When Terry Ryan stepped down from his role as Twins' general manager four years ago, the baseball world was shocked. At the time, he was the second-most tenured GM in the majors, and it was clear from the league's reaction that he carried a lot respect around the game.
Kevin Towers, who was the GM of the Padres at that point, said of Ryan: "He's an honest man with a tremendous integrity, and a great evaluator. The best way I can put it is he's a baseball man."
Ryan's replacement, Bill Smith, carries a different set of attributes. Unlike Ryan, he's not a trained scout with a keen eye for talent. The same article linked above described Smith as being "well-versed in baseball rules" and "a stickler for details and finances."
An administrator, perhaps, but not a baseball man.
Smith's tenure as GM started out on a sour note, as he drew the unenviable tasks of allowing Torii Hunter to walk as a free agent and trading Johan Santana. The dread of making these unpopular, yet necessary, moves likely played a big part in Ryan's decision to resign.
This first offseason at the helm qualified as trial by fire for Smith, and so it was somewhat easy to excuse his lackluster returns in the Santana and Delmon Young deals. Yet, several years later Smith still appears overmatched. Too many moves over the last 18 months have backfired, and fans are fed up. With the baseball season coming to a close and a slate of difficult decisions approaching this winter, faith in the front office is at a low point.
I've seen many calls for Smith's dismissal, but I'm not sure this would effectively resolve the core issues afflicting the organization. It's naive to think that the GM is working in a silo when it comes to personnel decisions -- especially a finance guy like Smith who is clearly reliant on the folks around him to evaluate talent and identify targets.
This front office is plagued by stagnating philosophies. Barring a complete overhaul, that's not going to change. I've been as vocally critical of Smith's moves as anyone, but even I can't bring myself to believe that firing him is going to serve as a cure-all for this franchise's woes. More than anything, I don't think it's feasible to expect the Twins -- a fiercely loyal organization that promotes from within -- to replace Smith with someone who would take a meaningfully different approach.
What I would like to see, however, is a fresh face enlisted to fill a high-ranking decision-making role within the front office. A progressive thinker from outside the organization. A baseball man.
If the Twins are serious about turning the ship around, their shake-up must go beyond firing the Triple-A manager and pitching coach. This is a club in desperate need of new perspectives and outside-the-box solutions. Firing the general manager might not be a realistic solution, but putting a different voice in his ear than the ones he's been listening to recently could go a long way toward reversing the front office's growing trend of swings and misses.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
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I've seen many calls for Smith's dismissal, but I'm not sure this would effectively resolve the core issues afflicting the organization.
I guess I don't see how 'adding a voice' to a position at a level below GM is going to make a difference, but adding that voice AT the GM position would be less effective.
This team does need a change in philosophy, and it needs to come from the top. You yourself said Smith is likely getting advice now, and the results have been dismal. One more voice isn't going to turn Smith into an effective GM overnight.
No, the way to go is to add a new voice, but it needs to be added at the GM level, where it will be heard. A youngish, baseball-savvy voice, with both scouting and statistical smarts, from outside the organization.
Why does he need to spend money on an outside voice when he can just read the Twins blogs for free?
Does anyone know who the "baseball guy" is in the front office? Not that he would have to be next in line but I have to assume there is someone with a lot of power (assistant GM or whatever) that has the eye for the players.
"A change of philosophy" keeps getting mentioned. Maybe it's time for the Twins to start looking more into advanced metrics. From many accounts I've read and heard the Twins are at the far bottom of the league when it comes to using advanced metrics and statistics in there decision making process. Maybe it's time for the Twins to change and adopt a more analytical way of doing business.
If you are ever short on an idea for a post I would be interested in hearing your take on the Twins use, or lack there of, of advanced metrics.
Yeah the Twins need to get some new players for next year not a 'Baseball Guy' whatever that is. Should they hire Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill?
Tough year, but unless the Twins drop payroll by 25 million, do nothing in the offseason and also get another billion injuries I see them returning to form next year.
