Thursday, July 28, 2011

Buy or Sell?

Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline is just three days away, which has Twins fans everywhere pondering that age-old question faced by clubs sitting on the fringe of contention in late July: buy or sell?

In each of the past two years, we've seen Bill Smith pull the trigger on deadline deals, acquiring shortstop Orlando Cabrera for the stretch run in '09 and closer Matt Capps a year ago. To Smith's credit, both those moves paid short-term dividends, helping the team charge to a division title. (To his discredit, the Capps trade may ultimately go down as one of the worst in franchise history, but I digress…)

This year's Twins team presents a paradox. They seemed destined for a totally non-competitive season after going 17-36 in the injury-ravaged months of April and May, but charged back with an excellent June to move within shouting distance of the division lead.

Optimistic fans desperately want to believe that the "true Twins" are the ones from June who seemingly couldn't lose, but it's more likely that what we saw that month was a natural correction after those first two miserable months. What goes up must come down, or vice versa in this case.

Since the end of June, the Twins have played .500 ball and held steady between 5-7 GB in the Central. It's easy to pump out excuses for their lackluster overall record, but at the end of the day they hold a 22-41 record against teams with a winning record and their pitching staff -- which has largely been healthy -- has allowed more runs than all but two AL clubs.

We need to accept the fact that this just isn't a very good ball club, and dumping valuable resources to make incremental short-term improvements for a mediocre team with a slim chance at a postseason berth is foolhardy. The notion of aggressively buying should be out the window.

Then again, just because they're heavily flawed doesn't mean the Twins should be written off. The AL Central is particularly unimpressive this year and this is a squad that has shown the ability to rattle off wins in bunches.

Trading a key player like Joe Nathan or Jason Kubel would likely put the kibosh on whatever shot the Twins have at closing the deficit in the Central, and I don't think the return on such players would be enough to justify that. Nathan's contract (still owed a chunk of his $11.25M salary, plus an expensive buyout for next year's option) and Kubel's specific utility (righty-mashing DH type on the verge of FA) limit their values to the point where I don't think a lot of impact talent could be had for them. Meanwhile, the Twins have made it very clear that their best trade chip, Michael Cuddyer, isn't going anywhere under any circumstances.

With that being the case, why not stand pat and hope for the best? Other "sell" candidates like Delmon Young and Francisco Liriano remain under team control through next year, so decisions can be made on them in the offseason. Might as well see if those two, along with a number of other underperforming team members, can get it going in the final months and at the very least keep things interesting.

If I were the GM, I'd sit tight and focus on minor moves that won't take usable talent out of the organization, even if those moves come after the July 31st deadline (typically when Smith has done his best work).

46 comments:

Anonymous said...

Well in every trade you're buying and selling so maybe a better way of expressing it is short term vs long term. This team definitely needs to look to next season and I agree that if they can't find a deal that improves them for next year and beyond, I wouldn't do it. For example, don't trade any prospects for Heath Bell or Jon Rauch or the guy from Baltimore. I think it's time to sort out who's going to be back for next season - especially at SS and SP. Their mediocre starting pitching seems to never get addressed and only puts more pressure on their BP. Having to carry 13 pitchers is ridiculous.

cy1time said...

Coolstandings.com shows our chances of winning the playoffs at 2.4%. I think that selling Cuddyer is the right move. If SF will give up Zack Wheeler in a deal for Beltran, we should be able to get a good return on Cuddyer. Wheeler is the kind of guy with front of the rotation stuff that everyone on this board talks about. He might be a couple of years out, but that's the kind of return the Twins should get on Cuddyer and that could really help us down the road.

TT said...

"they hold a 22-41 record against teams with a winning record "

I don't know what you think that means, but it appears to be the opposite of your point. The Twins have played 104 games, 63 of them against winning teams.

If you assume at the end of the season they should have played 81 games against winning teams, they have 18 games left against those winning teams and 40 games left against teams with losing records.

Anonymous said...

the Capps trade may ultimately go down as one of the worst in franchise history

That isn't even the trade you bitched about most this year!

Plus, you defended it at the time.

Anonymous said...

but it's more likely that what we saw that month was a natural correction after those first two miserable months. What goes up must come down, or vice versa in this case.

Dear God, are you serious?! Guess the Timberwolves are going to win it all next year!

Anonymous said...

We need to accept the fact that this just isn't a very good ball club

This is the same ball club as last year, more or less. The difference is it has been crippled with injuries for most the season, but is getting more and more of its regulars in the lineup lately. This team is closer to being an elite team than it is to what we saw the first few months.

