Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Three-Bagger: Outfield, Hoey & Mijares

* With their holes at shortstop and catcher addressed early on, the Twins' top remaining priority (outside of the eminent need for more pitching) is signing an outfielder. Presently, they're sort of in limbo with this task and have been for over a week.

It has been widely reported that the Twins have an offer out to Michael Cuddyer -- thought to be around three years and $24 million -- and view Josh Willingham as their top backup option should Cuddyer choose to sign elsewhere. The rumor mill has been fairly quiet with both players, but there are indications from both camps that decisions are coming within the next couple days.

Cuddyer and Willingham have similar profiles and both would fill the club's need for a righty-swinging outfielder with power that can slot between the lefties in the middle of the lineup. Willingham is probably a better hitter, but he's a little less versatile defensively. Assuming they require similar financial commitments, the two are essentially a push, and I think either one is likely to be a solid value at around $8 million per season.

What makes the decision a no-brainer, in my mind, is the fact that the Twins would attain two high draft picks next June by allowing the Type-A Cuddyer to sign elsewhere and bringing Willingham aboard. Those compensatory picks could go a long way toward restocking the farm system, and the Twins would hardly be hurting their competitive chances in the short-term, even though letting Cuddy walk would incense a certain segment of the fan base.

Will Terry Ryan follow his heart or his brain? It appears that we'll find out by the end of the week.

* The Twins waived Jim Hoey, the fire-balling right-hander received in the horribly misguided J.J. Hardy trade a year ago, and on Monday he was claimed by the Blue Jays. Now all the Twins have left to show for Hardy, who emerged as one of the league's better shortstops this season, is Brett Jacobson, a 25-year-old righty reliever that performed poorly in New Britain.

I'm not exactly a big Hoey fan, but I must confess I'm a little surprised and disappointed to see the Twins giving up on him so soon. His performance in the majors this season was clearly hideous, but he was reasonably decent in the minors, where his walk rate dropped for a third straight year, and the organization is short on guys who can hit 96 on the radar gun.

Ultimately, Hoey remains the same player he was when the Twins acquired him: a live arm with serious control issues that he will likely never fully overcome. Still, the front office liked him enough to target him a year ago, and now they're ditching him to open up a spot on the 40-man while preserving no-upside guys like Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray?

I don't get it.

* Another reliever that won't be with the Twins next year is Jose Mijares, whom the club chose to non-tender rather than retaining at a modest fee. At one point, Mijares was a very promising young southpaw, and I figured he'd be brought back considering how little he stands to make in arbitration. However, I certainly can't fault the team for cutting the cord.

Back in 2009, a 24-year-old rookie Mijares was a tremendous asset as a left-handed specialist out of the bullpen, turning in a 2.34 ERA and 55-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 61 2/3 innings while holding lefty hitters to a .480 OPS. His performance has rapidly deteriorated in the two seasons since, though, and the Twins have been vocally frustrated by his work ethic.

This past season, Mijares was flat-out awful. His effectiveness against left-handed hitters was greatly diminished and against righties he was a huge liability with a ghastly 11-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Mijares will find work somewhere and could rebound as he's only 27, but the Twins are already plenty deep on lefty bullpen options between Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing and Phil Dumatrait.

23 comments:

TT said...

Cuddyer is a right fielder, which is what the Twins need.

Willingham can probably play right field, but I undrestand he doesn't really have the arm for it. Which is why he has almost never played there. Sticking Willingham out in left field and moving Revere to center and Span to right just weakens the outfield defense even further.

Those compensatory picks aren't worth that much. They certainly aren't going to "go a long way toward restocking the farm system." And they aren't free, probably costing somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million dollars in signing bonuses.

And that doesn't even put into the equation the inherent risk of going with someone you don't know. Cuddyer is by far the better choice and its apparent Ryan thinks so as well.

