tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post729406936585202745..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: InsanityNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-38876369008193929672011-01-20T11:45:02.535-06:002011-01-20T11:45:02.535-06:00Im not talking about a lot of people viewing a sin...Im not talking about a lot of people viewing a single play im talking about charting all the plays a player makes in a systematic way. Assuming the system is responsible it will remove a ton of the bias added from an initial impression. I dont know if you arent understanding what im saying, are a troll or are just wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-76423494439060915732011-01-20T11:20:56.863-06:002011-01-20T11:20:56.863-06:00Nope - you can hope that a lot of viewers working ...Nope - you can hope that a lot of viewers working in a precise way can reduce some bias but juat having a large number of viewers doesn't get rid of it, nor large portions of it either.<br /><br />Heck the viewers are placed in different locations in different parks, at varying heights, with varying tools to record - which almost certainly increases the bias since it adds to normal bias that eyes suffer.<br /><br />So I'm sure that you are sorry about thatmikkyldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-17865247393325800662011-01-20T08:56:11.085-06:002011-01-20T08:56:11.085-06:00"Having a bunch of viewers doesn't get ri..."Having a bunch of viewers doesn't get rid of that bias - no matter what you think."<br /><br />It certainly removes a large portion of the bias. If you chart every play in a consistent way preconceptions about a players defensive prowess are minimized, spectacular and terrible plays simply become results in a large sample, and aesthetics like player speed and smoothness are less of a consideration. Bias' about how hard the ball was hit, how the ball travel, and things of that nature are still present but much of the unnecessary bias attached to a perspectiveless snap judgments is removed. If you think a charted advanced defensive metric is biased to the same degree an initial impression is youre wrong.<br /><br />Sorry about that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-57823825705786456482011-01-20T01:46:55.327-06:002011-01-20T01:46:55.327-06:00Well anonymous, I never said eyes are a good way t...Well anonymous, I never said eyes are a good way to gauge defense. Nor did I even suggest that if a stat isn't perfect there is no use for it. And I certainly did not "come with crap like I can tell etc."<br /><br />However,stats need to be as purely objective as possible, since subjectivity creates flaws in the stat, which (to varying degrees) limits its utility.<br /><br />The whole reason that an individuals "eyes" are not that great at this kind of comparative evaluation is because of the viewers bias. Having a bunch of viewers doesn't get rid of that bias - no matter what you think.<br /><br />Sorry about that.mikkyldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-63472933475038873352011-01-19T23:37:53.118-06:002011-01-19T23:37:53.118-06:00"If you can quantify the bias and remove it f..."If you can quantify the bias and remove it from the math, you are OK. If not, not so much"<br /><br />Meh, thats an unreasonable qualification. Youve made this point to be contrarian not because anyone could think thats a functional viewpoint. If a stat isnt perfect its garbage? I think people should be smart enough to assess the strengths and weaknesses of a stat and be able to use it responsibly. My problem with a simple eye test is its very short sided and easily influenced. Advanced metrics certainly arent perfect and you need a huge sample before you can even try to use them but they are better than an eye test. Im not a huge advocate of advanced defensive statistics but dont come with crap like i can tell hes a good defender because he looks like he is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-58961623597327835732011-01-19T22:15:34.663-06:002011-01-19T22:15:34.663-06:00It looks like Bill Smith is making some very quest...It looks like Bill Smith is making some very questionable moves this off-season. Also, have to think the Twins regretting that they committed so much of their payroll on a very solid but not spectacular home-town catcher.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-66107935171628004462011-01-19T22:08:05.367-06:002011-01-19T22:08:05.367-06:00garbage in garbage out or so I've been told.
...garbage in garbage out or so I've been told.<br /><br />If each and every witnessing is potentially biased (and I agree that it is) then it doesn't matter how large a sample you have.<br /><br />If you can quantify the bias and remove it from the math, you are OK. If not, not so muchmikkyldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-12758356190436612682011-01-19T22:00:56.331-06:002011-01-19T22:00:56.331-06:00"Still at this point in time, all advanced de..."Still at this point in time, all advanced defensive stats are begun when someone eyes the play and records it. Anyone who thinks the eyes cannot be trusted then should immediately discard all defensive advanced stats. Right?"<br /><br />Not what i said. This is certainly the biggest weakness of advanced metrics like UZR. But charting the plays allows you to keep track of all the plays which allows for large samples. Charting the plays gives better perspective on actual range and always players to be compared. Certainly these statistic are influenced by the human evaluators opinion of the conditions of the play but its a better effort than seeing a play and give a minimal perspective opinion.