When Jose Mijares went down a couple weeks ago with a bit of a freak injury -- he tore the meniscus in his knee while stepping on first base to record an out -- the Twins were placed in a bit of a bind. It left them with only one left-handed option in the bullpen, in the person of 39-year-old journeyman Ron Mahay.
When Mahay suffered his own freak injury over the weekend, a season-ending rotator cuff tear sustained while the veteran stumbled off the mound to field a ground ball, the Twins were placed in an even more precarious position. The only remaining lefty in the bullpen was Glen Perkins, who -- as I mentioned a couple weeks ago -- isn't a remotely appealing option against left-handed hitters.
So it figured that Bill Smith would be busy scavenging the waiver wire for a stop gap option to suppress tough lefties as the Twins wait for Mijares' return from the disabled list, which should come in mid-September. Unfortunately, at this stage of the season, the cupboard tends to be a bit bare, so all the Twins could come up with was Randy Flores, a 35-year-old left-hander who had been pitching out of the Rockies bullpen up to this point.
One might take a quick glance at Flores' 2.96 ERA or notice that he's held lefty hitters to a .220 batting average this year and see this as a quality addition to the bullpen. That optimism is likely to fade when one takes a closer look and sees that his average versus lefties is being held down by an unsustainably low .216 BABIP, that lefties are slugging .460 against him despite the low average, that he holds an ugly 18-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 1/3 innings, and that in the past four seasons he has accumulated a 4.96 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP.
Flores isn't very good, and his strong results this year are pretty clearly the result of good fortune. Lately, it seems his luck has been catching up with him, as opponents have run up a 1.068 OPS against him in six August appearances.
With that being said, the Twins weren't going to move forward without a left-handed option in the bullpen and Flores is clearly a better fit than Perkins. While it's hard to envision Flores as a particularly effective top lefty specialist, he'll only be serving as an interim fill-in until Mijares (hopefully) returns for the final stretch run and postseason.
In the meantime, the Twins will make do with Flores in most LOOGY situations, though Ron Gardenhire would be wise to turn to someone like Jesse Crain in extremely high leverage situations, regardless of what side the batter is swinging from.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
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13 comments:
Are there any minor league options for the Twins?
Not really. Best LH in Triple-A is Jose Lugo, who has a 6.39 ERA.
Nitpick, Mijares didn't injury his knee while stepping on the bag, he did it while avoiding Cuddyer who decided to make the play himself.
Coors field is a hitters park
Let's hope this series isn't indicative of a potential playoff series, but through 3 games we've been outpitched in every game, which is precisely what has worried me about this team from Day 1. Our starters haven't been terrible by any stretch, but theirs have simply been better. And Texas' staff isn't nearly that of NY or TB.
I don't think I can bring myself to watch tonight, for fear that Cliff Lee will make the pain of not getting him that much worse by tossing a complete game shutout, or something.
Off topic but is there any Morneau in site because we need him. I completely agree this is not a bad pickup maybe Anderson can go all Dennys Reyes on him.
Let's hope this series isn't indicative of a potential playoff series, but through 3 games we've been outpitched in every game, which is precisely what has worried me about this team from Day 1.
The Twins swept the Rangers when they played them at home and now they're probably going to get swept playing them on the road. So it goes -- as I mentioned in the yesterday's "No Place Like Home" post, the Twins are a great team at home and a mediocre team on the road, which is why locking up home field advantage in the ALDS is so vital. This is a low point, but the schedule gets much easier from this point forward.
And Texas' staff isn't nearly that of NY or TB.
I don't think I'd go that far. Tampa Bay pretty clearly has the best pitching staff among contenders, but Texas and New York are close to equal; I'd actually fear Texas' staff more in the playoffs with Cliff Lee heading the group.
Off topic but is there any Morneau in site because we need him.
I've heard nothing to indicate Morneau is anywhere close to returning.
Nick,
Agree, it's a road series and all, not huge in the long run. Plus we get them at home next week so we'll see how we come out.
Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in the AL (for my money), but I give the nod to the Yanks staff because CC's a bona fide and Petitte is approximately 62-1 vs. the Twins all-time.
My problem with the Flores move is not the move itself, but why they sent down Slama instead of Perkins. What are they going to use Perkins for? As a lefty specialist he is really bad, as the post says. Long reliever? Manship is a much better option. To eat innings? But he gives up a run per inning eaten. Slama at least can strike a guy out.
^^^
Slama got sent down because he has no history (albeit, a very small sample size) of handling major league hitters with success. He got hit around and walked too many guys in between those strikeouts. He walks a lot of guys in AAA, anyway...
Perk at least has some history and experience in the bigs. Can you count on him? Not really. But I'd trust him more than Slama at this point, though. I was 100% unimpressed with Slama.
I find it extremely funny that a lot of bloggers (not just you Nick) talk about BABIP against averages and how they are unsustainable one way or the other whether good or bad. Francisco Liriano's high BABIP against was talked about 2 months ago and how it couldn't possibly stay at that level (guess what, it still is). And now you say Flores low .216 BABIP against is unsustainable, yet we have 3/4 of a season in the books. If you're talking unsustainable over a CAREER, ya, I feel ya. But its become pretty apparent that these numbers (whether good or bad) are sustainable over a SINGLE SEASON. Which is all that matters here. This is like the Clay Condrey move to me in the offseason, just a filler.
Francisco Liriano's high BABIP against was talked about 2 months ago and how it couldn't possibly stay at that level (guess what, it still is).
When I wrote about Liriano's unlucky season in mid-July his BABIP was at .361; in his next three starts after I wrote that post Liriano held opposing hitters to a .153 average and didn't allow an earned run. I didn't magically predict the future -- abnormally high or low BABIP figures can be very good indicators of a pitcher who is on the verge of taking off or coming back to earth. Speaking of coming back to earth, Flores' opponents' batting average this month is .353.
I wasn't trying to knock your analysis on those facts either Nick (I guess re-reading my comment it comes off that way...I do that sometimes...), If I could reword it, I'd say "unsustainable" is an inaccurate adjective to use when discussing those stats. A better one would be "unstable" (the word 'sustain' implies consistency over a period of time to me, not case by case basis, or game to game), but that's just probably where the difference in interpretation comes in. And believe me, I'm not a huge believer in Flores either, you can read my blog on the move by clicking my name. I point out the same things, that he's done okay in his role by looking at his 2010 body of work, but he hardly inspires confidence. On another note, Keep up the good work around here!
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