Willingham is a solid backup option. Hopefully that will prevent the Twins from overpaying or extending Cuddyer's contract beyond 3 years. I am not sure that I wouldn't prefer Kubel to Willingham, but the Twins probably feel they need the right handed bat.

"the front office liked him enough to target him a year ago, and now they're ditching him to open up a spot on the 40-man while preserving no-upside guys like Matt Maloney and Jeff Gray?

I don't get it."

Maybe that's because you have never really accepted that the Twins took what they could get for Hardy, who they were going to non-tender anyway. That wasn't a trade so much as a salary dump, including Brendan Harris.

Nick N. said...

Those compensatory picks aren't worth that much.

For a team that prides itself on building through the draft... yes they are.

And that doesn't even put into the equation the inherent risk of going with someone you don't know.

As opposed to the complete safety of going with someone you do know. Like Nick Punto. Or Joe Mauer. Or Justin Morneau.

Maybe that's because you have never really accepted that the Twins took what they could get for Hardy, who they were going to non-tender anyway.

They had already tendered Hardy when they traded him. And regardless of how they came across Hoey, I still see more upside in his arm than some of the other marginal guys they're protecting on the 40-man.

TT said...

"For a team that prides itself on building through the draft... yes they are."

The Twins' supplemental first round picks over the last decade have produced one major league player, Matt Fox. Not exactly a crucial factor in their success.

The Twins are going to have 50 picks next year, 2 more aren't that big a deal. And the difference between those two and the next ten is pretty minimal.

"As opposed to the complete safety of going with someone you do know."

There is no such thing as "complete safety", but that doesn't mean some things aren't safer than others.

"They had already tendered Hardy when they traded him."

Hardy was tendered so that he could be traded to Baltimore. They had signed Nishioka before the tender deadline.

"I still see more upside in his arm than some of the other marginal guys they're protecting on the 40-man."

Sure, his "upside" is why the Twins got him and its why he was claimed. But you don't evaluate a player solely on his upside. Particularly when you have a bullpen full of holes to fill.

Patrick said...

The value of the draft picks should not be dismissed. There have been several analysis done to figure out what a draft pick is worth on average. Here is one of the better ones.

Basically, the article concludes that the 2 draft picks are worth somewhere around 3-10 million dollars. With that in mind you have to ask yourself, "How much more is Cuddyer worth than Willingham?"

Willingham has put up 14.9 fWar since 2006 and Cuddyer has only put up 12.2 fWar Willingham might be worth more even without factoring in the draft picks. Considering all of that, from a purely baseball point of view, Willingham seems to be the better choice.

Anonymous said...

I have very little faith in the Twins front office finding value in those two extra picks that Cuddyer signing elsewhere would bring. Ideally if the payroll were allowed to be the same as last year, we could sign both Cuddyer and Willingham. That would surely give us the insurance we need at Firstbase considering Morneau is likely done. Plus add even more balance to the Twins lineup. We're back to living with Minnesota cheap after only two years of building the team a new stadium. We were duped & lied to, that building the new stadium would make us more competiitve in keeping and aquiring talented players. It will be years before the Twins are competitive again.

Patrick said...

I don't understand why everyone is so skeptical of the Twins ability to build through the draft. The process of drafting players often difficult (many more will fail than succede) but the core of the recent Twins teams (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer) and many other important players (Hunter, Jacque Jones, A.J. Pierzynski, etc...) were all drafted and developed by the Twins. I think all of them were even drafted under Terry Ryan, the current GM.

What is with all the pessimism?

Nick N. said...

Assuming that the Twins are going to flunk on Top 70 draft picks is silly. Obviously it happens sometimes, but the Twins have made plenty of successful draft picks in the past and there's no question that you're more likely to accrue more talent by getting additional picks closer to the top. Dismissing the value of high draft picks is incredibly short-sighted.

Jim H said...