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-3910835218336278522011-01-19T21:39:26.953-06:002011-01-19T21:39:26.953-06:00Everyone here is hung up on the fact that Nick sin...Everyone here is hung up on the fact that Nick singled out Hardy as someone the money wasted on Capps could have retained. Correct me if I'm wrong, Nick, but I believe Hardy was just an example of something valuable we could have received for Capps' salary. One of many.<br /><br />We could have signed any two of the pitcher reclamation projects. I would much rather have Webb/Young then Capps, as either could have developed into a good starter (or even a really good setup guy making half of Capps salary).<br /><br />We could have had signed Berkman or Lee for the same amount of money and had a good DH or bench righty (ok, Berkman isn't great as a righty, but hey, at least he can do it. Both could more importantly spell first). <br /><br />We could have signed Martin as a backup catcher. He hits righty as a bonus compliment to Mauer. We also would have had a few mil left over.<br /><br />We could have signed Tejada. He hits righty and could fill in at 3rd plus middle infield for emergencies. Also would have had money left over.<br /><br />We could have signed Correia or Garland, neither my taste but at least something to give depth at starting pitcher.<br /><br />OR we could have kept any of the guys we let go, including Hudson, Guerrier, Rauch, Crain, or yes, Hardy.<br /><br />Now this list doesn't even take into account all we could do, as most the players mentioned have already been signed. We could also look to trade. Regardless, Capps' contract is a black eye that won't heal for exactly one year and really pisses me off.Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-31501484087957285052011-01-19T17:37:41.226-06:002011-01-19T17:37:41.226-06:00I've never seen such overreactions to a pitche...I've never seen such overreactions to a pitcher who likely earns less than league average as a closer.(not enclined to look it up). The Twins even have their diehard fans worried about the money they spend. Pathetic.Jerrol Custarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-46116062257667277492011-01-19T17:36:46.378-06:002011-01-19T17:36:46.378-06:00Paying that much for any closer is pretty awful; d...Paying that much for any closer is pretty awful; doing so when there is a roughly equal comparable you could have for less is even worse. (And that is without noting - again - that Joe Pos is 100% correct that closers are overvalued.)<br /><br />None of that makes JJ Hardy into a good SS though - not now and not ever. And 5.8M for a backup SS is mind-boggingly stupid.<br /><br />As to the eye test, well it is very clear that the eyes can easily be biased and the memory can make it worse by remembering the good and forgetting the bad (or vice versa). <br /><br />Still at this point in time, all advanced defensive stats are begun when someone eyes the play and records it. Anyone who thinks the eyes cannot be trusted then should immediately discard all defensive advanced stats. Right?<br /><br />At least until the day when all aspects of a ball in play (speed, direction, acceleration etc) can be measured by technology. ATM that does not happen - heck the bias just among ballparks for how plays are witnessed and recorded is enough to make objective people like me crazy.mikkyldnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-17004676284145887612011-01-19T16:20:28.685-06:002011-01-19T16:20:28.685-06:00plenty of baseball teams undervalue players all th...<i>plenty of baseball teams undervalue players all the time and overvalue even more</i><br /><br />Pot, meet kettle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-87913398081017267452011-01-19T14:53:43.837-06:002011-01-19T14:53:43.837-06:00Excellent post Nick! You nailed my thoughts on all...Excellent post Nick! You nailed my thoughts on all this in one word. I like Aaron Gleeman's lengthy article title on the Hardball Talk website as well. I like Hardy and think we undervalued him and would rather have him and Nishioka then Casilla and Nishi. But that move isn't quite as bad, in my opinion, as the 1-2 punch of trading Ramos for Capps, then keeping him around so as to not of given up a top prospect for half a year of Capps. All around, terribad moves by Bill Smith.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-91550110385434576242011-01-19T14:26:29.205-06:002011-01-19T14:26:29.205-06:00INSANITY is the perfect headline. You said everyt...INSANITY is the perfect headline. You said everything I thought when I heard this news yesterday. Fuentes, a superior pitcher in my mind at least, got $8M for two years. How is Capps worth $7.15M? Disgusting. With the departures of Guerier and Crain and Rauch, how many leads will we watch disappear in the 6th and 7th before we could even hand the ball to Capps?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10801737413016498646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-5074741100481158742011-01-19T13:14:15.575-06:002011-01-19T13:14:15.575-06:00"And yes, when you watch as much baseball as ..."And yes, when you watch as much baseball as many of us do you can definitely use an eye test to determine range and arm." <br /><br />No you cant. Even if you did consistently see how far a player went, which you cant, you still have no perspective how much range an average player can cover which you would need to know in order to evaluate a player proficiency. You also have no capacity to catalog all the plays that a player has been involved in which will lead you to put more emphasis on things that have happened recently and things that were memorable, like very good look plays or very bad looking player. The eye test is just moderately to heavily biased guessing. Its stupid.