Cameron is one of the brightest baseball analysts in the country for my money, but I found this take to be a rare whiff for him. His logic was flawed in so many ways that I immediately took the opportunity to write up my own column refuting his points. The takeaway:
The reward, which Cameron seems to believe doesn’t exist, is that the Twins have locked up a young, improving, in-house slugger to fill a position that has been a huge liability for them historically, and they’ve done so at a very reasonable price.Cameron's column seemed completely silly after Kubel broke out last year with a monster campaign in which he posted a .907 OPS while homering 28 times and driving in 103 runs. It was precisely the type of season that many Twins fans (including myself) had long been hoping for.
With Kubel taking a step back this season, Cameron took the opportunity today to pat himself on the back with the following tweet:
Jason Kubel: .335 wOBA, 0.4 WAR. Eric Hinske: .333 wOBA, 0.6 WAR. Maybe I'm not crazy after all...If I were Cameron, I'd be trying to forget I ever wrote that terribly misguided article, but now he's defending it? After Kubel emerged as one of the league's best designated hitters last year while Hinske posted a mediocre .780 OPS in limited duty between two clubs? Oh, never mind last season... according to Cameron, that was a fluke.
He positions the standout campaign as an anomaly based on the fact that Kubel's 2010 numbers look quite similar to the ones he posted in 2007 and 2008. The thing is, those numbers aren't bad. Kubel's current .774 OPS rates better than the average DH and also ranks him fourth on a Twins offense that has been one of the league's very best this year. This type of performance has essentially been established as Kubel's baseline, and his numbers in 2009 were no more a fluke than Mauer's '09 or Justin Morneau's 2010 (prior to injury). Sometimes good hitters have really good years, and the Twins -- like myself -- were of the belief that Kubel was a good hitter.
My main issue with Cameron, then and now, is that he looks at issues such as this through an isolated, statistical scope while failing to account for any contextual factors. Never mind that Kubel was a minor-league monster who spent several seasons working his way back to form after a devastating knee injury, leading to the underwhelming numbers that Cameron used as a basis for his Hinske comp. Never mind that Kubel's production, even before that breakout '09 campaign, was especially valuable to a Twins club that had often struggled to find legitimate power hitters in years past. (If Kubel hits one more home run this season, he'll become the team's third player to have three straight 20-HR seasons in the past decade.) Never mind that, in spite of Cameron's assertion that competent and inexpensive designated hitters can easily be found each year on the scrap heap, the position had been a liability for the Twins ever since David Ortiz's departure.
Cameron's core point was that a team could potentially get cheaper DH production from a free agent found on a one-year deal, and there's some validity to that. In hindsight, I'm sure you could find a less expensive option with similar production to what Kubel's given the Twins in three of the past four years. But it's awfully hard to predict how players -- especially those who haven't been in your organization -- are going to perform and Kubel seemed like a safe option, having put together two straight strong seasons and having shown the potential for more.
Adam Lind led all qualifying designated hitters in OPS last year and this year he ranks last. There's a reason that Hinske, Cameron's suggested alternative, has not been able to stick with any club for more than a year since 2006. It's a volatile game, and the Twins made a safe bet on Kubel that -- at this point -- looks awfully smart to everyone except Cameron in light of the fact that they would have likely had to pay Kubel quite a bit more this season based on last year's production had they not already locked him up for $4 million.
Perhaps I'm overreacting to this whole situation because I've always been bullish on Kubel and because I find Cameron extremely aggravating to engage in debate because of his blatant air of condescension. But it stuns me that, at this point, a person so intelligent can still try to smugly defend an article that featured this statement as its central premise:
"In what world is Jason Kubel a significantly better player than Eric Hinske?"
The real world, Mr. Cameron, which apparently is not the one you live in.
34 comments:
Has Eric Hinske hit a grand slam off Mariano Rivera to save a series sweep?
Yes, crude comparison, but I'm with you on this one, Nick.
