In his second season as a big-leaguer, Valencia was struck by the infamous sophomore slump, with his OPS sinking by 122 points after an outstanding rookie campaign. That drop-off, however, was largely attributable to a 70-point dive in BABIP, which suggests that with steady peripheral rates and neutral luck his numbers at the plate will creep back upward in 2012.
Yet, judging by Ron Gardenhire's comments during the course of last season, Valencia's offense was not deemed by the club to be his most worrisome deficiency. If the young third baseman's starting job becomes endangered at some point this year, it seems likely that his glove will be the cause rather than his bat.
Late in August, Gardenhire expressed his frustration with Valencia's passive approach at the hot corner. On occasion, the manager intimated through media outlets that the team's future at third base had fallen into question.
You could hardly blame Gardy. After looking surprisingly sharp in the field during his big-league debut, Valencia showed severe regression in Year No. 2. Not only was he far more sloppy, committing 18 errors, but his range was visibly deteriorated. I'm reluctant to apply the UZR metric in single-season samples, but the difference there was stark: after putting up a 10.2 UZR/150 in 2010, Valencia finished at -6.1 in 154 games last season. In other words, UZR showed a 16-run defensive swing from one season to the next.
Whether you buy into that statistic or not, it seems clear that Valencia took a sizable step backward in the field last year, and that if he's unable to reverse that trend, his grip on the starting job will continue to loosen. As we've seen time and time again in the past, Gardenhire and the Twins are far more tolerant of substandard production at the plate than a failure to consistently get the job done defensively.
Showing posts with label valencia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label valencia. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
Tuesday Notes
* Anyone get the feeling that the Twins are cosmically cursed this year? Practically every break has gone against them. Beyond all the injuries and the generally lackluster play, one can't help but notice that impending free agents like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel have raised their value with good seasons while potential trade chips like Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have cratered their value with poor play and off-the-field issues.
On top of all that, and their best pitching prospect might be destined for Tommy John surgery.
* Oh, and it wouldn't surprise me if Scott Baker, one of the few bright spots of this season for the Twins, is headed for the same fate.
* My hunch is growing stronger…
* After surrendering six extra-base hits to righties on Sunday, including mammoth upper-deck homers by Paul Konerko and Brent Lillibridge, Brian Duensing has now yielded a .309/.367/.515 hitting line against opposite-sided hitters.
Properly utilized in the bullpen, Duensing would be a dominant late-inning force thanks to his otherworldly success against left-handed batters. In the rotation, where he continues to face righty-stacked lineups, he's a mediocre back-end starter on a team that's full of them. He's an asset that's not being maximized, and that's a shame.
Eventually, the Twins have to figure it out. Right?
* If you're interested in getting out to a game during this week's series against the Red Sox at Target Field, TiqIQ has the line on third-party tickets, which are in demand thanks to Jim Thome's chase for 600.
On top of all that, and their best pitching prospect might be destined for Tommy John surgery.
* Oh, and it wouldn't surprise me if Scott Baker, one of the few bright spots of this season for the Twins, is headed for the same fate.
* My hunch is growing stronger…
* After surrendering six extra-base hits to righties on Sunday, including mammoth upper-deck homers by Paul Konerko and Brent Lillibridge, Brian Duensing has now yielded a .309/.367/.515 hitting line against opposite-sided hitters.
Properly utilized in the bullpen, Duensing would be a dominant late-inning force thanks to his otherworldly success against left-handed batters. In the rotation, where he continues to face righty-stacked lineups, he's a mediocre back-end starter on a team that's full of them. He's an asset that's not being maximized, and that's a shame.
Eventually, the Twins have to figure it out. Right?
* If you're interested in getting out to a game during this week's series against the Red Sox at Target Field, TiqIQ has the line on third-party tickets, which are in demand thanks to Jim Thome's chase for 600.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
Swinging for the Fences
Plenty of Twins hitters have struggled this year, but Ron Gardenhire has been especially hard on Danny Valencia. The manager's frustration seems to be directed more at the young third baseman's approach than his results.