Actually, I agree with Nick on the value of draft choices. Clearly you have a better chance to get a good player within the first 100 picks or so than later. TT is a little right in that after the first few almost sure things in a draft, the chances of getting a high impact player becomes something of a crap shoot.

Having more picks within the first 100 picks should give you a better chance of getting lucky, so to speak. And of course getting lucky is worth millions of dollars.

No matter how well you draft or how high of upside the players you draft appear to have, a lot of good things have to happen for an organization to develop a good player. Look at what has happened with most of the Twins pitchers drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last 4 years. Everyone of them has been at least delayed by injuries or mysterious control problems.

So, while I agree that high draft picks have value, you still have luck to realize that value.

Anonymous said...

If the deal goes through it looks like Ryan acted with his brain...Willingham is a definite upgrade as a hitter, better power, better on base percentage with a track record of producing on bad teams. Cuddyer was good but the versatility factor has been overrated. He wasn't a good 2b or 3b and he was marginal at 1b (Mauer looked much better filling in for Morneau than Cuddyer ever did) and he was fairly inconsistent at the plate.

So far this offseason hasn't been splashy but it has shown that the Twins are not settling for the same old roster hoping (and overpaying for) guys will rebound from bad seasons. I have no problem cutting ties with such underwhelming performers as Hoey, Mijares and Slowey. Would Cuddyer have value? Yes but you can't keep giving out big deals to corner OFs when the club could use an upgrade on the pitching staff.

but really the Twins can make all the moves in the world but they aren't going anywhere if Mauer and Morneau aren't back healthy and producing.

TT said...

Jim -

You basically got it. Draft choices have value, its just a lot less value than people seem to think.


Paul -

I suggest you read your link - its the kind of back of the envelope speculation that passes for analysis in some quarters. It doesn't even consider the cost of signing and developing a player.

And to be clear about this:

"I don't understand why everyone is so skeptical of the Twins ability to build through the draft."

I, at least, am not at all skeptical about the Twins ability to build through the draft. But, as you point out, you have to anticipate a lot more failures than successes in the process.


Nick -

"Assuming that the Twins are going to flunk on Top 70 draft picks is silly. "

Not really, after the first tier of players most taken in the draft are never going to be big league players, much less as good as Cuddyer. Why would you assume success?

Obviously some players are going to be successful and the more picks you get, the more chances you have to get one. But if you consider a successful draft is one or two solid major league players out of 50 taken, the extra chances don't add much real value. Even if you consider that your one or two successes are usually from the first ten rounds, the odds of an extra choice producing much are pretty low.

The Twins did have some successes in the 1990's - Scott Stahoviak, Travis Miller and Matt LeCroy. That's better than Matt Fox, but I don't think any of those guys were ever the core of the Twins' success.

Jesse said...

I think it's an interesting indictment on Bill Smith if you follow the Hoey trade back a little ways.

Hoey was received in the Hardy trade. The Twins got Hardy for Go-Go. And Go-Go came to Minnesota in the Santana trade. So all the Twins have to show for Santana now is an empty roster spot and a random minor leaguer who's never going to sniff the majors.

That's infuriating.

Anonymous said...

"We were duped & lied to ---"

The really sad part is that anyone with half a brain knew that was going on. Those who ignore history ---

Pastor Kevin said...

99 losses can't be blamed solely on injuries, although when you lose your best two players around whom the franchise is built for most of the season, it hurts big time. What we saw was that under Bill Smith, the Twins' way of building internally fell into complete disrepair. Our minor league teams, usually very competitive in their respective leagues, are almost all losing teams now. Big gambles with free agents, like Nishi, blew up in his face. The Twins have rarely had success with free agent signings, and often see those guys lose jobs to minor leaguers called up to get a chance. Unfortunately, our minor leaguers aren't able to win at AAA and AA, let alone the big leagues. As much as I hate to lose Cuddyer OR Kubel, we need to restock players in the lower levels. Willingham is reasonably comparable to these other guys and if M&M are healthy, this team may be able to compete in a division that is probably now the weakest in the American league with the Angels all in.

