Webb, Jeff Francis & Chris Young attracting interest as comeback bets on 1-yr deals. Webb a potential fallback for Twins if Pavano leavesIf Crasnick has his sources straight, then this appears to be one of those decreasingly rare instances in which I find myself on the same wavelength as the Twins brass. Webb is shaping up to be a guy worth taking a flier on, but only under the right circumstances.
Back in January of 2009, the Indians signed free agent Carl Pavano, who had pitched only 45 innings over the prior three seasons combined, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million plus incentives. I loved the move from afar, opining that it was "what a low-risk veteran signing should look like." Pavano, once considered an elite starter, had been an epic free agent bust with the Yankees and needed to rectify his image. The Indians had a million and a half bucks to gamble on him.
As it turned out, the deal worked out well for both sides. Pavano scooted past his incentive milestones, tacking onto his salary significantly while setting himself up to earn far more in the ensuing years. The Indians and Twins, meanwhile, got 200 innings of solid veteran performance.
Webb is not so far removed from his prime years, and during them he was a better pitcher than Pavano ever has been. In 2006, Webb captured the NL Cy Young by going 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA over 235 innings for the Diamondbacks. He finished second in the Cy Young voting in both 2007 and 2008.
On Opening Day of the 2009 season, Webb left after four innings due to soreness in his right shoulder. A few months later, he'd go under the knife, costing him the rest of his '09 season and all of 2010. Now, Webb is set to become a free agent and he's a major wild card. The right-hander reported that his fastball was only touching 81-83 mph in early October, but that's a long way from spring training and Webb was never a fireballer (during his best years, his heater only averaged 88 mph).
On a Pavano-type deal, Webb would almost certainly be a worthwhile investment. However, it's possible that the former Diamondback will have higher demands. He and his agent could seek a deal more similar to the one Ben Sheets inked with the A's last offseason. Sheets, who'd not pitched since 2008 due to his own shoulder issues, signed a one-year contract that guaranteed $10 million and contained $2 million in incentives.
That deal busted, as Sheets was thoroughly mediocre over 20 starts before suffering another major shoulder injury that will probably signify the end of his career. With this example fresh in mind, it's unlikely that any general manager will throw eight figures at Webb, but he could seek a one-year deal similar to the ones fellow injury concerns Rich Harden ($6.5 million plus incentives) and Brad Penny ($7.5 million plus incentives) signed prior to this season.
The nice thing for the Twins is that they have enough depth to take a gamble on Webb. They already have five potentially capable starters in Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing. Beyond that stable, they've got top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
If Webb fizzles, the Twins can probably sustain it from a competitive standpoint. The question is how much it would hurt them financially. He is still only 31 years old and prior to his injury he was one of baseball's premier workhorses, but no one can know what to expect in his first season back. I don't know exactly how much the Twins' payroll is going to increase this year and maybe they can afford to gamble at high stakes on Webb, but if he's demanding an amount that would severely restrict their other offseason moves, they'd have to be very confident his shoulder is good to go.
31 comments:
I like the idea of signing Webb because I don't have confidence in the following:
- Deunsing is for real.
- Baker will be good for the whole season.
- Slowey will be healthy for the whole season.
- Blackburn will spend the whole season in the majors.
- Gibson is ready for the majors.
- Manship or Swarzak will ever be ready for the majors.
Webb has his own questions but hopefully with enough questions we will have some answers.
Jesse, even if we sign Webb and any combo of two of your worries come true we will be in trouble. If Webb would sign for anything over 2 mil I would say no and spend the $ on a RH bat.
I'd rather that he'd missed two years with Tommy John surgery than shoulder surgery. There's a chance that Webb is completely used up.
There is a definate chance Webb is all used up. Thats why its a gamble. But on the other side of the coin is a pitcher who is not far removed from a cy young in a very hitter friendly ballpark.
If Webb does want more guaranteed, I would be wary. But 3 mil + 6 mil in incentives would be a steal, and I would even do 5 mil + incentives. The Sheets deal is out of the question.
