tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post8497193958753131483..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Hope vs. ExpectationsNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-64536825401082882602010-12-29T20:08:57.101-06:002010-12-29T20:08:57.101-06:00Stop stalling Twins. Sign Carl and Jim and get er ...Stop stalling Twins. Sign Carl and Jim and get er done right away. Carl wantd to come back and deserves $10 mil next year. Give him an easy to make incentive like if he wins 15 and throws 200 innings then he gets the same contract for the next year plus a mil. Then give an option for the third year if he meets the same incentives.But make the plus 2 mil. On Jim, just ask the big guy what he thinks is fair. Then give it to him.Kelly Vancenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-62707541927807597362010-12-28T18:03:45.846-06:002010-12-28T18:03:45.846-06:00Thanks for the post Nick! We'll be following y...Thanks for the post Nick! We'll be following you at our new site TC Huddle (www.tchuddle.com).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-51310122478794321012010-12-23T13:55:28.260-06:002010-12-23T13:55:28.260-06:00Yes, I realize .280/.360/.400 is probably his abso...Yes, I realize .280/.360/.400 is probably his absolute MLB celing. I guess there's no hope. Let's face it, Nishioka is going suck over here. I think I was just trying to be optimistic. :p<br /><br />Regardless, I've been a fan of Japanese baseball so even if he sucks, I'm kind of excited to finally see a Japanese player on the Twins. :DGeorgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-44810299880613693402010-12-23T09:12:16.162-06:002010-12-23T09:12:16.162-06:00"I think I mentioned I'd be happy with a ..."I think I mentioned I'd be happy with a .280/.360/.400 line from Nishioka with the Twins)" <br /><br />This line would make him a well above average player and is pretty unlikely. Id say this is much closer to best case scenario than it is to likely. The iso's you listed would be right in line with 2009 denard span. You've got him slightly increasing his isoD and retaining 2/3 of his japan isop, which is more than Ichiro was able to maintain. <br /><br />We know nothing about his defense but based on the track record of past middle infield transplants there is no reason to believe it will be good. And while his style may "translate" better than a power hitters, his style will require him to bat 330 to be a star which isnt going to happen. Its nice to imagine hell be an 800 ops guy with awesome range at a premium position but i think theres a lot of reason to believe he might not be a lot better than matt tolbert.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-74441870524955235412010-12-22T22:24:39.749-06:002010-12-22T22:24:39.749-06:00But surely you'll concede that, whatever type ...<i>But surely you'll concede that, whatever type of hitter he is, his numbers are likely to decline from the transition to a vastly more talented league. Pitchers here are much better, so he'll probably put the ball in play less often, and fielders are much better, so balls in play will be converted to outs more frequently.</i><br /><br />Of course. I do not have any delusions about him surpassing his NPB stats (I think I mentioned I'd be happy with a .280/.360/.400 line from Nishioka with the Twins). I just think he has a little better chance than most other Japanese position players who have came over to MLB to come close to his NPB output due to the type of player he was in Japan.<br /><br />I've thought about this a little bit and to me the NPB position players who have had to alter their games the least when moving over to the US has been Ichiro and So Taguchi. These guys were slap hitters in Japan (yes, Ichiro did hit 25 HRs in NPB once, but he was not the slugger the other guys who came over were), and they remained slap hitters here, and they resembled their NPB selves a lot more than the likes of the Matuis (Kaz & Hideki), Iwamura, Iguchi, & Fukudome. The last 5 guys I mentioned were all big sluggers in Japan, with Hideki Matsui being one of the most powerful Japanese who ever played in NBP. I think they had to make a lot more adjustments to their hitting style than Ichiro and Taguchi because they couldn't do the same things here they did over there. Yes, it's an extremely small sample size, but I'm inclined to think that NPB slap hitters translate better to MLB than power hitters.<br /><br />Anyway, I'm hopeful that Nishioka will workout as a contributor for the Twins.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-17122841672601364362010-12-22T11:52:13.241-06:002010-12-22T11:52:13.241-06:00When I look at Nishioka, I'm throwing out his ...<i>When I look at Nishioka, I'm throwing out his 2010 season (because it was a career year) and hoping that he can be close to his previous NPB seasons while playing sound defense. If he can do that, I think he'll be fine. I'm not expecting him to be a star in the US.