Monday, March 28, 2011

Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

The Twins entered the offseason with five established starting pitchers under their control for 2011. By re-signing Carl Pavano, they upped that number to six and created a logjam of sorts. With jobs guaranteed to the top two starters, Pavano and Francisco Liriano, four pitchers were tabbed to compete for the final three rotation spots during spring training.

As it turns out, all four of those pitchers have performed well this month, so it comes as no shock that the odd man out is Kevin Slowey, a talented right-handed hurler who's had some friction with the organization and was left off the postseason roster despite winning 13 games last year.

While I don't necessarily agree with the decision to start Slowey in the bullpen, his presence there gives the Twins a quick and competent fall-back option should one of the top five starters falter or suffer an injury. Each of the Twins' six starters has a track record of big-league success and the organization also has top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A, so as we enter the 2011 season the starting rotation appears to be the club's strongest and deepest position.

Carl Pavano
2010 Stats: 221 IP, 17-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 117/37 K/BB



I don't think Pavano's a better pitcher than Liriano, but the argument can certainly be made that he had a better season in 2010 and there's nothing wrong with giving him the veteran nod as Opening Day starter this year. Pavano has earned the billing with a lights-out spring training, allowing only six earned runs in 25 innings over five starts. His dramatic drop-off in strikeout rate in the waning months last season was somewhat unsettling, but all the Twins need from Pavano is 200 solid innings to make his $8 million salary look like a bargain. His FIP has been right around 4.00 in each of the past two years so that should be his baseline expectation.

Francisco Liriano
2010 Stats: 191.2 IP, 14-10, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 201/58 K/BB


Liriano has become a rather controversial figure here in Minnesota. Debates swirl around whether or not he's a "true ace," whether his occasional struggles are more attributable to bad luck or mental weakness, and whether the Twins would be wise to trade him before supposedly inevitable injuries decimate his value. What should be universally agreed upon is that Liriano is a very talented pitcher whose arsenal is among the filthiest in baseball, and at age 27 he's still just entering his prime years. The lefty was victimized by an abnormally high number of bleeders, bloopers and seeing-eye singles last year, but these things tend to go in cycles. I expect him to be phenomenal in 2011, and when the year's over I expect the front office to be cursing themselves for failing to at least more actively pursue a three- or four-year deal this past offseason.

Brian Duensing
2010 Stats: 130.2 IP, 10-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 78/35 K/BB


By virtue of his outstanding performance last year, Duensing was the first "bubble guy" to be awarded a spot in the rotation this spring. He'll pitch fifth sequentially to split up the lefties, but for all intents and purposes Ron Gardenhire views Duensing as his No. 3. That title seems to be more than earned based on the southpaw's core numbers over the past two years (15-5 with a 3.02 ERA) but a deeper glance shows a rather unspectacular 1.98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a huge disparity in performance against lefties (.502 OPS) and righties (.747 OPS). Opposing managers will undoubtedly be stacking their lineups with right-handed batters, so Duensing will have his work cut out for him. Matching last year's magic will be an exceedingly tall task.

Nick Blackburn
2010 Stats: 161 IP, 10-12, 5.42 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 68/40 K/BB


From an outside perspective, it's tough to understand why Blackburn would have been promised a rotation spot so quickly this spring. Last year he remained one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball, and for good measure he also posted the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. The result was a mostly disastrous campaign that saw him demoted to the minors in late July with a 6.66 ERA, though he returned and pitched well down the stretch to finish with a 10-12 record and 5.42 ERA. The key factors in the Twins' decision were Blackburn's previous history as an effective starter (he tossed about 200 innings with an above-average ERA in both 2008 and 2009), his newly minted long-term contract and his good standing with the manager. While Blackburn's extreme contact tendencies can be hard to stomach, it's tough to downplay his value those first two seasons and the fact that a nagging elbow injury likely contributed to his struggles last year. If he gets bombed over the first couple months, Slowey will be ready to step in.

Scott Baker
2010 Stats: 170.1 IP, 12-9, 4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 148/43 K/BB


Only 10 American League starters averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than Baker last year, and only 11 averaged fewer walks. Not many teams can make a claim like that about their fifth starter, but the truth is that Baker is the team's No. 5 guy in name only -- ultimately there's a very strong chance that he'll end up being a more effective pitcher than either of the two above him here. In order to make his results match his outstanding peripherals, Baker will focus on two things this year: staying healthy and limiting base runners. His elbow bothered him at times throughout the 2010 campaign and continued to cause issues early this spring. And while his fly ball tendencies will always make him somewhat homer-prone, the long balls do a lot less damage when nobody's on base. Last year Baker posted his highest WHIP (1.34) since 2006.