I have actually been thinking more about young right now. He is less high profile and pitched surprisingly well in the games he had at the end of the season. He clearly still has the stuff, but was he ever really that great? Any pitcher coming out of PetCo is suspect in my mind. The only thing that eases that blow is that the one thing that helped Young so much at PetCo, the tendencies for fly balls to shrivel into raisins in the San Diego breeze, will be the same at Target field. Actually, Target field may even be better as it doesn't have as huge an outfield to patrol with the same fly killing potential. (On second thought, any outfield with Kubel/Cuddy/Delmon may as well be 800' wide with their range)
Dunslinger is for real. Baker can be good for 4-5 innings. Slowey is streaky and so is Blackburn. Frankie needs to realize how dominant he is. Letting Santana (big brother) go was dumb. He would have been good for Frankie.
Offer Carl. Take the draft picks.
I see on twitter your still making the payroll excuse for the twins. hilarious. what was the texas payroll? what were the payrolls of the 6 other teams to beat the yankees in the playoffs during gardy's tenure? the rays beat them in the east this yr, what was there payroll? you just dont seem to get it, payroll aint the issue.
what was the texas payroll? what were the payrolls of the 6 other teams to beat the yankees in the playoffs during gardy's tenure? the rays beat them in the east this yr, what was there payroll? you just dont seem to get it, payroll aint the issue.
How many times have the Rays won the East over the Yankees in the past 20 years?
Payroll advantage doesn't guarantee anything, but it's clearly an advantage. That's not disputable.
I like it better than Ramon Ortiz/Sidney Ponson/Livan Hernandez any and every day of the week.
That being said, offer Carl arbitration, take the picks, and make an honest run at one of the reclamation projects, making sure not to offer too much and look like a fool if they fizzle out.
But really, I think the "veteran presence" bit is overrated. If you're not calling Slowey/Blackburn/Baker/Liriano "veterans" than you've got other problems. Those guys have been up enough that they should know how to pitch like veterans by now, for pete's sake. Bring a guy in who you think will be GOOD, not a guy just for the sake of "veteran presence."
"How many times have the Rays won the East over the Yankees in the past 20 years?"
way to completely avoid the facts and throw out the most meaningless question imaginable considering the rays havent even existed for 20 years. way to
"Payroll advantage doesn't guarantee anything, but it's clearly an advantage. That's not disputable."
right, the yanks have parlayed that advantage to a 3-7 playoff record against teams other than the twins during gardys tenure as manager. thats a winning percentage of .300, what a terrific advantage. the yanks have bought as many world series during gardys time as anahiem, florida, st louis, chicago, san fran, philly. do you want me to keep going? face it, the rest of the league has had no problem with the yanks payroll. its a lazy, lazy, lazy excuse people use when they want to feel better about the twins pathetic performances.
ill concede this: its an advantage when your looking for ways to make excuses for the twins. you dont have to look at anything else, just spout the payroll numbers and thats it. when you actually look at how other organizations have performed against the seemingly insurmountable payroll gaps, though, it becomes indisputably clear that payroll has little to do with playoff success.
Funny how 3-7 is obviously Chilly's fault but 6-21 has absolutely nothing to do with Gardy.
Looks like there are different standards of accountability amongst the local sports teams.
Dave's taken, get your own name!!
If Chilli got to the playoffs more often then not and beat the packers consistantly I would have no problem with him. We could never sniff a playoff win and I would laud him with praise. Problem is that in football, coaches do call the plays and your worth shows directly on the field every week. Chilli has zero football acumen and therefore we will never achieve my two requirements for praise.
Gardy has consistantly competed with the white sox and has gone to the playoffs more then his team deserved.
And where did that forum troll come from? Its one thing to be a troll, its completely different to revive a dead thread over a tweet and be a johny come lately troll.
So last year when Chilly made the NFC title game and beat the Pack twice he did have a lot of football acumen, but now he's lost that acumen?
Apparently the words "more often than not" and "consistently" are not in your vocabulary. As is the case with most major languages, failure to read the entire sentence and incorporate every word into your understanding can lead to embarrassing gaps in comprehension.
Chilli Dog was 3-7 against the Pack. Hmm, that probably doesn’t fulfill my expectations for “consistently”. Chilli made the playoffs twice out of five tries. It’s not an issue of whether it fulfills my expectation; by definition two is not more than three.
Almighty Dave, I understand your point, thank you for the insults too, it really strengthens your credibility. It's just humorous to me that in Chilly's case, people say the Vikings succeeded last year DESPITE him; with Gardy, the regular season success is BECAUSE of him. Just illustrates the hypocrisy of MN sports fans.
