Leftovers

Yesterday, Mr. Nelson wrote up an article discussing a potential opening day roster for the Twins and which players are likely to be there. While reading this post, it occurred to me that there are a few players that might not be necessary. For instance, Lew Ford essentially duplicates what Jason Tyner does on the bench. Same for Juan Rincon in relation to Jesse Crain.

The difference between each is that one (Crain, Tyner) is still pretty cheap, while they other costs a pretty penny for this small-market team (Ford wants $1.3 million, Rincon is looking for $3.2 million).

Both Ford and Rincon disappointed last year. Ford was an absolute mess at the plate, hitting .226/.287/.312 with 4 home runs, 18 RBI, and 9 stolen bases. Tyner hit .312/.345/.353 with no homers, 18 RBI, and 4 stolen bases. Ford's advantages are his better plate discipline, power, and base-running ability. But he isn't significantly better in any of these departments to make him essential to the team's success. His defense and ability to play center and right is important, but Tyner can step over and do just as well as Rondell.

Rincon was 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA, but his strikeout rate was down to 65 in 74 1/3 innings, while allowing 76 hits. Crain, on the other hand, was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, striking out 60 in 76 2/3 innings while allowing 79 hits. The difference is that Rincon started well and ended terribly, while Crain had a disastrous April (like the team) but was much better and struck out a lot more hitters in the second half.

Why mention these two players? Because its clear that many teams are desparate for outfielders and relievers and the Twins have a few redundant players on the team. Look at this story in the Miami-Herald (credit CarterHayes from over at SBG for coming across this story):

(Shannon) Stewart, who turns 33 next month, could be considered an option to play center field. But he has played just 98 games at the position during a career that began with Toronto in 1995, none since 2000. And he has been plagued by ailments in both feet in recent years.

Florida is apparently so desperate for a center fielder that they'll give Stewart, who should only be a DH at this point, a shot. Now, the Twins wouldn't get the Marlins' top prospects or anything, but they certainly might give up a decent or potentially good prospect for a guy like Ford. Of course, there's always a good market for good relievers, and Rincon's good overall numbers from last year probably mean he has some trade value and could bring in a hitting prospect or two. Since it's apparent that the Twins lack a ton of hitting in their minor league system, they could use it. And the money saved by trading Ford or Rincon (or both) of these players may help to make up for the $3.1 million wasted on Ramon Ortiz.

Now, it's apparent that Terry Ryan and the Twins aren't looking to make any big moves before spring training. But they might want to consider using other teams desparation to their advantage by getting rid of some of their extra pieces they can afford to lose.

Opening Day 25?

With about a month left before spring training really kicks into gear, there isn't a whole lot to discuss relating to baseball except for outside observation and speculations. With that in mind, I thought I'd spend today's post making a very preliminary prediction about what the Twins 25-man roster will look like when they open the season on April 2. Of course, I reserve the right to make revisions to this list over the next two months, as several of these players' futures will likely be dictated by their performances in spring training. Anyway, here's how I envision the opening day Twins' roster at this point in time:

STARTERS
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Luis Castillo, 2B
Nick Punto, 3B
Jason Bartlett, SS
Rondell White, LF
Torii Hunter, CF
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Jason Kubel, DH

BENCH
Mike Redmond, C
Alejandro Machado, IF
Jeff Cirillo, IF
Lew Ford, OF

ROTATION
Johan Santana
Boof Bonser
Carlos Silva
Ramon Ortiz
Matt Garza

BULLPEN
Matt Guerrier
J.D. Durbin
Jesse Crain
Pat Neshek
Dennys Reyes
Juan Rincon
Joe Nathan

Now, there are a few things about this roster configuration that might strike you as odd. One such aspect is the presence of seven pitchers in the bullpen and only four bench players. Here is my reasoning:

I see six members of the Twins' bullpen as set in stone, barring injury (Guerrier, Crain, Rincon, Neshek, Reyes, Nathan). Durbin is out of options, meaning that the Twins will almost undoubtedly lose him if they don't keep him on the major-league roster out of spring training. I don't think the Twins are anxious to lose a guy who has been such a highly touted prospect and who posted such solid numbers last season before going down with an injury. With that in mind, I could see them bringing Durbin north as a reliever, filling a similar role to the one Willie Eyre filled last season. Of course, seven relievers is overkill, which is why it would make a lot of sense to trade Rincon or Crain before the season begins.

A four-man bench might seem a little short-handed, but this bench does provide a backup at every position. A seemingly glaring omission is Jason Tyner, who had a pretty good year in 2007. If all three starting outfielders are healthy, I see Tyner's role as redundant with that of Ford, and the Twins already have their left-handed hitting OF/DH-type in Kubel.

Meanwhile, the Rule V pick Machado provides the Twins with the sure-gloved middle infielder they love to have, while Cirillo can back up first and third and occasionally DH against southpaws.

So that's how I see the Twins' 2007 opening day roster shaping up at this point. Like I said, it's subject to change. If anyone else would like to contribute their own preliminary version, feel free to jot it down in the comments section.

Wherefore Art Thou, Romero?

The signing of Ramon Ortiz to a $3.1 million deal is a decision that has been admonished throughout the Twins blogosphere, including here. Many complaints have rightfully focused on the fact that Ortiz is simply not a good pitcher, and rarely has looked like one throughout his career. A number of people have also complained heavily about the fact that the Twins decided to part with a solid prospect in outfielder Alex Romero in order to make room for Ortiz on the 40-man roster. The Twins waived Romero and he was claimed by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Romero is a nice player, but I believe these complaints are overstated.

Romero, a 23-year-old switch-hitter out of Venezuela, has hit .293/.365/.410 over his five-year minor league career. He climbed aggressively through the Twins' system, and started the 2006 season in Triple-A. He struggled at that level, hitting just .250/.300/.301 before finishing the year back at Double-A and hitting a solid .284/.381/.461 there.

Essentially, Romero projects to be a versatile backup outfielder in the majors with good speed and little power. The Twins have at least three guys like that in their system already (Denard Span, Trent Oeltjen, Brandon Roberts), and they have two on their major-league roster (Lew Ford, Jason Tyner). This is all to say that Romero is hardly a unique player and he likely won't be missed as much as some people seem to believe.

One thing that will be missed in Romero is his plate discipline, which was very good throughout his minor league career. He posted a 214/203 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 1,901 minor-league at-bats, and that balanced K/BB is something that many of the other players mentioned above do not possess. However, he has hit only 32 home runs in those 1,901 at-bats and he's not an exceptional base-stealer.

Furthermore, I have heard (admittedly unsubstantiated) rumors indicating Romero had attitude problems that may have alienated him from his coaches.

Personally, a corner outfield prospect that I prefer is Doug Deeds, an Ohio State product who the Twins picked up in the ninth round of the 2002 draft. Deeds is considerably more strikeout-prone than Romero and he doesn't possess the same type of mobility, but he has also shown a much better ability to draw walks and he's a better power threat. Deeds, who holds a .298/.385/.472 line over 1,586 minor-league at-bats, has found himself stuck in Double-A for the past two years but should start the 2007 season in Triple-A and could make an impact in the majors as soon as this year.

