Ken Rosenthal is one of the most respected baseball writers in the country, and rightfully so. His work for FoxSports.com is typically outstanding, and when it comes to mainstream baseball writers there are few that I respect more.
His latest column on Twins outfield Delmon Young misses the mark though, in my opinion.
That's because Rosenthal prefaces an otherwise fine (if formulaic) article about Young's development with this assertion: "This season he is arguably the Twins’ most valuable player — yes, even over catcher Joe Mauer — and a top MVP candidate in the American League."
Rosenthal's assessment of Young as an MVP candidate is clearly based mostly -- if not entirely -- upon the outfielder's RBI total. Yes, Young leads the Twins with 86 runs driven in. And yes, that production has been critical in a season where the Twins have seen their usual run-producing machine (Justin Morneau) sit on the shelf for six weeks and counting.
But Young's overall performance has been far from elite. He ranks fourth on his own team in OPS, with an .866 mark that is very good but hardly spectacular for a corner outfielder. His continued inability to draw walks has limited him to a relatively modest .349 on-base percentage despite his outstanding .317 batting average. His 15 home runs, while a career high, hardly paint him as a top-of-the-line power hitter.
His RBI total, buoyed by a clearly unsustainable .378 batting average with runners in scoring position, has allowed him to stand out on a club that has often had trouble coming up with big hits in key situations. But in the grand scheme of things, Young still only ranks sixth in the AL in RBI, and that's with his blistering production in July that has predictably teetered off already. Young has driven in only five runs in 16 August games after plating 30 in August, and yet somehow the Twins have managed to keep winning.
I don't mean to belittle Young's offensive progress. Despite his lack of meaningful strides in terms of plate discipline, Young has clearly developed into a more powerful force at the plate. He's not necessarily choosing better pitches to swing at, but he's been able to make better contact with pitches out of the zone, and that's a legitimate skill.
The biggest flaw in Young's game, however, is one that Rosenthal completely overlooks: his defense. Young is a disaster in left field, which has been costly this season as several of the team's fly ball pitchers have struggled. It is because of Young's ineptitude in the field (along with the fact that he plays a non-valuable position to begin with) that he ranks 37th in the American League in FanGraphs.com's Wins Above Replacement metric, which accounts for defense.
I'm not a person who believes that WAR is the be-all, end-all statistic by which to judge a player's value (Denard Span, for instance, ranks ahead of Young by this metric, which is silly), but that's stark. The damage Young does on defense cuts into his offensive value, which on its own would not put him in the MVP conversation.
Young has emerged this season as the competent right-handed bat the Twins have been looking for. He has certainly provided a lot of value to this club and should continue to do so down the stretch. There are several players on the Twins' roster, however, who have been more vital to the team's success, and there are easily more than a dozen players in the American League who have been more valuable.
Had Young's July hot streak carried forth all the way to the end of the season, there may have been some reasonable argument to be made for him being a "top MVP candidate" based on his offensive merits alone. As it stands, the inevitable cold spell seems to have fallen upon Young and his defensive warts have been as apparent as ever. He's still only 24 and can keep on improving, but at this point he's just a good player on a good team that belongs nowhere near the MVP conversation.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
20 comments:
My biggest problem with the article is timing - Rosenthal's a month late to the Delmon discussion. This article had expired before he clicked "post."
I'm surprised that Rosenthal would write something like that. The Twins have the highest OBP in baseball, so its no surprise that they have opportunities to drive in runners. Young's 86 RBI are not only due to his offensive improvement, but also to his teammates getting on base. That's not a bad thing by any means, but by itself it isn't a reason for Young to be considered more valuable than Mauer for all the reasons you mention.
Also, a minor point, but Span has about 94 more plate appearances than Young, and WAR is a counting stat. The differences in playing time and in position contribute to why Span's WAR is higher.
My biggest problem with the article is timing - Rosenthal's a month late to the Delmon discussion. This article had expired before he clicked "post."
