Thursday, March 31, 2011

The Nicks' Picks 2011

It's that time of year. Time for us all to make our trivial and almost certain-to-be-wrong preseason predictions, so that when the season comes to an end we can look back and chuckle at how clueless we were. To kick off the action, I've jotted down my predictions for various general and Twins-specific outcomes, and I've even enlisted my former blogging partner Nick Mosvick to throw his hat in the ring.

Feel free to submit your own predictions in the comments section.

Nelson's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: White Sox
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Yankees

NL West: Rockies
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Phillies
NL Wild Card: Braves

World Series: Phillies over Red Sox

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

AL MVP:
Robinson Cano
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson
NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt

Twins-Specific

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Kyle Gibson
Twins Most Improved Player: Michael Cuddyer
Bold Predictions: Front office will add multiple relievers from outside before trade deadline; Liriano's ERA will rank among top 3 in AL; Delmon Young will hit 30 home runs.
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): White Sox, Twins, Tigers, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Good health from core players; emergence of quality relief options in middle innings; continued success against divisional opponents.

Mosvick's Picks

General

AL West: Athletics
AL Central: Tigers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Wild Card: Rays

NL West: Giants
NL Central: Brewers
NL East: Braves
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: Braves over Red Sox

AL MVP: Carl Crawford
NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander

AL Rookie of the Year:
Kyle Drabek
NL Rookie of the Year: Mike Minor

Twins-Specific

Last year, in this category, I produced a spectacularly bad pick by predicting that Brendan Harris would get more at-bats than Delmon Young. Not only did I miss on foreseeing any improvement from Young, I missed on Harris becoming the definition of a replacement-level player, or possibly worse. Nonetheless, I'll get the tires again on Twins-specific bold predictions here:

Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
Twins Best Rookie: Ben Revere
Twins Most Improved Player: Kevin Slowey
Bold Predictions: Kevin Slowey will lead the staff in ERA, Matt Capps will have more saves than Joe Nathan, Jason Kubel will top 30 home runs
A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Royals
Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Morneau making a healthy and productive return to the lineup; rookie bullpen arms having success late in the season; getting at least marginal productivity from bench players not named Thome.

16 comments:

  1. Bold Predictions:
    - Duensing eats up more innings than Pavano
    - Kubel is the 4th outfielder and back-up DH
    - Gardy won't have the heart to bench Morneau

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dave's Picks

    General

    AL West: Athletics
    AL Central: Twins
    AL East: Red Sox
    AL Wild Card: White Sox

    NL West: Giants
    NL Central: Reds
    NL East: Phillies
    NL Wild Card: Braves

    World Series: Twins over Phillies

    AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
    NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay

    AL MVP: Mega Hunk Joe Mauer
    NL MVP: Albert Pujols

    AL Rookie of the Year: Kyle Drabek

    NL Rookie of the Year: Billy Bullock

    Twins-Specific

    Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
    Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
    Twins Best Rookie: Nishi
    Twins Most Improved Player: Alexi
    Bold Predictions: Bullpen will be one of the best 10 in baseball, Blackburn will have 200 IP and a sub 4.10 ERA, Mauer will hit 20 HR
    A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians
    Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Health, Liriano becoming an ace, Span, Cuddyer and Kubel bounce back years.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous10:46 AM

    Pujols for NL MVP? You guys are really going out on a limb with that guess ;)

    ReplyDelete
  4. My picks:

    ALW: Rangers
    ALC: Twins
    ALE: Red Sox
    AL WC: Rays

    NLW: Giants
    NLC: Brewers
    NLE: Phillies
    NL WC: Rockies

    WS: Red Sox over Phillies

    AL Cy: Jon Lester
    NL Cy: Zack Grienke

    AL MVP: Joe Mauer
    NL MVP: Ryan Braun

    No idea on rookies this year

    Twins Predictions:
    Nishioka will hit over .300, steal over 30 bases, and Gardy will still pine for Punto
    Bullpen will make everyone nervous all year, but the difference between this year's pen and last year's pen will be +/- 1 game at most
    Valencia's BA will drop to around .280, but he'll make up for it with increased power numbers
    Matt Tolbert will flirt with Mendoza line most of the season and Gardy will play him too much.
    Drew Butera will be the worse hitter in MLB
    Twins will win the division because their pitching depth will allow them to overcome injuries that will hurt other teams and their lineup is the most solid in the division.

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  5. I'll go out on a limb and say the Twins win the Central and get swept by the Yankees in the playoffs. You know, something new.