Many people felt that it would have made more sense for the Twins to waive 33-year-old catcher Chris Heintz instead of Romero. The fact is that the Twins are more comfortable with a third catcher on their 40-man roster in case Joe Mauer or Mike Redmond should suffer an injury, and they clearly feel that Heintz is the most suitable one in their system. While he is far from an offensive weapon, the Twins seem to believe that he is a competent defender who can run the pitching staff, and that is more valuable than some people give credit for.

In summary, I think that Romero may be missed to some extent, but he tends to be a little overrated as a prospect, especially when people start making outlandish comparisons between him and Grady Sizemore or Shannon Stewart. The Twins still have several speedy outfielder types in their system, and they have a player in Deeds who projects as a better major-league hitter in my opinion. Losing a solid prospect in order to add a player like Ortiz is never a good thing, but if they had to part with someone, the Twins could have done a lot worse than Romero.

TwinsFest

As I did last year, I paid a visit to TwinsFest 2007 today. However, Mr. Nelson did not accompany me this time around, so I represent the blog in this facility. As expected, people are still very exicited about this club despite the way the off-season has gone.

One of the things I enjoyed the most last year was listening in on live interviews on Twins radio. As I did last year, I briefly met Terry Ryan before listening to the interview. Ryan seemed to understand the issues at hand for the Twins, mainly with starting pitching. The unfortunate thing is that, unlike last year, the fans weren't asking questions and instead the discussion was guided by Dan Gladden.

Thus, no one asked why Ryan was so eager to give Ortiz a one-year, $3.1 million contract or his feelings on Sidney Ponson. However, Gladden did prompt Ryan on the youth and their role in the previous year, specifically referencing Matt Garza. Ryan responded that Garza was somewhat "arrogant," but very confident, has four good pitches, and can be a top-of-the-line starter in the very near future. He said that we haven't "seen the real Garza yet."

Ryan seemed to imply that Garza may have a good chance in spring training to get a rotation spot, as he said that the only real focus he and his advisors will have during spring training will be the starting rotation. Let's hope that at least one of the younger pitchers will get a "fair shake," as Ryan would put it.

Ryan also discussed the future of Johan Santana. A recent ESPN article suggests that Santana may be looking for a very big pay-day. His agent Peter Greenberg was quoted as saying, "You're not going to tell me that the Royals have more money than the Twins... Carl Pohlad is one of the richest men in the world."

Many Twins fans, and this site in particular, have been concerned with Santana's future. The article suggests that the Twins have only this off-season to extend Santana's contract or they will have to trade him. Ryan seemed optimistic about the chances of getting extensions done for Santana and others, as he said that players deserve their "fair shake" and that many had outstanding years deserving of high raises.

Ryan, in other words, continued his trademark honesty that makes him so respected amongst his GM peers, who voted him Executive of the Year for the '06 season. I'm not sure the optimism is easily shared after seeing the kind of contracts awful or mediocre pitchers like Gil Meche and Jason Marquis got this off-season, but there is always the chance that Ryan can get Pohlad to drop a little more cash when the potential rewards are considered.

TwinsFest was once again a fun and interesting experience. Personally, I enjoyed my Dome Dog and acquiring Johan Santana, Joe Mauer, and Brad Radke rookie cards on the cheap. Needless to say, its time to get excited about Twins baseball.

Will Span Pan Out?

It wasn't long ago that the Twins' future replacement for Torii Hunter seemed set in stone. As recently as a last year, it appeared that Denard Span would unquestionably be taking over the reigns from Hunter perhaps as soon as the 2007 season. However, after a failure to show progress in the '06 season, Span's future is very much in doubt, and unless he can turn things around he may not project as anything better than a speedy backup outfielder in the majors.

The Twins drafted Span out of high school with their first-round pick in the 2002 draft, making him the 20th overall selection. He was the prototypical Twins' offensive draft pick: an athletic and toolsy player known for his defensive prowess. Span came onto the scene in 2003 with a decent pro debut, hitting .271/.355/.319 in the Appalachian Rookie League as a 19-year-old. His 2004 season was nothing special, but it was 2005 when Span put himself on the map and started to look like the franchise's future center fielder. After cruising to a .339/.410/.403 line with 13 stolen bases and a 25/22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 49 games at High-A Ft. Myers, Span was promoted to Double-A where he hit .285/.355/.345 in 267 at-bats. Span started 2006 back in New Britain, but it seemed certain that his season would end in Triple-A, if not in the majors.

Sadly, Span failed to show any progress. He spent the entire year in Double-A, where he hit .285/.340/.349 over 536 ABs. That line might not look terrible, but it was extremely discouraging for a few reasons. For one thing, it was almost identical to the line he put up in the same league a year before. Secondly, his patience at the plate showed no improvement, as he struck out 78 times while drawing just 40 walks in 581 plate appearances. Span stole 24 bases, which was good for a season-high in his pro career. While 24 swiped bags in a season isn't necessarily bad, it's not exactly earth-shattering and it's fairly disappointing for a guy with lightning speed like Span. (For comparison, Alexi Casilla amassed 50 stolen bases between Ft. Myers and New Britain last year.)

As a speedy slap-hitter with almost no power whatsoever (of his 153 total hits last season, just 24 went for extra bases), Span is in a position where he needs to get on base frequently and use his legs to hurt the opposition in order to be an effective offensive player. With a .340 on-base percentage, he wasn't getting on base enough, and with just 24 stolen bases on 35 attempts, his speed wasn't making him dominant on the base-paths. At this point, it's hard to see him projecting as anything better than a Jason Tyner in the major leagues.

The main thing Span has going for him right now is that he'll turn 23 next month, so he's still young enough to get things turned around and get back on track to start in the big leagues. Because he's getting older and because Hunter will almost certainly be gone following the 2007 season (or perhaps before it's over), this will be a crucial season for Span and he'll have to show some improved discipline at the plate and a readiness to take his game to the next level. Right now, it seems that a prospect like Trent Oeltjen or Brandon Roberts would be a more sufficient starting center fielder for the Twins come 2008.

The Return (Plus Trade Discussion)

As mentioned in the last post, I have reportedly gone missing or I've simply been lazy. Although some of this is true, it doesn't dispute the fact there haven't been many Twins stories to cover this winter, and I've been extremely busy in trying to get into law school. (I believe that in some ways, to be a great blogger, you need to be a lawyer. See this site and this site.)

However, after a long wait, I have returned. Though there aren't many things to talk about before we get started with spring training and the usual round of analysis and predictions before the season, there is a subject I haven't heard much about. That is the possiblity of trading Luis Castillo this season.

After a crazy off-season that has seen money flying around in a way that should scare the Twins, the organization has to consider its future. Castillo isn't making a ton of many and is most definitely a discount in this market at $5.75 million. However, as with Torii Hunter, I don't see it being highly likely that Castillo returns after 2007.

Last year, Castillo ranked third amongst AL second basemen in batting average at .296 and was second in OBP at .358. His lack of power hurt him, though, as his OPS of .728 ranked seventh among ten qualifiers. However, selling another team on a guy who can play solid defense (it would seem, at least, when he is motivated to), hits for average, and has patience at the top of the order shouldn't be hard.

The good news for the Twins is that they seem to have a guy waiting in the wings in Alexi Casilla. Casilla might not be quite ready at this point, but that doesn't seem like an issue since Terry Ryan likely won't consider trade options until the middle of the season anyways.