I have gone on record saying that I don’t like how Gardy manages. I merely stand by my assertion that he is not the reason that the Twins fail in the post season. I form my opinions based on statistics and quantifiable attributes.
Statistics compiled in a small sample size are unreliable. Statistics compiled in a large sample size are proportionally more compelling. That is how I dismiss the contention that Gardy’s post season W/L record indicates that he is the problem as his overall W/L record is superb.
I don’t like many of the quantifiable things that Gardy does. He handles bullpens inefficiently and ineffectively, and doesn’t utilize substitutions the way I would like him to. Of these quantifiable negative attributes that Gardy has, he displayed none of them in the playoffs. In addition to this, nobody has shown any positive quantifiable attribute that Gardy failed to employ. That is why I dismiss the contention that Gardy fails to possess some attribute that is necessary to win post season games.
I find nothing more insulting than when someone mischaracterizes my opinions in order to get a cheap “gotcha” moment. You get no sympathy for my cuts.
way to completely avoid the facts and throw out the most meaningless question imaginable considering the rays havent even existed for 20 years.
Point is, the Yankees have won that division -- consistently the best division in baseball -- nearly every year, which is a function of the fact that they have the highest payroll and the best players.
ill concede this: its an advantage when your looking for ways to make excuses for the twins. you dont have to look at anything else, just spout the payroll numbers and thats it.
I don't feel the need to "make excuses" for the team's postseason failures. Good teams face good teams in the playoffs and in every series one team has to lose. All I said in the Twitter comment you are referring to is that the Yankees have always had an inherent advantage over the Twins because they have significantly more money to spend on experienced talent and thus they have more experienced talent. That's not an opinion, it's a fact.
If you want to continue to propose the existence of some persisting phantom flaw that has caused the Twins to lose in the playoffs with very differently comprised rosters and under very different circumstances, you go ahead, but I'm tired of that conversation.
Looks like there are different standards of accountability amongst the local sports teams.
If you don't recognize the vast difference in the influence a head football coach and a baseball manager can have on the outcome of individual games, I don't know what to tell you.
It's just humorous to me that in Chilly's case, people say the Vikings succeeded last year DESPITE him; with Gardy, the regular season success is BECAUSE of him.
Gardenhire has never had a team that was as transcendently talented as the 2009 Vikings. He's also never had a team that underperformed as miserably as the 2010 Vikings.
Since we're now talking coaches, it's simple to me.
Great players make great coaches. In any sport. No matter what.
As for managing egos and personalities, well, that's where Chilly failed and possibly Gardy come post season time (the latter comment is debatable, but we can all agree that Chilly did a horrible job of managing player personalities).
I'll always be of the belief that coaches get too much glory for success and too much critisism for failure.
To take it one step further, Matt, fans in this town love "nice guys" (Gardy) and loathe "jerks" (Chilly) much more than they care about managing prowess/skill. If nice guys fail, it's okay, they're nice guys. If jerks succeed, well, their team was just "transcendently talented". You're right, too much emphasis is placed on the coaches, it's just funny that so many people calling for Chilly's head would defend Gardy til the day they die.
Just win, baby. Chilly wasn't getting it done this year, Gardy can't do it every year in the playoffs.
Dave Said, go away
If jerks succeed, well, their team was just "transcendently talented".
Are you claiming that's not an objective statement? The Vikings had eight Pro Bowlers last year, they were clearly the the most talented team in the NFC and they played like it in the conference title game, despite losing.
I couldn't care less about Childress being a jerk except for that it makes his players dislike him and this creates drama. A coach has to be liked by the players or he has to be a great tactician, you can't be neither.
The Vikes are nearly the same exact team this year, though. You're giving credit to the players for a successful 09, and scapegoating the coach for a poor 10. This is the exact opposite of how you evaluate Gardy: he deserves praise for "not getting it the way" of regular season success, but its always the players' fault in the playoffs.
And how is it "objective" to call a team "transcendent"? What's the scientific formula for determining when a team is so good they "transcend" their inferior coach? Or is it your subjective opinion that the team succeeded despite the efforts of their poor coach?