"He's got a lot of movement going on and they are trying to slow that down," Gardenhire said a couple weeks ago, in an interview where he also hinted that a demotion to the minors could be in store. "When Danny is swinging good he's driving the ball up the middle and the other way, staying on pitches. Right now, it looks like he's trying to hit every ball into the seats."
In 14 games since that quote was published, Valencia has only 10 hits -- six of them for extra bases, including three homers and a deep triple. Here's his spray chart during that span (excluding last night's game):
Zero hits to the opposite field. It seems clear that, whether intentional or not, Valencia isn't heeding his manager's advice. He's swinging hard and trying to crush the ball, and while that has resulted in some welcome power productivity, he's also hitting only .212 in those 14 games, with two walks and 11 strikeouts.
The Twins are so thin from injuries that Valencia need not worry about a trip to the minors for now. But if he doesn't start picking it up in the second half, he won't find himself guaranteed a starting job next year, regardless of the homer and RBI totals.
"He's got a lot of movement going on and they are trying to slow that down," Gardenhire said a couple weeks ago, in an interview where he also hinted that a demotion to the minors could be in store. "When Danny is swinging good he's driving the ball up the middle and the other way, staying on pitches. Right now, it looks like he's trying to hit every ball into the seats."
In 14 games since that quote was published, Valencia has only 10 hits -- six of them for extra bases, including three homers and a deep triple. Here's his spray chart during that span (excluding last night's game):
Zero hits to the opposite field. It seems clear that, whether intentional or not, Valencia isn't heeding his manager's advice. He's swinging hard and trying to crush the ball, and while that has resulted in some welcome power productivity, he's also hitting only .212 in those 14 games, with two walks and 11 strikeouts.
The Twins are so thin from injuries that Valencia need not worry about a trip to the minors for now. But if he doesn't start picking it up in the second half, he won't find himself guaranteed a starting job next year, regardless of the homer and RBI totals.
Friday, May 06, 2011
Three-Bagger: Sophomores, Rivera and Reinforcements
* Austin Jackson and Danny Valencia finished second and third, respectively, in the AL Rookie of the Year vote last season. Both players shared one common trait: very good batted ball luck. Jackson led the league in strikeouts but still managed a .293 average, thanks to an astronomical .396 BABIP. Valencia batted .311, his highest mark since he was at Ft. Myers in early 2008, aided by a .345 BABIP.
Given the volatile nature of BIP luck, it was fair to expect second-year regression for both players, and sure enough that's what we've seen. Valencia is hitting .218/.301/.327 for the Twins, and Jackson is hitting .190/.258/.281 for the Tigers.
Of the two slumping sophomores, I'd say Jackson has more to worry about. He was extraordinarily lucky to maintain a such a good average while striking out in over a quarter of his at-bats in 2010; this year he once again leads the league in whiffs and the balls he has put in play haven't been as apt to evade gloves.
Meanwhile, Valencia's funk seems more like bad luck than regression to the mean. He has actually upped his line drive rate from last year (from 18.8 percent to 23.9 percent) and has shown very good discipline at the plate, with 13 strikeouts and 12 walks in 113 plate appearances.
Valencia was unlikely to rattle off another .800 OPS in his second season, but I think most of us would have been content if told he was walking more, striking out less and hitting more liners after a rookie campaign that wasn't exactly shabby.
* I wrote on Monday about the dire state of the catcher position for the Twins. Joe Mauer's replacements have produced a worse hitting line than the average National League pitcher, and they're not exactly making up for it on the other side of the ball; Minnesota pitchers have generally struggled and opposing teams have run wild on the bases.
I concluded then that the Twins ought to either sign or trade for a catcher if they sensed that Mauer's return was still weeks or months away. The combination of Drew Butera and Steve Holm was simply not acceptable as even a moderately long-term solution for a major-league team.
It turns out the front office agreed with at least part of that sentiment. They optioned Holm to Rochester yesterday, but he's only swapping places with another lackluster option who was already there. In order to jolt their fledgling squad, the Twins have replaced Holm and his .343 OPS (which, mind you, was actually superior to Butera's .306) with 27-year-old Rene Rivera and his .583 OPS in Triple-A.
