tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post7476530238645204160..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: The Blame GameNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-30539934379838249712008-02-05T22:42:00.000-06:002008-02-05T22:42:00.000-06:00Not if you believe the reports out of both Santana...<I>Not if you believe the reports out of both Santana and the Twins. Both sides apparently claim there was never an ultimatum.</I><BR/><BR/>I suppose that would be the kosher thing to say at this point. There were a lot of reliable sources reporting that a deadline was, in fact, in place.<BR/><BR/><I>Its funny how everyone talked about the Twins surplus of pitching prospects last summer. Now trading away Garza and Morlan depleted the Twins pitching prospects to the point that they needed to trade outside the organization for three guys.</I><BR/><BR/>Ironic, I wrote today's post without having read your comment here but it pretty much directly addresses your point. Give it a read and we can continue the conversation there if you'd like.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-81642967455896605622008-02-05T21:34:00.000-06:002008-02-05T21:34:00.000-06:00Santana gave them a deadline and said he would sti...<I>Santana gave them a deadline and said he would stick to the no-trade clause if a resolution wasn't reached by last Tuesday. </I><BR/><BR/>Not if you believe the reports out of both Santana and the Twins. Both sides apparently claim there was never an ultimatum.<BR/><BR/><I>they really would have been starting from scratch in 2009.</I><BR/><BR/>How is that? The only player from this trade that fills a hole in the Twins system going forward is Gomez. And they already had Pridie and Span as potential center fielders. <BR/><BR/>Its funny how everyone talked about the Twins surplus of pitching prospects last summer. Now trading away Garza and Morlan depleted the Twins pitching prospects to the point that they needed to trade outside the organization for three guys.TThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05093249764311819252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-52979549245440120132008-02-05T19:04:00.000-06:002008-02-05T19:04:00.000-06:00The only thing I can see is that maybe the Yankees...<I>The only thing I can see is that maybe the Yankees are just going to throw a lot of money at C.C. Sabathia next year. They'll still have their prospects and have Sabathia and Wang to top the rotation. I just never thought the Yankees would ever look that far ahead.</I><BR/><BR/>Hadn't thought about that. That's actually a pretty good theory. I can't envision the Yanks doing much this year though.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-5795895487691973192008-02-05T19:01:00.000-06:002008-02-05T19:01:00.000-06:00I still have a hard time understanding why the Yan...I still have a hard time understanding why the Yankees weren't more interested in Johan. I think Cashman is going to lose his job over this. <BR/><BR/>I just don't see the Yankees being able to compete with the Red Sox, especially when Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte predictably break down. The Red Sox went and threw a bunch of prospects at the Marlins for Josh Beckett and look how that worked out.<BR/><BR/>The only thing I can see is that maybe the Yankees are just going to throw a lot of money at C.C. Sabathia next year. They'll still have their prospects and have Sabathia and Wang to top the rotation. I just never thought the Yankees would ever look that far ahead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-14024728748090994882008-02-05T13:08:00.000-06:002008-02-05T13:08:00.000-06:00Bring him to Spring Training. See if the agent has...<I>Bring him to Spring Training. See if the agent has a different tune at the trade deadline, and see if there are other, better offers. Worst case, you get one more year of Santana - and a chance to compete - and 2 first-round picks.<BR/><BR/>Guerra is essentially a draft choice as it is. Smith choked. He pressured himself into trading Santana without even getting the Mets top propsect.</I><BR/><BR/>Santana gave them a deadline and said he would stick to the no-trade clause if a resolution wasn't reached by last Tuesday. There's no way of knowing whether or not he would have stood by it throughout the season, but Smith didn't really have the luxury of trying to call his bluff. He couldn't afford to go into the season with a pissed off ace who was going to be a distraction, and I'm sure Smith was being pressured from up top to make a move because it would look very bad from a PR standpoint if the Twins kept Santana, missed the playoffs, and then lost him at the end of the season for draft picks. <BR/><BR/>Here's the thing about Guerra vs. draft pick. You could argue that the Twins would be able to draft a similarly talented pitcher with one of the picks from the Santana trade, but the timeline for his arrival to the majors would be WAY pushed back. Guerra, at 18, already has a full season of experience at High-A ball. If he continues to develop and moves along at a good rate, it's reasonable to think he could be vying for a spot in the Twins' rotation in 2010. Meanwhile, the pitcher draft in 2009 with a Santana pick would have only HALF A SEASON of professional experience at that point. In the Mets trade, the Twins also got three other players who are all major-league ready or very close, which is extremely important when you look at the complete lack of impact prospects in the Twins' high minors. If the Twins kept Santana and took the draft picks, their rebuilding effort would be pushed back several years, whereas trading him for advanced minor-leaguers keeps potential success on the immediate horizon. The more I think about it, the more I start to think that keeping Santana would have made 2008 way too much of an all-or-nothing year... because they really would have been starting from scratch in 2009.