</i><br /><br />But surely you'll concede that, whatever type of hitter he is, his numbers are likely to decline from the transition to a vastly more talented league. Pitchers here are much better, so he'll probably put the ball in play less often, and fielders are much better, so balls in play will be converted to outs more frequently.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-38074690571590385282010-12-21T12:48:02.441-06:002010-12-21T12:48:02.441-06:00How do you figure that would be true? Honest quest...<i>How do you figure that would be true? Honest question. The players you mentioned went from having outstanding power in Japan to modest power here, so it's a good bet that Nishioka will go from modest power to almost no power. What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline. There's a lot more downside than upside with a player like that, in my mind.</i><br /><br />You've conveniently left off my last sentence which said it was anyone's guess how he will actually do in the US.<br /><br />However, in my mind, Nishioka was a slap hitter in Japan, and will be a slap hitter in the US, so I'm thinking his slap hitting approach would translate better to the US compared to someone who was a power hitter in Japan but doesn't have enough strength to hit homers in the US. When I look at Nishioka, I'm throwing out his 2010 season (because it was a career year) and hoping that he can be close to his previous NPB seasons while playing sound defense. If he can do that, I think he'll be fine. I'm not expecting him to be a star in the US.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-90723599923032040272010-12-21T10:35:21.114-06:002010-12-21T10:35:21.114-06:00"Those who said Liriano is/was an "ace&q..."Those who said Liriano is/was an "ace" but "unlucky" can feast on that. Thanks for taking the bait, whoever you are..."<br /><br />People who call Lirano an ace are more likely seeing that hes 5th in the league in k/9, 11th in gb% and 36 % in bb/9 and that combination make him a top 5 pitcher in baseball. The people that are looking at his 340 babip, which was the 3rd highest, are probably looking for a reasonable explanation for why his very good era didnt quite match hes elite peripherals.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-79436072056079234492010-12-21T09:50:15.376-06:002010-12-21T09:50:15.376-06:00"If we're going to lean on BABIP here, th...<i>"If we're going to lean on BABIP here, than the improvement in Liriano's should offset the return to the mean of Nishi's." <br /><br />This is one of the stupidest things ive ever read.</i><br /><br />It was also a joke, for those of you who would mortgage the farm on BABIP...<br />Those who said Liriano is/was an "ace" but "unlucky" can feast on that. Thanks for taking the bait, whoever you are...Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-75898784827543013912010-12-21T05:32:29.307-06:002010-12-21T05:32:29.307-06:00Good article Nick. I must say that almost everyon...Good article Nick. I must say that almost everyone who has posted comments though has been really negative. I liked what Mike had to say and decided to do some research into the Japanese imported infielders.<br /><br />There have been only 5 infielders that have come over from the NPB: Kazuo Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, Norihiro Nakamura, Akinori Iwamura, and the Twins' recent acquisition, Tsuyoshi Nishioka.<br /><br />Kazuo Matsui had a career range factor per game of 4.5 in Japan and 4.7 in the Majors.<br /><br />I couldn't find defensive statistics for Tadahito Iguchi in NPB ball to calculate range factor.<br /><br />I don't care how Norihiro Nakamura did in japan or here because he only played about 12 innings in the Majors. Thus, he is not useful for comparing Yoshi.<br /><br />All right, finding defensive statistics for the NPB is a huge pain in the a$$. I couldn't find anything for Akinori Iwamura either.<br /><br />Yoshi posted a range factor per game of 4.75 as a SS in 2007. <br /><br />I was hoping to be able to look at the defensive numbers of the other players and compare their Japanese numbers to their American numbers and then apply the general trend to Yoshi's Japanese numbers. <br /><br />That didn't work so well though. What we can extrapolate though is that only 4 Japanese infielders have come before Yoshi. This is such a ridiculously small sample size that comparing Yoshi to them just seems dumb.Donnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-17020091966734692692010-12-21T03:05:43.142-06:002010-12-21T03:05:43.142-06:00Hello Mr. Pokemon,