The two picks they might get for Cuddyer don't necessarily have to develop into Major leaguers to be valuable -- with a legit GM, they only need to become tradable prospects. What REALLY hurts about the last 2-3 years is that all of our trade bait got sent out for little or nothing in return. Here's to hoping Ryan can improve our fortunes in how he uses our prospects!

Anonymous said...

I am soooooooooooooo tired of reading your negative tripe. Do you get any enjoyment out of following the Twins at all? With how often you comment, I would think you are an avid follower. With how negative you are, I would think you have a person vendetta against them. Perhaps you should make a New Year's resolution to be a bit more postive???

Anonymous said...

Sorry - that previous comment was supposed to be aimed at Ed Bast in the previous post. Damn tabbed browsing...

TT said...

"The two picks they might get for Cuddyer don't necessarily have to develop into Major leaguers to be valuable -- with a legit GM, they only need to become tradable prospects."

The chances a player will be traded as a prospect are probably even lower than their making it to the big leagues. Apparently none of the players the Twins have taken were "tradable prospects". At least they weren't traded.

"So all the Twins have to show for Santana now is an empty roster spot and a random minor leaguer who's never going to sniff the majors."

They still have Delios Guerra who was supposed to be one of the future stars in that trade. He looks like he will be a major league reliever.

TT said...

I just realized that one of the picks for Cuddyer could come in the first round, depending on who signs him and who else they sign. The Twins have taken three players during the first round as compensation, Glen Perkins, Kyle Waldrop and Carlos Gutierrez. That would add some value to the picks.

Anonymous said...

We don't need a right fielder, we already have a cuddyer clone hitter in doumit (and he hits switch). What we need is a part time outfielder for when doumit is catching/on a day off. That means we keep Kubel out there on those days. Or we sign a scrub for 3 mil. Lets save some cash for our non existant bullpen and get some picks in the process.

USAFChief said...

Maybe that's because you have never really accepted that the Twins took what they could get for Hardy, who they were going to non-tender anyway. That wasn't a trade so much as a salary dump, including Brendan Harris.

You say this as if it's some sort of defense of the Twins decision to not retain Hardy.

If, as you claim, they were seriously considering NON-TENDERING their starting SS--a middle infielder with 25 HR power--then that's an even bigger indictment of their ability to judge talent than trading him for essentially nothing of any real value.

Either way, it was an incredibly bad decision by Bill Smith. A decision that left a gaping wound in the Twins every day lineup and a less talented organization. They are still trying to recover from that decision.

Anonymous said...

And if we had Santana on the payroll still???? - it would be another $20M+/season drain on the payroll while he sits on the 60 day DL for two years.

And remember also, the other thing we got out of the Hardy trade was NOT having to pay all of the rest of Brendan Harris's contract for last year, which saved about a million bucks.

Nick N. said...

And remember also, the other thing we got out of the Hardy trade was NOT having to pay all of the rest of Brendan Harris's contract for last year, which saved about a million bucks.

Yayyyy.

aauobserver said...

And remember also, the other thing we got out of the Hardy trade was NOT having to pay all of the rest of Brendan Harris's contract for last year, which saved about a million bucks.

So you're patting the Twins on the back for linking by trade yet another horrible misevaluation of talent dating from the original deal with the Rays- and then inexplicably compounded their folly by giving Harris a new $3.2 Million deal?

Thinks about this, Smith not only
gave up Hardy for what turned out to be nothing, they had to throw in half a million dollars to defer salary costs in Harris on behalf of the Orioles. All to lock up Nishioka for $14.3 Million!

Tell me again why Smith wasn't named Executive of the Year?

Anonymous said...

I don't get what TT is doing in the comments section here. Doesn't he have his own blog (that no one reads) to spout off his own opinions?