One of the most important and immediate decisions that the Twins' front office will face this offseason is whether or not to offer arbitration to J.J. Hardy. There a number of other interesting arbitration cases, but few seem as up in the air as Hardy's. It's not difficult to see why.
Hardy earned $5.1 million in 2010, and is entering his final year of team control. If the Twins offer him arbitration, they will lock up his services for 2011 while also guaranteeing him a raise of at least a million (in the Offseason GM Handbook, we projected his salary at $6.5 million). That seems like a hefty price to pay for a shortstop who characteristically struggled with injuries while posting unspectacular offensive numbers for a second straight year.
This decision represents a gamble of sorts. If Bill Smith decides to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that the shortstop can put together a healthier campaign next year, because it's hard to justify such a large salary for a player that's only going to play 101 games (as he did this year) while putting forth somewhat meager production.
If Smith decides not to offer Hardy arbitration, he's gambling that he can find a better and perhaps less expensive option elsewhere. That could be Alexi Casilla, though I suspect he's currently pegged to start at second base next year with Orlando Hudson set to depart. It could conceivably be Trevor Plouffe, but that's highly doubtful given his pedestrian minor-league track record and lack of big-league success.
Non-tendering Hardy probably seems like a no-brainer to some. He came nowhere close to replicating his 2007/08 production, as many had hoped, and couldn't really stay on the field this year. However, when we compare Hardy's contributions to those of other shortstops across the league, his numbers start to look a whole lot more impressive.
Let's run through the players who led each American League club in games played at shortstop this year. Listed alongside each player are their core offensive numbers, and I'll also include each player's UZR/150 in an effort to get a snapshot of their defensive proficiency, while acknowledging that Ultimate Zone Rating -- like all fielding metrics -- is flawed, especially over a one-year sample. Finally, I'll include their WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, a figure meant to represent the number of wins they contributed over a replacement-level player based on a formula developed by FanGraphs that factors in both offense and defense.
We start with our own guy:
TWINS: J.J. Hardy
101 G, .268/.320/.394, 6 HR, 38 RBI, 12.8 UZR/150, 2.4 WAR
Now, the rest of the AL:
ORIOLES: Cesar Izturis
150 G, .230/.277/.268, 1 HR, 28 RBI, 5.8 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RED SOX: Marco Scutaro
150 G, .275/.333/.388, 11 HR, 56 RBI, -3.3 UZR/150, 2.1 WAR
WHITE SOX: Alexei Ramirez
156 G, .282/.313/.431, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 10.1 UZR/150, 3.8 WAR
INDIANS: Asdrubal Cabrera
97 G, .276/.326/.346, 3 HR, 29 RBI, -13.4 UZR/150, 0.5 WAR
TIGERS: Ramon Santiago
112 G, .263/.337/.325, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16.1 UZR/150, 2.0 WAR
ROYALS: Yuniesky Betancourt
151 G, .259/.288/.405, 16 HR, 78 RBI, -9.2 UZR/150, 0.6 WAR
ANGELS: Erick Aybar
138 G, .253/.306/.330, 5 HR, 29 RBI, -2.6 UZR/150, 0.9 WAR
YANKEES: Derek Jeter
157 G, .270/.340/.370, 10 HR, 67 RBI, -5.4 UZR/150, 2.5 WAR
ATHLETICS: Cliff Pennington
156 G, .250/.319/.368, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 8.8 UZR/150, 3.7 WAR
MARINERS: Josh Wilson
108 G, .227/.278/.294, 2 HR, 25 RBI, -2.9 UZR/150, -0.3 WAR
RAYS: Jason Bartlett
135 G, .254/.324/.350, 4 HR, 47 RBI, -13.8 UZR/150, 0.7 WAR
RANGERS: Elvis Andrus
148 G, .265/.342/.301, 0 HR, 35 RBI, 0.3 UZR/150, 1.5 WAR
BLUE JAYS: Alex Gonzalez (includes second-half numbers w/ Braves)
157 G, .250/.294/.447, 23 HR, 88 RBI, 5.1 UZR/150, 3.4 WAR
So, there you have it. If you were underwhelmed by Hardy's numbers before looking at this list, you're probably not anymore. Despite the fact that injuries limited the Twins' shortstop to 101 games and tainted his overall production when he was able to get on the field, only FOUR shorstops in the Junior Circuit managed a higher WAR.
