tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post6118268448479069628..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: My Offseason BlueprintNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-38168474553087061362011-11-08T09:38:21.635-06:002011-11-08T09:38:21.635-06:00I have to wonder, though, how much influence Terry...I have to wonder, though, how much influence Terry Ryan had on some of those Bill Smith moves. If he had lots of influence, obviously, this isn't really "moving on," is it?<br />If not, and if TR is the main guy looking for the next guy to call the shots and make the moves, let's hope he gets himself a guy with a more solid scouting background.<br />Overall, though, this was good for the club.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-55765002079622823552011-11-07T15:11:09.424-06:002011-11-07T15:11:09.424-06:00Where's Ed? Bill Smith gets fired- he should ...Where's Ed? Bill Smith gets fired- he should be here immediately.<br /><br />I kid, I kid. But wow. I'm impressed by this move. I still don't think an entire cleaning of the Twins' FO and management is necessary, but this is a move that's definitely positive for the club. I don't think every Bill Smith move was bad, but he had enough terrible moves and not enough redeeming ones so that it was time for the team to move on.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-49631872584943658182011-11-07T15:09:00.165-06:002011-11-07T15:09:00.165-06:00trade for Wieters. give them $ and our [former] ca...trade for Wieters. give them $ and our [former] catcher....sLOw-calhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08390738560302487798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-83384296148938777312011-11-07T14:05:53.309-06:002011-11-07T14:05:53.309-06:00Big pitching pickups already this offseason for bo...Big pitching pickups already this offseason for both Cleveland and KC. Twins need to make a better move than picking up two mediocre (at best) relievers if they want to contend next year. Lincecum and Wilson are impossible and highly unlikely (respectively), but hopefully they can find some improvement somewhere. <br /><br />Otherwise, I see the Twins' rotation as being far back of all four teams in the central, barring Pavano and Liriano pitching like they did in 2010, Baker staying healthy and pitching like he did in 2011, and Slowey and Blackburn staying healthy and capable of locking down the back of the rotation.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-6507449738909009622011-11-07T09:47:26.717-06:002011-11-07T09:47:26.717-06:00One important note to all of the offseason thought...One important note to all of the offseason thoughts is that Morneau is not going to play 1st base anymore. He will be lucky to DH for a full season. If he had concussion problems in Auggust of this year after diving for a ground ball, he is done playing in the field and should probably retire. If the Twins are foolish enough to hope that he will play 1st base again, then they really are in big trouble. Think about it; 15 months after suffering a concussion he is having symptoms again after diving for a ground ball! If you can't see that his career is basically over, you are not facing reality! It is time to move on from Morneau and hope that Mauer can bounce back this year. <br />Old Twinkies FanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-10557002687890124852011-11-04T16:53:28.442-05:002011-11-04T16:53:28.442-05:00I'm beginning to think that coming up with a b...I'm beginning to think that coming up with a blueprint is futile until you decide two things. Is Mauer going to catch everyday? Is Morneau going to play first everyday? If I can say no and no to those two questions, then this gets easier. <br /><br />I just read the Oakland would trade anyone but Jemile Weeks (Rosenthal on FOX Sports). How about Kurt Suzuki? Might be a perfect fit. I wonder what it would take to get him? If they are targeting a new stadium in 3 years, maybe guys like Revere or Benson could be in a package that would interest them. <br /><br />Suzuki is young, reasonably cost controlled for a few years, and durable. If the Twins could get a guy like Suzuki to catch, they could just get it over with and move Mauer to first, Morneau to DH, then go from there. At least that would give us some clarity on what else we need to work on. <br /><br />It's difficult to know where to allocate money when you have two gusy that you can't count on to be in your lineup. Maybe I'm copping out, but this seems reaonable to me. I like this better than most of the Free Agent catching options.cy1timenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-72135042987434317272011-11-04T15:54:24.712-05:002011-11-04T15:54:24.712-05:00Thanks for the comedic relief, RR.
