tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post137428986699467075..comments2023-12-19T20:25:36.069-06:00Comments on Nick's Twins Blog: State of the RotationNick N.http://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-43054326347210948922010-01-05T14:36:48.013-06:002010-01-05T14:36:48.013-06:00Those are all starts - they eased him into things ...Those are all starts - they eased him into things like in spring training.<br /><br />Gardy apparently got a report that Liriano is "throwing the living fire out of the ball," with 92-94 mph heat. There's probably some hyperbole there, but a 27/4 K/BB suggests that however hard he's throwing, he's hitting his spots.neckrollshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09173753481536697590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-44425153560494008562010-01-05T13:35:26.897-06:002010-01-05T13:35:26.897-06:00Luke,
Trading Nathan will definitely hurt if you ...Luke,<br /><br />Trading Nathan will definitely hurt if you don't have anyone to replace him. But closers are the most unusual of baseball players - there are a handful every year that are 'found'. Nathan is a perfect example of this - he had almost no saves when he came to the Twins. That's why you'll notice in my previous post that I wondered if Liriano could be groomed to replace him. Not saying he will or should, but could he?<br /><br />WARP3 is great, but his ranking as one of the best 3 players on the team is as much a function of the Twins not having a deep team as it is of his dominance. Like I said, he has been a top 3 closer for at least the last five years, but who else besides Santana, Mauer and Morneau is going to rank as 'better than average' over that time period? Santana is gone, Kubel didn't really emerge until the second half of 2008, Cuddyer has battled injuries in 2007 & 2008... There aren't a whole lot of options to knock him out of the top three.<br /><br />I think the biggest problem is, what are you going to be able to get for him? You can't trade a top flight closer and expect a MLB ready 2B or 3B in return. Who wants a top flight, top paid closer? Teams fighting for the playoffs. How many of them are willing to give up a player from their everyday lineup in return? Or have a super-stud prospect that they are willing to part with? Typical closer trades net three or four prospects, with maybe one of them being considered 'elite' and possibly one of them being 'near LB ready' - that doesn't help the Twins in their current situation - unless he were traded when his salary can be used to bring in solid free agent.<br /><br />Looking at this year's free agents, I'd guess that Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf, Tim Hudson, Adrian Beltre, and Rich Harden would have the ability to rank in the Twins top three in WARP3 next season, and they all signed for less per season than the $11 million Nathan will make next year.<br /><br />And Neckrolls,<br /><br />Those Liriano stats are pretty hot. I don't follow the winter league, but is an average of just over 4 starts typical for starters? Or has he been used out of the bullpen as well?Breakernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-5956795259762366222010-01-05T10:55:38.148-06:002010-01-05T10:55:38.148-06:00I find the idea that Nathan's not worth 10 mil...I find the idea that Nathan's not worth 10 million to the Twins next year sort of crazy. Here's Nathan's team rank in WARP3 for the last 6 years:<br /><br />2009: 2nd<br />2008: 2<br />2007: 1<br />2006: 2<br />2005: 3<br />2004: 2<br /><br />He's been the first, second, or third best player on this team every year for six years, but you want to trade him to get some salary flexibility? Who exactly are you going to get who will help this team more than losing Nathan will hurt?Luke in Mpls.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-31717400240558745262010-01-04T22:37:11.607-06:002010-01-04T22:37:11.607-06:00Here are Liriano's numbers through 5 starts in...Here are Liriano's numbers through 5 starts in the Dominican Winter League:<br /><br />21.2 IP, 14 H, 2 ER, 0 HR, 4 BB, 27 K, 0.83 ERA, 0.83 WHIP<br /><br />What level is the DWL equivalent to? AAA? AA? AA+? Obviously the hitters are beneath the major league standard, but you've still got to be encouraged by the K/BB ratio. Has anyone seen any scouting reports from down there? I'd love to know if they're noticing anything different in his velocity or delivery...neckrollshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09173753481536697590noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-58909770151995156962010-01-02T22:18:58.676-06:002010-01-02T22:18:58.676-06:00The Sox have a very solid rotation and are shaping...The Sox have a very solid rotation and are shaping up as a legit contender, but they'll need some guys to step up on offense.