Johan Santana
2006 Stats: 233.2 IP, 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245 K/47 BB, 1.00 WHIP
Will Santana capture his third Cy Young?A third straight marvelous season earned Santana his second Cy Young Award in 2006. The 27-year-old led the league in nearly every pitching category, and was the one consistently stable member of a Twins rotation that was erratic and injury-prone. I felt, and continue to feel, that Santana was the most valuable player in the American League last season. He has been tremendously consistent over the past three years, and this year I'm going to predict that Santana comes out of the gates strong and actually has the best season of his career, regardless of the instability around him in the rotation. I predict the 28-year-old Santana will win 21 games with a 2.50 ERA and will add a third Cy Young trophy to his collection.
Ramon Ortiz
2006 Stats: 190.2 IP, 11-16, 5.57 ERA, 104 K/64 BB, 1.54 WHIP
After signing a $3.1 million contract in the offseason, Ortiz is essentially guaranteed a spot in the Twins rotation to start the season. As hard as I try, I have a really difficult time envisioning positive results for Ortiz this season. He posted absolutely horrendous numbers last year, and now he's moving into a less pitcher-friendly ballpark and into a league loaded with more offensive talent. Ortiz will turn 34 this season, and at this age pitchers generally tend to decline rather than turn things around for the better. Is it plausible that pitching coach Rick Anderson could help Ortiz straighten things out and post an ERA under 5? I suppose so, but I just can't see it happening. I say Ortiz has an ERA over 6 when he gets pulled from the rotation around the end of May.
Carlos Silva
2006 Stats: 180.1 IP, 11-15, 5.94 ERA, 70 K/32 BB, 1.54 WHIP
Regardless of how little reason he gives them to do so, the Twins continue to consider Silva a lock for the rotation. Coming off a 2006 campaign that saw him post arguably the worst numbers of any regular starting pitcher in baseball, Silva has looked absolutely awful this spring with an 0-2 record and 7.62 ERA. His sinker still isn't sinking consistently and opponents are knocking him around. Silva was a good pitcher back in 2005, but with each appearance that form seems to fade further into the distance. I'm not even going to bother projecting Silva's numbers, because I've lost hope that he can even be a competent major-league starter at this point. Hopefully the Twins' leash will not be as long as it was last year.
Boof Bonser
2006 Stats: 100.1 IP, 7-6, 4.22 ERA, 84 K/24 BB, 1.28 WHIP
Ron Gardenhire has shied away from specifically tagging Bonser as a sure thing for the rotation, but with Boof's outstanding performance down the stretch last year and his solid numbers this spring it's pretty tough to see him starting the season in the minors. Bonser isn't spectacular in any respect, but he's got good stuff and he knows how to pitch. I think he can be a very solid piece in the middle of the Twins' rotation, and I think he'll be there all year. I'd project 12 wins and a 4.50 ERA.
And now, a look at the three young guys (and the one old guy) vying for the final spot in the rotation:
Matt Garza
2006 Stats (minor leagues): 135.2 IP, 14-4, 2.00 ERA, 154 K/32 BB, 0.87 WHIP
2006 Stats (w/ Twins): 50 IP, 3-6, 5.76 ERA, 38 K/23 BB, 1.70 WHIP
Man, take a look at those minor league numbers. They don't get more dominant than that. Garza started the 2006 season at Class-A Ft. Myers, then got a promotion to Double-A New Britain, and then was bumped again to Triple-A Rochester. At each level, opposing hitters were no match for Garza, who racked up big strikeout totals while showing good control and keeping runners off the bases. By the end of the season, the 22-year-old had thrown 50 innings for the Twins. Obviously, Garza's performance in the majors was a far cry from the dominance he showed at each level of a minors, but the results weren't overly discouraging for a young kid getting his feet wet in the big leagues. I think Garza could turn a corner this year (a la Justin Verlander 2006) and become one of the better young pitchers in the game. It may seem optimistic, but I'm going to go ahead and predict that Garza spends the majority of the season in the Twins rotation and wins 15 games with a 3.25 ERA.
Sidney Ponson
2006 Stats: (w/ St. Louis & NY Yankees): 85 IP, 4-5, 6.25 ERA, 48 K/36 BB, 1.69 WHIP
Ponson was absolutely terrible last season, and really it has been several years since he was even a half-decent pitcher. Still, the Twins signed him to a low-risk minor-league contract in the offseason, allowing the 30-year-old to come in and show the team what he's got left in the tank this spring. Ponson has made only one appearance in the big-league camp so far, and it was dismal. He was shelled for four earned runs on seven hits in just two innings, allowing a walk and failing to strike anyone out. Gardenhire and the Twins have insisted that they will give Ponson every chance of making the team out of spring training, but unless he can get things turned around, Ponson's chances will not be great. The younger guys are just pitching way too well at this point to justify giving him a spot.