<BR/><BR/><I>While I am glad he is locked up, I do not in any way look at it as a change in fiscal policy. It was what they should have done long ago with Hunter and Santana. Had they done that, we would have a team capable of winning 90+ games again, rather than an irrelevant squad that will win, oh, 68-72 games and challenge KC for the cellar.</I><BR/><BR/>The Twins never claimed they were going to change their fiscal policy. They have consistently stated that the team budget will be 50 percent of incoming revenue, or slightly above. We can complain about it until the cows come home and talk about how rich Pohlad is, but it's not going to change so we need to live with it.<BR/><BR/>Keeping those payroll constraints in mind, re-signing Hunter and Santana just wouldn't have been feasible if this team plans on competing over the next five years. Would it have made the squad more competitive next year? Sure, but you've got to keep the future in mind and as the back-loaded contracts start escalating the team runs out of money to pay to anyone else and you end up with a handful of stars and a bunch of scrubs. As we saw last year, that just doesn't work.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-52234011541629218762008-02-05T09:07:00.000-06:002008-02-05T09:07:00.000-06:00What is Smith supposed to do when he's pressed int...What is Smith supposed to do when he's pressed into a corner by Santana and his agent and has only one team to negotiate with?<BR/><BR/><BR/>Bring him to Spring Training. See if the agent has a different tune at the trade deadline, and see if there are other, better offers. Worst case, you get one more year of Santana - and a chance to compete - and 2 first-round picks.<BR/><BR/>Guerra is essentially a draft choice as it is. Smith choked. He pressured himself into trading Santana without even getting the Mets top propsect. <BR/><BR/>The Twins don't spend. Even the Morneau deal did not impress. He is contractually obliged to Minnesota through 2010 anyway, and in arbitration would probably gotten 10 million next year and 14 million in '10. So unless they were going to trade him before his free agency, they were already going to pay him in excess of 30 millon for the next three years. So what the Twins did was buy out three years of free agency for about 48 million by my estimate. And that is a bargain: on the open market in three years (assuming he keeps hitting) he would get 5 or 6 years for more than 100 million dollars. While I am glad he is locked up, I do not in any way look at it as a change in fiscal policy. It was what they should have done long ago with Hunter and Santana. Had they done that, we would have a team capable of winning 90+ games again, rather than an irrelevant squad that will win, oh, 68-72 games and challenge KC for the cellar.S.Chancellorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13887377900906714516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-71470430933034936582008-02-05T07:23:00.000-06:002008-02-05T07:23:00.000-06:00Good piece Nick. Of course we all know the whole ...Good piece Nick. Of course we all know the whole thing was Seth's fault.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-34564410726739635502008-02-05T00:57:00.000-06:002008-02-05T00:57:00.000-06:00What is insulting is, the Twins never actually set...<I>What is insulting is, the Twins never actually set a payroll. To wit, had they set the '08 payroll at 72 million, then why is the current payroll 52 million? They let Hunter and Santana walk (the latter for some Met refuse), but where was the BIG free agent signing(s) to offset those losses?</I><BR/><BR/>Who would you suggest they sign as a free agent? There's no sense in spending money just for the sake of spending it.<BR/><BR/><I>Finally, RE: blame. I just took Pohlad to the cleaners for the payroll, but Bill Smith is squarely at fault for the return on a HOF star pitcher. As a blogger noted recently, we got more for Matt Garza than for Santana. Smith struck out, and the entire baseball world knows it.</I><BR/><BR/>That's because Garza is cost-controlled for the next four years. The Twins had a lot more leverage in trying to trade Garza because he was desirable to pretty much every team in the league rather than three. As disappointed as I am with the package, I fail to see how Smith "struck out" on his return for Santana -- he has no control over what other teams are offering. <BR/><BR/>I honestly don't believe Hughes was ever truly on the table. I think Hank was coming out and saying it in the press in order to force Epstein to raise his offer. Hank was the only member of that organization that openly stated that he would be willing to give up Hughes, whereas it was published in numerous places that several other high-ranking members of the organization (including the GM Cashman and Hank's brother Hal) did not want to give up Hughes. Plus, it stands to reason that if the Yankees were truly willing to give up Hughes at one point, they would have jumped when the Twins reportedly lowered their offer to Kennedy and Cabrera. For whatever reason, I don't believe the Yankees were ever truly serious about acquiring Santana. I think it's foolish on their part, but I think it's a fair assumption given the way things played out. Meanwhile, if the Yankees were never serious, the Red Sox were probably never serious either since it seems their only prerogative was to keep Johan out of the Bronx. <BR/><BR/>What is Smith supposed to do when he's pressed into a corner by Santana and his agent and has only one team to negotiate with?Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-52740763863189936702008-02-04T23:05:00.000-06:002008-02-04T23:05:00.000-06:00I get so tired of hearing "the Twins can't afford ...I get so tired of hearing "the Twins can't afford to pay so-and-so" (Santana, Hunter, whoever). The Twins absolutely can afford to pay their players - they choose not to. Johan Santana is a NY Met because the Twins elected not to pay him market value. Ditto Hunter an Angel (and for that matter Ortiz a Red Sox. The Twins released him in Dec 02 rather than go to arbitration). <BR/><BR/>What is insulting is, the Twins never actually set a payroll. To wit, had they set the '08 payroll at 72 million, then why is the current payroll 52 million? They let Hunter and Santana walk (the latter for some Met refuse), but where was the BIG free agent signing - to offset those losses?<BR/><BR/>Finally, RE: blame. I just took Pohlad to the cleaners for the payroll, but Bill Smith is squarely to blame for the return on a HOF star pitcher. As a blogger noted recently, we got more for Matt Garza than for Santana. Smith struck out, and the entire baseball world knows it.S.Chancellorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13887377900906714516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-81033642831150844512008-02-04T23:04:00.000-06:002008-02-04T23:04:00.000-06:00I get so tired of hearing "the Twins can't afford ...I get so tired of hearing "the Twins can't afford to pay so-and-so" (Santana, Hunter, whoever). The Twins absolutely can afford to pay their players - they choose not to. Johan Santana is a NY Met because the Twins elected not to pay him market value. Ditto Hunter an Angel (and for that matter Ortiz a Red Sox. The Twins released him in Dec 02 rather than go to arbitration). <BR/><BR/>What is insulting is, the Twins never actually set a payroll. To wit, had they set the '08 payroll at 72 million, then why is the current payroll 52 million? They let Hunter and Santana walk (the latter for some Met refuse), but where was the BIG free agent signing(s) to offset those losses?<BR/><BR/>Finally, RE: blame. I just took Pohlad to the cleaners for the payroll, but Bill Smith is squarely at fault for the return on a HOF star pitcher. As a blogger noted recently, we got more for Matt Garza than for Santana. Smith struck out, and the entire baseball world knows it.S.Chancellorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13887377900906714516noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-69316791991308691522008-02-04T19:01:00.000-06:002008-02-04T19:01:00.000-06:00You're right, Santana never said he wanted out of ...You're right, Santana never said he wanted out of MN publicly. He has handled the situation like a pro and with as much class as he could. I didn't mean to imply that Santana has said publicly he wanted out, but that if he ever felt that way he should keep it quiet. So far he has. He should keep it that way. Seeing him leave, for reasons that might not be all about money, just hurts on a personal level, that's all. <BR/><BR/>But I'll say this. In my opinion Santana is the closest thing to a sure bet as a pitcher that there is out there. He is unreplaceable. I mean, 11 years ago, Randy Johnson had arm problems, he was older than Santana is now, but he went on to some dominating seasons. Why? Beacuse he was that good, that's why. Taking the risk on Johnson then would have been worth it. Clemens would have been a risk at one time too, but he went on to win over 350 games. <BR/><BR/>Santana is a huge risk, maybe one this franchise couldn't afford to lose, but I'll always argue it would have been worth taking because the rewards would be so great. The Twins will recover from losing him, but he didn't have to go. Even if it was the more prudent finanacial decision, can't we for once go with our hearts and keep the guys who could be in the HOF? (In a few years this conversation will be about Mauer)<BR/><BR/>And Beau, you are right about hating Pohlad for other reasons than the Twins. He still doesn't have to be so cheap though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-355701162028144082008-02-04T18:40:00.000-06:002008-02-04T18:40:00.000-06:00I blame Selig more than anyone else.I blame Selig more than anyone else.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-28910436680122664112008-02-04T18:29:00.000-06:002008-02-04T18:29:00.000-06:00Pohlad didn't make 3 billion by making bad busines...Pohlad didn't make 3 billion by making bad business decisions, and there's plenty of evidence to suggest that signing Santana to a $130 million dollar contract is a bad business decision. Yes, he could afford to give the team a $300 million dollar payroll, but that wouldn't guarantee anything.