Normally I'd look at the standings and say sell, but I want to see what this team can do with its regulars on the field for an extended period of time. Don't mortgage the future to buy anything, but maybe grab some low hanging fruit if available.

SadPanda said...

If I were the GM, I'd sit tight and focus on minor moves that won't take usable talent out of the organization

I really agree with this statement. I don't think we are completely out of the playoffs, crazier things have happened, but I don't want us to focus short term. We really need to look long term with this team and rental players aren't going to help us.

JB_Iowa said...

"This is the same ball club as last year, more or less." Um, no, this is DEFINITELY no the same bullpen as last year more or less.

Anonymous said...

There have been rumors that the twins are talking to the rockies about a trade involving kevin slowey. A long term option would be to trade slowey and a pick for Ubaldo Jimenez, a young pitcher with a lot of upside

SadPanda said...

A long term option would be to trade slowey and a pick for Ubaldo Jimenez, a young pitcher with a lot of upside

Lol, if you think the Rockies would give up Jimenez for Slowey and a pick you are crazy.

Ed Bast said...

"This is the same ball club as last year, more or less."

Not true whatsoever. Bullpen is far worse, middle infield is far worse, Pav and Thome seem to have aged 5 years, etc. They are worse than last year's club, who was embarrassed by the Yankees in the playoffs.

So, if last year's team wasn't good enough to win a playoff game, why would we buy or do nothing? What is the best-case scenario here? Does anyone honestly believe this club is going to overtake the Tigers after last weekend's series? And even if this happens, does anyone believe this team has any chance whatsoever to beat either Boston or NY in the playoffs?

Nick, I just don't understand what "doing nothing" does short or long term for this organization. Are you really prepared to come into 2012 with the same pool of players? Let's inject some talent into this organization. Let's gear up for a serious run next year, not just "well let's see what happens".

One of the biggest flaws of this organization is complacency. We're still trying to promote this stupid "Twins Way" hubris which is a small-market way of thinking. We were a piece or 2 short of being serious threats last year and we were complacent at the deadling. We are still setting expectations at "competing in the division". We refuse to take any lessons whatsoever from 12 straight playoff losses. By "doing nothing" again this year it just reinforces this culture of complacency.

For God's sake, let's not be afraid to change things up for once.

Anonymous said...

One of the biggest flaws of this organization is complacency.

So the two biggest flaws of the club are complacency and making trades (Young, Capps, Hoey)? Oh, and extending players (Cuddyer, Span, Blackburn), and not extending players (Liriano).

So really, everything the Twins do is wrong, even when they do nothing, unless they royally screw the other team in a trade.

Personally, I prefered the conservative GM approach of TR, but I'll still root for the players we have instead of bitch every day no matter what happens.

Ed Bast said...

Anon, that's good, I'm glad there's more than one way to be a fan and that folks like you and I are allowed to have different viewpoints on our favorite club.

Anonymous said...

If you want to be a negative nancy all the time, that's your prerogative. Just know that if you're like that in person, you're probably not very fun to be around. Hopefully you get it out of your system on the internet.

And yes, I am sarcastic and contrarian in person. People like me anyway.

Mike said...

"This is the same ball club as last year, more or less."

Not even close. Thome aged like Favre did (which should have been predictable since he had a hard time staying on the field last year), we lost all competent backups at catcher when Mauer has known injury problems, we have a completely new middle infield (complete sore spot this year) with no competent backup, Valencia regressed like most sophomores do, and the bullpen has been completely overhauled.

I don't know how that's the same. We still have the same rotation more or less and Cuddyer, Span, Young, Valencia, and Mauer.

And of course Nick didn't imply that the Twolves are going to win it all. Teams that underperform or overperform in relation to their capabilities typically even out by the end of the season. The Twins greatly underperformed; the t-wolves played pretty much exactly how they should have.

Mike said...

Anyway, I completely agree with this article. There is no way the Twins should trade anyone of value in trying to win this year. Unless the player is sure to be gone next year, there's no benefit.

Ed Bast said...

"Just know that if you're like that in person, you're probably not very fun to be around."

Thanks for the life lesson! I come here to talk Twins and leave a better human being.

Rest easy, though: in real life I'm a f-ing riot. It's all sunshine and lollipops for this guy.

Anonymous said...

Whew. Let's grab a beer sometime!

Matt said...

it's more likely that what we saw that month was a natural correction after those first two miserable months. What goes up must come down, or vice versa in this case.

Win-loss records are NOT some sabermetric that "regresses to a mean" like BABIP.

There just has to be a typo in that statement...

