tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post1745146867987464035..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: Two Steps Forward, Two Steps BackNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-32751698349322748712007-07-09T19:08:00.000-05:002007-07-09T19:08:00.000-05:00Yes, but we've been saying that all year and they'...<I>Yes, but we've been saying that all year and they're both still batting around .250.</I><BR/><BR/>The bad luck that they had in the past isn't going away. Once you've had a run of bad luck for a month or so, it's very unlikely that your season numbers will look like they ought to.<BR/><BR/>PrOPS was invented by J.C. Bradbury because he felt that Chipper Jones was hitting the ball hard in 2004, but that he'd had bad luck for the entire season. The next season rolled around, and he picked up right where he left off. You can be unlucky for as much as an entire season. It happens. And we're not even talking about a half of a season here. Gardy's "protected" Kubel so much that he doesn't even qualify for the league rate statistics titles.<BR/><BR/>Over the last 28 days, Kubel's batting .273, which is closer to his PrOPS average of .288 than it is his season average of .250. Overall, in the last 28 days, Kubel has hit .273/.333/.470, which looks a lot like his PrOPS line of .288/.336/.447, which is also very similar to what PECOTA thought he could hit this season (.285/.342/.460). Going forward, Jason Kubel is not the problem. Jason Kubel is one of the answers, but he is not the problem.<BR/><BR/><I>right now he's striking out almost three times as often as he's walking. No good.</I><BR/><BR/>It's just not that simple. Some of the better hitters with a higher strikeout rate than Kubel and a lower walk rate:<BR/><BR/>Hunter Pence<BR/>Ryan Garko<BR/>Alfonso Soriano<BR/>Howie Kendrick<BR/>Carl Crawford<BR/>Xavier Nady<BR/>Sammy Sosa<BR/>Jeff Francoeur<BR/><BR/>If you raise the threshold for walk rate from 6.8% to 8.0%, you also add Mike Cameron and Curtis Granderson, amongst others.<BR/><BR/>Those are productive major league hitters. There's nothing that says you can't be a valuable hitter AND strike out a lot. Kubel has to hit for a decent average to be a good hitter, but he has a track record that says he can hit for a decent average, and he's been hitting a lot of line drives this year.<BR/><BR/>Basically, Kubel is 9 singles and 1 double off of what PECOTA thought he could do before the season, and what PrOPS thinks he deserves based on his balls-in-play this season. Is it <I>really</I> that hard to fathom that he could have been unlucky to the tune of less than one hit per week? And are those 10 missing hits really enough for you to think he can't hit .285/.335/.445 over the second half of the season?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-44646808106087531082007-07-09T17:57:00.000-05:002007-07-09T17:57:00.000-05:00I never expected Kubel to draw a lot walks in the ...I never expected Kubel to draw a lot walks in the big leagues, I just expected him to limit his strikeouts and maintain a nearly even K/BB ratio. So far as a major leaguer he has struck out 100 times in 520 AB while drawing just 36 walks.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-40267718923023636262007-07-09T15:04:00.000-05:002007-07-09T15:04:00.000-05:00In looking at the numbers, Kubel really didn't hav...In looking at the numbers, Kubel really didn't have outstanding patience in the minors, so I'm not surprised that his isolated discipline is sitting at 0.52. If you just look at his longest minor league seasons (2002 and 2003), Kubel's isolated discliplines were 0.59 and 0.63. Given that minor league pitchers probably don't have as great of control and Kubel was able to light them up better, the difference is negligable. Really, the surprise has to be his high strikeouts. Even without great patience, those who limits their strikeouts tend to be more effective.Nick M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05029328242185237902noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-38000684677065135412007-07-09T14:19:00.000-05:002007-07-09T14:19:00.000-05:00At the same time, they both have very low batting ...<I>At the same time, they both have very low batting averages on balls in play, which should not be the case for someone hitting line drives.<BR/><BR/>This suggests that they will both regress towards the mean, which means that those line drives will start falling for hits and their batting averages will jump accordingly.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, but we've been saying that all year and they're both still batting around .250. <BR/><BR/><I>Kubel doesn't have to get better right now; first he just has to stop being so absurdly unlucky. If you're hitting a line drive 25% of the time, you're in line to get a lot of hits.</I><BR/><BR/>Bad luck is a part of it, but the fact remains that Kubel is striking out way too much right now and showing very poor discipline at the plate. Those things are both fully under the player's control will almost always lead to a low batting average. Kubes had a K/BB ratio that was nearly even throughout his minor league career; right now he's striking out almost three times as often as he's walking. No good.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-58710094882579595262007-07-09T13:00:00.000-05:002007-07-09T13:00:00.000-05:00Another thing to watch for is Bartlett. Both Kubel...Another thing to watch for is Bartlett. Both Kubel and Bartlett are among the league leaders in line drive percentage, with over 25% of their balls in play being line drives.<BR/><BR/>At the same time, they both have very low batting averages on balls in play, which should not be the case for someone hitting line drives.<BR/><BR/>This suggests that they will both regress towards the mean, which means that those line drives will start falling for hits and their batting averages will jump accordingly.<BR/><BR/>Kubel doesn't have to get better right now; first he just has to stop being so absurdly unlucky. If you're hitting a line drive 25% of the time, you're in line to get a lot of hits.Sean Schultehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01018653508895669735noreply@blogger.com