    ReplyDelete
  6. General

    AL West: Rangers
    AL Central: Twins
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Wild Card: Red Sox

    NL West: Rockies
    NL Central: Reds
    NL East: Phillies
    NL Wild Card: Braves

    World Series: Phillies over Twins

    AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia
    NL Cy Young: Josh Johnson

    AL MVP: Justin Morneau
    NL MVP: Albert Pujols

    AL Rookie of the Year: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
    NL Rookie of the Year: Brandon Belt

    Twins-Specific

    Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
    Twins Top Pitcher: Francisco Liriano
    Twins Best Rookie: Nishioka
    Twins Most Improved Player: Kevin Slowey
    Bold Predictions: No Twin will hit 30 HRs. Twins will have the top bullpen ERA in the AL.
    A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians

    ReplyDelete
  7. True, picking Pujols isn't going out on a limb. I seriously contemplated going many ways on that one, but I think I threw a fair amount of less-popular picks, like Drabek and Minor for ROTY (Hellickson and Freeman are the popular picks), along with Crawford for AL MVP and Verlander for Cy Young. Those aren't completely out of the blue, but I don't think I went with all consensus picks. Anyways, when it comes to the NL MVP, Pujols has had an argument for deserving all but one year (2002) he's been in the league. Votto, Cargo, and Tulo are all great players who may well take the MVP, but I'm not sure Pujols is as a ready as Ryan Howard to start the path of decline. For a darkhorse, I'd go with Jason Heyward (since I do have the Braves going to the playoffs)or Fielder. But, as a predictive matter, I'd say Pujols has by far the best shot.

    ReplyDelete
  8. cy1time1:36 PM

    Nishimania will take over by mid-May. Everywhere the Twins go, he'll be the story. Maybe he makes the all-star game as the last guy voted in by the fans.

    Liriano is traded at the deadline, maybe in a deal for Billy Bullock. Nick recovers from exploded head when Kyle Gibson comes up and is respectable.

    Nathan gets beat up in April, but the ball starts coming out of his hand better in May and by July, he looks like the old Joe Nathan.

    Span bounces back and scores 110 runs.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Bold Prediction: My bold prediction is that none of Nick's predictions come true.

    AL WEST: Angels
    Central: Twins (by 10 games)
    East: Sox and Yanks tie/yanks go in as wild card with worse division record

    NL West: Rockies
    NL central: Cards
    NL East: Phils
    NL Wild Card: Brewers

    MVP NL: PUJOS, no contract no problem

    MVP AL: Delmon, swing at first pitch play outfield worse than Thome could, Young (but seriously, I'll go with Crawford, dude is a 5 tooler)

    NL Cy Young: Jimenez
    AL CY Young: Verlander (in a division losing effort)

    Twins Specific: Blog readers go nuts over no big trade for an ace.
    Team MVP: Casilla for hitting over .200
    Team Cy Young:
    ROY: Yoshi, even tho I see him struggling throughout May to adjust.

    Sorry for messing with you Nick, you know I'm just kidding. I am just puffing out my big chest trying to show you that I am a rube of all things Twins.

    Mr. Suter Out

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  10. Bold Prediction: Nishi hits over .300 and wins AL Rookie of the Year :-)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Lots of love for Nishioka in these predictions. Hope you guys are right.

    Liriano is traded at the deadline, maybe in a deal for Billy Bullock. Nick recovers from exploded head when Kyle Gibson comes up and is respectable.

    Nice.

    Nathan gets beat up in April, but the ball starts coming out of his hand better in May and by July, he looks like the old Joe Nathan.

    I'm on board with this one.

    Bold Prediction: My bold prediction is that none of Nick's predictions come true.

    That's not very bold. :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. this time nishi will play well and rocks all the hits....


    MLB 2k11

    MLB 2011

    ReplyDelete
  13. I fear that this year might be the beginning of the end for Kubel and Cuddyer. It would seem possible that both of them have peaked as players.

    ReplyDelete
  14. My bold prediction is that the Twins offense is very good this year and that our middle infield holds their own. I predict our bullpen will be better than people think with Mijares, Nathan, and Capps locking a very solid back end. However, I think our starting pitching is going to really struggle this year. I don't know why and have no real logic to put behind it. I just have this bad feeling that Liriano will get hurt and black/pavano/duensing will be relatively ineffective.

    On the plus side I see a resurgence from Scott Baker on the horizon and we always have Slowey/Gibson waiting in the wings if we get in a pinch.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous1:43 PM

    AL West: Rangers
    AL Central: Twins
    AL East: Red Sox
    AL Wild Card: Yankees

    NL West: Giants
    NL Central: Brewers
    NL East: Braves
    NL Wild Card: Phillies

    World Series: Red Sox over Braves

    AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
    NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

    AL MVP: Joe Mauer
    NL MVP: Ryan Braun


    Twins-Specific

    Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
    Twins Top Pitcher: Carl Pavano
    Twins Best Rookie: Nishi
    Twins Most Improved Player: Span
    Bold Predictions: Twins were 6th in runs last year... they will increase that, Span and Yoshi in front of Mauer and Morneau will be f'n amazing, Thome will jack another 20 HR's


    A.L. Central Prediction (Standings): Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Indians
    Three Keys to Success for the Twins: Health, health, and health.

    ReplyDelete
  16. World Series: Red Sox over Braves

    AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
    NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum

    AL MVP: Joe Mauer
    NL MVP: Ryan Braun

    ReplyDelete