Now, I'm not going to say that WAR is a perfect stat, but it is cumulative so the fact that Hardy's mark was fifth best in the AL despite his missing close to half the season says something about the state of regular shortstops in this league. There just aren't very many good ones, and very few who can hit for power or play truly outstanding defense. Even though Hardy played in only 101 games and his six home runs were fewer than we'd expect from him based on his history, only four players at his position hit more homers. Just one AL shortstop rated better defensively according to UZR.
Hardy's numbers only look bad when you look at them in isolation and not in the context of his position and league. Darn near every other team in the AL would like to upgrade at shortstop, and the free agent market at that position is exceedingly thin so Hardy would get snatched up very quickly with no real desirable options left over.
It's for that reason that I have always felt, and continue to feel, that bringing back Hardy is a no-brainer, even if the price seems high. I hope Smith and the Twins feel the same way.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
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17 comments:
Amen! I can't believe anyone wants to non tender this guy.
Anonymous II agrees also.
I dont know how fair it is to say the hardy has been characteristically injured. He was injured his second year, his 09 season was shortened by being sent to them minors. His 3rd and 4th seasons he played full seasons. Last year his offensive production was definitely hampered by lingering injuries that i believe the twins mishandled. Im not sure how 6-7 mil for a good defender at a premium defensive position whos above average for the position offensively seems like a lot. The twins have no comparable in house options and if they nontendered him hed be the best free agent SS minus furcal and jeter.
But i think 5 mil for hudson should be a slam dunk too. This twins dont have 2.5-3 war middle infield guys in house. If hardy and hudson were terrible defensive player, played a dime a dozen corner outfield position their 2.5 War would net them multiple years at 10 mil per like cuddy.
awesome article. He is also one of the only guys who has country music as his at bat song, which is reason enough to keep him around.
Eye opening stat line comparisons. Or, maybe shortstops in the AL are on the downside.
The Twins place a premium on fielding (Cuddy and Delmon notwithstanding), but if he only starts 100 games, he has limited value, WAR considered or not.
I think they have to offer arbitration or a longer term deal.
All I've seen is people talking about how they can't believe anyone wouldn't want to keep Hardy, and how they'll be mad if he isn't back. But I haven't seen all the people who are suggesting he shouldn't be signed. Maybe I'm following the wrong people on twitter.
But i think 5 mil for hudson should be a slam dunk too.
Eh, I wouldn't be angry if Hudson was brought back but with the budget concerns I don't see much problem with letting him go. I can pretty easily envision Casilla approaching .268/.338/.372, and he'd add some needed speed to the lineup. Plus, Hudson is going to be 33 next year and he's more fragile than Hardy.
I dont know how fair it is to say the hardy has been characteristically injured.
He might not have missed big chunks of time every season, but if you talk to fans from Milwaukee they'll tell you Hardy was almost always dealing with some sort of nagging ailment. That being said, his wrist injury this season was a freak incident and there's not much reason for concern about that going forward.
The twins have no comparable in house options and if they nontendered him hed be the best free agent SS minus furcal and jeter.
Furcal is signed through 2011 and to me Hardy would be a more appealing free agent than Jeter, though I'm sure most teams don't look at it that way.
But I haven't seen all the people who are suggesting he shouldn't be signed. Maybe I'm following the wrong people on twitter.
That suggests to me that you are following the right people on Twitter.