Hopefully Ryan considers the option soon, while teams get increasingly desperate for players below market price. It's highly unlikely that the Twins will keep Castillo and they may not have the requisite pitching and hitting required to compete in the AL Central. No offense to any optimists out there, but Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz are a long way from serious solutions to making a playoff rotation. You don't round out a pitching rotation for a competitive team by getting three of the worst starting pitchers in the majors from the previous year all together.

Having said that, the Twins may be able to get some minor league pitching prospects for the future or some of the hitting they desperately need by trading Castillo. Since the team seems desperate to trust experience over youth, they may not even consider such a trade. But at this point it seems that it may be worthwhile to look to 2008 for a realistic run instead of 2007.

How'd We Do?

It's becoming a tradition around here for Mr. Mosvick and I to make spring predictions for the upcoming season regarding which teams will head to the playoffs and which players will win the big awards. It's still a little early to be doing the Nicks' Picks for the 2007 season, but it's always interesting to go back and take a look at how we did the year before. With that in mind, I'm going to take a look back at our pre-season predictions from last year and see how we did. For a competitive twist, we'll each get a point for a correct prediction, and the winner can brag for a day.

AL WEST CHAMP

Nick M. said: Oakland
Nick N. said: Oakland

Actual winner: Oakland

Fairly easy prediction. +1 each.

AL CENTRAL CHAMP

Nick M. said: Cleveland
Nick N. said: Cleveland

Actual winner: Minnesota

Well, at least we were both idiots.

AL EAST CHAMP

Nick M. said: New York
Nick N. said: New York

Actual winner: New York

Huge surprise. Tied at two.

AL WILD CARD CHAMP

Nick M. said: Minnesota
Nick N. said: Minnesota

Actual winner: Detroit

This would have been correct if not for that crazy last day of the season. For what it's worth, several people in the comment section thought we were crazy for predicting the Twins to make the playoffs at all.

NL WEST CHAMP

Nick M. said: Los Angeles
Nick N. said: Los Angeles

Actual winner: San Diego

So far, we had both been very creative and independent. Still knotted at two.

NL CENTRAL CHAMP

Nick M. said: St. Louis
Nick N. said: St. Louis

Actual winner: St. Louis

3-3.

NL EAST CHAMP

Nick M. said: New York
Nick N. said: Atlanta

Actual winner: New York

Crud. Mosvick takes the lead, 4-3.

NL WILD CARD WINNER

Nick M. said: Atlanta
Nick N. said: New York

Actual winner: Los Angeles

Nope.

AL MVP

Nick M. said: Alex Rodriguez
Nick N. said: Alex Rodriguez

Actual winner: Justin Morneau

This is the least disappointed I've ever been about being wrong.

NL MVP

Nick M. said: Albert Pujols
Nick N. said: Albert Pujols

Actual winner: Ryan Howard

We should've been right on this one.

AL CY YOUNG

Nick M. said: Johan Santana
Nick N. said: Roy Halladay

Actual winner: Johan Santana

Halladay had a good year, but Santana was unquestionably the best. Mosvick takes a commanding 5-3 lead.

NL CY YOUNG

Nick M. said: Jake Peavy
Nick N. said: Carlos Zambrano

Actual winner: Brandon Webb

The NL was as tough to predict one day before the results were announced as it was before the season started. No one exactly ran away with this award.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Nick M. said: Joel Zumaya
Nick N. said: Francisco Liriano

Actual winner: Justin Verlander

Liriano could've won it if he'd stayed healthy.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Nick M. said: Matt Cain
Nick N. said: Jeremy Hermida

Actual winner: Hanley Ramirez

Swing and a miss.

---

Alas, it wasn't a very great year for predictions on either part, but Nick M. did a little better to pick up a 5-3 victory. The predictions for 2007 will be coming in March at some point, and hopefully we can get some readers involved in the contest this year as well.

Getting Back Up To Speed

First off, let me apologize for the relative lack of updates this off-season. Be assured, it has more to do with the Twins' inactivity and less to do with us neglecting our duties. As for Mr. Mosvick... he hasn't posted anything since Dec. 20 and is at this point presumed dead. Or lazy.

Anyway, as the calendar rolls into February and spring training draws near, the updates should start to kick up around here, and we can start whining about the sad state of the Twins' 2007 pitching rotation.

Meanwhile, feel free to check out the Q&A we did with our good friend Seth Stohs over at SethSpeaks.net.

Picking at the Scrap Heap

Some things are just painfully predictable.

On Jan. 2, I wrote an article called The SP Dilemma that weighed some of the Twins' options to fill their need for help in the rotation. When addressing the subject of free agency, I mentioned two names as good possibilities: Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Shortly I made that post, the Twins went out and signed Ponson. Today, it has come to light that the team will be handing Ortiz a one-year contract worth $3.1 million.

Like Ponson, Ortiz was a disaster last season. Playing in a pitcher-friendly park in Washington, Ortiz went 11-16 with a 5.57 ERA, striking out 104 and walking 64 in 190 2/3 innings. He posted a 3.77 ERA for the Angels during their championship season of 2002, but in the four years since he has posted a 5+ ERA three times, and at age 33 it's fairly unrealistic to expect a bounce-back.

Alas, the Twins continue to pick at the free agent scrap heap. This deal has to be seen as worse than the Ponson signing because it's for considerably more money and Ortiz is pretty much just as bad. Throughout his career, Ortiz has lacked control, he's been homer-prone, and he's been utterly hittable. There are few positive things to say about him, although I'm sure we'll hear the term "innings eater" get thrown around (despite the fact that he hasn't thrown 200+ innings since '02).

The distressing thing about these signings is that they represent a sad trend that the Twins are continuing to follow, which is showing a complete lack of faith in their young talent and opting instead for over-priced veterans who are mediocre or worse. Last year they decided to go with Juan Castro, Tony Batista and Kyle Lohse over Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto and Francisco Liriano. Those foolish decisions nearly ruined their season. This year, it looks like they might go with Ponson, Ortiz and Carlos Silva over quality young arms like Matt Garza, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey. My hope is that Ponson and Ortiz have been brought in simply to compete in spring training and that the Twins will go north with the best pitchers, but we've seen in the past that gaudy spring training numbers sometimes still aren't enough to detach the Twins from their vet obsession (like when Bartlett hit .360 in spring training last year and still couldn't beat out Castro for the starting job).

I'm not saying that all three of the young guys I mentioned are ready to be full-time major-league starters, but the fact that all three might have to start the season in the minors in favor of a bunch of guys that posted ERAs upward of 5.50 last season is absurd. I'm pretty sure that anyone from the group of Garza, Perkins, Slowey and Scott Baker could post an ERA like that (at worst) and they'd at least be gaining big-league valuable experience while doing it.

It's unclear at this point what the Twins are going to do with these new players they've signed. Perhaps a bad showing in spring training will keep them out of the 2007 rotation. Whatever the case, I know this much: the thought of Silva, Ponson and Ortiz in the same rotation is extremely painful. It could be a lonnng year.

The Future of Santana

Back in the late '90s, I remember lamenting about the fact that the Twins had few, if any, nationally recognizable names. The team never got coverage in the big media because they simply didn't have players people got excited about.

