Experience Matters

It seems safe to say that the Twins value the presence of veteran experience on their roster. This has been evident in their personnel moves throughout recent history.

When Jason Bartlett played his way up to the big leagues, Ron Gardenhire blocked him with Juan Castro, preferring the latter's infield leadership.

When Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey were knocking on the big-league door in 2007, the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson to build a reserve and avoid rolling with a bunch of rookie starters.

There was the trade for (and subsequent re-signings of) Carl Pavano to infuse the rotation with veteran depth.

And at the deadline last year, the Twins traded away one of their top prospects for the luxury of a reliever with closing experience at the back end of the bullpen in Joe Nathan's absence.

Over the years, this organization has consistently placed a premium on experience -- sometimes to a fault. So it surprises me that now, in a year where they will start three infielders without much history as major-league regulars, the Twins appear prepared to move forward with no veteran infield depth whatsoever. In fact, it makes me wonder if we won't see another move made sometime this month.

Regardless of your level of optimism regarding the team's middle infield experiment this year, it's important to acknowledge that Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka are probably going to miss some time between them. Here are the number of games missed by Twins' Opening Day middle-infield combos over the past five years:

2010 (Hudson & Hardy): 97
2009 (Casilla & Punto): 119
2008 (Harris & Everett): 146
2007 (Castillo & Bartlett): 99
2006 (Castillo & Castro): 132

Whether because of injury, poor performance or trade, the Twins have annually gotten far fewer games than expected from their season-opening keystone combos. Unless Casilla and Nishioka can miraculously shatter that trend, we should expect to see other players getting significant time in the middle infield this year.

Last season, the Twins were well equipped to handle injuries from Hudson and Hardy because they had Casilla and Nick Punto in place as backups. Casilla was enjoying one of the best seasons of his career and Punto -- for all the grief he takes -- brings value in his ability to play strong defense at every infield position (most importantly shortstop).

Now Casilla is a starter and Punto is gone; in their stead the Twins figure to count on Matt Tolbert and a stable of marginal, totally unproven minor-leaguers like Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes. Being forced to rely on these players as regulars during a pennant race could prove problematic.

All of which is why it might make sense for the Twins to pursue a free agent like Orlando Cabrera here in February. He's now 36 and not very good, but one would think he'd have to be willing to take a low-dollar backup gig at this point, and he strikes me as a better fallback option than Plouffe (at the least, it couldn't hurt to have them both around). Cabrera has a lot of experience playing for contenders, and that was a big reason the Twins acquired him at the trade deadline in 2009 (and later credited him as an important figure in their run to the playoffs).

I have no illusions about Cabrera's caliber as a ballplayer, but he has significant experience playing shortstop in the major leagues, and with Hardy and Punto gone, that's something that no one else currently in the organization can claim. Knowing the Twins, that seems like an issue they'd want to address.

Rational vs. Emotional

At times, the two sides of one's brain conflict when contemplating a certain decision. In marketing, there's a great debate over whether customers are more likely to stick with the company that offers the lowest prices (rational) or the company that forms a deeper long-term connection by offering stronger customer service (emotional). For the record, things seem to be shifting in the latter direction.

Which, oddly enough, brings me to Orlando Cabrera. He's an impending free agent whom the Twins will need to make a decision on in the near future. The rational side of my brain tells me there's no way he should be brought back. He'll turn 35 in less than two weeks. He's shown clear signs of decline defensively (the former Gold Glover posted a horrendous -9.9 UZR this season and earned the nickname "Cabrerror" by committing 11 errors in 57 games with the Twins).. And his .313 on-base percentage was a major liability in the No. 2 hole, where Ron Gardenhire seems fully committed to playing the shortstop whenever he's in the lineup.

These are all major red flags for anyone looking at the game with an analytical mindset. Yet, there's something deep inside me that -- for whatever reason -- likes having Cabrera on this team. While I fully believe that the notions of clubhouse chemistry and clutchness and veteran leadership are overrated to a degree, it's not so easy to downplay the positive impact that Cabrera had on the team after being acquired at the trade deadline. Coaches praised his attitude, teammates credited him with helping them become more comfortable, and fans embraced his gritty play and determination. Even though he encompasses a number of qualities I dislike in a ballplayer -- namely, playing poor defense at an important position and failing to reach base at an adequate rate while batting at the top of the lineup -- I can't deny that I enjoyed watching Cabrera play. It also didn't hurt to finally get some power from a middle-infield spot; Cabrera slugged .430 while with the Twins, which certainly stands out for a club that hasn't received a slugging percentage over .400 from the shortstop position since 2001.