"I can pretty easily envision Casilla approaching .268/.338/.372"
His career line is .268/.335/.333 with suspect fielding by most metrics. The line you projected is pretty similar to what he did last year but i think best case scenario hes about as good as hudson was last year in a relatively poor season, worst case casilla is sub replacement and matt tolbert is your starting 2b mid May. 5-7 mil for an above average middle infielder seems like a much wiser allocation of money than 13 mil for a closer, 8 mil for a setup man, and a lot of the other silly contracts the twins have.
"He might not have missed big chunks of time every season, but if you talk to fans from Milwaukee they'll tell you Hardy was almost always dealing with some sort of naggingailment" This could be, i really dont know. I see the local sports writers talk about how fragile he is all the time and i dont see evidence of it in his games played.
"The Twins place a premium on fielding " Naw the place a premium on not making errors, and i get the feeling they like dives.
5-7 mil for an above average middle infielder seems like a much wiser allocation of money than 13 mil for a closer, 8 mil for a setup man, and a lot of the other silly contracts the twins have.
Well, I'm most definitely inclined to agree with you there, but that money's already committed for all intents and purposes.
The budget is what it is and I don't think there's funding available to give Hudson another $5-7 million. If it's between bringing back Hudson or Hardy I think the choice should be obvious.
If the Twins can pick up Punto for 4+ a year to sit on the bench, I think they can pick up Hardy for 6+.
The bottom line is the Twins always want to sign players after a good year and they pay top dollar for them (Cuddy, Punto, etc.) I think most people would agree that Hardy has the skill set to be a great player. If he stays healthy, his WAR probably goes up as well as his batting average. We should sign him to a multi year deal. We take a chance on his health issues, but if you look into the minors/outside the organization, there will not be another option as good as Hardy when healthy. We have a chance to lock in a good shortstop at a discount.
If he stays healthy, his WAR probably goes up as well as his batting average. We should sign him to a multi year deal.
I was hoping someone would suggest this. I think it's a great idea, but I sort of ran out of energy to bring it up in this post. Even if Hardy doesn't vastly improve, he was well above average this year and it's not like there's going to be any boom in the shortstop market. Players like him are always in demand, which is why he was such a great acquisition.
The Tigers and Jhonny Peralta just set the market for late 20's, RH SS with some power but no SB: 2 years, $11.25M, with a $6M option for 2013. Compare their 3-year totals:
Peralta: .260/.319/.414, 49 HR, 4/7 SB in about 1900 PA
Hardy: .262/.324/.419, 41 HR, 3/6 SB in about 1450 PA
They're essentially identical hitters. Hardy is the better fielder, but Peralta has been more durable. They're the same age. Basically, there is no justification for Hardy to expect anything different than what Peralta got, which pays $5.5M in 2011. The Twins should offer that contract immediately.
The thing that bugs me about the faction that wants to non tender hardy is that the twins have struggled for ever to fill the middle infield with even competent players. knobloch, bartlet, hudson hardy are the best we've had 20 plus years, and of those players only knobloch i would describe as even very good. When the twins have a competent SS seems like people are really quick to give them away. It seemed like lots of people didnt appreciate bartlet when he was here because he didnt put up big offensive numbers, seems like the same thing here with hardy.
Nick Punto had a higher WAR then Jeter and half of the guys on that list, that doesn't mean we should bring back Punto to start at SS, using WAR as your main argument is just lazy, your better then that Nick.
I made to point out that WAR is a flawed metric, and I hardly think it was my "main argument." I listed AVG/OBP/SLG, HR, RBI and UZR for a reason. When accounting for all these statistics, I think it's clear that Hardy rates very well compared to shortstops around the league.
Nick,
I completely agree with you. The Twins would be foolish to let J.J. Hardy go. They should sign him to a 3-year deal right now. Without him at shortstop would be a disaster in 2011. He should be priority #1. The fact that the Twins have not picked up his option yet means they are looking at cheaper options.
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