Oh, how things change. By the end of the 2006 season, the Twins' roster was chock full of star power. There was a Major League batting champion in Joe Mauer. An American League MVP in Justin Morneau. A Rookie of the Year candidate in Francisco Liriano. An elite closer in Joe Nathan. And, most importantly, a two-time Cy Young Award winner in Johan Santana.

Of course, the problem with boasting this many big-name players is that they all eventually command a large salary to coincide with their super-star status. It presents an especially vexing dilemma for a small-market team like the Twins, whose budget does not enable them to cut mega-deals with numerous players. With the free-agent market going crazy this off-season, there really couldn't be a worse time for the Twins' roster to be brimming with rising stars who are just hitting their arbitration years. Hammering out multi-year deals that will keep players like Mauer and Morneau around will be difficult, yet doable. Accomplishing those tasks while keeping Santana around, however, is starting to look like an impossible proposition.

Santana, who has been baseball's best pitcher over the past three years, has two years left on the four year, $40 million contract he signed prior to the 2005 season. There was a time when it seemed like the Twins might be able to re-sign Santana near the conclusion of this deal and perhaps keep the dominant left-hander in a Twins' uniform for the entirety of his career; unfortunately, recent events might have put thoughts of such a plan out of reach.

I suppose I should say there is one particular recent event may have crushed these dreams, and that was the contract that Barry Zito signed with the San Francisco Giants near the end of December. Zito's deal is for seven years and it averages out to $18 million/year -- an absolutely absurd contract that puts an exclamation point on an off-season that has been full of outrageous deals for over-valued starting pitchers.

Zito is a very good pitcher with a relatively impressive track record, but he is not even close to being on the same level as Santana. Zito, 28, sports a 3.55 career ERA and is a three-time All Star. He also won a Cy Young Award in 2002. His strongest points are his endurance and durability -- he has pitched 200+ innings in each of the last six seasons. Santana, who currently holds a 3.20 career ERA, will be 29 when his contract expires and could well have three or four Cy Youngs sitting in his cabinet by that time. He has averaged 231 innings per season since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. In those three years, Santana has led the American League in ERA twice, wins once, and strikeouts three times. That's a résumé that makes Zito's look pretty wimpy, even if you ignore the fact that Zito has been a full-time starter for six years compared to Santana's three.

With all that in mind, it's frightening as a Twins fan to think about how much Santana could command as a free agent. If Zito is worth $18 million, how much does that make Santana worth? $25 million? More?

The sad fact is that Santana will likely be completely unaffordable for the Minnesota Twins once his current bargain contract is up. With a hometown discount and a payroll increase based on the approach of a new stadium, re-upping Santana might be possible, but it would cripple the team financially. And with that in mind, Terry Ryan may have to start thinking about the possibility of trading Johan within the next couple years.

Just typing out such a thought makes me sick. Santana is probably my favorite player -- a historically great pitcher without much of an ego. He seems like a genuinely nice guy, and it is a joy to watch him work each five days. Still, if it comes down to a choice between keeping him for an extra season/half-season and letting him walk away for nothing, or dealing him early for a wealth of near-ready prospects, the latter option makes a lot more sense.

ESPN.com writer Bob Klapisch created some waves among Twins fans a couple weeks ago when he made the following statement in an article he wrote:

"Of course, it's possible the Yankees' sudden accumulation of young, cheap talent that would be acquired in both the Johnson and Gary Sheffield deals is leading to a mega-swap with the Twins, who've undoubtedly calculated (and fainted at) the cost of keeping Johan Santana after he becomes a free agent in two years. Cashman's army of youngsters might be the escape the Twins would need, given that Barry Zito is now earning $18 million per year."

The Yankees have always seemed like a natural eventual destination for Santana, what with their massive payroll and their perpetual need for great pitching to complement their monstrous offense. And while I don't think that any of the prospects the Yankees have acquired this off-season are good enough to pry away Santana (with the possible expection of the impressive yet highly injury-prone Humberto Sanchez), there are a few players in the New York's system that could be packaged in a reasonably fair deal.

The obvious name for those who follow baseball prospects is Philip Hughes. At 20 years old, Hughes found himself already in Double-A by the end of last season, where he went 10-3 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 116 innings, racking up 138 strikeouts while walking just 32. Hughes is one of the brightest prospects in baseball, and is so good the Yankees would no doubt be extremely hesitant to part with him, but it seems that his name would almost have to be involved in a deal for Santana.

Another player in the Yankees' system that would intrigue the Twins is Jose Tabata, an 18-year-old outfielder from Venezuela who has hit .303/.379/.419 in a pair of seasons as a pro. Acquiring Tabata would give the Twins an extremely promising future player at a corner outfield spot, which would be nice with Jason Kubel's future uncertain and Cuddyer set to become expensive within the next few years.

One other particularly interesting name in the Yankees system is the young pitcher Dellin Betances. At 6'9" and 215 pounds, Betances is a unique prospect who has been tagged with the nickname "Baby Unit." Baseball America ranks Betances as the third-best prospect in the Yankees' system behind Hughes and Tabata, and there's a chance that the Twins could ask for him instead of Hughes as the potential ace that would have to be included in a Santana deal.

Additionally, there are a few young players already on the Yankees' major-league roster that would fit well with the Twins, including second baseman Robinson Cano and outfielder Melky Cabrera.

So at this point it appears that New York would be a logical destination for Santana if the Twins were to decide to trade him before the conclusion of his contract. The Yankees have the type of payroll that would allow them to sign Santana to a monster deal, and they have plenty of young talent to piece together an attractive offer to pry him away from the Twins. And while the thought of opening that new ballpark in 2010 without Santana as the team's ace is fairly depressing, the thought of having a rotation that potentially includes Hughes, Liriano and Matt Garza is awfully exciting.

There is no assurance that the Twins will trade Santana, and even if they do it would almost undoubtedly be at least a year away. Still, Klapisch's mention of the Yankees as a potential trade partner makes a lot of sense (though not necessarily by his reasoning) and in a slow off-season like this, it's enough to merit discussion. The Twins have traded a star player in his prime to the Yankees for a crop of prospects before (see: Knoblauch, Charles) and by the time 2008 rolls around we could see them do it again. For the future of the franchise, it might be the wisest choice.

An Inadequate Answer

On Tuesday I wrote on this blog about the dilemma the Twins have found themselves in, badly needing a starting pitcher with just six weeks remaining until players report to Ft. Myers for spring training. One day after I wrote this article, the Twins made news by signing Sidney Ponson to an incentive-laden one-year contract that could be worth up to $3 million.

In the article I wrote Tuesday, I brought up Ponson as a possible signing for the Twins and said the following:

Ponson has intrigued scouts because he can throw hard and he had a few solid years with the Orioles. Ponson is still only [30], but he has poor control and his numbers over the past three seasons have been exceptionally ugly. At this point, it's unrealistic to expect him to put up better numbers than Silva did last year.

It is an unfortunate truth. No doubt there will be optimists who look at Ponson's 2003 campaign (216 IP, 17-12 record, 3.75 ERA, 134 K/66 BB) and see no reason why he can't return to that form with a fresh start in Minnesota, especially with a pitching coach in Rick Anderson who has proven himself as a magician time and time again. Sadly, that simply isn't very likely. Ponson has had just one good season outside of his '03 campaign (that one coming in 2002) and he has shown steady decline in his numbers over the past three years.