That's the same thing I was thinking. Well put. Reactionary to write something like this amidst an unsustainable hot streak, silly to do so weeks after hot streak has passed.
I don't think it's ridiculous that Span is ahead of Young in WAR. Young is vastly outperforming Span at the plate, but Young is playing horrible defense as you mentioned. Meanwhile, Span is playing above average defense at a much more premium position (3.6 UZR/150). Those two factors are enough to give him a slight edge despite the big difference in batting performance.
I think if you have an issue with Span's WAR compared to Young's, it's not due to the WAR calculation itself but probably due to UZR's relatively positive rating of Span, which could legitimately be inaccurate.
I wonder if Doogie Wolfson had your permission to basically restate your points verbatim about Rosenthal/ Young on KSTP tonight-- or did he commit audio plagarism of your post?
Regardless, you made some valid points and some with which I beg to differ. Young's .383 RISP is off the charts good, better than anyone in the AL, even Hamilton at .375. While it is unlikely that he can maintain that number, think about how many RBI he would have this season if he had been moved up in the batting order much sooner, to say 4th or 5th behind Morneau (I still think Mauer would have been of more benefit in the two spot much of the season, creating more hit-and-run situations and less GIDP possibilites). Yes, the Twins have a high OBP, but Young was wasted much of the year batting in the 7- and even the 8 spot- all during a time when it seemed that he and Morneau were the only ones carrying the RBI load on the team. He was usually driving in poor base runners while Morneau could drive in the best three base runners on the team. BTW, Morneau's RISP is only .284.
Young IS only 24 and is by far the best right hand bat in the line-up, nothwithstanding Wolfson's disparagement of him this evening (and still inexpensive). It would be a shame if the Twins would give up on him, ala David Ortiz, just as he was about to come into his own as a legit RH power-with-average guy.
Perhaps a post on the WAR stat is in order. I personally think it is somewhat overrated. Someone pointed out this morning that based on career WAR, Bobby Abreu could be a near-lock on the HoF, which in and of itself should cause severe rethinking on the true value of WAR.
The guy cant play defense. I will bet that the twins will move him in the next 12 months because of this. He's horrible.
Another thing i have noticed is that since young has cooled back off he's missing a ton of good pitches. We all know he swings at anything but wow, he's missed some pitches that he should drive.
Upon actually reading the article, my opinion is that Rosenthal classifies DY's numbers as comparable to those of the leading players in the AL at present. Aside from the opening paragraph or two touting his statistical accomplishments to this point in the season, Rosenthal actually provides a fair summation of DY's tenure in the Major Leagues, complete with a comment on his stubbornness, his desire to make it his own way, and his inability to build trust with an organisation. For the FoxSports audience, this piece does a nice job of giving the Twins and DY some exposure in the East Coast dominated coverage of MLB.
I never assume anything that's written to be correct. Especially by national journalists who know less about the Twins and their players than I've forgotten. But I admit I generally do like Rosenthal although I have no desire to read this piece.
Also, a minor point, but Span has about 94 more plate appearances than Young, and WAR is a counting stat. The differences in playing time and in position contribute to why Span's WAR is higher.
Yes, I understand why the metric calculated Span's WAR as being higher, but I think this example points out a flaw in the statistic. There's just no way anyone sane could suggest that Span has been more valuable to the Twins than Young this year.
Young's .383 RISP is off the charts good, better than anyone in the AL, even Hamilton at .375. While it is unlikely that he can maintain that number, think about how many RBI he would have this season if he had been moved up in the batting order much sooner
Don't know how much I buy this. Young has batted with 340 men on base in 447 PA this year, whereas the average MLB rate would suggest he'd only have 278 men on base in that span. Justin Morneau, at the rate he was going prior to getting injured, would have come to the plate with 322 men on base in 447 PA.
So there's just not much evidence to support the notion that batting lower in the batting order has deprived him of tons of opportunities. Quite the contrary, actually.
