps is still the Twins' closer, but there's no doubt that his confidence has waned. Gardy's given the righty an uncharacteristically short leash over his past two outings (for which the manager deserves a lot of credit), and Capps hadn't been particularly effective prior to this month, converting only 13 of 18 save chances.
At this point, fans are calling for Capps' head (I think I learned some new cuss words sitting out by the bullpen at Target Field last night) but the reality is that he's a good -- not great -- reliever that's going through a slump. It's sort of similar, in fact, to the skid that struck Jon Rauch in July of last year, prompting the Twins to trade for Capps in the first place.
Since that swap, Capps has gone 29-for-37 in save opportunities. That 78 percent conversion rate is decidedly mediocre and is actually exactly the same as Rauch's rate over the past two years with Minnesota and Toronto. Similar results for similarly good-but-not-great relief pitchers.
What many said at the time has now been unequivocally proven: there was no mystical quality to Capps' "closing experience," for which the enamored Twins gave up their top catching prospect at the deadline last year and overpaid wildly in arbitration this year. They got suckered.
But there's no use in beating a dead horse. Right now I can only hope that the Twins' decision-makers have learned their lesson, and that they're prepared to swallow their pride and get somebody in the ninth inning who can throw the ball past a hitter once in a while.
It's not his last three outings that have made it obvious Capps is a bad fit in the closer role. It's his 5.3 K/9IP rate on the season. Consistent success is almost unachievable for a reliever allowing that much contact.
Wednesday, July 06, 2011
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18 comments:
hey chill out reporter guy. hes fillin in for nathan and doin a perdy good job. hes a goot set up pitcher and has been a great closer for us beside the last three games. calm down. plenty of season left and Twins have the best starting rotation in th AL Central and when they get healthy they will have the best 1-9 batting line-up in the AL Central as well
Love your blog - read every entry. I think a correction needs to be made. Capps came in with a 3 run lead Saturday.
Oops, you're right. Fixed. Thanks for the kind words!
I think Capp's main problem is that his cleats are usually untied. If only he could see his feet...
So not sure if they 1st posting really knows his Twins baseball. He leads the league in BLOWN SAVES!! Rausch has blown only 2. So to compare the twins are only 2 games closer in the standing is he blows 1/3 of the saves he has blown. This is the point of not being great! In Nathans last full healthy season I believe he blew 4 saves all of last season!
If Capps was an average closer this year, (3BS, Sub 3.50 ERA) the Twins would be 4 games out instead of 7. Joe Nathan has looked great since his second return to the club. This has always been Joe's role, Capps was just keeping his seat warm.
I agree that Nathan looks ready to assume his role as closer, but the problem is that I don't know how much faith you can have in Capps in the 8th either. I mean, if you blow a lead in the 7th or 8th inning, it's still a blown lead. This team still needs another quality righty in the BP. Capps clearly won't be back next year. I guess he's making one decision easier for Bill Smith.
you don't need to have faith in Capps in the 8th if Nathan retakes the 9th. Use Perkins
All this talk about Capps. No one is talking about Perkins. He came in two nights in a row and closed out a game with runners on base. I’m voting for Perkins in the closer role until Nathan is ready. Try out Capps in the setup role now to see how he performs with less pressure.
Perkins has had an amazing season and he really should be commended for it. That being said the value of a closer is very overrated and I am fine with using our best reliever, Perkins, in key situations when we need him most instead of relegating him to the every day closer spot.
That being said the value of a closer is very overrated and I am fine with using our best reliever, Perkins, in key situations when we need him most instead of relegating him to the every day closer spot.
Totally agree. Teams often have their best reliever sitting on the pine while the 3-4-5 hitters of the other team take a lead in the 7th or 8th. But since saves make money, that's where the elite relievers end up.
ITA with SadPanda & Matt: Perkins is our best reliever right now and it would be a shame for him to move out of the role he's got right now, which is more flexible. Gardy will revert to form as quickly as he can and we know how he traditionally uses closers. He gets a lot of credit for his willing ness to yank the struggling and eminently hittable Capps recently, but I actually think we're better off sticking with Capps in the overrated "closer" role than moving Nathan or Perkins into the job.