On top of his poor on-the-field performance, Ponson has struggled with alcohol and legal issues for the past several years. He has been arrested for driving under the influence on multiple occasions and in 2004 was arrested in Aruba for assaulting a judge.

The contract that Ponson signed was a minor-league deal, meaning there is no promise of a major-league roster spot. This is potentially good news, because it indicates that Terry Ryan is keeping his options open. The question now is whether Ryan signed Ponson as a backup plan in case one of the young guys (or another signing or trade) doesn't pan out, or as a legitimate member of the 2007 rotation. My guess is that much will depend on what Ponson looks like in spring training, and if he looks as bad as he did last year, he won't make the roster.

The SP Dilemma

With the annual Winter Meetings out of the way and spring training just a couple months away (already... can you believe it?), the Twins have filled a few holes in their roster and seem dedicated to keeping things the same as last year as much as possible. They made moves to bring back Carlos Silva, Torii Hunter and Rondell White; they added some depth to their infield by signing Jeff Cirillo; and they signed a couple long-shots to minor-league contracts. They also brought in a kid in the Rule V draft by the name of Alejandro Machado, who I think has a good shot at making the roster as a utility man.

The case can be made that the Twins' roster is pretty much set offensively (although certainly not in ideal terms). Each starting position is filled, with Justin Morneau, Luis Castillo, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett manning the infield; Joe Mauer returning at catcher; and the trio of Rondell White, Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer occupying the outfield spots. Jason Kubel appears to be the top choice at designated hitter at this point in time. The bench will likely comprise Mike Redmond, Cirillo, Jason Tyner and Lew Ford, with the last few spots remaining up for grabs.

Likewise, the bullpen seems essentially set in stone, with each hurler from the phenomenal 2006 unit set to return.

While these aspects of the roster appear to be in relatively good shape, one unit remains in a major state of flux: the starting rotation. With Brad Radke retiring and Francisco Liriano gone for the year in the aftermath of his elbow operation, the Twins are left with at least one gaping hole in their rotation. Finding a reasonably priced starter via free agency or trade was Terry Ryan's top goal coming into the off-season, and during the first couple months he has been unable to take care of it. During that span, many options have come off the market. Mid-level starters like Vicente Padilla, Gil Meche, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis have signed (albeit ridiculous) contracts, and a few potential trade targets, such as Jason Jennings, have already been moved.

At this point, three spots in the rotation appear to be locked up by Johan Santana, Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva. Another spot may go to Matt Garza, who has good stuff and may be ready after getting some seasoning last year. That final spot in the rotation, however, remains a question mark. It is possible that Ryan will not make a move, and he will look at another of the younger and inexperienced pitchers in the Twins system, such as Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey. Scott Baker is another possible option, but his stock has dropped considerably after an extremely disappointing 2006 campaign.

Since Perkins and Slowey (or any other of the Twins promising minor league starters for that matter) have almost no major league experience, it's tough to see Ryan going into the season with one of them occupying a spot in the rotation. Clearly, Ryan is a guy who values experience (Juan Castro over Jason Bartlett, anyone?), so the notion that be content with a rotation that included Bonser, Garza AND another inexperienced youngster is almost unthinkable.

The more likely outcome remains a veteran acquisition. As was noted above, many possible targets are no longer available, but there are still a few guys out there that Ryan might take a look at. One such pitcher is free agent Sidney Ponson, who posted a 6.25 ERA in 85 innings between the Cardinals and Yankees last season. Ponson has intrigued scouts because he can throw hard and he had a few solid years with the Orioles. Ponson is still only 29, but he has poor control and his numbers over the past three seasons have been exceptionally ugly. At this point, it's unrealistic to expect him to put up better numbers than Silva did last year. Another free agent the Twins have reportedly spoken to is Ramon Ortiz, a 33-year-old right-hander who pitched for the Nationals last season. Like Ponson, Ortiz has not pitched well over the past several seasons, although his numbers have not been quite as bad. Having either of these pitchers in the same rotation as Silva could be a recipe for disaster, and might be a stretch to expect pitching coach Rick Anderson to work his magic and orchestrate a career revival for any of them.

While free agency bears little promise for the Twins' starting pitching dilemma, a trade always remains possible. I haven't heard any serious rumors pop up since the Jennings trade failed to materialize, but the Twins do have some valuable trade nuggets that they could afford to part with (such as Juan Rincon and Baker).

However they go about it, it is important that the Twins add another arm to their rotation if they expect to contend this season. Ryan should probably look to make a move in the near future before all of his options evaporate.

Another Look at the Rondell Re-Signing

In a move that most of us were expecting, the Twins re-signed Rondell White today, inking a one-year deal worth $2.75 million. Much like the contract White signed with the Twins last winter, this one includes a second-year option as well as incentives for reaching 650 plate appearances in each of those seasons.

Of course, the Twins are hoping that White can hit like he did in the second half of the 2006 season, when he posted a .321/.354/.538 line with seven homers and 23 RBI over 156 at-bats. If he's able to perform anywhere near that level offensively, the salary the Twins are paying him will be a bargain when you take into account the deals being signed around the league. Then again, we have to remember that White was totally incapable of hitting the ball for a solid four months last year. The hope is that most of White's early struggles were a result of his ailing shoulder affecting his plate approach during the first few months of the season, with his solid performance down the stretch signifying that the problems were behind him. That's a reasonable thought process, and it gives me optimism that White can piece together a solid campaign and provide the type of right-handed consistency that the Twins need in their order.

At this point, it seems that the team's tentative plan is to feature White as their regular left fielder while starting Jason Kubel at designated hitter. White is not a good defender, but Kubel is a wild-card at this point and if his knee problems continue to limit his range in the outfield it's probably for the best that he sticks at DH for the time being. With Lew Ford and Jason Tyner available as late-game defensive replacements, White's sub par fielding ability should not be a major problem. Of course, if Kubel is back at full health, I'd much rather see him out in left; the notion that White cannot hit as well without playing the field is quite silly to me.

If White can retain the form that he showed in the latter months of the '06 season and some other players can build on the success they had last year, the Twins should have a pretty decent offense in 2007. Much will depend on Jason Bartlett's ability to hit like he did when he first came up (.342 average June-August) and not like he did at the end of the year (.228 average in September) as well as Nick Punto's ability to show consistency over the entirety of the season.

And, of course, RonDL's ability to stay healthy and hit the way we know he's capable of.

Radke Retires, White Re-Signs

For a very slow and uneventful offseason, this week has actually been "action-packed." Yesterday was probably one of the sadder days Twins fans have recently witnessed. Brad Radke, the 12-year veteran pitcher, officially retired. Now, unless you really thought there was a chance Radke would return, there was no surprise in this.

With that in mind, like many others out there, its fair to "memorialize" Brad in a way. He did, after all, give twelve very good years to the Twins organization and its fans, along with his right arm. I don't want to retread too much on things I've said before, but if there is one thing to remember Radke by, its his sheer will and determation.

There were many things over the years that endeared me to Radke. While constantly frustrated by his infamous first-inning struggles, the man constantly gave his team a chance and watching him pitch was always a joy. His effortless delivery and impeccable control was something to be amazed at. Radke was also the model of what altheletes should try to be. He stuck with the team that drafted him for less money twice out of loyalty and because it seemed like the avid outdoorsman liked Minnesota for the same reasons many of us do.

