Thursday, August 20, 2009

Has Cabrera Really Been a Great Get?

While the Twins' season has been spiraling in the month of August, one thing that most fans seem pretty pleased about is the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera. The move obviously hasn't been followed by a run of excellent play like the Shannon Stewart trade in 2003, but Cabrera has received since coming over to the Twins and some have even suggested that the Twins consider bringing him back next season.

This strikes me as a little surprising, seeing as how Cabrera really has not been all that strong of a contributor since joining the team.

Upon moving to the Twins, the shortstop was just finishing up a scalding month of July in which he'd hit .373/.400/.500. Yet, a 605 OPS entering that month, combined with a .274/.322/.397 career hitting line, suggested that the impressive hot streak was not likely to last. Indeed, while Cabrera's bat stayed hot during his first week or so in a Twins uniform, he has since begun to cool down substantially. In his past 10 games, Cabrera is hitting just .214 with a 460 OPS. Thanks to his initial hot streak, Cabrera holds a solid .288 average and .425 slugging percentage overall as a Twin, but his on-base percentage is a measly .299 and he's negated his positive value to some degree by grounding into five double plays at a crucial lineup spot.

Meanwhile, his defense at shortstop has been completely overwhelming underwhelming. Cabrera came over to the Twins with an ugly -9.3 UZR, and that has now sunk to a pitiful -12.5. He has also committed four errors in 17 games at shortstop, looking awfully sloppy for a guy who has a couple Gold Gloves sitting on his shelf.

Cabrera will turn 35 in November. Despite his recent hot streak with the bat, it seems clear that he's not a very effective offensive player at this stage of his career and evidence continues to point toward his defense being in rapid decline. His addition to the team at the deadline still wasn't a terrible move by any means, but anyone who's thinking that the Twins should give one thought to bringing him back beyond this year should really reevaluate their position.

13 comments:

Matt P said...

No way he comes back next year. When you have Harris, Punto & Casilla all batting under the 200 line something needs to be done. It would've been nice to see more farsightedness and tried to snag Sanchez, but c'est la vie. I think the trade would've been more effective with him not in the two hole and Punto not getting the lions share of the PT between the other platooners.

Matt P said...

* Harris only batted sub two hundred for the month of July

Unknown said...

Fielding Bible has Cabrera -22 runs. For comparison Jack Wilson is +22 runs. Last I checked a few days ago Cabrera also has one of the worst OBP for SS in MLB. I think such great SS as AAA Hardy, Renteria and Rollins were the only ones worse.

Yup, sounds like a two year contract to me.

Anonymous said...

bill smith seems to be quite a knob, so i wouldn't be surprised if cabrera was back next year.

armadillo44 said...

I'm not saying I want Cabrera back next year but I could certainly see the Twins bringing him back. They certainly need a shortstop and Gardy and the team seem to like Cabrera.

I'm tempted to think that the Twins might try to trade for JJ Hardy but overpaying for Cabrera seems more like a Twins' move.

Topper said...

I completely agree with you, Nick. I think the fact that he came to Minnesota riding a hitting streak, hit that big double in his first game and then played alright for a few more made everybody put on rose-colored glasses. First impressions say a lot and I think people are still kind of in the honeymoon phase with him.

Remember when Tolbert first came at the beginning of '08? He played 21 games and hit .300/.340/.360 through March and April before cooling off substantially. Everybody thought he was the real deal for awhile because of that first good impression even though if you looked at his body of work in the minors you could see he was playing above his head.

Since I live out of market I get lots of other stations broadcasts on MLB Extra Innings, and every other team we've played has talked incessently about what a good pick-up he's been for us. I just roll my eyes. Then when I heard Dick Bremer saying, "I think everyone hopes the Twins will find a way to bring him back..." I almost puked.

Twin #1 said...

I couldn't agree more. His UZR/150 is like -28 since joining the Twins, which is why it's fallen from -9 to -12 overall. Sure, it's a small sample, but the -12 for more than 1000 innings is not.

I appreciated the attempt to compete this year, but bringing him back when he's clearly on the decline would be a mistake, despite what Joe C. and others think. [Can't find the link where he suggested that, but I'm pretty sure I read it.]

Nick N. said...

Good comments today folks.

The Twins definitely have a need at both MI positions going forward, but they can absolutely do better than an aging sub par hitter whose defense is headed down the drain. Hopefully Bill Smith is not blind to this fact.

WWCD said...

Don't count on Bill Smith not being blind. Just look at his vision for our middle relievers!

mnworldseries09 said...

cabreras' been a godsend for the twins are you kidding he had like a 15-gm hit streak, plus he;s a vetran guy who can help casila and liriano as he's spanish speaking too. so his defense has been really good but not really great but so what, defense hasn;t been our problem its been with the pitching. they should get him next year too i mean who else is gunna play sS? i love puinto and all but i'd rather see him at 2b. & brendan harris is 1 of the best utility men in AL. but not a starter.

Nick N. said...

cabreras' been a godsend for the twins are you kidding he had like a 15-gm hit streak, plus he;s a vetran guy who can help casila and liriano as he's spanish speaking too. so his defense has been really good but not really great but so what, defense hasn;t been our problem its been with the pitching. they should get him next year too i mean who else is gunna play sS? i love puinto and all but i'd rather see him at 2b. & brendan harris is 1 of the best utility men in AL. but not a starter.

I hope this is a joke. Nearly everything stated in this post is demonstrably false.

mnworldseries09 said...

no just because its a little positivity doesnt' mean its a joke, i mean i'm tired of all tjhese negitive so called twins-blogs cuz that;s all there is. were a small-market team, no we cant spend as much as the wankees or red sux or even tiggers and white sux, but at least we content yr in and yr out even with our small pay-roll. & were only 6.5 games out we still have a shot and nobody give them any chance. well i'm a twins fan not a winer so sorry if i try to be positive i guess i'll find somewhere else 2 comment.

Nick N. said...

There's nothing wrong with positivity, but trying to spin Cabrera as a "godsend" because he had an 11-game hitting streak upon coming over to the team (during which he posted a pedestrian .333 OBP) and because his ability to speak Spanish somehow benefits Casilla and Gomez seems fairly silly. None of that absolves the fact that his offense overall has been substandard, nor the fact that has defense has been quite terrible (not "really good"). You claim that the team's problem has been pitching and not defense as if the two aren't directly related.

I like people that bring a positive attitude but the points you're making in Cabrera's defense just aren't sound.