Capps will likely find himself again and start converting "saves" at an 80% or better rate this season, and if he does the bullpen could become a strength again with Perkins & Nathan setting things up with Mijares as another power lefty. Capps isn't a great pitcher and he's getting rocked right now, but if he's healthy there's no reason not to try and roll with him longer as "closer".
Maybe this stretch of closer incompetence will push Gardy to use his bullpen different, and base it more on matchups and using pitchers in the old "fireman" role where your best relievers would face the other team's top hitters or come in to kill a rally...rather than acting like coming in to pitch 1 inning in the 9th was so much more special.
Not every blown save by Capps resulted in a Twins loss. There's been 1 or 2 times this season where Capps has blown a save and the Twins still won the game.
"He's gonna get beat with his best stuff" It's the best summation the company line folks can ever come up with. Reality is that he goes out there and the Twins hope like all hell hitters will ground his low 90's sinker in the ground. Hitters have very little to fear because his slider isn't good and it's not like he's constantly busting guys in. BTW, what more could it possibly take before Burnett is sent back to the minors? If it wasn't for Burnett and Capps this team would be .500. They are complete and absolute liabilities for a team trying to make the playoffs. I'd rather see Dave Stevens come out of the pen thursday then either of these two clowns.
"Give credit to Gardy" for what.... doing the obvious? Saying it 'takes guts' to yank him is nonsense. As if Cappy's feelings matter more than winning games! Pros don't deserve to be coddled. Acting angry is perfunctory and saying "I'd boo myself" is par for the course. I'll give Gardy credit if Capps is no longer the closer. No movement on his ball tantamounts to a less than mediocre pitcher. At least Rauch had a half decent strikeout curve.
Sorry, but it does in fact take guts to go out and pull your closer (especially two times in a row). For any number of reasons:
1) The manager is admitting the guy he named to be "That Guy" in the ninth is not doing the job he thought he could do. Gardy sets himself up for criticism from both ends as his initial decision (Capps) has failed and his potential replacement (Perkins) could just as easily give up the game.
2) He's dealing with egos. Like it or not "The Closer" is a defined role in baseball. And yes "he's the manager" and thus could tell Capps to go out there and play first if he was so inclined, but that doesn't mean Capps is gonna like it. Remember when the Nats manager broke into tears talking about how he had to go out in the middle of an inning and replace Matt LeCroy at catcher because the opposing team was running on him like crazy?
3) There's potential to be pressure from fans, the media, the FO, and other players anytime you have to start shaking up the norm. Imagine if tonight Gardy came out with a lineup that swapped Valencia and Mauer in the batting order. You'd question his decision and likely focus on that single thing as the driving force behind the eventual result (regardless of what happened).
It was just like the decision Gardy was faced with when he left Liriano out there to go for the no-hitter when Liriano wasn't really "on" comparred to most pitchers. If he pulls Liriano, it's a repeat of when he pulled Slowey during his No-hit bid last year. If he leaves him in and he blows the game in the ninth (which was a very distinct posibility given the number of walks) he made the wrong choice there as well.
Gutsy.
Gutsy, it is not to pull a guy when he gives up a homer, single and then walks a guy (with two outs sandwiched between the walk and single). You suffer from the same disease that Gardy does - pointing out the obvious and likely thinking you are providing thoughtful insight... as if I and others are oblivious to the notion that egos matter and Gardy's decisions get criticized by those above him and peripheral. Gardy had to stop the bleeding - as he said he "went to the hot hand" (Perkins) - who of course could've blown it. You suggestion I would 'focus' on a possible switch between Valencia and Mauer is clap trap. Capps had three crappy outings in a row and goven the circumstances when he got yanked - calling it 'gutsy' shows you think weakly and then provide me with pointless comparisons to defend you viewpoint.
Twins need to give James a real shot. 5 IP and 1 hit and he has looked awesome. Give the kid the ball for Baker's next start.
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