I suspect the Twins were dissatisfied with Holm's game-calling (opponents scored 26 runs over the last two games he received) and inability to control the running game (he was 0-for-5 throwing out runners). A shakeup at the catcher position was beyond necessary. But replacing Holm with another no-bat minor-league journeyman who has no business playing in the majors is not a passable solution for an offense that has been baseball's worst over the first five weeks of the season.
* In addition to Rivera, the Twins called up two other minor-leaguers who merit a bit more enthusiasm. With both Jim Thome and Jason Repko hitting the disabled list earlier this week, Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere have been promoted to try and build on their brief 2010 MLB debuts.
Revere, who hit .375 over his last 10 games in Rochester, is a welcome addition. His bat isn't much of an asset, but he's a better defender than Rene Tosoni -- who has looked very green -- and he adds significant speed to the roster.
Plouffe has gained attention by smashing six home runs over his first 21 games in Triple-A this year, and would have a hard time proving a worse option at shortstop than Alexi Casilla, but I maintain the stance I took on him in early April:
Given the volatile nature of BIP luck, it was fair to expect second-year regression for both players, and sure enough that's what we've seen. Valencia is hitting .218/.301/.327 for the Twins, and Jackson is hitting .190/.258/.281 for the Tigers.
Of the two slumping sophomores, I'd say Jackson has more to worry about. He was extraordinarily lucky to maintain a such a good average while striking out in over a quarter of his at-bats in 2010; this year he once again leads the league in whiffs and the balls he has put in play haven't been as apt to evade gloves.
Meanwhile, Valencia's funk seems more like bad luck than regression to the mean. He has actually upped his line drive rate from last year (from 18.8 percent to 23.9 percent) and has shown very good discipline at the plate, with 13 strikeouts and 12 walks in 113 plate appearances.
Valencia was unlikely to rattle off another .800 OPS in his second season, but I think most of us would have been content if told he was walking more, striking out less and hitting more liners after a rookie campaign that wasn't exactly shabby.
* I wrote on Monday about the dire state of the catcher position for the Twins. Joe Mauer's replacements have produced a worse hitting line than the average National League pitcher, and they're not exactly making up for it on the other side of the ball; Minnesota pitchers have generally struggled and opposing teams have run wild on the bases.
I concluded then that the Twins ought to either sign or trade for a catcher if they sensed that Mauer's return was still weeks or months away. The combination of Drew Butera and Steve Holm was simply not acceptable as even a moderately long-term solution for a major-league team.
It turns out the front office agreed with at least part of that sentiment. They optioned Holm to Rochester yesterday, but he's only swapping places with another lackluster option who was already there. In order to jolt their fledgling squad, the Twins have replaced Holm and his .343 OPS (which, mind you, was actually superior to Butera's .306) with 27-year-old Rene Rivera and his .583 OPS in Triple-A.
I suspect the Twins were dissatisfied with Holm's game-calling (opponents scored 26 runs over the last two games he received) and inability to control the running game (he was 0-for-5 throwing out runners). A shakeup at the catcher position was beyond necessary. But replacing Holm with another no-bat minor-league journeyman who has no business playing in the majors is not a passable solution for an offense that has been baseball's worst over the first five weeks of the season.
* In addition to Rivera, the Twins called up two other minor-leaguers who merit a bit more enthusiasm. With both Jim Thome and Jason Repko hitting the disabled list earlier this week, Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere have been promoted to try and build on their brief 2010 MLB debuts.
Revere, who hit .375 over his last 10 games in Rochester, is a welcome addition. His bat isn't much of an asset, but he's a better defender than Rene Tosoni -- who has looked very green -- and he adds significant speed to the roster.
Plouffe has gained attention by smashing six home runs over his first 21 games in Triple-A this year, and would have a hard time proving a worse option at shortstop than Alexi Casilla, but I maintain the stance I took on him in early April:
I'd note that while Plouffe's power is intriguing -- especially for a middle infielder -- his on-base skills and defensive aptitude are questionable. Much like with Luke Hughes, we shouldn't allow a brief power-hitting streak to skew our perceptions of him as a ballplayer.The Twins themselves don't seem to believe in Plouffe as a legitimate answer, as they've directed Tsuyoshi Nishioka to take reps at shortstop while he rehabs from a broken leg.
