During the Twins' two losses in Seattle earlier this week, we were reminded of the issues that can be presented by a thin and overworked bullpen. Pat Neshek's season-ending injury, combined with a need to limit Jesse Crain's workload in the wake of shoulder surgery along with a lack of other compelling options, have led Ron Gardenhire to use Matt Guerrier 55 times already this season. Recently the problem has been especially prevalent, with Guerrier appearing in eight of the team's past 11 games. He clearly appears to be worn down, as he's posted an 11.37 ERA while allowing 11 hits over 6 1/3 innings during that span. All these problems have forced Gardenhire to use Brian Bass in high-leverage situations on multiple occasions, and even to relent that he's finally ready to budge on his stringent use of Joe Nathan in save situations (which is a good thing, but alas).
The Twins rank 10th among 14 AL teams in bullpen ERA, with a 3.95 mark that puts them above the league average of 3.86. It's been a long time since the Twins have had a below-average bullpen, and the effects of this have been painfully evident with the number of winnable games that have slipped away, especially on the road. Looking ahead, the Twins will have to hope that Neshek can return effectively next season, but that is far from a given at this point. This bullpen is going to need all the help it can get, which makes the team's handling of its relief prospects all the more mystifying.
There are several intriguing relievers in the Twins' system. Most of them hold one commonality -- they are all relatively old and none of them are being moved through the system very aggressively despite getting very good results.
One example is Rob Delaney. After posting a 1.42 ERA and 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio while holding opposing hitters to a .207 batting average over 31 2/3 innings in Ft. Myers to open the season, Delaney was promoted to New Britain in June, where he has posted nearly identical numbers over 24 innings of work. He isn't a horribly frustrating example, since he has already been moved up one level this season, but Delaney turns 24 in a month and appears to have quickly mastered the Double-A level. With a dearth of quality relief prospects in the high levels of the minors, it would make sense to bump Delaney up to Triple-A for the remainder of the season to get a handle on where he stands and whether he can be an option for the Twins out of spring training in 2009 or even in September of this year.
A pair of teammates in the Ft. Myers Miracle bullpen provide a more upsetting example of inexplicably stalled prospects. Blair Erickson has posted a 1.39 ERA and 39-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing just 12 hits in 32 1/3 innings out of the Miracle 'pen after an early-season promotion from Low-A Beloit. More unsettling is the case of Anthony Slama, who has posted video-game numbers (60 IP, 0.90 ERA, 92/21 K/BB, .172 BAA) but has spent the entire season in Ft. Myers. Back in July after Delaney and others had been promoted from Ft. Myers to New Britain, I lamented that the dominating Slama was not part of that group, remarking that the right-hander was "stagnating at the Single-A level." Two months later, Slama continues to dominate and continues to stagnate at a level that is clearly below him. Erickson is 23, Slama 24; these players have no business playing in Single-A, and their numbers provide clear evidence of this.
Delaney, Erickson and Slama were all drafted out of college, and it is considered common practice to promote college-trained players more quickly since they enter pro baseball already having gained experience against relatively high-level competition. Yet, the Twins continue to move these three somewhat slowly in spite of their success, which wouldn't be quite so irksome if it weren't for the glaring needs developing in the Twins' bullpen.
It's worth noting that all three of these relief prospects are dominating levels that they are clearly too advanced for, and none are sure bets to develop into useful major-league relievers. Furthermore, moving prospects up through the system can be tricky business because it involves a ripple effect with players being displaced at other levels. But at this point, it makes every bit of sense to place these young men in a more appropriate competitive environment so that the organization can evaluate whether they may provide answers for a question-filled big-league bullpen in the near future.
6 comments:
Bullpen's a common discussion topic today. Is there anyone in Rochester you wouldn't mind seeing given a shot in place of Bass or Bonser?
Twins bullpen prospects, especially with the Rochester season ending on September 1, will probably be Bobby Korekcy and Phillip Humber fer sure. Humber is out of options come spring training, so he needs to show some life this fall and in the spring to remain a Twin. Being a "starter" he could also fill the role now held by Boof/Bass come 2009. Korecky needs some innings to prove that his earlier call-up wasn't just a fluke.
The kicker is who to add to the 40-man roster.
The Twins currently have three openings (with Neshek on the 60-day). If Alexi isn't coming abck, they could 60-day him, as well as Jose Morales. That would give them 5 immediate spots to deal with.
mriano Gomez and Ricky Barrett are likely considerations. Both lefties and both possible replacements for soon free agent Dennys Reyes.
Otherwise, you start dipping down towards New Britain and maybe Ft. Myers, but the Delaney call to service is far fetched. Some of the pitchers Nick mentions are caught in the (no need to protect college guys for 4 years, high school guys for 5 years) numbers game. 24 is old, especially for A-ball, but wasn't Neshek 27 before getting his shot at the majors?
The bigger question is where do 40-man roster pitchers Julio DePaula, Oswaldo Sosa and Jose Miajres fit in the Twins shot-term and long-term picture. Mijares, recently promoted to new Britain, should also get a call to the majors come September. See if he WANTS major elague life. Try him out in a couple of one batter situations, and let him grow next year at AAA ball.
But ahs Sosa been apssed by others in the system, and DePaula?
The next big question is who to protect and bring to spring training, which is why I think Barrett and Gomez needs about 10 innings of Twins work come September, if they can get it. If there's a little light there, they are keepers thru spring training, otehrwise hope they pass Rule 5 or free agency, or just get passed by the organization.
The Twins DO seems cautious with service time, at times. I wonder, truly, if Duensing would have gotten a call-up for September or just a wait until November to join the 40-man squad, as will Swarzak.
Next year Slama will be at new Britain. A decision on him won't have to be made until the Fall of 2009. It shows the evils of being a college pitcher drafted by a major league organization...drafted out of high school a decision is amde on you by age 22-23. Drafted out of college, you could be held in waiting until you are 26-27.
Given that Tampa bay has a better record than the Twins doesn't the fact that they got Bradford (2.45 ERA in 47 games) in a waiver deal with Baltimore mean the Twins passed on him?
Seems to me Smith missed out on a possible solution to the bridge to Nathan problem.
I would absolutely agree with that but I understand that recently it has become more common to stock the guys you view as good young talent in AA and use your AAA for minor league veterans and retread types.
Interesting thoughts Curveball. I guess my issue is that you seem to be advocating waiting to bring these guys up until it's absolutely necessary to protect them as members of the organization, whereas I believe they should be brought up whenever they're capable of helping the team, especially given that the bullpen needs serious help right now.
Your points are well taken though, and certainly these are things that may be playing into the organization's mindset.
I actually advocate fast-tracking, myself. But the Twins seem to be cautionary, at times...althought that doesn't totally explain starting 22-year-old Carlos Gutierrez at Ft. Myers (besides making a decision this fall if he will be a starter or reliever).
Considering the "lack" of talent at AAA Rochester and the amount of bodies that played a second season at the three other levels (it seems), the Twins are thinking long-term or making good business decisions, rather than strive to win at all costs (i.e. keeping Bass and Boof around -- what are the chances eitehr will be in a Twins uniform come April 2009).
Again, we can't read the minds of the front office. That big board where all the players are shuffled around and commented on is something I would occasionally like to view as that fly on the wall.
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