11 comments:

ScruffyRube said...

As Shakespeare might say after reading this: "Ay, there's the rub" (though since he's been dead for several hundreds of years he'd probably just say "Brains!" but that's beside the point.)

Thanks for summarizing what is easily the most indigestion-inducing part of being a Twins fan for me. I trust our hitters, our trust our fielding, but as optimistic as I try to be, I have a hard time seeing our pitching reaching a level where it compete against the beasts of the East. It seems as though we can get a couple great months out of young, unproven pitchers that our opponents haven't scouted yet...but once they become veterans the secret's out and we're forced to rely on stuff with mixed results (see Blackburn, Slowey, Baker, etc.).

Can we compete without top-of-the line pitching? Is there anyway to get that without ravaging the farm system for a trade or investing umpteen million in a free agent risk? (Could we just clone Johan?)

Ed Bast said...

Scruffy,

You ask, "Can we compete without top-of-the line pitching?"

The answer is: Within our mediocre division, yes; with the rest of the league, no. Same answer for the past 10 years or so.

For some reason I'm holding out hope that the club makes a significant acquisition at the deadline. But this organization has made it clear year after year that they believe they can win with these starters, ignoring 12 straight playoff losses, so there's really no reason for that optimism. But oh well, I guess I'm just a hopeless optimist.

Matt said...

Thanks for summarizing what is easily the most indigestion-inducing part of being a Twins fan for me.
He hasn't summarized the bullpen yet...

If the Twins are struggling at the deadline, will they move a top talent with HUGE injury questions for the future (Morneau, Liriano)?

Nick N. said...

If the Twins are struggling at the deadline, will they move a top talent with HUGE injury questions for the future (Morneau, Liriano)?

Can't see them trading Morneau. If they're truly out of it at the deadline I could definitely see them trading Liriano.

Anonymous said...

"If the Twins are struggling at the deadline, will they move a top talent with HUGE injury questions for the future (Morneau, Liriano)?"
First of all, the Twins are never out of it at the deadline. Secondly, you don't get to be the best by trading your best players, you trade several younger prospects for established stars.
Thirdly, the Twins won 94 games last year with this pitching staff (even with Blackburn, Baker and Slowey injured for parts of the year), how is that a weakness?

Polish Sausage said...

Wow, so, the Twins just traded one of their only hard-throwing prospects for a guy they could have had for free. This after they traded one of the best SS in the AL for relief prospects who did not make the team.

Memo to Bill Smith: MIDDLE RELIEF DOESN'T MATTER! STOP TRADING GOOD PLAYERS/PROSPECTS FOR IT!

How much more proof do we need: this front office has no idea what they're doing.

Nick N. said...

How much more proof do we need: this front office has no idea what they're doing.

I'm rapidly losing faith. Another totally baffling move to add to an offseason that's been full of them.

Ed Bast said...

Nick, glad to see you're finally starting to see the light.

However, good news: a few more days and then the FO can step back and let the players play, and we won't have to watch Bill Smith make another baffling move (or lack thereof) until at least the trade deadline.

Anonymous said...

I never understood why Blackburn was chosen over Slowey. So here's Ray Flowers' article who says it better than I could:
http://baseballguys.com/2011/03/28/2011-player-profile-kevin-slowey/

Matt said...

First of all, the Twins are never out of it at the deadline. Secondly, you don't get to be the best by trading your best players, you trade several younger prospects for established stars.
First of all, every year is different. Don't just think the Twins are "automatic" competitors.
Secondly, smart, not rich teams, trade players at maximum value and add top notch prospects. The Rays have been competitive in a division the Twins can't even sniff at (hey, they've yet to prove they can compete with the AL East at ANY time under Gardy...).

If they're out of it, I hope they move Liriano. I'm no expert, but that delivery looks like it strains the hell outa that elbow/shoulder. With his often sloppy mechanics, he's an injury waiting to happen.

whistler1217 said...

I am not at all in love with the Twins pitching staff, and obviously would love to trade it for the Giants or Phillies rotations. However I do think they are underrated. In 2010, the Twins gave up 671 runs. Although this is a fairly simple stat, that is 9th in the league and 3rd in the AL. Now the starters, of course, aren't fully responsible for this, but they do contribute the majority. This happened with Black, Bake and Slow all having average to mediocre years. I'm an optimistic person when it comes to the Twins, but overall i'm pretty happy about our Starter situation.