<br /><br />This may be so in about 2 years. The Sox may have good pitching but they have zippo for defense. Seriously, who would want to have an infield of Teahen, Ramirez, Gordon, and Konerko and an outfield of Quentin, Rios, and Pierre? <br /><br />There will be a lot of hits (or errors committed) in Chicago leading to runs, leading to a pitching staff who starts falling because they no longer can trust their defense. Also, the Sox offense is in question with aging veterans and only a few young players (Ramirez and Gordon).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-64854750061539973942010-01-02T15:11:40.750-06:002010-01-02T15:11:40.750-06:00Having $11 million to play with would give Bill Sm...<i>Having $11 million to play with would give Bill Smith the opportunity (this year) to sign someone like Figgins or Beltre, or even a combination of Orlando Hudson & Rich Harden or Ben Sheets.</i><br /><br />Having that extra flexibility would certainly be helpful, but I just can't see the Twins moving Nathan. Their bullpen is shrouded in too much doubt for that move to make sense. If we knew what to expect from Neshek and I was a little more confident in Guerrier and Mijares to repeat what they did last season, I might be a little more open to that idea.<br /><br /><i>I think they should trade perkins and liriano for an ace like josh johnson if the marlins will give him up.</i><br /><br />That's not realistic.<br /><br /><i>The key for the White Sox: getting production out of Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios.</i><br /><br />This is exactly right. The Sox have a very solid rotation and are shaping up as a legit contender, but they'll need some guys to step up on offense.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-25457899704314711172010-01-02T10:55:59.629-06:002010-01-02T10:55:59.629-06:00As a White Sox fan, allow me to temper Ozzie Rules...As a White Sox fan, allow me to temper Ozzie Rules' comments a bit.<br /><br />The Twins' rotation is above average, but certainly not as strong as the White Sox' first four of Peavy, Buerhle, Floyd, and Danks.<br /><br />Morneau and Mauer are the great equalizers though, if they both stay healthy all year.<br /><br />The key for the White Sox: getting production out of Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios.<br /><br />The big questions for the Twins: 1)the bullpen, particularly with Nathan's confidence in doubt, and 2) how will they perform without one of the best home field advantages in the game after leaving the Metrodome?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-21136037347731538202010-01-01T21:51:03.206-06:002010-01-01T21:51:03.206-06:00I think they should trade perkins and liriano for ...I think they should trade perkins and liriano for an ace like josh johnson if the marlins will give him up. We have tons of depth and perkins wont pitch for us anyways because of the grievance he filed and liriano still has potential. The twins also need to sign a 2b like lopez because casilla sucks.Connor Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-75665746375448550082010-01-01T21:49:49.079-06:002010-01-01T21:49:49.079-06:00I think they should trade perkins and liriano for ...I think they should trade perkins and liriano for an ace like josh johnson if the marlins will give him up. We have tons of depth and perkins wont pitch for us anyways because of the grievance he filed and liriano still has potential. The twins also need to sign a 2b like lopez because casilla sucks.Connor Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-79358625632774734012010-01-01T20:14:13.386-06:002010-01-01T20:14:13.386-06:00shouldn't be worried about filling the "5...shouldn't be worried about filling the "5-hole." We already have 4 starters, none qualify higher than the 3-spot of any other team's rotation. We should worry about signing a pitcher with ace caliber stuff who maybe had an off year or an injury, but not Washburn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-73808381459666950002010-01-01T16:06:32.701-06:002010-01-01T16:06:32.701-06:00Ozzie rules.