Anonymous said...

Is it just me, or are the comments a better read than the actual blog?

Nick, you need a vacation!

Anonymous said...

There is really only one reason this team isn't a 500 or better ballclub. Mauer & Morneau (or someone to hit like Morneau) hasn't shown up this year. If Mauer and Morneau had lines like this: AVE 330, 300 HR 8, 25, RBI 60, 85 OBP 410, 380 in full-time play the Twins would be 10 games better than they are right now and basically in 1st place. It's not hard to imagine they have had numbers like that from 2006-2010. It's just that they have been hurt and nobody has backed Morneau up like Cuddyer in 09 and Thome in 10 and their WAR would also indicate it.
Pretty much agree with not selling much at this point. I'm curious about trading Denard Span. It's foolhardy for the Twins to trade him for Drew Storen straight up but for Storen and say Steve Lombardozzi (good numbers in 2-3 minor league seasons fielding & hitting B level prospect plays 2B) & Tyler Clippard then you got a deal.

Nick N. said...

Coolstandings.com shows our chances of winning the playoffs at 2.4%.

I'm sure they were that low at one point in '06 and '09, too.

I don't know what you think that means, but it appears to be the opposite of your point. The Twins have played 104 games, 63 of them against winning teams.

It means they're probably not all that great. BTW, 17 of the Twins' next 23 are against teams with a record over .500.

Lol, if you think the Rockies would give up Jimenez for Slowey and a pick you are crazy.

Particularly since you can't trade picks in baseball.

Nick, I just don't understand what "doing nothing" does short or long term for this organization. Are you really prepared to come into 2012 with the same pool of players?

You know, there is an offseason between the end of one season and the beginning of the next. The trade deadline can be a good opportunity to take advantage of clubs that are desperate for short-term help, but I don't see any GM going crazy over anything the Twins have to offer.

Win-loss records are NOT some sabermetric that "regresses to a mean" like BABIP.

Why not? Over time, trends will usually even out so that a team's record reflects its talent level to some degree. We've seen it happen with the Indians plummeting back to earth after a 30-15 start, and we've seen it with the Twins gradually ascending toward .500 after a 17-36 start.

Anonymous said...

The Twins' record improved because they pitched better, not because the baseball gods wanted to even out their record.

Anonymous said...

"Why not?"

The first question, "why?" is still
the most appropriate.

Statistics suggest the Twins were,
in fact, a different team in June.
They were not unlucky in April and
May and suddenly lucky in june. They actually were performing at a different level.

Love you Nick, but on this point, don't see why long term tatistical
convergence needs to be conjured up to substitute for something that
has an easier and more readily available explanation. Need to see
some suggestion that luck
explains this better than actual change in personnel and performance.

On the bigger point, selling makes
sense except I have a wild card --
the 2012 payroll depends on 2011
attendance and Target Field is selling out. The Twins have sold
hope before, keep putting butts in
seats might be more valuable than any prospect that they can obtain.

tvzombie92 said...

TRADE DELMON YOUNG!
A)His defense sucks which isn't twins baseball.
B)He isn't a consistent hitter.
C)He will eventually make big money which the Twins cant pay for that amount of talent.

GoTwins said...

I would be very upset if the Twins traded Span unless they got a haul for him. Span is one of the better leadoff hitters in the league not to mention one of the best CFs. If the Nationals want one of our CFs so bad, trade them Revere.

USAFChief said...

IMO, any deal the Twins make should have the primary goal of making the 2012 (and future) team better.

If that happens to improve a weak area on this year's team, that's an added benefit.

But a move that only improves this year's team, while removing future assets, is a mistake. There are too many problems with this year's team--unlucky problems and self inflicted problems--and too small of a chance for the playoffs to spend resources on the last 2 months of this season.

If you can't satisfy that goal, then Nick's right...sit tight and figure this out over the offseason.

Nick N. said...

Statistics suggest the Twins were, in fact, a different team in June.

Because, beyond the injuries, players who were underperforming wildly in the first two months went the opposite way.

They were not unlucky in April and May and suddenly lucky in june. They actually were performing at a different level.

There's no doubt about that. They're called cold streaks and hot streaks; every team goes through them and at the end of a 162-game season they tend to even out and give you an accurate depiction of the team's quality.

The same concept can be applied to individual players. Alexi Casilla was by no means as bad as his numbers suggested from April to mid-May and by no means as good as his numbers suggested from mid-May to mid-June, but at the end of all that he was sitting with a .259/.322/.369 line which is probably close to his true talent level.