Mauer has ne...Thanks for the comedic relief, RR. <br /><br />Mauer has never been a power hitter. He hit what? 28 HRs in his MVP season? And the majority of those barely made it out in the HR friendly metrodome. Unless he unexpectedly develops HR power, he isn't getting close to 30.<br /><br />I'm not a Mauer hater at all- all the vitriol directed towards him all season has been absurd, IMO. I think Mauer can come back. Morneau, I'm not so sure. <br /><br />But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that both Mauer and Morneau come back strong, which I think everyone agrees needs to happen if the Twins are going to have a shot at competing next year. They will be extremely short on offense if they trade away Span and sign two ace level pitchers. They won't be able to afford to re-sign Cuddyer or Kubel, or go after any other FA. After they fill out the roster with some players, they'll have a max of about $30 MM to spend on FA's, all of which would go to the FA pitchers you name. <br /><br />So in addition to Mauer and Morneau, you have Revere, who isn't ready to be a productive hitter at the MLB level yet, at least not even an average hitter. Casilla, Nishioka, Valencia (who has great potential still), Butera, and an unknown outfield. Plouffe? Hughes? Tosoni? I doubt that lineup could hit 100 home runs over the year, it's weak all-around offensively and it isn't a very good defensive crew.<br /><br />I shouldn't have even taken the bait and responded... maybe if this were XBox we could get those two.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-23669233559758357502011-11-04T14:11:04.213-05:002011-11-04T14:11:04.213-05:00yo mike, the if the m&m boys dont skittle up, ...yo mike, the if the m&m boys dont skittle up, it dont matter who else we got, the seasons' down the poop shoot anyhow. even nicky n said that. there aint any good hitters out there we can afford anyohw., you say san fran hitting was xtra-hefty-bag trash, well last time i checked they dont have 3 mvps in there line-up! thats what you chumps dont get, we already gots the good hitters. you really think porneau's gonna get hurt 4th year in a row? what are the chances. and my man joe boy (Not the sandwhich( is down right pissed, he'll whack 30 ding dongs and laugh in u haters face. so if we gotta count on them boys anyhow, lez count on em and pony up on aces. peace!ruff rydernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-63615652708404163622011-11-04T13:51:22.328-05:002011-11-04T13:51:22.328-05:00Ruff rider chimed in at the perfect time. Like I ...Ruff rider chimed in at the perfect time. Like I said, some people's ideas are very interesting. <br /><br />In the NL, SF had the lowest BAA, 2nd lowest ERA, 2nd most quality starts, 2nd most SOs, and they still finished 8 games out in a mediocre division. Yes, pitching is obviously very important, but you can't ignore hitting if you expect to compete. Unless we're just assuming Morneau and Mauer return to form.<br /><br />And I'm not sure where the money would come from to sign Wilson and/or Lincecum. Wilson's stock isn't dropping and he's already indicated he doesn't want to leave Texas anyway. Which just means throw more money at him to lure him away. And Lincecum is a two time NL Cy Young winner, 27 y/o, and was a top NL pitcher again last year, making $14,000,000. And RR thinks the Twins can afford that and can afford to lose two of their top prospects and the only viable leadoff man on the roster? Ok.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-16273449877117535112011-11-04T12:45:26.197-05:002011-11-04T12:45:26.197-05:00saw that san fran might be shopping lincecum for s...saw that san fran might be shopping lincecum for some offense, bam here's our shot for the ace. offer up span + hicks + hendricks or somnething like that. cj wilson would be nice, i dont think he's going to get much after his playoff bust, 15 mil per and we can afford it. let the kiddies like revere and parmmasee play for cheap, why not, pitching the name of the game. just think, timmy cj pav baker frankie, that's world series right there. + u trade slowy and blacky and those bums for reliefers, thats your bullpen. and then udont care as much about ss/2b "d", sign nicky "p" on the cheap. and get a backed-up catcher for a couple mil. bam, u got a payroll at like 110 mil, AND not onyl are u lookin fine in the central but the worl series too. peace i'm out, this blue-print thing is a piece of cake, all u come up with is ryna duimit? ha!ruff rydernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-90088713236777080132011-11-03T18:19:30.356-05:002011-11-03T18:19:30.356-05:00Some people's ideas are interesting. I especi...Some people's ideas are interesting. I especially like the idea to sign Cuddyer at $7.5 million a year for two years, or other statements about signing him to a low amount. It's not going to be possible. The guy is going to get offers for 3-4 years at more than his salary for this past year. <br /><br />TB was also helped in the short term by having the top or near the top pick in the MLB draft consistently for several years. Those top players pan out much more frequently than lower draft picks and can be traded for good value most of the time. That, combined with good scouting and smart FO moves, is what's put TB at the top of the league. <br /><br />Twins have had the opposite for quite a while- bad scouting, bad FO the past few seasons, and they haven't had a top draft pick in a very long time. Of course, with a better FO, they would be in a much better position anyway.