Friday, March 18, 2011
Position Analysis: Third Base
Likely Starter: Danny Valencia
Potential Backups: Matt Tolbert, Luke Hughes
Danny Valencia seems hell bent on proving everyone wrong.
Drafted in the 19th round back in 2006 despite his impressive productivity for a major college program, the native Floridian signed rather than returning for a senior year, eager to showcase his ability in the pros.
Valencia did just that. He hit .311/.365/.505 during a 48-game debut at rookie-level Elizabethton after signing in '06, and throughout his steady ascent of the minor leagues he never really stopped hitting. Questions occasionally swirled about his plate discipline, his true power potential and his maturity, but through it all Valencia just kept hitting. He never posted a batting average lower than .284 at any level, and every single year after being drafted he showed enough to earn a midseason promotion.
One could certainly argue that last year's promotion -- from Triple-A to the majors -- wasn't earned. Valencia was hitting .292 at the time he was called up, but sported a mediocre .720 OPS and had managed zero home runs in 202 plate appearances.
He was called up out of necessity. Nick Punto had been staggeringly awful at the dish and Ron Gardenhire had resorted to Michael Cuddyer at third. The team was desperate for a legitimate option at the hot corner, but expectations for Valencia were set low.
All he did was hit .311/.351/.448 with seven homers and 40 RBI over 85 games, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.
The third baseman's determination to prove everyone wrong seems to fit with his personality. Anyone who's spent time around him will tell you the kid is cocky. But that cockiness is not to be confused with arrogance. What Valencia possesses is an amiable self-assuredness, at times brash but rarely pompous. Frankly, it's a trait I wish more Twins players possessed (but, of course, it's one that tends not to mesh well with Gardenhire).
Like any player coming off an out-of-nowhere rookie splash, Valencia is a candidate to regress this season. Depending on your viewpoint, that likelihood may be increased by a rather lofty .345 BABIP last season (though his imperviousness to poor batting averages in the minors would seem to suggest he has a skill).
So far this spring, Valencia has been one of the most impressive players in camp, hitting .393 with a cool 1.095 OPS. If a sophomore slump is supposed to be setting in, no one has apparently informed him as of yet.
Should their newly entrenched third baseman succumb to advanced scouting reports or injury, the Twins would look to either Matt Tolbert or Luke Hughes. But I don't expect that to happen, and I'm sure Valencia would agree.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Valencia: .290/.340/.410, 10 HR, 50 RBI
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| Photo by Jim Donton |
Danny Valencia seems hell bent on proving everyone wrong.
Drafted in the 19th round back in 2006 despite his impressive productivity for a major college program, the native Floridian signed rather than returning for a senior year, eager to showcase his ability in the pros.
Valencia did just that. He hit .311/.365/.505 during a 48-game debut at rookie-level Elizabethton after signing in '06, and throughout his steady ascent of the minor leagues he never really stopped hitting. Questions occasionally swirled about his plate discipline, his true power potential and his maturity, but through it all Valencia just kept hitting. He never posted a batting average lower than .284 at any level, and every single year after being drafted he showed enough to earn a midseason promotion.
One could certainly argue that last year's promotion -- from Triple-A to the majors -- wasn't earned. Valencia was hitting .292 at the time he was called up, but sported a mediocre .720 OPS and had managed zero home runs in 202 plate appearances.
He was called up out of necessity. Nick Punto had been staggeringly awful at the dish and Ron Gardenhire had resorted to Michael Cuddyer at third. The team was desperate for a legitimate option at the hot corner, but expectations for Valencia were set low.
All he did was hit .311/.351/.448 with seven homers and 40 RBI over 85 games, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote.
The third baseman's determination to prove everyone wrong seems to fit with his personality. Anyone who's spent time around him will tell you the kid is cocky. But that cockiness is not to be confused with arrogance. What Valencia possesses is an amiable self-assuredness, at times brash but rarely pompous. Frankly, it's a trait I wish more Twins players possessed (but, of course, it's one that tends not to mesh well with Gardenhire).
