In a multitude of different ways, John Lannan is a very similar player to Nick Blackburn. The former, a starter for the Nationals, throws left-handed while Blackburn throws from the right side, but in spite of that disparity the two have followed startlingly similar career paths.
Both pitchers made brief big-league debuts in 2007 before becoming full-time starters for their respective clubs in 2008. Both proved to be workhorses in their first two big-league seasons, making 30-plus starts and averaging about 200 innings between the 2008 and 2009 campaigns. Most importantly for the purposes of this article, both were able to rise above rather unimpressive strikeout rates to post very respectable overall numbers during those first two seasons.
In 2008, Lannan went 9-15 with a 3.91 ERA over 182 innings despite a 5.8 K/9IP rate that fell well below the league average. That same year, Blackburn went 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA over 193 1/3 innings despite a 4.5 K/9IP rate that was even further below average.
In 2009, Lannan went 9-13 with a 3.88 ERA over 206 1/3 innings despite a 3.9 K/9IP rate. In Minnesota, Blackburn went 11-11 once again with a 4.03 ERA despite a 4.3 K/9IP rate.
Both pitchers were impressively managing to rack up quality innings despite their elevated contact rates. This year, however, they both have seen their already sub par strikeout rates drop through the floor, and it's no coincidence that both pitchers are seeing their overall performance plummet.
Blackburn and Lannan have been almost identical in their inability to throw the ball past hitters this year. Their K/9IP rates are 2.84 and 2.88, making them the only qualifying pitchers in all of the majors with rates below 3. They've both struck out about 7 percent of the total batters they've faced after striking out 11 percent in their first two seasons.
The results speak for themselves, and boy are they similar:
Blackburn, 2010: 76 IP, 5.80 ERA, 1.63 ERA, .337 BAA
Lannan, 2010: 75 IP, 5.76 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .327 BAA
Blackburn possesses better control, but Lannan offsets that with a higher ground ball rate. Overall, these two have basically been the same pitcher all year long.
Yesterday, the last-place Nationals demoted Lannan to Double-A.
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14 comments:
Let's hope Blackie can get in one of his groves where's he's good for a couple of starts in a row. He's not been good. The Twins took on a lot of risk signing him to his extension this past of season given his peripherals. Hot streak or not, that looks like a poor decision.
Very poor decision to sign Blackburn, but only in hindsight. Clubs like the Twins are going to sign almost any semi-promising young pitcher, especially one that had showed up in a big game here or there.
Now, if they demote him they're going to be paying too much for a minor leaguer. Even worse, he gives them nearly zero bullpen value.
He may end up as a journeyman in the bigs, as a spot starter and long reliever brought in only as necessary.
The Twins aren't going to give up on Blackburn yet, but it's not impossible to think that they'd send him to Rochester or New Britain if this keeps up.
From day one, I was critical of the twins signing blackie. What was the rush to sign him, when you have him for 4 more years? Plus his career path is projected to be similar to Carlos Silva.
When teams bat over .300 against you will give up lots of runs.
What we know about Blackburn is that he is not a true "ground ball pitcher." He rates out slightly above average in his ground ball rate.
If teams are going to have that kind of batting average, you have to be an extreme ground ball pitcher.
I am not saying Blackburn is terrible, but he is a 5th starter, 4th at best, which means he is replaceable.
We shouldn't have signed him.
It really doesn't make a difference if they signed him or not. He would have been with the Twins and probably making similar money anyway. The Twins didn't ever cut Silva, and they wouldn't have cut Blackburn had he not been signed to the long term deal. They made an offer to Silva before he left for Seattle.
Blackburn was spectacular in the month of May. He was given time off for "personal reasons" and missed a start (never knew what the reasons were). Anyway, when he came back to the team, he nearly won AL pitcher of the month in May. If we aren't going to do anything with him - then I suggest we give him some more "personal time" off. With the way he has pitched this month (and in April) it can absolutely do no harm.
To poster #2, who says signing Blackburn was only a poor decision in hindsight: Apparently you don't read this blog much.
Both Nick and Aaron Gleeman (probably the other most prominent Twins blogger) said it was a high risk, low upside gamble at the time of the signing; i.e. a bad idea. He was still under Twins control for 4 years, though they would have to go through arbitration during that.
Instead they gave him relatively big money on the front end. Now his concerning peripheral stats are producing predictably bad results.
The other anonymous commentor is right in that he'd still have a place in this rotation this year, regardless of the deal. But it's still a bad allocation of resources going forward.
I was quite impressed with Duensing down the stretch last year, and he's looked good in the bullpen thus far. If Blackburn keeps this streak of torrid play up, I wouldn't mind seeing them flip roles on the pitching staff.
Signing Blackburn long term was like Joe Mays, in a way. Mays had more upside, so the Twins were worried that if he had another 17 win season, his price would go up. Still, they didn't have to pay him when they did, and it didn't work out due to a bum elbow...
With Blackburn, there was less upside. Mays could, at times, dominate and be overpowering with his movement. Blackburn has never had overpowering movement. Even when his sinker is "going," they have to "hit it at 'em" or he's in a pickle. A few balls that make their way through the infield in the same inning can be big trouble.
If he can somehow find an out pitch to get a few more K's, he'll come around. Otherwise, I'm going to be nervous when ever he's on the mound.
Of course, one could point out that Lannan has walked double the batters that Blackburn has this year (4.20 to 2.25) and almost that throughout their careers (3.47 to 1.87), giving Lannan a much lower K/BB season and career (.84 to 1.24, 1.25 to 2.24) but the point of your post was just to rip on Blackburn, right? Well done.
Of course, one could point out that Lannan has walked double the batters that Blackburn has this year (4.20 to 2.25) and almost that throughout their careers (3.47 to 1.87), giving Lannan a much lower K/BB season and career (.84 to 1.24, 1.25 to 2.24) but the point of your post was just to rip on Blackburn, right? Well done.
I mentioned Blackburn's superior control. I also mentioned that it's offset to some degree by the fact that Lannan has induced ground balls on at least 50 percent of balls in play every year he's been in the majors(including this year), consistently ranking among the league's better pitchers in this category. Blackburn's middling 46.2 percent rate this year would rank as a career high.
Opposing hitters are also slugging .538 off Blackburn with 12 home runs, as opposed to .462 with 7 HR off Lannan. One could argue that 16 additional walks would be preferable to leaving the ball out over the plate to get crushed constantly.
Aw shit, Tony in Eagan. If this comment thread was made into a movie, it'd be called "You Got Served."
Aw shit, Tony in Eagan. If this comment thread was made into a movie, it'd be called "You Got Served."
And your character would be played by Carlos Mencia.
Only if read while doing a poor impersonation of a person with Down Syndrome and gratuitous use of the word "Beaner."
What a revelation!
J. Rankin
Whether you want to prove a point, or disprove someone else's, there's a stat out there to help you.
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