<BR/><BR/>If we're going to hate Pohlad there are much worse things in his closet to point at than having one of his colleagues offer his employee a higher raise than he was offering.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-6117311687312656842008-02-04T18:02:00.000-06:002008-02-04T18:02:00.000-06:00But Santana could be going to the hall of fame one...<I>But Santana could be going to the hall of fame one day, lefthanded flamethrowers with pinpoint control are exceptionally hard to find, and because most of all he helped the team win. Yes, he might get hurt, but when you have a throughbred, that's a risk worth taking.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, Santana is great and has pitched like a Hall of Famer up until this point in his career, but does that really preclude him from declining or getting figured out by the league? As much as we want to dismiss the ghastly home run rate and second-half fizzle last season, there's a very real possibility that both are a sign of things to come. <BR/><BR/>The risk of giving a pitcher that type of monetary commitment over that many years is just gargantuan. As much as Pohlad COULD afford to spend as much as large-market team, it's unrealistic and probably unfair to expect him to. The Twins are a middle-market team with a reasonable payroll, and working a contract like the one Santana got from the Mets into that payroll would leave very little room for building around Johan.<BR/><BR/><I>Unless Santana directly said, "I hate it here in MN, and I won't re-sign no matter what" you don't trade that guy.</I><BR/><BR/>I think there all the evidence pretty much point to that being basically what Santana said. <BR/><BR/><I>And if Santana felt that way, I will hold it against him. He's entitled to his feelings, go ahead and make your money, but keep those feelings that hurt fans who supported you from day 1 in MLB to yorself. Don't ever say it publicly.</I><BR/><BR/>He never did say it publicly. If he wanted out of Minnesota, I don't know how he could have possibly handled the situation in a manner that would have been more civil toward Twins fans. He never came out and gave any quotes to media indicating that he dislikes pitching here, it's just a fair assumption to draw based on how the situation played out.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-54092544912149184492008-02-04T17:26:00.000-06:002008-02-04T17:26:00.000-06:00No, Pohlad deserves all the criticism he gets. OK,...No, Pohlad deserves all the criticism he gets. OK, don't overpay people like Milton, Pierzynski, etc. But Santana could be going to the hall of fame one day, lefthanded flamethrowers with pinpoint control are exceptionally hard to find, and because most of all he helped the team win. Yes, he might get hurt, but when you have a throughbred, that's a risk worth taking. And so what about the financial risk. Are we trying to win a world series or what? Pohlad is worth 3 bill, he can afford Santana. He's just cheap and I hate him for it. <BR/><BR/>Unless Santana directly said, "I hate it here in MN, and I won't re-sign no matter what" you don't trade that guy. Pay him. He deserves it, based on what he's already done. And if Santana felt that way, I will hold it against him. He's entitled to his feelings, go ahead and make your money, but keep those feelings that hurt fans who supported you from day 1 in MLB to yorself. Don't ever say it publicly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-53369738843396698402008-02-04T09:53:00.000-06:002008-02-04T09:53:00.000-06:00Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad are others to consider w...Terry Ryan and Jim Pohlad are others to consider when pointing the finger. But I agree, not just one person is responsible for this.<BR/><BR/>Nice job, Nick.Josh Johnsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00895543504885337250noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-26189476174628522572008-02-04T09:01:00.000-06:002008-02-04T09:01:00.000-06:00I agree that there is really no one to blame. My m...I agree that there is really no one to blame. My main feeling is just disapointment with the way baseball is structured so that it makes it next to impossible for a team like the twins to keep the talent they develop and that the fans become connected to.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-53710682165883497902008-02-04T07:43:00.000-06:002008-02-04T07:43:00.000-06:00i might be the only one, but i think johan has alr...i might be the only one, but i think johan has already pitched his best. his numbers have declined the past couple years and he just wasn't the same pitcher at the end of the season last year. he may be more successful in the nl, but i think a lot of the hitters in the al were picking up on him. if he continues to pitch the way he did after the all star break last year, this will end up being a great deal for us. that's probably not likely, but sometimes people in the organization can see things like this coming. if we had committed that much money to johan and he didn't work out, that is 6 years of coming up short. even though we won't have a chance next year of maybe even 2009, the future looks better for us now. plus we will have more money to sign free agents. let's just hope that smith is better than ryan was at that. i think he has already shown that though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com