Delmon has had a good year, especially the month of July. But, he has cooled off this month. I agree with Nick that his defense is not good. It may be slightly better than last year (could be the weight loss) but overall he looks clumsy and confused out there. I liken it to the proverbial "deer in the headlights" look. I know that our manager values good defense, so I assume that somebody (probably Jerry White) is working with him. He is still a very young man, so we can hope that this area of deficiency will improve. Delmon seems more relaxed around his teammates this year, which I think is a good sign that he is fitting in. I wish him the best, but I don't think he is an MVP yet.
Delmon Young, for whatever reason, does not really appeal to most Twins fans. At a game recently, the fan behind me kept referring to him as "country," and "cornbread," comments that were no doubt racially motivated.
I agree that Rosenthal was a month late, and that Young's lack of plate discipline, coupled with his atrocious play in LF, takes him out of serious MVP consideration.
But let's all be clear on one thing: Delmon Young is having a terrific year, and the Twins would NOT have a four game lead without him. He is far more than "the competent right-handed bat the Twins have been looking for," or what the words were to that effect.
To criticize the Rosenthal article misses the larger point that Delmon Young has emerged as a legitimate run producing threat, and that the Twins are lucky to have him. That Garza/Bartlett trade is looking just fine right now: I'll take 20 HR and 110 RBI (what Young will likely end up with) from our left fielder any year. And when national sportswriters banter his name around, I'll say "Thank's for noticing. We quite like him here in Minnesota, too."
Don't know how much I buy this. Young has batted with 340 men on base in 447 PA this year, whereas the average MLB rate would suggest he'd only have 278 men on base in that span. Justin Morneau, at the rate he was going prior to getting injured, would have come to the plate with 322 men on base in 447 PA.
So there's just not much evidence to support the notion that batting lower in the batting order has deprived him of tons of opportunities. Quite the contrary, actually.
No arguemnt that Young wasn't deprived of opportunities, it's what you do with them that counts.
One evidential problem with your stats is the fact that Morneau, as great a season as he was having has a RISP of only.284, so he wasn't/wouldn't-have made as efficient use of his opportunities as has Delmon. Plus, as profferred, he was frequently driving in the Twins very best baserunners (Span, Hudson, Mauer, Punto, Casilla), unlike Delmon, who had to get the lumbering herd (Thome, Kubel, Cuddyer) to the plate (eg, Kubel thrown out today @ Wed., Thome on Tue. and "moving clinic" Cuddyer? Cmon!) And, Young would have had the opportunity to bat right behind Morneau's .437 OBP. That's a recipe for a few more wins earlier in the season (think back to how many LOBs that Kubel [.258 RISP] and Cuddy [.257 RISP] had in the 5/6 spots from May-June).
There are four Twins who have not measured up to expectations, at least mine, so far this year: Span, Cuddyer (mild disappointment), Hardy (greatest offender), Baker.
There are four Twins who have exceeded expectations: Young, Pavano, Duensing, and Thome, whom I just did not expect to do more than pinch hit.
No other player or pitcher is doing anything out of their ordinary. Perhaps we should all applaud Young rather than nit-pick that he is not an MVP, or rather than nit-picking sportswriters who make such claims.
There are four Twins who have not measured up to expectations, at least mine, so far this year: Span, Cuddyer (mild disappointment), Hardy (greatest offender), Baker.
Agreed, anon. The attacks on Young are strange, to say the least. There are a lot of big-name OFs who are butchering it out there in the field (Braun, Hunter, Abreu, Quentin, Podsednick, Swisher with bottomg-feeding UZRs) and we don't hear too much public disrespect or even about running them off their respective teams.
Love Cuddy for what he brings to the team in leadership and versatility, but not at the price of nearly $10 Mil/yr. I hope he hasn't peaked in his career as it appears obvious that Hardy has definitely done. The club took a shot on Hardy and it has only worked out barely OK. Both are hard to justify bringing back next year at the salaries they command.