He was always soft-spoken, honest, and a professional. He never made offhand comments about teammates or his managers. He didn't point the finger. Instead, he just pitched his heart out every fifth game. And, of course, like so many this year, you it was impossible to not be effective by how much Radke gave this season, pitching with a torn labrum and a stress fracture in his shoulder. We'll never know how much pain he really pitched through, but we know how much he cared about the game, his teammates, and winning ballgames for the fans of the Minnesota Twins.

I'm going to miss Brad Radke this next year for sure, but I have to happy to have had the chance to watch the guy compete all these years. And no one can be really upset; the guy deserves his time now with his family.

As for other Twins news, Rondell White signed a one-year deal with the Twins yesterday. According to the Associated Press release, White has a second-year option and with performance bonuses, White could make $8.5 million if he has 650 plate appearances or more in each of the next two seasons. The one-year deal is for a guaranteed $2.75 million and will be completed once White passes a physical.

White's batting line last year was a unspectacular .246/.276/.365 with only 7 HRs and 38 RBI. He also, notably, scored only 32 runs in 337 at-bats, which is alarmingly low number. Naturally, many have pointed to his second half numbers as a marker of success, as he hit .321/.354/.538 with all seven homers and 23 RBI. Of course, he also hit only .143/.143/.357 in 28 August at-bats and was a ghastly .241/.281/.322 with RISP. His inconsistency was the major problem; he was actually almost halfway decent in May as a DH, hitting .263, but with no power. He had three awful months, in April, June, and August, one marginally better month in May, and two good months in July and September.

The most important split, though, is between his stats as a DH and as a left-fielder. Playing the outfield, he hit .328/.366/.507 and DHing, he hit .194/.215/.276. Obviously, because the Twins are worried about White's age (35 next year) and injury history, the second-year option only kicks in with 525 plate appearances. I'd also be concerned about White's general inconsistency and his awful arm in left-field. The Twins already spent the last few years with noodle-arms in left-field, particularly with the defensively-challenged Shannon Stewart.

However, at $2.75 million, its hard to complain too much considering the market. Let's remember that in recent days, a pitcher who had a 6.02 ERA got a three-year, $21 million deal when he should have gotten an incentive-laden contract instead and numerous other mediocre players have been raking in the money from clubs foolish enough to give them long-term deals.

With the White and Cirillo deals, the Twins haven't exactly done tons in the offseason, but they have made a smart investments. Neither contract is long-term or for high amounts of money, meaning that even if White is hurt or inconsistent or if Cirillo falls off very quickly, it won't hurt the Twins that much. These are, in that sense, the kind of deals the Twins have to make while they focus on the all-important extensions for Mauer, Morneau, and company.

Twins Add Cirillo

After making handing minor-league contracts to a pair of relief pitchers and a designated hitter within the past couple weeks, the Twins made their first legitimate move of the off-season today by signing third baseman Jeff Cirillo away from the Brewers. Cirillo, 37, will likely serve as a backup option at third base and first base and may also fill the DH role on occasion.

While Cirillo's one-year, $1.25 million deal is similar to the one Tony Batista signed prior to last season, it should be noted that Cirillo is essentially the anti-Batista. Cirillo has never really been known for his power, but he hits for good average, controls the strike zone and plays solid defense.

Once upon a time in his career, Cirillo was an absolute stud. In 1999 with the Brewers, he hit .326/.401/.461 with 15 HR and 88 RBI. He then moved on to Colorado, where he had two highly productive seasons. In 2002, Cirillo moved on to Seattle, where things fell apart completely for him. In his first season with the Mariners, he hit just .249/.301/.328. The next season those numbers dropped to .205/.284/.271. In 2004 Cirillo hit .213 in 75 at-bats with the Padres and it seemed at age 34 perhaps things were coming to a close. Instead, Cirillo caught on with the Brewers and had a bit of a revival, hitting .281/.373/.427 in 185 at-bats in 2005 and maintaining that production last year by batting .319/.369/.414 last year.

In an off-season where outrageous contracts are being signed by mediocre players around the league, Cirillo seems like a sneaky bargain. He's no spring chicken and his most productive days as a hitter are likely behind him, but he fills some major areas of need for the Twins. He gives them needed depth at third base as well as first base, and he's a right-handed hitter who hits extremely well against southpaws. Perhaps most importantly, Cirillo provides an insurance plan in case Nick Punto struggles offensively in 2007. While Punto had a nice overall season in '06, it cannot be ignored that he hit just .267 with zero power outside of the month of July. If Punto is stagnant offensively in the upcoming season, Cirillo would be able to take over at third, allowing Punto to return to his utility role. Cirillo would also be able to take over the hot corner in the event that the gimpy Luis Castillo becomes injured and unable to play and Punto has to slide over to second.

Much like with the Batista signing last year, the Twins have brought in a former All-Star third baseman who has fallen from glory in recent years. Unlike Batista, however, Cirillo has been a competent player over the past couple seasons and there is reason to think he can be a valuable asset to the Twins. This is a good signing that strengthens the team's bench immensely heading into the 2007 campaign.

Recent Developments

As most Twins fans know, the Twins have been seriously lagging behind in the offseason. It's tempting to say thats a good thing, considering how insane the market is. It was recently reported that Jason Marquis signed a three-year deal with the Cubs worth between $20 and $28 million. The guy, if you remember, had a 6.02 ERA last year. It used to be that if you were that awful, you had to do an incentive-laden deal.

There is another guy much like Marquis, who had one good year with a 3.71 ERA a few years back, that the Twins reportedly have interest in: Sidney Ponson. This, apparently, is Terry Ryan's solution to the off-season need of a pitcher. As Kelly Thesier, the Twins beat reporter, tells us, "with Ryan's reluctance to deal any of the organization's talented young arms or some of the club's bullpen depth, it could be another year of testing the lower tiers of free agency to find a fit." Instead of pursuing Colorado right-hander Jason Jennings, the Twins are instead looking at the veteran Ponson, whom the Twins want to sign to a minor-league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Like Marquis, Ponson was simply awful last year. He pitched 85 innings, allowing 108 hits, a 6.25 ERA, a 1.69 WHIP, and a 48/36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Yikes. Sure, he had one good year in 2003, going 17-12 with a 3.75 with the Giants and Orioles, but his control was never particularly great, even in that year. The Twins would likely point to pitching coach Rick Anderson, who may be able to help him with control and pitching in general, but a 29-year-old pitcher with alcohol issues and no control is not exactly a solution.

Pursuing Jennings was the best option for the Twins and they should know it. Hiding behind the logic of protecting young pitchers and bullpen depth is fine most of the time, but it doesn't really work in this situation. As a major league team, you have to take chances in order to get to the World Series. The ALCS debacle against Oakland exposed a need that for starting pitching beyond Johan Santana and Boof Bonser as well as a need for some more offensive depth.

Jennings would give the Twins innings and a solid ERA, something Ponson certainly can't be counted on for. And Carlos Silva isn't the solution either, even if he comes at a discount price considering this year's insane contracts. Giving up a rapidly aging and growingly mediocre Juan Rincon and a prospect like Scott Baker is not such a bad thing. Especially when the Twins have Matt Garza, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and plenty of others waiting in line.