It's not "luck," it's just the way these things tend to go. All I'm doing is advising against putting too much stock into the Twins' play in June, a month where several individual players were performing over their heads and all the breaks were going right.

thrillho said...

Nick - sorry man, that's a major misunderstanding of statistics with your "natural correction" statement.

If the Twins talent level makes us believe they're a .500 team but they start the season 20-0, that DOES NOT mean we should expect they will go 61-81 the rest of the way in order to even out their record. It means that we might expect them to go 71-71 (obviously no promises) There aren't some magical baseball gods watching the games to make sure our expectations are met.

Gambler's fallacy, right? (though i understand, not literally as baseball isn't as random as a coin flip)

I think you know this but if not byto really has made you lose your fucking mind.

Dan H. said...

Well as far as sellers, we really don't have anybody anyone would want at this point except Cuddy (who I like, but still think we should trade because his value will never be higher than it is now). You could trade Liriano or Delmon but for what? A bag of peanuts?

As far as being buyers what amazing talent do we have in our minor league system that people are going to want? Wilson Ramos was the prize and we gave him away for freakout Capps.

So as I see it, given that they are unwilling to sell their one valuable asset (Cuddy) and really don't have a full take of A level prospects to buy with, we don't have much choice BUT to stay pat.

Anonymous said...

They're called cold streaks and hot streaks; every team goes through them

Hot streaks are not caused by cold streaks. This hot streak was caused by good pitching. And the good pitching was not caused by the earlier bad pitching.

USAFChief said...

If the Twins talent level makes us believe they're a .500 team but they start the season 20-0, that DOES NOT mean we should expect they will go 61-81 the rest of the way in order to even out their record. It means that we might expect them to go 71-71

That's what's known as a "theory," not a "fact."

cy1time said...

"Coolstandings.com shows our chances of winning the playoffs at 2.4%."
"I'm sure they were that low at one point in '06 and '09, too."

It's not just the six games out of first, it's also three teams to pass. I don't remember the standings from '06 or '09 well enough to know, but I suspect that we weren't in fourth place. We might catch Detroit, but we have to pass Chicago and Cleveland, too. Yeah, it's great when we win and Chicago and Detroit are playing because we gain a game on one of them. But wehen we lose when CHI & DET are playing, it means we LOSE a game to one of those teams. I hope I'm wrong, but a 40:1 shot? I don't see it happening.

Thanks to all for some entertaining comments, today. I appreciate the passion for the hometown nine.

Ed Bast said...

Chief, probability is a pretty tried and true concept....For example, the probability of heads in a coin flip is 50%, regardless of whether the last one was heads or the last thousand were tails.

What Nick is suggesting is that if you got a thousand tails in a row, Nature or some other omnipotent being would see to it that the next thousand were heads to even out the 50/50 thing. As anyone who has taken a statistics or math class can tell you, this simply isn't true.

Nick N. said...

What Nick is suggesting is that if you got a thousand tails in a row, Nature or some other omnipotent being would see to it that the next thousand were heads to even out the 50/50 thing.

I'm not suggesting that at all. I'm saying that, throughout baseball history, hot streaks have tended to be offset by cold streaks and vice versa when you're talking about fairly ordinary teams/players.

It happens all the time and might not have any real predictive value, but I think it's what we saw with the Twins over the first half of the season.

Anonymous said...

I think it's what we saw with the Twins over the first half of the season

Why are you standing by this? I know it sucks, but Ed Bast is right this time.

SadPanda said...

Stupid arguing about hot/cold streaks, misunderstandings of statistics and probability aside.

There is a rumor from ESPN that the Pirates are interested in Kubel. I doubt anything would come out of this but it is interesting.

Anonymous said...

All I know is that the Twins should NOT trade Ben Revere; whoever said that is crazy! When you have a 23 yo CF with huge up-side, the last thing you do is trade him. Instead, trade Young or Kubel, guys who have peaked and most likely won't have the seasons we have come to expect from them. Doing this will allow for Span AND Revere to play in the outfield together, giving the Twins overall better defense in my eyes.

TT said...

"Since the end of June, the Twins have played .500 ball "

The Twins are 15-10 since the end of June. That'a .600, not .500.

"their pitching staff -- which has largely been healthy"

If you ignore the fact that their current closer was out for over a month, as was their best setup guy.

the problem with that is runs given up doesn't tell you much for two reasons:

First, 50 of those runs, slightly over 10%, were given up in 3 games. Take away those 50 runs and the Twins staff is about league average. Not that anyone should be judging the quality of the pitching staff on the basis of runs alloeed anyway.

