Haven't gotten a post in since Monday, so let's touch on the past week's developments quickly...
* The BBWAA has pleasantly surprised me this week by electing deserving winners for both league's Cy Young Awards, uncharacteristically looking past relatively unimpressive win totals and awarding Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum for their fantastic bodies of work in the '09 season.
Greinke, who had a historically great season, was the clear-cut class of the AL this year, and any concerns that the voters would lean toward the gaudier win totals of less deserving candidates like Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander or CC Sabathia were erased when Greinke captured all but three first-place votes and won in a landslide. The NL picture was a bit less clear, and I was pretty torn between Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, but ultimately Linecum's huge strikeout totals and 2.48 ERA caused voters to overlook his weak 15-7 record. Adam Wainwright, who looked to many like the presumptive winner due to his league-leading totals in wins and innings pitched, surprisingly finished third.
With the quality selections in these categories, the much maligned BBWAA is starting to build up some good will among modern-thinking baseball analysts and fans everywhere. Of course, that could all be erased if Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols aren't announced as MVPs next week.
* Results for this year's Manager of the Year voting were also announced this week, and on the AL side, Ron Gardenhire finished just behind winner Mike Scioscia to notch his fifth second-place finish in eight years as Twins manager (there's also a third-place finish mixed in there). When pondering Gardenhire's candidacy for this award in late October, my conclusion was as follows: "I don't know if Gardenhire excelled more than any other American League manager this year -- Mike Scioscia and Ron Washington both did excellent work -- but he certainly deserves to be one of the front-runners for the Manager of the Year award." So, obviously I think Scioscia was a deserving candidate and I'm happy he won. The fact that Gardenhire recorded his sixth top-three finish in eight seasons since becoming Twins manager, though, only strengthens my perception that he is viewed much more highly around the country and around the league than he is here in Minnesota, and that he's probably a better manager than a lot of local fans give him credit for.
* Thrylos98, who authors the Tenth Inning Stretch blog, has been claiming on his Twitter account to have inside info on a developing blockbuster deal between the Twins and Marlins that will bring Dan Uggla and Ricky Nolasco to Minnesota.
Around the end of the regular season, Thrylos made a vague mention of a major move on the imminent horizon for the Twins, and after the J.J. Hardy trade was completed he claimed that this was the move he'd been referring to all along. Of course, that statement doesn't really jive with reports that the Twins started talks with the Brewers only 10 days before the Hardy trade was consummated, so you can color me skeptical. There's no way in the world I believe the Twins have the pieces (that they'd be willing to move, anyway) to reel in a marquis package like Uggla and Nolasco, but if such a swap actually goes down, I'll officially start referring to Thrylos by the nickname "Scoop."
* On Tuesday night, Seth Stohs had third base prospect Danny Valencia as a guest on his weekly podcast. An amusing moment came midway through the interview when Valencia took an opportunity to call out one of his harshest online critics.
"That guy, I don't know his name, he goes by TT," said Valencia. "It just seems like he doesn't like me, it's kind of unfair, but you know I guess it comes with what we do. TT, if I can make you like me man, let me know if I can get you on my side. I hate to read all the bad things you say about me, but we'll see what we can do."
Readers of this blog might recognize that name, as TT frequently engages in lengthy debates in the comments section here and also runs his own blog, Granny Baseball. I found the quoted portion of Seth's interview quite humorous given that I've always felt that TT has been far too critical of Valencia without any legitimate reason. In fact, just this week, when making his recommendations for additions to the Twins' 40-man roster on his blog, TT astonishingly skipped over Valencia while pointing out that the Twins seem high on the third baseman "despite his struggles at AAA last year." That seems like a rather absurd spin on a 758 OPS in a 24-year-old's first stint at the Triple-A level, and of course it's not difficult for any objective observer to see why the Twins are high on Valencia given his .299/.354/.480 hitting line in the minors and the relatively success he has experienced at every level, but it's hardly surprising to read that from TT.
Perhaps a personal appeal from the player himself will soften our friend's stance on Valencia. Somehow I doubt it.
By the way, make sure to check out Seth's podcast from Tuesday night here if you haven't had a chance. Aside from the interview with Valencia, who comes off as a real good kid, Seth also chatted with Steve Singleton, who just yesterday finished up a solid run in the Arizona Fall League.
* Finally, when you get a chance, make sure to check out the newest promising blog dedicated to the Twins and Minnesota sports at large, Undomed.
Friday, November 20, 2009
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13 comments:
Wow, thrylos is really trying to get me to not do my homework tonight.
Nolasco and Uggla, obviously would be a spectacular package. Nolasco has the makings of an ace. Uggla is obviously no slouch himself. Our lineup would be up there with the Yankees, and the rotation not far behind. All this is assuming, of course, that we aren't trading back much major league talent.
What would it take to get those guys? I don't think Uggla would be too expensive in terms of prospects, because if his production drops at all, he'll be over paid next year. I think a couple of decent prospects would be enough for him. Nolasco, on the other hand is a cheap pitcher who is all ready very good and looks like he could be an ace. Between the two, I have to think we'd have to completely clean the shelves to make this happen.