You are correct the Twins don't ...Ozzie rules.<br /><br />You are correct the Twins don't have a chance won't win a game all year.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04707140610910808988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-54663967842355974282010-01-01T14:40:29.987-06:002010-01-01T14:40:29.987-06:00Sorry Twins fan but compared to the White Sox rota...Sorry Twins fan but compared to the White Sox rotation your starters look like minor leaguers. Get used to looking up at the Sox in the standings all summer. Sometimes the truth hurts. It must suck knowing the only chance you have for the playoffs is the wildcard and that ain't gonna happen.Ozzie Ruleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00621875346883806826noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-17831603282980486042010-01-01T12:52:15.111-06:002010-01-01T12:52:15.111-06:00I like how this starting rotation is shaping up. ...I like how this starting rotation is shaping up. Nick is right though we don't have an ace. The way is see it Pavano is a solid middle of the rotation guy, along with Nick Blackburn. Baker and Slowey have a little more power and higher ceiling. They are solid #2 or #3 starters.<br />As for the fifth spot its a crapshoot. I like Duensing a lot, but he is so inexperienced, ya have to wonder how teams will hit him once they see him enough. Liriano, I want to see the 2006 version again so bad, but its not likely to happen. He is not mentally with it and despite what some folks have said, the end of 2008 wasn't that great of a run for him. He really hasn't been at all the same since TJ surgery.<br />Glen Perkins is yet another lefty option, but this guy is also not mentally strong and doesn't seem to have very strong stuff. <br />I think the Twins should move this glut of starting pitching for a 3rd or 2nd baseman. Sure we might be thin in the rotation for a few years, but we have Swarzak, Duensing, and eventually Bromberg & Gibson to fill the gap.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03719600932455749377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-25609825165880143382010-01-01T12:25:25.856-06:002010-01-01T12:25:25.856-06:00Nick, I like your commentary here. I think you ar...Nick, I like your commentary here. I think you are pretty much spot on with your thoughts.<br /><br />Regarding Liriano, I would love to see the Twins try him out in the bullpen, and potentially groom him to take over for Joe Nathan. Am I crazy, or is that a real option? <br /><br />I'm not in the 'Trade Nathan!' camp because of his postseason meltdowns - he is easily one of the top 3 closer in the majors over the last five years, and I don't think that is going to change (at least not this year). But I do think it might make some sense, especially if we are struggling at the trade deadline. It seems that Nathan's salary is a real stumbling block for building a deep team (ie, an 'ace' starting pitcher, or actually having competent hitters on our bench).<br /><br />Having $11 million to play with would give Bill Smith the opportunity (this year) to sign someone like Figgins or Beltre, or even a combination of Orlando Hudson & Rich Harden or Ben Sheets.<br /><br />So, am I being crazy, or are those thoughts reasonable?Breakernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-73812208776734545552009-12-31T14:43:08.461-06:002009-12-31T14:43:08.461-06:00just wondering -- if Perkins has reduced trade val...<i>just wondering -- if Perkins has reduced trade value right now because he's coming off an injury, could that actually help him land a spot in the rotation?</i><br /><br />If Perkins is still here, I'd guess that he's in the rotation on Opening Day. I'm just pretty skeptical of whether he'll be here.<br /><br /><i>Make Liriano into a LOOGY and he should help the team, otherwise he can be the mop-up guy with Bobby Keppel (assuming he makes the team).</i><br /><br />Of course, Liriano opened the 2006 season in the bullpen and we all know how that worked out. Letting him gain some confidence during short relief stints might be the best route. I'd ultimately like to see him back in the rotation, though.<br /><br /><i>I know this borders on the "Ramon Ortiz / Sidney Ponson" category however I would like the Twins to consider taking a flier on Ben Sheets for an incentive laden one year deal.