<br /><br />"Couple that with the fact that the Twins are absolute sticklers for defense, do you think they would give Alexi the starting SS job if they weren't completely confident he could handle it defensively?"<br /><br />The twins are far more concerned with not making errors than they are with legitimately good defense. They've let rangeless players like orlando cabrera and brendan harris play SS the last 2 years. Tony bautista got half a season at 3b. Im certain the twins think cuddyer is a strong defender. They chose to play jason kubel in the outfield instead of carlos gomez for a lot of the second half of 2009 so they could get jose morales in as a DH. I dont think the twins do a very good job evaluating defense or they dont understand its importance, so i a confident they would trust casilla with the position even if he couldnt handle it.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-54311353444975851832011-01-19T13:06:49.225-06:002011-01-19T13:06:49.225-06:00Alexi,
Most of baseball, and certainly the Twins...Alexi, <br /><br />Most of baseball, and certainly the Twins, overvalue closers. This article from the great Joe Posnanski (http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/11/26/the-age-of-the-setup-man/) goes into greater detail, but to summarize:<br /><br />In 2010, teams entering the 9th with the lead won 95.5% of the time. In 1952, before the position of closer was invented, teams entering the 9th with the lead won 95.5% of the time. The percentage has remained pretty consistent throughout the years. Basically, defined "closers" have had zero impact on baseball.<br /><br />So it's not really an opinion of mine, but rather a fact. I'm sorry that most of baseball overvalues closers, but I'm afraid it's true.Ed Bastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-22784858850515317642011-01-19T12:38:20.102-06:002011-01-19T12:38:20.102-06:00An initial eye test gives you no actual perspectiv...<i>An initial eye test gives you no actual perspective on range. What you should have said is when ive watched him play hes made a lot of flashy plays, and flashy plays are a good indicator of strong defense. The eye test is stupid.</i><br /><br />It has nothing to do with flashy plays, you are making a lazy assumption that I am one of those people who thinks Jeter is a good fielder because of his jump throws etc.<br /><br />And yes, when you watch as much baseball as many of us do you can definitely use an eye test to determine range and arm.<br /><br />Couple that with the fact that the Twins are absolute sticklers for defense, do you think they would give Alexi the starting SS job if they weren't completely confident he could handle it defensively? <br /><br />Offensively it's another story with Twins management, but when it comes to defense it is often their way or the highway.<br /><br /><br />Nick:<br /><br />It's simply a case of some people completing over valuing Hardy by looking back on his two nice seasons from 3 years ago. Whether it's injury, pitchers figuring him out or just overall regression he just isn't that player anymore. <br /><br />Since his 2008 campaign his Iso has fallen from .195 to .128 to .126, couple that with the fact he has a poor OBP and no speed and you begin to see he just isn't that important offensively anymore.<br /><br />To throw out his draft status and prospect at this point is hilariously irrelevant as that was a decade ago, by that token the Twins should have picked up Dallas McPherson and Brandon Wood ten different times.VodkaDavenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-68490985221255039942011-01-19T12:36:52.795-06:002011-01-19T12:36:52.795-06:00Word, Nick. Nice work. Now, if you'll excuse...Word, Nick. Nice work. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go cry a little.<br /><br />I'm going to channel my inner Nick here, and respond to VodkaDave about Casilla's defensive potential at SS: Obviously, 233 innings at SS at the MLB level is not enough to make an informed decision about Casilla's ability at short. However, he has played almost 2000 innings at 2B and, according to every system to evaluate defense, has been pretty terrible at it. He's below average according to Total Zone Rating, BIS, Ultimate Zone Rating. Even his .975 fielding percentage is well below average for 2B if you don't trust advanced defensive metrics, as 2B fielded at a .984 rate in the AL last year.<br /><br />So what, if anything, leads you to believe that Casilla could possibly handle a harder position than 2B?The Common Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-16507086177186283962011-01-19T12:28:40.853-06:002011-01-19T12:28:40.853-06:00a)Nish/Casilla will not be a step down from Hardy/...a)Nish/Casilla will not be a step down from Hardy/Hudson/Plouffe/Tolbert/Harris/Cuddy and whoever else played there last season. Nick-are you really JJ Hardy?<br /><br />b)Relievers are dime a dozen. Rauch was losing confidence fast when Capps was obtained, but the difference between Capps and Rauch was probably 1, maybe 2 wins. <br /><br />c)Capps was probably signed because it would be hard to part with your top prospect for a half-season with a guy that really didn't change things at all.<br /><br />d)There is already a contigency plan for Morneau...his name is Cuddy.