http://www.amazinavenue.com/20...Hello Mr. Pokemon,<br /><br />http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/11/10/1805084/scouting-the-npb-tsuyoshi-nishioka<br /><br />This came off a Mets blog from November. "NPB scouts believe that he has extraordinarily quick reflexes, and possesses the best range of all NPB shortstops in the game currently."<br /><br />You are correct that they didn't say "incredible range." I was going from memory. However, I will accept as fact what you say about Yoshi's toes. I know from experience that extra toes provide improved lateral quickness. Nice work!Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-18624211009094710542010-12-21T00:49:28.482-06:002010-12-21T00:49:28.482-06:00"As a defender, scouts have reported that he ..."As a defender, scouts have reported that he has incredible range."<br /><br />You made this up. Link the reputable scout that said he had incredible range. Because the list of japanese transplants that showed incredible middle infield range at the MLB level is no one. <br /><br />Scouts have also reported that yoshi has a 6th and 7th toe on each foot and it allows him unparalleled lateral quickness.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-53923987779374450862010-12-20T23:13:24.778-06:002010-12-20T23:13:24.778-06:00Nick, lighten up buddy. First you write a pessimi...Nick, lighten up buddy. First you write a pessimistic post and second you get defensive in the comments. <br /><br />Now that that's off my chest...<br /><br />Predicting the production of NPB players is like brewing your own beer. You never know exactly what it is going to taste like till you've let it age properly. Even then, the flavor continues to change over time.<br /><br />Essentially the only thing we have come up with is that Yoshi might be awesome, he might suck, or he might be somewhere in between.<br /><br />That being said, I like predicting the taste of beers when I brew. Thus, I think Yoshi has a good chance to be successful at the MLB level as a defender and offender. <br /><br />As a defender, scouts have reported that he has incredible range. He also lead the league for his position last year in put outs and assists. These are rudimentary stats, but they show that he makes a lot of plays, perhaps because of his great range. He was also clocked throwing the ball at 88 several years ago. That seems sufficient for a shortstop or second baseman.<br /><br />As a hitter, Yoshi isn't going to have much power. But, that could translate well to the majors. Iwamura, Kaz largely lost their hitting ability in the U.S. due to their swing for the fences/upper-cut swing types. This approach works in the NPB as can be seen with Murton's recent success. Yoshi has never been one to swing for the fences though. He has relied on hitting for the gaps and legging it out. That sounds like a pretty good strategy for someone without power in a Japanese power depressing league. <br /><br />In the end, you'll probably be right, and Yoshi will probably suck balls. But I prefer to be optimistic and excited about adding an instant Japanese star to our team. It is a lot more enjoyable to be critical of the other teams and optimistic about our own.<br /><br />MikeMikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-68742254269288889752010-12-20T19:40:28.759-06:002010-12-20T19:40:28.759-06:00"Nick, I think you need to change the name of..."Nick, I think you need to change the name of your blog to "Nick's Pessimism Rant"" <br /><br />Nicks Pessimistic* Rant. Unless the blogs topic is pessimism then lets pick it up. <br /><br />"As a spray line drive hitter, his numbers will translate better than if he were a slugger."<br /><br />Im not sure why people are so quick to make this argument. He wont lose any power because he never had any? Kaz matsui had a good batting average and obp in japan to go with power and he fell off across the board. I would much rather nishi have power to lose, and just because he doesnt have power is not a strong argument that his BA isnt going to drop.<br /><br />"Do you think you are one of the 32 best at what you do in the country? "<br /><br />This is an awfully presumptuous standard. First there are way more than 32 gm in professional baseball, there are 32 mlb gms. Most of the strength in your argument lies in the pool size. I dont know what nick does but 1000's others do the same thing. So to be in the top 32 would be unbelievable. Bill smith could be the worst mlb gm and still be in the top 32 of his field while nick could be better than 90% of his profession and not be in the top 1000.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-15766543937382199042010-12-20T18:38:53.980-06:002010-12-20T18:38:53.980-06:00Nick, I think you need to change the name of your ...Nick, I think you need to change the name of your blog to "Nick's Pessimism Rant"<br /><br />And you are being disingenuous (look it up). You named your article "Hope v Expectations" so when you write this:<br /><br />"First of all, I don't know where people are getting the impression that I'm "passing judgment" on Nishioka. I can't claim to know what kind of player he'll turn out to be, and I'm as hopeful as anyone that he can be a strong contributor." <br /><br />After naming your article that way, you go on and do exactly what you say you aren't... pass judgment. And you do so when the kid hasn't played a single game yet. You deserve to be called out.