And for the stat heads out there, the comparison between Kubel and Hinske for this season (.335 vs. .333 wOBA and 0.4 WAR vs. 0.6 WAR) is hardly statistically significant. Stat heads get all riled up over miniscule differences they need to just forget about sometimes and either look at the whole picture, or site stats with a significant difference between them.
Incredibly well said, Nick!
Matt, also worth pointing out that those numbers are negatively impacted by the fact that Kubel has had to face more lefties and play in the field more than he did last year, both of which are the result of circumstances beyond his control.
Booya.
I haven't looked at Kubel's WAR recently, but is the 0.4 WAR listed merely his offensive numbers or is that taken into account his less-than-stellar UZR?
Kubel's spent a lot of time playing defense this year. He hasn't only been DH'ing.
Attacking one of the best baseball bloggers out there. Bold move Mr. Nelson. And in this case, well played.
Nice work, Nelson. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Plus, Cameron's Mariners have definitely shown that you can find DH's anywhere on the scrap heap this year...
Finding a scrap heap DH is a total crapshoot and hasn't worked for the Twins in a long time (Chili Davis anyone?) The one exception being Thome this year for 1.5 million.
Kubel is not a star, but he has been solid and a good deal. There aren't that many dependable middle of the order types just lying around.
He's also the most clutch hitter on the Twins in my opinion. I tried to find stats to back this up, but I haven't been able to. Do they keep track of batting average with 2 outs and runners in scoring postion? Kubel's would be outstanding I'm sure.
I agree with everything you say, while also thinking the Twins should not pickup the option. Especially, if they re-sign Thome. However, I will have no issue with them doing it.
What if Cameron is correct and 2009 was the exception, not the rule? Kubel has put up approx. .270/.335/.460 lines in three of the past four years... doesn't 100+ years of statistics tell us that a 28-year-old that does this is who he is? Baseball history is littered with minor-league monsters that failed to translate their "monster" production to the majors (Alex Gordon, Weiters, Bruce, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood are recent examples, all younger than Kubel BTW). I'd love to see a repeat performance from 2009, but it's increasingly likely that '07, '08 and '10 is what to expect moving forward, not '09. My $.02...
What if Cameron is correct and 2009 was the exception, not the rule?
The point is that if you have someone who can reliably give you 20+ HR and a 775-800 OPS, with the potential for more, that's easily worth $4M-$5M per year. I mean, compare that to the production the Twins are getting from Cuddyer at more than twice that salary.
Nick N... not sure if I agree that a DH that hits 20 HRs with a .270/.335/.460 slash line (and plays terrible OF defense in half a team's games) is worth $4-$5M per season, but it's close enough that I wouldn't argue about it too loudly... My question for you is as follows: Are you trying to justify one, arguably, bad contract decision, by comparing it with a terribler one?:)
To illuminate the Hinske/Kubel comparison - the devil is in the details - The At Bats are disparate and absolutely matter. Kubel is at 452, Hinske is at 259.
To wit:
In 2007 there was a decent NFL Quarterback - his base salary was $5.5 million. His QB rating was 73.9 - his completion % was 56.1% and his avg yds per pass was 6.3 over 16 games.
In 2007 there was another QB who made less than $1 million. He played 12 games and had a QB rating of 70.9 - his completion % was 58.2% and his average yds per pass was 6.5 over 12 games.
It would seem that the $5.5 million dollar QB would be easily interchangeable with the less than $1 million dollar QB using the comparison between Kubel and Hinske for this season (.335 vs. .333 wOBA and 0.4 WAR vs. 0.6 WAR)
The $5.5 million dollar QB was Super Bowl champ Eli Manning.
The $1 million dollar QB was Tarvaris Jackson.
Re Brandon W:
If Kubel plays terrible defense in half of his team's games, then how do you feel about Young's atrocious defense in all of his team's games? Young takes terrible routes, gets bad jumps, drops routine balls, and is not fundamentally sound--seriously, if you are that bad of an outfielder, why aren't you using two hands to catch the ball?