As for bats, the Twins plan is also not so great. At this point it sounds like it will be Jason Kubel at DH and Rondell White in left field. Unless Kubel miraculously gets a "new conditioning" program, it's doubtful he'll be healthy enough to go all year at the position and put up good numbers. And White, though he hits fine, is an awful defender in left. Settling because of the market is incredibly naive and probably won't work in the end. There are deals to be had out there.

For one, replace Jason Tyner with a guy like Kenny Lofton. Lofton is 39, but he plays defense basically the way Tyner does, he stole 32 bases last year (unlike Tyner, who never uses his speed on the basepaths), and Lofton has occasional power. Lofton also hit .301 last year, so the Twins wouldn't lose Tyner's precious batting average. At DH, there is 34-year-old Cliff Floyd. Floyd has had a bad injury history, but he has had a few good years and DH suits him well. He is basically this year's Rondell White.

There is also third baseman Jeff Cirillo, whom the Twins are also reportedly interested in. He was great years ago, but has no power left. He'd been fine for infield depth, but he won't give the Twins what they need. And don't even mention Shea Hillenbrand. Sure, Lofton and Floyd would cost the Twins $7-8 million, about all they have to spend, but it would be better than standing pat.

As it stands, the only offensive signing the Twins have made this off-season was the acquisition of Royal wash-out Ken Harvey. They signed him a minor-league deal yesterday, and apparently view him as a potential answer at DH. Harvey was a good minor-league hitter, posting a .330/.390/.508 line, but he hasn't shown enough power at the major-league level to be a legitimate DH-type and back injuries have limited him to 12 games total over the past two seasons.

Also, the Twins lost several players in the recent Rule V draft without picking up much of anything. The Twins had pitchers Justin Jones, Kevin Cameron and Levale Speigner snagged away, as well as outfielder Erold Andrus. Of course, all four players would have to spend the entire 2007 season with the major-league clubs in order for the Twins not to get them back, which is unlikly in most of those cases. I could see Jones sticking with the Nationals though, who are a cellar-dwelling team that is badly in need of left-handed pitching. Who did the Twins get out of the Rule V? Most notably, Alejandro Machado from the Washington Nationals, who batted .260 with 12 doubles, four triples, four home runs and 32 RBIs in 116 games with Boston's Triple-A club. Great. Another shortstop who plays defense and can't hit and has no power.

Here's what Vern Followell, the Twins' pro scouting coordinator, had to say: "He's a middle infielder and a veteran player, which is a different sort of player than we usually take in the Draft...He has a lot of experience and is more of a defensive guy. But we are looking for backup help at the Major League level and we're hoping that he can fit." Sounds like a Juan Castro clone.

This is yet another example of the problem with the Twins offseason: more of the same. Didn't the organization learn from last year's issues? The team needs more infielders who can't hit and they need more consistent power throughout the order. They need better pitchers than Ponson to round out their rotation. The Twins are right to avoid the ridiculous free-agent signings, but there are good deals to be had out there and that is what they should be pursuing.

You Must Be Kidding

I can no longer withhold my bewilderment at the absolutely ridiculous contracts being signed this off-season. Three years and $34 million for Vicente Padilla? Gil Meche wants 4 years/$40 million?! Outrageous. I've heard much complaining about Alfonso Soriano's $136 million mega-deal, but at least that guy has done something to deserve a big payday. Padilla and Meche are career mediocrities. How could they possibly be worth upwards of $10 million per year? All these ridiculous pitching deals have got to be making the Twins feel good about having a wealth of young cheap starters who have shown an ability to pitch at least competently at the major-league level.

From everything I've read and overheard during the past few weeks, I have formulated a prediction for the Twins' off-season. I think they'll trade Juan Rincon and Scott Baker to the Rockies for Jason Jennings. That sets up the first four starters for their 2007 rotation: Johan Santana, Jennings, Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva. That would leave the fifth spot open for either Matt Garza or Glen Perkins, and it would probably depend on which young hurler has a better spring.

I believe that that will be the extent of the Twins' involvement in winter transactions. I think they'll re-sign Rondell White to return at designated hitter and then they'll concentrate on hammering out some multi-year deals with their middle-of-the-lineup hitters.

That might not be a very exciting off-season haul, but it would be a very typical one for Terry Ryan and the Twins. Personally, I'd be perfectly happy with the rotation laid out above, which could be very solid outside of Silva. It's worth keeping in mind that Garza is something of a wild card; he was very much rushed to the big leagues in 2006, but his dominant numbers in the minors would suggest that with the experience he collected and with an off-season of preparation, he could do some impressive things in '07. I don't foresee a Liriano-esque breakout, but Garza's got electric stuff and he knows how to pitch.

Of course, while I do expect the Twins to bring in Jennings and to perhaps add a couple bargain-bin free agents, I don't think any of these moves are particularly imminent. As La Velle E. Neal III notes in today's Star Tribune, Ryan is perfectly content with sitting back and patiently waiting for things to fall into place. That might not be ideal for us Twins fans who are antsy to see the 2007 Twins team start to fall into place, but we'll just have to make due.

Making Moves

With the annual GM winter meetings taking place this week, baseball's Hot Stove is getting ready to heat up. As we've discussed previously on this blog, it is unlikely that the Twins will be major players in the market this off-season, but that doesn't mean they won't do anything. I expect to see them take part in a relatively minor trade or two and I believe they'll sign a couple lower-level free agents.

I haven't seen the Twins pop up in a whole lot of trade rumors, but one player that Terry Ryan is reportedly shopping is Juan Rincon. Apparently the Astros and Rockies have interest in the right-handed reliever, and as Rotoworld.com notes, Morgan Ensberg would be a nice return. Ensberg, a 31-year-old third baseman, would be a good fit for the Twins, who could use a powerful right-handed bat in their lineup. Ensberg batted just .235 last year, but he walked 101 times in 495 plate appearances and still managed 23 home runs. In 2005, Ensberg was phenomenal, hitting .283/.388/.557 with 36 homers and 101 RBI. If he could return anywhere close to that form, he would be tremendously valuable addition to the Twins' lineup. I doubt the Astros would be willing to part with Ensberg for just Rincon, so Ryan would probably have to put together a package of some sort.

While they might dabble with some trades, Ryan and his staff will probably be spending most of their effort in the coming weeks on negotiating long-term contracts with Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. All three are arbitration-eligible and all three are in line for big raises. For the short term and for the long term, it would be best if the Twins could lock all three players up with reasonable multi-year contracts, but that will depend on the players and their agents. Obviously the deals being signed around the league over the past month have not helped the Twins' chances of getting a good deal on any of these elite players.

It should be an interesting week, and here's hoping that Ryan and his staff can make some moves to help improve this team in 2007 and beyond.

More MVP Thoughts

Reactions to Justin Morneau's winning of the 2006 AL MVP have ranged from subdued excitement from Twins fans to unabashed disgust portrayed by the national media. For my part, I certainly can admit that Morneau probably was not the most deserving candidate, but I do believe he was closer than a lot of people (even Twins fans) are giving credit for.

When it comes to MVP consideration, I think the best metaphor is this:

Pretend that immediately following the 2006 season, every American League team released all of their players and put them into one big pool, and each team was forced to draft all their players from scratch. Imagine that you are the general manager of the team with the No. 1 pick, and you must choose a player to build your team around. Keep in mind that your team's objective is only to find success in the first season following the draft, so the age of the player is inconsequential.

