Last June, some friends and I made a baseball road trip and one of our stops was St. Louis to see the Twins play the Cardinals in a Saturday afternoon contest. It was a sweltering hot day, with a heat index well over 100 degrees, and the sweat soaking into our clothes subtracted somewhat from our enjoyment of the beautiful Busch Stadium. Perhaps the most uncomfortable aspect of the day, though, was watching Kevin Slowey struggle against the Cards lineup.
Slowey had entered the game on a roll, having posted a Quality Start in seven of his past eight outings while starting to look like a top-of-the-rotation stalwart. Yet, in his last turn he'd issued four walks -- most since his fourth major-league start back in 2007 -- and on this day something was clearly amiss. Slowey, who typically places all his pitches with exceptional precision, was missing his spots often and offering up far too many hittable pitches. He needed 58 pitches to get through three innings, during which he allowed six hits, including a pair of homers to Albert Pujols. Ron Gardenhire did not send Slowey out for the fourth. The right-hander would go on to make one more start, another three-inning dud against the Tigers, and then his season was done. After an unsuccessful rehab stint, Slowey underwent wrist surgery in early August, seeking to finally solve a problem that had been bothering him since he was hit by a line drive late in the '08 season, and began planning his return for the 2009 season.
The Twins' rotation struggled to replace Slowey's production until the team traded for Carl Pavano, who essentially performed like a Slowey clone following his arrival. Now, the hope is that the Twins' rotation can flourish with both Pavano and Slowey present to complement Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and whoever ends up in the fifth slot. With a well constructed lineup and a relatively deep bullpen, the Twins seem poised for success this year but the rotation remains a concern and much depends on Slowey's ability to prove that his wrist is completely healed. Despite the lengthy recovery time, that isn't a given.
Gardenhire mentioned in January that Slowey had experienced some swelling in that right wrist during the offseason. The team, naturally, downplayed the magnitude of this concern but we all know how these things can go. Should Slowey's wrist continue to be a problem, not only would it take away one of the club's only pitchers realistically capable of blossoming a legitimate frontline starter, it could force them to lean on unproven players like Anthony Swarzak and Jeff Manship in his stead.
If Slowey's wrist is fully healed, he's a prime candidate for a breakout year. His career MLB numbers up to this point are hardly overwhelming, but he's only 25 and is reaching the point in his career where many younger pitchers turn the corner. Slowey combines elite command with a legitimate ability to miss bats, a combination which led to incredible success during his minor-league career. If he can cut down on the hits allowed and make that recipe work a little better in the majors, there's no reason he can't build upon the success he found in 2008 and turn into one of the American League's better starting pitchers.
5 comments:
Hopefully Slowey comes back stronger then ever. Our starting pitching needs to improve for us to make a run in the post season
My question to you would still be what kind of upside is there to a starting pitcher who averages 89 or so miles per hour on his fastball and is below average (at least per Fangraphs) with every other pitch have?
Yes, I know the answer is look at Slowey's K/BB and how well it compares to Zack Greinke. But at what point do we need to take notice of the fact that his stuff is a dead mark for what Rick Reed operated with?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=750&position=P
My answer would be that at some point you have to stop looking strictly at his stuff and start looking at his results. Regardless of how similar their pitch speeds were, Reed was never striking out 7.4 batters per nine innings, as Slowey was last year. Reed also didn't strike out a batter per inning with a 1.94 ERA in the minors. For that matter, neither did Greinke.
"Regardless of how similar their pitch speeds were"
It's more than pitch speed. It's percentage of fastballs thrown and the overall complete incompentence of the secondary pitches. And remember, the average K/9 in the American League is way up over the course last few years, so comparing K/9 rates staight isn't a fair comparison.
I really don't buy Slowey as a breakout candidate. I do buy that he can get back to where he was in 2008, though.
I don't understand why you use pitch speed for fastball, then fangraphs values for the other pitches. The fact is his fastball has been quite a ways above average while only being 89 mph. It is obvious that his fastball is a good one because he locates it so well.
If he can be more consistent with his offspeed pitches (control of them has been the biggest issue, IMO) he definitely looks like a #2 pitcher. If he doesn't, then he's still above average.
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