Kubel is at least fundamentally sound--he catches what is hit to him (with two hands (!)), takes good routes, and has not blown multiple games with his inability to catch the ball, as Young has.
And speaking of players with monster minor league numbers that failed to translate, you neglected to include Young. He's got three seasons of .720 to .740 OPS--and this season, which is as, or more, likely to be an outlier as Kubel's 2009. (Why more likely--check out his walk numbers and GO/AO ratio, which demonstrate why his power numbers are low, over the course of his career).
Why compare Kubel to Young? Because Kubel is a left fielder, and Young is a DH, and his career .755 OPS (compare to Kubel's .805) is unimpressive.
As to the article--well said.
You tell him Nick!!!
Kubel is much worse on D than Young. kubel looks better out there, but he is so much slower. If it gets to Kubel, he catches it, but he just doesn't get to many balls.
re: on the road with...
Even though Young is faster, he takes poor routes and gets poor jumps and this is reflected in his lower RF (1.84 v 1.94) than the much slower Kubel.
Cont'd:
According to fangraphs, Young's career UZR is -46.8 (including some atrocious CF, admittedly), while Kubel's is -38.5. No one will argue that either one of them is a good, or even a mediocre, outfielder, but one cannot make the bald claim that Young is a better outfielder than is Kubel. Heck, Kubel's RngR is -31.4, compared to Young's -49.8, so one cannot even plausibly claim that Young has greater range.
Even something as unscientific as ESPN's web gems has Kubel in the lead 11 points/with 2 top plays to Young's 3 points/with 0 top plays.
mgraves,
While I don't necessarily disagree with the point you're trying to make, that is a gross misuse of the UZR statistic. It's a compiling stat, so Young's uglier figure is simply the result of having played a lot more outfield. Prorated to 150 games (roughly one season), Young's overall mark sits at -13.0 while Kubel weighs in at -19.5.
Is this the same Dave Cameron who wanted the M's to give Geoff Jenkins a two year deal to be a full time right fielder back in '08?
Well said Nick! And the first comment by Matt kinda captures how I feel about Kubel. I think he's been a vital part of the team, and is one of our best producers, especially in key situations (without him, we probably have another embarrasing season sweep against the Yankees). As far as his stats, all I can say is that if he could hit for average and produce consistently for a whole season, he'd be All-Star material.
does WAR include being thrown out at the plate because of a retarded 3rd base coach? if so, kubel loses a lot there.
Re: UZR
Point taken.
Kubel has played 2521 innings and has had a total of 587 chances, making 4 fielding errors and 7 throwing errors.
Young has played 4902 innings and has had a total of 1117 chances, making 16 fielding errors and 9 throwing errors.
Kubel has had one chance every 4.29 innings. Young has had one chance every 4.39 innings. These are virtually equivalent.
Young has played almost twice as many innings and has made 4x as many fielding errors. Kubel has made proportionally more throwing errors, which means that Kubel does not have as good an arm, which comes as a surprise to no one.
The fact you all seem to be ignoring is that Cameron compares Kubel to Eric Hinske. ERIC HINSKE. I'd much rather have Kubel than Hinske, and this isn't just a statement coming from a long time Twins fan who wouldn't know any better. As Nick says, there is a reason Hinske has bounced around so much and been inconsistent. Because he's inconsistent and has never been able to lock down a job. Kubel has.
From a stat perspective, Hinske has two 20+ HR seasons - that came 5 years apart from eachother. Kubel is now 1 away from three 20+ HR seasons IN A ROW.
Hinske is never going to give you that "great" season, he's a hitter that is consistently fighting to be mediocre, whereas Kubel has demonstrated that he can go beyond the averages and put together a great season.
I'll take Kubel's potential for that while at-worst performing at a level equal to Hinske's best any day/week/month/year of the calendar.