I like what I see already with Joe Benson & Chris Parmelee. Liam Hendriks hasn't really pitched any worse than Slowey or Liriano and he makes the minimum. I think you part ways with Cuddy & Kubel and look at more positions of need. Starting Pitching, and Middle Infield help will improve the Twins drastically. Get some supplemental draft picks the #2 pick in the draft and remember you still reside in the weak AL Central.
Sean
I'm not sure a complete blow up is in order. Besides Ryan, Radcliff and Kvirsky (now with the Mets) are highly respected baseball men so I don't think the Twins are in danger of becoming left behind simply b/c they (seem) to look at things differently than other teams. The Twins weren't expected to be as good as they were in 08 or 09, when they went to 163 games, and they were really good last year. I know it's boring but the Twins main problem this year were the injuries. Any team would struggle a lot if you take away players as good as Mauer/Morneau/Span and Kubel.
I do think another voice is needed, though. Obviously, Gardy has a lot to say on baseball personnel so that's why Hardy and Crede are both gone. And Gardy never seemed to get on board with Smith's plans to get rid of the piranhas.
I'm also concerned why guys who have been in the minors for 5-6 years still are out of position so much. That seems like something the FO should fix ASAP. (On the other hand, the Twins brought in Tom Brunansky as the hitting coach at AA and he's gotten a lot of credit for helping Benson and Parmelee be more patient, so that was a good move.)
So you're suggesting not firing Smith, but instead hiring someone to tell him what to do? That makes little sense. If Smith needs someone to tell him how to do his job, well, he's probably not the man for that position. Hold Smith accountable for running this franchise into the ground. The organization needs an injection of new ideas and philosophies at the top. There's nothing to lose now by a major shakeup - Smith has destroyed this team well beyond 2011. How is it in the best interest of the organization to keep him on?
Retire the "Twins Way". It's over. Rebuild from the top down. Why would you keep the same cast of characters and expect things to change?
Nick, I'd really like to know what the positive would be in keeping Smith.
Nick, I'd really like to know what the positive would be in keeping Smith.
I'm trying to be realistic. I don't think there's any chance the Twins will fire Smith after one bad season. I'd be satisfied with some fresh blood in the front office power structure.
What is 'necessary' ? Sounds like you're trying to place yourself on both sides if the fence Nick. Of course, a new GM wouldn't fix the ills of this team since the damage and lack of talent runs so deep and wide, but adding a voice with no power MAKES NO SENSE. Criticism must be applied to where it matters .... that's at the top. If you want to be realistic ... then it's tougher to be critical. Which way do you want it? No conviction equates to a weak viewpoint ... fence straddling.
"More than anything, I don't think it's feasible to expect the Twins -- a fiercely loyal organization that promotes from within -- to replace Smith with someone who would take a meaningfully different approach."
And it's thinking like that that will plague the Twins. If this year has done nothing else, it has shown that the organization as a whole has uttlery failed to do their jobs successfully. I mean, the guys they are playing now shouldn't be so bad that they lose 11 games in a row. The way the Twins have lost games all this year, but particularly lately, would be comical if it weren't both aggravating and sad.
I don't understand why Jim Pohlad doesn't see what Tampa Bay has done this year and in years past and try to do it the same way as well. After all, Tampa Bay wasn't "lucky" to win 2 Eastern div. titles and beat Boston in the playoffs. They earned it, something the Twins just haven't done. Of course the Rays had their share of good fortune, and never would have survived in the East with the same injuries the Twins have had, but even in that division I doubt this year the Rays would be 60-95. Why have they been more successful at procuring new talent while simultaneously turning over their ML roster every year than the Twins have been lately? The "baseball man" I'd hire would be able to both answer that question and could replicate the methods here.
Oh, I noticed Nick that you never said expicitly that firing Bill Smith would be a bad idea, just that it wouldn't be a cure-all for the team's woes, and that it wouldn't be feasible to expect that. If he doesn't hire any new voice(s) that he can listen to, what then?
Tampa Bay benefitted from drafting in the top 3 spots for a decade. Let's see how they do now that their talent is leaving and they're drafting near the bottom. As for the GM, let's go get Brad Pitt. He can play the GM role better than Bill Smith - and he's a lot more entertaining.