Ultimately, I caved in to the rational side of my brain and opined that the Twins should let Cabrera walk this offseason. But I can't say I'd be all that furious if the Twins let their emotional side win out and bring him back on a one-year deal.

Misperceptions

Any time a team acquires a new player with a remotely accomplished track record, the move seems to incite the fan base. So, when the Twins were rumored to be after free agent third baseman Joe Crede late in the offseason, I wasn't surprised to see numerous fans brimming with excitement over the possible signing. And when the Twins actually signed Crede, I wasn't surprised to see folks repeatedly pointing to his 2006 season and gushing about how much his powerful right-handed bat could help put the Twins over the top in the Central division. Similarly, the Twins' deadline trade for Orlando Cabrera was widely lauded by fans who noted that he was a two-time Gold Glove winner who has perennially played in October in recent years.

Surely, the media contributes to this sensationalized view of nearly any new player acquisition. Shortly after the Twins added Crede, the Star Tribune published an article proclaiming the signing as "low risk, All-Star reward," which is a little misleading to say the least, and other media outlets have falsely painted Cabrera's addition to the team as a charge that has rejuvenated the shortstop position and No. 2 spot in the lineup.

Of course, Crede's been nowhere close to an All-Star and Cabrera has only added to the team's woes at the second spot in the batting order. Neither of these developments should come as any surprise. I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to downplay expectations for both Cabrera and Crede on this blog, and sure enough both have played almost exactly up to my expectations. Cabrera continues to show his age and has been a defensive liability (earning the deserved nickname "Caberror") while hitting just .261/.286/.394 since coming over from the A's. He has been an out machine in front of the league's best hitter. Speaking of out machines, Crede has broken down due to injuries for a third straight year and hasn't been very productive anyway, as his .229/.293/.421 hitting line with 15 home runs and 48 RBI puts him in position to finish the year with numbers almost identical to the unimpressive ones I projected in March (.255/.300/.425, 12 HR, 50 RBI).

The troubling thing is that there a rumblings that the Twins may bring back at least one of these players for next year. A recent Star Tribune column noted that Cabrera "made a quick impression on the Twins after getting traded from Oakland on July 31, leaving some insiders saying the team should hurry and re-sign him to a two-year contract extension." That would be an immensely bad idea. The shortstop market will be thin this offseason, but the Twins need to find a better solution than committing to a 35-year-old Cabrera for even one more season. There had been some sentiment that the Twins might seek to bring back Crede on another one-year deal, but fortunately that seems to have been squashed by his latest ailment.

Interestingly, the acquisition that seemed to have drawn the littlest fanfare -- the signing of Carl Pavano -- has been by far the most beneficial to the club. If there's one impending free agent that the Twins should go out of their way to bring back next year, it's him.

Has Cabrera Really Been a Great Get?

While the Twins' season has been spiraling in the month of August, one thing that most fans seem pretty pleased about is the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera. The move obviously hasn't been followed by a run of excellent play like the Shannon Stewart trade in 2003, but Cabrera has received since coming over to the Twins and some have even suggested that the Twins consider bringing him back next season.

This strikes me as a little surprising, seeing as how Cabrera really has not been all that strong of a contributor since joining the team.

Upon moving to the Twins, the shortstop was just finishing up a scalding month of July in which he'd hit .373/.400/.500. Yet, a 605 OPS entering that month, combined with a .274/.322/.397 career hitting line, suggested that the impressive hot streak was not likely to last. Indeed, while Cabrera's bat stayed hot during his first week or so in a Twins uniform, he has since begun to cool down substantially. In his past 10 games, Cabrera is hitting just .214 with a 460 OPS. Thanks to his initial hot streak, Cabrera holds a solid .288 average and .425 slugging percentage overall as a Twin, but his on-base percentage is a measly .299 and he's negated his positive value to some degree by grounding into five double plays at a crucial lineup spot.

Meanwhile, his defense at shortstop has been completely overwhelming underwhelming. Cabrera came over to the Twins with an ugly -9.3 UZR, and that has now sunk to a pitiful -12.5. He has also committed four errors in 17 games at shortstop, looking awfully sloppy for a guy who has a couple Gold Gloves sitting on his shelf.

Cabrera will turn 35 in November. Despite his recent hot streak with the bat, it seems clear that he's not a very effective offensive player at this stage of his career and evidence continues to point toward his defense being in rapid decline. His addition to the team at the deadline still wasn't a terrible move by any means, but anyone who's thinking that the Twins should give one thought to bringing him back beyond this year should really reevaluate their position.