</i><br /><br />Ben Sheets would be a lot different from Ortiz/Ponson in that such a signing would actually carry legitimate upside. I think the Twins would be very wise to take a flier on one of the guys you mentioned; they have enough depth that they wouldn't be crippled if the move didn't work out.Nick N.https://www.blogger.com/profile/00848574337121154690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-11999302006601886142009-12-31T07:18:17.027-06:002009-12-31T07:18:17.027-06:00I know this borders on the "Ramon Ortiz / Sid...I know this borders on the "Ramon Ortiz / Sidney Ponson" category however I would like the Twins to consider taking a flier on Ben Sheets for an incentive laden one year deal. Of course at this point in the free agent season, I am sure Sheets and his agent are looking for something better than that. <br /><br />Other pitchers in the "for the right price" category I would have interest in.<br />Erik Bedard<br />Daniel Cabrera<br />Jon Garland<br />Mark Mulder<br />Mark Prior<br />Tim Redding<br />Chein-Ming Wang<br />Kip Wells<br /><br />Disclaimer, I haven't looked close enough to see if any of these names have been snatched. Best case scenario is you can sign one of these guys to a minor league deal, and if he doesn't make it out of spring training send him to Rochester. (This of course would appease the Jim Mandelero's of the world. Close circuit to Jim, "Stop complaining about who the Twins have in AAA, it is low on the list of priorites.)<br /><br />LoudjonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-53634725611066582292009-12-31T00:40:44.434-06:002009-12-31T00:40:44.434-06:00@ Anonymous: Good idea. Of course, you also run th...@ Anonymous: Good idea. Of course, you also run the risk that he pitches poorly and hurts his trade value even more...<br /><br />I agree with everything you said, Nick. Duensing in the rotation and Liriano in the bullpen sounds pretty good. Make Liriano into a LOOGY and he should help the team, otherwise he can be the mop-up guy with Bobby Keppel (assuming he makes the team).<br /><br />I should really start commenting here again!Bryzhttp://weareoffthemark.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-66604374376682191142009-12-30T22:25:15.127-06:002009-12-30T22:25:15.127-06:00just wondering -- if Perkins has reduced trade val...just wondering -- if Perkins has reduced trade value right now because he's coming off an injury, could that actually help him land a spot in the rotation? He already has two things going for him, being a veteran and left-handed. If you give him the nod over the competition, and he does well, you can trade him for a lot more. If he tanks I guess you're stuck with him, but he's still useful in the bullpen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-30593059647367715122009-12-30T20:46:10.899-06:002009-12-30T20:46:10.899-06:00Whoops! That should have read "sticking WITH...Whoops! That should have read "sticking WITH the pitchers we have", not "sticking the pitchers we have".sploorphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06278485961012000866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-65116560528070075712009-12-30T20:44:06.670-06:002009-12-30T20:44:06.670-06:00I'm confident that the 5 hole will be filled f...I'm confident that the 5 hole will be filled from within. Personally, I kind of like the idea of sticking the pitchers we have, then maybe making a trade at the deadline if need be.<br /><br />I also don't see the team adding to the bullpen either.<br /><br />I think the only real problem that needs addressing is the infield. Either a decent upgrade at 2nd or 3rd. Even better, upgrade both.sploorphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06278485961012000866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11215059.post-87838366445745641942009-12-30T20:18:17.375-06:002009-12-30T20:18:17.375-06:00I agree with most of what you wrote. I think that...I agree with most of what you wrote. I think that Blackburn has higher upside than you or most people seem to think. I am not so sure that Perkins will get moved. I can't imagine that the Twins will give away a guy who has been pretty decent major league starter, when healthy. I also can't imagine anyone giving up much for him, given his injury history and headcase history.<br /><br />You are right, I think the Twins would like a lefthander in the rotation. The Twins do seem to have some depth in starters if everyone is healthy and over whatever seemed to limit both Liriano and Perkins last year. While, I expect the Twins to go into spring training with the current cast, I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins weren't exploring the possibility of landing a high impact starter through trade.Jim Hnoreply@blogger.com