Of course, a new GM wouldn't fix the ills of this team since the damage and lack of talent runs so deep and wide, but adding a voice with no power MAKES NO SENSE.
I think I made it pretty clear that this new voice would have to be in a position of considerable sway.
Tampa Bay benefitted from drafting in the top 3 spots for a decade. Let's see how they do now that their talent is leaving and they're drafting near the bottom.
That's part of it, but they've also simply drafted better. For instance, Jeremy Hellickson was a fourth round pick. Matt Moore was an eight-round pick.
For years, I read articles about how other organizations admired and tried to emulate the "Twins way." I agree that at this point the Twins should try taking a few pages from Tampa Bay's book
I'm admittedly not a big Bill Smith fan, and we're all on the same page with the floundering decisions that were made with the Santana/Garza/Hardy/et. al deals, but under his reign the Twins have been much more active internationally than they ever were under Ryan (at least in my mind).
Nick's right in that the Twins will never make the changes that would need to be made. Radcliffe's a baseball guy and high enough that his opinion is likely valued by Smith. The organization has never been one to infuse new blood from the players to management. They've never enough to bring in players from outside of the organization, and they're much less inclined to trade our prospects. All they ever do is promote coaches and management from within the organization.
There are just too many issues with the team, and I think a season like this one all but assures Smith will be gone if next season isn't a success. The Pohlad's only care about money (to the extent of being pro-contraction).
Just watching games this season and their low attendance numbers this soon into Target Field makes think he's on borrowed time if this ship doesn't turn around. With the all the injuries, most any other GM of a team "in contention" should have led to trades, and he sat on his hands and waited to trade Delmon Young for a carton of apples and Thome for 20k.
Just why should the Twins change their way of doing things? Because of a down year fueled by injuries? Because they haven't done well during the crapshoot of the post season playoffs? Because some bloggers believe advanced metrics mean something?
Actually the Twins have done extremely well during the last decade. They have some young talent nearly ready to help at the majors. They have some very young, very inpressive young talent at the low levels of the minors(thanks in part to the influx of cash from the new stadium). They still have a rather impressive core group of talent at the major league level, if they can get and stay healthy.
So lets blow up the group that has assembled all that and bring somebody new (he better understand advanced metrics) so he can take advantage of what these guys have built.
All the blogosphere and commenters will blither on and on about saber-metrics even more now that this movie is in theaters.
It'll pass to a small extent, but I'm wondering how all these people who claim the Twins NEVER use or DON'T use advanced statistics are getting their information?
It'll pass to a small extent, but I'm wondering how all these people who claim the Twins NEVER use or DON'T use advanced statistics are getting their information?
I'm too lazy to look it up, but I remember an interview with Rob Antony (last summer?) in which he could not provide a definition for BABIP, and sort of scoffed at the idea that advanced statistics are valuable in any way.
I think it's safe to say that rightly or wrongly, the Twins as an organization pay little or no attention to advanced statistics.
http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/03/twins-and-statistical-analysis.html
RE: above post
A March 2010 interview with Antony. From another blog, not sure if Nick wants if ref'd here.
Discussion centered around the Twins finally hiring "a statistics guy." Antony couldn't break out simple terms like FIP, BABIP etc. Not only didn't know how to use them, or if the team liked them, he didn't even know what they stand for.
I haven't agreed with many of the moves Smith has made, but a lot of it is the fact that he's made MORE moves than Ryan did. You didn't mention Pavano, Rauch, Fuentes, (trading for) Hardy, Hudson, or Thome. Where TR would sit on his hands when the team was in a position where other teams would make moves, Smith has taken a chance. I wouldn't lose any sleep if Smith stepped down though. I think no moves would have been better than the collective moves Smith made.
Chief, if Antony "scoffed at the idea that advanced statistics are valuable in any way", then why would they hire someone to analyze advanced statistics? I guess I wouldn't expect to see a fair characterization of the front office in the comments section of a blog though.
Like I said, I wouldn't mind seeing Smith gone, but I think it would be reasonable to wait for two consecutive seasons where the Twins don't make the playoffs before proclaiming that they're doing everything fundamentally wrong.
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