<br /><br />e)Bill Smith has made some really questionable decisions over the years. If it were me (assuming I inherited his mess with prior contracts), I would've let Hudson and Hardy go, avoided Nish, got Infante from the Braves, let Casilla/Infante fill the middle, resigned Crain, Rauch, Guerrier and Capps, let Thome go, and resigned Kubel. Then, next year, adios to Cuddy and Nathan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-78826747426952409352011-01-19T12:25:15.557-06:002011-01-19T12:25:15.557-06:00You people crack me up. You act like its your mone...You people crack me up. You act like its your money that the Twins are spending. Nick, you are such a downer.Ed devalues closers. Well, Ed, the whole of baseball values them highly. So your opinion is worthless.<br /><br />To see how Nick mourns Hardy is really kind of weird.Alexinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-60239770313557925482011-01-19T12:22:25.835-06:002011-01-19T12:22:25.835-06:00The twins infield should concern twins fans. Casil...<i>The twins infield should concern twins fans. Casillas ceiling is an average middle infielder and hes never shown he can consistently perform anywhere near that modest level. No one knows anything about nishioka but the list of good middle infielders to come from japan is extremely short. Id guess hes more likely to be bad than he is to be average. Valencia is going to regress because his babip was very fluky last year. Im sure not all of these players will be bad, but its exceptionally likely at least one is, and for backups we have tolbert and plouffe. If a lot of things go right i think this infield has a chance to be average, but id say theres a stronger chance they are one of the leagues worst, and there is no depth at these positions if things go bad.</i><br /><br />Nailed it.<br /><br /><i>I think it comes down to the fact that JJ Hardy just isn't that good of a player.</i><br /><br />Look, there's just not any question that Hardy is a really talented shortstop. He was a high draft pick, a top prospect coming up, and by his third year in the majors he was one of the league's best at his position.<br /><br />I don't know what happened to him in '09, but he's still only 28 and he showed signs of bouncing back last year, especially after putting his wrist issues behind him in the second half.<br /><br />I agree that MLB general managers don't seem to value Hardy all that much, but plenty of baseball teams undervalue players all the time and overvalue even more.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-29600212721015948982011-01-19T11:21:20.173-06:002011-01-19T11:21:20.173-06:00Man Vodka dave, these stats you are using have com...Man Vodka dave, these stats you are using have completely unusable sample sizes. He had 59 plays at SS last year and you think its responsible to list a UZR/150? Did you know that doug mientkiewicz has a UZR/150 of 22.6 at 2b? I know, I know, small sample size but still. He's got a much large sample at 2b that says hes an awful defender. UZR does peg him as a solid 2010 defender but making judgments about a players defense based UZR using a tiny sample from 1 season is foolish. Other advanced metrics like +/- list him as a pretty non discript defender. Youd have to use very shaky statistics to quantify casilla as a damn fine defensive player. <br /><br />"When I watch him play I see a kid with great range, and a good arm." An initial eye test gives you no actual perspective on range. What you should have said is when ive watched him play hes made a lot of flashy plays, and flashy plays are a good indicator of strong defense. The eye test is stupid.<br /><br />The twins infield should concern twins fans. Casillas ceiling is an average middle infielder and hes never shown he can consistently perform anywhere near that modest level. No one knows anything about nishioka but the list of good middle infielders to come from japan is extremely short. Id guess hes more likely to be bad than he is to be average. Valencia is going to regress because his babip was very fluky last year. Im sure not all of these players will be bad, but its exceptionally likely at least one is, and for backups we have tolbert and plouffe. If a lot of things go right i think this infield has a chance to be average, but id say theres a stronger chance they are one of the leagues worst, and there is no depth at these positions if things go bad.lvl 5 Charizardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-1278288658948988922011-01-19T11:19:14.244-06:002011-01-19T11:19:14.244-06:00I don't think we are better off, I just don...I don't think we are better off, I just don't think its the huge disaster some are making it out to be.VodkaDavenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-74784168736294023142011-01-19T11:16:57.560-06:002011-01-19T11:16:57.560-06:00VodkaDave - I agree that Nick somewhat overvalues ...VodkaDave - I agree that Nick somewhat overvalues Hardy, he's entitled to that opinion. But do you seriously think that we're better off with Casilla at shortstop? I sure don't.cy1timenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-66282521390115060482011-01-19T10:59:18.092-06:002011-01-19T10:59:18.092-06:00I think it comes down to the fact that JJ Hardy ju...I think it comes down to the fact that JJ Hardy just isn't that good of a player.<br /><br />For the second off-season in a row he was traded for a very marginal return (Gomez in 2009 and a couple minor league arms who won't crack the Twins top 30 prospects in 2010)<br />The fact that both teams that traded him have good and well regarded G.M.s speaks volumes about JJ Hardy's true value.VodkaDavenoreply@blogger.com