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-71792941212547051722011-11-03T16:10:28.983-05:002011-11-03T16:10:28.983-05:00The Twins market includes most of the Dakotas, par...The Twins market includes most of the Dakotas, parts of IA, WI, and all of the MN, TC area and outstate. They've been here for over half a century.<br /><br />The Rays have Tampa/St. Pete, and a small share of that area, at best.<br /><br />MN has a bunch of life long residents who take pride in anything local.<br /><br />TB/SP is full of snowbirds and retirees who are loyal to other teams (next time the Twins play in St. Pete, look and see how many Twins jerseys are in the crowd). Most of the locals are college football crazy and could care less about baseball.<br /><br />The Twins organization takes in much more revenue because of these factors, not just the comparitive populations of the metro areas where the ball parks now stand.<br /><br />In short, the Twins have a MUCH bigger market then the Rays, yet with the little payroll they have, they've put together an organization that is far superior today and set up better for the immediate future.<br /><br />Go figure...<br /><br />So, again, my point is that inflating payroll by signing expensive guys with injury issues (Reyes), overhyped starters who played on good defensive clubs (CJ Wilson) won't make you a champion, necessarily. Scouting, drafting, and player development, as well as accountability within management, wins the big ones.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-66569840940731730972011-11-03T15:54:48.992-05:002011-11-03T15:54:48.992-05:00^Anon, not sure what your point is but you cant ju...^Anon, not sure what your point is but you cant just make things up to prove it. MSP metro is 3.3 mil, TB/St. pete's metro is 2.7 mil. Do 2 seconds of research instead of make stuff up. TBtell the truth guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-34472311091507605982011-11-03T14:27:25.175-05:002011-11-03T14:27:25.175-05:00"To think, the Twins were so admired 8 years ..."To think, the Twins were so admired 8 years ago. Look at the Rays now; much better results in a teeny tiny market, slaying juggernauts just to get into the playoffs."<br /><br />Tampa/St.Petersburg/Sarasota is NOT a teeny tiny market. It has a pop. of 4M so it's bigger than the Twin Cities area. The ballpark sucks and so does the attendance, but it's not because it's a small market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-22594343171688548632011-11-03T14:18:41.620-05:002011-11-03T14:18:41.620-05:00Yup, winning comes from the front office and the c...Yup, winning comes from the front office and the culture the owner sets. Winning and profitability can go together if you have a discerning fan base, which we do not. Most people are happy just being at Target Field right now, but that won't last forever.<br />If you have a rich, quiet owner who hires a GM and judges them solely on W's and L's, in line with what they're promising (like, the GM shows the owner a 5-year plan and is judged against that), and it meets your business goals at the same time, great. It's like any other work place.<br />I agree though that the Pohlad's show all this "loyalty" to the front office and coaches, but not the fans. We don't know what goes on behind closed doors, but it sure seems like the metrics to which GMs and coaches have been measured against are lacsidasical at best.<br /><br />To think, the Twins were so admired 8 years ago. Look at the Rays now; much better results in a teeny tiny market, slaying juggernauts just to get into the playoffs.<br /><br />So, what to do? It really depends on the M&M boys condition and if they have a few good years left or not. I still like Nick's strategy for the time being, it is time to address the rotation in some way. FA market, try and draft a stud who's only a year or two away, trade, etc...Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-61896774175136843362011-11-03T13:28:27.501-05:002011-11-03T13:28:27.501-05:00"Well, no kidding. Baseball is a business.&qu..."Well, no kidding. Baseball is a business."<br /><br />To be fair, the reviled Yankees and Red Sox, who we all hold up as prime examples of this, also mix in a steady committment to winning. They often exceed budget, they hold people accountable for their mistakes, and they aren't afraid to shake things up if things are headed in the wrong direction.