I'm not very good with this type of thing, but I'd guess it would take a couple of guys in the Swarzak/Perkins category, a couple in the Revere/Ramos category, and maybe some throw ins (Casilla/tolbert). This has the makings of a move that would put us in the cellar of the division in 5 years. If it did happen, I'd expect Detroit to go the other direction (they've been on the fringe) and have a fire sale. Chicago probably the same. We'd be far and away the best team in the division for a few years, but wouldn't have the talent coming through the system to compete in 2015.
Anyway, while this is almost definitely much ado about nothing, I thought it would be fun to plug Nolasco and Uggla into my spreadsheet. As we stand I have us at 89 wins. This is probably too high, because as much as I try to account for injury when portioning playing time, I'm probably not doing it enough. Anyway, with Uggla and Nolasco, that number is 96. Pretty unrealistic to predict a team to win 96 games. That would mean they have like a 40% chance of winning 100 games. But who knows, maybe that's true. Anyway, while that number is probably too high, I think the difference between the two (7 wins) is close to accurate. Again, this is assuming we don't give up much in the way of major league talent.
Anyway, this is almost surely all for nothing, but its fun to talk about someone other than Crede and Washburn for a while.
There is a reason why guys like Danny Valencia don't get selected in the Rule 5 draft... because teams protect guys like that on their 40 man rosters!
Great stuff as always, Nick!
isn't it sad that we are surprised when the voters make a good decision for a postseason award?
More deals (potentially) being struck with NL teams ... If Bill Smith is content to deal current players for guys who will be well below average for the AL, why not just promote from within? It'd be cheaper and at least there's a chance a guy develops into something.
But this trade seems very unlikely to go through. There are just too many teams in the mix who historically overpay for mediocre pitching (Milwaukee) for the Twins to end up with Nolasco.
Uggla, maybe. But come on. Why?
I guess I should have given more than one team. Aside from the Brewers, the Mets and the Cubs are rumored to be intersted in Nolasco. Hopefully one of them gets him and Mr. Smith can focus his efforts on more making more fruitful transactions.
And as for Uggla -- OK, Uggla has some power. Fine. But he can barely crack a .250 batting average in the NL. Which means that would plummet once he came to Minnesota. OK, he finds his way on base. But, once again, that all changes once he faces more talented pitchers. And his UZR was a -9.6.
So he can't hit for average, he can't field and he is unlikely to be able to continue his high-.400s OBP after switching leagues.
I guess all-of-a-sudden, power is everything in the Twins front office.
thrylos is a smuck. he gives vague predictions such as "a trade is coming soon" or "the twins will claim someone on waivers."
i have a prediction, the twins will sign a free agent. you can call me tostitos scoops.
Nolasco sounds like exactly what we need. Uggla sounds like the bad contract throw-in you often get in NBA trades. Uggla = Blount?
Uggla is a controllable second baseman who has basically been good for 30 HR, 90 RBI, 800+ OPS every year he's been in the league. I'm failing to understand why everyone seems to think he's such a detriment.
I'm surprised at peoples reaction to Uggla. He'd be the best 2nd basemen in a Twins uniform in a long time. I agree this deal is almost certainly BS but damn, I'd be a happy with any trade that netted a postive OPS+ at 2B and nothing else. Throw in a legitimate starting pitcher and I'm pretty excited.
get nolasco and have uggla at 2nd or continue with our pitching staff plus probably jarrod washburn and have orlando cabrera at 2nd. while the nolasco/uggla deal might not look the best right now, but if it keeps guys like washburn and cabrera off the team, everyone will like it much better. i am all for it. it probably won't happen though.
Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at AAA at the same age as Valencia: .293 .353 .427
Of course, Tolbert was playing in the middle infield then, not third base. He also only committed 13 errors in over 500 chances in a full season. Valencia committed 12 in 165 chances. Apparently the field that Valencia complains about wasn't a problem for Tolbert who only 3 errors with the same number of chances this year.
But the larger problem with talking about Valencia's numbers in the context of "his first stint at AAA", is that Valencia actually started AAA red hot. He didn't struggle, adjust and get better. The league apparently adjusted and he couldn't. The last half of the season he hit .258 .279 .407. Combined with his defense, I would call that struggling.
TT -
How about you look at Justin Morneau? He is always red hot, unable to get out, in the first half. Then he starts to falter after the all-star break and usually ends up hitting sub .200 in september. Everybody hits a slump and Morneau has been in the Majors a long time. I do not see you trying to trade Morneau or release him from the Twins roster.
Lets not jump on Valencia simply because he did not do as well in the second half as he did in the first half.
"Here is Matt Tolbert's line in his first year at AAA at the same age as Valencia: .293 .353 .427"
Maybe. But trying to compare a third baseman with a career minor league OPS of .834 to a utility guy who's career minor league OPS is 90 points lower doesn't really make much sense.
That doesn't mean Valencia is the greatest thing since Black Butte Porter. His D still needs work and he doesn't hit righties all that well. For every prospect like him who grows up to be Casey Blake, there are a half a dozen more who outgrow third base entirely without the abilty to hit well enough to man first or a corner outfield spot. But giving a 40-Man Roster spot to a guy like Waldrop or Singleton with a lesser resume? That doesn't strike me as sound roster management either.
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