If it is for a reasonable price (1 year around $3 million - $4 million) I am all for taking the chance. I know there have been the Ponsons in the past but Pavano was also a gamble. Webb is a former Cy Young award winner who would do GREAT in Target Field IMO.
If he is looking for 2010 Sheets money...no thank you. If he can be had on a one year deal that works for the Twins then by all means Bill Smith please give it a shot. This of course, gives even more reason to keep Hardy. Webb is a ground ball pitcher that would benefit from having Hardy at SS. Will be interesting to see what happens. Great post Nick!!
The Vikes are nearly the same exact team this year, though. You're giving credit to the players for a successful 09, and scapegoating the coach for a poor 10. This is the exact opposite of how you evaluate Gardy: he deserves praise for "not getting it the way" of regular season success, but its always the players' fault in the playoffs.
Childress is the head coach and chief of personnel for the Vikings. He essentially put the team together according to his own specifications, has a hand in all trades and signings, draws up the game plan, and is given a week to prepare his players and coaches for every game. I don't understand why it's so difficult to comprehend the notion that a man in Childress' position has a lot more relative influence the outcome of a season and a playoff game/series than Gardenhire.
Gardenhire did not put the team together. He's not responsible for their vulnerability to left-handed pitching, or any other weaknesses that were exposed by a better team in that series. All he can do is take the players he's given, put them in position to succeed and hope they do.
Day after day, I have different people in these comments sections vaguely pointing to something Gardenhire's doing wrong but NOBODY can specify what it is without resorting to ridiculous baseball cliches about a contagious lack of mental toughness. I'm at the end of my wit with this debate.
Nick, I agree about the frustration over the Gardy haters. I'm middle of the road on this one. I do belive he has lots of pull in deciding who is on the 25 man and he is the one who makes out the lineup card. Chilly had an O line, D line, Backs & receivers, special teams and other coaches to help him out. And in the end the players need to perform. Most of us have the knowledge nessesary to manage a game. Very few of us would succeed w/out the experience that a guy like Gardy brings. Definately a gray area here. Manager of the Year is over rated just like gold gloves.
I don't hate Gardy. I just wish that the powers that be would acknowledge that the guy needs to improve in the playoffs. Don't know what he's doing wrong because that stuff happens behind the scenes. But the results speak for themselves. But the fans and media in this town are so in love with lovable Gardy that they give him a complete pass for being statistically one of the worst postseason managers in playoff history. By ignoring the problem you're doomed to repeat it. I'm at my wits end over the playoff embarrassments, but nobody else really seems to care. That's why it's frustrating as a fan. Sorry for hijacking the thread, I'll stop now.
I'm at my wits end over the playoff embarrassments, but nobody else really seems to care.
Hey, don't get me wrong. I'm every bit as frustrated as you with the postseason ineptitude. But it's the team that's failing in the playoffs, not the manager.
"But it's the team that's failing in the playoffs, not the manager."
I used to tell myself that too. But 12 straight losses with different players, stadiums, opponents, etc. can't be coincidence. It just can't be.
I used to tell myself that too. But 12 straight losses with different players, stadiums, opponents, etc. can't be coincidence. It just can't be.
Well it's not all coincidence. The Twins have generally been playing better teams, so the odds aren't 50/50, and you can't deny they've been victimized by some extraordinarily bad luck (Koskie ground-rule double, Cuzzi call, Granderson hitting a LHP for once in his lifetime, etc).
Oh so Granderson smoking an absolute meatball up in the zone is luck? What about the missed call the Twins got in the 9th of Game 1 on Delmon's "hit"? The difference is Twins don't capitalize on good luck and feel sorry for themselves about bad luck. The Cuzzi/Koskie plays did not end the game; the club had plenty of chances after that and failed.
What about the '06 Twins? They were the better team, had homefield, came in to the playoffs scalding hot, and still got swept.
I'll give you the 09 Yanks were much better. Other than that, I don't buy into the "better team" mantra at all, because other than 09 the Yanks won exactly 1 series against a team other than the Twins. The 06 A's (the really average team the Twins apologists conveniently forget all about) were swept in the ALCS by a team the Twins beat out in the regular season. So, sorry, you'll have to do better than "luck" and "better team".
Not only have they lost that many playoff games in a row to the yankees, but they were leading in most of them. they just always seem to choke it away.
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