Cameron was incredibly wrong trying to make this point in the first place, and looks even worse trying to justify now.
Where Cameron really goes off the rails is pretending last season didn't exist. Sure, you can an argument that this year Hinske is just as good a DH as Kubel, but obviously Kubel was far, far superior the previous year. Getting a terrific season plus an average season at an average price is far better than getting a replacement player on a one-year flier.
If Kubel is great 1 out of three seasons and average the other 2, that's still a good deal. It's disappointing that someone who is usually as good with stats as Cameron blows this one so badly.
(irony of the day: the word verification is "zinske")
Okay so if I understand this correctly, the genesis of this post - which controversially posits that Jason Kubel is better than Eric Hinkse - was a single twitter some guy posted in reference to a misguided article he wrote a couple years ago?
Slow news day I guess. Man.
Tomorrow's post: No Matter What My Brother's Buddy Says, I Think Frank Liriano Is Better Than Luke Hochevar
I'm a little confused. "After Kubel emerged as one of the league's best designated hitters last year while Hinske posted a mediocre .780 OPS in limited duty between two clubs?" is followed in the next paragraph with "The thing is, those numbers aren't bad. Kubel's current .774 OPS rates better than the average DH and also ranks him fourth on a Twins offense that has been one of the league's very best this year." Why again was Hinske's .780 "mediocre" while Kubel's lesser .774 is "better than average"?
John, But this is what bloggers do. They have opinons, obviously, and they post those opinions and those opinions never go away thanks to the wonderful web. so these bloggers have no recourse but to fight and defend their opinons to the death, even when they are silly and or wrong. because no one likes to be proved wrong, much less in a format that people can keep shoving in your face until the day you die.
So these bloggers use every opportunity to prove themselves right. Even the best ones, and Cameron's good. But even the best ones are going to get sometyhing wrong every now and then. Heck even Nick does it - check out how insistent he is that Matt Capps is good, but it's just because he supported the trade at the time in writing.
This is the nature of blogging, it is what it is.
Why again was Hinske's .780 "mediocre" while Kubel's lesser .774 is "better than average"?
Context. Hinske wasn't a DH last year; he played right field, where the average MLB player posted a .791 OPS. His output was substandard based on where he played and when.
Getting caught up in those specifics muddles the point, though. Overall, since the start of last season, Hinske has hit .247/.340/.438 with 18 HR. Kubel has hit .279/.351/.491 with 47 HR. Which guy do you want?
Heck even Nick does it - check out how insistent he is that Matt Capps is good, but it's just because he supported the trade at the time in writing.
And then of course you have the commenters, who insist on pushing a narrative that is totally out of touch with reality, such as this one.
Okay so if I understand this correctly, the genesis of this post - which controversially posits that Jason Kubel is better than Eric Hinkse - was a single twitter some guy posted in reference to a misguided article he wrote a couple years ago?
I wouldn't call Dave Cameron "some guy." He's one of the most influential writers in the sabermetric community. This article had less to do with proving him wrong and more to do with introducing a compelling topic of conversation that I think he brought up. (Seems like I was moderately successful, judging by the comments I've read thus far!)
By the by, if there are things you guys would rather be reading about, feel free to suggest them here in the comments section or via email. Not always easy to come up with new topics each day.
I think your picture in the right column of your blog says it best, Nick: I've got a fever, and the only prescription is more KUBEL!
Jason is an excellent example of a Twins baseball player. Works hard and does what he needs to do in order to aid the team. He was contracted to be a DH yet he has proved himself to be quite impressive in the field of late. Your article certainly has sparked excellent discussion. Thanks again Nick!
Nick, didn't mean to offend! One thing I love about your blog is that we can count on you for a new post Monday - Friday, rain or shine. Not an easy thing to do. Just giving you a little tongue-in-cheek crap, that's all. Keep up the good work.
Post a Comment