I would say that Kubel has been a mild disappointment this year as well, major slide from 2009 statistically (.300/.369/.539 vs. .260/.338/.448 in 2010) and is below his career averages, as well.
The biggest disappointment is not Baker or Hardy, though, it has to be Denard Span. His hitting stats from the previous year are way down (.311/.392/.357/.807 for 09 vs. .269/.337/.354/.691 in 2010). As I posted previously, why has Span been in the lead-off spot most of the season? How does your plate discipline get much worse than your rookie year (BB/PA in 08 was .124 vs. .84 this year, horrendous decline) in a batting slot that demands a premium on OBP? In addition, he is much less than an assertive CF. Does anyone else think that Young and Kubel have fared more poorly in the corners with a relatively weaker-ranged CF than in the past? As I noted previously, putting Hudson and even Casilla (.350 OBP) in the leadoff spot with Mauer, Morneau, Young/Kubel/Cuddy/Thome to follow in the 2-6 or 3-7 spots depending on pitching match-ups and batting hot streaks (ie. I have no problem with moving Young down when he isn't producing, why not the same for Span?).
Span should have/could be in the 9-spot when he is slumping, taking some of the pressure off a potentially great, but still young (26) player who could work through his troubles this year at the bottom of the order (unless Butera is playing).
I'm not going to say Delmon is a good or great or even above average fielder in LF, because we've all seen the plays this year he's missed. But I do always like to point out when his fielding is brought up that his natural position is Right Field. Its what he played coming up through the minors, its what he played for the Rays, its what he SHOULD be playing for the Twins. I can tell you there are distinct differences in playing LF compared to RF, and this plays into his struggles. Now I don't think he'd be an all-world RF if he made the move, but he'd look better there than he does in LF (just like Kubel has looked better in RF lately than I remember him ever being in LF). The OF problems the Twins have do not get solved until Cuddy is gone, what a terrible contract that is for the Twins right now. They have Fly-Ball pitchers and a fly-ball ballpark, but nothing close to a good fly-ball OF. Span is an average at best CF (should be in LF), Young is out of position (should be in RF), and Cuddy (besides his arm) just isn't a good OF.
Meanwhile, Jim Thome is perhaps the best free agent acquisition (value wise) for 2010 in all of baseball, dude has been big time for us.
Meanwhile, Jim Thome is perhaps the best free agent acquisition (value wise) for 2010 in all of baseball, dude has been big time for us.
Love Thome, but if the Rangers don't acquire Vlad G, you'd be possibly looking at the West Division w/o a team above .500. Guerrero has had a monster year for Texas, let's see how Blacky can do against him tonight.
Noticed 2 of my "lumbering herd" members thrown out, yet again, last evening. Love to see the metrics on the Twins horrendous baserunning this year (especially by the "herd" and Denard Span).
Glad to see Span out of the lineup (and the leadoff spot) for the night. But... what the heck was Repko doing in that spot? Casilla has earned the chance to take a crack at it. Hudson was 3/4 OB tonight (.377 OBP in August), why not move him up? Not Repko.
Delmon is just so much improved this season that it is easy to over talk his value. I don't blame Rosenthal for making that statement even though it was a tad preposterous. If Delmon was last year's Delmon we might not be in first place. While we certainly have better players, he's been the one more than any who has made a huge impact through improvement.
So perhaps instead of MVP arguments we need to be making "most improved player" arguments. They do that in the NFL but not sure if we have an award in baseball for it.
We can say though with runners on base Young has clearly been our best hitter. Leading the team in RBI's while not playing much early and batting 7th or later in big chunks of the season is no small feat.
In Delmon's defensive defense, he does have a cannon for an arm and throws with good accuracy.
I would think the Twins would give him yet another year or two to learn to take better paths to fly balls, which I see as his main problem.
MVP? Not yet. In the future? Maybe...
If Mikey Cuddyer is so "versatile", why don't the Twins move him to left and play Delmon in right once (if) Morneau returns?
Post a Comment