Like any player coming off an out-of-nowhere rookie splash, Valencia is a candidate to regress this season. Depending on your viewpoint, that likelihood may be increased by a rather lofty .345 BABIP last season (though his imperviousness to poor batting averages in the minors would seem to suggest he has a skill).
So far this spring, Valencia has been one of the most impressive players in camp, hitting .393 with a cool 1.095 OPS. If a sophomore slump is supposed to be setting in, no one has apparently informed him as of yet.
Should their newly entrenched third baseman succumb to advanced scouting reports or injury, the Twins would look to either Matt Tolbert or Luke Hughes. But I don't expect that to happen, and I'm sure Valencia would agree.
Predicted 2011 Hitting Line for Valencia: .290/.340/.410, 10 HR, 50 RBI
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
No Ordinary Rookie
Their bats went into a bit of a slumber during the team's most recent road trip, but the Twins have still boasted one of the most prolific offenses in baseball since the All-Star break. Most impressively, they've done it without the services of their best hitter, as Justin Morneau remains sidelined by the lingering effects of a concussion suffered in early July.
Few knew what to expect from Danny Valencia when he was called up from Triple-A in early June to provide depth while Michael Cuddyer was away on bereavement. It was expected, at the time, that Valencia would be with the team for only a short period of time and that Cuddyer would return to third base indefinitely. Valencia was, after all, having a rather unremarkable season in the minors (he'd posted a .720 OPS with zero home runs in 49 games at Rochester) and the organization was understandably wary about relying on such an unproven commodity amidst a heated pennant race.
Valencia began to make an impact immediately, collecting hits in nine of his first 11 big-league starts. When Morneau went down on July 7, the plan of using Cuddyer at third base ceased to be palatable (not that it was anywhere close to ideal to begin with), and so the team looked to Valencia, owner of only 48 major-league at-bats, to take over at the hot corner.
Had Valencia not stepped up and proven a capable regular at third base, it's frightening to think where this team might be. Brendan Harris was so terrible early in the season that he was designated for assignment. Nick Punto hasn't been able to keep himself off the disabled list late in the season. Cuddyer has been needed at first, and probably will be for the remainder of the year. Had Valencia struggled in his initial taste of the majors -- as many expected he would, since he often took a few months to adjust to heightened levels of competition in the minors -- it's possible we'd be looking at Matt Tolbert as the club's regular third baseman right now. Or else, Bill Smith might have been forced to part with valuable assets at the deadline out of desperation for a replacement. Heck, maybe they'd have even called Joe Crede to see if he could hobble out to the field for a couple months.
Fortunately, none of that was necessary, because Valencia has been a revelation at third base. He has also provided hope that he can be a long-term answer at a position that has been a peristent liability for the Twins ever since Corey Koskie's departure. Over the past five years, the Twins have shuffled through Cuddyer, Punto, Crede, Harris, Brian Buscher, Tony Batista and Mike Lamb at third base, and never come up with a remotely suitable solution. Valencia's excellent debut suggests that he could be a competent, durable and cheap answer at the hot corner for years to come. That last factor weighs heavily, since the Twins' significant payroll commitments to core players leave them needing to save money in other spots.
To be clear, I don't expect Valencia to continue to be a .330 hitter going forward. He hit .289 in the minors and hadn't posted a mark over .300 since he was in Single-A back in early 2008. Keep in mind that Valencia has always been a streaky player and we've yet to see a cold streak, so chances are we're seeing his numbers at a high point. His offensive production since joining the Twins has been propped up by an unsustainably high .363 batting average on balls in play and if you take away seven of his singles (less than one per week), his hitting line drops from .328/.373/.446 to a much more ordinary .294/.341/.412, which would register as only slightly above average production for an AL third baseman.
But, homers or not, it was fun to watch him drive the baseball and jump-start the offense in an exciting comeback victory. Both at the plate and in the field, Valencia looks like a natural. Hopefully we'll have the pleasure of watching him man third for many years to come.