Second, the current staff is not made up solely of the same as the pitchers who gave up all those runs. Hoey and Hughes between them gave up 31 runs.

Mike said...

I can't believe how much bitching and moaning was done about probability. Was Nick's assessment really over peoples' heads?

Every team is going to have hot streaks and cold streaks through the course of a 162 game season. It's unavoidable and if you can't grasp that, sorry, this conversation isn't for you. A good team will have more hot streaks/longer hot streaks and fewer/shorter cold streaks. Vice versa for a bad team. The Twins aren't nearly as bad as their 17-37 start suggested- it isn't (or shouldn't be) a surprise that they've played much better since then and brought the record closer to .500.

A team with a certain talent level/chemistry will typically have a comparable record. If they have an early hot or cold streak, by the time the inevitable opposite streak comes along, it brings that team much closer to where you would expect them.

Mike said...

And people really rely on coolstandings projections to measure up the Twins' postseason chances? They have a better shot than 1 in 40.

Coolstandings bases its formula for projected wins on the run differential. Not exactly reliable. Twins lose by 14 runs, their playoff chance gets cut in half by Texas. They lose by 1, it stays essentially the same.

Come on, guys. It has the Royals projected to gain two games on Minnesota for the rest of the season and for the Twins to play 8 games under .500.

Still, that doesn't mean I think the Twins should be buyers. If any moves happen, they should be made with next year in mind.

Save Kubel Club said...

Not buying into the 'grumblings' of a Kubel trade. If this guy plays and is in the line-up consistantly- he produces ...why trade him? We have good starting pitching, however, we could use some bullpen help. We need to find a better solution for short stop, second base and left field. If Mauer can't consistantly catch, keep him at first or at DH. The only issue is when Morneau comes back - the first base scenario wont be much of a consistant option.
- overall point... if we have Morneau, Kubel, Span, Cuddyer, Mauer, Valencia in the line-up everyday we will win ball games and have a good 'meat' of the order.

Karl said...

Wow - one thing is for sure, the cureent sorry state of affairs has everyone's undies in a proverbial bunch. The last 2 comments sections here have been especially cranky in nature.

RE: Nick

"It happens all the time and might not have any real predictive value, but I think it's what we saw with the Twins over the first half of the season."

You were 100% right in saying it has no real predicitive value. If you think that's what we saw - then you are entitled to your opinion. However - you seem to be really tring hard to defend a position which you concede has little concrete merit to it.

RE: Anon

"All I know is that the Twins should NOT trade Ben Revere; whoever said that is crazy! When you have a 23 yo CF with huge up-side, the last thing you do is trade him."

What about Revere's track record would indicate he has a huge upside? He is a singles hitter with next to zero slugging potential. His arm strength has always been poor in comparison to others at his current level. His defensive range is marvelous - but how is there huge upside to that? He would literally need to catch everything hit within 200 feet of him to significantly improve. If he were ever going to be a .800 OPS hitter, it seems likely he would need to figure out how to maintain an OBP of .500 - To quote Denny Green - "He is who we think he is"

RE: Trading Kubel - ummm... only unless you are 100% certain he will not resign for a fair market price. In what universe are we going to get a career .275/.338/.464 DH/4th outfielder from either our farm system or reasonably priced FA to replace his offense for next year?

RE: Resigning Cuddyer

Go ahead and check Baseball references and see who they list as the #2 comparison player for Cuddy - I can guarantee you it's not someone who would be synonymous with "10m+ per year"

USAFChief said...

Chief, probability is a pretty tried and true concept....For example, the probability of heads in a coin flip is 50%, regardless of whether the last one was heads or the last thousand were tails.

I agree with all of that. I just don't agree that a baseball season, or almost any human endeavor, is analagous to an event such as a coin flip.

Human beings do not behave like assembly line outputs, or coin flips.

Drew Madison said...

Spot-on post today Nick. Very-well thought out and articulated. I just hope that Bill Smith feels the same way. What ails this team cannot be fixed by any one player Smith would be able to trade for anyway.

The organization as a whole needs an infusion of talent that will have to come largely through the system, which means the Twins need to step up and find ways to get more power arms, speedy outfielders who can hit with some authority, and middle infielders who can do more than play defense.

Anonymous said...

I agree with all of that. I just don't agree that a baseball season, or almost any human endeavor, is analagous to an event such as a coin flip.

You're changing the argument. Nick said that the hot streak was to be expected because of the cold streak that started the season because these things tend to even out. You know that's rediculous, Nick knows that's rediculous, even Ed Bast knows that's rediculous.