Who would you select with that pick? Would you take Justin Morneau or Jermaine Dye? Perhaps; those are probably the most desirable players at their respective positions, but the fact is that both first base and right field are deep in offensive talent, so you could probably find a pretty good hitter at either position in the later rounds. Would you use the pick on a DH like Frank Thomas, Travis Hafner or David Ortiz? Well, it would be difficult to justify using that top pick to take a player who can't even play a defensive position. Would you select Derek Jeter? He might be a good choice; you can count on him to hit for great average and he gives you good speed on the basepaths. He also plays a highly important defensive position (albeit not particularly well). However, Jeter will provide very little power, and it's certainly worth questioning whether you'd really want to build your team around a table-setter type. A similar argument surrounds Joe Mauer. He hit for the best average in the league and he has excellent plate discipline, yet he lacks power. In his support, he plays the most important defensive position on the field and he plays it extremely well. Mauer would not be a bad pick by any means. Neither would Grady Sizemore, who is the complete package. He plays a position that is not deep in offensive talent, and he plays it well. He hits for good average and great power, and he can draw walks (he is, however, quite strikeout-prone). The fact that he played in all 162 of his team's games in the 2006 season is a testament to his durability.

If it were me picking, I personally would use that top draft pick on Johan Santana. He may play only once every five games, but his impact in those games is great enough that I feel he is more valuable than any of the offensive players listed above. Still, I don't think this is a year where one player set himself apart to the degree that any one of the players listed above would be a ridiculously bad selection. And I certainly see the sound logic behind choosing Morneau.

Sure, Morneau plays first base, and there are a number of good offensive first basemen around the league, which inherently reduces Morneau's overall value. Still, when you look at the season he had, there are a lot of things which scream of high value. His overall line was terrific: .321/.375/.559 with 34 home runs and 130 RBI. I'm not sure that I buy into the hype about his "greatest four-month stretch in modern history." He had a great span, to be sure, but you have to look at the year as a whole and you can't ignore the fact that he was pretty awful for the first month-and-a-half or so.

Morneau came through when it counted though. He hit .323/.401/.575 with runners in scoring position, .389/.364/.667 with the bases loaded, and .299/.343/.540 in "Close and Late" situations. He was well-rounded, hitting well both before and after the All-Star break, both at home and on the road, and against both left-handed and right-handed pitching. And his defense at first base was at least sufficient.

The points mentioned above all paint a picture of Morneau as a sweet-hitting slugger and who got the job done when he needed to. He provided some of the most memorable moments in the 2006 Twins' season, including his walk-off, two-run single against Mariano Rivera and the Yankees and his dramatic eighth-inning home run off of flamethrowing Joel Zumaya of Detroit. If those aren't the types of qualities that make a player among the most valuable in the league, then I don't know what are.

While I'd certainly be inclined to agree that Morneau was not even the most valuable player on his own team, I think it's outrageous to claim that it was "one of the worst MVP selections in history." This wasn't a year where one player was outright spectacular and separated himself from the pack to the degree that choosing anyone else is indefensible. While Morneau might not have been the best choice, I can certainly live with his selection and I'm happy to see him win the award.

Market of Insanity

One of the last posts I put up was commenting on the possible trades or free agent signings the Twins could try and make this winter. At the time, I felt like there just weren't many options. Now, it seems quite different. It feels impossible for the Twins to do anything now.

Just yesterday, the Astros signed Carlos Lee to a 6 year, $100 million contract. Here are the many ways that is pure insanity: Lee has never had a year with an OPS over .900, is a 30-year old coming off a career year of 37 HRs and 116 RBI, is not a particularly patient hitter (he had one good year with walks, drawing 75, but he also hit .264 that year), and is an awful outfielder. In the AL, there is of course the option to DH, but in the NL, they'll have to play him daily and watched him botch play after play on the giant Minute Maid Park wall.

So what does this mean for the Twins? Well, for one, the Lee signing isn't the most insane deal of the offseason. The Alfonso Soriano contract of 8 years, $136 million given by the Cubs is just as bad. Like Lee, Soriano probably already had his best year and isn't likely to age well. He's a speedy player with power, but he has little patience--already a problem with most of the Cubs hitters--and speed isn't an asset most hang onto later in their careers.

It gets worse. The Gary Matthews, Jr. deal? A 5 year, $50 million deal for a career utility player and 32-year old outfielder who had one good year? A 5 year, $44 million deal for Juan Pierre, a center fielder with an arm worse than Jason Tyner's and whose only real aspect, like Tyner's, is speed? (Not that I'm really comparing the two, but that kind of money for a one-dimensional player is beyond me)

All these deals add up to a major problem for the Twins. It doesn't just mean that they will have trouble signing any free agents they may want. It will affect trades they may potentially want to make and the extensions that they need to give to Joe Mauer, MVP Justin Morneau, and maybe Michael Cuddyer.

In all honesty, I never really expected the Twins to make a free agent splash anyway. Well, more specifically, I hoped that Terry Ryan would be smart enough to avoid doing so. The free agent market is very weak this offseason, as far as I can tell. Soriano, a great player but not an elite player, got the kind of deal that has been given only to Hall of Fame caliber players (well, minus Mike Hampton in 2000): Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, and Todd Helton (that may be up for debate to some, but a career .333/.430/.593 with 413 doubles is pretty impressive, even with the Coors factor) and the most recent 8-year deal was given to Scott Rolen, another Hall of Fame caliber player.

With that in mind, the price for even mediocre players has sky-rocketed. Jamie Walker, a 35-year-old lefty specialist who doesn't exactly eat innings, is getting paid nearly $4 million a year. Same with Mike Stanton, a 39-year old journeyman. That means it might take an awful lot to get even a guy like Jason Jennings on the trade market, one of the Twins' apparent targets.

If this trend continues, which it likely will, they should look inward. One of the few sensible deals of the offseason was the four year, $13.25 million extension the Rockies gave to Jeff Francis. Last season, Francis, the ninth-overall pick in the 2002 draft, went 13-11 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and threw 199 innings. At Coors Field, that's certainly getting the job done, but even in the new market and the offensive era that baseball currently occupies, that is a smart deal. With a fifth-year option, the average yearly salary is just over $3.25 million a year for a guy with who can put up a solid ERA, eat innings, and doesn't walk too many. Those are valuable assets for that kind of money, even if 2006 was a bit of a fluke for Francis. (Jennings may have had more of a fluke year; Francis' HR rate went down, his GB/FB increased from 1.00 to 1.24.)

The Twins may want to do the same. Spending the money they have available this offseason to lock up Mauer, Mornuea, and Cuddyer, and possibly extend others like Johan Santana would be the smartest. They should probably still keep options open on a starting pitcher and a DH, but the focus should be on the kind of deals that will more likely pay off. Deals like that given to Soriano and Lee will probably hurt a club down the line or even next year, but extending young, talented players, while still a risk, is a much better investment for a small market team.

Considering all the ridiculous and idiotic dealing going on this offseason, I would be more than happy if the only thing the Twins did this offseason is make moves to keep the M & M Boys around for a long time. I doubt too many Twins fans could complain about that.