<br /><br />And say what you want, batters that get 200 hits are rare....in any league... and he did it in fewer than 162 games. As a spray line drive hitter, his numbers will translate better than if he were a slugger. He makes contact. That is in style everywhere and in every league. <br /><br />But you are unfair in other ways. You choose the comparisons you want, even if absurd, then criticize those who do the same thing. <br /><br />There are fewer than three dozen GM jobs in pro baseball. The FO has delivered several AL Central Championships in the past decade. 5 out of 6 years I think. I'd say they know what they are doing. <br /><br />Do you think you are one of the 32 best at what you do in the country? <br /><br />I'd say you just like bitching.So lighten up Francis.Vinnynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-43037480165342360362010-12-20T18:19:32.779-06:002010-12-20T18:19:32.779-06:00"If we're going to lean on BABIP here, th..."If we're going to lean on BABIP here, than the improvement in Liriano's should offset the return to the mean of Nishi's." <br /><br />This is one of the stupidest things ive ever read.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-13653732554087199882010-12-20T15:47:06.962-06:002010-12-20T15:47:06.962-06:00What we're left with is a slap hitter with goo...<i>What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline.</i><br />Were Hardy or Hudson much different than that, offensively (I admit that Hardy provided most of the little bit of "pop" from the SS position last year for the Twins, though, but that was still miniscule)? No. Hudson showed some patience until the end of the year, and Hardy's swing isn't going to produce 20 HRs again. As for Hardy's patience? What patience?<br />It's defense that's the worry. His NPB GG was every bit as meaningless to MLB as MLB GGs are/were to player's value as a defender; reputation alone pretty much does it for you, along with a good year at the plate - as long as you don't emabarass yourself in the field.<br /><br />If we're going to lean on BABIP here, than the improvement in Liriano's should offset the return to the mean of Nishi's.<br /><br />Anyone know how to look up Nishi's UZR in NPB? I can't find out how...Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-54487300806653894292010-12-20T15:42:08.714-06:002010-12-20T15:42:08.714-06:00I read a poster somewhere asking why the Twins loo...I read a poster somewhere asking why the Twins look to Edgar Renteria. I think that makes a slot of sense. If the Giant $1M offer to Renteria was offensive, maybe he'd come to MN for $1.5M. If we think that Nishioka is a second baseman, anyway, then Casilla becomes the backup to both. That sounds better than our current situation.cy1timenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-60998222594708539042010-12-20T13:57:49.528-06:002010-12-20T13:57:49.528-06:00First of all, I don't know where people are ge...First of all, I don't know where people are getting the impression that I'm "passing judgment" on Nishioka. I can't claim to know what kind of player he'll turn out to be, and I'm as hopeful as anyone that he can be a strong contributor. There's just no way I can objectively expect that. The sample size of NPB players coming over to the majors is relatively small, but the fact is that there have been far more disappointments than success stories. <br /><br />Nishioka is a lesser player than most of the stars who've come over from Japan, and that's reflected not only in his career NPB stats but also in his signing bonus and contract.<br /><br /><i>Like Ichiro, Nishi is a 200 hit per year guy from Japan and a batting title winner is a pretty good credential to have</i><br /><br />That's sort of a misleading statement. This was Nishioka's first 200-hit season ever, and as I noted in the post it was aided by an extraordinarily high BABIP. It's essentially guaranteed that his BABIP will drop sharply in MLB, where the pitchers and fielders are considerably better. Given that he lacks exceptional patience or power, what are we left with when the batting average inevitably drops off? Ichiro comparisons don't work -- he was a .353 hitter in Japan, not a .290 hitter like Yoshi.<br /><br /><i>He also is not a homerun masher in Japan like Kaz Matsui, Iguchi, and Iwamura (all 3 were 30+ HR guys in NPB), so perhaps his game would translate better.</i><br /><br />How do you figure that would be true? Honest question. The players you mentioned went from having outstanding power in Japan to modest power here, so it's a good bet that Nishioka will go from modest power to almost no power. What we're left with is a slap hitter with good but not great speed and decent plate discipline. There's a lot more downside than upside with a player like that, in my mind.<br /><br /><i>Thing is, Twins have Trevor and Alexi. May as well see if they can do it for a whole year. Alexi played well the second half last year. </i><br /><br />Casilla has never been able to hold a starting job and Plouffe is a marginal prospect. When Hardy was Plouffe's age he was an elite MLB shortstop. You can argue that Hardy is too "injury-prone," but when it comes to pure talent there's no comparison.<br /><br /><i>And we have 5 proven starters on the staff and Gibson is likely going to start the season with the big club.