Kevin Slowey
2006 Stats (minor leagues): 148.2 IP, 8-5, 1.88 ERA, 151 K/21 BB, 0.83 WHIP
Despite his brilliant work in two levels of the minor leagues last year and his nearly spotless performance this spring, Slowey is considered a long-shot to make the rotation at the outset of the season because he lacks experience past the Double-A level. Still, if he continues to pitch the way he did all of last year and the way he has this spring, there's no way the Twins will be able to hold him down in the minors much longer. Slowey has superb control and a fastball with good movement, but the one major concern with him is that he lacks a great second or third pitch, so when major-league hitters become aggressive and start swinging away at his fastball on the first few pitches, it could lead to problems. Nonetheless, Slowey has given us no reason to think he won't have success in the majors, and he could play a big role in the team's potential success this season.
Glen Perkins
2006 Stats (minor leagues): 121.2 IP, 4-12, 3.85 ERA, 134 K/50 BB, 1.36 WHIP
2006 Stats (w/ Twins): 5.2 IP, 0-0, 1.59 ERA, 6 K/0 BB, 0.53 WHIP
Perkins is an interesting case. The left-hander was a first-round pick out of the University of Minnesota in 2004, and he tore through the low minors to put himself on the prospect map. He first reached Double-A mid-way through 2005, and he struggled there in his first stint, posting a 4.90 ERA over 79 innings. He started last season back at New Britain, and he didn't improve his stock a ton. While he vamped up his strikeout rate considerably, his ERA was still unspectacular at 3.91 over 117.1 IP. Nevertheless, he received a promotion to the pitching-depleted Rochester in time for the International League playoffs, and he pitched well there. He then received a September call-up to the Twins and impressed the coaches by allowing just one run over four relief appearances, striking out six and walking none. Perkins has pitched well this spring, allowing two earned runs on nine hits while striking out eight and walking one over nine innings of work. Garza probably has a better chance of making the rotation to start the year, but Perkins may be next in line thanks to his aggressive pitching this spring and his brief stint in the majors last fall.
5 comments:
I like your analysis (all of them!), but I'm going to sit here and sulk because you left off Scott Baker (who won't make the team, of course, but neither will Slowey, pending some serious upsets in the order of things).
Good analysis.
Two points: I still feel Ortiz will do better than you think this year. He's playing for a much better team – one that can score some runs; he doesn't have the pressure of being the Number One pitcher as he was in Washington last year; he's in the AL, where he seems more comfortable (if you believe all the stories written about him); he seems to get along with Pitchin Coach Rick Anderson, and he'll have better defenders and better relievers behind him than in Washington.
How would Santana have done in Washington – with poor defenders and abysmal hitters behind him?
I'm not saying the team makes the player. But the team is one factor. Certainly Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva, among others, have struggled with an otherwise good Twins team.
All I'm saying is, give Ortiz a chance.
Secondly, your thoughts on the youngsters seems right on track. I hope Kevin Slowey gets a shot wi the Twins soon, either right out of camp, or early this season. The Twins need a good control pitcher in the mold of Brad Radke.
Keep up the good work.
I like your analysis (all of them!), but I'm going to sit here and sulk because you left off Scott Baker (who won't make the team, of course, but neither will Slowey, pending some serious upsets in the order of things).
You're right, and I have to admit that leaving Baker off was something of an oversight on my part. He is still certainly a contender for that fifth spot. I guess he's just kind of slipped from my mind because he has pitched so poorly this spring. I really don't like his chances of making the squad, and that's a shame.
How would Santana have done in Washington – with poor defenders and abysmal hitters behind him?
A lot better. A good way to judge this is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a statistic designed to give you an idea of how well a pitcher performs based completely on things that pitcher has control over (K, BB, HRs allowed); essentially, FIP takes fielding out of the equation.
Santana had a FIP of 3.15 last year. Ortiz was at 5.31. Ortiz was hurt by his fielding, yes, but moreso by his inability to miss bats and his tendencies to walk opposing hitters and give up the gopherballs.
I hope Ortiz can prove me wrong, I really do. I'd love to see him come on strong and give this rotation some veteran stability. I just really have a hard time envisioning it.
How important are AAA innings for a pitcher's development? It seems Slowey keeps getting overlooked by everybody, yet his numbers are as good or better than anyone else's. Is it because he doesn't throw as hard as Garza, or Perkins? Do AAA innings really matter that much? I really don't know, and would appreciate some feedback.
TWINS WIN!
How important are AAA innings for a pitcher's development? It seems Slowey keeps getting overlooked by everybody, yet his numbers are as good or better than anyone else's. Is it because he doesn't throw as hard as Garza, or Perkins? Do AAA innings really matter that much? I really don't know, and would appreciate some feedback.
TWINS WIN!
Sometimes Triple-A innings are important, sometimes not so much. I get the impression that the Twins would rather not push a 22-year-old who isn't yet two years out of college into the majors without any experience at the highest level of the minors. Whether they are right or wrong to feel that way is debatable, but that's just how it is.
To answer your question, he does not throw nearly as hard as Garza or Perkins. Slowey's fastball is generally in the 88-91 MPH range, which is a big reason why he draws so many Radke comparisons. The key is that Slowey's fastball has very good movement and he can locate it extremely well. I just think it's important that he works on developing his secondary pitches, because all of his other pitches are considered average by scouts.
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