<br /><br />Baseball's a business, sure. The good franchises are able to balance the business side of things with at least a moderate desire to win. The Pohlads have never demonstrated the latter. Jim admitted as much in that Strib interview after the season, saying "payroll spending tends to reflect" an org's committment to winning, and then later in the interview saying 2012 payroll will "naturally come down" from 2011 levels.<br /><br />But again, there's no use fighting it anymore. Bad owners who treat their fans with contempt can be overcome; unfortunately, bad front offices typically cannot.Ed Bastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-40875233048079762752011-11-03T13:09:43.105-05:002011-11-03T13:09:43.105-05:00Rafael Furcal.Jason Kendall. Mark Buehrle. Resign ...Rafael Furcal.Jason Kendall. Mark Buehrle. Resign Cuddy to two years at 7.5 each. Resign Nathan at 7 each.Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-15107730189177031202011-11-03T12:32:50.445-05:002011-11-03T12:32:50.445-05:00Funny how people take issue with the Pohlad's ...Funny how people take issue with the Pohlad's treating the Twins as "nothing more than a profit vehicle." Well, no kidding. Baseball is a business.<br />That being said, I agree that bloated payrolls don't bring in championships. Good scouting, player development, and savvy front office moves get the job done. There are too many successful teams in the past decade of Yankee/Red Sox payroll dominance to name them off here...<br /><br />Every club needs an eye to the future, the decision on how you treat the M&M boys now and in the years to come is huge. Surround them with some veteran competance or play with a bunch of kids? I have to agree with Nick that if you want to at least have a shot at competing, you have to go and get some reliable players so you at least know what you're getting instead of rolling the dice on kids.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10984504525577892812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-62839745493865190872011-11-03T10:42:12.377-05:002011-11-03T10:42:12.377-05:00Also, Nick: Baker, Liriano, Pavano are all likely ...Also, Nick: Baker, Liriano, Pavano are all likely free agents after this year. It's remarkably short-sighted to ignore starting pitching this offseason, or we could be looking at a 2013 starting rotation of Blackburn, Duensing, Swarzak, Matt Maloney, and Scott Diamond. This team needs to have one eye on building for the future.Ed Bastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-74179372854058370822011-11-03T10:22:53.504-05:002011-11-03T10:22:53.504-05:00Rich Harden? I'm a Twins fan who lives in Chi...Rich Harden? I'm a Twins fan who lives in Chi town, and watched him for the Cubs. We have a staff full of "Hardens". No way. Period. We need reliability, durability, and an Ace. Period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-88029035116243261882011-11-03T09:42:17.828-05:002011-11-03T09:42:17.828-05:00"Everyone complains about the pitching staff,..."Everyone complains about the pitching staff, but all those starters who helped propel the Twins to 94 wins in 2010 are still here."<br /><br />Where to start?<br /><br />1. The 2010 team had solid infield defense. <br />2. The 2010 team had a bullpen.<br />3. Nick Blackburn was terrible in 10, terrible again in 11. If given the chance he'll be terrible again in 12. <br />4. Carl Pavano is 2 years older and is going to give up a ton of hits.<br />5. The 10 team had an offense that could score runs and win 6-5 games. <br />6. Due to the organization's flawed pitching philosophy which they refuse to adjust, Baker, Slowey, Blacky, and Frankie have been programmed to shut down in-game at 100 pitches and in-season at about 140 innings. They're going to get hurt and they're going to max out the bullpen. (Note that Carl Pavano, the only guy not raised in the Twins system, has reached 200+ innings two years in a row). <br /><br />Just because X years ago the Twins did Y does not mean the Twins should refuse to change anything coming off a 99-loss season. To say that the Twins won the division in 2010 so they don't need to improve the rotation in 2012 is absolutely baffling.Ed Bastnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-7797165283959380282011-11-02T22:48:14.565-05:002011-11-02T22:48:14.565-05:00I have serious questions about adding Rich Harden....I have serious questions about adding Rich Harden. 3 mil for a year would be good, but his durability is getting worse the last 3 years, not better. He wasn't really effective in Oakland last year, even though he struck out 10 per 9, and his walk rate improved significantly. <br /><br />He allowed the most hits per 9 in his entire career last year, and he's turning 30. Not a recipe for improvement. At best, Harden is rotation depth who might have some upside left until he gets hurt. (And you know he will)Andrew Madisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-63333658426287749402011-11-02T22:17:26.357-05:002011-11-02T22:17:26.357-05:00I hope Punto doesn't want to come back to the ...I hope Punto doesn't want to come back to the Twins. Why would he want to leave St. Louis at this time to come to a team that lost 99games in 2011? It would serve all of us fans (including me) right who only missed him when he was gone not to come back. <br /><br />Seems to me that the Twins would have to significantly overpay Punto to even get him to consider coming back, like a 2-year contract for 1.5 mil a year. We shouldn't assume that the Twins can just go and get Punto to come back. He will have a few other options this winter.Andrew Madisonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-83367140844057330272011-11-02T20:54:21.056-05:002011-11-02T20:54:21.056-05:00If you look at that lineup you basically have Doum...