</i><br /><br />One of those "proven starters" is Blackburn, who was a disaster for most of last season. One is Duensing, who has never pitched in an MLB rotation for a full year. <br /><br />Look, a lot of people are combating my "overly negative" spin by pointing to what could happen in the best case scenario and over-inflating the value of players currently on the roster. Yes, if Casilla finally pulls it together for a full season, and Nishioka performs on the high end of our expectations, and Valencia repeats (more or less) his surprising rookie production, and the five starters (who between them have a total of two 200-IP seasons in the majors) find a way to stay healthy all year, the Twins could be fine. But all those things are not going to happen. Look at all the injuries and bad performances from last year. Right now they don't have the depth to sustain half that much attrition.<br /><br />Hope is good. I'm hopeful. But realistically, from my perspective, the Twins are not in particularly good shape right now. Don't shoot the messenger.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-54923714867369906142010-12-20T13:53:48.072-06:002010-12-20T13:53:48.072-06:00Wow, lotta delusional people commenting here. List...Wow, lotta delusional people commenting here. Listen...it's a stat called BABIP, learn it, know it, use it. Whether or not you believe that stats ability to predict things, it is undeniable that it is an indicator of luck and both Valencia and Nishioka had career years in terms of luck (high BABIPs). I don't think Nick's trying to be a buzzkill, I think he's trying to be realistic and to be honest, I'd rather knows what's realistic than wonder why Yoshi struggles in his 1st season in the Majors.Adam Kruegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-4558500003026817982010-12-20T13:25:35.155-06:002010-12-20T13:25:35.155-06:00Thanks Nick! You put into words some of my increa...Thanks Nick! You put into words some of my increasing concern with this off-season and the Twins "hoping" things will go well. We "hope" Nishioka and Casilla will be strong up the middle. We "hope" we can witstand the loss of over 1/2 our bullpen. We "hope" that speed will be sucessful at Target Field. Let's hope at least one of the above works.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-71029128402391299552010-12-20T13:16:00.069-06:002010-12-20T13:16:00.069-06:00I'm cautiously optimistic about Nishioka's...I'm cautiously optimistic about Nishioka's performance over here. I believe the Gold Glove awards in Japan is even more based on offensive production and reputation than over here in the US, so the fact that Nishioka won a few over there might actually be legit since he didn't really have much offensive production to fall back on to "win" gold gloves in Japan until this past year. I remember seeing Nishioka in the World Baseball Classic and was pretty sure he made the team on defensive merits.<br /><br />He also is not a homerun masher in Japan like Kaz Matsui, Iguchi, and Iwamura (all 3 were 30+ HR guys in NPB), so perhaps his game would translate better. But I guess it's anyone's guess how he will actually do offensively.<br /><br />Personally speaking, I would be happy if he can produce a .280/.360/.400 line while playing good solid defense for the Twins.Georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-58296983267443120362010-12-20T13:11:17.793-06:002010-12-20T13:11:17.793-06:00good point on the gold gloves.good point on the gold gloves.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-28507783370590883342010-12-20T13:07:03.892-06:002010-12-20T13:07:03.892-06:00Let's wait till we see him play before passing...Let's wait till we see him play before passing judgement. Much as we want to lean on statistical and likeness projections, every player is different, and no one here commenting or blogging has actually seen him play yet. Perhaps he took a noticeably different plate approach in NPB last year and that resulted in the batting title, who knows? None of us do, that's for sure.<br />MLB Gold Gloves usually go to a guy who produced on offense, even if he's not the best "pure" fielder. RGG is a token MLB award, so saying "he won one in Japan is meaningless" is upiquitous with MLB GGs. Meaningless.<br />Hardy is gone, salary dumped, let's get over it, shall we? This "core" group of expensive players need more pitching, anyway.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-51483734450063346822010-12-20T12:35:16.863-06:002010-12-20T12:35:16.863-06:00"We also have a for sure by gosh SS in develo..."We also have a for sure by gosh SS in development who is a year or two away."<br /><br />I dont really know what this means but if you are trying to say the twins have a good ss prospect a year or 2 away youre very wrong. Plouffe is probably the best SS prospect we have and hes not a very good prospect. The twins have almost 0 organizational middle infielder depth. They do a horrible job drafting middle infielders they do a horrible job developing middle infielders.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com