Friday, June 04, 2010
Valencia: Get it While it's Hot
Danny Valencia made his major-league debut last night, going 1-for-3 while starting at third base in a 4-1 loss to the Mariners. Valencia looked fine offensively and defensively, and for those who've wondered when the team's top third base prospect would finally get his chance, it was refreshing to see the 25-year-old manning the hot corner.
Now, one wonders what the plan is for Valencia. Ron Gardenhire said recently that the team called on the young third baseman to fill in against a lineup of tough left-handed starters the Twins are set to face over the weekend. It would seem that when Michael Cuddyer returns from bereavement leave on Tuesday, Valencia will return to the minors (unless Orlando Hudson lands on the disabled list).
So what's the deal? The Twins have seemingly been of the mindset that Valencia should stay down in Rochester, playing regularly, until he's ready to come up for good. Now he's being called upon to make his major-league debut during a tough road trip with the caveat that he'll probably only be with the Twins for a handful of days before packing up and heading back to the minors, regardless of his performance.
It could be that the Twins want to take this opportunity to give Valencia a brief audition. Or it could be that they want to ride out his latest hot streak.
Valencia is a notoriously streaky player. When he's locked in, he can tear up opposing pitchers, putting up multiple hits night after night. When he's in a funk, the 0-fer's can pile up in a hurry. This season has been a fine case in point; the third baseman got off to a slow start in April, batting just .256 with a disappointing .306 on-base percentage. In May, he turned it on, kicking those figures up to .330 and .384.
The trend is not unique to this year. Check out Valencia's AVG/OPS figures for each month in 2009 where he had significant playing time:
April: .269 / .858
May: .373 / 1.110
June: .262 / .706
July: .287 / .770
August: .283 / .703
It's worth noting that the numbers from the first two and a half months or so are from Doble-A while the second half of the season was spent in Triple-A, which helps explain the drop-off, but Valencia was red-hot even after being promoted to the Red Wings last year. He didn't start slumping until he'd already been there for several weeks.
Valencia's performance tends to fluctuate quite a bit throughout the season. Over his past 10 games in Rochester, he'd been hitting .324 with a .439 OBP. Perhaps the Twins called on him to ride out this hot streak before he inevitably falls into another funk. Let's hope his bat can keep rolling this weekend in Oakland, because right now the Twins need all the offense they can get.
Now, one wonders what the plan is for Valencia. Ron Gardenhire said recently that the team called on the young third baseman to fill in against a lineup of tough left-handed starters the Twins are set to face over the weekend. It would seem that when Michael Cuddyer returns from bereavement leave on Tuesday, Valencia will return to the minors (unless Orlando Hudson lands on the disabled list).
So what's the deal? The Twins have seemingly been of the mindset that Valencia should stay down in Rochester, playing regularly, until he's ready to come up for good. Now he's being called upon to make his major-league debut during a tough road trip with the caveat that he'll probably only be with the Twins for a handful of days before packing up and heading back to the minors, regardless of his performance.
It could be that the Twins want to take this opportunity to give Valencia a brief audition. Or it could be that they want to ride out his latest hot streak.
Valencia is a notoriously streaky player. When he's locked in, he can tear up opposing pitchers, putting up multiple hits night after night. When he's in a funk, the 0-fer's can pile up in a hurry. This season has been a fine case in point; the third baseman got off to a slow start in April, batting just .256 with a disappointing .306 on-base percentage. In May, he turned it on, kicking those figures up to .330 and .384.
The trend is not unique to this year. Check out Valencia's AVG/OPS figures for each month in 2009 where he had significant playing time:
April: .269 / .858
May: .373 / 1.110
June: .262 / .706
July: .287 / .770
August: .283 / .703
It's worth noting that the numbers from the first two and a half months or so are from Doble-A while the second half of the season was spent in Triple-A, which helps explain the drop-off, but Valencia was red-hot even after being promoted to the Red Wings last year. He didn't start slumping until he'd already been there for several weeks.
Valencia's performance tends to fluctuate quite a bit throughout the season. Over his past 10 games in Rochester, he'd been hitting .324 with a .439 OBP. Perhaps the Twins called on him to ride out this hot streak before he inevitably falls into another funk. Let's hope his bat can keep rolling this weekend in Oakland, because right now the Twins need all the offense they can get.
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