<i>If you look at that lineup you basically have Doumit taking Cuddyer's spot in the lineup and Plouffe taking Young's. That is a significant downgrade in two spots. And both of them are defensive liabilities.</i><br /><br />I wouldn't assume that. It's not hard for me to fathom Plouffe putting up a .750 OPS next year, and with superior defense. Doumit will be a downgrade from Cuddyer, yes, but who knows how Cuddy will perform next year anyway. He's never put together back-to-back outstanding seasons in his career.<br /><br /><i>I would not "let him walk", but I wouldn't hand him a big three year contract either. But I would do two years or a modest three year deal. </i><br /><br />So in other words, you would let him walk. Cuddyer is going to get a lucrative three-year deal at the least, and I'd bet he gets four years.<br /><br />We'd all like to keep Cuddyer, but he's a hot commodity and is going to get overpaid. It's been indicated that he's ready to sign with the highest bidder.<br /><br /><i>The worst thing the Twins can do is straddle the fence. This blueprint seems to do that a little.</i><br /><br />I disagree. Straddling the fence is exactly what they should do. A lineup powered by Morneau, Mauer, Kubel and Span -- when they're going good -- can do some damage. You don't want to inhibit that core by surrounding it with garbage. <br /><br />Everyone complains about the pitching staff, but all those starters who helped propel the Twins to 94 wins in 2010 are still here. Most of them had bad years; it doesn't necessarily mean they're bad pitchers. They're all still young and in some cases immature. But all of this grumbling is going to seem silly if Liriano and Slowey apply themselves in the offseason, and come back pitching like they did the prior year. <br /><br />Yeah, it'll take a lot of good breaks for the Twins to contend next year. But why not give it a shot, when the alternative is throwing kids like Parmelee and Benson into the fire when it's not even clear that it would benefit them? Neither has played a game in Triple-A. <br /><br />One thing is for sure: you'll keep the fans a lot more satisfied by spending money and at least making an earnest effort at putting a winning team on the field. An all-out rebuild is pretty tough to justify, unless you truly believe they've got no shot.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-34996883198968931112011-11-02T18:51:39.159-05:002011-11-02T18:51:39.159-05:00Doumit's career splits make him a much better ...Doumit's career splits make him a much better left handed hitter than right handed. He did all right in limited at bats last year, but he really wasn't good at all before that. <br /><br /><br />If you look at that lineup you basically have Doumit taking Cuddyer's spot in the lineup and Plouffe taking Young's. That is a significant downgrade in two spots. And both of them are defensive liabilities.<br /><br />I am not a great fan of Cuddyer's, but they need to add a reliable right handed bat. I would not "let him walk", but I wouldn't hand him a big three year contract either. But I would do two years or a modest three year deal. <br /><br />The real focus has to be the pitching staff. If they can get Harden cheap, great. But what they really need is a third relatively reliable starter to go with Baker and Pavano. They have lots of options for filling the last two spots.<br /><br />I agree on Nathan. If they can get him for two years at a reasonable price they should do that. If not, they need to look outside the organization.<br /><br /><br />That all assumes they are going to try to compete next year. But if you really think Morneau and Mauer are going to have to move to DH/1B, then the Twins should be in rebuilding mode in 2011. <br /><br />In that case, spending millions on a two or three year deals for aging players makes no sense. The 2011 season needs to be used to find guys who can help win a future championship. In that case, you hand a guy like Parmelee the DH/RF/1B spot. You play Plouffe somewhere you think he can stick. And you audition young pitchers for the rotation and the bullpen. <br /><br />The worst thing the Twins can do is straddle the fence. This blueprint seems to do that a little.TThttp://grannybaseball.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com